RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 2, 00-01-04

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 2, 4 January 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] FELLOW PRESIDENTS COMMENT ON YELTSIN'S RESIGNATION...

[02] ...AND PUTIN'S ELEVATION TO PRESIDENCY

[03] AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION DEMANDS NEW MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

[04] KAZAKHSTAN ALLOCATES SPECIAL PREMIUMS TO NEW YEAR BABIES

[05] ANOTHER KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY FACES ELECTION RESTRICTIONS

[06] TAJIK OPPOSITION PARTIES HOLD PRE-ELECTION CONGRESSES

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[07] CROATIAN OPPOSITION SWEEPS TO VICTORY

[08] BIG TURNOUT AMONG CROATS ABROAD

[09] BOSNIAN BORDER POLICE WAITING FOR DUTY

[10] GENERAL JACKSON REJECTS CRITICISM OF BRITISH FORCES

[11] REINHARDT PRAISES BELGIAN KFOR

[12] ALBANIAN EMIGRATION BALANCE

[13] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT SAYS ANTI-SEMITISM 'ISOLATED AND

[14] RUSSIA SAYS YELTSIN'S DEPARTURE WILL NOT INFLUENCE

[C] END NOTE

[15] Croatian Opposition Confronts Challenge Of Governing

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] FELLOW PRESIDENTS COMMENT ON YELTSIN'S RESIGNATION...

Russian President Yeltsin stepped down "because he was unable

to work any more," according to Turan on 3 January. Georgian

President Eduard Shevardnadze on 31 December praised

Yeltsin's move as courageous, adding that he "made a unique

contribution to democratic reforms in Russia," according to

Caucasus Press. A spokesman for Kyrgyzstan's President Askar

Akaev told RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau on 31 December that

Yeltsin's move was "the right one," and will strengthen

democratic institutions in Russia. Tajikistan's Imomali

Rakhmonov said Yeltsin made "a resolute and wise move,

opening the way to the young," according to ITAR-TASS on 4

January. Uzbekistan's Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov

termed Yeltsin's resignation the only correct decision in the

circumstances, ITAR-TASS reported on 3 January. LF

[02] ...AND PUTIN'S ELEVATION TO PRESIDENCY

Putin held telephone conversations on 3 January with Aliev,

Rakhmonov, and Uzbek President Islam Karimov, according to

ITAR-TASS. Neither Aliev nor Shevardnadze publicly commented

on Putin's elevation to the post of acting president, but

both expressed the hope that bilateral relations with Russia

will now improve. Akaev and Rakhmonov both sent messages of

congratulation to Putin. Rakhmonov also expressed confidence

that cooperation between Tajikistan and Russia will continue,

according to ITAR-TASS. Karimov on 3 January said he believes

the expectation of many people both in Russia and abroad that

Putin will restore Russia to its former superpower status are

entirely justified. LF

[03] AZERBAIJAN'S OPPOSITION DEMANDS NEW MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

Azerbaijani opposition parties, including Musavat and the

Azerbaijan National Independence Party but not the Azerbaijan

Popular Front, have issued a joint statement calling for new

municipal elections, Turan reported on 3 January. The

statement notes that the 12 December 1999 elections should

have taken place two years earlier according to the

constitution. It added that opposition proposals were ignored

during the process of drafting the electoral legislation. The

statement further called for criminal proceedings to be

brought against officials and members of electoral

commissions who either committed procedural violations or

turned a blind eye to them during the election campaign. LF

[04] KAZAKHSTAN ALLOCATES SPECIAL PREMIUMS TO NEW YEAR BABIES

first 2,000 infants born in Kazakhstan in 2000 will receive

allowances of 100,000 tenge ($700) apiece from the country's

Demographic Fund, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau reported on 4

