RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 177, 99-09-10

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 177, 10 September 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] DASHNAKTSUTYUN TO SUE FORMER ARMENIAN PRESIDENT FOR LIBEL

[02] ARMENIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY DENIES PLANNING TO SEND VOLUNTEERS

[03] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT OFFERS TO MEDIATE IN ABKHAZ CONFLICT

[04] TRIAL OF FORMER ARMENIAN INTERIOR MINISTER OPENS, ADJOURNS

[05] UNHCR TO REDUCE FUNDING FOR DISPLACED PERSONS IN AZERBAIJAN

[06] AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA DISCUSS WESTERN OIL EXPORT PIPELINE...

[07] ...AS NORTHERN PIPELINE CONTINUES TO OPERATE

[08] RUSSIA ACCUSES GEORGIA OF OBSTRUCTING WORK ON MILITARY BASES

[09] GEORGIAN FISHING CREW RELEASED

[10] FORMER KAZAKH PREMIER BARRED FROM RUNNING IN PARLIAMENTARY

[11] ...WHILE HIS PARTY BLAMES AUTHORITIES FOR LAWYER'S

[12] ...AND ANOTHER OPPOSITION POLITICIAN CALLS ON LEADERSHIP TO

[13] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT WANTS CLOSER ECONOMIC COOPERATION WITH

[14] NO DATE SET FOR TALKS BETWEEN KYRGYZ LEADERSHIP, GUERRILLAS

[15] KYRGYZ GOVERNMENT APPROVES DRAFT BUDGET FOR 2000

[16] UZBEKISTAN ACCUSES TAJIK OPPOSITION OF ABETTING GUERRILLAS

[17] TURKMENISTAN TO AMNESTY MORE PRISONERS

[18] JAPAN HOPES FOR STRONGER ECONOMIC TIES WITH UZBEKISTAN...

[19] ...WHILE IRAN ASSESSES PROSPECTS FOR TRANSPORT COOPERATION

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[20] MILOSEVIC PARTY: SERBIA WILL NOT INVADE KOSOVA

[21] MITROVICA CLASH LEAVES ONE DEAD

[22] UCK CLAIMS SOLE ROLE IN KOSOVA MILITARY

[23] SERBIAN COURTS INDICT KOSOVARS FOR 'TERRORISM'

[24] SERBIAN POLICE AGAIN BLOCK REFUGEE MARCH ON BELGRADE...

[25] ...AS WELL AS FOOD ON MONTENEGRIN BORDER

[26] MORE MASS GRAVES IN KOSOVA, BOSNIA

[27] SFOR GUARDS RETURNING MUSLIMS

[28] NO SFOR GUARANTEES FOR SRPSKA

[29] MUSLIMS DEMAND RECOGNITION IN CROATIA

[30] ALBANIAN RED CROSS INCREASES PROGRAMS FOR THE POOR

[31] ROMANIA RETALIATES AGAINST YUGOSLAVIA ON DANUBE RIVER

[32] COMPROMISE REACHED ON ROMANIAN RESTITUTION LAWS

[33] ORTHODOX CHURCH TO BE 'NATIONAL CHURCH' IN ROMANIA

[34] HUNGARY TO FINANCE UNIVERSITY IN ROMANIA

[35] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT OPTIMISTIC ON TRANSDNIESTER CONFLICT

[36] FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN BULGARIA BELOW EXPECTATIONS

[C] END NOTE

[37] MISSION IMPOSSIBLE?

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] DASHNAKTSUTYUN TO SUE FORMER ARMENIAN PRESIDENT FOR LIBEL

spokesman for the Armenian Revolutionary Federation-

Dashnaktsutyun (HHD) told RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau on 9

September that the party is about to bring a libel suit

against former President Levon Ter-Petrossian. Ter-Petrossian

had said early this year that he had suspended the party's

activities in December 1994 because it was "engaged in

terror." Some 30 HHD activists were arrested and brought to

trial in 1996-1997 on charges of murder and preparing a coup,

but the court failed to endorse the prosecutor's argument

that the party as a whole was responsible for those

activities. The HHD was legalized and its imprisoned members

released following Ter-Petrossian's forced resignation in

February 1998. LF

[02] ARMENIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY DENIES PLANNING TO SEND VOLUNTEERS

A spokesman for the Armenian Defense Ministry

on 10 September told RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau that there is no

truth to reports that it plans to send volunteers to fight

against Islamic militants in Daghestan. The Azerbaijani news

agency Turan had reported those alleged plans on 9 September.

