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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 63, 98-04-01Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 63, 1 April 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] KOCHARYAN APPEARS SET TO BECOME ARMENIAN PRESIDENTWith almost 50 percent of the ballots counted, acting President and Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan is leading Soviet-era communist party chief Karen Demirchyan with 62 percent to 38 percent, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported on 31 March. Most election observers, including those from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, have not reported any cases of large-scale voting fraud. Demirchyan's supporters claimed on 31 March that Kocharyan's organization has engaged in electoral fraud, Interfax reported. Kocharyan's spokesman has responded that the charges are false and an attempt to provide an excuse if Demirchyan loses, as now seems likely. PG[02] SHEVARDNADZE SAYS CIS MUST RECOGNIZE GEORGIAN TERRITORIAL INTEGRITYIn his weekly radio address on 30 March, President Eduard Shevardnadze said he plans to demand that CIS leaders acknowledge their "respect for and recognition of Georgia's territorial integrity." He said he will make this demand because of the statements of some CIS leaders about Abkhazia. The Georgian leader added that his government will never annul the autonomy of Adjaria. And he said he has called on law enforcement organizations to protect him not only from terrorist attacks but also from officials in the Georgian government itself, ITAR-TASS reported.[03] RUSSIA READY TO COMPROMISE ON STATUS OF CASPIANSpeaking in Baku on 30 March, Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Boris Pastukhov said Moscow is prepared for a compromise on the legal status of the Caspian Sea, Reuters reported. The Russian government would recognize the rights of littoral states to coastal zones but would continue to insist that the Caspian be treated as a single system "from the point of view of shipping and ecology." Meanwhile, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have resumed their discussions on the status of the Caspian, ITAR-TASS reported on 30 March. The two countries began the current round of discussions in Ashgabat a month ago and are continuing those talks in Baku. PG[04] MORE CAPTIVES RELEASED IN TAJIKISTANArmed groups that captured more than 100 government soldiers last week have freed all but 20, RFE/RL correspondents reported on 30 March. Those groups continue to demand that the government abide by an agreement whereby all armed forces are to be removed from the area. Officials from the government, the National Reconciliation Commission, and the UN observer mission to Tajikistan oversaw the release of the government soldiers. BP[05] RUSSIAN OFFICIALS IN TAJIKISTANAndrei Kokoshin, secretary of Russia's Security Council, and Nikolai Bordyuzha, head of the Federal Border Service, were in Dushanbe on 30 March to meet with Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov, ITAR-TASS reported. Rakhmonov said he favors a continued Russian presence along the Tajik border with Afghanistan. But the number of Russian border guards in Tajikistan has been cut to just over 14,000 since the Tajik peace accord was signed in June 1997. Guards along the border are primarily occupied with apprehending drug smugglers. Bordyuzha noted that since the beginning of 1998, border guards have seized 500 kilograms of narcotics, 60 kilograms of which was pure heroin. BP[06] AKAYEV APPOINTS HEAD OF PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATIONKyrgyz President Askar Akayev on 30 March appointed Omar Sultanov, until now ambassador to Germany, as head of the presidential administration, RFE/RL correspondents reported. Sultanov replaces Kubanychbek Jumaliev, who was recently appointed prime minister. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] RUSSIA, CHINA BLOCK YUGOSLAV ARMS EMBARGOU.S. and U.K.diplomats said at the UN in New York on 30 March that Russia remains opposed to a British-sponsored resolution that would reimpose an arms embargo on President Slobodan Milosevic's federal Yugoslavia. U.S. Ambassador Bill Richardson added that he is optimistic that a solution can be found: "I believe that...we are close to imposing an arms embargo on Serbia [on 31 March}. We are close to language that would accommodate both sides." Russia is Yugoslavia's main foreign arms supplier and may have recently concluded a major arms deal with Belgrade (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 March 1998). Beijing also opposes the embargo or any international involvement in the Kosovo question, presumably because it perceives the problematic Serbia-Kosovo relationship to be similar to its own relations with Tibet. PM[08] RUSSIA DENIES KOSOVO THREATSpeaking at the UN in New