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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 145, 99-07-28

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next Article

From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 145, 28 July 1999


CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

  • [01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT ASSESSES DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLICY
  • [02] AZERBAIJAN SETS DATE FOR MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS
  • [03] AZERBAIJANI FRONTIER RESIDENTS PROTEST POST-SHOOTING
  • [04] KAZAKH LEADERS ASSESS ECONOMIC SHORTFALL...
  • [05] ...SOFT-PEDAL ON PRIVATIZATION OF AGRICULTURAL LAND
  • [06] KYRGYZSTAN UNVEILS FOOD PROGRAM
  • [07] KYRGYZSTAN RISKS FORFEITING UN VOTING RIGHT
  • [08] TURKMEN PRESIDENT APPROVES DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

  • [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

  • [09] CROATIAN MINISTER REJECTS HAGUE CHARGES AGAINST TUDJMAN
  • [10] BOSNIAN CROAT LEADER SAYS EXTREMISTS FOLLOWED ZAGREB'S
  • [11] BOSNIA READY FOR SUMMIT...
  • [12] ...AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
  • [13] WESTENDORP: BOSNIA NEEDS WORK
  • [14] AVRAMOVIC URGES AID FOR SERBIA
  • [15] OPPOSITION DRAFTS STABILITY PLAN FOR SERBIA
  • [16] BELGRADE PLANNING WAVE OF TRIALS?
  • [17] UNHCR CONCERNED FOR SERBIAN REFUGEES
  • [18] MAJOR KOSOVA ATROCITY CONFIRMED
  • [19] KFOR FINDS UCK ARMS CACHE
  • [20] ALBANIA'S BERISHA CALLS FOR CONSENSUS
  • [21] ALBANIAN PRESIDENT SEEKS AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL WEALTH
  • [22] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION LEADER BLASTS KOSOVA POLICIES
  • [23] ROMANIA, ARMENIA SIGN DEFENSE AGREEMENT
  • [24] KURDISH REBELS THREATEN MOLDOVA...
  • [25] ...WHILE LUCINSCHI CANCELS TURKEY VACATION
  • [26] U.S. VICE PRESIDENT LAUDS BULGARIA
  • [27] BULGARIAN DEPUTY TO LOSE IMMUNITY?

  • [C] END NOTE

  • [28] THE SEDAKA DOCTRINE VERSUS THE LAW OF ENTROPY

  • [A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

    [01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT ASSESSES DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLICY

    In an

    interview with "Moskovskie novosti" cited by Noyan Tapan on

    27 July, Robert Kocharian expressed satisfaction at the

    domestic political stability resulting from the 31 May

    parliamentary elections. Kocharian stressed his respect for

    parliamentary speaker Karen Demirchian and noted the

    willingness of the Miasnutyun faction, of which Demirchian is

    co-leader, to cooperate with other political forces.

    Kocharian said he anticipates that Armenia will be admitted

    to full membership in the Council of Europe in late 1999 or

    early next year. He expressed doubt that NATO will accept

    Baku's invitation to establish a military base in Azerbaijan

    and declined to comment on the possibility of routing a

    Caspian oil pipeline via Armenia, stressing that the oil

    export should not be linked to the search for a solution to

    the Karabakh conflict. Kocharian also stressed Armenia's

    readiness to establish diplomatic relations with Turkey. LF

    [02] AZERBAIJAN SETS DATE FOR MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

    President

    Heidar Aliev signed a decree on 27 July scheduling the

    country's long-overdue municipal elections for 12 December,

    ITAR-TASS reported. Aliev also signed into law the bill on

    municipal elections passed by the parliament on 2 July (see

    "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 July 1999). The local elections to

