RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 238, 99-12-09

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 238, 9 December 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PREMIER WINDS UP RUSSIAN VISIT

[02] ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN TEHRAN

[03] AZERBAIJAN'S PARLIAMENT ADOPTS NEW MEDIA LAW

[04] IMF WARNS GEORGIA

[05] GEORGIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY CHALLENGES MILITARY

[06] GEORGIA DEPORTS PUTATIVE MERCENARIES

[07] OPPOSITION NEWSPAPER IN KAZAKHSTAN SUSPENDS

[08] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION POLITICIAN PREDICTS

[09] KYRGYZ CABINET MULLS SOCIAL SPENDING SHORTFALL

[10] REGIONAL MOVEMENT QUITS UNITED TAJIK OPPOSITION

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] STANDOFF ENDS AT MONTENEGRIN AIRPORT

[12] 'WHO WILL CONTROL THE SKIES OVER MONTENEGRO?'

[13] NATO WARNS MILOSEVIC OVER MONTENEGRO

[14] MONTENEGRO OPENS INVESTIGATION OF WAR CRIMES

[15] MONTENEGRIN OPPOSITION CALLS FOR GOVERNMENT TO

[16] CHINESE AID FOR SERBIA

[17] SERBIAN COURT FINES INDEPENDENT MEDIA

[18] MACEDONIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ADMIT DEFEAT

[19] CROATIAN MINISTER: SOMEONE WILL PAY FOR BUGGING

[20] BOSNIAN SERB POLICE FOR UN PEACEKEEPING ABROAD

[21] ROMANIAN RAILWAY STRIKE CONTINUES

[22] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT SEARCHES FOR NEW PREMIER

[23] LUCINSCHI CALLS FOR URGENT RESOLUTION TO

[24] COUNCIL OF EUROPE ISSUES CRITICAL REPORT ON

[25] BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT PASSES BUDGET

[C] END NOTE

[26] AN OMINOUS ACCORD

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PREMIER WINDS UP RUSSIAN VISIT

Sargsian returned to Yerevan on 8 December after a two-day

working visit, his first foreign trip since his appointment as

premier last month. Sargsian met with his Russian

counterpart, Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, and

Defense Minister Igor Sergeev. Their talks focused on

settling mutual debts, defense industry cooperation, and the

energy sector including operation of the Medzamor nuclear

power station. Both before and after the visit Sargsian

affirmed Armenia's unswerving commitment to strategic

cooperation with Russia. He also expressed the hope that

Putin will become the next Russian president, according to

ITAR-TASS. LF

[02] ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN TEHRAN

held talks in Tehran on 8 December with his Iranian

counterpart, Kamal Kharrazi, and with Majlis speaker Ali-Akbar

Nateq-Nouri, IRNA reported. Oskanian briefed Kharrazi on the

ongoing search for a political solution to the Karabakh

conflict, including the direct talks in recent months between

Armenian President Robert Kocharian and his Azerbaijani

counterpart, Heidar Aliev. Kharrazi argued that the shared

interests of the South Caucasus states are an adequate

basis for the creation of a united security strategy. Both

Kharrazi and Nateq-Nouri noted Iran's readiness to expand

economic cooperation with Armenia. Kharrazi noted in this

context joint ventures to build highways and tunnels and the

project to build a pipeline to supply Armenia with natural gas

from Iran. LF

[03] AZERBAIJAN'S PARLIAMENT ADOPTS NEW MEDIA LAW

reading on 7 December, Turan reported. The law prohibits

censorship but contains other provisions that Azerbaijani

journalists fear may be applied to restrict the free flow of

information. Specifically, it requires all media outlets to re-

register with the Ministry of Justice, empowers the

government selectively to grant accreditation to cover

official events; and provides for legal proceedings to be

taken against media outlets that "insult the honor and dignity

of the state and Azerbaijani people" or publish materials

"contrary to the national interest." LF

[04] IMF WARNS GEORGIA

Southern Division of the IMF's Second European Department,

told journalists in Tbilisi on 8 December that it is "senseless"

to raise the possibility of a new loan to Georgia as long as

the country fails to comply with the fund's demands that it

improve tax collection and crack down on corruption,

Caucasus Press reported. Characterizing the economic

situation in Georgia as "extremely difficult," Odling-Smee said

that in order to qualify for a new tranche, Georgia needs "a

targeted economic policy" that, among other things, will

provide for implementation of the budget. The budget deficit

for 1999 is estimated at 200-220 million lari ($100-110

million), Caucasus Press reported on 30 November quoting

the chairman of the parliamentary budget office, Roman

Gotsiridze. LF

[05] GEORGIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY CHALLENGES MILITARY

