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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 50, 98-03-13Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 50, 13 March 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] DISPUTE OVER ABKHAZ ELECTIONS HEATS UPAbkhaz leader Vladislav Ardzinba on 12 March dismissed the objections of both Moscow and Tbilisi over plans to hold local elections on that territory, ITAR-TASS reported. Ardzinba said that he does not see how a move to democracy can prove destabilizing, as the Russian and Georgian governments have argued. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ivan Rybkin told a group of Georgian parliamentary deputies that Tbilisi must not use force to resolve the Abkhaz situation. And the command of the CIS peace-keepers in that region asked Georgia to pull back some of its armored units from the border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia. PG[02] OSCE WORRIED ABOUT ARMENIAN ELECTION PROCEDURESChristopher Shields, the coordinator of OSCE observer mission in Armenia, said on 12 March that Yerevan has not yet addressed several worrisome procedures, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported. Shields said his group is especially concerned about the use of mobile ballot boxes in remote areas and the willingness of the Central Election Commission to allow Armenian citizens abroad to vote without having registered beforehand. Some 160 OSCE monitors are currently in Armenia. PG[03] ALIEV MAY NOT ATTEND CIS SUMMITRFE/RL correspondents in Baku reported on 13 March that Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev will not attend the 19 March CIS summit in Moscow because of Russian shipments of weapons to Armenia's and Moscow's failure to respond to an Azerbaijani request to extradite Shakhin Musaev. Musaev is suspected of plotting terrorist attacks against Aliev. However, ITAR-TASS reported the same day that there is no confirmation Aliev will not attend the summit. BP[04] SIX SENTENCED TO DEATH IN TAJIKISTANThe Tajik Supreme Court has handed down sentences on 19 men allegedly involved in the assassination attempt on President Imomali Rakhmonov in the northern Tajik city of Khujand last April. Six received the death penalty, while the others were sentence to between one and 14 years in jail. Among those condemned to death is Abdulkahfiz Abdullayev, the brother of Abdumalik Abdullajonov, who is head of Tajikistan's National Revival Movement and a former prime minister. Amnesty International has already appealed the death sentences. Under the Tajik Constitution, the president can pardon those sentenced to death . BP[05] TURKMEN PRESIDENT OPENS NEW INDUSTRIAL FACILITIESSaparmurat Niyazov on 12 March attended the opening of the Malai-Charjou pipeline, which will provide up to 7.5 million cubic meters of natural gas for domestic use. In his address, Niyazov noted that the Turkmen population receives 5 billion cubic meters of gas free of charge each year. The president also opened a factory producing parts for agricultural machinery and a soap factory, the first of its kind in Turkmenistan. BP[06] MINIMUM WAGE TO BE LOWERED IN KAZAKHSTAN?The Kazakh government has resubmitted to the parliament a proposal to suspend the law on the minimum wage until the year 2004, ITAR-TASS reported on 13 March. The government claims it can provide only 67 percent of the amount required by that legislation. The monthly minimum wage currently stands at 3,109 tenge ($40). Leonid Martynov, the deputy chairman of Kazakhstan's Federation of Trade Unions, called the plan a "rude violation" of the agreement between the executive, the trade unions, and employees. The lower house has already voted down the proposal. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] U.S., KOSOVARS SLAM SERBIAN "PROPAGANDA EXERCISE"...A State Department spokesman in Washington said that the Serbian invitation to Kosovars for talks in Pristina on 12 March is a "propaganda exercise" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 March 1998). He added that "it seems like the Belgrade authorities are proposing things that are designed to fail." In Pristina, Parliamentary Party leader Adem Demaci said the Serbian government ministers "came as lords to their servants, to ask if the servants have any complaints." No Kosovars attended the talks. PM[08] ...BUT BELGRADE TRIES AGAINFollowing the Kosovo Albanians' refusal to attend the 12 March open- invitation talks, the Serbian government issued individual invitations to prominent Kosovo politicians to attend a discussion the following day. Fehmi Agani of the Democratic League of Kosovo and other prominent Kosovars said, however, that they will not attend those talks because the Serbs continue to attach conditions. Luljeta Pula-Beqiri, the Social Democratic candidate for the Kosovar shadow-state presidency, said the Kosovars cannot sit down with the people responsible for the recent killings in Drenica. PM[09] KOSOVARS TO GO AHEAD WITH VOTEShadow-state President Ibrahim Rugova announced the formation in Pristina on 12 March of an election commission to supervise the 22 March presidential and