Turan claimed the Armenian volunteers would pose as Russian

citizens of Armenian origin. LF

[03] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT OFFERS TO MEDIATE IN ABKHAZ CONFLICT

is prepared to mediate between Tbilisi and the leadership of

the breakaway Republic of Abkhazia if requested to do so by

the Georgian leadership. Kocharian noted that some 72,000

ethnic Armenians, or 15 percent of the total population,

lived in Abkhazia before the 1992-1993 war. He added that

Armenia has an economic interest in the reopening of rail

traffic from the Russian Federation via Abkhazia to Armenia.

LF

[04] TRIAL OF FORMER ARMENIAN INTERIOR MINISTER OPENS, ADJOURNS

chairman of the board of the Armenian Pan-National Movement,

opened in Yerevan on 9 September, but was immediately

adjourned until 17 September in order to enable Siradeghian

to engage a fifth defense counsel, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau

reported. Siradeghian is charged with ordering the murder of

several government officials and police officers from 1992 to

1996. He has denied those charges claiming that they are

politically motivated. LF

[05] UNHCR TO REDUCE FUNDING FOR DISPLACED PERSONS IN AZERBAIJAN

UN High Commissioner for Refugees Sadako Ogata said that

funding for those Azerbaijanis forced to flee during the

Karabakh war will be cut back, according to Turan. The UNHCR

estimates the number of displaced persons at 800,000, while

the Azerbaijani authorities says it exceeds one million. She

noted that the UN has supplied $41 million in humanitarian

aid to Azerbaijan, which is more than it granted to Armenia

or Georgia. Such assistance is intended as a temporary

measure pending a political solution to the conflict that

would enable the displaced persons to return to their homes,

Ogata said. Aliev had asked that assistance to the displaced

persons be increased. LF

[06] AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA DISCUSS WESTERN OIL EXPORT PIPELINE...

Georgian International Oil Corporation issued a joint

statement after talks in Tbilisi on 9 September reaffirming

their shared commitment to construction of the Baku-Ceyhan

oil export pipeline, Interfax reported. Some international

companies engaged in Azerbaijan's sector of the Caspian are

reportedly reluctant to make a firm commitment to that

pipeline. But on 5 September, Georgian Foreign Ministry

spokesman Avtandil Napetvaridze rejected as misinformation

reports that either Georgia or Azerbaijan or "foreign

partners" seek to revise plans for that project, according to

ITAR-TASS. LF

[07] ...AS NORTHERN PIPELINE CONTINUES TO OPERATE

official said on 8 September that the fighting in Daghestan

has not yet negatively affected the transportation of

Azerbaijani oil via Daghestan to Novorossiisk, Interfax

reported the following day. A spokesman for the Russian

pipeline operator Transneft similarly said that the

hostilities in Daghestan are 80 km from the railroad that

transports Azerbaijan's crude. He said Azerbaijan exported

1.4 million metric tons of oil via Russia during the first

six months of this year, and 52,000 tons last month.

Azerbaijan's quota for 1999 is 2.2 million metric tons. LF

[08] RUSSIA ACCUSES GEORGIA OF OBSTRUCTING WORK ON MILITARY BASES

government over the detention since 23 August at the Russian-

Georgian frontier of a convoy of over 200 trucks carrying

supplies for Russian military bases in Georgia, Interfax

reported on 9 September. Tbilisi disclaimed responsibility

for the delay in allowing the convoy to enter Georgia, which

it blamed on the British ITS company that now operates

Georgia's customs service (see also "End Note" below). LF

[09] GEORGIAN FISHING CREW RELEASED

boat was intercepted in April in what Abkhazia claims are its

territorial waters were exchanged on 8 September for five

Abkhaz police held hostage in Georgia, Caucasus Press

reported the following day quoting the independent Rustavi-2

TV station (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 April and 25 August

1999). LF

[10] FORMER KAZAKH PREMIER BARRED FROM RUNNING IN PARLIAMENTARY

Kazakhstan's Central Electoral Commission

registered the list of candidates for the 10 October

elections to the lower house of the Kazakh parliament

submitted by the Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan

shortly before expiry of the deadline for registration on 9

September, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau reported. But the

commission refused to register party chairman Akezhan

Kazhegeldin as a candidate. The party therefore announced

that it will boycott the poll. In a telephone interview with

"RFE/RL Newsline" on 9 September, Kazhegeldin predicted that

he would not be allowed to participate in the poll.

