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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 200, 98-10-15Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 200, 15 October 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] DEFEATED AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES CHALLENGE POLL OUTCOME...Speaking at a news conference in Baku on 14 October, Azerbaijan National Independence Party chairman Etibar Mamedov again rejected incumbent President Heidar Aliev's claims that he was reelected in the 11 October presidential poll with 75 percent of the vote, Reuters reported. Mamedov said that he polled approximately 35 percent of the vote and Aliev received no more than 60 percent, despite massive falsification, thus failing to achieve the required two-thirds majority. Two other defeated candidates, Nizami Suleymanov and Ashraf Mehdiev, also rejected Aliev's claim to have polled two-thirds of the vote, while a fourth, Communist candidate Firidun Hasanov, claimed second place. Suleymanov also disputed the official estimate of turnout at 77 percent, claiming that it does not exceed 50 percent, according to Turan. Only the fifth challenger, Khanguseyn Kazymly, has accepted Aliev's victory claim as valid and characterized the poll as democratic. LF[02] ...AS DOES OPPOSITIONIST BOYCOTTERFormer parliamentary speaker Rasul Guliev, one of five prominent opposition politicians who boycotted the elections, has condemned the election as undemocratic and the putative outcome as falsified, Turan reported on 14 October. He called on the international community to withdraw its support for Aliev. The five boycotters had issued a statement on 12 October condemning the way the elections were held, according to ANS Press. LF[03] ARMENIAN, RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTERS MEETDuring talks in Moscow on 14 October, Vartan Oskanian and Igor Ivanov stressed the "full convergence" of their respective positions and approaches to the Caucasus region, RFE/RL reported. The two ministers described their continuing adherence to the comprehensive Russian-Armenian treaty signed two years ago as a "firm basis" for "rapidly developing" bilateral ties. They agreed to continue efforts to foster the OSCE's transformation into the major pillar of European security in the 21st century. And they also called for renewed efforts by the OSCE to end the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, noting the organization's "current role in ensuring regional stability." Meeting with OSCE Secretary-General Gian- Carlo Aragona in Vienna last week, Oskanian again stressed that Armenia is not demanding independent status for Nagorno-Karabakh but expects Baku to demonstrate "flexibility" in the search for a "non-conventional" solution to the conflict, according to Noyan Tapan. LF[04] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT DEPUTY SPEAKER WITHDRAWS RESIGNATIONAlbert Bazeyan, one of the leaders of the majority Yerkrapah group within the Armenian parliament, withdrew his resignation on 14 October after the parliament refused to accept it, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Bazeyan had announced his decision to step down on 7 October following an acrimonious debate over opposition demands that the sale of the Yerevan Cognac factory and Armenia's two largest hotels to foreign investors be revoked. During that debate, opposition deputies threatened to demand a vote of no confidence in the government (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 October 1998). President Robert Kocharian and Defense Minister Vazgen Sargsian met with Yerkrapah deputies on 12 October and urged Bazeyan to withdraw his resignation. LF[05] KYRGYZSTAN TO JOIN WTOThe World Trade Organization on 14 October finally voted to invite Kyrgyzstan to join the organization, having agreed on the membership terms, ITAR-TASS and the "Financial Times" reported. Kyrgyzstan will become the first CIS state to be admitted. It must first ratify the accession protocols, under which it must open the country's markets to foreign goods and services. BP[06] KAZHEGELDIN ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY...Former Kazakh Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin on 14 October officially announced his intention to run for president, ITAR-TASS reported. In a formal statement, obtained by RFE/RL's Kazakh Service, Kazhegeldin says Kazakhstan needs change and that Nazarbayev and his "pocket parliament" are "oriented only toward maintaining the personal power of the current president." Kazhegeldin said the parliament's 8 October decision to extend the term in office of future presidents from five to seven years is "shameful," promising to overturn the decision if he is elected president. With regard to the assassination attempt against him the previous day (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 October 1998), Kazhegeldin said that he is not afraid