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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 240, 99-12-13Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 3, No. 240, 13 December 1999CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT MEETS WITH PARLIAMENT LEADERSRobertKocharian held talks on 10 December with parliamentary speaker Armen Khachatrian, his deputies, and the chairmen of parliamentary committees, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Deputy speaker Tigran Torosian told RFE/RL after the meeting that all parties expressed concern at the "atmosphere of mistrust" between the president and the parliament and tried to identify measures to overcome it. Torosian also denied that most members of the Yerkrapah union of veterans of the Karabakh war endorse the demand for Kocharian's resignation, which was made at that organization's congress in early December (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 and 7 December 1999 and also "End Note" below). Kocharian, for his part, denied that he plans to dissolve the parliament on 30 May 2000, one year after its election, which is the earliest date he is constitutionally empowered to do so. LF [02] OSCE MINSK GROUP CHAIRMEN IN ARMENIA...The French, Russian,and U.S. co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group arrived in Yerevan on 10 December and held talks the following day with President Kocharian, Premier Aram Sargsian, Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, and Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutiunian, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. French representative Jean- Jacques Gaillard said after the talks with Oskanian that the aim of the co-chairmen's visit was to collect information about the current situation. He added that the peace process in general, but no specific proposal, was discussed. He added that the co-chairmen are not proposing any new initiatives during their current visit to Yerevan, Stepanakert, and Baku. Turan on 11 December quoted former Russian representative to the Minsk Group Vladimir Kazimirov, who is accompanying the co-chairmen, as denying that he will replace the present Russian representative, Nikolai Gribkov. LF [03] ...AS ARMENIAN OPPOSITION SAY KARABAKH'S INTERESTS ARE BEINGIGNOREDEight Armenian opposition parties and groups--the 21st Century, Liberal-Democratic, Azatutiun, Christian- Democratic, Conservative, Nor Ughi parties as well as Shamiram and the Armat organization--issued a statement on 9 December accusing the Armenian leadership of lacking a concept for resolving the Karabakh conflict and of failing to defend the interests of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic at the OSCE Istanbul summit in November, Noyan Tapan reported. They claimed that the Karabakh leadership has been excluded from talks on resolving the conflict. They also argued that the signing at the summit of agreements on the use of the Baku-Ceyhan oil export pipeline will lead to Armenia's isolation from regional economic integration and preclude it playing a stabilizing role in the region. LF [04] KARABAKH ARMY COMMANDER RESPONDS TO PRESIDENT'S ATTACKIn afaxed response to questions from RFE/RL's Stepanakert correspondent, former Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Minister Samvel Babayan on 11 December criticized remarks by the enclave's president, Arkadii Ghukasian, who, Babayan said, does not behave as a head of state should. Ghukasian had told journalists in Stepanakert on 7 December that Babayan should concentrate his attention on the enclave's armed forces as he is not qualified to engage in politics (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 December 1999). Also on 11 December, 13 deputies to the Karabakh parliament issued a joint statement accusing Ghukasian of "destabilizing" the political situation. LF [05] AZERBAIJAN HOLDS LOCAL ELECTIONSA Central ElectionCommission official said that 52.6 percent of Azerbaijan's 4.3 million electorate cast their votes in the 12 December municipal elections, according to RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service the next day, citing the Independent Center for Local Elections. Those elections should have been held in 1997. The minimum required turnout was 25 percent. More than 36,000 candidates, half of them nominally independent, were contesting 22,000 seats on local councils. Thousands of domestic observers as well as contingents from the OSCE and the Council of Europe monitored the poll. Two of the country's three main opposition parties, the Azerbaijan Popular Front and the Musavat Party, fielded candidates, while the Azerbaijan National Independence Party boycotted the poll to protest procedural violations during the election campaign. LF [06] GEORGIA CALLS FOR INTERNATIONAL MONITORING OF BORDER WITHCHECHNYALevan Mikeladze, who is Georgia's envoy to the OSCE, proposed to that body's Permanent Council on 9 December that international monitors be dispatched to patrol Georgia's frontier with Chechnya, Caucasus Press reported the following day. Foreign Minister Irakli Menagharishvili has made a similar request to the UN Security Council, according to Georgian Foreign Ministry official