Kazhegeldin said that the present Kazakh leadership is

compromised by a series of major economic and foreign policy

errors, including the sale of MiG aircraft to North Korea,

and would rather incur the disapproval of the international

community by restricting election participation than risk

losing power in a free and fair poll. LF

[11] ...WHILE HIS PARTY BLAMES AUTHORITIES FOR LAWYER'S

Also on 9 September, the Republican People's

Party of Kazakhstan issued a statement in Almaty

characterizing the decision of Kazhegeldin's lawyer, Vitalii

Voronov, to leave the party and break all ties with the

former premier as "an episode in the uncompromising political

struggle which the party is waging against the ruling

regime," according to Interfax. LF

[12] ...AND ANOTHER OPPOSITION POLITICIAN CALLS ON LEADERSHIP TO

Seydakhmet Quttyqadam, who heads the opposition Orleu

party, told a press conference in Almaty on 9 September that

"the time has come for the president and the government to

resign," according to Interfax. He added that Kazakhstan has

"enough competent, respected, and energetic politicians" to

lead the country out of the present crisis. Quttyqadam also

said that the government should immediately start drafting a

concept for protecting Kazakhstan's statehood, RFE/RL's

bureau in the former capital reported. Both Quttyqadam and

Kazhegeldin fear that Kazakhstan is ripe for social or

interethnic conflict. LF

[13] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT WANTS CLOSER ECONOMIC COOPERATION WITH

Meeting on 9 September in Astana with a visiting

delegation from Dniprodzerzhinsk, Nursultan Nazarbaev

advocated reviving traditional economic cooperation between

the two countries, Interfax reported. Nazarbaev said that

cooperation is currently hindered by the high railroad

tariffs Russia imposes on foreign goods. Nazarbaev is

scheduled to visit Kyiv next week for talks on the export of

Kazakh crude to Ukraine for refining at the Lisichansk

refinery. LF

[14] NO DATE SET FOR TALKS BETWEEN KYRGYZ LEADERSHIP, GUERRILLAS

Akunov, who is acting as an intermediary between the

country's leadership and the ethnic Uzbek guerrillas

entrenched in the south of the country, told RFE/RL's Bishkek

bureau on 10 September that no firm date has been set for

talks on the release of the 12 hostages whom the guerrillas

still hold. Akunov said that there are now no more than 200-

300 Uzbek militants remaining in Batken Raion in southern

Kyrgyzstan. He added that the four Japanese geologists and

the Kyrgyz Interior Ministry general whom the guerrillas

seized three weeks ago are still alive. Some 2,000 of the

estimated 5,000 Kyrgyz villagers who fled their homes to

avoid being taken hostage by the guerrillas have now returned

to their villages from the town of Batken, according to

Reuters. A further 2,400 have returned to villages in Chon-

Alai Raion, where no guerrillas remain. LF

[15] KYRGYZ GOVERNMENT APPROVES DRAFT BUDGET FOR 2000

Minister Oktyabr Mederov told a cabinet meeting on 9

September that the draft budget for 2000 envisages a budget

surplus equal to 2.5 percent of GDP, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau

reported. It is the first deficit-free budget ever proposed

by the government. Revenues are predicted to rise by 12

percent compared with 1999, and spending will be cut by 17

percent. Industrial output should grow by at 2 percent, and

agricultural production by 5 percent, according to Interfax.

