RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 242, 99-12-15

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 242, 15 December 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN HOSTAGE-TAKER DIES

[02] ARMENIAN RULING COALITION AFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENTIAL

[03] ...AS SARKISIAN SAYS CRITICISM WAS ORCHESTRATED

[04] OSCE MEDIATORS VISIT STEPANAKERT...

[05] ...AND BAKU

[06] RUSSIA RESUMES GAS SUPPLIES TO GEORGIA

[07] KAZAKHSTAN REJECTS CALLS FOR BAIKONUR CLOSURE

[08] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTIES UNDER PRESSURE

[09] SIX PARTIES REGISTERED TO CONTEST TAJIK PARLIAMENTARY POLL

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[10] KOSOVA POWER-SHARING GROUP FORMED

[11] NATO MINISTERS DISCUSS KOSOVA

[12] YUGOSLAV TROOPS ON ALERT AT MONTENEGRIN AIRPORT

[13] GREECE DENIES REPORTS OF MILOSEVIC ASYLUM OFFER

[14] UN: SERBIAN FOOD SITUATION LIKE NORTH KOREA

[15] EU HEATING OIL TRUCKS REACH SERBIAN BORDER

[16] PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION CAMPAIGN OPENS IN CROATIA

[17] BUDISA TO BE CROATIAN OPPOSITION'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE?

[18] CROATIAN NEWS AGENCY HEAD QUITS OVER TUDJMAN SCOOP

[19] MACEDONIA, GREECE SIGN DEFENSE AGREEMENT

[20] ROMANIA'S VASILE SAYS HE'LL RETURN TO SENATE...

[21] ...PRESIDENT EXPLAINS DECISION...

[22] ...WHILE OPPOSITION DEMANDS EARLY ELECTIONS

[23] MOLDOVAN COMMUNISTS WANT SIMULTANEOUS ELECTIONS

[24] CHISINAU SIGNS GAS SUPPLY ACCORD

[25] BULGARIAN PREMIER HOLDING TALKS ON CABINET RESHUFFLE

[26] BULGARIA DISMISSES ALLEGATIONS OF ARMS SALES

[C] END NOTE

[27] ROMANIA'S CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN HOSTAGE-TAKER DIES

student who briefly took a group of Pedagogical Institute

students hostage in Yerevan on 9 December, died in hospital

on 14 December of gunshot wounds received when police

overpowered him and freed his hostages, Noyan Tapan reported

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 December 1999). Two of Minasian's

associates have been arrested on suspicion of complicity in

the hostage-taking. LF

[02] ARMENIAN RULING COALITION AFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENTIAL

Tigran Torosian, who is deputy chairman of the

Republican Party, one of the partners in the majority

Miasnutiun parliamentary bloc, told RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau

on 14 December that the party supports the concept of a

presidential republic, which he said provides for "a stronger

and more disciplined executive." Commentators had suggested

that Miasnutiun might seek to take advantage of the ongoing

process of constitutional reform to abolish the position of

president. Torosian also denied that the possibilities for

cooperation between Miasnutiun and President Robert Kocharian

are exhausted. Earlier this month, leading members of the

Yerkrapah Union of Veterans of the Karabakh war, of which the

Republican Party is the political arm, called for Kocharian's

resignation (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 and 7 December 1999).

LF

[03] ...AS SARKISIAN SAYS CRITICISM WAS ORCHESTRATED

Interior and National Security Minister Serzh Sarkisian, who

is one of Kocharian's closest associate, told journalists in

Yerevan on 13 December that he believes the criticism of

Kocharian voiced at the Yerkrapah congress on 4 December does

not reflect the opinion of rank and file Yerkrapah members

but originated with unnamed individuals close to the former

military commanders, Noyan Tapan and RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau

reported. Sarkisian denied that Kocharian plans to resign. He

also denied being part of Kocharian's support base, affirming

that "the president's power base is the constitution." LF

[04] OSCE MEDIATORS VISIT STEPANAKERT...