    between 3,500-4,000 municipal councils will be conducted

    under the majoritarian system. Speaking at a news conference

    in Baku on 25 July, parliamentary speaker Murtuz Alesqerov

    dismissed as "slanderous" claims made two days earlier by

    National Independence Party of Azerbaijan chairman Etibar

    Mamedov that changes recommended by the Council of Europe

    were made to 14 articles of the bill after it had been passed

    by the parliament. LF

    [03] AZERBAIJANI FRONTIER RESIDENTS PROTEST POST-SHOOTING

    CRACKDOWN

    Representatives of residents of the town of

    Sadarak, on the border between Azerbaijan's exclave of

    Nakhichevan and Turkey, told journalists on 27 July that

    tensions in the district remain high following the 12 July

    disturbances in which one person was killed and dozens

    injured, Turan reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 July

    1999). The villagers claimed that residents are being

    arbitrarily detained by police for questioning, and they

    demanded the dismissal of the local customs official they

    believe is responsible for the fighting. They also demanded

    that Azerbaijani President Aliev take control of the

    investigation into the incident. The official originally

    appointed to conduct the investigation has been dismissed,

    according to Turan. LF

    [04] KAZAKH LEADERS ASSESS ECONOMIC SHORTFALL...

    Kazakhstan's

    Prime Minister Nurlan Balghymbaev told a cabinet session on

    27 July that in the first six months of 1999, Astana and 10

    of the country's 14 oblasts registered a decline in output,

    compared with the same period in 1998, Interfax reported.

    Budget revenues amounted to 86 percent of the planned amount,

    and the total taxes collected are inadequate to fund all

    state programs. On the plus side, Finance Minister Uraz

    Dzhandosov told the cabinet meeting that Kazakhstan earned

    almost $190 million from privatization during the first half

    of the year. He said the government's share in another 10

    major companies, mostly in the oil and mining sector, will

    also be sold off. Oil and production during the first six

    months totaled 14.2 million tons, which was 5.5 percent above

    the figure for 1998 but still short of the planned 14.27

    million tons. LF

    [05] ...SOFT-PEDAL ON PRIVATIZATION OF AGRICULTURAL LAND

    Balghymbaev also told his cabinet colleagues on 27 July that

    the majority of the country's population is neither morally

    nor financially ready for the privatization of land, which he

    said will therefore be implemented "stage by stage,"

    according to Interfax. He hinted that the new law on

    privatization of land will favor those engaged in the

    agricultural sector and bar the sale of land for other

    purposes, including "the burying of poisonous waste." LF

    [06] KYRGYZSTAN UNVEILS FOOD PROGRAM

    First Deputy Prime Minister

    Boris Silaev outlined Kyrgyzstan's national food program at

    an international conference in Bishkek on 27 July, Interfax

    reported. The program, for which the EU has provided a grant

    of 8.5 million euros [$8.55 million], is intended to ensure

    uninterrupted supplies of basic foods to all regions of the

    country. Silaev noted that the present problems and delays in

    doing so could negatively affect political stability. LF

    [07] KYRGYZSTAN RISKS FORFEITING UN VOTING RIGHT

    Kyrgyzstan owes

    the UN $1 million in membership fees and will be stripped of

    its voting right unless it pays at least half that sum by

    September, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported on 27 July. UN

    representative Zamira Eshmambetova told journalists in the

    Kyrgyz capital that the country has no funds to pay the debt.

    Georgia had its UN voting right restored last week after

    paying its annual $200,000 membership dues but still has

    outstanding debts to the UN totaling $7.2 million, according

    to Interfax on 22 July. LF

    [08] TURKMEN PRESIDENT APPROVES DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

    At a cabinet

    session on 27 July, Saparmurat Niyazov approved

    Turkmenistan's development program for 2001-2010, Russian

    agencies reported. That program entails massive increases in

    the extraction of oil and natural gas, with production of the

    former slated to rise from 6.3 million tons to 27-30 million

    tons. The increase in gas production is presumably predicated

    on implementation of the planed Trans-Caspian gas pipeline

    project, for which the Georgian government expressed support

    on 27 July. More moderate increases are anticipated in cotton

    and grain production. The country's population is expected to

    increase from the present 5 million to 6.5 million in 2005.