The inflation rate is estimated at 12 percent. LF

[16] UZBEKISTAN ACCUSES TAJIK OPPOSITION OF ABETTING GUERRILLAS

September said that members of the United Tajik Opposition

are behind the hostage-takers in southern Kyrgyzstan, and not

the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, as the Kyrgyz authorities

claim, Reuters reported. The paper claimed that the

guerrillas were armed by the UTO and are receiving supplies

of arms and ammunition from areas of Tajikistan controlled by

the Tajik opposition. LF

[17] TURKMENISTAN TO AMNESTY MORE PRISONERS

Saparmurat Niyazov told a cabinet meeting on 9 September that

he will pardon and amnesty a further 12,000 prisoners before

the end of 1999, RFE/RL's Turkmen Service reported. Some

22,000 prisoners, or more than half the entire prison

population, have been freed from the country's overcrowded

jails in two separate amnesties earlier this year. Many of

them were jailed for drug-related offenses. LF

[18] JAPAN HOPES FOR STRONGER ECONOMIC TIES WITH UZBEKISTAN...

journalists that her country is interested in expanding trade

with Uzbekistan, which last year stood at $122 million,

Interfax reported on 8 September. Nakayama said that 16

Japanese companies currently have offices in Tashkent, but a

further increase in investment is unlikely because the Uzbek

currency is not fully convertible. Japan has invested over $1

billion in Uzbekistan since 1995, of which the Japanese

government invested some $334 million. Nakayama said the

Japanese and Uzbek governments will sign agreements later

this month under which Japan will fund communications

programs in Uzbekistan and rebuild three airports. LF

[19] ...WHILE IRAN ASSESSES PROSPECTS FOR TRANSPORT COOPERATION

Transport Minister Mahmud Hojati-Najafabadi is currently

visiting Tashkent, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 9

September. The delegation will meet with representatives of

the Uzbek government and the national railroad and airline.

LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[20] MILOSEVIC PARTY: SERBIA WILL NOT INVADE KOSOVA

who is spokesman for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's

Socialist Party of Serbia, said in Belgrade on 9 September

that the government will not intervene militarily in Kosova,

the Frankfurt-based Serbian daily "Vesti" reported (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 8 September 1999). Dacic stressed that

Serbia will observe its responsibilities under UN Security

Council Resolution 1244. The Serbian authorities are

confident that KFOR will eventually leave the province. In

the meantime, no one should make the mistake of thinking that

Serbia has turned its back on Kosova, he concluded. PM

[21] MITROVICA CLASH LEAVES ONE DEAD

three were injured in clashes between Albanians and Serbs in

the divided town of Mitrovica on 9 September, a KFOR

spokesman said the following day. (Reuters reported from

Mitrovica that 68 ethnic Albanians had been hurt.) Some 15

French soldiers and police were also injured as they tried to

separate the two groups. A KFOR spokesman said that it is not

clear who fired the shots that hit the Albanians. A NATO

official noted that Serbian paramilitaries are present in

northern Mitrovica. Meanwhile in Prishtina, a KFOR spokesman

confirmed that the elderly woman shot by members of the

Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) in Suhareka recently was a Rom

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 September 1999). PM

[22] UCK CLAIMS SOLE ROLE IN KOSOVA MILITARY

who is the UCK's chief-of-staff, said in Prishtina on 9

September that NATO has an obligation to the UCK because of

the role the guerrillas played in the recent conflict. He

added: "Based on the agreements on the demilitarization [of

the UCK], the transformation will continue toward creating

some institutions in Kosova. The basis for this is the

contribution that the UCK made to the war, a contribution

that the international community must respect." Ceku stressed

that the UCK "will be the only foundation on which the

institutions of Kosova will be created." He said these

institutions will include a "defense unit" of at least 5,000

members to deal with natural disasters and "defend [the

ethnic Albanians] from aggression," AP reported (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 9 September 1999). A NATO official said that the

"tasks and forms [of the new force] have yet to be

discussed." Russian officials have called the continuation of

the UCK in any form "unacceptable." PM

[23] SERBIAN COURTS INDICT KOSOVARS FOR 'TERRORISM'

September, Serbian authorities in Leskovac and Pozarevac

indicted one and 13 ethnic Albanians, respectively, for

"terrorism." The authorities charged that the 14 were members

of the UCK. The Red Cross previously confirmed that more than

2,000 Kosovars are being held in Serbian prisons (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 13 August 1999). Among them is student leader