The Georgian Defense Ministry has issued a

statement accusing Military Prosecutor Badri Bitsadze of

making "populist statements" that violate the presumption of

innocence, Caucasus Press reported on 8 December. In an

interview with the newspaper "Alia," Bitsadze had described

the unsanctioned diversion of funds by the ministry to the

Society for the Support of the Georgian Army as "an

administrative crime" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 December

1999). LF

[06] GEORGIA DEPORTS PUTATIVE MERCENARIES

deported 12 men apprehended trying to cross its border

into Chechnya on 6 December, Caucasus Press reported on 8

December (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 December 1999). The

men, who were unarmed, said they had planned to join the

Chechen resistance against Russia. Also on 8 December,

Georgian Border Guard Commander Valerii Chkheidze said

Tbilisi does not plan to lift the restrictions it imposed on the

entry into Georgia of fleeing Chechen civilians. LF

[07] OPPOSITION NEWSPAPER IN KAZAKHSTAN SUSPENDS

The editors of "XXI vek" announced that they

have to suspend publication as no publishing house in Almaty

will print the newspaper, RFE/RL's correspondent in the

former capital reported on 9 December. Several dozen

prominent intellectuals and politicians appealed last week to

President Nursultan Nazarbaev to intervene to enable the

newspaper to be printed (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2

December 1999). Nazarbaev has not yet responded to that

appeal. LF

[08] KYRGYZ OPPOSITION POLITICIAN PREDICTS

Speaking at a

press briefing at RFE/RL's Washington office on 8 December,

former Bishkek Mayor Feliks Kulov said his Ar-Namys party

has been barred from contesting the Kyrgyz parliamentary

elections next February as it was formally registered less

than one year before the poll date, an RFE/RL correspondent

reported. Kulov said he will attempt to register as an

independent candidate, but is doubtful whether he will

succeed in doing so. He said that Ar-Namys is the third-

largest political party in Kyrgyzstan, with 11,000 members.

He characterized the political system as "soft totalitarianism."

Fifteen parties have been registered to contest the

parliamentary election, while another four have been denied

registration (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 1999). LF

[09] KYRGYZ CABINET MULLS SOCIAL SPENDING SHORTFALL

Prime Minister Amangeldi Muraliev that the government

currently owes some 112 million soms (about $2.5 million) in

pension arrears, RFE/RL's bureau in the Kyrgyz capital

reported. The government also owes 54 million soms to the

health care sector and a similar sum for education. The

cabinet is to bring bankruptcy proceedings against

enterprises that fail to make payments to the social fund. LF

[10] REGIONAL MOVEMENT QUITS UNITED TAJIK OPPOSITION

population of Tajikistan's Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous

Oblast has left the umbrella United Tajik Opposition (UTO)

because of disagreements over the policies of the UTO

leadership, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 9 December,

quoting Lali Badakhshon's chairman, Atobek Amirbekov. Lali

Badakhshon will independently contest the parliamentary

elections that are to be held next February, Amirbekov said.

LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[11] STANDOFF ENDS AT MONTENEGRIN AIRPORT

Podgorica on 9 December that the capital's airport reopened

at 8:00 a.m. local time after an overnight standoff between

Yugoslav army troops and Montenegrin police. He added that

all problems have been ironed out, Montenegrin Television

reported. Immediately after the airport reopened, a

Montenegrin Airlines flight took off for Budapest. At 6:00 p.m.

local time the previous evening, federal troops occupied the

airport and blocked the runway with trucks, citing unspecified

"security reasons." They surrounded a hangar that

Montenegrin police are building for their helicopters, saying

the police have no right to construct such a facility without

army permission. Montenegrin police remained in the main

building of the airport. The Montenegrin authorities sought to

play down the incident, which they described as a

"misunderstanding." PM

[12] 'WHO WILL CONTROL THE SKIES OVER MONTENEGRO?'

the real issue behind the incident at the airport. On that

date, a recent decision by the Montenegrin government was

slated to come into effect, whereby Montenegrin authorities

would take control of the civilian airports at Podgorica and

Tivat. To date, the civilian areas of the airports have been

under the control of Yugoslav state airlines, JAT, while the

military areas have been run by the Yugoslav army.