    LF


    [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

    [09] CROATIAN MINISTER REJECTS HAGUE CHARGES AGAINST TUDJMAN

    Justice Minister Zvonimir Separovic said in Zagreb on 27 July

    that the Hague-based war crimes tribunal has become a "means

    of political pressure against a sovereign Croatia by those

    who stand behind" the court, "Jutarnji list" reported. He did

    not elaborate. Separovic was responding to comments by a

    court prosecutor that Croatian President Franjo Tudjman is

    ultimately responsible for the actions of the Herzegovinian

    Croat military in Bosnia during the 1992-1995 war (see

    "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 27 July 1999). Major Zagreb dailies

    quote several other Tudjman supporters as also accusing the

    court of playing politics. According to the same newspapers,

    several opposition politicians and journalists stress that

    the court is a politically neutral institution and that

    justice must be allowed to take its course. PM

    [10] BOSNIAN CROAT LEADER SAYS EXTREMISTS FOLLOWED ZAGREB'S

    ORDERS

    Stjepan Kljuic, who was the moderate political leader

    of the republic's ethnic Croats until he resigned in February

    1992, told the tribunal in The Hague on 27 July that the

    hard-line leadership of the Croatian Democratic Community

    (HDZ) carried out Zagreb's policies during the 1992-1995 war.

    These polices included seeking a deal with the Bosnian Serb

    leadership to partition the republic between the Croats and

    Serbs at the expense of the Muslims, Kljuic added. He said

    that Zagreb's top representatives in the Herzegovinian HDZ

    were Dario Kordic and the late Mate Boban. PM

    [11] BOSNIA READY FOR SUMMIT...

    Ante Jelavic, Alija Izetbegovic,

    and Zivko Radisic, who are the three members of the joint

    presidency, said in Sarajevo on 27 July that preparations are

    complete for the 29-30 July summit on Balkan reconstruction

    and stability. Foreign Minister Jadranko Prlic noted that

    representatives from the Balkan countries participating in

    the summit have agreed on a final declaration, which stresses

    democratization and human rights. The only point in the text

    on which the participants have yet to agree is that dealing

    with Serbia and the war in Kosova. Prlic added that he

    expects the participants to reach agreement on that point by

    the time the conference opens, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

    reported. Some 4,000 SFOR troops will provide security for

    the gathering, a NATO spokesman said. PM

    [12] ...AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

    Both houses of the Bosnian

    parliament passed a resolution on 27 July calling on all

    government bodies to do everything possible to fulfill the

    conditions necessary for Bosnia's admission to the Council of

    Europe. The lower house passed a resolution urging the

    presidency to negotiate agreements on dual citizenship with

    Zagreb and Belgrade as soon as diplomatic relations are

    established with Yugoslavia. The lower house also approved a

    law on Bosnian citizenship, which the international

    community's Carlos Westendorp previously issued as a decree.

    PM

    [13] WESTENDORP: BOSNIA NEEDS WORK

    The international community's

    Carlos Westendorp said at the UN in New York on 27 July that

    there will soon be "social unrest" in Bosnia unless the more

    than 40 percent unemployment rate is cut. He stressed that

    privatization and foreign investment are the keys to creating

    jobs, AP reported. Westendorp noted that the authorities have

    done little to promote free enterprise and that Bosnia

    suffers from a lack of entrepreneurs. PM

    [14] AVRAMOVIC URGES AID FOR SERBIA

    Dragoslav Avramovic, who

    stopped hyperinflation during his tenure as National Bank

    director in 1994, told the "Berliner Zeitung" of 28 July that

    continuing economic isolation of Serbia will lead to a

    worsening of social conditions. That development, in turn,

    will not necessarily bring about the overthrow of Yugoslav

    President Slobodan Milosevic but will certainly contribute to

    growing anti-foreign sentiments among the population.

