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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 56, 98-03-23Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 56, 23 March 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] OSCE, CANDIDATES REPORT ON ARMENIAN ELECTION VIOLATIONSThe Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's observer mission in Armenia has submitted to the Central Electoral Commission data showing that there were unauthorized persons at 5 percent of the 800 polling stations monitored, Interfax reported on 19 March. The following day, a representative of presidential candidate Karen Demirchyan told RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau that random checking of ballots from several Yerevan precincts revealed serious violations. He noted that in one district in the city of Erebuni, the number of votes cast exceeded the number of voters by 30 percent. Aghvan Vartanyan, campaign press spokesman for Prime Minister and acting president Robert Kocharyan, told journalists on 21 March that "we are doing everything possible" to ensure that the 30 March runoff between Kocharyan and Demirchyan is free and fair, ITAR-TASS reported (see also "End Note" below). LF[02] HAIRIKYAN BACKS KOCHARYAN'S PRESIDENTIAL BIDUnion for Self-Determination leader Paruir Hairikyan, who polled only 5.41 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential election, has endorsed Kocharyan's candidacy in the runoff, ITAR-TASS reported on 21 March. Kocharyan's chief of staff, Aleksan Harutiunyan, told journalists that, in return, Hairikyan has been promised a senior position, possibly coordinating and overseeing state and legal reform. Harutiunyan praised Hairikyan's dissident activities during the 1970s and 1980s, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. LF[03] SHEVARDNADZE'S ATTACKERS TRAINED IN CHECHNYAGeorgian First Deputy Prosecutor-General Revaz Kipani told journalists on 21 March that the men who carried out the failed 9 February attempt to kill Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze were trained near Grozny, Interfax reported. He added that the assassination bid was financed by former Georgian Finance Minister Guram Absandze, whom Moscow extradited to Tbilisi last week. The previous day, Georgian Interior Minister Kakha Targamadze had said on national television that 11 people are wanted for questioning in connection with that assassination attempt and another six for their role in the bid to kill Shevardnadze in August 1995, ITAR-TASS reported. But Targamadze declined to comment on reports that Bessarion Gugushvili, who was prime minister under former President Zviad Gamsakhurdia in 1991 and now lives in Finland, is implicated in the 1998 assassination bid. LF[04] TURKISH CYPRIOT DELEGATION WRAPS UP CENTRAL ASIAN, CAUCASUS TOURA delegation from the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus held talks in Baku on 19 March with presidential foreign policy adviser Vafa Gulu-Zade, the "Turkish Daily News" reported on 20 March. They handed over to Gulu-Zade a message from President Rauf Denktash to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Heidar Aliev. The Turkish Cypriot delegation, which was headed by former Foreign Minister Atay Ahmet Rasit, had previously visited Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. LF[05] TAJIK OPPOSITION RESPONDS TO GOVERNMENT CLAIMSThe United Tajik Opposition has released a statement rejecting claims by the government that the UTO is not complying with the peace accord, ITAR- TASS reported on 22 March. The government had released a statement last week claiming that members of the UTO had carried out a series of attacks on police in central Tajikistan. The UTO statement called on the government to study the facts and threatened to release a list government violations of the peace accord.. BP[06] NUMBER OF KYRGYZ LIVESTOCK DECREASINGDeputy Agriculture Minister Janybek Tumanov told journalists on 20 March that the number of cattle, horses, and sheep has sharply decreased, RFE/RL correspondents reported. He added that the reduction in the number of the sheep--from 11 million to just under 4 million over the past seven years-- is the most damaging to the country. Mutton is the staple food of most of the country's rural residents and of many urban-dwellers as well. BP[07] NIYAZOV TELLS AGRICULTURE HEADS TO MEET QUOTASTurkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov told a meeting of the government on 20 March that if quotas for grain and cotton are not met, those responsible "at all levels" will held accountable, Interfax reported. Niyazov added that criminal charges might also be brought against some individuals. The president also met with the heads of banks and agricultural associations, telling them to do their best to help meet this year's quotas. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[08] KOSOVARS BACK RUGOVAMore than 80 percent of registered voters cast their ballots in the 22 March parliamentary and presidential elections organized by the Kosovo shadow-state government. The vote will be held at a later date in the Srbica, Klina, and Glogovac districts, which are at present under tight Serbian police control. The Serbian authorities declared the vote illegal and in some localities attempted to confiscate ballot papers and boxes, which, however, election officials succeeded in hiding before the police arrived, Albanian Television reported. Several ethnic Albanian opposition parties boycotted the vote on the grounds that elections should not be held so soon after the Serbian police crackdown in the Drenica region. Albanian Television said that the huge turnout indicates massive popular support for shadow-state President Ibrahim Rugova, who is running unopposed for re- election. PM[09] U.S. CONGRESSMEN SAY MILOSEVIC IS "HIDING SOMETHING"Rugova told journalists in Pristina on 22 March that the large turnout shows the Kosovars support the cause of "independent statehood, freedom, democracy and peace." He also thanked numerous foreign election observers, primarily from the U.S. and Albania, who wanted to come to Kosovo to monitor the vote but who were denied visas by the Serbian authorities. The Yugoslav embassy in Skopje denied visas on 21 March to 14 U.S. congressmen who planned to observe the election. A spokesman for the group said the denial of the visas indicates that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is "hiding something" in Kosovo. The congressman added that Milosevic must understand that the international community will not allow him to repeat the "genocide and ethnic cleansing" in Kosovo that he carried out in Bosnia. PM[10] U.S. REJECTS SERBIAN CHARGESSerbian authorities in Kosovo on 21 March arrested six U.S. humanitarian aid workers and sentenced them to 10 days in jail on the grounds that the six did not have residency permits valid for Kosovo. The U.S. embassy in Belgrade the following day issued a statement in which it denied the Serbian charges against the aid workers, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Serbian capital. The statement added that the Serbian move violates the guidelines set down by the recent London conference of the international Contact Group to enable Belgrade to rejoin international institutions. It also said Washington will bring up the incident at the next meeting of the Contact Group, which is slated for 25 March. PM[11] BOSNIAN SERBS BACK MILOSEVICPrime Minister Fatos Nano said in Tirana on 20 March that Kosovo should be given a status within the Yugoslav federation equal to that of Montenegro. The next day in Ljubljana, however, Russian Foreign Minister Yevgenii Primakov said that the idea of making Kosovo a third Yugoslav republic "will lead nowhere." In Berlin, German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel told a local radio station that Kosovo should receive "a special status leading toward autonomy." In Banja Luka on 22 March, the Bosnian Serb parliament approved a declaration slamming attempts to internationalize the Kosovo question. The text said that "a certain section of the international community [supports] separatism" in the province. The declaration added that the legislators support the Belgrade authorities "in their efforts to give an adequate response to all expressions of Albanian terrorism" in Kosovo, RFE/RL reported. PM[12] GLIGOROV REJECTS KOSOVO LINKIn Ohrid on 20 March, Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov told an international conference on Balkan cooperation that Macedonia is "vitally interested" in containing and seeking a quick end to the tensions in Kosovo. He called for direct Serbian- Albanian talks aimed at finding a political solution "in an atmosphere of mutual toleration." Gligorov welcomed the concern of the international community over Kosovo and urged foreign diplomats to become even more active in Balkan affairs and better coordinate their activities with one another. He rejected what he called suggestions that the unrest in Kosovo could easily spread to the ethnic Albanian minority in Macedonia. Gligorov argued that the political status of Macedonia's Albanians is "greatly different" from that of the Kosovars. He said Macedonia is making progress in its efforts to achieve European standards on minority rights, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Ohrid. PM[13] SACIRBEY BLASTS TUDJMAN PLAN FOR BOSNIACroatian President Franjo Tudjman discussed the plan he announced the previous week for the demilitarization of Bosnia with Herzegovinian Croat leaders in Zagreb on 21 March (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 March 1998). Muhamed Sacirbey, who is Bosnia's ambassador to the UN, told an RFE/RL correspondent at the Ohrid conference the same day that Tudjman's proposal is aimed at leaving the Muslims defenseless. He added that Tudjman and the Herzegovinian Croats also want to dissolve the joint Croat and Muslim Bosnian federal army "because it is the only federal institution that wields real power." Sacirbey stressed that the Herzegovinians hope to dissolve the federation, re-establish their wartime Croatian Republic of Herceg-Bosna, and ultimately join Croatia. In Sarajevo, Bosnian military officials said Croatia and Yugoslavia must also be demilitarized if any demilitarization of Bosnia is to be effective. PM[14] DJUKANOVIC CALLS NEW PARTY SERBIA'S TOOLSupporters of Montenegro's former President Momir Bulatovic founded the Socialist People's Party of Montenegro (SNPCG) in Podgorica on 21 March. Bulatovic and his backers thereby completed their break with the governing Democratic Socialist Party (DPS), which is led by President Milo Djukanovic, who opposes Bulatovic and Milosevic. Djukanovic said on 22 March that the SNPCG represents the interests of Milosevic and of Serbia in Montenegrin politics and that the DPS, which seeks more autonomy for Montenegro, will not form a coalition with it. PM[15] ALBANIA