January. The allowances are part of a program to boost the

birthrate and reverse the decline in the country's

population, which has fallen from 17 million to 14.9 million

since 1991. But the effectiveness of such incentives may be

undercut by the government's decision to reform the medical

system by shifting the onus of funding medical facilities

from the central government to the regional administrations

as of 1 January. LF

[05] ANOTHER KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTY FACES ELECTION RESTRICTIONS

the opposition Ar-Namys (Conscience) Party against a ruling

by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) that the party does

not qualify to nominate candidates for the party-list seats

in the 20 February election to the lower chamber of

Kyrgyzstan's new parliament, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau

reported. The Justice Ministry had advised the CEC not to

register the party, arguing that the electoral code requires

parties to be registered at least one year in advance of an

election date in order to participate. Ar-Namys was

registered in August. But a spokesman for Ar-Namys argued

that the electoral code was based on the 1991 Law on Public

Associations, and that the Law on Political Parties adopted

in 1999 does not impose any comparable restrictions on

election participation. LF

[06] TAJIK OPPOSITION PARTIES HOLD PRE-ELECTION CONGRESSES

on 31 December, party chairman Said Abdullo Nuri affirmed the

party's commitment to building a fair and democratic society

and observing the constraints of Tajikistan's Constitution in

its efforts to create an Islamic state, Asia Plus-Blitz

reported on 3 January. In an allusion to the November 1999

presidential elections, Nuri noted that his party had

acquired experience in election campaigning despite

"artificial obstacles created by some bureaucrats." He said

the IRP is the sole realistic opponent to the ruling People's

Democratic Party of Tajikistan. Delegates to the congress

approved a list of 22 candidates who will contend the 63

seats in the new lower house of parliament to be elected on

27 February. In other news, the Communist Party of Tajikistan

named 22 candidates for the poll at a 27 December congress,

according to Asia Plus-Blitz. In all, six parties will

compete. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[07] CROATIAN OPPOSITION SWEEPS TO VICTORY

results of the 3 January parliamentary elections show that

the coalition of Social Democrats (SDP) and Social Liberals

(HSLS) will likely take 71 seats in the approximately 150-

seat lower house (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 January 2000).

Their allies in a coalition of four smaller parties appear to

have won 24 seats. The governing Croatian Democratic

Community (HDZ) will have 40 seats. Reports suggest that the

HDZ is leading in only one of the 10 electoral districts.

Under the system of proportional representation, four seats

will go to tiny right-wing parties. The turnout was about 78

percent. The SDP's Ivica Racan, who is expected to be the new

prime minister, said: "We shall do our best to justify the

voters' confidence," AP reported. HDZ leaders Mate Granic and

Ivic Pasalic conceded defeat and promised to provide a robust

opposition (see "End Note" below). PM

[08] BIG TURNOUT AMONG CROATS ABROAD

Croatian citizens cast their ballots abroad without any

serious incidents or problems, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported on 3 January (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 January