Montenegrin Deputy Information Minister Abaz Dzafic told AP

on 8 December that Montenegro wants "to control its own

airports, like every other country in the world." Reuters

described the incident as "the gravest sign yet of tensions

between Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and the

government of Montenegro" under President Milo Djukanovic.

PM

[13] NATO WARNS MILOSEVIC OVER MONTENEGRO

Secretary-General Lord Robertson said in Rome on 9

December that "President Milosevic should be well warned

that he should not start the 21st century fomenting more

trouble in the Balkans. We watch with concern and with great

attention what is happening in Montenegro and to President

Djukanovic in that part of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia,

who has a democratic mandate from his people," Reuters

reported. Italian Prime Minister Massimo D'Alema added: "We

are not advocating independence for Montenegro or the

disintegration of Yugoslavia, but we warn Milosevic that there

should be no military action for control of the region," AP

reported. PM

[14] MONTENEGRO OPENS INVESTIGATION OF WAR CRIMES

State prosecutor Bozidar Vukcevic said in

Podgorica on 8 December that the authorities have begun

investigating whether Montenegro's Veselin Vlahovic

committed war crimes while serving with Bosnian Serb forces

during the 1992-1995 Bosnian conflict. The Bosnian

authorities recently sent documents to Podgorica to show

that Vlahovic--also known as "Batko"--raped, robbed, and

killed an unspecified number of people during the Bosnian

war. Vukcevic said that, if indicted, Vlahovic could stand trial

in Montenegro or be extradited to the war crimes tribunal in

The Hague. His name does not appear among those of

people publicly indicted by the tribunal. Vlahovic is currently

serving a prison sentence in Montenegro on an unrelated

charge. The Montenegrin authorities have repeatedly

pledged to cooperate with The Hague but have not yet

extradited anyone who has been indicted. PM

[15] MONTENEGRIN OPPOSITION CALLS FOR GOVERNMENT TO

Predrag Bulatovic, who is deputy leader of the pro-

Milosevic Socialist People's Party (SNP), said that Djukanovic

and his government should resign following the indictment of

Foreign Minister Branko Perovic by an Italian court on

smuggling charges (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 December

1999). Bulatovic added that Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir

Bulatovic, who was Montenegrin president at the time of

Perovic's alleged crimes, bears no responsibility in the case.

The court in Naples indicted 26 people in addition to Perovic.

The SNP frequently calls for new elections in Montenegro.

The Djukanovic government, for its part, recognizes neither

Momir Bulatovic as federal prime minister nor the authority of

his Belgrade-based government. PM

[16] CHINESE AID FOR SERBIA

December, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue

confirmed media reports from Belgrade that China will supply

reconstruction aid to Serbia. She added, however, that she

cannot yet confirm media reports that the value of the gift

will be $300 million, Reuters reported. In Belgrade, opposition

economist Mladjan Dinkic said the Chinese aid could help the

government manipulate the economy to its own political

advantage, Montenegrin Television reported. He stressed,

however, that the government is printing money so fast that

the dinar will continue to decline in value against the German

mark. PM

[17] SERBIAN COURT FINES INDEPENDENT MEDIA

court on 8 December fined the dailies "Danas" and "Blic" and

the television station Studio B some $35,000 for reporting

statements by opposition politicians critical of the nationalist

Serbian Radical Party. The Radicals called the statements

slanderous. Serbia's draconian 1998 media law holds media

responsible for the content of stories they report, even if

they are reporting statements by public figures. Elsewhere, a

Belgrade court ruled that Bozidar Spasic, whom police

recently arrested for "spreading false information," must stay

in custody for at least another 30 days. Spasic is a former

member of the security services, who charged that those

services have sought to kill Serbian opposition figures

abroad both now and in the past. PM

[18] MACEDONIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ADMIT DEFEAT

Petkovski said in Skopje on 8 December that he concedes

the recent election to Boris Trajkovski, who is close to the

governing coalition (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 December

1999). Petkovski nonetheless added that "the conditions of

chaos and terror in western Macedonia, where violence took

over instead of democracy, have compelled me to make this

decision," AP reported. Western Macedonia is inhabited

primarily by ethnic Albanians, who voted overwhelmingly for

Trajkovski. PM

[19] CROATIAN MINISTER: SOMEONE WILL PAY FOR BUGGING

for bugging the office of parliamentary speaker Vlatko

Pavletic "will have to go to jail," "Slobodna Dalmacija" reported

on 9 December (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 December 1999).

