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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 76, 99-04-20Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 3, No. 76, 20 April 1999CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIA DENIES TALKS WITH AZERBAIJAN ON LIBERATING OCCUPIED TERRITORIESArmenian presidential spokesman Vahe Gabrielian told RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau on 19 April that a Russian media report that Armenian and Azerbaijani officials are conducting secret talks on conditions under which Armenian forces will withdraw from five occupied districts of Azerbaijan "does not correspond to reality." Interfax on 17 April quoted unnamed Azerbaijani government officials as saying that the issue had been discussed at a meeting in Georgia on 12 April between the defense ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 April 1999). Interfax said that in return for withdrawing from five districts that border on the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in the south, Armenia is demanding the restoration of road and rail links from Azerbaijan to Armenia. LF[02] CZECH PREMIER IN KAZAKHSTANMilos Zeman held talks in Astana on 19 April with his Kazakh counterpart, Nurlan Balghymbaev, on expanding trade and economic relations and on repaying Kazakhstan's debts to the Czech Republic, Interfax and ITAR- TASS reported. Balghymbaev characterized the Czech Republic as one of his country's key partners in central Europe, noting that trade turnover doubled from $50 million in 1997 to $100 million last year. Zeman told Balghymbaev that Russian Prime Minister Yevgenii Primakov has agreed to his proposal to remove existing barriers to exports of gas from Kazakhstan to the Czech Republic via Russia. A joint commission is to determine the volume of such exports, which will constitute part payment of Kazakhstan's outstanding debt for construction projects undertaken by Czechoslovakia in Kazakhstan in the 1980s. Zeman also met with President Nursultan Nazarbaev. LF[03] KAZAKH OPPOSITION LEADER PROPOSES INCLUDING RUSSIA, KYRGYZSTAN IN RIVER NEGOTIATIONSSpeaking at a press conference in Almaty on 19 April, Murat Auezov, who is a former Kazakh ambassador to Beijing and co-chairman of the opposition movement Azamat, called for the inclusion of Russian and Kyrgyz government representatives in the upcoming Kazakh-Chinese talks on the use of waters from the Irtysh and Ili Rivers, RFE/RL's Almaty bureau reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 and 15 April 1999). Auezov noted that Beijing is building new dams and power stations on the Irtysh, which is a tributary of Russia's Ob River. Those facilities could radically reduce the volume of water flowing from China into Kazakhstan. LF[04] KYRGYZ-RUSSIAN ECONOMIC COMMISSION MEETSAt its first session in Bishkek on 19 April, the Kyrgyz-Russian inter-- governmental commission reviewed a draft 10-year economic cooperation program that includes cooperation in the oil and gas sectors, the involvement of Russian companies in the construction of hydro-electric plants in Kyrgyzstan, and Russian orders from Kyrgyz defense plants, Interfax and RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Russian Railways Minister Nikolai Aksenenko, who is co-chairman of the commission, also met with Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev and Prime Minister Amangeldi Muraliev. LF[05] TAJIK OPPOSITION POLITICIAN CRITICIZES PACT ON RUSSIAN MILITARY BASEIn an interview with AP-Blitz on 19 April, Muhammadsharif Himmatzoda, who is leader of the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan and chairman of the Committee for National Reconciliation sub-committee on legal affairs, said the creation on the territory of Tajikistan of a foreign military base is "unacceptable." Himmatzoda reasoned that the 16 April agreement signed in Moscow by the defense ministers of Russia and Tajikistan, which allows Russia to establish such a base in Tajikistan, will compel neighboring countries to conclude analogous agreements. This, he said, will exacerbate tensions in the region. He said the presence in Tajikistan of the 201st Russian division and of Russian border troops is adequate to ensure the country's security. LF[06] UZBEKISTAN TO JOIN GUAMSpeaking at a press conference in Tbilisi on 19 April, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze said the presidents of the four GUAM states (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) will formally announce the accession of Uzbekistan to that alignment in Washington later this week. Shevardnadze added that the five members have drafted documents redefining the nature and objectives of that organization. He declined to give details, however, other than to say that the draft does not include military cooperation, according to ITAR-TASS and Interfax. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] VEDRINE: BELGRADE'S PERMISSION NOT NEEDED FOR KOSOVA FORCEFrench Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine told the "International Herald Tribune" of 20 April that the "UN Security Council has powers to impose solutions, even against the will of a sovereign state." He added that the international community will deploy ground forces to Kosova only within the context of a political settlement. Vedrine noted that "our general goal, shared by all the Western countries, including the Russians...is to see ex- Yugoslavia come into line with European norms and become democratic. That means a change of regime in Serbia.... Someday, the people of Serbia will have a place in Europe, but right now they have developed a mood of paranoia, which existed before the [NATO] airstrikes but has worsened," the foreign minister concluded. PM[08] COOK: SERBIA TO LOSE CONTROL OF KOSOVABritish Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said in London on 19 April that "the sheer scale of the brutality directed from Belgrade against the Kosovar Albanians" makes an international administration of Kosova necessary once the Serbian forces leave. Cook suggested that the UN or EU could take over the administration of Kosova from the Serbian authorities, dpa reported. He added that he is making information on "multiple atrocities" and their perpetrators available to the Hague- based war crimes tribunal. PM[09] HAS YUGOSLAV ARMY STARTED ETHNIC CLEANSING IN MONTENEGRO?Deputy Prime Minister Dragisa Burzan said on 19 April that the government is investigating reports that the previous night members of the Yugoslav army forced ethnic Albanians to abandon between one and three villages near Rozaje, along the border with Kosova. Burzan told Reuters that the government does not want "people to move out of the area," which is home to many ethnic Albanians and Muslims. More than 400 people from three villages told AP in Rozaje that Yugoslav soldiers expelled them from their villages amid great physical and verbal abuse. Also in that area, unidentified gunmen recently killed six Kosovar refugees, including a 70- year-old woman and a 13-year-old boy, Reuters added. And in Podgorica, Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic warned the army not to arrest Deputy Prime Minister Novak Kilibarda (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 April 1999). PM[10] YUGOSLAVIA CLOSES ALBANIAN BORDERThe renewed influx of almost 40,000 refugees into northern Albania over the weekend ended when Serbian forces suddenly closed the border on 19 April (see "RFE/RL Newsline" 19 April 1999). Only 30 or so refugees arrived in Kukes that day, VOA's Albanian Service reported. Nearby, Serbian soldiers and Albanian border guards exchanged gunfire on 19 April at Dobruna, Reuters added. FS[11] WHY HAVE YUGOSLAV AUTHORITIES CLOSED THE BORDERS?Kris Janowski, who is spokesman for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), said in Geneva on 19 April that the Yugoslav authorities have closed most, if not all, of the border crossings out of Kosova and forced the displaced persons back into the interior of the province. He added that "it all sounds fairly ominous and we don't know to what end they're doing it." Janowski stressed that the refugees "are being forcibly prevented from leaving." In Brussels, a NATO spokesman said that up to 250,000 displaced persons may be on the road inside Kosova, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported. PM[12] ALBANIA MOVES REFUGEES OUT OF BORDER REGIONRelief workers in Kukes have speeded up the transfer of refugees to other parts of Albania to the rate of 10,000 a day, Reuters reported on 19 April. More than 130,000 refugees remained in generally squalid conditions in the northern town. Officials in Tirana said they have drawn up plans for a military helicopter airlift of refugees to central and southern Albania. Many refugees have resisted moving out of Kukes in the hope of returning to Kosova soon. A UNHCR official there noted that an estimated total of 15,000 families fled in tractor-drawn carts. He added that "these people are especially attached to their tractors [and] will never leave them behind." He added that the UNHCR plans to create a special camp for them near Kukes. FS[13] UCK CAPTURES RUSSIAN IN KOSOVAKosova Liberation Army (UCK) fighters captured three Yugoslav army soldiers, including one Russian citizen, inside Kosova last week, an UCK spokesman told AP in Tirana on 19 April. He said that the UCK plans to turn them over to NATO officials. The three apparently belonged to the same unit as another Yugoslav army officer, whom the rebels captured last week near Junik. The UCK turned the officer over to the Albanian authorities, which transferred him to U.S. custody. U.S. officials have declared the officer a prisoner of war. Yugoslav forces continue to hold three U.S. soldiers whom they captured on 31 March near the Yugoslav-Macedonian border. FS[14] KOSOVAR AIDE: MILOSEVIC USED RUGOVAAdnan Merovci, who is Kosovar leader Ibrahim Rugova's chief of protocol, said in Skopje on 19 April that Rugova held his two recent meetings with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic under duress (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 14 April 1999). Merovci, whom the Yugoslav authorities recently allowed to leave Prishtina for Macedonia, stressed that Rugova believes that air strikes against Serbian targets should end only after Serbian forces leave Kosova and the refugees return home under international protection, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[15] U.S. SEEKING OIL CUT-OFF FOR