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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 234, 98-12-08Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 234, 8 December 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] DECISION ON AZERBAIJAN OIL EXPORT PIPELINE AGAIN POSTPONED...Representatives of the oil companies represented in the Azerbaijan International Operating Company engaged in exploiting three offshore Caspian oil fields have again postponed a decision on the optimum route for the Main Export Pipeline for that oil, the Dow Jones Newswire reported on 7 December. The U.S., Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan have all pledged their commitment to routing that pipeline from Baku via Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean terminal at Ceyhan, but the AIOC is reluctant to make a firm commitment to that option, which is considerably more costly than the alternative route to Supsa, on Georgia's Black Sea coast. Interviewed by Reuters on 3 December, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofik Zulfugarov expressed confidence that the Baku-Ceyhan route will ultimately be selected. Zulfugarov downplayed fears that rock-bottom oil prices might render Caspian oil unviable. LF[02] ...AS IRANIAN ALTERNATIVE LOOKS INCREASINGLY ATTRACTIVESpeaking at a conference in London on 5 December, a senior Iranian analyst argued that routing the pipeline southward from Baku to the Persian Gulf is the most cost-effective and secure route, IRNA reported. Two days later, a representative of the French oil company Total told journalists in Baku that Total is considering forming a consortium to build an export pipeline from Baku to Iran, Reuters reported. U.S. oil companies are banned from engaging in operations in Iran, but European oil firms may do so. Moreover, some European governments have reportedly endorsed that variant. LF[03] ARMENIA MARKS 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF SPITAK EARTHQUAKEArmenia observed a day of mourning on 7 December to mark the 10th anniversary of the Spitak earthquake, which destroyed one-third of the country's industrial capacity and killed an estimated 25,000 people. President Robert Kocharian and senior government officials toured the region most severely affected, promising that reconstruction will be completed within three years. But regional governor Ararat Gomtsian said that the government program for reconstruction of the earthquake zone cannot be implemented within that period. He added that of the $150 million needed, only $3 million was allocated in the 1998 budget, according to "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 8 December. On 6 December, Kocharian presented awards to 40 people who played a prominent role in alleviating the consequences of the earthquake, including former Soviet Premier Nikolai Ryzhkov, who helped coordinate relief efforts. LF[04] TWO MORE ABKHAZ POLICEMEN SHOT DEAD BY GUERRILLASTwo Abkhaz policemen died on 7 December when unidentified assailants ambushed and opened fire on their car in Gali Raion, Caucasus Press reported. Abkhaz Security Minister Astamur Tarba laid the blame for the killings on the Georgian White Legion and Forest Brothers guerrilla formations, adding that captured Georgian paramilitaries have confessed to having undergone training at Georgian military bases. The Georgian leadership has consistently denied any connection with or control over those guerrilla formations. LF[05] UNOCAL PULLS OUT OF TURKMEN PROJECTSThe U.S. company Unocal has announced it will cease participating in pipeline projects originating in Turkmenistan, ITAR-TASS reported on 8 December. Unocal suspended its participation in the pipeline project from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan in August, when fighting broke out in northern Afghanistan and the U.S. launched rocket attacks there on camps under the direction of suspected terrorist Osama Bin Laden. On 7 December, the official representative of Unocal, Barry Lain, said his company is pulling out of projects in Central Asia owing to "the lack of good possibilities for capital investment, which have been accented by the low prices for fuel." Unocal has pulled out of all projects around the Caspian Sea excluding those in Azerbaijan. The Anatolia news agency reported on 7 December that Turkish officials are not concerned about Unocal's withdrawal from the proposed Transcaspian pipeline. BP[06] NAZARBAYEV TOURS NORTHERN KAZAKHSTANKazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev met with workers in northern city of Karaganda on 7 December, telling them he expects "total privatization" to take place next year, Interfax reported. Nazarbayev said industrial facilities and banks "must be private" but added that railways, power transmission lines, and oil and gas pipelines "must remain in the hands of the government." He noted that a bill on private land ownership will be passed in 1999 and is expected to give "impetus to the advancement of farming." With regard to the January elections, Nazarbayev said he is sure international monitors will be present during the ballot. BP[07] KAZAKH FOREIGN MINISTER IN WASHINGTONKasymjomart Tokayev, visiting Washington on 7 December, differed with Nazarbayev over what will be up for sale in Kazakhstan next year, Reuters reported. At a dinner in the Kazakh Embassy, Tokayev told reporters that "if the price of oil drops, the government in Kazakhstan is going to sell its shares in various enterprises," singling out, among others, oil and gas, railroad, and telecommunications companies. He did not name any of those firms, however, nor did he say how low the price of oil would have to drop before