RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 14, 00-01-20

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 14, 20 January 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] FORMER ARMENIAN PREMIER SAYS PRESIDENT SHOULD RESIGN

[02] COMMUNIST LEADERS ADVOCATE ARMENIA'S ACCESSION TO RUSSIA-

[03] GEORGIAN, ABKHAZ PREMIERS MEET UNDER UN AUSPICES...

[04] ...AGREE ON ANTI-TERRORISM MEASURES

[05] KAZAKHSTAN, RUSSIA POSITIVELY ASSESS BILATERAL RELATIONS...

[06] ...SETTLE MUTUAL DEBTS

[07] KAZAKHSTAN TO INCREASE DEFENSE SPENDING?

[08] KAZAKHSTAN MIG SALE TRIAL AGAIN POSTPONED

[09] KAZAKH OPPOSITION FIGURE ALLEGES SYSTEMATIC HUMAN RIGHTS

[10] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT VOWS TO BRING YOUNGER GENERATION INTO

[11] TURKMENISTAN HOLDS TALKS WITH PIPELINE SCHEME PARTICIPANTS

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[12] FINAL CROATIAN ELECTION RESULTS

[13] CROATIA'S MUSLIMS TO ASK FOR DEPUTIES

[14] SERBIAN OPPOSITION INCHING TOWARD UNITY?

[15] ARKAN FOLLOWERS BLAME REGIME FOR HIS DEATH

[16] DEL PONTE URGES NATO TO ARREST KARADZIC

[17] DIFFERENCES SETTLED OVER KOSOVA PROTECTION CORPS?

[18] IMF APPROVES NEW TRANCHE FOR ALBANIA

[19] ROMANIA'S LIBERALS INITIATE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT

[20] FORMER ROMANIAN PRESIDENT WARNS AGAINST ATTEMPT TO BAR HIS

[21] UKRAINIAN DEFENSE MINISTER IN ROMANIA

[22] TIRASPOL AGREES TO OBSERVERS IN SECURITY ZONE

[23] UNHCR REPRESENTATIVE IN MOLDOVA SAYS 'NO CHECHEN TERRORISTS'

[C] END NOTE

[24] An Anniversary Of Unintended Consequences

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] FORMER ARMENIAN PREMIER SAYS PRESIDENT SHOULD RESIGN

who served as prime minister in 1990-1991, told a press

conference in Yerevan on 19 January that President Robert

Kocharian should step down voluntarily to prevent a further

deterioration in the political situation, which he described

as "anarchy," RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Manukian

argued that Kocharian has no power base and does not behave

as befits a head of state. He added that neither a referendum

on amending the constitution nor new parliamentary elections

would improve the worsening economic situation, according to

Armenpress. Manukian said his party will seek to ensure that

the new presidential poll is fair and to prevent unnamed

members of the present leadership from rigging the poll to

install their preferred candidate as head of state. Manukian,

who was defeated in both the 1996 and 1998 presidential

elections, did not say whether he would run in a new

election. LF

[02] COMMUNIST LEADERS ADVOCATE ARMENIA'S ACCESSION TO RUSSIA-

Newly-elected Armenian Communist Party First

Secretary Vladimir Darpinian told a press conference in

Yerevan that membership in the Russia-Belarus Union would

only strengthen Armenia's sovereignty, according to

"Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 20 January. The leader of the

party's parliament faction, Leonid Akopian, argued that

accession to the union would create new jobs in Armenia and

thus improve living standards. In 1997 the Armenian

Communists collected several hundred thousand signatures in

support of Armenia's accession to the Russia-Belarus Union.

LF

[03] GEORGIAN, ABKHAZ PREMIERS MEET UNDER UN AUSPICES...

Boden, the UN secretary-general's special representative in

Georgia, chaired a session in Tbilisi on 18-19 January of the

Coordinating Council for settling the Georgian-Abkhaz

conflict. The meeting was attended by Georgian Minister of

State Vazha Lortkipanidze, Abkhaz Premier Vyacheslav Tsugba,

the commander of the CIS peacekeeping forces deployed along

the border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia, and

representatives of the U.S., France, Russia, Germany, and the

U.K. The meeting had intended to focus on defining Abkhazia's

political status within Georgia, but Tsugba refused to do so,

saying that the population of Abkhazia had reaffirmed its

desire for independence in last year's referendum (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 5 October 1999). Tsugba, who met

