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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 206, 98-10-23Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 206, 23 October 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT MEETS WITH PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITYRobert Kocharian met for the second time in 10 days with members of the Yerkrapah parliament group on 22 October, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported quoting the presidential press service. The discussion focused on "all major spheres of state policy," including the ongoing disagreement between the Yerkrapah and other parliamentary groups over the draft election law. Kocharian told the Yerkrapah deputies that the group constitutes "the government's support base in the National Assembly" and that close cooperation between the government and the legislature is "a necessary precondition" for the parliament's activity to be effective. The Yerkrapah deputies called for more frequent discussions of policy issues with members of the government. A dozen Yerkrapah deputies sided with the opposition in a failed vote earlier this month to revoke several major privatization deals in which Yerevan enterprises were sold to foreign investors. LF[02] KAZAKHSTAN PREPARED TO JOIN ABKHAZ MEDIATIONSpeaking at a Tbilisi press conference on 22 October, Kazakh Prime Minister Nurlan Balghymbayev said his country "is not opposed" to joining the UN Secretary-General's Friends of Georgia group, Caucasus Press reported. The group, which comprises the U.S., France, Germany, the U.K., and Russia, is engaged in trying to mediate a political settlement between Georgia and Abkhazia. Balghymbayev added that Kazakhstan may provide a peacekeeping battalion to serve in Abkhazia under either UN or CIS auspices. LF[03] TWO MORE POLICEMEN KILLED IN ABKHAZIATwo Abkhaz policemen were killed and two more wounded in a shoot-out on 22 October with ethnic Georgians in the village of Nabakevi in Abkhazia's Gali Raion, Caucasus Press reported. The policemen had tried to steal belongings from the Georgians' homes. LF[04] USE OF GEORGIAN ARMY AGAINST INSURGENTS DISCUSSEDMikhail Saakashvili, chairman of the majority Union of Citizens of Georgia group within the Georgian parliament, told journalists on 22 October that the use of regular army troops to quash the 19 October insurgency in western Georgia was not a violation of the Georgian Constitution, Caucasus Press reported. Saakashvili argued that if the army had not intervened, the several hundred rebels could have taken Kutaisi, Georgia's second-largest city, and marched on Tbilisi. Vakhtang Khmaladze, chairman of the League for Protection of the Constitution, argued in an article published in "Akhali Kartuli gazeti" the same day that the use of army troops is prohibited by the constitution unless a state of emergency has been declared and that Interior Ministry troops should have been deployed instead. LF[05] MEHTIEV SAYS HE HAS PROOF ALIEV IS A KURDAshraf Mehtiev, chairman of the Association of Victims of Illegal Political Repression who was defeated in the recent Azerbaijani presidential elections, has told the independent Azerbaijani television station ANS that he has proof corroborating persistent rumors that President Heidar Aliev is an ethnic Kurd and a Yezidi, "Vremya-MN" reported on 22 October. Mehtiev referred to an article published in the daily newspaper of the Azerbaijan Communist Party Central Committee in 1934 stating that Aliev's elder brother Hasan was the first Kurd to embark on graduate studies in the USSR. LF[06] KAZHEGELDIN RETURNS TO KAZAKHSTANFormer Prime Minister and presidential hopeful Akezhan Kazhegeldin returned to Kazakhstan on 22 October following a week spent in Moscow and London, RFE/RL correspondents in Astana reported. Kazhegeldin brought with him documents that he believes will clear him of all charges of corruption (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 October 1998). Kazhegeldin handed over to the Central Electoral Commission the necessary documents proving he is mentally competent to serve as president, and he passed the Kazakh language proficiency test necessary to run in the presidential elections. He has also filed a protest with the Kazakh Supreme Court against a ruling that could lead to a three-day jail sentence or a fine for participating in a meeting of the For Fair Elections movement in early October. Kazhegeldin arrived at the court with a team of lawyers from Washington D.C. to file the protest. BP[07] KAZAKH NEWSPAPER'S PROPERTY IMPOUNDED BY AUTHORITIESLaw enforcement officials on 22 October seized property of the newspaper "DAT" were seized by , RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty reported. The newspaper was fined 35 million