sales began. Tokayev is visiting Washington to explain the decision to hold early presidential elections, which the U.S. government has criticized. BP[08] COMMUNIST CANDIDATE IN KAZAKH ELECTIONS MEETS WITH PRESSSerikbolsyn Abdildin, the Communist Party candidate for the January presidential ballot, told journalists in Almaty on 8 December that the Russian Communist Party will send observers to the election,. RFE/RL correspondents reported. Abdildin blamed incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev and the Kazakh government for the "terrible economic situation in the country" and accused them of involvement in corruption. Abdildin said he will not heed a call from former Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin to withdraw from the race, Interfax reported on 8 December. According to Reuters the previous day, Kazhegeldin's press office had released a statement calling on Abdildin, as the only candidate outside Nazarbayev's sphere of influence, to withdraw his candidacy so that "Nazarbayev cannot create the impression of honest elections." BP[09] AKAYEV SPEAKS OUT ON DOMESTIC PROBLEMSKyrgyz President Askar Akayev said at a 7 December meeting marking the 50th anniversary of UN Declaration on Human Rights that "bureaucratic officials" sometimes do not pay attention to the constitutional rights of Kyrgyz citizens, Interfax reported. He noted that Kyrgyzstan still does not have sufficiently stable democratic institutions, legal standards are too low, and legislation is imperfect. He added that the parliament will introduce legislation on new criminal and civil procedural codes as well as on the Supreme Court and local judiciaries. And he warned that organized crime is putting additional pressure on the economy and also involves senior officials. BP[10] UZBEK PRESIDENT RECEIVES EMIR TIMUR AWARDIslam Karimov on 7 December was awarded the Emir Timur Order to mark his achievements in creating a sovereign state, increasing respect for Uzbekistan worldwide, strengthening civil peace and national accord, and preserving and boosting cultural values, Interfax reported. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[11] SERBIAN MINISTER WARNS MONITORS...Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Tomislav Nikolic said in Belgrade on December 7 that "if the peace process [in Kosova] is established no one will be jeopardized, including the verifiers. But if Albanian terrorists are allowed to strut around, murder, kidnap we shall have to conduct the same action again as this summer but this time we shall go to the end regardless of what others think.... If the West, the Americans, Germans, French, British think there should be peace in [Kosova], then they should not send their troops to Macedonia." PM[12] ...RECEIVES REBUKE FROM SOLANAWhen asked about Nikolic's remarks, NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana said in Brussels on 7 December that a decision by the alliance that authorized air strikes against Serbia remains in effect. He added, "We are not going to tolerate statements like the ones...that have been made today." Solana discussed the deployment of NATO troops to Macedonia with Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 December 1998). The Macedonian leader said that "the mandate of these forces is quite clear: they are peace forces and they are to react only if the life of verifiers is in danger. And we do not treat [the deployment] at all as a hostile act towards a neighbor." The following day, NATO foreign ministers in a statement called on both the Serbs and the Kosovars not to exacerbate tensions in Kosova. PM[13] FRENCH SEND MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO MACEDONIAThe transport ship "Ouragan" left Toulon for Thessaloniki on 6 December, Reuters reported the next day. On board the ship are 128 vehicles, including "many" armored personnel carriers, and 160 ground troops, who will travel to Macedonia by land. An advance party for the French-led NATO rapid reaction force arrived in Macedonia by air on 6 December (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 December 1998). PM[14] KOSOVARS CALL NEW HILL PLAN 'UNACCEPTABLE'Fehmi Agani, who heads the negotiating team appointed by shadow-state President Ibrahim Rugova, told a press conference in Prishtina on 7 December that U.S. envoy Chris Hill's latest plan for a settlement in Kosova is "almost identical to the Serbian proposal for Kosova...[and] cannot be considered a basis for...future negotiations." Agani stressed that Hill's plan is unacceptable because it anchors Kosova in the Serbian legal system rather than offering broad autonomy (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 December 1998). He added that Adem Demaci, who is the political spokesman for the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), also rejects Hill's proposal, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Kosovar capital. PM[15] ALBANIAN MINISTRY REJECTS SERBIAN CHARGESThe Foreign Ministry issued a statement in Tirana on 8 December denying repeated claims by Serbian officials that Albania is providing training facilities for the UCK and is seeking to establish a "greater Albania." The statement added that "behind these unfounded accusations...is hidden the well-known aim of Belgrade to hamper and turn back the process of finding a real political solution to the Kosova problem." FS[16] SERBIAN MEDIA SITUATION CALLED 'WORST IN EUROPE'Robert Menard, who heads Reporters without Borders, said in Belgrade on 7 December that Serbia is the worst country "in all of Europe" with regard to freedom of the media, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Serbian capital. He called on the