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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 65, 98-04-03Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 65, 3 April 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] DEMIRCHYAN REJECTS PRESIDENTIAL POLL RESULTSDefeated Armenian presidential candidate Karen Demirchyan has claimed that the 30 March runoff poll was marred by "numerous instances of fraud, falsification, intimidation, and vote-buying," RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 2 April. In a statement released by the official news agency Armenpress, Demirchyan said the preliminary final results released by the Central Electoral Commission do not reflect the real outcome of the vote. According to those data, Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan received 59.48 percent of the vote and Demirchyan 40.52 percent. Demirchyan said the poll results had dealt a blow to people's faith in democracy, but he cautioned against mass protests, which, he said, could lead to a split in society. He also affirmed his intention to continue his political activities. LF[02] INTERNATIONAL REACTION TO KOCHARYAN'S ELECTIONU.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin issued a statement on 1 April congratulating Kocharyan on his election as president and wishing him success in forming a new government, implementing democratic reforms, and working for a political solution of the Karabakh conflict. The following day, French President Jacques Chirac and his Georgian counterpart, Eduard Shevardnadze, likewise extended congratulations, Yerevan News Agency reported. A spokeswoman for the French Foreign Ministry said Paris hopes the new Armenian leadership will do its utmost to resolve the Karabakh conflict under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group, whose co- chairmen are from France, Russia and the U.S Acting Russian Minister for CIS Affairs Anatolii Adamishin remarked that Moscow "found a common language" with Kocharyan during the latter's tenure as premier and hopes to do the same while he is president, Noyan Tapan reported. LF[03] CHANGES UNLIKELY IN ARMENIAN FOREIGN POLICYArmenian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Manasaryan has said there will be no substantive changes in Armenia's foreign policy following Kocharyan's election as president, Interfax reported on 1 April. Manasaryan said that "everything will remain in force" and that Armenia will continue to work for "neighborly relations" with the countries of the region. He predicted that Kocharyan will take a "principled and consistent" line on the Karabakh conflict, rather than a tough one. Acting Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian told "Hayots ashkhar" on 2 April that the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group will visit the region later this month to "clarify the conflict parties' positions in the negotiations." LF[04] SOUTH OSSETIAN PRESIDENT ASSESSES PEACE PROCESSIn his annual address to the parliament of the unrecognized Republic of South Ossetia, Lyudvig Chibirov said that future relations between the republic and the central Georgian government should be mutually beneficial and based on the principle of equality, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 2 April. Chibirov repeated his commitment to reaching an agreement with Tbilisi of which Russia and international organizations would act as guarantors. At the same time, he warned that he will defend his republic's sovereignty and not give in to pressure. Chibirov said he hopes to meet personally again this year with Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze to discuss the reconciliation process. He also said that the new leadership of North Ossetia shares his commitment to intensifying economic integration between North and South Ossetia. LFREGIONAL AFFAIRS [05] CIS SUMMIT MAY BE POSTPONED.Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev hinted on 2 April that the CIS summit tentatively scheduled for 29 April may be postponed until the end of next month, Interfax reported. Speaking in Akmola, Nazarbaev said he has proposed that the presidents of the four member states of the CIS Customs Union (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, and Russia) meet in Moscow on 20 April to discuss a draft document on creating a common economic space. He also advocated adopting his program for greater integration within the CIS. Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev has said he will be unable to attend the April CIS summit because of a scheduled trip to China. LF[06] WAY PAVED FOR TAJIKISTAN'S ENTRY TO CIS CUSTOMS UNION.Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov met with Nigmatjon Isingarin, the chairman of the CIS Customs Union, in Dushanbe on 2 April to discuss Tajikistan's entry to the union, ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported. An official decision on Tajik entry could be made at the next meeting of the presidents of the member states, Isingarin noted. But he added that it could take some 18 months before Tajikistan is finally admitted to the union. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] ALBRIGHT WARNS OF BALKAN 'ROAD BACK TO HELL'U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said in Washington on 2 April that "today, Kosovo is caught up in a vicious cycle. First, there is Serb repression. Then, [Albanian] extremists wage hit-and-run attacks against Serb authorities. Then, Serb special police strike back with summary executions, house demolitions and helicopter gunship attacks. For the Balkans, this escalating violence is the road back to Hell. Unless stopped, tensions will flow out of control. The result could be a full-fledged civil war, putting at risk the peace in Bosnia and spreading conflict like an infectious disease to neighboring states." PM[08] MILOSEVIC WANTS REFERENDUM ON KOSOVOYugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic sent a letter to Serbian leaders on 2 April asking them to call a referendum on the question: "Do you accept the participation of foreign representatives in the resolution of the problems in Kosovo?" The letter made it clear that Milosevic wants a demonstration of popular support for his policies in Kosovo, including his refusal to allow foreign involvement in what he regards as an internal affair of Serbia. He charged that "those who want to dictate to the entire world how it should live and even think have an extremely negative and aggressive stand toward our determined position to resolve our problems as a sovereign state." Milosevic added that over the past few days, "we have heard how [the unnamed foreigners]...even love us and are sorry that the people will be subject to pressures." PM[09] PARLIAMENT TO DISCUSS REFERENDUM...The Serbian parliament will meet on 6 April to discuss Milosevic's proposal, Serbian news agencies reported on 2 April. If the legislature agrees with Milosevic, as seems most likely, the referendum could be held as early as May or as late as August, Tanjug added. Serbian President Milan Milutinovic praised Milosevic's proposal, as did Deputy Prime Minister Vojislav Seselj. But in Pristina, Fehmi Agani and other leading Kosovar spokesmen dismissed the idea as "a cynical propaganda exercise" and an effort to buy time. The Kosovar leaders added that they will call for a boycott of the referendum. PM[10] ...WHILE SOLANA BLASTS PROPOSALNATO Secretary- General Javier Solana said in Sofia on 3 April: "my reaction to [Milosevic's referendum] proposal is very negative. This is a maneuver to waste time and increase a risk of conflict. We think this is just another mistake by President Milosevic." PM[11] WHAT IS GOING ON IN DRENICA?Serbian paramilitary police recently brought heavy guns into the area near Kosovar villages in the Drenica region, where the Serbs began the current crackdown on 28 February, the satellite television station "Euro News" reported on 3 April. The broadcast quoted local Kosovars as saying that no international aid has reached Drenica this month. The Kosovars added that Serbian police roadblocks prevent food from reaching the region and that local people have no alternative but to smuggle food through Serbian lines at night. PM[12] NANO CALLS FOR ECONOMIC EMBARGO ON BELGRADEAlbanian Prime Minister Fatos Nano said in Paris on 3 April that "the current pressure is not enough to bend Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. A financial embargo, including a freeze of Serb assets abroad, should be added." Nano added that Kosovo should be made an autonomous republic within Yugoslavia. He rejected the idea of a greater Albania and called for a dialogue mediated by the U.S., the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the EU. Nano noted that OSCE monitors are stationed on Albania's frontier with Yugoslavia and that arms "smuggling is completely blocked, as far as it can ever be in a mountainous area." PM[13] NATO MAKES SHOW OF FORCE IN PALEMore than 400 French and Italian troops backed by 15 tanks, 80 other military vehicles, and several helicopters occupied the Bosnian Serb hard- liners' stronghold of Pale on 2 April. SFOR spokesmen said that the operation was a routine inspection to monitor illegal weapons and that nothing was seized. Local and foreign observers suggested that the real aim of the mission was to intimidate ultranationalist leader and indicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic, who lives in Pale. Karadzic's security forces are no longer as formidable as they were before the Bosnian Serb government moved from Pale to Banja Luka, "Nasa Borba" reported on 3 April. PM[14] "DE-USTASHIZATION" IN CROATIA?The opposition political party Istrian Democratic League will soon introduce a bill aimed at banning the display of portraits, emblems and symbols associated with the fascist Ustasha movement and its wartime Axis- puppet state. The bill would also forbid political