2000). Turnouts were large across Bosnia-Herzegovina, except

in Banja Luka. "Vecernji list" reported that 120,000 persons

in Bosnia took part in the vote. In federal Yugoslavia, large

numbers of people cast their ballots in Belgrade and Kotor in

particular. The polling place in Ljubljana ran out of ballot

papers because an unexpectedly large number of Croats

vacationing in Slovenia turned up to vote. PM

[09] BOSNIAN BORDER POLICE WAITING FOR DUTY

border police completed their training course in Austria on 3

January, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. They include

10 Muslims, 10 Serbs, and 10 Croats. They cannot take up

their duties patrolling the frontier until the joint

parliament approves their mandate. Bosnian Serb politicians

in particular are reluctant to allow persons who are not from

their own ethnic group to take up border duty in the

Republika Srpska. Most Bosnian Serbs interpret the Dayton

peace agreement primarily as an affirmation of the

sovereignty of the Republika Srpska rather than as the re-

establishment of a unified Bosnia. PM

[10] GENERAL JACKSON REJECTS CRITICISM OF BRITISH FORCES

Sir Mike Jackson, who commanded NATO forces during their

entry into Kosova in June, denied charges in a reported

British government study that British forces in Kosova

suffered from poor command and control structures and were

badly equipped. Jackson told the BBC on 4 January that the

report, excerpts of which the BBC broadcast the previous day,

described a situation that was "difficult to recognize from

my experience." He stressed that British forces would have

been able to launch a successful ground assault on Serbian

forces had they been ordered to do so. The report suggested

that British troops had to borrow equipment from other NATO

forces because their own was unreliable, and that their

communications were so insecure that Serbian monitors "could

hear every word." AP reported from London that the study was

designed to be as critical as possible as part of a standard

review process following any British military operation. PM

[11] REINHARDT PRAISES BELGIAN KFOR

succeeded Jackson as KFOR commander, on 3 January visited the

1,000-strong Belgian contingent that patrols Kosova's

northern frontier with Serbia. He told the Belgians they

"have one of the most challenging and busy boundary control

operations. I am very pleased with the professionalism and

proficiency in which they carry out their duties," AP

reported. Critics have charged that Serbian paramilitaries

and other forces continue to pass between Serbia and Kosova,

which Serbian forces were supposed to have left in June under

an agreement with NATO. PM

[12] ALBANIAN EMIGRATION BALANCE

Cooperation and Trade said in a report issued in Tirana on 3

January that more than 15 percent of Albania's 3.2 million

people have left the impoverished country during the past 10

years, dpa reported. About 400,000 Albanian emigrants are

currently in Greece, while 150,000 others are in Italy. About

50,000 have gone to Germany, the U.S., Canada, Switzerland,

France, England, Turkey, or Belgium. Much of the emigration

has been legal, but large numbers of illegal migrants have

gone to Italy and Greece. The often difficult living and

working conditions of the Albanians in Greece have been an

occasional source of tension between the two countries. Many

Greeks blame Albanians for crime-related problems. PM

[13] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT SAYS ANTI-SEMITISM 'ISOLATED AND

Speaking at the Yad-Vashem Holocaust

Memorial in Jerusalem, President Emil Constantinescu said

he wishes Romania were in the position to claim that it

defended "all its Jews" during the Holocaust.

Unfortunately, he said, this is not so. Only some of them

were protected, while others had to suffer "persecutions

and humiliations" and others yet were "deported and...fell

victim to pogroms" under the "Ion Antonescu dictatorship."

Constantinescu said he wanted to once more express his

"profound regret" for those times, as he did back in 1997.

But he denied that anti-Semitism plays any role in his

country today. He said Romania's authorities and civil

society "categorically reject" it and that "anti-Semitic

voices" are a "very isolated" phenomenon, present

"particularly in the media." The authorities, he said, "are

investigating" those responsible for publishing such

articles. MS

[14] RUSSIA SAYS YELTSIN'S DEPARTURE WILL NOT INFLUENCE

The Russian Foreign

Ministry says the resignation of President Yeltsin will

have no influence on the position of Moscow toward the

Transdniester conflict, Flux reported on 3 January. The

ministry sent a statement to the separatist authorities in

the Transdniester explaining that Russia will continue to

be a mediator in the conflict and a "guarantor" of the

implementation of the understandings that have been reached

so far. The ministry reiterated Moscow's position that the

withdrawal of Russian forces from the Transdniester must be

"co-ordinated" with the acceptance of a common

understanding on the special status of the Transdniester.

MS

[C] END NOTE

[15] Croatian Opposition Confronts Challenge Of Governing

The two Croatian opposition coalitions appear headed for

a landslide win over the Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ),

which has held power for nearly 10 years. Once in office, the

coalitions will have their work cut out for them.

The 3 January parliamentary elections were remarkable

for at least two reasons (see "RFE/RL Newsline" above).

First, they mark the end of the HDZ's long grip on power

through most of Croatia. During the past decade, opposition

parties won control of Istria and several cities, but the

HDZ's control of the central government was complete. For the

first time since gaining independence in 1991, Croats will

now experience a peaceful transition of authority to the

opposition (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 16 November 1999).

Second, as some pre-election polls anticipated, the

winners' margin of victory was a large one. Voters clearly

wanted a change and failed to be swayed by the HDZ's appeals

for a sympathy vote in honor of the late President Franjo

Tudjman, who died in December. Preliminary returns suggest

that the two coalitions will have approximately 95 out of

about 150 seats in the lower house. The largest coalition,

which consists of the Social Democrats (SDP) and the Croatian

Social Liberal Party (HSLS), seems likely to take 71 seats.

