RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 244, 99-12-17

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 244, 17 December 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIA, WORLD BANK CLOSE TO AGREEMENT ON FINAL 1999 TRANCHE

[02] KARABAKH ARMY COMMANDER FIRED

[03] MORE CRITICISM EXPRESSED OF AZERBAIJAN'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

[04] GEORGIA COMPLAINS TO UN OVER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION...

[05] ...OFFERS TO HOST OSCE CHECHEN TALKS

[06] KAZAKHSTAN FEARS EXCLUSION FROM BAKU-CEYHAN PROJECT

[07] TWO FORMER KYRGYZ PREMIERS IMPLICATED IN CORRUPTION CASE

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[08] SERBIAN COMMANDER REBUKES MONTENEGRO

[09] THACI SAYS SERBS HAVE PLACE IN POWER-SHARING

[10] KOSOVAR LAWYER RELEASED AFTER RANSOM PAID

[11] KFOR STEPS UP PATROLS

[12] EU OIL REACHES SERBIAN CITIES

[13] HAGUE INVESTIGATORS INTERVIEW SREBRENICA SUSPECTS

[14] WINTER WEATHER CAUSES HAVOC IN BOSNIA

[15] HATS IN THE RING IN CROATIA

[16] CROATIAN NEWS DISTRIBUTION WORKERS STAGE WARNING STRIKE

[17] ISARESCU OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED ROMANIA'S PREMIER...

[18] ... AND NEW CABINET TO BE RESTRUCTURED

[19] CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS OVER IN ROMANIA?

[20] MOLDOVAN PREMIER-DESIGNATE ON GOVERNMENT LINE-UP

[21] BULGARIAN SCHOOLS TO OFFER CLASSES ON ISLAM

[C] END NOTE

[22] RUSSIA GOES TO THE POLLS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIA, WORLD BANK CLOSE TO AGREEMENT ON FINAL 1999 TRANCHE

Yerevan on 16 December after talks with government ministers

the previous day that the final $25 million tranche of a $65

million World Bank credit could be released within a couple

of weeks provided that problems with the fulfillment of the

1999 budget are resolved, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported.

That tranche is needed to cover the 1999 budget deficit. The

delay in releasing it is believed to be due to the failure to

meet the fourth-quarter target for revenue collection. LF

[02] KARABAKH ARMY COMMANDER FIRED

of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, fired Samvel

Babayan, commander of the Karabakh Defense Army, on 17

December, RFE/RL's Stepanakert correspondent reported. Two

days earlier, a group of senior generals of the Defense Army

of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic issued a

statement accusing Ghukasian of exacerbating political

tensions, and calling on both the president and Babayan to

resign, Noyan Tapan and RFE/RL's Stepanakert correspondent

reported. Armenian Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutiunian,

who traveled to Karabakh on 15 December, pledged support for

Ghukasian the following day (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report,"

Vol. 2, No. 50, 17 December 1999). An unknown number of

Karabakh parliamentary deputies and the heads of the

enclave's administrative districts issued similar statements

on 17 December, according to Noyan Tapan. LF

[03] MORE CRITICISM EXPRESSED OF AZERBAIJAN'S MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

December called for the results of the 12 December municipal

elections in the city's constituencies to be annulled because

of irregularities in the vote count, Turan reported. The same

day, the party's newspaper, "Yeni Musavat," reported that

more than 5,000 voters in one constituency in Yasamal Raion

have asked President Heidar Aliev and Azerbaijan's

Constitutional Court to investigate irregularities during the

voting. "Hurriyet" on 16 December reported that a group of

residents of Belakan Raion staged a demonstration to protest

the abduction by members of the executive branch of the

chairman of the local electoral commission. And in

Washington, the National Democratic Institute characterized

the poll as "quite poor," adding that turnout was lower than

the 25 percent minimum required by the election law for the

poll to be valid, Turan reported. LF

[04] GEORGIA COMPLAINS TO UN OVER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION...

letter to the UN Security Council, Georgian Foreign Minister

Irakli Menagharishvili expressed the Georgian government's

concern over continuing claims in the Russian media that

Georgia is abetting the Chechen resistance, Caucasus Press

reported on 17 December. Menagharishvili said those

allegations are directed at drawing Georgia into the

conflict. He again affirmed that as a sovereign country,

Georgia will not allow anyone to use its territory to launch

aggression against a neighboring state. He added that

monitoring by OSCE observers of the Georgian-Chechen border

should preclude any further escalation of the situation. LF

[05] ...OFFERS TO HOST OSCE CHECHEN TALKS

conference in Tbilisi on 16 December, Georgian presidential

spokesman Vakhtang Abashidze said Tbilisi is ready to host a

meeting between Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov, Russian

Minister for Emergency Situations Sergei Shoigu, and OSCE

Chairman In Office Knut Vollebaek, Caucasus Press reported.