U.S. co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group charged with

mediating a settlement of the Karabakh conflict held talks

with the leadership of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh

Republic in Stepanakert on 12 December, Noyan Tapan reported.

In a clear allusion to the ongoing series of talks between

the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan and the resolution

adopted at last month's OSCE summit in Istanbul, the

unrecognized republic's president, Arkadii Ghukasian, warned

that the conflict cannot be resolved without taking the

enclave's interests into account. Armenpress on 14 December

quoted Karabakh Foreign Minister Naira Melkumian as saying

that the Minsk Group's new peace proposal would differ only

slightly from that rejected last year by Azerbaijan and that

the formula "common state," to which Baku objected, will

probably be changed the new draft. LF

[05] ...AND BAKU

Baku where they held talks on 14 December with Azerbaijan's

President Heidar Aliev, Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliev, and

the head of the former Azerbaijani community of Nagorno-

Karabakh, Nizami Bahmanov. Reuters quoted U.S. co-chair Carey

Cavanaugh as saying that the objective of the visit was "to

begin work on a new [draft peace] proposal and to look more

intensively at the need for economic reconstruction in the

region." Cavanaugh ruled out a recurrence of the hiatus in

the OSCE mediation since Azerbaijan rejected the Minsk

Group's most recent draft peace plan late last year. Aliev

expressed satisfaction that the co-chairmen are ready to

draft a new peace plan. Guliev affirmed Azerbaijan's

willingness to resume peace talks within the Minsk Group

framework, saying that direct talks between Aliev and

Kocharian could not substitute for that mediation. LF

[06] RUSSIA RESUMES GAS SUPPLIES TO GEORGIA

appointed Energy Minister David Mirtskhulava on 13 December

reached agreement with the Russian company ITERA on the

resumption of Russian gas supplies and the rescheduling of

Georgia's $60 million debt for previous gas deliveries,

Caucasus Press and Interfax reported the following day (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 14 December 1999). Also on 13 December,

Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze called for a halt to

press speculation that ITERA has been allowed to buy

strategic enterprises in Georgia in compensation for

Georgia's debts to the company. Meanwhile Mikhail

Saakashvili, who heads the majority Union of Citizens of

Georgia parliamentary faction, on 10 December challenged

journalists to produce evidence to substantiate accusations

that he has dubious business contacts with ITERA. National

Democratic Party chairwoman Irina Sarishvili-Chanturia

leveled those accusations against Saakashvili, a Shevardnadze

protege, last week. LF

[07] KAZAKHSTAN REJECTS CALLS FOR BAIKONUR CLOSURE

press conference in Almaty on 14 December, Kazakhstan Space

Agency chairman Meirbek Moldabekov called for an "objective"

evaluation of the risks inherent in Russia's continued use of

the Baikonur cosmodrome, ITAR-TASS reported. He rejected

calls for the facility's immediate closure, but added that

Russia might decide anyway to abandon it, possibly as soon as

2005. Moldabekov also said that Russia has already paid $50

million in rent for the cosmodrome for 1999 and will supply

goods worth an additional $65 million before the end of the

year. Also on 14 December, Kazakhstan National Space Agency

Deputy Chairman Nurlan Utembaev told Reuters that Russia has

dropped its previous resistance to expanding Kazakhstan's

role in commercial space launches from Baikonur. He said

Russia and Kazakhstan will hold talks on that issue next

month. LF

[08] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION PARTIES UNDER PRESSURE

party's office in the southern town of Osh was closed down by

tax police on 13 December, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported

the following day. The office head Alisher Beishenaliev was

earlier detained on suspicion of tax evasion. Ar-Namys was

founded earlier this year and is chaired by former Bishkek

Mayor Feliks Kulov. On 14 December, a district court in

Bishkek began hearing an appeal against the Kyrgyz Justice

Ministry by the El (Bei-Beshara) Party against the ministry's

recommendation to the Central Electoral Commission to bar the

party from participating in the 20 February parliamentary

elections under the party-list system. El (Bei-Beshara)