tenge (some $437,000) earlier in October for "publishing false information about Kazakh officials." BP[08] KAZAKH OFFICIAL HINTS AT CHANGES TO COUNTRY'S BUDGETFirst Deputy Prime Minister Uraz Jandosov said on 22 October that the current world economic situation will decide if Kazakhstan's 1999 budget needs to be changed, Interfax reported. Jandosov said if the international economic crisis abates by the middle of next year and prices for Kazakhstan's major exports do not continue to drop, the budget will remain unchanged. Interfax also reported that Kazakhstan will not achieve the predicted 3 percent rise in GDP this year. Figures for January-August indicate a growth of 1.2 percent. That figure is unlikely to change for the year as a whole. BP[09] SHELLS FROM AFGHANISTAN LAND ON TAJIK TERRITORYThree mortar shells from Afghanistan landed near the Pyanj border crossing in Tajikistan on 22 October, ITAR-TASS reported. No one was injured, but the Russian border guards said the incident is evidence that fighting is moving closer to Tajikistan. In related news, UN special envoy to Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi arrived in Dushanbe on 23 October to discuss the Afghan situation with members of the Tajik government. While in Dushanbe, Brahimi is also scheduled to meet with Afghan General Ahmed Shah Masoud, who is fighting against Taliban movement forces. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[10] SERBS SAYS THEIR FORCES 'STABILIZING' KOSOVA"Large numbers of troops and police have not budged" from Kosova, despite Serbian claims that Belgrade has withdrawn its forces, Reuters reported from the Serbian capital on 22 October. U.S. Ambassador to Macedonia Christopher Hill, who is Washington's chief envoy to Kosova, said "we're not satisfied with the level of compliance." An unidentified diplomat added that "we definitely still see a large [paramilitary] police presence and a Yugoslav army one." The pro-government daily "Vecernje novosti" wrote, however, that Belgrade's pledge to withdraw "has been fulfilled" but added that Serbian forces are still "securing settlements that have been bastions of Albanian terrorists. [The military] will continue to do so until the situation is completely stabilized." In Prishtina, shadow-state President Ibrahim Rugova said on 23 October that "the Serbian forces have not yet withdrawn from Kosova..., NATO should maintain its [threat of air strikes] and keep up pressure on the Belgrade government." PM[11] NATO FACES FOUR OPTIONSUnnamed NATO officials said in Brussels on 22 October that the Atlantic alliance wants a "coordination cell" in Macedonia for its Kosova aerial surveillance mission, which has the code-name "Eagle Eye." The officials added that NATO will await the outcome of the second round of the Macedonian elections on 1 November before starting talks with officials in Skopje. Unnamed diplomats told Reuters that the alliance faces four options as the 27 October deadline approaches for Milosevic to comply with the international community's demands. The options include military intervention, giving Milosevic an additional reprieve and a new deadline, maintaining the threat of air strikes but without a deadline, or removing the threat of air strikes entirely. The diplomats suggested that the third possibility--an open-ended threat--is the most likely. Top NATO officials are slated to discuss the options on 23 October. PM[12] UCK SAYS IT'S HOLDING SERBIAN JOURNALISTSA spokesman for the military police of the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK) told the VOA's Albanian Service by telephone on 22 October that the UCK is holding and treating "correctly" two missing journalists from Serbia's Tanjug news agency (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 October 1998). The spokesman added that the UCK is investigating whether the two were involved in recent alleged atrocities by Serbian forces in Kosova, including the killing of civilians. The guerrillas will hand the journalists over to the Red Cross if the two are innocent, the spokesman added. He did not say what the UCK will do if it finds them guilty. In Prishtina, international monitors and diplomats said that they are concerned that of late, the UCK has repeatedly provoked Serbian forces in order to trigger a Serbian crackdown and thereby increase the likelihood of NATO air strikes, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[13] DJUKANOVIC SAYS INDEPENDENCE NO SOLUTIONMontenegrin President Milo Djukanovic said in Podgorica on 22 October that Montenegro's interests are best served by remaining in the Yugoslav federation. He added that to declare independence would open the small mountainous republic to "numerous internal problems and the ambitions of its neighbors," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Djukanovic