Abashidze explained Georgia's interest in resolving the

Chechen conflict in terms of expediting the repatriation of

several thousand Chechen refugees. LF

[06] KAZAKHSTAN FEARS EXCLUSION FROM BAKU-CEYHAN PROJECT

journalists in Baku on 16 December that Azerbaijan's state

oil company SOCAR has ignored Kazakhstan's request to be

acquainted with the content of framework agreements signed on

the sidelines of the OSCE Istanbul summit that deal with the

use of the planned Baku-Ceyhan export pipeline for Caspian

oil. Kazakhstan signed another document in Istanbul

confirming its interest in exporting some crude via that

pipeline. The Georgian government has already called for at

least one of the framework documents to be amended (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 8 December 1999). LF

[07] TWO FORMER KYRGYZ PREMIERS IMPLICATED IN CORRUPTION CASE

parliament voted on 16 December to ask the government to

begin an investigation into the possible involvement of

former Prime Ministers Apas Jumagulov and Kubanychbek

Jumaliev in a major embezzlement case, RFE/RL's Bishkek

bureau reported. The case in question is that of Shalkar

Jaisanbaev, former head of the state company

Kyrgyzgasmunaizat, who fled Kyrgyzstan in December 1998 after

embezzling some 4.8 billion soms (then worth approximately

$200 million). Jumagulov served as premier from December 1993

until March 1998 and is currently Kyrgyz ambassador to

Germany, while Jumaliev, who was premier from March to

December 1998, is governor of Jalal-Abad Oblast. Former

Finance Ministers Marat Sultanov and Taalai Koichumanov are

also suspected of involvement in the case. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[08] SERBIAN COMMANDER REBUKES MONTENEGRO

Ojdanic, who heads the Yugoslav army general staff and is an

indicted war criminal, said in an open letter to Montenegrin

Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic on 16 December that the

military will do whatever is necessary to defend the country

and its territory (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 December 1999).

He urged Vujanovic to order the Montenegrin police "to return

to their normal activities" ahead of a possible joint

inspection by the federal and Montenegrin authorities of "the

situation in the field" at Podgorica airport, RFE/RL's South

Slavic Service reported. In Belgrade, Serbian Deputy Prime

Minister Vojislav Seselj accused Montenegrin President Milo

Djukanovic of trying to provoke a "civil war" through what

Seselj called "separatist activities." PM

[09] THACI SAYS SERBS HAVE PLACE IN POWER-SHARING

who headed the former Kosova Liberation Army and is now a

member of the UN's new power-sharing council, said in

Sarajevo that Serbs and other minorities have their place in

Kosova's new political structure (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15

December 1999). He urged Serbian leaders to end their boycott

of the body. In Belgrade, a spokesman for Yugoslav President

Slobodan Milosevic's Socialist Party said that UN's Bernard

Kouchner should be replaced because his council constitutes

"collaboration with Albanian terrorists." PM

[10] KOSOVAR LAWYER RELEASED AFTER RANSOM PAID

kidnappers freed Kosovar human rights lawyer Teki Bokshi on

16 December after his family paid a ransom (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 6 December 1999). It is unknown how much money

changed hands, but the kidnappers had sought $60,000, AP

reported. Leading Serbian human rights activist Natasa Kandic

said the kidnappers could have been former policemen who are

no longer in service. She said the official police had

nothing to do with Bokshi's disappearance. Jiri Dienstbier,

who is the UN's special rapporteur for human rights in the

former Yugoslavia, wants an explanation from the authorities

about Bokshi's disappearance. PM

[11] KFOR STEPS UP PATROLS

"stepped up" patrols in that city on 16 December with the aim

of protecting teenagers of either sex from being abducted by

prostitution rings. The criminals then take the young people

to Germany or Italy. A KFOR spokesman told Reuters that the

abductions are currently "the biggest problem we have." The

"Frankfurter Rundschau" wrote that "gangsters and mobsters

run the province under the UN's nose." PM

[12] EU OIL REACHES SERBIAN CITIES

oil supplied by the EU reached the opposition-run towns of

Nis and Pirot on 16 December (See "RFE/RL Newsline," 15

December 1999). An EU spokesman told Reuters that "everything

went smoothly." PM

[13] HAGUE INVESTIGATORS INTERVIEW SREBRENICA SUSPECTS

Bosnian Serb government spokesman confirmed in Banja Luka on

16 December that a team of experts from the Hague-based war

crimes tribunal is in the Bosnian Serb capital (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 16 December 1999). The spokesman told Reuters that

