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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 244, 98-12-21Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 244, 21 December 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] GEORGIA PUTS SECURITY FORCES ON FULL ALERT...The Georgian government put Interior Ministry and security forces deployed in western Georgia on full alert on 18 December in response to an alleged buildup of Abkhaz armed forces in Abkhazia's southernmost Gali Raion (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 15-16 December 1998), Reuters and ITAR-TASS reported. A Georgian statement attributed that alleged buildup to Abkhaz plans to launch reprisals on Georgian- populated villages in Gali. Abkhaz Interior Minister Amazbei Kchach and Foreign Minister Daur Arshba both denied either that additional troops have been sent to Gali or than any attack on the district's Georgian population is planned. Abkhaz President Vladislav Ardzinba criticized the Georgian move as aimed at undermining efforts to resolve the conflict peacefully, according to Interfax. Also on 18 December, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Mayorov expressed concern at the "escalation of mutual tensions" and the mobilization of Georgian forces, ITAR- TASS reported. LF[02] ...AS GEORGIAN, ABKHAZ REPRESENTATIVES AGREE TO FURTHER TALKSDuring talks in Geneva on 18 December, Georgian Minister of State Vazha Lortkipanidze and Abkhaz Premier Sergei Bagapsh agreed to meet again on 22 December in Gali Raion in order to discuss the implementation of previously signed agreements, Caucasus Press reported. On 17 December, they had discussed measures to prevent a resumption of hostilities in the region. But Lev Mironov, the Russian representative to the talks, said the proposed meeting between the Georgian and Abkhaz presidents was not discussed. Eduard Shevardnadze and Vladislav Ardzinba were to have signed a protocol on the repatriation to Gali of ethnic Georgian displaced persons at that meeting, which was originally scheduled for November. LF[03] SHEVARDNADZE SAYS HIS ASSASINS HIDING IN ABKHAZIAIn a 21 December statement, Georgian President Shevardnadze said he remains committed to a peaceful settlement of the Abkhaz conflict, ITAR- TASS reported. But in a remark that may exacerbate tensions between Tbilisi and that breakaway region, the Georgian leader said he has information that some of those who attempted to kill him in February 1998 are hiding in Abkhazia's Gali Raion. He added that "rendering any support to terrorists is unacceptable for the Georgian authorities." PG[04] GEORGIAN PARAMILITARIES MEETMembers and veterans of up to one dozen Georgian informal paramilitary units that fought in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the early 1990s gathered at the Shavnabada camp near Tbilisi on 19 December to discuss the possibility of joining forces to restore Tbilisi's jurisdiction over those two territories, Caucasus Press reported. One of the participants was Zurab Samushia, leader of the White Legion guerrilla movement, which is currently operating in southern Abkhazia. A Georgian Defense Ministry representative who attended the gathering expressed the hope that the informal paramilitaries would not act independently of the ministry. The veterans demanded an amnesty for members of the banned paramilitary organization Mkhedrioni who are currently serving prison sentences for terrorism. The veterans argued that the imprisoned Mkhedrioni members had fought to preserve Georgia's territorial integrity. LF[05] GEORGIAN BORDERGUARDS REPLACE RUSSIANS ON TURKISH BORDERUnits of the Russian Federal Border Service on 20 December turned over responsibility for guarding a portion of the Georgian-Turkish border to Georgian borderguards, ITAR-TASS reported. The Russian unit is to be deployed to Russia's Volgograd Oblast. Three other Russian detachments still guarding that border will be withdrawn in the near future under the terms of an agreement between Moscow and Tbilisi. On 21 December, Georgian President Shevardnadze said his government will assume complete responsibility over control of all Georgia's borders by 1 July 1999. PG[06] GEORGIAN HUNGER STRIKER FOUND DEADNugzar Lezhava, one of several dozen supporters of deceased former President Zviad Gamsakhurdia who had launched a hunger strike to demand the release of a former Georgian parliamentary deputy arrested in Moscow last week, was found dead on 18 December, Caucasus Press reported. Gamsakhurdia's widow, Manana Archvadze-Gamsakhurdia, accused the police of having broken into the home of deceased Georgian dissident Merab Kostava, where Lezhava had taken refuge, and of murdering him. LF[07] PRESENT, FORMER ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTERS DIFFER OVER KARABAKH PEACE PLANVartan Oskanian told RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau on 19 December that the Karabakh peace plan proposed by the Minsk