    Avramovic stressed that Serbia needs hard currency to buy

    fuel and raw materials for its industries. He argued that

    expanded industrial output is the key to reviving Serbia's

    economy. Many observers believe that the prestigious and

    popular elderly banker will head the first post-Milosevic

    government. Avramovic will attend the Balkan summit as the

    guest of Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari. PM

    [15] OPPOSITION DRAFTS STABILITY PLAN FOR SERBIA

    Some 17

    economists, opposition leaders, intellectuals, and

    representatives of the Serbian Orthodox Church announced in

    Belgrade on 27 July that they have drafted a stability plan

    for Serbia, Reuters reported. The text calls for a package of

    political and economic reforms. The first step would be to

    set up a transitional government with a one-year mandate to

    create the legal and political conditions for free and

    democratic elections. A spokesman for the group stressed that

    Serbia must avoid what he called a "Bucharest scenario," a

    reference to the violent overthrow of Romanian dictator

    Nicolae Ceausescu in December 1989. PM

    [16] BELGRADE PLANNING WAVE OF TRIALS?

    Biljana Kovacevic-Vuco, who

    heads the Yugoslav Human Rights Lawyers' Committee, said in

    Belgrade on 27 July that the authorities are preparing legal

    proceedings against up to 28,000 men for having refused to

    answer their military call-up notices during the war in

    Kosova. She stressed that the authorities plan to use legal

    measures to punish members of the opposition. On 28 July,

    Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic appeared before the

    Supreme Military Court to answer charges of draft-dodging. He

    told reporters that he hopes that the publicity from his

    trial will serve to hasten the end of the Milosevic regime.

    The previous day, he said on Montenegrin Television that "the

    army must urgently do everything it can to remove Milosevic

    from power if it wants to defend the country." PM

    [17] UNHCR CONCERNED FOR SERBIAN REFUGEES

    A UNHCR spokesman said

    in Belgrade on 27 July that his agency urgently needs $20

    million to obtain food and shelter for some 173,000 Serbian

    and Roma refugees from Kosova. He added that the UNCHR does

    not know where all the refugees are or what needs they have.

    He added that the Serbian government "has made no

    preparation" for helping the refugees through the winter. The

    spokesman said that most refugees are housed in schools and

    will need new quarters once the school year begins, Reuters

    reported. PM

    [18] MAJOR KOSOVA ATROCITY CONFIRMED

    The New York-based

    organization Human Rights Watch published a 25-page report on

    27 July confirming earlier reports that Serbian forces killed

    47 ethnic Albanian civilians on 17 April near Gllogovc. The

    dead included 23 children under 15 years of age. The Serbs

    threw a grenade into the room where they were holding the

    civilians and then shot those who tried to escape. PM

    [19] KFOR FINDS UCK ARMS CACHE

    A spokesman for NATO peacekeepers

    said in Prishtina on 27 July that KFOR soldiers on 24 July

    found an unguarded arms cache near Prizren "large...enough to

    support a platoon." Representatives of the Kosova Liberation

    Army (UCK) told NATO that the illegal cache was theirs,

    Reuters reported. PM

    [20] ALBANIA'S BERISHA CALLS FOR CONSENSUS

    Albanian Democratic

    Party chairman Sali Berisha told party leaders in Tirana on

    27 July that the party needs more "democratization and

    openness" in its internal discussions. He added that the

    Democrats should also work to "reach a consensus with other

    political forces on major problems facing the country," dpa

    reported. Berisha has taken several steps recently to reduce

    the polarization that bedevils the country's political life

    (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 July 1999). PM

    [21] ALBANIAN PRESIDENT SEEKS AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL WEALTH

    Rexhep

    Meidani said in Tirana on 27 July that the authorities should

    legalize the booming shadow economy, Reuters reported. He

    stressed that legalizing wealth regardless of its origin

    would encourage entrepreneurs to reinvest their gains in

    Albania and discourage cash outflow. The daily "Gazeta

    Shqiptare" wrote that Meidani's suggestion makes a mockery of

    the legal system. PM

    [22] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION LEADER BLASTS KOSOVA POLICIES