Avtandil Napetvaridze. Georgian officials on 11 December again rejected Russian charges that arms and mercenaries are entering Chechnya from Georgian territory or that Chechen militants plan to establish a base in Georgia. LF [07] GEORGIAN DEFENSE MINISTER DENIES HE WILL RESIGNDefenseMinistry spokesman Koba Liklikadze told Caucasus Press on 11 December that there is no truth to rumors circulating in Tbilisi that Defense Minister David Tevzadze intends to step down. Tevzadze has been accused of financial mismanagement within the ministry (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 1999). LF [08] GEORGIA'S STUDENTS DEMAND ALLOWANCESStudents and facultymembers at Tbilisi State University and the city's Technical University staged a demonstration on 10 December outside the finance ministry to demand payment of wages and grants for the past seven months, Caucasus Press reported. They were promised that the monies would be made available beginning the following day. On 9 December, Minister for Refugees Valeri Vashakidze warned that displaced persons from Abkhazia have not received their allowances for the past three months and may not do so this year. He added that the Ministry of Finance owes his ministry a total of 14.5 million lari (about $7.5 million). The state budget owes a further 100 million lari in pensions and state sector wages, Caucasus Press reported on 9 December. LF [09] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT DECLARES WAR ON SEPARATISM,'EXTREMISM'Addressing representatives of Kazakhstan's various ethnic groups on 10 December, Nursultan Nazarbaev warned that the country's leadership will move swiftly to curtail the activities of separatist and extremist religious organizations, Russian agencies reported. He blamed the spread of extremism on globalization and condemned the recently thwarted attempt to establish a separate Russian republic on the territory of eastern Kazakhstan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 and 29 November 1999). LF [10] LEADER OF KAZAKHSTAN'S CHECHENS DENIES DANGER OFINFILTRATIONAkhmed Muradov, chairman of the Vainakh Association of Chechen and Ingush Centers of Kazakhstan, told journalists in Almaty on 11 December that official reports of Chechen militants trying to infiltrate Kazakhstan are unfounded, Interfax reported. He said some 5,000 refugees from Chechnya are currently in Kazakhstan but have not been formally granted refugee status because Kazakhstan "lacks the appropriate legal base." Kazakhstan's Interior Minister Kairbek Sulaimanov said last month that screening at points of entry to the country has been intensified. Ferry services between Aktau and Baku were subsequently suspended to prevent an influx of Chechens via Azerbaijan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 and 30 November 1999). LF [11] TAJIK PRESIDENT SETS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION DATEImomaliRakhmonov on 11 December scheduled the elections to the lower and upper houses of the new bicameral parliament for 27 February and 25 March, respectively, ITAR-TASS reported. Addressing parliamentary deputies the previous day after the passing of the new election law, Rakhmonov said "we must do everything possible" to ensure that the poll is free and democratic and a model for other countries." Khalifabobo Khamidov, who is Rakhmonov's adviser on parliamentary affairs, termed the election of the new legislature "an important and conclusive step" toward peace, according to Reuters. On 11 December, the parliament also named a 15- member Central Electoral Commission. LF [12] TURKMENISTAN CLAIMS HIGH TURNOUT IN CONTROVERSIAL ELECTIONSOne hour before polling stations closed in the 12 Decemberparliamentary elections, Turkmen officials claimed that turnout was 98.9 percent of the country's 2.2 million electorate. Free watches were distributed to first-time voters. A total of 104 candidates, almost all of them members of the Democratic Party of Turkmenistan, which is the only legally functioning party in the country, contested the 50 seats in the new legislature. The OSCE declined to send any monitors on the grounds that "the legislative framework is inadequate for even a minimally democratic election" (see "RFE/TRL Newsline," 10 December 1999). President Saparmurat Niyazov on 9 December termed the poll "an important step in the history of Turkmenistan," according to Reuters. LF [13] RUSSIAN PREMIER TERMS UZBEKISTAN 'STRATEGIC PARTNER'Vladimir Putin and Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimovsigned a military cooperation agreement in Tashkent on 11 December, Russian agencies reported. Putin described that document as marking "a qualitatively new level of relations in security matters" and Uzbekistan as "Russia's strategic partner for many, many years." He added that "Russia has its interests in Central Asia" and that Russia is soliciting Uzbekistan's help in maintaining peace and stability in the region. Putin also discussed with Karimov preparations for the latter's summit in Moscow next year with Russian President Boris Yeltsin. LF [14] UZBEKISTAN SCHEDULES PARLIAMENTARY RUNOFFA second round ofvoting will take place on 19 December in 66 constituencies where no candidate won a