Serbian authorities to repeal the recent press law, under which several periodicals have been shut down and radio stations forbidden to rebroadcast programs in Serbo-Croatian from abroad. PM[17] GELBARD SAYS POPLASEN BLOCKING DAYTONRobert Gelbard, who is President Bill Clinton's special envoy for the former Yugoslavia, said in Banja Luka on 7 December that Republika Srpska President Nikola Poplasen's "actions and his words have shown us that he is against the Dayton agreement," which ended the Bosnian war in 1995. Gelbard added that Poplasen "appears to be using democratic mechanisms for anti- democratic purposes." Poplasen, for his part, said in a statement that he is "ready to accept any argument about the violation of the Dayton agreement and, if it happens, do everything to put a stop to it." Poplasen, who belongs to Vojislav Seselj's Serbian Radical Party, defeated moderate former President Biljana Plavsic in elections in September. PM[18] BOSNIAN SERB GENERAL PLEADS INNOCENTGeneral Radislav Krstic told the Hague-based war crimes tribunal on 7 December that he is innocent of charges of genocide in connection with the massacre of some 7,000 Muslim men and boys following the fall of Srebrenica in the summer of 1995 (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 December 1998). The VOA quoted international forensics experts as saying that they have examined mass graves in the Srebrenica area and that the evidence suggests the victims were executed. Many persons were mutilated and some had their hands bound with wire. Krstic commanded the Drina Corps in the area at the time. PM[19] BOSNIA TO LAUNCH PRIVATIZATIONThe mainly Croatian and Muslim federation will start privatization within the next two months, Privatization Agency director Adnan Mujagic said in Sarajevo on 7 December. He added that before the process can begin, the international community's Carlos Westendorp must confirm that Bosnia's privatization laws are in order and a privatization agency for Mostar Canton must be set up. Tensions between Muslims and Croats are at their highest in the Mostar area. PM[20] CROATIA, BOSNIA BEGIN WORK ON BORDER ISSUESMembers of the border commissions from the two neighboring republics agreed in Banja Luka on 7 December on the order in which they will seek to resolve questions regarding their common frontier. First on the agenda for the next session is the region around Martin Brod, in western Bosnia. It is unclear when or where that meeting will take place. PM[21] TUDJMAN BLASTS 'DARK FORCES'Croatian President Franjo Tudjman told the opening session of the Central Committee of the governing Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) in Zagreb on 7 December that he firmly rejects what he called unwarranted demands by unnamed "centers" abroad on "the sovereign Croatian state." Tudjman stressed that he will "not allow" anyone to establish a "different Croatia" that will "serve outside interests" and regard itself as part of the Balkans, rather than a Central European country. The president added that the media in Croatia are much freer than their counterparts in many of the countries that criticize Croatia. Tudjman said that Croatia will not follow anyone's orders and urged other countries to mind their own business, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. He did not specify which countries he meant. PM[22] GANG ROBS TIRANA-ATHENS BUS, KILLS POLICEMANA group of armed men robbed the Tirana-Athens bus at Kthesat e Greshices, near Tepelena, on 6 December and killed a policeman riding on the bus, ATSH news agency reported. Four of the robbers reportedly trapped the policeman by surrounding him inside the bus while other robbers ambushed the vehicle. Police have recently begun to travel in passenger buses to protect them against robberies. The Tirana-Athens line is particularly important because it takes migrant workers to jobs in Greece and brings them back. Buses are the mainstay of public transportation in Albania. FS[23] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION ENDS PARLIAMENTARY BOYCOTTThe leaders of the Party of Social Democracy in Romania, the Party of Romanian National Unity, and the Greater Romania Party--Ion Iliescu, Valeriu Tabara, and Corneliu Vadim Tudor--have agreed with Senate Chairman Petre Roman to set up three committees to discuss a parliamentary relations code and legislative priorities and to re-examine the opposition's move to debate a law-based state, Romanian media reported on 7 December. Representatives of both the ruling coalition and the opposition would belong to those committees. The coalition's rejection of such a move led to the parliamentary boycott that began in mid-November. Iliescu, Tabara, and Tudor said they might renew the boycott if the committees' decisions or the implementation of those decisions are unsatisfactory. MS[24] RENAULT TO HAVE MAJORITY STAKE IN ROMANIAN CAR FACTORYThe State Property Fund on 7 December received a bid from the French Renault firm for a 51 percent stake in the Dacia car producer of Pitesti, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. The French firm was the only bidder to make the deadline set by the fund, although other foreign automakers had earlier expressed an interest. Dacia produced Renault vehicles under license from 1968-1979. A spokesman for the fund said Renault plans to make large investments in the Romanian automaker and that the talks are expected to last no longer than several weeks. MS[25] FORMER BULGARIAN PREMIER SUED FOR LIBEL, INSULTZhan Videnov, who was Bulgarian premier from 1994-1996, on 7 December appeared in a Sofia court to face charges of libel and insult, AP reported. Atanas Tilev, a Bulgarian-born