stressed, however, that Yugoslavia must break with the policies of President Slobodan Milosevic, which he regards as undemocratic and detrimental to Montenegro's political and economic interests. PM[14] MASS GRAVE OF SERBS FOUND IN BOSNIABosnian forensics experts said in Sarajevo on 22 October that a forensic team has begun exhuming a mass grave in the Sanski Most area of northwest Bosnia. The grave contains at least 70 bodies that the experts believe to be of Bosnian Serb soldiers and civilians killed during the 1995 offensive of Bosnian government and Croatian forces. Nearly three years after the end of the war, some 20,000 citizens of Bosnia-Herzegovina are still unaccounted for. PM[15] BOSNIAN POLICE FREE RFE/RL JOURNALISTBosnian police released Nikola Gurovic from custody in Sarajevo on 23 October. They had arrested him the previous day when he arrived at Sarajevo from abroad and charged him with staying abroad while on a business trip during the 1992-1995 war without repaying his travel advance to his employer, who was Radio-Television Sarajevo. RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported that many citizens of Bosnia- Herzegovina took advantage of wartime business trips to stay abroad, but police did not arrest them on their return after the war ended. The question remains why they arrested Gurovic but not others, the broadcast added. PM[16] ZAGREBACKA BANKA FIRES CLERK OVER TUDJMAN SCANDALRobert Horvat, a 32-year-old bank clerk and a decorated veteran of the 1991 war, lost his job on 21 October after police interrogated him about his role in the disclosure to the press of hidden bank accounts belonging to Ankica Tudjman, the wife of President Franjo Tudjman (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 October 1998). Horvat said that he had confirmed to journalists information that they received from bank clerk Ankica Lepej about Ankica Tudjman's accounts. Ankica Tudjman has officially declared herself to be a pensioner who heads a children's charity and whose only wealth is a car. Lepej's revelations indicate that she has well over $100, 000 in one account alone, in addition to 10 other accounts. The story has become a growing scandal in a country where the average monthly income is less than $500 and where the independent press has long reported that powerful people have enriched themselves at public expense. PM[17] ALBANIA'S LEKA BACKS UCKLeka Zogu, who is the pretender to the Albanian throne, told "Gazeta Shqiptare" of 22 October that he intends to financially support "all those Albanians who struggle for [a greater] Albania, including the UCK." He did not elaborate. Zogu added that the recent agreement on Kosova between Milosevic and U.S. envoy Richard Holbrooke was "a big misfortune because it makes no sense considering the [recent developments] in Kosova. This agreement...gives no solution to the demands of the Albanian and Serbian peoples." Zogu, who faces prison in Albania for having allegedly organized a coup attempt in July 1997, added that he will call on Albanians to vote against the Socialist-backed draft constitution in the referendum next month, "Albanian Daily News" reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 October 1998). FS[18] ALBANIAN PROSECUTORS TAKE TERRORISTS TO COURTA spokesman for the Prosecutor-General's Office told the "Albanian Daily News" of 23 October that his office has finished its investigation into the terrorist group called Revenge of Justice. Prosecutors will soon formally charge 11 suspects with bombing a supermarket owned by the VEFA pyramid-investment company in February 1996 as well as with the subsequent murder of a top police official and several armed robberies since 1991. Two of the suspects are the brothers Orik and Laert Shyti, sons of communist- era secret police chief and Deputy Interior Minister Hajredin Shyti. In 1996, the father served a prison term for the killing of pro- democracy demonstrators on 2 April 1991 in Shkoder. Both sons confessed to belonging to Revenge of Justice and said that their aim was to destroy the post- communist system, which took revenge on their father by jailing him. FS[19] ALBANIAN MEDIA CRITICIZE DEFENSE MINISTER FOR RENEWING GREEN CARD"Gazeta Shqiptare" on 22 October harshly criticized Luan Hajdaraga, who is currently in the U.S. on business and is seeking to renew the Green Card he won in the U.S. government's annual lottery in 1996. The newspaper asked, "What can you expect of a minister who is more anxious to emigrate than look after the defense of the country?" It added that he is sending the wrong message to thousands of ordinary Albanians: "Instead of giving hope to people, politicians like Hajdaraga are telling them that emigration remains the only way to build a new life." Unnamed