"the tribunal's investigators held talks in Banja Luka with

two Bosnian Serb army officers suspected of having been

involved in Srebrenica." Serbian forces are believed to have

killed at least 6,000 mainly Muslim males from Srebrenica

after taking that Bosnian town in 1995. It is believed to be

the largest single massacre in Europe since World War II. PM

[14] WINTER WEATHER CAUSES HAVOC IN BOSNIA

continue to cover large areas of Bosnia, forcing school and

airport closings, blocking roads, and knocking down power

lines. The authorities in the mainly Muslim and Croat

federation may call a state of emergency later in the day, AP

reported from Sarajevo on 17 December. In Herzegovina, heavy

rains caused the Neretva River to flood its banks, and

several pedestrian foot-bridges near the former Ottoman stone

bridge were washed away. Some 400 persons were evacuated to

nearby Medjugorje. PM

[15] HATS IN THE RING IN CROATIA

said in Rijeka on 16 December that he wants presidential

elections to take place on 23 January, "Jutarnji list"

reported. Foreign Minister Mate Granic of the governing

Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) told "Vecernji list" that

he is willing to run for the presidency, (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 15 December 1999). He added that he believes that

the intelligence services should be accountable to the

parliament and not to the president. Public opinion polls

suggest that Granic is the only possible HDZ candidate who

could easily defeat any challenger from the opposition.

Elsewhere, Jadranko Crnic, who is a former president of the

Constitutional Court, said he is willing to stand for the

presidency if all six opposition parties agree to back him,

RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM

[16] CROATIAN NEWS DISTRIBUTION WORKERS STAGE WARNING STRIKE

2,800 employees of the state-run Tisak company staged a two-

hour warning strike on 16 December to demand that the

government bail out the debt-ridden firm. Tisak is the

country's major distributor of newspapers and magazines. PM

[17] ISARESCU OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED ROMANIA'S PREMIER...

televised speech on 16 December, President Emil

Constantinescu announced he has officially designated

National Bank governor Mugur Isarescu as Romania's next

premier. Constantinescu said he is doing so "in response to

the wish of many citizens" and because Romania needs "a

good negotiator" and an economic expert to achieve EU

accession. That task, he said, would be best undertaken by

a premier who has no party affiliation, particularly in

electoral year 2000. He said Isarescu will present his team

to parliamentary commissions beginning on 20 December and

expressed the hope that parliament will vote confidence in

it later next week. MS

[18] ... AND NEW CABINET TO BE RESTRUCTURED

the government will have an Economic Council to coordinate

the activities all economic ministries and a new Ministry

of Public Administration will be set up to coordinate

legislation in this sphere and "overcome bureaucracy."

Constantinescu also announced the Department for European

Integration will be abolished and its functions transferred

to the Foreign Ministry to ensure that Romania "speaks in

one voice." MS

[19] CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS OVER IN ROMANIA?

groups of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic

(PNTCD) on 16 December decided to "partly lift" the

punishment handed down two days earlier on outgoing Premier

Radu Vasile. While it was not explained what is meant by

"partly," National Peasant Party Christian Democratic

Chairman Ion Diaconescu said Vasile could resume his party

functions "if he so wishes." According to as yet

unconfirmed reports, Senate Chairman Petre Roman has

mediated an agreement whereby Vasile would return to his

position as PNTCD secretary-general in return for resigning

as premier, thereby resolving the country's constitutional

crisis, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Vasile opponent

and PNTCD Deputy Chairman Nicolae Ionescu-Galbeni

indirectly confirmed that deal when he said he has resigned

to protest "the triumph of hooligans." MS

[20] MOLDOVAN PREMIER-DESIGNATE ON GOVERNMENT LINE-UP

Braghis told journalists on 16 December that in order to

prevent the legislature interfering in the process of

forming the government and later in the cabinet's

activities, he will not appoint parliamentary deputies as

ministers. He said the cabinet will consist of "competent

people, selected on the basis of professionalism," Infotag

reported. He also said he will not change the program of

Ion Sturza's outgoing cabinet, in whose drafting he has

participated. Bragis said his cabinet will continue to

implement reform and pursue integration into European

structures. MS

[21] BULGARIAN SCHOOLS TO OFFER CLASSES ON ISLAM

Ministry on 16 December announced that Bulgarian schools will

begin offering classes on Islam next year in areas where

there is a strong Muslim minority, AFP reported. Since 1997,

classes on the Bible have been available to pupils whose

parents wish them to have such instruction. MS

[C] END NOTE

[22] RUSSIA GOES TO THE POLLS

When Russians vote for a new State Duma on 19

December, the fate of various parties and movements will

be less important than whether the process can begin to

change the rules by which Russian politics is played.

During the campaign, there has been little

discussion of the serious issues facing the country.