Albin Kurti. The June agreement that ended the conflict did

not require Belgrade to free prisoners or provide information

about them. PM

[24] SERBIAN POLICE AGAIN BLOCK REFUGEE MARCH ON BELGRADE...

the second day in a row, Serbian police on 9 September

prevented some 400 to 700 homeless Serbian refugees from

Kosova from marching on Belgrade (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9

September 1999). The refugees ignored police roadblocks in

Kraljevo but were finally stopped in Cacak, some 30

kilometers to the north. Milan Nenadovic, who is the

government's deputy commissioner for refugees, told the

refugees that their lack of shelter is a "problem caused by

NATO bombs," London's "The Guardian" reported. He told the

refugees: "You are in no position to make any demands." In

Belgrade, the opposition Democratic Party charged in a

statement that Milosevic's regime finds the refugees to be an

embarrassing reminder of his failed policies. The next day,

Nenadovic told AP that the refugees have agreed to split up

into smaller groups and accept accomodation in Uzice and

Pozega. PM

[25] ...AS WELL AS FOOD ON MONTENEGRIN BORDER

also maintaining a "total blockade" of the border with

Montenegro at Kolovrat. They turn back shipments of food,

even those that have been paid for, "Vesti" reported on 10

September, quoting unnamed local sources. PM

[26] MORE MASS GRAVES IN KOSOVA, BOSNIA

experts are excavating a site at Kotina near the Macedonian

border, AP reported on 9 September. Some 22 ethnic Albanian

males whom Serbian forces gunned down in March are believed

to be buried there. In Sarajevo, a UN forensics teams has

unearthed a mass grave at an undisclosed location in

northeast Bosnia. A UN spokeswoman said that the grave

contains the remains of about 60 people killed after the fall

of Srebrenica to Serbian forces in July 1995. PM

[27] SFOR GUARDS RETURNING MUSLIMS

peacekeepers arrived in Kula Fazlagica, near Gacko, on 9

September to protect 50 returning Muslim residents. The

Muslims have been shelled and subjected to gunfire in recent

days (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 9 September 1999). PM

[28] NO SFOR GUARANTEES FOR SRPSKA

representatives took part in a meeting with SFOR and Bosnian

federation military officials in Sarajevo on 9 September (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 9 September 1999). The officers from the

Republika Srpska attended the meeting even though NATO would

not give them the guarantees they demanded of immunity from

arrest for war crimes. A SFOR spokesman said that such

guarantees can come only from the Hague-based war crimes

tribunal, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM

[29] MUSLIMS DEMAND RECOGNITION IN CROATIA

Party of Democratic Action (SDA) said in Zagreb on 9

September that members of Croatia's Muslim population may

boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections unless they

receive the status of a legally recognized national minority.

The spokesmen said that there are about 45,000 Muslims in

Croatia, or about 1 percent of the total population.

