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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 228, 98-11-25Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 228, 25 November 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] 'BLACK DAY' FOR KAZAKH DEMOCRACYThe press service of former Kazakh Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin issued a statement on 25 November commenting on the Supreme Court decision the previous day that bars Kazhegeldin from running in the 10 January presidential elections (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 November) , RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty reported. The statement said the Supreme Court's decision proves there is no political mechanism that might influence the current government and its "pocket parliament." Kazhegeldin's press secretary, Amirzhan Kosanov, said the decision represents a "black day for Kazakh democracy." He added that that Kazhegeldin will hold the first session of his newly created political movement next week. Earlier this month, Kazhegeldin had twice announced that he would convene the founding congress of that movement within the next few days but failed to do so on both occasions. LF/BP[02] KAZAKH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE COMPLAINS ABOUT MEDIA ACCESSKarishal Assanov, who has registered to run in the January presidential elections as an independent, said incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev has greater access to the media than his opponents, RFE/RL correspondents reported. Assanov made the comments at a press conference in Almaty on 24 November, adding that some candidates have been deprived of any access to the country's media. BP[03] FOUR CANDIDATES TO CONTEST KAZAKH ELECTIONS?President Nazarbayev's campaign manager, former Prime Minister Sergei Tereshchenko, told journalists he expects there will be three candidates running against Nazarbayev in the January presidential elections, RFE/RL correspondents in Astana reported on 24 November. Tereshchenko listed parliamentary deputy Engels Gabbasov, Customs Committee chief Gani Kasymov, and Communist Party leader Serikbolsyn Abdildin as the likely rivals. Tereshchenko noted, however, that with less than one week before the deadline to register expires, only Nazarbayev has collected the required 170,000 signatures and paid the necessary fee to the Central Election Commission. Meanwhile, Nazarbayev visited the northern city of Pavlodar on 24 November, where he told journalists that his country will be a major oil and gas exporter in the next century, Interfax reported. BP[04] KYRGYZ PARLIAMENT INCREASES EXCISE TAXESLawmakers on 24 November voted to double excise tax on alcohol and oil products, RFE/RL correspondents in Bishkek reported. Finance Minister Taalaibek Koichumanov told the parliament that the state budget is likely to be short by 100 million som ($3.4 million) at the end of this year. Meanwhile, there was better news at exchange offices in the Kyrgyz capital, where the som was trading at 29 to $1. Deputy Prime Minister Boris Silayev blamed the fall of the som, which last week plummeted to 35 to $1, on exchange offices. He added that he favors closing all such offices and transferring their tasks to commercial banks. BP[05] AZERBAIJANI PARLIAMENT ENACTS PENALTIES FOR UNSANCTIONED DEMONSTRATIONSIn another move aimed at further restricting the activities of opposition parties, the Azerbaijani parliament on 24 November voted by 80 to seven to impose prison sentences of up to three years for organizing or participating in an unsanctioned demonstration, Reuters reported. On 13 November, lawmakers had passed legislation limiting the right to hold public demonstrations. Last week, the opposition Movement for Electoral Reform and Democratic Elections postponed for one week a rally planned for 22 November after the Baku authorities refused permission for such a meeting. LF[06] AZERBAIJAN TO SELL STAKE IN INTERNATIONAL BANKPresident Heidar Aliev has authorized the sale of all but 5 percent of the state's 51 percent stake in the International Bank of Azerbaijan, AFP and Interfax reported on 24 November. The bank is the country's largest and is involved in more than 90 percent of the country's import- export deals. It is anticipated that either the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development or a similar international financial institution will acquire 20 percent of the shares. LF[07] ARMENIAN LEADERS, OSCE CHAIRMAN DISCUSS KARABAKHPolish Foreign Minister and OSCE Chairman-in- Office Bronislaw Geremek met in Yerevan on 24 November with Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and also held separate talks with the president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Arkadii Ghukasian, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Geremek told reporters later that he is "very happy" that the Karabakh authorities are displaying "goodwill" over the most recent OSCE draft Karabakh peace plan. He said he hopes to get a "good answer" in Baku, where he will discuss Azerbaijan's reported objections to that plan on 25 November. Both Kocharian and Ghukasian have undertaken to give an official response to the new peace proposals within the next few days. LF[08] ARMENIAN OPPOSITION PARTIES ASSESS NEW ELECTION LAWIn a statement to the parliament on 24 November, the center-right National Democratic Union (AZhM) said it may boycott next year's parliamentary elections unless the election law passed last week is amended to preclude falsification of the