Instead, the central drama has been the competition

between two elite coalitions of politicians, oligarchs,

and regional leaders. One of those coalitions, Unity

(Edinstvo), has the backing of the Kremlin. The other,

Fatherland-All Russia (OVR), is led by former Prime

Minister Yevgenii Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yurii

Luzhkov. At stake are vast financial resources,

political power, and, ultimately, the Russian presidency

when Boris Yeltsin's term expires next year.

That elections in Russia are now routine is a

healthy sign. Unfortunately, the campaign has witnessed

the same unsavory characteristics that marred earlier

electoral contests and, indeed, Russian politics as a

whole for much of the Yeltsin era.

Among those characteristics is the criminalization

of the political process. A large number of candidates

who allegedly have committed illegal acts or have ties

to organized crime are seeking election. Victory will

ensure their immunity from prosecution. In addition, the

federal law governing election finances requires

candidates for the Duma to report their annual income,

its sources, and the total value of their possessions.

In fact, many wealthy candidates vastly understated

their income, without fear of punishment. Even when the

government has tried to enforce election laws, it has

done so inconsistently, disqualifying some candidates on

technicalities while allowing other apparent violators

to remain on the ballot.

Another characteristic is the weakness of political

parties. Most parties sponsoring candidates are little

more than clubs clustered around leading politicians,

with little large-scale organization. Only the Communist

Party, which has several hundred thousand members, most

of whom are pensioners, has strong grass-roots support.

And then there is the heavy politicization of the

media. The print and electronic media have largely

reflected the political views of the coalitions who

control them. Muck-raking by the Kremlin-controlled

Russian Public Television (ORT) network and the pro-OVR

station NTV has done little to enlighten the voters,

although attacks by ORT anchor Sergei Dorenko on the

Moscow mayor have almost single-handedly caused a

significant drop in support for Primakov and Luzhkov's

movement in recent weeks.

Despite all this, there are signs that the election

may mark a turning point in Russian politics. More than

at any time in the past decade, voters and their leaders

support a uniquely Russian path of development. Other

than a rejection of the extreme right or left and

agreement on the need for a strong leader, however,

there is little consensus on what that course might be.

Although the Communist Party is by far the largest

party and likely to have the biggest representation in

the new Duma, it has been unable to expand its core

constituency significantly since the last national

election. In an effort to court voters, the party has

finally accepted some aspects of reform, such as

privatization and democratization. However, its leader,

Gennadii Zyuganov, has limited appeal and little hope of

succeeding Yeltsin. Indeed, the Kremlin has targeted

Primakov and Luzhkov, not Zyuganov, as the real threat

to Russia's future.

The shift in public opinion toward the center has

also resulted in declining support for parties

advocating Western political and economic models. Boris

Nemtsov's Union of Right Forces may not receive the 5

percent of the vote its needs to gain entry to the

parliament. Grigorii Yavlinskii's Yabloko--the party

voicing the most reservations about the war in Chechnya-

-will have trouble making gains.

More than ever before, regional governors, without

whose support no president can govern effectively, are

critical to the outcome of the Duma contests. Governors

form the backbone of both the OVR and Edinstvo

coalitions and are expected to deliver the vote in their

jurisdictions.

Finally, the fact that Unity floundered in the

polls until Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced that

he will vote for it demonstrates Putin's increasingly

independent political base. In the past, Yeltsin has

been unwilling to cohabit with politicians he cannot

control. For now, at least, he must do so, since popular

support for Putin and the war in Chechnya is virtually

all that unites the country.

The 19 December vote will probably result in an

anti-Yeltsin majority of the Communists, the OVR and

independent deputies. When the Duma focuses on

legislative work, it will likely be at least moderately

hostile to the West. Moreover, a broad sense among the

anti-Kremlin forces of the need to amend the

constitution to reduce the powers of the president is

likely to result in that issue being put high on the

lower house's agenda.

At the same time, the Duma sessions will be

dominated by the question of who succeeds Yeltsin. The

legislature may try to weaken Putin--who remains

vulnerable to Yeltsin's jealousy and the negative impact

of setbacks in the Chechnya war--by voting no confidence

in the government. The Kremlin may be able to take

advantage of the tensions between the Primakov and

Luzhkov wings of the OVR; on the other hand, a

reconciliation between Yeltsin and Primakov is not out

of the question, either. And the appearance of an

entirely new contender, such as Interior Minister

Vladimir Rushailo, is also possible.

Alas, a consensus that Yeltsin should leave the

scene and Russia should find its own way does not mean

there will be an imminent agreement on a viable approach

to slowing the country's decline. Overwhelming support

for bringing Chechnya to heel is no substitute for the

unifying national idea for which many Russians have

yearned since the collapse of Soviet rule.

The author is associate director of broadcasting at

RFE/RL.

17-12-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article