parties and "other activities" portraying that state in a positive light, "Slobodna Dalmacija" wrote on 3 April. The draft law calls for establishing a 15-member "De- Ustashization Commission" in the parliament. The Split daily added that the bill is likely to evoke negative comments from most leading politicians because they fear that a public discussion of the Ustasha issue could lead to unnecessary negative publicity for Croatia. Anto Djapic, the leader of the small pro- Ustasha Croatian Party of [Historical] Rights, told "Vjesnik" of 3 April that the real purpose of the bill is to ban his party. PM[15] ALBANIAN OPPOSITION HOLDS MEMORIAL RALLYSeveral thousand opposition supporters took part in a rally in Shkoder on 2 April to mark the seventh anniversary of the killing of four anti-communist protesters by police in that city, "Rilindja Demokratike" reported. The four were protesting the election victory of the communist Party of Labor of Albania in the country's first multiparty elections since World War II. The 1991 protests sparked an uprising that forced the government to resign and call new elections the following year. FS[16] FORMER INTERIOR MINISTER FLEES ALBANIABelul Celo, who was interior minister from March to July 1997 interim government, left Albania after being summoned to the Military Prosecutor's Office. Celo had been asked to testify about the role of the elite Presidential Guard during the unrest in March 1997, "Republika" reported on 3 April. Celo may be held responsible for atrocities that the Presidential Guard committed during the unrest. The Socialist Party daily "Zeri i Popullit," however, claimed on 2 April that Celo is hiding, possibly in Greece, from former Guard members who threatened him after he gave testimony on the unrest to the prosecutor's office. FS[17] VASILE BEGINS TALKS ON FORMING GOVERNMENTRomanian Prime Minister-designate Radu Vasile began talks with coalition parties on forming a new government on 2 April. Under the constitution, Vasile has 10 days in which to submit a government to the parliament for approval. Vasile said after being confirmed as premier- designate that he will govern with "speed and authority." He also pledged that his government will differ from the cabinet of Victor Ciorbea, whom Vasile criticized in an interview with "Libertatea" for his "incompetence and laxness." Opposition leader and former President Ion Iliescu said the "causes of the political and economic crisis will persist" as long as the current coalition is in power, regardless of who is prime minister. PB[18] CONSTANTINESCU SAYS NATO EXPANSION COSTS WORTHWHILERomanian President Emil Constantinescu told visiting NATO Secretary-General Solana that the price of expanding the alliance into Eastern Europe is worth paying, AFP reported on 2 April. Constantinescu said the costs for Western countries are often overestimated, and that Bucharest would pay much more on defense if it were not in NATO. Solana said that the political crisis Romania is currently experiencing is common in Europe and should not be dramatized. PB[19] BULGARIA WANTS TO BE LESS DEPENDENT ON RUSSIAN GASBulgarian Deputy Premier Yevgeni Bakardjiev has said Sofia will sign a deal with Royal Dutch Shell International that will help break the Russian monopoly on gas supplies to Bulgaria, AFP reported on 2 April. Bakardjiev, who was returning from meetings with Shell in Holland, said that Sofia will own a section of a pipeline that is to run from Turkmenistan to Germany and transits Bulgaria. The pipeline will take four years to build. Bulgaria imported some 6.5 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia last year and has encountered difficulties making payments to Moscow on time. PB[20] BULGARIAN FOREIGN MINISTER PLEDGES ADJUSTMENTS FOR NATONadezhda Mihailova said on 2 April that Bulgaria will do everything NATO asks in order to prepare for membership in the alliance. Mihailova said she assured visiting NATO Secretary-General Solana that the government, parliament, and president will fully cooperate so that the country is ready for the next round of NATO expansion. Solana, who is on a two-day visit to Sofia, said that NATO's "door is open" for all states in a second round of enlargement. PB[C] END NOTE[21] YELTSIN AVOIDS NAMING CHERNOMYRDIN AS SUCCESSORby Floriana FossatoRussian President Boris Yeltsin this week repeated that he will not seek a third term in office in the next presidential election. But he flatly refused to confirm ousted Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin as his chosen successor. "You speak about succession when it concerns royalty. Here the people make the choice," Yeltsin said in his first official reaction since Chernomyrdin announced in a television interview on 28 March that he plans to run in that election. Chernomyrdin had said he "understood" he would have Yeltsin's support if he ran for the presidency, but he admitted that the president had not clearly designated him as a