Group co-chairs during their November visit to the Transcaucasus is an improvement on their previous proposal and thus constitutes "a big step forward" toward resolving the conflict. "This document is substantially different from the previous one," Oskanian said. On 18 December, Oskanian's predecessor as foreign minister, Alexander Arzoumanian, had told journalists that "there is no difference" between the 1997 proposal and the more recent one. Arzoumanian claimed to have seen the most recent draft, the details of which have not been made public. LF[08] NAZARBAYEV WANTS BOOSTED TIES WITH ŒGOD-GIVEN NEIGHBOR'Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, visiting the southwestern city of Aktau on 18 December to meet with voters, said CIS countries should move closer together to confront the economic crisis they all face, Interfax reported. With reference to the upcoming visit of Russian Prime Minister Yevgenii Primakov to Kazakhstan, he said the two countries are considering forming an economic stabilization fund as well as food aid for countries hard hit by the economic crisis. Nazarbayev said he is "bewildered" by Russia's requests for humanitarian grain shipments, noting that "Russians keep selling grain in Kazakh regions along the border with Russia at $30-40 per ton." At the same time, he urged greater cooperation between the two countries is necessary, saying that Russia is "a neighbor given to us by God." BP[09] KAZAKH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE PRESENTS PROGRAMEngels Gabbasov said on 18 December that there are "many faults" in the economic reform process currently under way, Interfax reported. Gabbasov said a remedy is needed for the "critical situation in industry and agriculture, low living standards of the majority of the population, and the growth of crime and the shadow economy." Gabbasov said if successful in the 10 January elections, he will restore "the state monopoly on oil, gas, and precious and non- ferrous metals [as well as] as on the production and sales of alcoholic beverages." Gabbasov also said industry should be revived by restructuring the energy sector. He added that he also favors cuts in the prices of electricity, fuels, and lubricants for agricultural producers, and he spoke out in favor of free education and medical care as well as increased benefits for mothers with many children. Gabbasov said Kazakhstan needs improved ties with CIS countries especially those taking part in the CIS Customs Union alongside Kazakhstan. BP[10] UZBEK, MOLDOVAN PRESIDENTS VOW GREATER COOPERATIONIslam Karimov and Petru Lucinschi held a press conference in Tashkent on 18 December, Interfax reported. Karimov said cooperation between the two countries will be expanded, singling out projects linked with the exploitation of the Black Sea and in the sphere of communications. Interfax reported that bilateral trade in 1997 amounted to some $9 million and in the first nine months of 1998 totaled some $6 million. BP[11] KARIMOV ADMITS TO WEAPONS PROGRAM IN ARAL SEA...At the Tashkent press conference on 18 December, Karimov said, in the context of the U.S. and U.K. air strikes against, that during Soviet times his country had biological weapons: "I can openly say this now...a bacteriological weapon was being developed in the Aral Sea area on Barsa Kelmes Island." Karimov said the leadership of the Uzbek SSR did not know about the program, but he added that since independence, his country has allowed "the international community" to take soil samples "in order to find out the scale of the work, what kind of organisms they were trying to create." BP[12] ...TAKES A SWIPE AT BEREZOVSKIIKarimov also criticized the work of CIS Executive Secretary Boris Berezovskii, saying Berezovskii is ignoring plans to reform the CIS, which are currently being discussed by CIS prime ministers." He added that Berezovskii is attempting "to determine the future of the commonwealth at separate meetings with the presidents of the CIS countries," Interfax reported. Karimov said Berezovskii has a different program from that of "the document approved by the CIS experts." Uzbek Television limited its coverage of Karimov's comments on Berezovskii to the Uzbek president saying he admires Berezovskii but does not like the CIS executive secretary's plan for restructuring the CIS. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[13] KOSOVARS HOLD FUNERAL FOR ŒMARTYRS'ŠSome 5,000 ethnic Albanians attended the funeral at Pagarusha, near Malisheva, on 20 December of 33 members of the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) who died in a clash with Yugoslav forces near the Albanian border (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 December 1998). The men were buried on a ridge that the UCK renamed the "Martyrs' Cemetery," VOA's Albanian Service reported. Rama Buja, whom AP described as "a top UCK commander," told the emotional gathering that "there is no better nor more honorable way to die than to die for one's fatherland." Meanwhile in Tirana, an unidentified Western diplomat told Reuters on 21 December that the "brutal,Šarrogant, [and] uncooperative" UCK has become a serious problem. The diplomat added: "I don't know who the hell they think they are or who they think they're dealing with, but for guys who haven't done anything on the battlefield but embarrass themselves they are incredibly arrogant." PM[14] ŠWHILE SERBS DEMAND PROTECTIONUnidentified gunmen killed a Serbian policeman in the Podujeva area on 21 December, dpa reported. The previous day, some 300 Serbs demonstrated in Prishtina to protest the murder of Zvonko Bojanic, the deputy mayor of Fushe Kosova. Speakers demanded the large-scale return of Serbian paramilitary police to the area even though that would violate the provisions of the two-month-old agreement between Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke. On 19 December, UCK spokesman Adem Demaci denied that the guerrillas killed Bojanic. Demaci stressed that the UCK attacks only army or police targets. Several observers both inside and outside the region have suggested that the several dozen killings in Kosova over the past 10 days have made the Milosevic-Holbrooke agreement a dead letter, VOA's Croatian Service reported on 21 December. PM[15] MILOSEVIC AIDE BLASTS U.S.Zivorad Igic, who is a top aide to Milosevic, told state-run Tanjug news agency on 20 December that Washington is "supportive" of ethnic Albanian "terrorists" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 December 1998). The previous day, three men appeared outside the Prishtina home of William Walker, the U.S. envoy who heads the civilian verification mission for Kosova. One policeman, who was drunk, pointed a pistol at Walker's house, "Danas" on 21 December quoted Walker as saying. One of Walker's unarmed ethnic Albanian bodyguards sought help from a Serbian policeman on duty near the house, but the man refused to leave his post and look into the incident. Walker noted that the Serbian authorities have refused to allow his bodyguards to carry weapons, the independent daily added. The diplomat concluded that the Serbian authorities are not doing enough for his security. PM[16] OGATA FEARS NEW FIGHTINGSadako Ogata, who is the UN's High Commissioner for Refugees, said in Prishtina on 21 December that she fears that full-scale fighting will break out in the province in early 1999 unless the two sides reach a political settlement soon. Ogata arrived in Kosova the previous day to assess the problems facing returning displaced persons and refugees during and after the winter. She said that she is interested in long- term solutions to the Kosovars' problems and not just stop-gap measures. Of the 250,000 people who fled their homes during the 1998 Serbian crackdown, some 75,000 have returned and 175,000 are staying in temporary housing or with friends and relatives. PM[17] ALBANIA REPORTS NEW BORDER VIOLATIONThe Albanian Interior Ministry said in a statement on 19 December that six federal Yugoslav soldiers crossed into Albania the previous day and fired shots into a village in the Tropoja region for about 45 minutes. Another 14 soldiers watched from Yugoslav territory. All Yugoslav soldiers subsequently withdrew from the frontier area. No one was injured in the incident. FS[18] RAPID REACTION FORCE CONTINUE TO ARRIVE IN MACEDONIASome 1,200 troops out of a planned 1,700-strong NATO rapid reaction force have arrived in Macedonia, AP reported on 19 December. The remaining soldiers are due by the end of the first week in January. The force will rescue unarmed civilian monitors in Kosova should they run into danger. The soldiers are based in Kumanovo and Tetovo as well as at Skopje's Petrovec airport. PM[19] FIRE DESTROYS BOSNIAN NEWS AGENCY'S OFFICESA blaze destroyed the offices and equipment of the Onasa news agency in Sarajevo on 19 December. Fire Chief Mesud Jusufovic told "Dnevni Avaz" that the fire was "unprecedented" in its size and heat and that his men used 22 pieces of equipment to stop the blaze from spreading. Police are investigating the cause of the fire. Journalists at the agency appealed to colleagues elsewhere to help them relaunch their operation, which the daily "Oslobodjenje" began in 1994. PM[20] TUDJMAN PRAISES TIES TO RUSSIACroatian President Franjo Tudjman said in Zagreb on 19 December that his two-day trip to Russia does not "mean turning our back on the United States." He added, however, that U.S. Ambassador to Croatia William Montgomery's recent critical remarks of the president are "out of the framework of normal diplomatic relationsŠ[and constitute] far- fetched observations." Tudjman added that Croatia will not allow any country to "treat us like a colony." In Moscow on 18 December, Tudjman praised Russia's "constructive" role in international relations while his aides signed several agreements, including ones on arms purchases and defense. The independent daily "Jutarnji