majority in the 5 December parliamentary poll, Reuters reported on 10 December. Of the 184 candidates elected during the first round, 32 represent the People's Democratic Party, 19 the Fidokorlar National Democratic Party, nine each the Adolat (Justice) and Vatan Tarikietti (Fatherland Progress Party) and six the Milli Tiklanish Party. Another 11 deputies represent citizens' groups. Central Electoral Commission head Nazhmiddin Komilov rejected Western criticism of the ban on opposition parties and of restrictions enshrined in the election law, Reuters reported. He argued that the fact that each seat was contested by five or six candidates proves that the poll was democratic. LF [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[15] CROATIA'S TUDJMAN BURIED IN STATE FUNERAL...Several tens ofthousands of people have turned out in Zagreb on 13 December for the funeral of President Franjo Tudjman, who died late on 10 December after a long battle with cancer. Archbishop Josip Bozanic of Zagreb is presiding over the funeral ceremony. Over the weekend, some 15,000 people paid their last respects to Tudjman at the presidential palace. Messages of condolence arrived for his family and acting President Vlatko Pavletic from around Croatia. Some 15 Croatian prisoners at the Hague war crimes tribunal also sent their condolences, the state- run Hina news agency reported. PM [16] ...WITH LOW-KEY FOREIGN PRESENCE...Messages of condolencealso arrived over the weekend from several world leaders, including Pope John Paul II. Among the leaders in the region, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic, Macedonia's President- elect Boris Trajkovski, Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, and the former Kosova Liberation Army's Hashim Thaci also sent messages to Pavletic or to the Tudjman family. The only important foreign head-of-state to attend the funeral on 13 December, however, is Turkey's Suleyman Demirel. Slovenia, Hungary, and Macedonia are represented by their respective prime ministers. The U.S. and Germany, which are Croatia's most important allies, are represented by their respective ambassadors. Former German Foreign Minister Hans- Dietrich Genscher is present as a private citizen, as is former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia Peter Galbraith. The former U.S. envoy told the BBC that he expects that the end of Tudjman's authoritarian rule will lead to a rapid integration of Croatia into Euro-Atlantic structures. PM [17] ...AS DOMESTIC QUESTIONS TOP AGENDAPolitical analysts inCroatia and abroad noted that two questions top the agenda following Tudjman's death (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 16 November 1999). The first is what effect his passing will have on the 3 January parliamentary elections. Polls prior to his death indicated that his Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) will trail behind six opposition parties. Opposition spokesman Tihomir Ladisic told Reuters on 12 December, however, that "one funeral is worth 1,000 election rallies," and many observers expect that Tudjman's death will lead to a "sympathy vote" for the HDZ. The second question is who will succeed Tudjman. Polls suggest that Social Democrat Ivica Racan is the front-runner but that Foreign Minister Mate Granic, who is the leader of the HDZ's moderate wing, is also a strong contender. According to law, presidential elections must be held within 60 days of a president's death. PM [18] ALBANIA ABOLISHES DEATH PENALTYThe Constitutional Courtruled on 9 December to abolish the death penalty, dpa reported. The Council of Europe threatened to expel Albania unless it ends capital punishment. The legal status of the death penalty has been ambiguous for some time. The 1998 constitution forbids it, but the Criminal Code provides for it for 15 crimes, including murder. Supporters of the death penalty claim that it is necessary because of the high crime rate. They also argue that abolition of capital punishment would encourage families of murder victims to take matters into their own hands in a country where the traditional code of honor demands blood for blood. In Rome on 11 December, supporters of a Vatican-backed, world-wide movement to abolish the death penalty turned on a special set of lights at the Coliseum to mark Tirana's abolition of capital punishment. PM [19] KOSOVARS DEMAND RELEASE OF PRISONERSSeveral tens ofthousands of mainly ethnic Albanians demonstrated in Prishtina on 10 December to demand that the Serbian authorities free the 3,000 or so Kosovars they are holding in various prisons in Serbia. The OSCE's Daan Everts told a conference on human rights in the Kosovar capital that international opinion should condemn the Serbian authorities' recent sentencing of Kosovar human rights activist Flora Brovina to 12 years in prison (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 December 1999). PM [20] ANOTHER AIRPORT INCIDENT IN MONTENEGRORFE/RL's South SlavicService reported on 11 December that "strong contingents of Montenegrin police" deployed at Tivat airport after a brief confrontation there between police and "several vehicles" belonging to the Yugoslav army (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 