officials of the Albanian Post Office told dpa that the number of Green Card applications for this year's lottery has considerably increased over past years. FS[20] UKRAINIAN, ROMANIAN, MOLDOVAN PRESIDENTS URGE RUSSIAN TROOP WITHDRAWALLeonid Kuchma, Emil Constantinescu, and Petru Lucinschi signed a document in Chisinau on 22 October urging Moscow to withdraw its troops from the Transdniester region, AP reported. In the document, the presidents expressed concern about the situation in the Transdniester region and appealed for a "peaceful and definitive solution." Kuchma said after the meeting that Ukraine will always support Moldova's territorial integrity. The document referred to the Transdniester as a region "inside the territory of an independent, unitary, and sovereign Moldova." The breakaway republic declared independence in 1990 and fought a five-month war with Moldova two years later. Transdniester leader Igor Smirnov is due to meet with Lucinschi and Kuchma on 23 October. PB[21] MOLDOVA WANTS PART OF CASPIAN OILMoldovan President Lucinschi said on 22 October that Chisinau wants to purchase Caspian Sea oil and invest in a Romanian refinery in an effort to reduce its dependence on Russia and Ukraine, AP reported. Lucinschi made his remarks after a meeting with Romanian President Constantinescu. Moldova, which has no oil refinery of its own and has accumulated an enormous debt with the Russian gas giant Gazprom, is interested in purchasing a stake in the Onesti refinery, located about 150 kilometers from the Moldovan-Romanian border. It is also building an oil terminal at the confluence of the Prut and Danube Rivers, which Ukraine claims is partly on its territory. This issue is to be discussed during the two-day meeting of the three presidents. PB[22] ROMANIAN PREMIER SAYS IMF MEETING CRUCIALRadu Vasile said on 22 October that upcoming talks with IMF and World Bank officials on securing loans are urgently needed to restore confidence in economic reforms, Reuters reported. Vasile said securing the loans is "more imperative now than in 1992 or 1994, especially because of the context...the [credit rating] downgrade we have been subject to." The same day, Finance Minister Traian Remes outlined the 1999 budget, which foresees no deficit providing there are no payments for mass layoffs. PB[23] PLESU HAILS BRITAIN'S CONTRIBUTION TO EU EXPANSIONRomanian Foreign Minister Andrei Plesu said British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook's visit to Bucharest showed Britain's commitment to the EU expansion process, Rompres reported on 22 October. Plesu said "Europe's security greatly depends on the security in this area, so our desire to access the Euro-Atlantic structures is legitimate and backed by the whole international community." Plesu and Cook also discussed economic and bilateral trade issues. PB[24] BLACK SEA ECONOMIC CONFERENCE OPENSThe eleven member countries of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC) agreed on 22 October to promote closer cooperation in the development of the Black Sea region at the opening conference in Sofia, dpa reported. Bulgarian Foreign Minister Nadejda Mihailova, who is ending her term as BSEC chair, said the organization "can only develop successfully in cooperation with the EU." She said the officials attending the meeting discussed ways to attract foreign investment in such fields as transport, tourism, and telecommunications. They also established the BSEC Bank, to be located in Salonika, Greece. Georgia will hold the BSEC chair for the next six months. The other member countries are Turkey, Romania, Albania, Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Moldova. PB[C] END NOTE[25] RECENT CRISIS WITHIN HDZ MAY POINT TO POST-TUDJMAN ERAby Andrej KrickovicOver the last few weeks, Croatian President Franjo Tudjman has faced the worst political crisis in the ruling Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) history. A series of events pitting the party's moderate and hard-line factions (the latter is often called the Herzegovinian lobby) against each other have culminated in the resignation of three of Tudjman's most trusted political allies--all moderates. As a result, the balance of power within the party and within Croatia has dramatically shifted to the right. In the short run, this threatens the Dayton peace process and Croatia's hopes for integration into Europe and the international community. In the long run, as the opposition begins to act more effectively, the shift may ultimately threaten Tudjman and the HDZ's hold on power. The two factions fundamentally disagree over a number of issues. The liberals are usually civilians and professionals who have a cosmopolitan outlook and support European integration and compliance with the Dayton agreement. The