list" wrote on 21 December that Tudjman is promoting ties to Russia in the face of growing U.S. criticism of his policies in Bosnia and at home (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 December 1998). The daily added that any effort to offset problems with Washington by flirting with Moscow is "unproductive" in the post-Cold War world. PM[21] ALBANIA'S BERISHA WANTS PROSECUTOR REMOVEDLawyers for opposition leader Sali Berisha on 18 December formally requested that Prosecutor Bujar Himci be removed from a criminal investigation into Berisha. Himci had signed a summons obliging Berisha to testify as a defendant in connection with his alleged involvement in organizing the coup attempt on 14 September (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 September 1998). Berisha, however, refused to appear. His lawyers argue that Himci is biased, pointing out that the prosecutor earlier charged Berisha with inciting terrorism in an unrelated case. Unidentified persons had bombed Himci's private home on 22 September. Himci subsequently said that Berisha was politically responsible for that attack, "Gazeta Shqiptare" reported on 20 December. FS[22] ROMANIAN MINERS POSTPONE LABOR ACTIONMiners in the Jiu Valley has decided to postpone their strike until after the Christmas vacation, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported on 19 December. They said labor action will be resumed on 4 January. On 18 December, Trade and Industry minister Radu Berceanu refused to receive miners' leader Miron Cozma and told his deputies the government is determined to go ahead with the closure of loss-making pits on 21 December. Cozma was briefly detained by the police because of a court ruling earlier this year banning him from entering the capital for two years. He was freed after court officials clarified that the sentence has been appealed. Meanwhile, miners at the Brad mines ended their hunger strike but continue to take other labor action. Miners at the Minvest copper, gold, and iron mines in the Apuseni Mountains have postponed a planned protest march on Bucharest until 23 December. MS[23] MOLDOVAN PREMIER CONCLUDES GAS DELIVERY DEAL IN MOSCOWPremier Ion Ciubuc signed in Moscow on 18 December an agreement with Gazprom for deliveries of gas supplies in 1999, Infotag and Flux reported. Moldova will pay $60 per 1,000 cubic meters instead of $58, as in this year. Gazprom agreed to increase deliveries from 2.4 to 3 million cubic meters. Chisinau will pay for half of these deliveries in Moldovan products and half in cash. Also on 18 December, Chisinau transferred $3 million to Gazprom toward settling its current debt to that company. The two sides agreed that by end of January 1999, Moldova will transfer $90 million state bonds to Gazprom, ahead of the establishment of a Russian- Moldovan gas company, in which Russia has a 51 percent stake. MS[24] BULGARIAN PREMIER SAYS FIGHT AGAINST CORRUPTION SUCCESSFUL"The mafia no longer sets the rules in the political and economic spheres," Ivan Kostov told the parliament on 18 December, according to BTA. He noted that the decreasing inflation means that borrowers among organized criminal groups can no longer "inflate away their debt to the state." Kostov said the government is powerful enough to deal with the remaining smuggling rings that "generate illegal profits" and were able in the past to bribe administration officials. On 20 December, AP reported that one of the purported leaders of the Bulgarian mafia, Ivo Karamanski, was killed at a villa near Sofia when a quarrel erupted among the guests at a party. Karamanski, a former national rowing champion who ran a prosperous insurance company, was sentenced in 1996 to two years in prison for fraud. MS[C] END NOTE[25] RUSSIA'S ECONOMIC COLLAPSEBy Floriana FossatoRussia's economic landscape at the end of 1998 is a desolate one. In the wake of August's financial collapse, the government's coffers are virtually empty. There is no money to service loans taken out to meet basic state obligations or to pay wage and pension arrears to Russia's impoverished population. Inflation continues to increase. Cautiously optimistic economic forecasts for next year, released by the government of Prime Minister Yevgenii Primakov, have been criticized as aimed at attracting much-needed Western financial aid and placating frustrated domestic constituencies. And economic analysts say the draft 1999 budget recently produced by the government is unrealistic. They point out that it assumes Russia will obtain new loans from the MF and other international organizations, even though IMF officials have repeatedly stressed no additional money will be forthcoming until Russia draws up a credible economic recovery plan. Legislators are willing to help Primakov's government to an unprecedented degree. But many of them also express doubts about the draft budget. In August, former Prime Minister Sergei Kirienko's reformist government brought about its own