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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 124, 99-06-25Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 3, No. 124, 25 June 1999CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] OSCE MONITORS KARABAKH FRONT LINEOSCE officials inspected the Mardakert section of the Line of Contact between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces of Karabakh on 24 June, an RFE/RL correspondent in Stepanakert reported. Mardakert was the scene of a three-hour exchange of fire between the two sides on 14 June in which two Azerbaijanis were killed and four injured. Each side accused the other of starting the fight (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15 June 1999). One of the OSCE officials subsequently told RFE/RL that fighting had indeed taken place on 14 June, but that it did not involve 300 Armenian troops as Baku had claimed. The official declined to specify which side was to blame for the fighting. But the OSCE observers did confirm that the Azerbaijani front line has been moved forward by 400-500 meters. LF[02] NKR PRESIDENT SACKS PREMIER, GOVERNMENTArkadii Ghukasian, president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, dismissed Prime Minister Zhirayr Poghosian and his cabinet on 24 June, RFE/RL's Stepanakert correspondent reported. Ghukasian criticized the government's performance in the economic, health, and social sectors as well as its tax policy, according to Noyan Tapan. He said that the government's failures in those spheres were eroding the population's trust in the enclave's leadership. Ghukasian will assume the role of acting prime minister and a new cabinet will be formed soon. During the first four months of 1999, the volume of industrial output in the NKR grew by 2.5 percent compared with 1998. Production in the state sector fell by 5.2 percent but grew in the private sector by 33.3 percent, Noyan Tapan reported on 17 June. LF[03] GEORGIA TO PROPOSE NEW ABKHAZ SETTLEMENT PLAN?Georgian Foreign Minister Irakli Menagharishvili said in Tbilisi on 24 June that President Eduard Shevardnadze may propose new measures for resolving the Abkhaz conflict if there is no progress in settling the dispute within the next two to three months, ITAR-TASS reported. He declined to specify what those proposals might entail but added that during 22 June talks with the EU in Luxembourg, Shevardnadze had also proposed that an international conference be convened on Abkhazia. Menagharishvili also criticized the CIS peacekeeping force, which has been deployed along the internal border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia since June 1994. He said the CIS troops had failed either to prevent the large-scale fighting in southern Abkhazia in May 1998 or to create secure conditions for displaced persons within Georgia to return to their abandoned homes in Abkhazia. LF[04] KAZAKH PARLIAMENT, CABINET STILL AT ODDS...Kazakh Prime Minister Nurlan Balghymbaev told parliament deputies on 24 June that his cabinet will make every effort to curb inflation and the budget deficit, although the latter task may prove difficult, Interfax reported. He criticized the parliament's opposition to further budget cuts as "populist." Earlier on 24 June, the parliament narrowly failed to achieve the two-thirds vote required to pass a vote of no confidence in the government. Balghymbaev had called for such a vote on 21 June after the parliament rejected the proposed budget cuts, which are now considered passed (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 June 1999). But Marat Ospanov, speaker of the lower house of parliament, argued on 24 June that Balghymbaev's economic policy is inefficient, noting that pension and wage arrears have multiplied since his appointment as prime minister in the fall of 1997. Ospanov said the prime minister's policy of issuing securities to cover the budget deficit is doomed to failure. LF[05] ...AS INDUSTRIAL LOBBY SEEKS TO PROTECT OWN INTERESTSIn the wake of the 24 June no confidence vote, five deputies from the lower and one senator from the upper house of parliament announced that they are joining the Civic Party of Kazakhstan, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 25 June. The parliamentarians -- all of whom represent regions with strong industrial bases -- said that party is the only organization capable of defending the interests of local industrialists and investors as well as workers at industrial enterprises. The party has some 50,000 members. Unlike the pro-government OTAN party, the Civic Party had opposed replacing Balghymbaev's cabinet, arguing that a government crisis would only exacerbate the country's economic difficulties. LF[06] KAZAKH NEWSPAPER FORCED TO CEASE PUBLICATIONThe editor and deputy editor of the Russian-language newspaper "Nachnem s ponedelnika" said in Almaty on 24 June that the paper must close for financial reasons, RFE/RL correspondents in the former capital reported. The paper's bank account was frozen on orders from the Almaty City Justice Department