German businessman, sued Videnov for 15 million leva (some $9,000), after Videnov accused him of shady dealings in Bulgaria. If found guilty, Videnov could be sentenced to up to three years in prison. A bank owned by Tilev went bankrupt at the end of Videnov's tenure as premier, and Tilev has since accused a group of people close to Videnov of illegally siphoning money out of his bank. Two of the group's members were charged with embezzlement after fleeing abroad in 1997. MS[C] END NOTE[26] NEW SLOVAK GOVERNMENT INHERITS DIFFICULT ECONOMIC SITUATIONby Michael WyzanThe government of Slovak Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda, which took office on 30 October, has found the country's economy beset by serious problems. On 1 October, five days after the elections, the National Bank of Slovakia abandoned the first exchange rate for the Slovak crown, which had been introduced in 1993, in the face of a rapidly rising current account deficit. On 12 November, the cabinet doubled the projected 1998 budget deficit to 19.2 billion crowns ($549 million), 2.7 percent of GDP (compared with a projected 0.7 percent). The higher deficit figure is not alarming, but the true budget picture is far worse when losses at state-owned enterprises are taken into account. Like its Romanian counterpart after November 1996, the new Slovak coalition government, committed to political and economic reform as well as rapprochement with Western institution, will likely find that economic performance deteriorates at the beginning of its term in office. And as in Romania and the Czech Republic, the question arises as to what extent and for how long the economy (and perhaps the new government's popularity) will pay the price for its predecessor's transgressions. Slovakia's economic performance has always been puzzling. In terms of economic growth, Slovakia is one of the stars of the post-communist world, with GDP increasing by 6.5-7 percent annually from 1995-1997. Rapid growth continued in the first half of 1998, with GDP up by 6.1 percent. For years, observers queried whether such GDP growth figures could be sustained in a country where little economic restructuring seemed to be taking place and which had received relatively little foreign direct investment (a cumulative $1.3 billion from 1993 through June 1998, based on balance-of-payments data). Both of these problems result largely from a non- transparent method of privatization that favored elements politically allied to the former government. It would be expected that fast economic growth in a small open economy would be driven by rapid growth of exports. However, exports of goods and services grew at average annual rate of 2.8 percent (in constant crowns) from 1995-1997, less than half the GDP growth rate. It is now clear that economic growth has been driven by a boom in state- sector infrastructure investment in projects like the Mochovce nuclear power station and the Gabcikovo hydroelectric power plant. Such investments contributed to an overheated economy and did little to reduce unemployment, which reached 13.8 percent in August (compared with 12.8 percent a year earlier), by far the highest figure among the four original Visegrad countries. The investment boom contributed to the fact that imports in constant crowns grew over the last four years almost twice as fast as GDP. The result has been sizable trade and current account deficits, which after falling somewhat in 1997--owing to special measures to restrain imports taken by the authorities, which refused to devalue the crown--are up again substantially this year. The current-account imbalance for the first three quarters was about $1.6 billion, compared with $1.1 billion during the period January-September 1997. This means that the deficit will be around 10 percent of GDP for 1998. It is clear that the economy will have to be slowed down to ensure that external imbalances are under control. Slovakia has relied heavily on short- term borrowing (more than 40 percent of the growing foreign debt is short term) and interest rates on such loans are high--especially since several rating agencies have lowered Slovakia's credit ratings during 1998 and international lenders have re-evaluated their relations with transition countries after the Russian debt default. Letting the National Bank's foreign reserves decline, from $3.7 billion in July to $3.0 billion in October, is hardly a sustainable substitute for foreign borrowing. What is less certain is how steep a decline the Slovak economy will undergo. Given the rapid growth in the first half of the year, GDP will probably grow by 4-5 percent this year. Growth projections for next year run as low as 0 percent, although most forecasts are closer to 2.5-3 percent. There are two key issues that will determine the Slovak economy's medium- term growth prospects. The first is how depressed the economy must become in order to have the current account deficit within acceptable limits. Although the government can do little about conditions on international capital markets, it could reduce the severity of the necessary contraction by a wave of cash privatizations of public utilities, which remain in state hands. The second issue is whether the coalition government will prove sufficiently cohesive to make tough economic decisions on such questions as wage policy and privatization. The paralysis that has saddled Romania with a collapsing economy two years after electing a reformist coalition government must be avoided at all costs. The author is a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. 08-12-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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