Pavletic is also carrying out the duties of ailing President

Franjo Tudjman. Observers suggest that the bugging, which

has deeply angered Pavletic, is connected with a power

struggle within the governing Croatian Democratic Community

over the succession to Tudjman. Also on 9 December,

"Vecernji list" reported that Tudjman's heart has failed and

that doctors are keeping him alive only with great difficulty.

PM

[20] BOSNIAN SERB POLICE FOR UN PEACEKEEPING ABROAD

Milorad Dodik agreed in Banja Luka on 8 December that 11

Bosnian Serb police will soon take part in UN peacekeeping

operations in East Timor and Sierra Leone. Klein told

reporters that the men will represent Bosnia-Herzegovina,

not one of its two entities. Observers have long suggested

that the UN might seek to use some of the large number of

unemployed Bosnian young men with military training for

peacekeeping in other parts of the world. PM

[21] ROMANIAN RAILWAY STRIKE CONTINUES

strike on 8 December entered its third consecutive day as

union representatives failed to come to an agreement with

railway management, Rompres reported. Prime Minister Radu

Vasile told union leaders on 8 December that he will

intervene to resolve the dispute. At the same time, he noted

that railway workers are required by law to ensure that one-

third of normal railway service is maintained during the strike.

The Transport Ministry warned that disciplinary measures will

be taken against individual workers who violate the law

during the strike. VG

[22] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT SEARCHES FOR NEW PREMIER

almost all the country's parliamentary parties have agreed to

set up a "government of technocrats," BASA-Press reported.

Lucinschi, who was speaking after meeting the leaders of the

parliamentary parties, said he will soon call on a new prime

minister-designate to form a government. In other news, the

Molodaya Gvardia, a political group in the breakaway

Transdniester region, announced that it strongly opposes an

agreement signed by Russia at the recent OSCE summit to

withdraw its troops from the region by 2002, AP reported.

"The OSCE and the U.S. want to disarm us and then

exterminate us," said a statement by the group published in

"Moldavskie vedomosti." VG

[23] LUCINSCHI CALLS FOR URGENT RESOLUTION TO

Moldovan President Petru Lucinschi on 8

December called for urgent measures to reduce the

country's debts to the Russian supplier Gazprom, Infotag

reported. Lucinschi was responding to a threat from Gazprom

to reduce gas supplies if Moldova does not deal with its debt

problem. Moldova owes Gazprom some $183.6 million. The

acting Moldovan government announced after meeting with

Lucinschi that gas deliveries to debtor consumers in the

country will be cut to a minimum. VG

[24] COUNCIL OF EUROPE ISSUES CRITICAL REPORT ON

Two rapporteurs for the Council of Europe on 8

December praised Bulgaria's progress in some areas but

expressed concern over the amount of corruption in the

country. British parliamentary member David Atkinson and

Danish legislator Henning Gjellerod praised Bulgaria's

introduction of alternative military service, its abolition of the

death penalty, and the ratification of the Framework

Convention on National Minorities. However, Atkinson

expressed concern at the "widespread corruption"

associated with privatization and licensing practices. He also

noted "very real concerns" among the country's 800,000

ethnic Turks about "the lack of rights concerning their

language, their education, [and] their access to television.

They feel insufficiently represented in police and public

bodies." The rapporteurs also recommended that the

country's libel laws should be "decriminalized," saying those

found guilty of libel should be fined rather than imprisoned.