York on 30 March, Russian Deputy Representative Yurii Fedotov said that agreement on a Security Council resolution remains a long way off. "In particular, we believe it is unfair to determine the situation in that part of the world as constituting a threat to international peace and security. It is simply not true.... [There are] much more threatening situations and hot spots in the world which represent a real threat." He added that there is currently no fighting in Kosovo and no flow of refugees. Fedotov stressed that Russia wants the resolution to more strongly condemn "support of terrorism and [providing] illegal supplies of weapons" as well as the "arming and training of terrorists." PM[09] GELBARD SAYS SERBS HELPED UCKU.S. special envoy Robert Gelbard said the Serbian authorities are themselves to blame for the publicity that the international media have recently given to the shadowy Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK), the "Frankfurter Allgemeine" wrote on 31 March. Gelbard stressed that Serbian strategy and tactics in the province have helped draw international attention to the UCK, which was little known until recently. The Serbian authorities recently blamed several foreign radio and television stations, as well as Yugoslav stations that rebroadcast the foreign programs, for misrepresenting events in Kosovo (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 30 March 1998). A spokesman for Deutsche Welle, which was among the stations that Belgrade criticized, dismissed the charges and added that the Yugoslav authorities have resorted to "language from the Cold War" in making their accusations, "Danas" reported. PM[10] SERBIAN BORDER GUARDS KILL ALBANIAN CITIZENYugoslav border guards near Gorozup shot dead a man from the northern Albanian village of Pogaj on 29 March. The man had already crossed the border into Albania after leaving Prizren, in Kosovo, with three other Albanians, "Koha Jone" reported. Elsewhere, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on 30 March opened a field office in the crime- ridden northern Albanian city of Bajram Curri, close to that part of Kosovo where Serbian paramilitary police launched a crackdown on 24 March. FS[11] SESELJ AGAINST FOREIGN ROLE IN KOSOVOThe Serbian Radical Party of Deputy Prime Minister Vojislav Seselj said in a statement on 30 March that it is opposes any foreign mediation in the Kosovo dispute, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Serbian capital (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 March 1998). Also in Belgrade, Ljubisa Ristic, the head of the Yugoslav parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, told visiting French legislators that "we will strongly oppose anyone, inside and outside [the country], who tries to provoke war in this Serbian province." PM[12] CROATIA, BOSNIA SET UP COOPERATION COUNCILCroatian Foreign Minister Mate Granic and his Bosnian counterpart, Jadranko Prlic, an ethnic Croat, signed an agreement in Zagreb on 30 March to institutionalize frequent, regular contacts between leaders of the two countries. Under the accord, the Croatian president and the members of the Bosnian joint presidency will meet at least twice a year. Granic and Prlic praised the agreement, but Mirza Hajric, who is Muslim presidency member Alija Izetbegovic's chief adviser, said it lacks substance, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Sarajevo. PM[13] UNIFIED RAILROAD FOR BOSNIABosnian Serb Prime Minister Milorad Dodik and his federal counterpart, Edhem Bicakcic, agreed in Doboj on 30 March to form a joint corporation that will restore a unified rail system to all of Bosnia and Herzegovina. A final agreement will be signed later this week. The prime ministers said they hope to reach similar agreements on restoring the power grid and telecommunications systems in the near future. PM[14] OSCE SAYS BOSNIAN PARTIES MUST HAVE PROGRAMSA spokesman for the OSCE, which will carry out the Bosnian general elections slated for 12-13 September, said in Sarajevo that all parties and independent candidates participating in the vote must submit in advance a program that states the party's or candidate's views on key issues. Such topics include refugee return, economic reconstruction, minority rights, and social issues. Parties must pay a deposit of $550, and independent candidates half that amount. Deposits will be returned to parties or candidates who are successful in the poll. Post-communist elections in the former Yugoslavia have frequently been plagued by a plethora of tiny parties that have no clear political profile and little chance of winning. PM[15] RAIL STRIKE HITS CROATIAMany of the 8,000 employees of Croatian Railroads staged a two-hour warning strike on 31 March all across the country. Only international trains and trains used by the military were not affected. The workers want a 20 percent increase