separately on 18 January with Georgian President Eduard

Shevardnadze, nonetheless affirmed that Abkhazia wants to

resolve the conflict as soon as possible, Caucasus Press

reported. LF

[04] ...AGREE ON ANTI-TERRORISM MEASURES

on 19 January signed two sets of minutes of the proceedings

of working groups dealing with acts of terrorism in

Abkhazia's southernmost Gali Raion and with missing persons

and the disinterment and reburial of war dead, Caucasus Press

and Interfax reported. Under those minutes, the two sides

undertook to cooperate in investigating acts of terrorism in

Gali and in the reburial of 47 Georgians killed during the

1992-1993 war. They also reached agreement on resuming talks

on a peace settlement and on the repatriation of displaced

persons. Boden termed the session "constructive," but

Shevardnadze's international affairs advisor, Levan

Aleksidze, was less optimistic. He told Interfax that no

progress towards resolving the conflict will be possible

unless the Abkhaz "abandon the idea of creating a separate

Abkhaz state." LF

[05] KAZAKHSTAN, RUSSIA POSITIVELY ASSESS BILATERAL RELATIONS...

government delegation, Kazakhstan's Prime Minister

Qasymzhomart Toqaev held talks with Prime Minister and acting

President Vladimir Putin and with First Deputy Premier and

Finance Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, Russian agencies reported.

Kasyanov characterized bilateral relations as "on the

upgrade," and noted "definite progress" in the political

sphere, especially with regard to delimitation of the

Russian-Kazakh border. Putin, for his part, remarked upon the

absence of any complex political or economic problems between

the two countries. LF

[06] ...SETTLE MUTUAL DEBTS

agreements on 19 January whereby Russia will supply

Kazakhstan with civil aviation equipment in partial payment

for the lease of the Baikonor cosmodrome. Kazakhstan in turn

ceded to Russia's Unified Energy Systems a 50 percent stake

in the state thermal power plant in Ekibastuz in payment of

its outstanding $239 million debt for energy supplies from

Russia. LF

[07] KAZAKHSTAN TO INCREASE DEFENSE SPENDING?

national security advisor, Marat Tazhin, said on 19 January

that President Nursultan Nazarbaev supports his proposal to

increase defense spending in 2000 from the planned 0.78

percent of the budget to a minimum of 1 percent, Interfax

reported. Tazhin said the increase is needed to fund reform

of the armed forces and the building of an effective defense

system. Tazhin called for enacting legislation on government

defense spending that would create tax breaks for both state-

owned and private companies that manufacture equipment and

goods for the armed forces. He added that unspecified laws

should be amended to provide for stiffer penalties for

inciting social, ethnic, or religious enmity. LF

[08] KAZAKHSTAN MIG SALE TRIAL AGAIN POSTPONED

court proceedings against businessman Aleksandr Petrenko and

Armed Forces Chief of General Staff General Bakhytzhan

Ertaev, who are charged with arranging the illegal sale to

North Korea of 40 MiG fighter aircraft, has again been

postponed, RFE/RL's Almaty correspondent reported on 19

January. The trial should have resumed on 18 January, but

Ertaev is still hospitalized after suffering a minor heart

attack in court a week ago (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 January

2000). Defense lawyers for the two accused again said at a

press conference in Almaty on 19 January that their clients

are not guilty, RFE/RL's Almaty correspondent reported.

Petrenko's lawyer claimed that his client's life is in danger

as the persons responsible for the sale of the aircraft may

try to kill him lest he divulge further details of the deal.

LF

[09] KAZAKH OPPOSITION FIGURE ALLEGES SYSTEMATIC HUMAN RIGHTS

Speaking at a press conference in Almaty on 18

January, Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan member

Bauyrzhan Zharylqapov accused Kazakhstan's leadership,

including President Nazarbaev, of regularly violating the

country's laws and constitution, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau

reported the following day. Zharylqapov added that the human

rights of inmates of labor camps and jails in Kazakhstan are

violated "on a daily basis." LF

[10] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT VOWS TO BRING YOUNGER GENERATION INTO