December 1999). During a similar incident the previous week at Podgorica airport, army forces were placed on full alert and issued live ammunition. A paratroop unit in Nis was also placed on full alert, the broadcast added. Shortly after the Podgorica incident, army General Spasoje Similjanovic arrived at that airport from Belgrade to inspect federal troops there. In Niksic on 11 December, Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic warned that if NATO troops try to occupy Podgorica airport, "they will meet with the armed resistance of the army and the people." Bulatovic is the arch-rival of President Djukanovic. PM [21] ROMANIAN SUPREME COURT SUSPENDS RAILWAY WORKERS' STRIKETheRomanian Supreme Court on 10 December ordered the country's striking railway workers to suspend their strike for 45 days. The government had asked for a 90-day suspension. Union leader Gheorghe Sultana said the workers would respect the ruling, but he added that the unions "reserve our right to go on strike again if our pay demands are not settled during talks in over the coming days." The Supreme Court said the ruling was designed to prevent any further losses to the country's economy owing to the strike. The workers are demanding a 70 percent wage increase (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 December 1999). VG [22] ROMANIAN POLITICIANS HAIL EU DECISIONPresident EmilConstantinescu on 10 December said that by securing an EU invitation to entry talks, the country has "fulfilled the ideal which had claimed the lives of the heroes of the 1989 December revolution." The president also thanked the Romanian people for expressing a willingness to integrate into the EU. Adrian Nastase, vice president of the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania, also welcomed the EU decision, describing it as a "landmark in Romania's foreign policy strategy for many years." In a televised address on 12 December, Constantinescu called for better coordination among government ministries as a key pre-requisite to successful EU membership negotiations. VG [23] OUTGOING PREMIER SAYS MOLDOVA TOO POOR TO PAY BACK DEBTSOutgoing Moldovan Prime Minister Ion Sturza said on statetelevision on 10 December that the country will default on $95 million worth of debt payments next year owing to a lack of hard currency, Infotag reported. He said the default could come in the first or second quarter of next year. Meanwhile, Democratic Convention of Moldovan leader and former President Mircea Snegur on 11 December said he believes early elections are inevitable following the failure of two cabinets to secure a parliamentary vote of confidence, (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 December 1999). BASA-Press reported. Communist deputy chairman Victor Stepaniuc said early elections are a possibility but added that his party would prefer to avoid them. VG [24] BULGARIAN PREMIER UPBEAT ABOUT EU DECISIONIvan Kostov on 10December said the EU's decision to invite his country to EU entry talks was a reward for the country's "European solidarity." Kostov said he brought up the issue of visa restrictions on Bulgarians in many EU member states, saying his country's citizens want to be "treated on the same footing as the citizens of the other countries the EU is holding accession negotiations with," according to an 11 December BTA report cited by the BBC. Kostov also said the EU's decision to formally recognize Turkey as a membership candidate will lay "new tracks for the development of bilateral relations" between Sofia and Ankara. National Assembly Chairman Yordan Sokolov noted that as part of its efforts to get into the EU, Bulgaria will probably have to amend its constitution to allow foreigners to own land, BTA reported. The leader of the opposition Euroleft Party, Alexander Tomov, said the EU invitation is an "important test and a serious challenge for Bulgaria." VG [25] BULGARIA TO SEEK LOANS TO MODERNIZE NUCLEAR REACTORSTheBulgarian National Assembly voted to authorize the government to sign agreements on loans to finance the modernization of two reactors at the Kozloduy nuclear power plant, Bulgarian Radio reported on 10 December. Some 362 million euros ($367 million) in loans will be provided by the U.S. City Bank and Exim Bank, the Russian Export-Import Bank, and the European Nuclear Energy Community. The modernization program includes measures to improve the safety of the two reactors. VG [C] END NOTE[26] ARMENIAN POLITICS IN UNIFORMBy Richard GiragosianRecent developments in Armenia following the attack on the parliament have highlighted an increasingly assertive military and a widening split between the president and elements of the Unity bloc, the dominant group in the parliament. The killings of the two leaders of the Unity bloc, parliamentary chairman Karen Demirchian and Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian, have led to a serious reconfiguration of the balance of political power in the country. This shift first became apparent in the negotiations between President Robert Kocharian and his newly appointed prime minister, the brother of the late premier, Aram Sargsian, on the lineup of a new cabinet. The military reportedly submitted