downfall by devaluing the ruble, defaulting on some debts, and introducing a 90-day moratorium on foreign debt payments. During its five months in office, Kirienko's government had made several frantic attempts to stave off the crash, with Kirienko saying Russia should finally learn to "live by its own means." However, a brutal political fight, fueled by financial tycoons with influential political ties, began to intensify along with the economic crisis. Russia subsequently defaulted on 281 billion ruble- denominated treasury bills and bonds. (That was the equivalent of $43 billion in August and, by year's end, nearly $14 billion, as the ruble fell from six to nearly 21 to the dollar.) Following the financial collapse, Russia's banking sector lost liquidity, payments and salaries were blocked, and many Russians, who had timidly started to trust the banks, lost their savings. Within one week in August both the reformist government and, in effect, the stock market disappeared. Within two weeks, the ruble lost two-thirds of its value. Many of the country's banks turned into empty glass fortresses. Others are being saved by the new government, with little regard for private depositors' losses. Next year, analysts say, Russia may default on $17.5 billion in outstanding payments on its foreign debt, including some $1.7 billion in Eurobonds. That would make it the first country in world history to default on government-guaranteed securities sold abroad. The government and the IMF continue to discuss how Moscow can pay its debts and improve its finances. The outcome of those talks will determine whether the IMF provides additional loans. On both sides, the phrase "fiscal discipline" is repeated like a mantra, but officials involved acknowledge that the chances of Russia radically improving its finances in the coming year are nil. In 1996 and 1997, Russia's economy had begun to show signs of growth. This occurred despite widespread tax delinquency, pervasive capital flight, vitriolic quarrels among the country's oligarchs, and the failure of international financial institutions to offer assistance during Moscow's first attempts at radical reform. So what were the reasons for the collapse in 1998? One reason, many analysts say, was the broader international meltdown that wiped out emerging markets in Asia and produced a global financial crisis. The analysts also point out that international prices for oil, gas, and metals - - all major Russian exports -- sank to record low levels. That spelled disaster for a country in which oil and gas production accounts for about one-third of all domestic taxes and for more than half of foreign-currency revenues. But international experts believe the major cause for the collapse lies elsewhere. They say that the huge debt Russia inherited from the Soviet Union spiraled as a result of additional borrowing by Russia. That, they argue, created a kind of a pyramid that eventually imploded when, because of increasing evidence of widespread corruption and incompetent corporate governance, confidence in Russia began crumbling, Currently, three sets of debt-restructuring talks are under way. The government has appealed for restructuring and refinancing both Russian and Soviet debt. More important, Russia is negotiating new credits with the IMF as well as the refinancing of an estimated $4.8 billion due in repayments to the fund in 1999. Unlike other international debts, those to the IMF cannot be renegotiated. If Russia defaults on its obligations to the IMF, it will join the ranks-and attain the perceived risk level-- of some African countries. Primakov has brought a small measure of economic stability since he took office. But many old bad habits, rejected by the previous reformist government, are. In 1997, President Boris Yeltsin banned barter trade between private companies and the government because it was seen as inflationary, inducing corruption, and a way to avoid structural reform. But the current government has returned to barter to provide fuel and food to some needy Russian regions. Still, the cabinet has performed better than initially feared. It has not resorted to the printing of large amounts of money, which would have led to hyper-inflation. Primakov says there will be no (what he calls) "uncontrolled" printing of money to pay international and domestic debts next year. However, this month, the Duma passed a bill authorizing the printing of 25 billion rubles before the end of the year. The hope is the money will be used to pay wages and pensions. The 1999 draft budget estimates inflation at 30 percent. Some economic analysts say that the best Russia can hope for is a rate of 60 to 70 percent. Despite this and other pessimistic forecasts, the country and its people are muddling through, albeit with difficulty. The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Moscow. 21-12-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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