vote, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The previous day, former Armenian Communist Party First Secretary Karen Demirchian called for the new law's architect, the majority Yerkrapah parliamentary group, and eleven opposition parties, including the AZhM and Demirchian's recently founded center-left People's Party of Armenia, to reach a "consensus" to ensure that the parliamentary elections are free and fair. Demirchian urged Yerkrapah to agree to unspecified concessions in order to avoid precipitating "splits in society." LF[09] GEORGIAN REJECTS ABKHAZ LEADER'S CHARGESGeorgian presidential adviser for international affairs Levan Aleksidze has denied that Georgia is to blame for obstacles to the planned signing of two land-mark agreements by President Eduard Shevardnadze and Abkhaz leader Vladislav Ardzinba, Interfax reported on 24 November. Ardzinba had said on 23 November that Georgia is insisting on revising the previously agreed text of a protocol on the repatriation of ethnic Georgian displaced persons to Abkhazia's Gali Raion. Aleksidze denied this but in turn accused Abkhazia of trying to insert into the agreements a clause whereby Georgia would recognize Abkhazia's independence. LF[10] GEORGIA-CZECH MILITARY COOPERATION AGREEMENT SIGNEDCzech Deputy Defense Minister Jaromir Novotny has completed a three-day visit to Georgia during which he discussed the possible repair and purchase of spare parts for SU-25 fighter aircraft, Caucasus Press reported. The deal would be worth some $10 million. Novotny also told journalists in Tbilisi on 24 November that a bilateral cooperation agreement whereby the Czech Republic will train Georgian army officers will be signed next year. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[11] MILOSEVIC SACKS ARMY CHIEFYugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic on 24 November replaced General Momcilo Perisic with General Dragoljub Ojdanic as army chief of staff, Tanjug reported. Perisic has repeatedly refused to take sides in the dispute between Milosevic and the Montenegrin leadership and has stressed that the army must stay out of politics. He recently said in a newspaper interview that senior politicians, whom he did not name, are responsible for the conflict in Kosova because they failed over many years to find a political solution to the problem (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 October 1998). Perisic and other army officers have long been resentful of what they regard as Milosevic's favoring the paramilitary police over the army. In October, Milosevic sacked Jovica Stanisic, his intelligence chief. Observers in Belgrade told "RFE/RL Newsline" that Milosevic may feel he has already lost control of Kosova and is now preparing for a showdown with the Montenegrin leadership. PM[12] UCK TO COMPROMISE ON HILL PLAN?Adem Demaci, who is the political spokesman for the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), said in Prishtina on 24 November that U.S. envoy Chris Hill's plan for an interim political settlement "is far from what we really want, but we are not rejecting it." Demaci added that "the UCK has no illusions...and it is preparing, if need be, to rise again in defense of the Albanian people. I am not an optimist. I'm afraid that the Serb regime will once more force us into spilling blood," AP quoted him as saying. PM[13] KOSOVARS CHARGE THAT SERBIAN FORCES ARE RETURNINGThe Democratic League of Kosova, which is the leading ethnic Albanian political party in the province, said in a statement in Prishtina on 24 November that Serbian paramilitary police have recently returned to several localities that witnessed extensive fighting earlier this year. The statement added that the police have resumed shelling and looting in some places. Elsewhere, the Kosovar news agency KIC reported that harsh winter weather has led to "difficult humanitarian conditions" in the Skenderaj, Malisheva, and Klina regions. Among the problems identified by KIC are shortages of power, water, medicines, food, clothing, and fuel. Some 15,000 people remain "without a roof over their heads" in the Malisheva area, which is the poorest in Kosova, and another 30,000 are homeless in the central Klina region. PM[14] SERBIAN JOURNALIST CALLS PRESS LAW 'PSYCHOLOGICAL TORTURE'Veran Matic, who heads independent Belgrade Radio B-92 and the Independent Association of Serbian Journalists, wrote in "Danas" on 25 November that the month-old draconian press law aims at meeting the "immediate political goals of the governing fascist-Stalinist coalition" headed by Milosevic. Matic charged that the law seeks to foment a sense of insecurity among journalists, so that they are never quite sure of what is permitted and what is not. Matic likened this to "psychological torture in concentration camps" and charged that the authorities' goal is to force journalists into silence. PM[15] MONTENEGRIN PRIME MINISTER BLASTS SERBIAN PRESS POLICYFilip Vujanovic told a news conference in Podgorica on 24 November that the Serbian authorities' policies toward the media only serve to promote a lack of democracy in that country, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. He added that Montenegrin courts will not carry out or be affected by rulings of Serbian courts. Vujanovic stressed that he does not feel that Yugoslavia is heading for dissolution. He added that Montenegro opposes giving Kosova republican status equal to that of Serbia and Montenegro. PM[16] MUSLIMS TELL U.S. TO 'GET OFF THEIR BACKS'Several prominent Bosnian Muslim political leaders, including Alija Izetbegovic, Haris