Observers note that it is difficult to see what the boycott

would achieve, except to play into the hands of the governing

Croatian Democratic Community. PM

[30] ALBANIAN RED CROSS INCREASES PROGRAMS FOR THE POOR

Albanian Red Cross has stepped up efforts to provide food aid

to poor families in Albania. The chairman of the Red Cross

office in Albania, Shyqyri Subashi, told Reuters on 8

September that his organization has distributed 23,000 food

parcels to Albanian citizens since January. The Red Cross

plans to give out a total of 90,000 packages by the end of

the year. Such programs thus reach about 3 percent of

Albania's population. FS

[31] ROMANIA RETALIATES AGAINST YUGOSLAVIA ON DANUBE RIVER

announced that Romania will block all Yugoslav ships anchored

in the Black Sea port of Constanta and will prohibit Yugoslav

vessels from sailing to Constanta on the Danube-Black Sea

channel. The measure is being taken in retaliation for

Yugoslavia's blocking of Romanian vessels near Novi Sad and

prohibition on Romanian vessels to the Dunav-Tisa-Dunav

bypass of the Danube River, which is blocked by wrecks of

bridges destroyed by NATO air strikes, RFE/RL's Bucharest

bureau reported. Earlier on 9 September, Bulgarian

Transportation Minister Wilhelm Kraus proposed a trilateral

Bulgarian-Romanian-Ukrainian meeting to discuss introducing

reciprocal steps against Yugoslavia, BTA reported. MS

[32] COMPROMISE REACHED ON ROMANIAN RESTITUTION LAWS

meeting of leaders of parliamentary parties with President

Emil Constantinescu on 9 September, presidential spokesman

Razvan Popescu said that opinions "have been bridged" and

that the ongoing parliamentary debates on restitution will

now be "a lot easier." He said the participants agreed on a

three-week deadline for the Senate to end debates on the

restitution of property confiscated by the communists and

incorporated in the state farms, following which the senate

is to begin debates on the law on restitution or compensation

for real estate that has already been approved by the Chamber

of Deputies, Romanian Radio reported. MS

[33] ORTHODOX CHURCH TO BE 'NATIONAL CHURCH' IN ROMANIA

government on 9 September approved a draft bill on religious

cults and religious freedom. The bill stipulates that the

Romanian Orthodox Church is the country's "National Church,"

Romanian radio reported. A spokesman for the Romanian

Patriarchate said the stipulation does not grant any

privileges to the Orthodox Church and only reflects the fact

that this is "the Church of the majority of this nation." MS

[34] HUNGARY TO FINANCE UNIVERSITY IN ROMANIA

chairman of the Office for Hungarians Beyond Borders, said in

Cluj on 10 September that Hungary will contribute 2 billion

forint ($8.3 million) for the financing of a Hungarian-

language private university in Romania, Mediafax reported.

Szabo said that it has not yet been decided in what

Transylvanian locality the university is to be set up,

adding, however, that Cluj is "an important recipient of

allocations" offered by the Hungarian government. MS

[35] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT OPTIMISTIC ON TRANSDNIESTER CONFLICT

mission chief to Moldova, William Hill, that he is optimistic

about finding a solution to the dispute with the

Transdniester separatists, Infotag reported. Lucinschi said

that the accords reached at the Kyiv July summit stipulate

that the conflict must be settled on the principle of a

single state, with a single economic, legal, and defense

structure and that the dialogue must now proceed on that

basis. During his visit to Moscow earlier this month, he

said, the possibility of setting up a Russian base in the

Transdniester was not discussed, as this would be contrary to

the constitutional provision that Moldova is a neutral state.

He said that the Russian leadership confirmed its backing of

settling the dispute with the separatists by granting

Transdniester a special status "within an indivisible

Moldova." MS

[36] FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN BULGARIA BELOW EXPECTATIONS

direct foreign investment in the first half of 1999 amounts

to $320.8 million, almost half of the expected $600 million,

BTA reported on 9 September, citing Foreign Investment Agency

chairman Ilian Vasiliev. Vasiliev said that compared to 1998,

direct foreign investment was 30 percent higher. He said that

the agency still hopes that by end of 1999, the total figure

will be $1.2 billion. Germany is the leading investor in

Bulgaria, followed by Cyprus, the U.K., and Ireland. Most of

the investments (50 percent) are concentrated in Sofia. MS

[C] END NOTE

[37] MISSION IMPOSSIBLE?

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov toured the capitals

of the three South Caucasus states last week in what many

observers both in those countries and elsewhere saw as a

desperate attempt on Moscow's part to halt, if not reverse,

the ongoing erosion of its influence in the region. Ivanov's

stated objective of establishing "all-encompassing,

equitable, and mutually advantageous" relations with all

three states in the region is, however, unrealistic and

untenable, given the suspicions two of those countries

(Azerbaijan and Georgia) harbor concerning Russia's motives

and given the unresolved conflict between Armenia and

Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

The existing tensions in Moscow's relations with

Azerbaijan and Georgia derive from those two countries' pro-

Western orientation and from their belief that Moscow has

sought to manipulate the Karabakh and Abkhaz conflicts in

order to weaken them. Georgia and Azerbaijan have both made

no secret of their desire to join NATO. Georgia is seeking

the closure--on its own terms--of at least two of the four

Russian military bases on its soil, while Azerbaijan wants

Moscow to reduce its defense cooperation with Armenia, in

particular by demanding the return of several billion dollars

worth of weaponry clandestinely supplied to that country from

1994-1996. Moreover, both Georgia and Azerbaijan announced

earlier this year that they have no interest in renewing

their membership in the CIS Collective Security Treaty.