YUGOSLAVIASecretary of State Madeleine Albright has recently appealed to foreign ministers of several unnamed European governments to support a "cut- off" of shipments of refined oil to Yugoslavia in order to deny oil to the army, AP reported on 20 April. She noted in Washington the previous day that Croatia has already closed its pipeline to Yugoslavia. A State Department spokesman said that Albright hopes that ships en route to Yugoslav ports could be stopped and searched at sea, but the spokesman did not use the term "blockade." Elsewhere, U.S. diplomats called on foreign governments not to allow the shipment of oil to Yugoslavia. Meanwhile in Paris, unnamed French officials said they doubt whether an oil cut-off is possible under international law without a declaration of war. They added that the EU and countries bordering Yugoslavia should "find a formula" to regulate the flow of oil supplies to Yugoslavia. PM[16] CLINTON WANTS $6 BILLION FOR KOSOVAPresident Bill Clinton asked Congress on 19 April to approve $6 billion to support the U.S. military involvement in the Kosova crisis and to increase aid to Kosovar refugees. He stressed that "there are literally lives hanging in the balance." PM[17] MACEDONIA ON VERGE OF 'CATASTROPHE'Foreign Minister Aleksandar Dimitrov said in Vienna on 19 April that "our economy, society, and state are on the brink of a catastrophe," "Die Presse" reported. He noted that Macedonia has already admitted 140,000 refugees even though it is willing to allow only 20,000 to stay. He warned that the massive influx of Kosovars threatens to upset the balance between the Slavic Macedonian majority and the 23 percent ethnic Albanian minority. Dimitrov argued that Macedonian authorities have been admitting refugees only slowly because the authorities must be certain that the people in question, most of whom have no documents, are really refugees. PM[18] U.S. SUSPENDS PROGRAM FOR BOSNIAN FEDERAL ARMYRobert Gelbard, who is U.S. special envoy for the former Yugoslavia, said in Zagreb on 19 April that he is suspending the $100 million "train- and-equip" program for the mainly Croatian and Muslim Bosnian federal army in the wake of recent "antagonistic...stupid and dangerous speeches" by top Croatian generals. Gelbard stressed that Croatian General Ljubo Cesic-Rojs and Herzegovinian Croatian General Stanko Sopta made "intolerable" remarks regarding Muslims at a Herzegovinian Croatian military ceremony. Gelbard also noted that the Muslim and Herzegovinian Croatian military leaderships have failed to truly integrate their forces, "Oslobodjenje" reported. He also stressed that Croatia must respect the Dayton agreement and no longer allow ethnic Croats in Bosnia-Herzegovina to vote in Croatian elections, "Jutarnji list" noted. PM[19] ROMANIA TO CONSIDER GRANTING NATO AIR SPACERomanian political and military leaders are to meet on 20 April to discuss a NATO request for unlimited use of the country's air space, Reuters reported. A spokesman for President Emil Constantinescu said he will chair a meeting of the country's Supreme Defense Council. The four- party coalition government will also consider the request, which will require parliamentary approval. The leftist opposition Party of Social Democracy said in a statement that it "does not want Romania to be dragged into a dangerous military adventure" and asked that a joint session of the parliament be convened to discuss NATO's request. PB[20] ROMANIAN WORKERS PROTEST POOR CONDITIONSThousands of Romanian workers went on a two-hour nationwide strike on 19 April to protest declining living standards, AP reported. Romania's four major trade unions organized the strike, which paralyzed public transportation in several cities and towns. The unions warned that an all- out strike will be called for 26 April if demands for better social programs and lower prices for food are not met. The government has been negotiating with the unions and said some of the problems may be resolved if Bucharest receives a $450 million loan from the IMF. Christian Popa, the vice governor of the National Bank of Romania, said in London that the government expects the loan to be signed by 21 April at the latest, an RFE/RL correspondent in the British capital reported. PB[21] NEW ROMANIAN POLITICAL PARTY ESTABLISHEDIon Diaconescu said on 19 April that the formation two days earlier of the Christian Democratic National Alliance (ANCD), whose members broke away from his National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD), comes at an inopportune time for the country. Diaconescu said the new party has been formed for personal reasons and that its aim is to damage the PNTCD, Rompres reported. Former Premier Victor Ciorbea is the president of the ANCD. He previously served as vice president of the PNTCD. PB[22] BULGARIAN LEADERS AGREE TO NATO REQUEST FOR AIR CORRIDORPresident Petar Stoyanov, Premier Ivan Kostov, and parliamentary speaker Yordan Sokolov said on 19 April that they will ask the parliament to approve a NATO request to use Bulgarian air space for strikes against Yugoslavia, Reuters reported. After meeting with legislative leaders, Kostov said the government will seek a "positive response" from the parliament. He said that refusing to grant the air corridor to