successor. Yeltsin, for his part, said only that Chernomyrdin's plans "do not fall outside the general practice of our policy or the president's thoughts." Yeltsin, 67, has made contradictory statements about his own plans for the next presidential elections. In recent months, he has repeatedly said he does not plan to run. But most Russian politicians and observers have said they find it hard to believe that Yeltsin would consider leaving his grip on power. However, Yeltsin said there was "something not quite right" with Chernomyrdin's declaration that he himself would stand. Nikolai Petrov, an analyst at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, told RFE/RL that Yeltsin's statement was meant to make clear that, in the president's view, Chernomyrdin "has been removed as he was a threat to Yeltsin." The president, Petrov argues, may still "change the tone of his statements and run himself." Chernomyrdin's best chance now will be to act as the chief presidential campaigner on Yeltsin's behalf, as presidential aides Oleg Soskovets and Sergei Filatov have done in the past, according to Petrov. However, other observers interpret Yeltsin's moves since last week as a sign that the president has given Chernomyrdin the chance to prove he would be a worthy candidate of the so-called party of power, provided that he makes clear he can find support for his candidacy. Immediately after Chernomyrdin was fired, many Russian politicians and analysts were quick to write him off, saying he lacks charisma. They added that powerful Moscow and regional officials who had joined Chernomyrdin's political movement, Our Home is Russia, would be quick to withdraw their support after Chernomyrdin's ouster. But, Chernomyrdin immediately made it clear that he will soon launch his presidential candidacy--with or without Yeltsin's blessing. At a meeting of Our Home Is Russia two days after being fired, Chernomyrdin said that "for many years, you have known me as Russia's Number 2, after the president. Believe me, that was not an easy part to play. But now, nobody can hold me back. From now on my style will be uninhibited and it will be that way as long as I stay healthy." Chernomyrdin's statement appears to be a direct response to warnings made after his ousting by businessman Boris Berezovskii. "If Chernomyrdin demonstrates will and strength, he will have a lot of supporters," Berezovskii said. "He has an opportunity to fully use his potential popularity in this country and abroad.... But, then, he has to bear in mind that power is not given, it is taken." Following the television interview in which Chernomyrdin announced his intention to run, Berezovskii seemed to give his endorsement, saying that "Chernomyrdin has changed from being a premier to being a genuinely powerful political leader." Chernomyrdin will need as much qualified support as possible from business circles willing to bankroll his campaign and improve his image through the media assets they control. A nationwide poll taken by the Public Opinion Foundation last week showed Chernomyrdin with 6 percent support in a hypothetical presidential election. Chernomyrdin's "natural" base of support includes Gazprom, the gas giant that he helped create and led until his appointment to the cabinet in December 1992, as well as other Soviet-era industrial complexes. Some analysts say that base would guarantee him the financial funding and media coverage needed to campaign effectively. Others remark, however, that the Gazprom leadership is likely to consider several factors, including political developments surrounding the formation of the new cabinet and Chernomyrdin's standing in opinion polls, before making a final decision. And if Gazprom gives its support, the company's growing media arm--Gazprom Media Holding-- may also come out in support of Chernomyrdin. Meanwhile, Andrei Vavilov, who was recently appointed as financial adviser to Gazprom, said he thinks Chernomyrdin will likely have the support of the company's leadership. "I don't decide for Gazprom, but it seems to me that the leadership supports Chernomyrdin," said Vavilov. He added that Chernomyrdin may return to hold an unspecified post in the leadership of the company. Stephen O' Sullivan, an analyst at MC Securities in London, told Reuters that he doubts Gazprom will say anything significant in public until the company has carefully analyzed the situation--to assess which way the political wind is blowing. The next presidential election is scheduled for June 2000. Looking like a contender for more than two years could prove to be one Chernomyrdin's main obstacles to winning the election, assuming, that is, that Yeltsin's health does not falter dramatically. As for the incumbent president, he enigmatically said on 1 April said that "some start sooner, some later." The author is a Moscow-based RFE/RL correspondent. 03-04-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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