In addition, those two countries are founding members of

the GUUAM alignment, which many Russian politicians believe

is intended to sabotage the CIS from within. Another priority

of the GUUAM member states that is likewise anathema to

Moscow is cooperation in exporting Caspian oil and gas to

international markets via countries other than the Russian

Federation.

In talks with Ivanov in Baku on 2 September,

Azerbaijan's President Heidar Aliev harshly criticized what

he termed Russia's differentiated approach to relations with

Armenia and Azerbaijan and its "passive" policy toward the

South Caucasus. That region, Aliev said, is no less strategic

than the Balkans. Aliev told Ivanov that Baku expects Moscow

to galvanize the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group to find a

settlement to the Karabakh conflict, adding that his own

direct talks with his Armenian counterpart, Robert Kocharian,

are no substitute for such mediation. (Ivanov had said before

his meeting with Aliev that he considers those direct talks

"the best way" to resolve the conflict.) At the same time,

Aliev noted that Moscow's increasingly close military

cooperation with Armenia "is complicating the negotiating

process on Nagorno-Karabakh."

Ivanov, for his part, replied that Moscow "understands

perfectly" that its defense cooperation with Armenia is a

sensitive issue for Azerbaijan and the entire South Caucasus,

stressing that it is not aimed at Azerbaijan or any other

third country. He called for closer contacts between the

defense and other power ministries of Russia and Azerbaijan.

Ivanov also said that Moscow does not intend to favor either

Armenia or Azerbaijan in seeking a solution to the Karabakh

conflict.

Whether Ivanov made any concrete concession to specific

Azerbaijani concerns is unclear. After the talks, however,

Aliev struck a more conciliatory note, describing bilateral

relations as "friendly." He added that, despite

disagreements, Baku will continue its strategic policy of

strengthening cooperation with Russia.

In Tbilisi two days later, Georgian officials similarly

made it clear to Ivanov that they consider the current state

of bilateral relations unacceptable and that Moscow is to

blame for that state of affairs. Parliamentary speaker Zurab

Zhvania pointed out, for example, that for five years the

Russian State Duma has declined to ratify the 1994 Georgian-

Russian agreement on friendship and cooperation. But, as in

Baku, it was the Russian military that proved the fundamental

bone of contention. Some Georgian opposition parliamentary

deputies, together with the chairman of the parliamentary

Defense and Security Committee, Revaz Adamia, have proposed

that at least two of the existing four Russian bases in

Georgia should be closed. The U.S. has indicated that it may

be prepared to meet part of the cost of doing so.

But some Russian politicians have attempted to call

Tbilisi's bluff. Adamia told the Russian newspaper "Vremya

MN" last month that former Russian Premier Sergei Stepashin

responded to Tbilisi's demand to reduce its military presence

in Georgia by proposing to close at first the Russian

military facility in Akhalkalaki. That base is virtually the

sole employer for most of the disaffected Armenian population

of that region.

Ivanov made it clear that as far as Moscow is concerned,

a withdrawal of its troops from Georgia is not on the agenda,

since their presence there "serves Russia's interests." There

were no reports on how Georgian officials responded to his

offer to raise the level of military cooperation between

Russia and Georgia to that between Russia and Armenia.

By contrast, Ivanov expressed satisfaction after his

talks in Yerevan with President Kocharian and Foreign

Minister Vartan Oskanian with the level of cooperation

between countries that he termed "strategic partners."

In all three capitals, Ivanov discussed the situation

throughout the Caucasus, stressing the need for cooperation

between the countries and republics there to restore

stability to the entire region. But the priorities of those

various republics and states are so diverse and the

centripetal process in Chechnya so far advanced, that

stability appears utopian. And Ivanov's statement that "it is

impossible to settle conflicts in this region without Russia

or against its interests" will inevitably be construed by

many politicians in the North and South Caucasus as a threat

rather than a promise.

10-09-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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