    Party of

    Social Democracy in Romania first deputy chairman Adrian

    Nastase told journalists in Turnu Severin on 27 July that

    Foreign Minister Andrei Plesu "never understood the stakes"

    of the Kosova conflict and that Romania "placed all its bets

    on one card, and lost." He said that during the conflict,

    Romania followed a policy of "passivity and servility" and

    "supported decisions that backed the interests of other

    countries" instead of "having the courage to stand up for its

    own interests," Romanian Radio reported. MS

    [23] ROMANIA, ARMENIA SIGN DEFENSE AGREEMENT

    Visiting Armenian

    Defense Minister General Vagharshak Arutiunian and his

    Romanian counterpart, Victor Babiuc, on 26 July signed a

    framework cooperation agreement between their ministries, an

    RFE/RL correspondent in Bucharest reported. The agreement

    focuses on collaboration in the defense industry, military

    training, and the protection of military information. Also on

    26 July, Foreign Minister Plesu met with visiting Pakistani

    Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz and discussed bilateral

    relations and the Kashmir crisis. The following day, Aziz and

    Finance Minister Decebal Train Remes signed an agreement on

    avoiding double taxation. MS

    [24] KURDISH REBELS THREATEN MOLDOVA...

    In a 27 July declaration

    cited by Flux, the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) said the

    recent abduction of Kurdish leader Cevat Soysal (see "RFE/RL

    Newsline, 22 July 1999) "is a continuation of the plot

    against President Abdullah Ocalan," adding that the PKK and

    its allies have "every right to respond to international

    terrorism and abductions." The declaration said that "sooner

    or later, Moldova, Kenya, and other forces that allied

    themselves with Turkey will account for their deeds."

    Presidential spokesman Anatol Golea said on 26 July that it

    "cannot be ruled out" that leaks to the media on Moldova's

    alleged involvement were purposefully misleading. Golea said

    that during a visit to Turkey on 22-23 July, National

    Security Minister Valeriu Pasat "demanded explanations" from

    Ankara. The government of Bulent Ecevit later denied any

    Moldovan involvement in the affair. MS

    [25] ...WHILE LUCINSCHI CANCELS TURKEY VACATION

    President Petru

    Lucinschi has canceled a planned vacation in Turkey, ITAR-

    TASS reported on 28 July, citing Moldpres. Presidential

    spokesman Golea said "vacationing in Turkey is now risky for

    Moldovans," adding that in view of the Kurdish threats,

    security in Moldova itself has been tightened. MS

    [26] U.S. VICE PRESIDENT LAUDS BULGARIA

    In a letter to Prime

    Minister Ivan Kostov on 27 July, Al Gore said that "the

    Bulgarian experience...on ways to grapple with a number of

    issues can be of great value to other states in the region

    and to Kosova in particular," AP reported. Gore said the

    successes of the Bulgarian cabinet "in promoting and

    implementing necessary economic and political reforms in the

    past two years have been well matched by your government's

    work to combat organized crime and corruption." MS

    [27] BULGARIAN DEPUTY TO LOSE IMMUNITY?

    Prosecutor General Nikola

    Filchev on 27 July asked the parliament to strip Euroleft

    deputy Tsvetelin Kanchev of his immunity on suspicion of

    involvement in "serious crimes," AP reported, citing state

    radio. An official from the Prosecutor-General's Office said

    the precise nature of the charges will be announced to the

    legislature later, while Filchev said that if the house lifts

    Kanchev's immunity, he will order his arrest. MS


    [C] END NOTE

    [28] THE SEDAKA DOCTRINE VERSUS THE LAW OF ENTROPY

    by Julie A. Corwin

    In coming weeks, the unexpected announcement on 23 July

    that leaders of the self-proclaimed right-center groups have

    formed a coalition may seem a little less surprising. After

    all, Anatolii Chubais, leader of Pravoe Delo (Right Cause),

    Sergei Kirienko, leader of Novaya Sila (New Force), and

    Konstantin Titov, informal leader of Golos Rossii (Voice of

    Russia), have agreed only to a "Declaration of a Union" and

    its theses. They have not yet approved something more

    substantial--a common party list and platform. As a result,

    the new and as yet unnamed coalition consists primarily of an

    agreement to agree sometime later.

    Indeed, on Russian soil, just the opposite of Neil

    Sedaka's song appears to be true: breaking up is NOT hard to

    do. If any general rule applies, it may be the law of

    entropy--that organized systems tend to become disorganized.