The SDP's Ivica Racan is set to head the new government,

while the HSLS's Drazen Budisa will be his coalition's

candidate in the 24 January presidential vote to replace

Tudjman. The smaller coalition of four centrist parties will

likely win 24 legislative seats. The HDZ's share has fallen

from 75 in the 1995 elections to a more modest 40 this time.

The margin of victory could prove a poisoned

chalice for the coalitions, however, because the voters will

expect a government with such a strong mandate to deliver on

its pre-election promises. These involve social and economic

progress, democratization, and putting an end to

international isolation.

The key issue for most voters was the need to

improve the standard of living in a country with an

unemployment rate of more than 20 percent and a monthly per

capita income of about $400. Tudjman's election slogan

earlier in the decade was "from victory to prosperity," but

it has proven empty for most Croats, including many veterans

of the war for independence. Once the war ended in 1995 and

people's attention turned increasingly to economic concerns,

the SDP began a steady rise from the margins of political

life to become the largest opposition party. Its platform

centers on bread-and-butter issues and shuns nationalist

rhetoric; the SDP is the only major party that does not

include the word "Croatian" in its name.

The second area in which voters will have great

expectations of the new government will be in

democratization. As was the case in post-Meciar Slovakia, the

new Croatian government has pledged to investigate the many

dubious privatizations carried out by its predecessor. A

major source of resentment against the HDZ was the popular

perception that party insiders grew ever richer at a time

when most Croats had difficulty making ends meet. The

coalitions have pledged to clean out these Augean stables.

The new government has also promised to end

political manipulation of the media--particularly of state-

run television--and of the intelligence services. Tudjman's

imperial presidency, moreover, will be reduced in scale, and

many of his powers transferred to parliament in a move that

even the HDZ has pledged to support.

The victorious coalitions will also likely examine

the constitutional provisions that give full citizenship to

ethnic Croats in Bosnia-Herzegovina, who are also citizens of

that republic. The central issue is the provision granting

the Herzegovinians--who include many hard-line nationalists--

the right to vote in Croatian elections. By curbing or

eliminating that right, the new government would deny the HDZ

a large block of electors. The government would also gain

favor with the international community, which regards the HDZ

as bent on realizing Tudjman's dream of a greater Croatia at

Bosnia's expense. It was no accident that one of the first

reactions to the coalitions' victory came from prominent

Bosnian Muslim politician Mirza Hajic, who said: "That is

good news for Bosnia and Herzegovina."

This leads to the third area in which the new

government will seek to make good on its promises, namely the

need to end Croatia's international isolation on account of

the HDZ's policies on democratization and on Bosnia. Nowhere

was the isolation more painfully evident than at Tudjman's

funeral, at which only Turkey was represented by its head of

state; most Western countries sent only their ambassadors.

When Slovenia and Croatia became independent in 1991, they

were at the same place on the road to Euro-Atlantic

integration. Now Slovenia is at the forefront of most post-

communist countries in this respect, but Croatia has slid

behind even Albania and Macedonia. Those two Balkan countries

are in NATO's Partnership for Peace Program, which Croatia

has not been invited to join.

But to the extent that the coalitions institute

democratic reforms at home and cut ties to the Herzegovinian

nationalists, they are likely to find a quick and warm

response from Washington and the EU. Encouraging words have

already come from those quarters. And the large diaspora can

serve as a bridge between Croatia and its Western allies.

Additional pitfalls nonetheless remain. The

coalitions will need to remain united and not fall prey to

squabbling among themselves, as has happened in post-Meciar

Slovakia. This will be all the more important if the HDZ's

moderate and popular Mate Granic defeats Budisa for the

presidency, and if the fractious HDZ itself remains united.

The new government will also need to define a position on

allowing ethnic Serbian refugees to return that will please

both the international community and the voters. Precious

little of this will be easy.

04-01-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article