earlier this year after Marat Oqshibayev, the head of the Almaty Metrostroy Joint Stock Company, demanded 50 million tenges (approximately $308,000) in compensation for "moral damage" caused by articles the paper had published. The editors described the ruling as an attack on the free press. The previous day, Yevgenii Kosenko, a journalist working for the recently founded paper "Vremya," was heavily beaten by unidentified assailants outside his home in Almaty. Kosenko has been writing on the problems of private gasoline stations in Almaty. LF[07] FOUR CENTRAL ASIAN PRESIDENTS MEET IN KYRGYZSTANThe presidents of the four member-states of the Central Asian Union -- Kazakhstan's Nursultan Nazarbaev, Kyrgyzstan's Askar Akaev, Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov and Tajikistan's Imomali Rakhmonov -- met outside Bishkek on 24 June, RFE/RL's bureau in the Kyrgyz capital reported. According to a joint declaration issued after the summit, the four presidents agreed on strengthening economic cooperation between their countries and on taking "practical steps" to form a common Central Asian economic space that would include a free trade zone and a common market for goods, services, and capital. As expected, the presidents also agreed to extend the term of the rotating presidency of the union, which is currently held by Kyrgyzstan, from one year to two years. They also granted Georgia and Turkey observer status in the union. However, Ukraine did not receive such status although it was reportedly seeking it (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 June 1999). LF[08] ANOTHER KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT DEPUTY ARRESTEDMarat Kalmurzaev, who is president of the Kyrgyzbusiness private company, was arrested in Bishkek late on 23 June, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported the following day. He is suspected of embezzlement, abuse of power, and tax evasion between 1996-1998, resulting in losses to the state of approximately 8,906,000 million som (about $200,000). According to Deputy Interior Minister Kurmanbek Kubatbekov, six earlier attempts to arrest Kalmurzaev failed because parliament refused to lift his parliamentary immunity from prosecution. LF[09] TURKMEN PRESIDENT MEETS WITH U.S. OFFICIALSSaparmurat Niyazov held talks in Ashgabat on 24 June with outgoing U.S. special envoy for Caspian energy issues Richard Morningstar and his successor, John Stern Wolf, Interfax reported. Wolf said after the talks that the U.S. will continue to support plans for the construction of an under- water Trans-Caspian pipeline for the export of Turkmen gas. Morningstar said Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are "much closer" than they were one year ago to resolving their dispute over the delimitation of their respective sectors of the Caspian Sea and ownership of several offshore oilfields. The dispute has been blamed for delaying implementation of the Trans-Caspian pipeline project. Last month, the U.S. proposed a compromise solution to both Baku and Ashgabat (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 May 1999). LF[10] UZBEK PRESIDENT ADVOCATES JOINT ASSISTANCE FOR TAJIKISTANSpeaking at the Central Asian Union summit in Bishkek on 24 June, Islam Karimov said other Central Asian states should work together to promote a rapprochement between the Tajik government and opposition, AP and Interfax reported. He said that efforts by unnamed "individual forces" to build an Islamic state in Tajikistan run counter to the interests of other countries of the region. LF[11] JAPAN SUPPORTS FOOD PRODUCTION IN UZBEKISTANThe Japanese government has allocated 470 million yen ($3.85 million) to subsidize rice production in two regions of Uzbekistan, Interfax reported on 24 June. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[12] ETHNIC ALBANIANS LOOT SERBIAN PROPERTIES IN PRISHTINACrowds of ethnic Albanians, many of whom are recently returned refugees, broke into and looted Serbian-owned shops in Prishtina, the BBC reported on 25 June. The broadcast quoted NATO peacekeepers as saying that they are "unable to stop" the plundering. It is not clear why this is the case. Elsewhere in Prishtina, local Serbs "are in panic" following the killing of three Serbs at Prishtina University, the broadcast continued (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 June 1999). They fear that returning refugees will seek revenge on the city's remaining Serbs. PM[13] VIOLENCE AGAINST SERBS IN THE PROVINCESIn Prizren, "The Daily Telegraph" of 25 June reported the violent deaths in their homes of several elderly Serbs. In Peja, some local Serbs told AP on 24 June that members of the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) ordered them to leave their homes and the province. The news agency also reported that unidentified Kosovars recently burned down an unspecified number of homes owned by Serbs and Roma. "The Guardian" wrote on 25 June that many Serbs and Albanians alike blame Roma "for many of the crimes of the past few months." In Belgrade, the daily "Danas" described as "meager" the results of government efforts to persuade Serbs to return to Kosova. PM[14] SERBIAN RESERVISTS BLOCK ROADSSome 200 army reservists blocked several roads in central Serbia for the second day in a row, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 24 June. They demand back pay for their recent tours of duty in Kosova. Protests took place in Kraljevo, Kragujevac, and Trstenik. In Belgrade, unnamed sources told "The Daily Telegraph" of 25 June that many reservists are refusing to be demobilized until they are paid. The army has offered them credits toward paying their utility bills or for shopping in army stores. PM[15] SERBIAN CHURCH TO ADMIT ATROCITIES"The Guardian" reported on 25 June that the Serbian Orthodox Church will soon announce to its members that Serbian forces committed atrocities in Kosova. Patriarch Pavle reportedly made the decision because he was "shocked" at the evidence of Serbian war crimes he recently saw in Kosova. A Church spokesman said in Belgrade that "it is important for a country to know the truth. It has to know, otherwise it will just continue on, without confessing. Denying it is not going to save souls." The government denies that atrocities took place. PM[16] U.S. PUTS PRICE ON MILOSEVIC'S HEADState Department spokesman James Rubin said on 24 June that "the United States is offering a reward of up to $5 million for information leading to the arrest or conviction in any country of persons indicted for serious violations of international humanitarian law by the International Criminal Tribunal for Yugoslavia or for information leading to their transfer to or conviction by the Tribunal... [Persons with information should] call 1-800-HEROES, or they may contact the Department of State web site at www.heroes.net. We strongly encourage all suspects still at large to surrender themselves voluntarily to competent local authorities or to the NATO-led stabilization force in Bosnia." He mentioned that the reward applies to the arrest of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, four other Belgrade leaders recently indicted with him, and Bosnian war criminals still at large. PM[17] TOP NATO LEADERS VISIT PRISHTINANATO Secretary-General Javier Solana, Supreme Commander for Europe General Wesley Clark, and spokesman Jamie Shea visited Prishtina on 24 June, an RFE/RL South Slavic Service correspondent reported. The three met with KFOR commander General Sir Michael Jackson, with the provisional government Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, and Bishop Artemije Radosavljevic of the Serbian Orthodox Church. Solana said that Thaci and Artemije met, shook hands, and pledged to meet again. FS[18] UCK DEFECTOR CHARGES THACI WITH KILLING RIVALSThe "New York Times" of 25 June quoted Rifat Haxhijaj, a former Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) member, as saying that UCK leader Hashim Thaci and two of his lieutenants, Azem Syla and Xhavit Haliti, ordered the shooting of up to six fellow rebel leaders in purges. Haxhijaj told the daily that "when the war started, everyone wanted to be the chief." He added that "for the leadership, this was never just a war against Serbs...it was also a struggle for power." A spokesman for Thaci denied responsibility for any such killings, AFP reported. U.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin told the "New York Times": "We simply don't have information to substantiate allegations that there was a [UCK] leadership-directed program of assassinations or executions." FS[19] COOK WANTS KOSOVARS TO FORM REPRESENTATIVE WORKING GROUPBritish Foreign Secretary Robin Cook told an RFE/RL correspondent in Tirana on 24 June that he urged Kosovar leaders the previous day in Prishtina to jointly form a representative group of Kosovar politicians who can serve as a partner for the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and help in rebuilding the local administration and public services. Meanwhile, moderate Kosovar leader Ibrahim Rugova, who is currently in Geneva, has delayed his return to Prishtina for fear of his security, according to unnamed Western diplomats in Prishtina, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 24 June. The diplomats expected Rugova to wait at least until the end of the month before returning, despite calls by several European leaders for him to return earlier. FS[20] EVERTS TO HEAD OSCE IN KOSOVAOSCE Chairman Knut Vollebaek told Reuters in Oslo on 24 June that he has appointed Daan Everts as head of the OSCE mission in Kosova. The Dutch diplomat thus will become one of the four deputy special representatives of UNMIK. He will be responsible for rebuilding civilian institutions, promoting democracy, monitoring human rights, organizing free elections, and training police and justice officials. Everts has been OSCE ambassador in Albania since 1997. Vollebaek also announced that the OSCE plans to send 400 to 600 people into Kosova. FS[21] FBI FORENSIC TEAM STARTS WORK IN KOSOVAFifty-nine FBI investigators arrived in Kosova, the first case ever of FBI agents