    As the date of the election approaches, fears of smaller

    groups that they may not overcome the 5 percent barrier could

    drive them together, but until that happens, personal

    ambition and conflicting philosophies appear more likely to

    cause fragile alliances to fall apart.

    In recent weeks, for example, the Democratic Party of

    Russia opted to leave Golos Rossii, and both the Agrarian

    Party and the Movement to Support the Army have declared

    their intention this time around to run independently of the

    Communist Party in upcoming State Duma elections. Communist

    Party leader Gennadii Zyuganov pooh-poohed these

    announcements, hinting at that time that he had some

    mysterious plan to somehow unite all left forces. With the

    announcement on 27 July of the new coalition called Za Pobedu

    (For Victory), Zyuganov appears to be putting a new label on

    an old package since leaders of both the Agrarian Party and

    Movement to Support the Army continue to insist that they

    will participate in the election separately.

    Regardless of how these moves work out, the right-

    center's announcement of a new union might have a galvanizing

    effect on the efforts of Otechestvo and Vsya Rossiya (VR) to

    unite. At their next meeting, leaders of those two groups may

    be tempted to issue their own press release declaring a

    meeting of minds similar to that supposedly experienced by

    the right-center groups. They may also want to counter

    increasing skepticism in the Russian media and among

    political analysts about an Otechestvo-VR alliance.

    On 23 July, "Izvestiya" declared that the situation

    around the proposed coalition had become "more tense," noting

    that numerous negotiations between the two blocs have not yet

    yielded any noticeable results. The previous day,

    "Nezavisimaya gazeta" argued that Otechestvo "is the only

    realistic partner" left for VR, since the VR governors cannot

    find points of agreement with Golos Rossii or former Prime

    Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin's Our Home is Russia (NDR).

    However, according to the daily, many governors "dislike"

    Luzhkov and display a certain envy of Luzhkov's successes in

    Moscow. Of course, "Nezavisimaya gazeta," which receives

    financial backing from Boris Berezovskii's LogoVAZ group, may

    not have the most objective view of either Luzhkov, an enemy

    of Berezovskii, or Luzhkov's potential allies. But even more

    disinterested sources, such as "EWI's Russian Regional

    Report," have concluded that Luzhkov's current battle with

    the Kremlin could put him at odds with Shaimiev, who is more

    supportive of President Boris Yeltsin.

    At the level of policy, the two so-called governors'

    groupings, VR and Golos Rossii, appear to have more in common

    with each other than with any of the other established

    political movements such as Otechestvo or NDR. Both groups

    are seeking increased power for the regions. In the most

    recent example of this aim, Golos Rossii leader Titov at a

    recent meeting in Khabarovsk suggested that an amendment to

    the law on presidential elections be adopted that would

    require the country's leader to win the popular vote in at

    least 45 of Russia's 89 regions in order to become president.

    VR members made a similar suggestion in May at their founding

    congress in May, proposing that all deputies from the State

    Duma be elected on the basis of the country's 450 electoral

    districts--rather than half by party lists, as under the

    current system.

    On economic policy, the view of the two groups tend to

    diverge, with VR favoring "state capitalism" and Golos Rossii

    hewing to a more liberal economic line. But the real bloc-

    breaker is more likely personality and/or personal ambition.

    Shaimiev is only VR's de facto leader; officially, the group

    has no head and claims that its ranks are free of members

    with higher political ambitions or claims to top Kremlin

    posts. However, Titov, like Luzhkov, is believed to be a

    presidential contender.

    Because the forces driving the politicians apart appear

    stronger than those driving them together, announcements of

    new unions are likely to be more frequent than the actual

    formation of genuine new parties or even electoral

    coalitions. But the fact that various groups are talking to

    one another highlights the growing power of elections in and

    of themselves: As every politician knows, it is usually

    better to be on the winning side even if one has to change

    his label or even his positions in order to be there.

    28-07-99


    Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
    URL: http://www.rferl.org


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