decided at a congress in Bishkek on 11 December to nominate

46 candidates to contest seats in both parliamentary chambers

in single-mandate constituencies. LF

[09] SIX PARTIES REGISTERED TO CONTEST TAJIK PARLIAMENTARY POLL

the 27 February elections to the lower chamber of the

parliament and in local elections, Asia Plus-Blitz reported

on 15 December. They are the People's Democratic Party, the

Communist Party, the Socialist Party, the Democratic Party

(Almaty platform), the Adolatkhoh Party and the Islamic

Renaissance Party. They may propose both party lists and

candidates in single-mandate constituencies. The Social

Democratic Party Adolat Va Tarakkiyot was not registered by

the Ministry of Justice. Several other opposition parties

have also been barred from contesting the poll (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 10 December 1999). LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[10] KOSOVA POWER-SHARING GROUP FORMED

and local ethnic Albanians signed an agreement in Prishtina

on 15 December setting up a power-sharing council. The first

meeting of the Interim Administrative Council is expected

later the same day, Reuters reported. No Serbs attended the

signing ceremony, and it is unclear whether they will come to

the first council meeting. The new body will consist of three

Albanians--namely, key leaders Hashim Thaci, Rexhep Qosja,

and Ibrahim Rugova--one Serb, and four members of the UN

mission to the troubled province (UNMIK). The UN's Bernard

Kouchner will head the council and have a veto right over its

decisions. In practice, Kosova has been an international

protectorate for the past six months following the withdrawal

of Serbian forces. Its final political status has yet to be

determined. Many observers argue that it is important to

introduce self-government as soon as circumstances permit

lest the local population develop a "culture of dependency"

on foreigners, as has happened to some extent in Bosnia-

Herzegovina in recent years. PM

[11] NATO MINISTERS DISCUSS KOSOVA

Atlantic alliance began a two-day meeting in Brussels on 15

December, which will be their last such gathering in 1999.

The crisis in Chechnya tops their agenda, but the ministers

will also discuss the lessons to be learned from the past six

months of international administration in Kosova. UNMIK is

the civilian authority, while NATO's KFOR provides security.

PM

[12] YUGOSLAV TROOPS ON ALERT AT MONTENEGRIN AIRPORT

Spasoje Smiljanic, who is the commander of the Yugoslav air

force, said on 14 December that Yugoslav army troops at

Podgorica airport remain on a "heightened state of alert,"

Belgrade's "Danas" reported. He stressed that the troops

"will respond adequately and firmly" to any threat. He made

clear that the military will not tolerate attempts by the

Montenegrin police to build a helicopter hangar at the

airport (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 December 1999). PM

[13] GREECE DENIES REPORTS OF MILOSEVIC ASYLUM OFFER

Minister Kostas Simitis told a press conference in Athens on

14 December that his government is "not interested" in the

political future of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic,

Montenegrin Television reported. Simitis was responding to

unspecified media reports that Greece has offered the

indicted war criminal asylum if he gives up power and leaves

Serbia. PM

[14] UN: SERBIAN FOOD SITUATION LIKE NORTH KOREA

who heads the Belgrade office of the UN's World Food Program,

said on 14 December that the food supply situation in Serbia

is comparable to that in North Korea, the BBC reported.

Hauser said that his agency needs $92.5 million in the year

2000 to help feed refugees and other needy people. His agency

currently provides assistance to 321,000 people, but he said

that the number could rise to 895,000, or 10 percent of the

population, "Danas" reported. Hauser stressed that the

situation is "serious and getting worse every day." Since

1991, Serbia has been flooded with tens of thousands of

refugees following Milosevic's defeats in Croatia, Bosnia,

and Kosova. The government provides most of them with little,

if any, assistance. Most Serbian economic infrastructure is

antiquated, and the economy is organized along unreformed

communist lines. PM

[15] EU HEATING OIL TRUCKS REACH SERBIAN BORDER

containing heating oil for Nis and Pirot reached the

Macedonian border with Serbia on 14 December. It is unclear

when customs authorities will allow the trucks to proceed

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 December 1999). PM

[16] PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION CAMPAIGN OPENS IN CROATIA

for the 3 January elections officially began on 14 December.