Silajdzic, and Edhem Bicakcic, signed a letter saying that U.S. envoy Richard Sklar's alleged accusation that "all Bosnian politicians are corrupt" is a "lie." They added that Sklar should "finally publicly name those he accuses of corruption or get off our backs." The leaders stressed that "we are not thieves." Ejup Ganic, who is president of the mainly Muslim and Croatian federation, wrote a similar letter to Sklar, AP reported. PM[17] CROATIAN MINISTER ADMITS PHONE TAPPINGInterior Minister Ivan Penic said in Zagreb on 24 November that "there is no systematic tapping of journalists' phones or the creation of files" on them. He added, however, that the security services conduct "random" phone taps on people they believe to be part of the "security problem." Membership in any particular profession, he stressed, does "not clear someone," and "the intelligence service has a data base of persons who in any way were a part of the security problem." He did not elaborate. The weekly "Globus" recently charged that the intelligence services keep extensive files on journalists, including information about their private lives. The opposition and moderates within the governing Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) have frequently said that the HDZ's hard-liners use the intelligence services for political purposes. PM[18] SLOVENIAN COALITION'S FUTURE IN DOUBTResults from the 22 November local elections show that Prime Minister Janez Drnovsek's Liberal Democrats are the most popular party, with 25 percent of the total votes, up from 17 percent in the 1994 local elections. But the share of the votes for Drnovsek's main coalition partner, the Slovenian People's Party (SLS), fell from nearly 13 percent to just over 10 percent. Observers in Ljubljana said that the future of the coalition is now in doubt, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported on 25 November. Janez Jansa's rightist Social Democrats won the second largest number of votes, with just over 17 percent of the total, a gain of more than 3 percent over 1994. The big losers were Lojze Peterle's Christian Democrats, whose share of the total fell from 18 percent to 10 percent. PM[19] ROW CONTINUES OVER ALBANIAN REFERENDUMA spokesman for the Central Election Commission said in Tirana on 24 November that in the 22 November referendum on the constitution, results from 14 out of 37 regions "show a turnout of 56 percent and more than 90 percent voted for the constitution" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 November 1998). Results from the far south are due in Tirana on 25 November, and tallies from the snow-bound north will be delivered by helicopter. Elsewhere in Tirana, Ridvan Bode, the secretary-general of the opposition Democratic Party, told 2,000 protesters that "the constitution is dead but [the authorities] are trying to exhume it by manipulating" the electoral results, Reuters reported. PM[20] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT SAYS OPPOSITION BEHAVIOR THWARTING INTEGRATIONEmil Constantinescu has accused opposition parties of ruining Romania's image in the eyes of Western Europe, Reuters reported on 24 November. The president, speaking on the eve of a visit by NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana, said that the boycotting of the parliament by leftist and nationalist parties (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 November 1998) and their rejection of his offer to discuss problems are imperiling Romania's attempts to integrate into Euro- Atlantic structures. Former President Ion Iliescu, the head of the Party of Social Democracy in Romania, refused a meeting with Constantinescu on 24 November, as did other nationalist parties. The lack of a quorum in the parliament has stalled the passage of reform legislation. PB[21] ROMANIAN, HUNGARIAN CULTURAL MINISTERS SIGN PACTSHungarian National Cultural Heritage Minister Jozsef Hamori and his Romanian counterpart, Ion Caramitru, signed two framework agreements in Bucharest on 24 November, Hungarian media reported. One accord promotes bilateral cultural cooperation, the other concerns the joint protection of monuments. The two ministers agreed to develop concrete proposals on expanding cooperation between their ministries until 2001. Hamori also met with several representatives of the coalition Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania. MSZ[22] EXTREME COLD IN ROMANIA LEADS TO DOZENS OF DEATHSSixty people have died in Romania over the past few days owing to sub-zero temperatures, AFP reported. Police reported that 24 people were found frozen to death on 23 November alone. PB[23] MOLDOVA RECEIVING ELECTRICITY FROM ROMANIARomanian Prime Minister Radu Vasile said his country is supplying Moldova with 15 percent of its energy needs, AP reported on 24 November. Vasile, who recently met with Moldovan Deputy Premier Valeriu Dolganiuc to discuss Chisinau's electricity needs (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 November 1998), said Romania can supply up to 60 percent of those needs. Moldovan authorities said Bucharest will decide if it wants to be paid in cash or receive instead a stake in MoldTelecom, the national telecommunications company. The Moldovan state electricity company is owed some 1.8 billion lei ($300 million) by industrial and domestic consumers unable to pay their bills. PB[24] MULTINATIONAL BALKAN FORCE TO BE LOCATED IN BULGARIAMilitary officials from Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, and Turkey agreed on 24 November in Istanbul that the headquarters of a multinational Balkan military