a list of preferred appointments to the president during the negotiations and was the driving force behind the appointment of the new prime minister. Moreover, the deepening internal tension has been exacerbated by Kocharian's recent moves promising a possible settlement of the long-standing Nagorno- Karabakh conflict. This political confrontation was most evident at the early December party congress of the Yerkrapah Union of veterans of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Having formed the Republican Party, a key partner of the People's Party in the Unity Bloc, the Yerkrapah organization is led by several senior military figures aspiring to exert political leverage. Although the Yerkrapah group backed the new premier, it remains to be seen to what degree Sargsian will serve as a Yerkrapah figurehead or if he will attempt to distance himself from the group. Within Yerkrapah, a new core leadership has emerged that is strongly critical of the president, even threatening to force new presidential elections. The party congress elected Major General Manvel Grigorian as its chairman, signaling a step toward "politics in uniform." This assertive and military-affiliated Yerkrapah leadership promises a looming confrontation with the Kocharian camp and has already fostered a growing split with its own Republican Party supporters. Moreover, the appointment of Vahan Shirkhanian as minister of industrial infrastructure constitutes a concession by the president that demonstrates his tenuous position in resisting the Yerkrapah leadership directly. Shirkhanian is former deputy defense minister and the military's initial choice for new premier. And it was he who led the military's very vocal demands calling for the dismissal of the power ministers in the wake of the attack on the parliament. The military boldly asserted itself immediately following that attack, responding to the crisis with a demonstrable show of force. Although the Armenian military had been engaged in political affairs with President Levon Ter-Petrossian government's deployment of the army in response to an opposition demonstration in Yerevan, this new trend of politics in uniform poses the threat of a "creeping coup." Following the success in forcing the resignations of the interior and national security ministers and the prosecutor-general, the military has now entered the political arena through the Yerkrapah organization. The ominous trend of a politically assertive military has roots in Armenia's body politic. The use of the military as a springboard to political power was evident in both Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia with the rise of the powerful former Karabakh Defense Minister Samvel Babayan and late Armenian Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian. Now, politics in uniform has emerged as an alternative avenue to power, offering a new source of political legitimacy for ambitious elements of the military as the traditional path to political power has become discredited by rampant corruption and feuding political elites. Armenia's political landscape is somewhat similar to Russia's in that rival factions within the government are struggling for control over the key economic sectors. These feuding political elites are committed to democracy in varying degrees, casting the competition not as a battle for maintaining democratic and economic reforms but as a struggle over who controls reform. As the military-influenced leadership of the Yerkrapah organization escalate a confrontation with the Kocharian government, it will be interesting to see what role the defense minister will play. Widely respected as a professional military officer with a disdain for partisan politics, the defense minister may well hold the key for ensuring the stability of the Kocharian government. The most likely scenario is a confrontation between the Yerkrapah- dominated parliament and the presidency, with the defense minister preventing the military establishment from directly engaging the government in open political combat. But the military is an essential element in the long-term necessity of securing the peace after a negotiated peace agreement over Nagorno-Karabakh. A more fundamental element common to all the players is the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. It was, in fact, the Karabakh conflict that brought Robert Kocharian to power in Armenia, first as prime minister and then as president. Karabakh also heralded the rise of Vazgen Sarkisian and provided the pivotal political legitimacy for the Yerkrapah movement. It also hastened the demise of former President Ter-Petrossian, forced into resignation by the Kocharian camp. Most significantly, the future course of both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh rests on the looming Karabakh settlement. It remains to be seen whether the increasing pressure on President Kocharian will mean a lost opportunity for peace or just another obstacle on the path toward consolidating democracy in Armenia. The author is the editor of the monthly newsletter "TransCaucasus: A Chronology." 13-12-99 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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