in their wages, which currently average about $300 per month. Management says it cannot offer more than 4.6 percent. Croatia has been hit by a series of strikes since the beginning of the year, when the government introduced a 22 percent value-added tax. PM[16] ITALY WANTS CHANGE IN ALBANIAN WEU MISSIONUnnamed diplomats told AFP in Brussels on 30 March that the Italian government wants to change the mandate of the Western European Union (WEU) police mission in Albania when it runs out in mid-April. Italy wants a larger role for its police in the 60-strong force and any renewal of the mandate to be limited to two months. Other WEU members dismissed the proposal. Unnamed non-Italian WEU police said in Tirana that they are not satisfied with the Italians' performance in putting a stop to smuggling. FS[17] ROMANIAN PRIME MINISTER RESIGNSIn a bitter speech broadcast live on radio and television on 30 March, Prime Minister Victor Ciorbea announced his resignation both as premier and mayor of Bucharest. He accused his former political partners of indulging in "diversionsim" and said he is convinced that their "so-called victory" will prove temporary and that "history" will judge them harshly. Ciorbea also noted that he had tried to be " a different type of premier, maybe ahead of history" and that the new cabinet will inherit the basis for a reform program that can be continued. Ciorbea thanked only his own colleagues in the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic and the ministers representing the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania for their cooperation. He made no mention of the other parties that had made up the coalition. MS[18] CONSTANTINESCU NAMES INTERIM PREMIERPresident Emil Constantinescu, who spoke on radio and television immediately after Ciorbea, refrained from thanking the former premier for his achievements in that capacity. Constantinescu said he has appointed Interior Minister Gavril Dejeu as interim premier until consultations on forming a new cabinet are concluded. He added he will announce a new head of government on 2 April following talks with the parties represented in the outgoing coalition and with the parliamentary opposition parties. Observers say the fact that Ciorbea is not to continue as premier until his successor is appointed demonstrates the rift between the two men. Under the constitution, the new premier has 10 days following his appointment to secure a vote of confidence for his cabinet in the parliament. MS[19] U.S., ROMANIA SIGN ANTI-WEAPONS ACCORDOutgoing Romanian Defense Minister Constantin Dudu Ionescu and U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen, meeting in Washington on 30 March, signed an accord for the prevention of the proliferation of chemical, biological, and nuclear arms, an RFE/RL correspondent in Washington reported. Under the accord, which is the first of its kind that the U.S. has signed with an Eastern European country, Washington is to provide expertise, equipment, and training to Romanian border control guards to help detect such weapons and hinder their delivery from East European countries to terrorists and rogue states. Cohen said Romania remains " a strong candidate for NATO membership" if reforms are pursued. He declined, however, to say when it might be invited to join the alliance. MS[20] ELECTION COMMISSION ANNOUNCES MAKEUP OF NEW MOLDOVAN LEGISLATURE...The Central Electoral Commission on 29 March announced that the Party of Moldovan Communists has 40 seats in the legislature elected on 22 March. The Democratic Convention of Romania has 26 mandates, the For a Democratic and Prosperous Moldova Bloc (PMDP) 24, and the Party of Democratic Forces 11 mandates. The figures reflect calculations eliminating parties that failed to pass the 4 percent threshold and redistributing the votes cast for those formations among the parties that passed the threshold, BASA press reported on 30 March. MS[21] ...WHILE COMPOSITION OF COALITION STILL UNCERTAINPresident Petru Lucinschi said in an interview with Moldovan state radio on 30 March that there are "two options" for forming a future majority coalition in the legislature and that he would accept either: a government based on an alliance between the Communists and the PMDP or one composed of the PMDP, the Democratic Convention of Moldova, and the Party of Democratic Forces. Lucinschi said any new government will have to continue pursuing market reforms and privatization and a foreign policy based on neutrality and good-neighborly relations. PMDP leader Dumitru Diacov said after meeting Lucinschi that an alliance with the Communists is possible if they make an "unambiguous pledge" to support reform. Communist leader Vladimir Voronin said his party does not want to be in the opposition, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported.[22] BULGARIAN FOREIGN MINISTER CONTRADICTED BY ACADEMY REPORTNadezhda Mihailova told the 30 March meeting of foreign ministers from the EU and the 11 candidates seeking membership that her country has achieved "financial stabilization" and made "sufficient progress" to fulfill the "criteria for membership" by the year 2001, Reuters reported. But a report released in Sofia by the Academy of Sciences' Economic Institute the same day predicts that Bulgaria will be unable to meet economic conditions for EU membership before 2030 "at best," AFP reported. According to the report, Bulgaria, Russia, and Ukraine will have a GDP in 2010 equal in size to what they had in 1990. MS[C] END NOTE[23] TOUGHER SANCTIONS: A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD IN CURRENT YUGOSLAV CRISISby Christopher WalkerWith top U.S. and European diplomats giving very different interpretations of Yugoslavia's response to the punitive measures recently proposed by the International Contact Group, a final resolution to the Kosovo crisis remains elusive. Many European officials claim that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has made significant progress in meeting the Contact Group's demands. U.S Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and special Balkan envoy Robert Gelbard have indicated that Yugoslav behavior continues to be unacceptable, thus requiring consideration of more severe measures, including further economic sanctions. It is worth examining what increased economic sanctions regime might mean for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). NATO and the UN are reluctant to employ a military solution, though a debate in the U.S. continues. Russia has strongly objected to the use of force, as well as several other tough measures considered at the meetings of the Contact Group. The investigation of atrocities in Kosovo by the Hague-based International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia is a new step that has been added to pressure Milosevic. The implication to some observers is that he himself is a direct target of that probe. To demonstrate its serious intention to be involved in this effort, the U.S. government announced a $1 million contribution to help the tribunal do its work and send independent investigators to Kosovo. If the Contact Group's proposed steps--the tribunal's investigation into the Kosovo incidents, mild diplomatic and economic sanctions, and an arms embargo on Serbia-- prove insufficient to change Belgrade's behavior, the Contact Group or certain member countries of that group may make use of another option: harsh economic sanctions. Economic sanctions against the FRY were first imposed in spring 1992 and lifted after the signing of the Dayton accords in September 1996. Combined with Milosevic's own economic polices, those sanctions wreaked havoc on the country's economy and pushed a majority of Serbs below the poverty line. The embargo rattled the Milosevic regime but did not dislodge it; on the contrary, a shadowy new pro-Milosevic elite emerged, whose members became rich by smuggling and profiteering. At present, there remains only an "outer wall" of sanctions, which denies FRY access to key international financial sources, such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The imposition of sanctions similar to those in place before the signing of the Dayton accords could have the dual effect of intensifying the economic misery of the average Serb, while reinvigorating conditions for black market activity. Moreover, it is unclear whether average Serbs would hold Milosevic responsible for their economic woes, despite leading officials' lining their pockets. Milosevic may be able to lay blame for domestic economic misery at the door of the West, as he did during the Croatian and Bosnian wars. More important are the longer-term implications of further sanctions. As long as sanctions are in place, the conditions in which corruption flourishes will be prolonged and the establishment of the rule of law delayed. In the case of Kosovo, the chaos, inevitable human misery, and the immense flow of refugees that would result from armed conflict in the Southern Balkans weighs heavily on the minds of European and U.S. diplomats. But if the steps proposed by the international community prove incapable of curbing Serbian behavior in Kosovo, there may be few options, short of military measures, other than tougher economic sanctions. In such a case, the long term impact of economic sanctions on FRY's democratic development will be need to be considered The international community must thus choose from various, unpalatable policy options aimed at modifying the parochialism and isolationism fostered by Milosevic over the past decade. The author is based in Prague and is manager of programs at the European Journalism Network. 01-04-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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