Officials of the government election commission said that a

total of 4,006 candidates have registered on 284 lists.

Participating are 55 political parties, 15 coalitions, 20

"independent lists," and 30 candidates representing ethnic

minorities, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. On 15

December, "Jutarnji list" published an opinion poll according

to which the death of President Franjo Tudjman has had little

or no effect on the popularity of his Croatian Democratic

Community (HDZ). The poll gives the opposition a comfortable

lead in the parliamentary vote. PM

[17] BUDISA TO BE CROATIAN OPPOSITION'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE?

December that he expects that Social Liberal leader Drazen

Budisa will be the presidential candidate of the opposition

coalition. Budisa noted that if he runs for that office, he

will seek to reduce its powers and help transform Croatia

into a "parliamentary democracy." Public opinion polls

suggest that Racan is the strongest opposition candidate for

the presidency. Racan has made it clear, however, that he is

more interested in the office of prime minister. The

governing HDZ is widely expected to nominate moderate Foreign

Minister Mate Granic as its presidential candidate (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 6 December 1999). No date has been set for

the presidential election. "Vecernji list" published an

opinion poll on 15 December that suggested Granic will easily

defeat any opponent. PM

[18] CROATIAN NEWS AGENCY HEAD QUITS OVER TUDJMAN SCOOP

Antic resigned as head of the state-run Hina news agency on

14 December to protest what he called the authorities'

failure to inform the agency promptly of Tudjman's death on

10 December. In a letter to Prime Minister Zlatko Matesa,

Hina's chief editor Benjamin Tolic noted that state-run

television ran the story 40 minutes before the authorities

informed Hina of Tudjman's death. Antic and Tolic argued that

Hina's credibility suffered in the process. PM

[19] MACEDONIA, GREECE SIGN DEFENSE AGREEMENT

ministers of the two Balkan neighbors signed a military

cooperation agreement in Skopje on 14 December. Greek

officials presented their Macedonian counterparts with 10

armored personnel carriers and five utility vehicles, AP

reported. Macedonia belongs to NATO's Partnership for Peace

program. Its fledgling military receives assistance from

several countries, including Germany and Bulgaria. PM

[20] ROMANIA'S VASILE SAYS HE'LL RETURN TO SENATE...

on 14 December said that "in the national interest" he will

no longer attempt to hold on to the post of prime minister

but stressed he will not resign from the post. President Emil

Constantinescu dismissed Vasile from the post on 13 December,

but the prime minister refuses to leave saying only the

parliament has the power to dismiss him (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 14 December 1999). Vasile even suggested that he

would take the issue to the Constitutional Court. But on 15

December, Vasile's aide Sorin Lepsa announced that Vasile

will return to the Senate and wait for the parliament to deal

with the situation. Lepsa also said the embattled politician

considers his dismissal "unconstitutional" and cannot

"continue to fight under unconstitutional circumstances."

Meanwhile, National Peasant Party Christian Democratic

spokesman Remus Opris on 14 December announced that the party

leadership has suspended Vasile from leadership positions in

the party and banned him from running for such offices for

two years, Romanian Radio reported (see also "End Note"

below). VG

[21] ...PRESIDENT EXPLAINS DECISION...