VG

[25] BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT PASSES BUDGET

National Assembly on 8 December passed the government's

draft budget by a vote of 134 to 80 in its first reading,

according to a Bulgarian Radio report cited by the BBC. In

other news, Bulgarian Defense Minister Georgi Ananiev met

with his visiting Polish counterpart, Janusz Onyszkiewicz, in

Sofia on 8 December, BTA reported. Onyszkiewicz said his

country will help Bulgaria in its preparations for NATO

membership. VG

[C] END NOTE

[26] AN OMINOUS ACCORD

A new "union treaty" signed on 8 December by Belarus

and the Russian Federation threatens the prospects for

democracy in both countries, stability across the post-Soviet

region, and relations between Moscow and the West.

The agreement, sought since 1996 by Belarusian leader

Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Russian President Boris Yeltsin,

allows each country to retain its sovereignty. But it calls for

the establishment of a confederal government consisting of a

supranational Supreme State Council and having a common

currency, tax, and customs and border procedures.

While the two sides continue to disagree on the scope

and speed of integration, there appears in both Minsk and

Moscow to be more willingness now than at any time in the

past to pursue the new union treaty. And that in turn

suggests the new union could take on a life of its own even if

not all its provisions are implemented.

On the one hand, both Belarusians and Russians are

likely to continue to struggle over the possibility of any

integration of their two countries, a fight that is increasingly

likely to define politics in these two countries. And on the

other, leaders in other post-Soviet states as well as in the

West seem certain to have to deal with the implications of

this first step toward the tighter reintegration of some or all

of the 12 former Soviet republics.

Regardless of how that debate develops over the

coming months, three things are already evident. First, this

union accord in itself undermines the prospects for

democracy in both Belarus and the Russian Federation. Not

only is Yeltsin likely to use it to keep himself in office beyond

the year 2000, but the increasing authoritarianism of Belarus

seems certain to spread eastward, a development that

concerns at least some Russians.

Stanislau Shushkevich, the former chairman of the

Belarusian parliament, said recently that Russia is the "main

guilty party" for the difficulties facing Belarus at present.

Shushkevich says Russia's "imperial way of thinking" has

united practically all political parties. And he says its drive for

integration with Belarus has enabled Belarusian authorities to

"fool the voters."

Even more, the drive for reintegration has prompted

Moscow to defend Lukashenka's authoritarian actions. For

example, Russia's human rights commissioner, Oleg Mironov,

visited Minsk recently to contest Western findings of massive

violations of human and civil rights in that country.

Mironov said his visit was intended to "dispel the myth"

that Belarus violates human rights. He failed to acknowledge

the Lukashenka regime's use of force to disperse anti-regime

demonstrations, the disappearance of several leading

opposition figures, and the regime's denouncement of

Western institutions for criticizing what Minsk is doing.

As it defends Belarusian behavior against the West,

Moscow will find it ever easier to sanction such behavior at

home, particularly in the context of its own massive violation

of human rights in the Chechen war and the Western criticism

it has received for such violations.

Second, the new union treaty in itself destabilizes the

post-Soviet region. This pact is openly revisionist in its

treatment of the disintegration of the USSR in 1991,

suggesting, as both Lukashenka and some Russian leaders

have argued, that other former Soviet republics should join

either a Slavic Union or something even broader.

Some leaders may be attracted to this idea, others may

be repelled, but all are certain to adjust their policies in

response to this new treaty. That is especially true if

Western governments take the position that this accord

could be ratified "democratically." Up to now, Western

countries have said that is a requirement, but they have not

made clear how such a poll could take place under

Lukashenka's rule.

But there is another way in which this accord might

destabilize the region. Several Russian analysts have already

suggested that some regions within Russia--including

Tatarstan--might ask to join the new union in order to get out

from under Moscow's tutelage and boost their own status.

Such a move could further threaten the integrity of the

Russian Federation itself and would certainly elicit a sharp

response from Moscow.

And third, not only the ways in which this accord will

reduce the prospects for democracy in both Belarus and the

Russian Federation but also the likelihood that it will

exacerbate tensions across the former Soviet space will

almost certainly contribute to increasing tensions between

Moscow and the West--tensions that as a result of Moscow's

campaign in Chechnya already are higher than at any point

since the collapse of the USSR.

Consequently, this latest Lukashenka-Yeltsin agreement,

even if it is never fully implemented, may mark a turning point

in the history of the entire international system. That may be

what the two signatories want, but it is certainly something

that many others, including a large number of Belarusians and

Russians, clearly fear.

09-12-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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