and that under no circumstances will he withdraw his candidacy. BP[07] ...WHILE PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESMAN DENIES ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTKairat Sarybayev said information about an assassination attempt against Kazhegeldin was released to "raise his [Kazhegeldin's] popularity rating," Interfax reported on 14 October. Sarybayev said "the National Security Committee suggests the shots were fired in the air and Kazhegeldin remained unhurt." He commented that "the methods used by certain politicians for boosting their popularity ratings do not seem to have changed." BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[08] SOLANA SAYS SERBS NOT COMPLYINGNATO Secretary-General Javier Solana said in Brussels on 15 October that Yugoslav security forces have not complied with UN Security Council Resolution 1199's provision that they withdraw from the province, Reuters reported. "The information we have at this very moment, this morning, is that still compliance is not a reality," he said. Solana added that he will probably sign a document on verifying the latest agreement on Kosova with Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade within one day (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 October 1998). The NATO leader said he will tell Milosevic that "the solution [to the Kosova problem] is not in signing papers" and that the Yugoslav leader must live up to his commitments. An unnamed NATO official told AFP on 14 October that the alliance "will be looking for clear indications of actions, dismantling checkpoints, moving forces back to their barracks, lifting the heavy-handed repression from the backs of the civilian population." PM[09] KOSOVAR SHADOW-STATE CRITICIZES AGREEMENT...Veton Surroi, who is Kosova's leading journalist and a member of the Kosovar shadow- state's negotiating team with the Serbs, told AFP on 14 October that the Milosevic-Holbrooke agreement leaves Kosova a "Serbian camp [that is] under land and aerial surveillance." In Prishtina, shadow- state President Ibrahim Rugova said that some of the concessions U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke obtained from Milosevic will help "calm the situation," but he stressed that NATO ground troops should go to Kosova to help protect the ethnic Albanians from Serbian security forces, the "Financial Times" wrote on 15 October. Rugova and his negotiating team played only a marginal role in negotiating the Milosevic-Holbrooke pact, the "Sueddeutsche Zeitung" added. PM[10] ...AS DOES UCKBardhyl Mahmuti, who is a spokesman for the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), said on 14 October in Geneva that the agreement is unacceptable because it allows the Serbian authorities to determine the timetable and rules for any future elections. He said the Kosovars will decide themselves when and how to organize their political system. The spokesman also charged that Serbian forces continue to shell Kosovar villages and that "Milosevic is playing the same old game" of breaking his promises to foreigners. Mahmuti stressed that any agreement involving Kosova must have the approval of the UCK and that Holbrooke did not negotiate with the UCK. "The group of people [around Rugova]...with whom the Americans are negotiating are not legitimate for us. No deal will succeed if there is no agreement with the UCK." In Tirana, the daily "Albania," which is close to the Democratic Party, wrote that the Kosovars "are being treated like a defeated people." PM[11] SESELJ PRAISES PACTSerbian Deputy Prime Minister Vojislav Seselj hailed Milosevic for making only "minimal concessions" to Holbrooke and for "defending the territorial integrity and sovereignty" of Serbia, AFP reported from Belgrade on 14 October. In Podgorica, President Milo Djukanovic said that the possibility of military intervention against Yugoslavia remains and that Milosevic must keep the promises he has made, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. In Sarajevo, Zivko Radisic, who is the Serbian member of the Bosnian joint presidency, said that the Milosevic-Holbrooke agreement is essential for maintaining peace and stability in the region, Reuters reported. He stressed that any conflict in Kosova could seriously endanger the security of Europe as a whole. Radisic added that Kosova "was and remains the cradle of Serbian statehood and spirit." PM[12] JOURNALISTS DENOUNCE CRACKDOWNSlavko Curuvija, who is the editor in chief of the recently banned independent Belgrade "Dnevni telegraf," wrote Milosevic on 14 October to protest the shutdown of his newspaper (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 October 1998). He noted that "there were cases in Serbian history of confiscating newspapers and arresting journalists, but never one of sacking an editorial board. Nor were there cases, during the monarchy or under communist rule, of representatives of any ministry directly