Askar Akaev told some 800 students invited to a

belated New Year's party in Bishkek on 19 January that he has

proclaimed 2000 "the year of youth," and called for the

drafting of special policies and legislation of youth and

education, Interfax and RFE/RL's correspondent in the Kyrgyz

capital reported. Akaev vowed to bring "fresh blood" into the

state administration in the interests of expediting economic

reform. LF

[11] TURKMENISTAN HOLDS TALKS WITH PIPELINE SCHEME PARTICIPANTS

Turkey, together with U.S. special envoy on Caspian energy

issues John Wolf, met in Ashgabat on 18-19 January to discuss

a framework document for the planned Trans-Caspian gas export

pipeline, Interfax reported. The delegations also discussed

the agreements which each country will conclude separately

with the operators of the pipeline project, PSG and Royal

Dutch/Shell. Wolf said that Russia has also been invited to

participate in the project, for which the U.S.'s Ex-Im Bank

may provide some financial support. Cost of the project is

estimated at $2.5 billion. Wolf said that the disagreement

between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan over the amount of gas

that Azerbaijan will be permitted to export via the pipeline

was not discussed. Baku is reportedly demanding a 50 percent

share of the facility's annual throughput capacity of 30

billion cubic meters, whereas Turkmenistan is offering no

more than a 20 percent share. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[12] FINAL CROATIAN ELECTION RESULTS

commission in Zagreb released the final tally for the

parliamentary elections for the 151-seat lower house. The

main two-party opposition coalition of Social Democrats and

Social Liberals took 71 seats. The coalition of four smaller

parties allied to it won 24. The Croatian Democratic

Community (HDZ), which has held power since the first free

elections in 1990, holds only 46 seats. A right-wing

coalition will have five deputies, as will the country's

ethnic minorities. A spokesman for acting President Vlatko

Pavletic said that Pavletic will ask Social Democratic leader

Ivica Racan on 27 January to form a government. PM

[13] CROATIA'S MUSLIMS TO ASK FOR DEPUTIES

Croatian branch of the largest Bosnian Muslim political

party, namely Alija Izetbegovic's Party of Democratic Action

(SDA), said in Zagreb on 19 January that the SDA will ask the

new government to change the election law so that Muslims are

guaranteed representation in parliament, RFE/RL's South

Slavic Service reported. At present, the relatively large

Muslim and Slovenian minorities have no guaranteed

representation, while some smaller minorities of Central

European origin do. The spokesman added that SDA voters

supported the opposition against the HDZ in the parliamentary

vote and lean toward Stipe Mesic of the four-party coalition

in the 24 January presidential elections. In related news,

the weekly "Globus" published a poll that shows Mesic with 31

percent of the vote, followed by the two-party coalition's

Drazen Budisa with 23 percent. The HDZ's Mate Granic is a

distant third with 14 percent. PM

[14] SERBIAN OPPOSITION INCHING TOWARD UNITY?

the fractious Serbian opposition presented their plans for

concrete aid projects to officials of the EU and U.S. in

Budva on 19 January (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 January 2000).

EU ministers will meet in Brussels on 23 January to consider

the proposals. The Democratic Party's Zoran Djindjic told

Reuters that he hopes the EU will also consider lifting the

fuel embargo and flight ban against Serbia. In Belgrade, some

13 opposition representatives held their second meeting in

ten days to coordinate their activities (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 11 January 2000). Goran Svilanovic of the Serbian

Citizens' League told AP that the "opposition's disunity is a

thing of the past." The Serbian Renewal Movement's Vuk

Draskovic called on the West to support the opposition by

lifting sanctions. PM

[15] ARKAN FOLLOWERS BLAME REGIME FOR HIS DEATH

Ministry spokesman Rade Drobac told AP on 19 January that the

government had nothing to do with the recent murder of

warlord Zeljko Raznatovic "Arkan" (see "RFE/RL Balkan

Report," 18 January 2000). Drobac added that "we are not

interested in it.... Arkan was not a political figure." But

one "Degi," who is a member of Arkan's militia, said that

"there is no doubt that the [secret] service killed him.

Those [communist] monsters who have been killing this country

for 50 years have murdered my commander." Led by Arkan's

tearful wife Ceca, some 2,000 friends and followers attended

a commemoration ceremony for him in Belgrade. Elsewhere,

media attention has focused on the town of Loznica near the

Bosnian border, "Danas" reported on 20 January. There police

are watching the hospitalized Dusan Gavric, whom some

Belgrade media claim was an accomplice of Arkan's assassin.