force will be in the southern Bulgarian city of Plovdiv, an RFE/RL correspondent in Sofia reported. The officials said the headquarters will rotate to a different country every four years. In other news, Bulgarian Premier Ivan Kostov appointed parliament deputies Zdravko Zafirov and Plamen Radonov as deputy defense ministers. Both are members of Kostov's party, the Union of Democratic Forces. They replace Simeon Petkovsky and Rumen Kanchev, who were sacked 10 days ago. PB[C] END NOTE[25] ROMANIAN ECONOMY CONTINUES TO PERFORM POORLYMichael WyzanAlone among the transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Romania's economy has by most measures performed worse since a reformist government was elected to replace the former Communists (in Romania's case, in November 1996). Although inflation is down and the exchange rate has been relatively stable this year, gross domestic product (GDP) will decline substantially for the second consecutive year and privatization efforts have largely stalled. Finance Minister Daniel Daianu, who is credited with having kept the budget deficit and foreign debt from getting out of control, was dismissed on 23 September. Even before his departure, rating agencies, concerned about the coalition government's bickering and policy paralysis as well as about possible contagion from the Russian financial crisis, had begun to lower Romania's credit rating. The time pattern of the changes in Romania's GDP is unique among transition countries. After experiencing positive growth from 1993 to 1996, this output measure fell by 6.6 percent in 1997, similar to the 6.9 percent GDP decline suffered that year by Bulgaria, which was in the throes of a severe economic crisis. GDP declined by a further 5.2 percent in the first half of 1998, compared with the same period in 1997, and industrial production was down by 19.1 percent over the same period. Forecasts of the GDP decline for 1998 as a whole range from 3 percent to 6 percent and higher. Such a steep decline would generally be expected to increase the budget deficit (because of a decline in revenues from various taxes) but to reduce the trade deficit (because of weakening imports). It became clear during this summer that the fiscal imbalance of 3.6 percent of GDP, approved by the parliament in May, was no longer realistic. However, in early September, the parliament (on Daianu's recommendation) approved a temporary 6 percent surcharge on most imports, excise hikes on tobacco and alcohol, and a state sector wage freeze in the fourth quarter. These measures are expected to hold the deficit to 4 percent of GDP this year, although promises by new Finance Minister Traian Remes to cut taxes in 1999 call into question the sustainability of this fiscal strengthening. More surprising, external sector indicators have not improved as the economy has declined, with the slower growth of imports more than offset by a fall in exports. The latter during the first six months were $4.1 billion, down by 1.3 percent from January-June 1997, while imports were $5.4 billion, up by 4.0 percent. The current account deficit has increased in tack with the trade imbalance, the former reaching $1.1 billion in January-June 1998, compared with $864 million in the first half of 1997. These imbalances are not unusually large for the region, and observers expect the current account deficit to be an unremarkable 4-5 percent of GDP this year. Moreover, the foreign reserves rose from $2 billion in July 1997 to $2.6 billion in July 1998, mostly owing to an increase in foreign direct investment late in 1997. Nonetheless, Romania remains relatively unattractive to foreign investors, especially under the conditions on world financial markets after the Russian crisis, which has raising concern over how Bucharest will finance its external imbalances. This unease is heightened by the bunching of foreign debt service this year ($1.7 billion) and next ($2.2 billion). The leu, which finished 1997 at 8,023 to the dollar, has weakened relatively little this year (by about 11 percent through September). But following an recent increase in its rate of depreciation, it is now at almost 10,000 to the dollar. Nonetheless, this year's more stable currency reflects the fall in retail price inflation to 52 percent in the 12 months to August 1998, compared with 152 percent in 1997. Although inflation has slowed and the decline of the leu has abated, wages have continued to grow. Both the monthly wage expressed in dollars and the real wage (measured in leu) have risen considerably. The gross dollar wage was $154 in June, up from $108 in June 1997. Trends in Romanian unemployment are difficult to relate to movements in wages. The jobless rate peaked in early 1994 at 11.3 percent and then declined to 6.1 in November 1996, before rising to reach 9.6 percent in February of this year. It then declined over the course of 1998, the most recent figure being 8.8 percent in June. Romania's economy apparently has more in common with Russia's (and those of other CIS states) than with those elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe. The failure to implement structural reform has made it difficult to turn reduced inflation and a more stable exchange rate into sustainable economic growth. Both Romania and Russia have learned that under such conditions, these improvements in macroeconomic stability cannot be sustained either. The author is a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. 25-11-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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