editing the news with the aid of the police." Curuvija appealed to Milosevic to overrule the Serbian authorities, who, he charged, think "they can make a modern Serbia with citizens who are deaf, dumb, and blind." That same day, police evicted Curuvija from his office. The editor told the "Financial Times" that "they are fascists." In New York, the Committee to Protect Journalists appealed to leaders of the international community to "offer the strongest possible support to [Serbia's] besieged journalists." PM[13] ARBOUR SAYS MILOSEVIC HAS NO AUTHORITY OVER COURTLouise Arbour, who is the chief prosecutor for the Hague-based war crimes tribunal, said at the UN in New York on 14 October that the Yugoslav president has no authority over where and how the tribunal's representatives may work: "The jurisdiction of the International Criminal Tribunal on the former Yugoslavia is not for Mr. Milosevic to decide, nor is it subject to negotiations between him and anyone else." She noted that the Serbian authorities have granted visas to three members of her staff that had been pending for several weeks. She added that she will soon request that a larger number of persons be granted visas to investigate possible atrocities in Kosova, Reuters reported. PM[14] TUDJMAN NAMES GENERAL TO HEAD MINISTRYCroatian President Franjo Tudjman on 14 October relieved General Pavao Miljavac of his military duties and appointed him defense minister. He succeeds Andrija Hebrang, who quit after losing a power struggle with mainly Herzegovinian hard-liners (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 October 1998). An unnamed Western diplomat told Reuters that Miljavac is a "nice guy...who will have the same enemies as Hebrang." Observers noted that Croatia is unlikely to win admission to Euro-Atlantic structures, especially to NATO's Partnership for Peace Program, if the Defense Ministry continues to operate like "a Herzegovinian-run state-within-a state." PM[15] SLOVENIAN DEFENSE MINISTER ASKED TO QUITPrime Minister Janez Drnovsek on 14 October asked Defense Minister Alojz Krapez to resign in the interests of preserving the governing coalition. The minister said he will make a decision by 16 October. Krapez is involved in a scandal because he illegally acquired the right to use an apartment owned by his ministry. The Slovenian People's Party, which is a small member of the governing coalition, has called on Krapez to resign over the affair. PM[16] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES LIMITED ACCESS FOR NATO PLANESA joint session of the parliament has approved the government's decision to allow NATO limited access to the country's air space in case of military action by the alliance in neighboring Yugoslavia, Reuters reported on 14 October. The vote, which was 244 to 160 with 82 abstentions, will allow NATO planes to fly over Romania in case of emergencies or "unforeseen situations." The opposition, led by the Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR), was almost united in opposing the decision. Former President and PDSR leader Ion Iliescu said "fortunately, the U.S. and Holbrooke's perseverance has helped us preserve our dignity." PB[17] ROMANIAN HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST KILLEDStefan Itoafa, an attorney and human rights activist, has been murdered in Constanza, AFP reported on 14 October. Itoafa was stabbed and his throat cut. No other details are available at present. PB[18] MOLDOVA IN LINE FOR IMF FUNDSMark Horton, the IMF representative in Chisinau, said on 14 October that Moldova has a good chance of receiving aid from the fund by the end of this year, Infotag reported. Horton said such a loan would be dependent upon "progress in cutting budgetary expenditures" and steps toward privatizing the energy sector. The IMF is holding a $28 million loan for Moldova while the World Bank has frozen a $35 million loan. The IMF also advised the Moldovan National Bank to soften its intervention on the foreign exchange market in an effort to support the leu, which has fallen rapidly in the past few days. PB[19] BULGARIA AGREES TO KEEP FINANCIAL SYSTEM OPENThe IMF on 14 October announced that Bulgaria has agreed to adhere to the fund's Article 4, an RFE/RL correspondent in Washington reported. Bulgaria is the 146th country to approve Article 4, which prohibits it from discriminating against a foreign currency or imposing restrictions on payments and transfers involving international transactions. This is considered a major step toward integrating into the global economy. PB[C] END NOTE[20] IMF, UKRAINIAN LEADERS DISCUSS REFORMSby Lily HydeSince Ukraine's recent agreement on a reform program with the IMF, the country has been hit by new economic problems. Some Kyiv-based international financial experts say this is complicating Ukraine's efforts to fulfill the program's aims. A Ukrainian delegation, including Prime Minister Valeriy Pustovoytenko, Finance