HEADING FOR TROUBLE WITH STRASBOURG?The High Council of Justice fired Tirana City Court Chief Justice Qazim Gjonaj on 21 March on the grounds that he distributed arms to civilians during the March 1997 unrest. Gjonaj has admitted giving out the weapons, which he received from the secret service, "Koha Jone" reported. Gjonaj told the daily, however, that he returned all the arms after the anarchy ended. He added that the arms allegation was simply an excuse for his sacking, which he described as "political" following his recent criticism of the Socialist-led government. A high-ranking Council of Europe official told an RFE/RL correspondent at the Ohrid conference on 21 March that the council is concerned about the independence of the Albanian judiciary and will consider suspending Albania's membership if such sackings continue. FS[16] ROMANIAN CABINET MINISTERS CHALLENGE PREMIERPrivatization Minister Valentin Ionescu and Finance Minister Daniel Daianu are opposed to a preliminary agreement that Prime Minister Victor Ciorbea reached with the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) on 20 March. Ciorbea accepted a PDSR suggestion in order to secure the party's support for the draft budget shortly to be submitted to the parliament. The agreement stipulates that the privatization law will be amended to allocate most privatization revenues to the restructuring and modernization of loss- making state enterprises. Ionescu said the PDSR proposal was a "trap" that would result in a situation similar to that created when the PDSR was in power. Daianu said he "refuses" to make any amendment to the draft budget, which says that 80 percent of privatization revenues will go to the state budget, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS[17] MORE MERGERS, SPLITS AMONG ROMANIA'S LIBERALSThe Executive Committee of the Liberal Party on 21 March announced its decision to merge the recently formed Liberal Federation and the National Liberal Party (PNL). It also declared "null and void" a decision taken two days earlier by federation chairman Nicolae Cerveni to suspend Dinu Patriciu's as executive chairman of the federation. Cerveni had suspended Patriciu because of the latter's attempts to merge the federation with the PNL. On 22 March, Cerveni responded by expelling from the Liberal Party eight members of the Patriciu group, including the entire leadership of the former Liberal Party '93, which had merged with Cerveni's National Liberal Party-Democratic Convention to form the Liberal Party in 1997. The Liberal Federation now consists of only the tiny Cerveni wing and national Liberal Party-Campeanu wing. MS[18] HUNGARIAN ETHNICS TO CONTINUE GOVERNMENT PARTNERSHIPThe Council of Representatives of the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR), meeting in Miercurea-Ciuc on 21 March, decided to continue its participation in the governing coalition. UDMR chairman Bela Marko said all members of the ruling coalition must "assume responsibility" for the mistakes made in the past and must correct them. The council rejected by an overwhelming majority a proposal by members of one of UDMR's radical wings that the federation leave the coalition, which has not accepted the UDMR's demands for autonomy. MS[19] COMMUNISTS WIN MOLDOVAN ELECTIONSWith 83 percent of the votes counted, the Party of Moldovan Communists is leading the field in the 22 March parliamentary elections, having won some 30 percent support, BASA-press reported on 23 March. The pro-reform Democratic Convention of Moldova is second, with some 20 percent, closely followed by the pro- presidential For a Prosperous and Democratic Moldova Bloc (18 percent). The conservative pro-Romanian Party of Democratic Forces won some 9 percent of the vote. No other party seems to have passed the 4 percent electoral threshold. Turnout is estimated at about 67 percent. Final results are due by 24 March. MS[20] ODESSA MEETING FAILS TO RESOLVE MAIN TRANSDNIESTRIAN ISSUESTalks in Odessa on the status of the separatist Transdniestrian region failed to resolve the main outstanding issues, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported on 20 March. Moldovan President Petru Lucinschi, separatist leader Igor Smirnov, Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, and Russian Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin attended the talks. Chisinau and Tiraspol agreed, however, that, as a confidence-building measure, each would reduce the number of its troops deployed in the security zone from 2,000 to 1,500 troops. It was also agreed that Ukraine would send peace-keeping observers to the security zone. Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeev, who attended the meeting, ruled out any withdrawal of the Russian contingent from the Transdniester until a final settlement of the conflict has been reached. MS[21] BULGARIAN-RUSSIAN PRELIMINARY AGREEMENT ON GAS SUPPLIESBulgarian Deputy Prime Minister Evgeni Bakardzhiev and Gazprom chief Rem Vyakhirev reached a preliminary agreement in Moscow on 20 March aimed at resolving the long-standing dispute between the two sides over gas supplies to Bulgaria, ITAR-TASS reported. Under that agreement, annual deliveries of gas to Bulgaria will be increased from 6,000 to 8,000 million cubic meters a year, while transit rights for Russian gas deliveries through pipelines on Bulgarian territory will be incrementally increased from 6 million cubic meters to 19 million cubic meters by the year 