the alliance would mean prolonging the crisis and excluding Bulgaria from European integration. Kostov is to go to Brussels to explain the conditions and to ask for security guarantees. Some 50,000 ethnic Bulgarians live in Yugoslavia, and opinion polls in Bulgaria show that a majority of the people are against NATO air strikes. PB[23] BULGARIAN GOVERNMENT APPROVES MILITARY AID TO MACEDONIABulgarian Defense Minister Georgi Ananiev said in Sofia that the government has approved an agreement granting military aid to Macedonia, BTA reported on 18 April. The first shipment of aid, to be delivered one month after the agreement is approved by the Bulgarian parliament, would include 94 T-55 tanks, 108 M-30 howitzers, and ammunition worth $3.5 million. PB[C] END NOTE[24] NEW MOVES ON THE CAUCASUS CHESSBOARDby Paul GobleSeveral recent developments in the southern Caucasus may fundamentally change power relationships not only in that region but also across a much larger portion of the world as well. Precisely because of that possibility, some of the players both within the region and beyond appear to be positioning themselves to respond with new moves. On 17 April, leaders from the Caucasus and Central Asia marked the opening of a 515-mile pipeline that will carry oil from the Caspian basin to the West. The same day, Ukraine, Georgia, and Bulgaria signed a treaty creating a new Black Sea rail ferry route. Both of these moves, which have been widely welcomed in the West, will allow the countries of this region to reach Europe without passing through either Russia or Iran. Together, these moves on the chessboard of the Caucasus may come to transform the geopolitical environment of both this region and Eurasia as a whole. As one senior Azerbaijani official put it, these steps mean "the world to us," giving Baku "direct access to the West" and thus allowing it to free itself from Russia "after 200 years." Indeed, if both this pipeline and ferry arrangement work out, Russian leverage over these countries will decline still further. And as if to underline the decline in Russian power there, approximately 100 soldiers from Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine last week held four-day military maneuvers at Krtsanisi, just east of Tbilisi. While the number of troops involved was small, such a joint exercise highlights the continuing decay of the Russian-backed CIS as the chief security organization of the post-Soviet region. And it gives new content to GUAM, an organization that includes Moldova as well as the three countries that took part in the maneuvers. Indeed, many Russian officials are likely to view the exercise as a direct challenge to Moscow, particularly because it came on the heels of a decision by several CIS states not to continue to participate in the Commonwealth's defense agreement. Even more, officials in other countries in this region are certain to be following this exercise as a test of what may now be possible for them as well. But precisely because so much is at stake, not only for these countries but for others as well, several states have moved some pieces on this chessboard as well. On 14 April, Russia and Iran signed an agreement to cooperate in the exploitation of oil and gas resources in the region, a direct response to the new Azerbaijan-Georgian pipeline. Russian Oil Minister Sergei Generalov and his Iranian opposite number, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, initialed an accord that will expand the already large degree of cooperation between the two states from which many in the Caspian basin seek to become more independent. Whether this accord will give the two states more opportunities to counter the new east-west corridor in the southern Caucasus remains to be seen. But on 14 April, Moscow took another step designed to defend or even expand its influence there. In Yerevan to mark Armenia's expanded participation in CIS air defense, General Anatolii Kornukov, the commander of the Russian Federation air force, announced that Moscow will send more fighter jets to its military base in the Caucasus country. Kornukov went out of his way to say that this new buildup was in no way a threat to Azerbaijan, with which Armenia has been locked in a dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh for more than a decade. But few in Baku or elsewhere are likely to see this latest Russian move as anything but precisely that. Indeed, when Moscow recently deployed advanced S-300 missiles and MiG-29 fighters to Armenia, Azerbaijanis from President Heidar Aliev down protested that move as inherently destabilizing. They are almost certain to raise their voices again now that Moscow has introduced still more weaponry into Armenia, with which the Russian Federation maintains extremely close ties. Such moves and countermoves serve as a reminder not only of how complicated this region remains and how much is at stake for how many people but also of how difficult it is for any of the participants in this geopolitical game to make a move that the other side cannot quickly move to counter. Thus neither side is likely to be able to move into an endgame anytime soon. 20-04-99 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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