PM

[16] DEL PONTE URGES NATO TO ARREST KARADZIC

is the chief prosecutor for the Hague-based war crimes

tribunal, said in Brussels on 19 January that the Atlantic

alliance should be more "aggressive" in catching war

criminals still on the loose. She singled out Bosnian Serb

leader Radovan Karadzic as the most important of them. Del

Ponte noted that he "still wanders around the country"

despite a public indictment going back several years. Jacques

Klein, who heads the UN's mission in Bosnia, said recently

that the continued failure to arrest Karadzic shows up the

"impotence of the West in the face of evil," Reuters

reported. He added that Western governments do not have the

political will to accept the casualties that a fight with

Karadzic's bodyguards would likely produce. PM

[17] DIFFERENCES SETTLED OVER KOSOVA PROTECTION CORPS?

of the UN administration in Kosova and of the former Kosova

Liberation Army (UCK) settled differences on 19 January

regarding the question of ranks in the incipient Kosova

Protection Corps (KPC), a UN spokeswoman said in Prishtina.

As the UN prefers, there will be no ranks as such. But as the

UCK wants, leaders will "wear insignias denoting their

seniority in the organization," Reuters reported. The

differences reflect the contrast between the UN view of the

KPC as a civilian work force and the UCK hope that it will be

the core of a new army. The ceremony to swear in 43 officers

was postponed from 19 to 21 January "for technical reasons."

PM

[18] IMF APPROVES NEW TRANCHE FOR ALBANIA

agreed in Washington on 19 January to approve a further $13

million credit for Albania, dpa reported. The IMF hailed what

it called that country's strong economic growth in 1999

despite the disruption caused by the crisis in Kosova. The

economy grew by about 8 percent, while inflation was near

zero. One IMF official added that the Albanian "authorities

will continue to face challenging tasks in implementing the

deep-seated reforms required to establish a fully functioning

market economy and to ensure its rapid growth." PM

[19] ROMANIA'S LIBERALS INITIATE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT

National Liberal Party (PNL) on 19 January submitted to the

Chamber of Deputies' Permanent Bureau a list of nearly

700,000 signatures collected in support of a constitutional

amendment, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The amendment

envisages changing article 41 in the basic document, to read

that "the state guarantees private property." Under the

existing constitution, the article says the state "protects"

private property. PNL chairman Mircea Ionescu-Quintus on the

same day said that his party wants the local elections to be

held "on time" and not later than "the first week in June."

MS

[20] FORMER ROMANIAN PRESIDENT WARNS AGAINST ATTEMPT TO BAR HIS

Party of Socialist Democracy in Romania Chairman Ion

Iliescu on 19 January said in Timisoara that the

Constitutional Court would "discredit itself" if it ruled

that he is barred from seeking a new term of office as

president, RFE/RL reported. Iliescu said that in 1996 the

court already ruled that his next term would not be a third

term in office, which is barred by the constitution. Iliescu

also said that "personally" he is not "particularly

motivated" to seek re-election and would step aside if

"someone at least equal to myself" would emerge as a credible

candidate. In related news, Alliance for Romania Chairman

Teodor Melescanu said he would "not be surprised" if

political adversaries attempt to "fabricate" a file ahead of

the 2000 elections proving that he collaborated with the

Securitate, but that "lies are always short-lived." MS

[21] UKRAINIAN DEFENSE MINISTER IN ROMANIA

Kuzmuk and his Romanian counterpart Victor Babiuc on 19

January agreed to finalize three bilateral accords by the end

of the year, envisaging measures to increase mutual

confidence, collaboration in procurement of materiel and

logistics, and the protection of secret information, Mediafax

reported. Babiuc said Ukraine is "more advanced than Romania"

in its preparations for setting up a battalion with Hungary

and Slovakia for intervention in case of natural disasters

and that Romania will try to "recuperate its lag behind" to

ensure the battalion is set up by the end of the year. MS

[22] TIRASPOL AGREES TO OBSERVERS IN SECURITY ZONE

Transdniester authorities on 18 January agreed "in principle"

to grant access to observers to their military bases in the

security zone that separates the belligerents in Moldova. The

refusal of the separatists to do so in the past had led to a

deadlock in the negotiations conducted under the auspices of

the joint Control Commission. George Roman, the commission's

Moldovan co-chairman, said that now the process of

demilitarization in the zone "can finally begin," since

previously Moldova had no way of checking whether the

agreement on the Transdniester evacuation of armored vehicles

would really be implemented, Infotag reported on 19 January.