investigating war crimes against civilians who are not U.S. citizens, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 24 June. FBI Director Louis Freeh said that "we have here alleged crimes against humanity on the gravest scale, and the victims that we know about were murdered principally...because of their ethnicity, because of their religion, and in many cases for no reason at all except an ethnic cleansing plan which was dictated from the very highest levels of government." FS[22] AT LEAST 40 MASS GRAVES IN SOUTHERN KOSOVAGerman Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping said in Bonn on 25 June that "it can be estimated that at least 40 mass graves are in the German military- controlled sector." He added that it is too early to provide more definite figures for either the number of graves or the number of people in them. The German forces are based in Prizren. PM[23] WHAT HAPPENED TO 700 PEOPLE FROM GJAKOVA?A spokeswoman for the Kosovar provisional government told RFE/RL's South Slavic Service on 24 June that "according to sources in the UCK's secret service...in the plain of Dukagjin...717 people from that region are missing. There are 860 burned houses. We have to say that these figures are not final and that every day we have new reports about missing people and burned houses." The "New York Times" reported some of the inhabitants of Gjakova believe that the missing Albanians are imprisoned in Serbia. FS[24] 500 HOSTAGES FROM SMREKONICA MISSINGAn RFE/RL correspondent reported from the prison of Smrekonica on 24 June that at least 350 of the hostages held there by Serbian forces have disappeared. According to six ethnic Albanian prison guards, 500 to 650 Kosovar hostages were transferred to prisons in Nis, Mitrovica, and Pozarevac. One of the prison guards said he suspected that the missing 350 were killed and cremated in a crematorium near Trepca, but he was unable to confirm this. He added that from 3 May to 12 June there were 4,300 prisoners in Smrekonica. The correspondent added that KFOR soldiers have blocked access to the Trepca mine, a suspected massacre site. Currently the prison of Smrekonica is under the control of the UCK. The six Albanian prison guards who served there during the bombing are currently trying to identify the missing prisoners. FS[25] MACEDONIAN OPPOSITION PROTESTS RAPPROCHEMENT WITH THACIMore than 15,000 Macedonian opposition supporters protested in central Skopje on 24 June against the rapprochement between Macedonian Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski and Kosova's Thaci, an RFE/RL correspondent reported. The organizer was the largest opposition party, the Social Democratic Union. They were joined by the smaller Serbian and Roma parties, the Communists, and an organization of pensioners. The opposition accused the government of endangering Macedonian national interests by working with NATO during its campaign against Serbia. Georgievski also recently indicated that his government will approve Albanian-language education at the university level by this fall. FS[26] BOSNIAN ELECTIONS POSTPONEDAmbassador Robert Barry, who heads the OSCE's mission to Bosnia, said in Sarajevo on 24 June that the next round of local elections will be postponed from September 1999 until April 2000. He cited "tensions" in neighboring Yugoslavia following the Kosova crisis as part of the reason for the postponement. He also noted that there are "practical difficulties particularly at this time" in registering voters there. PM[27] WESTENDORP THREATENS MUSLIM PARTY WITH SANCTIONSThe office of the international community's Carlos Westendorp announced in Sarajevo on 24 June that he will impose economic sanctions on areas governed by the Muslim Party of Democratic Action (SDA) unless the SDA implements a local power-sharing agreement in Zepce, which is northwest of Sarajevo. PM[28] DEMOCRATIC PARTY ATTACKS PRESIDENT CONSTANTINESCUDemocratic Party spokeswoman Paula Ivanescu on 24 June accused President Emil Constantinescu of "waging war" against her party and its president, Senate Chairman Petre Roman. Ivanescu said the president's alleged attacks were aimed at "tarnishing" the party's image, preventing the party from taking part in any future government, and "doing away" with a possible rival in the next presidential elections. Presidential spokesman Razvan Popescu rejected the accusations, saying Constantinescu has "never initiated" such an attack on a political party, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The media recently reported that prominent Democratic Party leaders are linked to a Ploiesti-based oil import-export firm with a dubious record. Also, the Brasov prefect, a member of the party, was recently arrested for having illegally mortgaged the assets of a local enterprise. The government on 24 June named a new prefect, who is also a Democratic Party member. MS[29] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT AMENDS LAND RESTITUTION LAWThe Chamber of Deputies on 24 June passed an amendment to the land restitution law, raising the maximum