Rasvan Popescu on 14 December said the president was

justified in dismissing Vasile because the government was

paralyzed after the resignation of the majority of its

ministers. Justice Minister Valeriu Stoica on 14 December

also said the decision could be justified constitutionally

because it would be impossible for the government to function

after the majority of its ministers resigned, Mediafax

reported. VG

[22] ...WHILE OPPOSITION DEMANDS EARLY ELECTIONS

the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania, Ion

Iliescu, said on 14 December that his party will boycott the

parliament until the country's government crisis is resolved

in a "constitutional manner." Iliescu also called for early

elections. Vasile, meanwhile, has said he supports the idea

of holding an early ballot. Meanwhile, on 15 December,

Constantinescu was expected to hold talks with

representatives of the governing coalition parties as well as

the opposition on the selection of a new prime minister,

Reuters reported. The previous day, Constantinescu appointed

Labor and Social Affairs Minister Alexandru Athanasiu to

serve as interim prime minister (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14

December 1999). VG

[23] MOLDOVAN COMMUNISTS WANT SIMULTANEOUS ELECTIONS

Communists are preparing to submit a bill to the parliament

that would require parliamentary and presidential elections

to be held simultaneously, BASA-Press reported on 14

December. Communist member Victor Stepaniuc said the measure

is necessary to "avoid political crises such as the one

Moldova is facing now." In other news, President Petru

Lucinschi on 14 December thanked outgoing Russian Ambassador

to Moldova Aleksandr Papkin for his efforts to improve

Russian-Moldovan ties and to resolve the Transdniester

conflict, BASA-Press reported. Also a special internal

department of the Interior Ministry is investigating former

Finance Minister Valeriu Chitan for alleged financial

malpractice when he was minister in 1994-1995, BASA-Press

reported on 14 December. Chitan, who is now chairman of the

Moldovan Association of Banks, described the investigation as

"political blackmail." VG

[24] CHISINAU SIGNS GAS SUPPLY ACCORD

Urecheanu said the city has signed contracts with

"intermediary firms" to provide gas to the capital if Gazprom

cuts off supplies, but he declined to reveal the names of

those firms. Chisinau engineering department head Alexandr

Ftomovici said the firms can supply the city only if Gazprom

allows them to use its pipelines. Gazprom has warned Moldova

that it will cut off gas supplies if it does not pay its

debts (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 December 1999). VG

[25] BULGARIAN PREMIER HOLDING TALKS ON CABINET RESHUFFLE

negotiations with the coalition partners of the United

Democratic Forces on a cabinet reshuffle, according to a 14

December report in " Demokratsiya" cited by the BBC. The

paper noted that the prime minister might create a deputy

prime ministerial position responsible for European

integration. "Novinar" cited anonymous sources as saying that

the position might be given to Foreign Minister Nadezhda

Mikhaylova. Meanwhile, President Petar Stoyanov on 14

December called for all political parties to cooperate on the

goal of achieving European integration, AP reported. He said

the process is likely to take 10 years, during which time the

government will probably change hands. "It is very important

that those who take over continue and reaffirm the successes

of their predecessors," he said. VG

[26] BULGARIA DISMISSES ALLEGATIONS OF ARMS SALES

Minister Valentin Vasilev on 14 December dismissed

allegations by Human Rights Watch that the country violated

its international commitments not to sell weapons to various

countries, AP reported. The human rights organization said

Bulgaria sold tanks and other weapons to Uganda and the

warring states of Ethiopia and Eritrea last year. Deputy

Trade Minister Hristo Mihailovski said Bulgaria did not sell

any weapons to Uganda and legally exported weapons to

Ethiopia and Eritrea until March of last year, when an

international arms embargo was imposed on the two countries.

VG

[C] END NOTE

[27] ROMANIA'S CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS

There are times when "how" is clearly more important

than "why." The political assassination of Romanian communist

dictator Nicolae Ceausescu on 25 December 1989, following a

mock trial that made some Stalinist nostalgics sigh as fond

memories flooded back, was such a case. That event marred for

ever the "birth certificate" of Romania's new democracy, for

how can a state based on the rule of law come into being

through such a mockery of that concept? The trial also

created a martyr out of a villain, and the political price

for that unwarranted metamorphosis of the former dictator has

perhaps not yet been paid in full.