Minister Ihor Mityukov, and National Bank Governor Viktor Yushchenko, met with IMF officials in Washington recently. They discussed what must be done to obtain further tranches of a $2.2 billion loan that are attached to the reform program. An outline of the program is posted on the IMF's web site. It includes steps to ensure progress in stabilization, to create a smaller and more efficient government, to accelerate deregulation and privatization, and to reform the financial sector. Other measures are restructuring key economic sectors, increasing competition, and improving protections for the most vulnerable members of society. Aleksei Sekarev, an economic adviser with the Ukrainian- European Policy and Legal Advice Center, calls it "a very ambitious program for Ukraine." His research center is funded by the EU. Sekarev says that it will be "very difficult for Ukraine to fulfill many of the conditions." But he says he believes that there is "a readiness on the part of the IMF" to be realistic about how many of the conditions can be met. Ukraine's program for economic revival underwent drastic modification even as it was supposed to be getting off the ground. By the time the government and the IMF board of directors reached a final agreement on the loan on 4 September, the Russian financial crisis had hit and many of the financial benchmarks written into original plans had become unrealistic. In a letter to the IMF, the government indicated it would not be able to replenish the Ukrainian National Bank's depleted reserves as earlier promised. The letter also mentioned a new exchange rate band of 2.5-3.5 hryvna to the dollar, effectively devaluing the national currency. The government also introduced a new set of financial benchmarks, including ones on gross domestic product, consumer price inflation, the state budget deficit, money supply, and foreign currency reserves. Since then, the economic situation has deteriorated further. At the end of September, the National Bank's foreign reserves stood at $1.08 billion, some $250 million short of the target. Patricia Bartholomew, an economist at the Kyiv office of Germany's Commerzbank, says she expects more problems ahead. "Ukraine needs to develop a competitive economy, but there has been trouble getting legislation through the parliament." She expresses the view that the situation in Ukraine will "continue to frustrate the IMF." The parliament has already postponed discussion of the budget until 15 October and is unlikely to approve it. Since July, Ukraine has issued seemingly inconsistent presidential and cabinet decrees, some in line with goals agreed with the IMF, some taking a side-ways step, and some directly in opposition. The clear conflict is between measures toward deregulation and steps that allow for government intervention in the economy, such as protecting Ukrainian-produced goods, writing off tax arrears, and expanding the list of excise exemptions on local goods. Sekarev of the EU-funded research center speculates that the IMF may be willing to overlook measures that contradict the spirit of IMF policy as long as they do not contradict agreed conditions and as long as most legislation remains consistent with agreed reforms. IMF officials say that production goals and other targets and deadlines in the government's memorandum to the IMF are flexible. Patrick Lenain, the IMF's top official in Kyiv, says "we know we have to remain flexible and we have to adjust". He said IMF officials know that "a lot is not going to happen, or it will happen faster, or slower" than planned and new measures may be necessary. Lenain went on to say that if criteria are not complied with, IMF officials will consider waivers. While quarterly reviews will look at long-term trends, the IMF will also review Ukraine's progress before deciding to release each monthly tranche of the loan. The frequency may be an indicator that the IMF has doubts about Ukraine's ability to keep its promises. Only Russia has disbursements with the same frequency; other IMF country loans are regulated quarterly or even half-yearly. The IMF money is critical to balancing Ukraine's budget, servicing high- interest government debts, paying for imports, and maintaining the hryvna as a viable currency. Moreover, loans from the World Bank are conditioned on the government keeping to the IMF program, and private lenders and investors rely heavily on the IMF as an indicator of Ukraine's economic prospects. Commerzbank's Bartholomew expresses the view that "the IMF is in a very difficult position." She says "they do not want to seem too strict, they are trying to get as much reform through as possible without pushing it too far and causing a backlash against reform. But," she says, "they also don't want to be seen as a pushover." The author is an RFE/RL correspondent based in Kyiv. 15-10-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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