amount of land that can be restituted to any one applicant to 50 hectares, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Previously, the law had set the maximum limit at 10 hectares. In other news, the Bucharest Municipal Tribunal on 24 June ruled that Creditbank, one of Romania's largest financial institutions, is incapable of meeting payments to depositors and placed the bank under the control of the tribunal. MS[30] ROMANIA'S IRON GUARD ANNOUNCES COMEBACKThe deputy chairman of the National Union for Christian Revival (UNRC), Nicador Zelea Codreanu, on 24 June said the UNRC wants to relaunch Romania's interwar fascist Legionary movement. Codreanu is a nephew of Corneliu Zelea Codreanu, the Legionary movement's leader in the 1920s and 1930s. He made the announcement on the 72nd anniversary of his uncle's establishment of the League of the Archangel Michael, a precursor of the movement. Codreanu said the revived movement must acknowledge its "past mistakes," including its anti-Semitism and racism, and must "distance itself" from the acts committed under Corneliu Zelea's successor, Horia Sima. The UNRC has about 300 members. Romanian law requires that a political party have 10,000 members in order to register. Codreanu said the movement would seek to merge with other formations that have similar roots, Mediafax reported. MS[31] MOLDOVAN PRIME MINISTER ON THE CHISINAU RIOTSPrime Minister Ion Sturza on 24 June said that the riots in the capital the day before may have been the work of "provocateurs." He said the government had received information on the "provocateurs" in advance and had warned the trade unions about them. The warnings, he said, were ignored. Sturza also said his cabinet, in contrast to its predecessors, will only make promises it can fulfill. He said the government is ready to negotiate with the unions but only from a "realistic position" that takes into account the state of the Moldovan economy. He said that the leaders of the Federation of Trade Unions (FGSM) "panicked" when the government pointed out that the federation is in possession of assets of "dubious" origin. He also said the union leaders' salaries are 10 times higher than the average wage in the country. MS[32] MOLDOVAN TRADE UNIONS ACCUSE CABINET OF BLACKMAILFGSM leader Ion Godonoga on 24 June said the government is trying to "blackmail" the unions in order to make them renounce their demands for the payment of wage arrears. Godonoga said that he "challenges the cabinet to prove in court" that the FGSM's assets do not belong to the unions. He added that if the arrears are not paid by 31 December, the unions will launch a general strike, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. Cabinet members walked out of the negotiations, saying they cannot meet the demands of the unions, according to a 24 June BBC report cited by Radio Bucharest. MS[33] MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT POSTPONES NUCLEAR FUEL TRANSITING RATIFICATIONThe parliament on 24 June postponed a vote on ratifying the 1997 agreement on the transit of nuclear fuel from the Bulgarian Kozloduy nuclear plant. This is the second time that the legislature has refused to ratify the agreement, which was signed by Moldova, Bulgaria, Russia, and Ukraine in 1997. The decision was taken at the initiative of deputies representing the Christian Democratic Popular Front and the Party of Moldovan Communists, Infotag reported. Several Moldovan NGOs on the same day appealed to the parliament to reject the government's request for ratification, saying Moldova must remain an "environmentally clean island" in an otherwise contaminated Europe. MS[34] BULGARIA TO SEND INVESTIGATORS TO KOSOVABulgarian Transportation Minister Wilhelm Kraus on 24 June said the government has approved an Interpol request to send experts to Kosova who will participate in the investigations into the mass killings of Kosovar Albanians in the region, BTA reported. MS[35] BULGARIAN MINIMUM WAGE RAISED, ENERGY PRICES HIKEDThe cabinet on 24 June decided to raise the minimum monthly wage by 9.8 percent, BTA reported. The government also hiked energy prices. Prices for electricity went up 10 percent for domestic consumption and 1.1 percent for industrial consumption. Heating prices were raised by 12 percent and the price of briquettes for household use by 30 percent. MS[C] END NOTE[36] A Kosova Balance Sheetby Patrick Moore"That's what you get when you treat a third-rate power like a first-rate one--and it decides to act accordingly." Such was the comment of one Western observer of the Moscow scene, reacting to Russia's recent move to occupy Prishtina airport before NATO could get its troops into Kosova. At the airport, one man identified only as "General Igor" gleefully told London's "The Independent on Sunday": "I'll be here for years." An agreement regulating Russia's role came later, after days of painstaking negotiations. One suspects that it could have been reached a lot sooner were it not for Moscow's desire to savor its coup-on-the-ground and drag the talks out accordingly. The Russian