Radu Vasile is no Ceausescu, of course. There is no

reason to overdramatize his dismissal as prime minister, but

his ouster has taken place with such flagrant disregard of

Romania's constitution that the implications of this might

secure him a place in history that otherwise might have been

undeserved.

The Romanian Constitution does not give the president

the prerogative to dismiss the prime minister. The president

appoints the premier after consultations with political

parties, but the premier is invested by the parliament and

can be dismissed only by a no confidence vote in the

legislature The basic document also stipulates that the head

of state may recall the premier if that person becomes

"incapacitated." The state of health of the premier, and

nothing else, is obviously meant by that choice of wording.

Vasile's dismissal, however, took place by choosing to

interpret "incapacitated" from a political, rather than a

medical, perspective. Since it was clear that the premier

would refuse to tender his resignation willingly--which is

the other way a prime minister's term can be ended, according

to the constitution--and since his party, the National

Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD), did not want to

propose a no confidence motion in its own premier, there

emerged a cabal whose main architects were PNTCD chairman Ion

Diaconescu and President Emil Constantinescu. They

"ingeniously" decided that cabinet ministers would tender

their resignation and once a majority of them did so, Vasile

would be deemed "incapacitated" to run his own team.

The result of that cabal is political chaos. How else

can a situation be described in which a country has two

premiers--in this case, Vasile and interim Premier Alexandru

Athanasiu? After putting up public resistance, Vasile on 14

December announced he is returning to the Senate bench. But

he emphasized that he is not resigning. Hence, whoever the

PNTCD designates as his successor cannot be lawfully invested

by the parliament.

Moreover, the outgoing coalition may lack the necessary

majority to push through its candidate for premier. Before

making his announcement on 14 December, Vasile said a group

of his supporters, numbering at least 23 members of

parliament, has been officially formed. Calling itself the

Popular Initiative Group, this group is clearly the nucleus

of a new political formation, since "popular" is the name

that some Christian Democratic parties in the West assume,

including the Christian Democratic parliamentary group in the

European Parliament.

Until this "how" has been satisfactorily resolved, the

"why" will count for little or not at all. There were clear

conflicts both between Vasile and the president and between

him and the leadership of his party. Vasile resented

interference by the presidency in government's affairs. That

was an "open secret," as open as his own undiplomatic, even

unstatesman-like rebukes of President Constantinescu. He

treated peremptorily members of his cabinet, who would then

run to the presidency with complaints.

More important, and equally undiplomatic, Vasile had

made public his desire to replace the octogenarian Diaconescu

as head of the PNTCD and has organized his own "Brasov

faction" in the party to advance that objective. True, the

PNTCD is split, and the "gerontocracy problem" (the party is

ruled by a troika of veterans all in their 80s) is a genuine

one. But Vasile's manner of handling Diaconescu made it

easier for his rivals --most of whom belong to the younger

generation in the party--to plot against him.

Moreover, 2000 is election year in Romania, and the

PNTCD has an unenviable record of government performance that

in itself invites Vasile's ouster in what might be a last-

minute image-mending bid. And then there is Constantinescu's

own "image problem": the president has often been reproached

for being "too weak" but may, however, have chosen the wrong

way to prove himself "strong" since his cabal against Vasile

may backfire.

All these problems were long known. As Diaconescu

admitted on 14 December, the task of tackling those problems

had been postponed until after the Helsinki summit to avoid

presenting an image of political instability. Such an image,

however, is now being projected, as demonstrated by the IMF's

announcement the same day that because of the instability in

Romania, it is postponing taking a decision on whether to

release the second tranche of a loan approved earlier this

year. Indeed, if there was one way to prove to the EU that

Romania is facing not only economic difficulties but also

political problems, this was doubtless the way to do it.

15-12-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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