MS

[23] UNHCR REPRESENTATIVE IN MOLDOVA SAYS 'NO CHECHEN TERRORISTS'

Oldrich Andrysek, the UN High

Commissioner for Refugees representative to Moldova, said on

19 January that he agrees with President Petru Lucinschi that

no terrorists from Chechnya must be granted refugee status in

Moldova and that he is convinced that "not a single

terrorist" will get that status. Andrysek rejected

Lucinschi's accusation that his organization is "exceeding

its authority" in Moldova. "We are present in this republic

at the invitation of the Moldovan government and with regard

to people seeking refugee status we act in accordance to

international law," he said. Andrysek also said that in

January alone 120 Chechens have applied for receiving the

status from the UNHCR and said he does not think any of

these, who had been checked many times on their long journey,

could be terrorists. MS

[C] END NOTE

[24] An Anniversary Of Unintended Consequences

Moscow's military intervention in Baku ten years ago

this week exacerbated the three things it was supposed to

quell: ethnic unrest between Azerbaijanis and Armenians, the

influence of Islam in the Soviet Union, and support for

independence movements across the non-Russian portions of the

USSR.

As such, the events in Baku a decade ago call attention

to the unintended consequences which characterized so many

aspects of Mikhail Gorbachev's reign as the last Soviet

leader. And they serve as an object lesson of the ways in

which the incautious use of military force by any government

to address political problems can backfire.

But even more, especially when viewed from the

perspective of today, the gap between what Moscow said it

wanted to do in Azerbaijan at that time and what it actually

achieved suggests some almost eerie parallels between what

the current Russian government says it is doing in Chechnya

and what its actions there may ultimately lead to.

For that reason, if for no other, the events of January

1990 in the southern Caucasus are currently attracting more

attention in the Caucasus, in Russia, and in the West than

might otherwise be the case.

The actual history is both complex and in some places

still very much actively disputed.

On 15 January 1991, President Gorbachev approved the

airlift of some 11,000 military and security troops to

Azerbaijan. The Soviet leader said he was taking this step to

stop escalating violence between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

Violence between these two nations had been percolating

since 1988, but it flared up at the end of 1989 and the

beginning of 1990, following Baku's decision to blockade the

railroad leading into Armenia and Yerevan's declaration that

Nagorno-Karabakh should be integrated into the Armenian

economy and that Armenian laws took precedence over Soviet

ones.

These actions in turn sparked demonstrations in

Azerbaijan, some of which turned violent, and they led to the

formation of volunteer militias and self-defense forces on

both sides. In the face of this escalating violence,

Gorbachev on 17 January ordered its troops to open fire in

self-defense and to protect civilians.

But this measure, designed to be intimidating and to

limit the violence, had just the opposite effect. Over the

next week, hundreds of people were killed--the exact numbers

remain a matter of dispute--and Moscow upped the ante by

introducing still more of its forces into Azerbaijan.

Moscow's action initially enjoyed the support of major

Western countries--the United States, for example, said that

it recognized Moscow's right to use force to protect its

citizens and to oppose "age-old tensions"--but that support

ebbed as the violence continued.

At home, this process was far quicker. Gorbachev soon

faced mounting opposition from Russians who questioned the

value of what he was doing. During the Soviet leader's visit

to his native Stavropol Krai on 19 January, for example, one

Russian woman told him that "I won't give you my son" for

such campaigns in the Caucasus.

Non-Russians were even more outraged by this action.

Most saw it as a reversal of the cautious approach Gorbachev

had adopted following the massacre of demonstrators in the

Georgian capital of Tbilisi in April 1989. But an increasing

number decided that such a use of force meant that autonomy

within the Soviet Union was no longer an attractive option

for them and that outright independence might be a better

choice.

The Azerbaijan SSR Supreme Soviet indicated on 22

January, nearly a week after Soviet forces arrived, that the

republic might seek to secede from the USSR. That move was

followed within months by equally assertive actions from the

Caucasus to the Baltics.

Faced with this challenge and hoping to send a message

far beyond the borders of Azerbaijan, Soviet forces sealed

the borders of that republic, imposed a state of emergency,

and sought to hide what they were doing by denying entry to

foreign journalists.

That show of force initially appeared very successful.

For a few weeks, force appeared to have gained the upper

hand. But in less than two years, Azerbaijan was independent,

and the Soviet Union was no more.

At least part of the reason for that dramatic

acceleration of the pace of history in Azerbaijan and

elsewhere was the misplaced effort of those in Moscow who

sought to slow it down.

20-01-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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