2010. Vyakhirev said a final agreement is to be signed "within weeks." MS[C] END NOTE[22] A NEW OLIGARCHY EMERGES IN ARMENIAby Emil DanielyanYet another election in Armenia has been marred by procedural violations. It was hoped that the 16 March presidential ballot would put the country back onto a democratic track, but instead the political scene is once again polarized, threatening the country's long-term stability and development. Of the 12 presidential hopefuls who contended the first round of voting, none secured the 50 percent of the vote needed for an outright victory. The two leading candidates, Prime Minister and acting President Robert Kocharian and former Communist leader Karen Demirchian, will therefore compete in a runoff on 30 March. Most observers in Armenia believe Kocharian will emerge as the new president, not least because of serious irregularities that cast a shadow over the first round. This year's electoral fraud was markedly different from that of the September 1996 ballot, which was apparently rigged in favor of then President Levon Ter- Petrossyan. Whereas 18 months ago higher-level electoral commissions systematically falsified election returns, the 1998 vote saw attacks on polling stations and the buying of votes. OSCE observers and defeated candidates say the most frequently reported violation on polling day was the stuffing of hundreds of ballot papers marked for Kocharian into ballot boxes by groups of 20-30 men (often armed) who intimidated and beat opposition proxies (official representatives of opposition candidates). Buying votes (at prices varying from $5 to $20 per ballot) reached an unprecedented scale. Intimidation was particularly widespread in rural areas, which may have contributed to Kocharian's 8 percentage point lead over Demirchian in the first round. The Armenian authorities have claimed that the violations were not premeditated and that the election is an improvement over 1996 presidential poll. This view is not shared by the rival camp, which is convinced Demirchian could have won in the first round had the vote been truly free and fair. On 30 March, Demirchian, who does not have the support of strong grass-roots structures, will face Kocharian, who is backed by the state apparatus and a tight network of quasi-mafia groups. The result of the second round of voting is unlikely to reflect Demirchian's undoubted popularity. An election victory widely perceived to have been secured by dishonest means will increase the mistrust many Armenians already have toward Kocharian following the first round and will jeopardize the emergence of the "national consolidation" to which he aspires. (Similar mistrust of Ter-Petrossyan was one of the key factors that precipitated his resignation in early February.) In addition, two strongmen who are not known as ardent advocates of democracy--Interior and National Security Minister Serzh Sarkisian and Defense Minister Vazgen Sarkisian--are likely to emerge more powerful from the election. Local "clans" associated with those two ministers are believed to have made a significant contribution to Kocharian's victory by providing financial and other resources. The attacks on polling stations, for example, have been blamed on senior members of the Yerkrapah Union of Karabakh War Veterans, whose chairman is Vazgen Sarkisian. Those clans also have control over a substantial portion of economic activities in the country and played a major role in the government oligarchy that emerged under Ter-Petrossyan. After Ter-Petrossyan's resignation, the oligarchy lost its main ideological wing, the Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh), whose quasi-liberal ideology facilitated the material enrichment of the ruling elite. Kocharian is likely to assign the role of "ideological front" to the nationalist Dashnak party, which was persecuted by Ter-Petrossyan. and is now expected to take over the education and culture portfolios. The Dashnaks will have no disagreement with the "power ministries," as far as a tough Armenian stand on Nagorno-Karabakh and nationalism are concerned. But it remains to be seen whether the Dashnaks will put up with the "plunder of the people," against which the Dashnaks have pledged to fight. The two groups are, however, united in their hostility toward the free market. The Dashnaks are advocates of "true socialism," while the clans loyal to the two Sarkisians have made fortunes owing to their privileged position and want neither free competition nor the rule of law to disrupt their monopolist activities. Economic liberalization and legal safeguards are essential conditions for the economic recovery that Kocharian has pledged. But the way the presidential election is being handled suggests he may not be able to establish those conditions. Kocharian, who argues that Karabakh is not the main impediment to Armenia's development, will not be able to blame the unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan for continued economic hardship. Moreover, the emergence of the new oligarchy does not bode well for the prospects of democratization in Armenia. And this year's presidential election will certainly not help overcome the lack of "democratic traditions," which, according to Kocharian, was responsible for the voting irregularities. The author is a Yerevan-based correspondent for RFE/RL's Armenian Service. 23-03-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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