troops arrived from Bosnia-Herzegovina, where they were part of SFOR, formerly known as IFOR or UNPROFOR. They were there partly because of Russia's longstanding desire to serve notice that it remains a great power, at least as far as the Balkans are concerned. But they were also there partly because of a Western desire to involve Russian troops in the peacekeeping effort. Part of the irony in this is that the cornerstone of Western policy for decades had been to keep Soviet or Russian ground troops out of the Balkans. Now, 200 paratroopers left their NATO-supervised peacekeeping posts in Bosnia to elbow in on Kosova. Whatever happens, General Igor and his friends will not have their own zone of occupation, at least under the current arrangements. Many observers had feared that any Russian zone would turn into a local version of the ethnically-cleansed Republika Srpska, which would attract the province's Serbs to settle but would not welcome ethnic Albanians. Meanwhile, the Kosovars have been coming home in droves despite the dangers of landmines (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," No. 24). On the military side, NATO now has a document from the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) in which the guerrillas pledge to demilitarize and partially disarm according to a fixed time table. It is too early to tell whether the UCK will stick to its word. But perhaps the most disturbing phenomenon on the ground involves continuing reports from various parts of Kosova regarding attacks on Serbian civilians, abandoned Serbian property, and Serbian cultural monuments, including historic churches. The big question is whether these are isolated acts of revenge or something more sinister. On the diplomatic front, three young prime ministers have shown a willingness to look forward and stress reconstruction and regional cooperation. Macedonia's Ljubco Georgievski, Albania's Pandeli Majko, and Hashim Thaci of the UCK's provisional government are political products of the 1990s. (And when considering those who belong to the new generation of Balkan leaders, one might also add Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic and Macedonian Albanian leader Arben Xhaferi.) Their taking office marks the end of an era in which the political leadership rested--and that seems truly the right word--with persons whose politically formative years were under communism. Macedonia's President Kiro Gligorov and the Kosovar shadow-state leader Ibrahim Rugova have both made their marks on the region's history, but time now seems to have passed them by, along with their Tito-era styles. The main issue on the horizon, however, remains the democratization of Serbia. The Serbs are the numerically largest people of the former Yugoslavia and live at the very center of the Balkans. They also have a stronger democratic tradition than most of their neighbors. They therefore cannot be "written off" as inherent warmongers, any more than the Germans could after having started and lost two World Wars. It is precisely the example of post- 1945 Germany that suggests that there is ample time and opportunity for Serbia to reclaim its democratic heritage and take its place politically as well as geographically at the center of the Balkans. But NATO ended the war with a "Saddam Hussein peace" that left in office a dictator who first came to power by manipulating nationalist sentiments and after 10 years of economic downturn. Many Western leaders are now predicting Milosevic's eventual demise, but not necessarily in the coming weeks. Part of the reason for this is that the domestic opposition presents no readily identifiable alternative to Milosevic. Some opposition leaders have no large followings, while others are tainted by a history of opportunism or mercurial behavior. Still others are extreme nationalists who might have no qualms about launching new wars or waves of ethnic cleansing. Perhaps the most serious threat to Milosevic could come from below, including from Serbs who lost their homes as a result of his wars. That sort of discontent could, however, as easily be harnessed by the extreme nationalists as by democrats. In order to help promote a non-nationalist alternative to Milosevic, some Western governments and NGOs have actively begun to promote the democratization of Serbia. This involves support for democratic political forces and the independent media. It also means launching the German- sponsored Balkan stability pact for regional peace and development, which Serbia will be welcome to join once it has rid itself of Milosevic. A tantalizing prospect would be for the international community to use its de facto protectorate over Kosova to promote democracy in Serbia as a whole. The province could become a center for a free and vibrant Serbian press and independent electronic media. NGO's and the opposition could also operate freely there. Kosova could once again become a "cradle of Serbian civilization." 25-06-99 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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