hard-liners have close ties to the military and to Croats in Herzegovina. They often support the idea of a separate Croatian state in Herzegovina, which has led to friction with the international community. A month ago, key HDZ moderates Hrvoje Sarinic, the head of the president's staff, and Franjo Greguric, the president's special envoy for Bosnia and Herzegovina, publicly accused hard- liners, led by Ivic Pasalic, the president's special adviser for domestic affairs, of using the Croatian Military Intelligence Service to spy on them and of orchestrating a smear campaign against them in the tabloid press. At the same time, Andrija Hebrang, the new minister of defense, also became the target of a smear campaign conducted by HDZ hard-liners opposed to his policies within the Ministry of Defense. This public airing of the HDZ's dirty laundry confronted Tudjman with a difficult choice: either support an investigation of the activities of the hard-liners or lose Sarinic, Greguric, and Hebrang. Only a perfunctory investigation was carried out, and last week Sarinic, Hebrang, and Greguric presented Tudjman with their resignations in protest. Tudjman had often sought to balance moderate and hard-line forces within the party in order to consolidate his grip on power and to take advantage of the extensive powers granted the president in the Croatian political system. In the end, however, Tudjman chose to side with the hard- liners who share his ambitious schemes for Bosnia-Herzegovina and who have displayed unwavering loyalty. The moderates are at least partly responsible for their own demise. As a group, they have been more concerned about their own personal interests and positions than about acting as a cohesive force. It is telling that none of the other moderates supported Sarinic, Greguric, and Hebrang in their struggle with Pasalic and the right wing. Nor did anyone do so when the three were forced out of the party hierarchy. Since their resignations, Tudjman has tried to stabilize the balance of power within the party by naming politicians like Nedeljko Mihanovic and Ivica Kostovic who remained neutral throughout the campaign to replace Hebrang and Sarinic, respectively. It is doubtful that these moves will have their intended effect. The departure of Hebrang, Sarinic, and Greguric has left the moderate wing without its most able politicians. The moderates are essentially in retreat, and the balance of power within the HDZ has decidedly shifted toward the right. Sarinic and Greguric were both personal friends of the president and his closest advisers. When Hebrang resigned as defense minister, he also resigned as Tudjman's head physician. Many credited him with helping Tudjman recover from cancer, and there was much speculation that he was being groomed as Tudjman's successor. He is regarded as an incorruptible and principled politician, a Croatian "Elliot Ness," the kind of man who could bring the wheeler-dealer activities at the Ministry of Defense under control. In losing Sarinic, Greguric and Hebrang, Tudjman has lost some of his most trusted and professional politicians and will increasingly have to rely on hard-liners. In the short term, this shift could lead to Zagreb's support for Croatian separatists in Herzegovina and during Croatia's increasing international isolation. The international community's High Representative for Bosnia- Herzegovina, Carlos Westendorp, and his deputy, Jacques Klein, expressed their concerns that the victory of hard-liners in the party will have negative effects on the Bosnian peace process and on Croatia's hopes of integrating into Europe any time soon. And in the long term, the HDZ's move to the right may threaten Tudjman's hold on power. The HDZ has increasingly relied on nationalist rhetoric and the nationalist vote to maintain power. While such an approach has been popular with Croat voters in Herzegovina and with the Diaspora, it has not had the same success at home. Hard-liners like Pasalic and the corrupt generals in the Ministry of Defense are unpopular with the electorate in Croatia. Nationalist rhetoric also seems to be losing its appeal in the face of increasing social and economic problems. Taking advantage of such weaknesses, an opposition coalition won an overwhelming majority in recent local elections in Dubrovnik. Some opposition parties have also agreed to form a coalition for the upcoming general elections (which must take place by the end of 1999). With the opposition strengthening and the HDZ sliding further to the right, Croatia may be poised to enter a post-Tudjman and post-HDZ era after the next general elections. The author is a free-lance journalist based in Zagreb, Croatia. 23-10-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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