parliamentary vote. Elsewhere, student representatives said a mass demonstration will take place near the U.S. cultural center on 13 March. Women have been holding candle-light vigils in Pristina for several days. Meanwhile, the Kosovo Committee for the Defense of Human Rights and Freedoms, has issued a statement that puts the Albanian death toll at over 90. The text added that most of the victims are women, children or elderly. And spokesmen for the Kosovar Red Cross stated that 14, 000 people have fled the Drenica region since the Serbian assault began two weeks ago. PM[10] BELGRADE TURNS DOWN MEDIATORIvica Dacic, a spokesman for the governing Socialist Party of Serbia, said in Belgrade on 12 March that Serbia will deal with Kosovo "without an international mediator." He added that the "internal issues of Serbia cannot be internationalized." Spanish former Prime Minister Felipe Gonzales was recently asked by the international Contact Group to mediate in the Kosovo crisis but said he will do so only if Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic approves. The Kosovars, for their part, seek to involve the international community in the Kosovo question and have asked for foreign mediation in any talks they hold with the Serbs. PM[11] TALBOTT SEEKS SOUTHEAST EUROPEAN SUPPORTDeputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott left Washington on 12 March to visit Slovenia, Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria, and Romania. He will seek to coordinate those countries' policies on Kosovo with that of the U.S.. It is unclear why Croatia was not included on his itinerary, although Zagreb regularly refuses to be drawn into any diplomatic initiative that centers on the Balkans. Before leaving, Talbott said: "We absolutely must show resolve... to get ahead of the vicious cycle underway on the ground. If Kosovo truly blows, it could be worse than Bosnia with the risk of spreading in all directions, including south and east." He added it is important that Albania and Macedonia "do nothing to rile the situation further." PM[12] MORE PEACEKEEPERS FOR BALKANS?A State Department spokesman said in Washington on 12 March that enlarging the UN peacekeeping force in Macedonia and expanding its mandate "is something that's under discussion right now.... We are looking at what...mix of capabilities and missions will best serve a situation that has gotten worse.... We're trying to make sure that we take all the steps we can to enhance the stability of the region, to give confidence to the countries in the region, and to make sure that there are no miscalculations ... so that if the situation does deteriorate further, the risk of it spreading is limited." The spokesman added that Washington is considering providing additional military training to countries in the region under NATO's Partnership for Peace program. PM[13] EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT IN FAVOR OF PEACEKEEPERSThe European Parliament on 12 March passed a resolution calling on the UN, EU, NATO, the OSCE, and the Western European Union to send a preventive deployment force to the Balkans. Dutch Liberal leader Gijs de Vries told the assembly that "the lesson still has not been learned...that violence can only be combated by military means." He was alluding to the international community's reluctance to act after Serbia launched wars in Croatia in 1991 and in Bosnia the following year. "Take off your blinkers. The conflict in Kosovo is more dangerous than the others were," De Vries added. PM[14] SOLANA SAYS KOSOVO WON'T AFFECT BOSNIANATO Secretary-General Javier Solana said in Banja Luka on 12 March that he hopes that the crisis in Kosovo will not have any affect on Bosnia. He said it is necessary to "separate both issues." Later in Tirana, he said that "in the current situation, we are opposed to the deployment of an international force, either in Kosovo or in Albania," which Albania has requested (see RFE/RL Newsline, 12 March 1998). His host, Prime Minister Fatos Nano, urged "our brothers in Kosovo" to refrain from violence and "understand...that dialogue cannot take place in the presence of gunfire." PM[15] CROATIA TO RESTORE SERBIAN PROPERTY RIGHTSDeputy Prime Minister Ljerka Mintas-Hodak said in Zagreb on 12 March that the government has prepared legislation to repeal wartime laws under which the homes and property of Croatian Serbs who fled the country were confiscated. The international community has long demanded that Croatia enable the Serbs to return to their homes. The government also decided to ban all political demonstrations in eastern Slavonia until 1 August (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 March 1998). PM[16] WESTENDORP RULES ON TOWN COUNCILSA spokesman for the international community's Carlos Westendorp said on 12 March in Sarajevo that his office has ruled on the composition of eight town councils over which local officials had been unable to agree. The composition of a further eight, out of a total of 136 town councils, remains disputed. Elsewhere, the mainly Croatian and Muslim federal parliament approved a bill restoring ownership rights to prewar owners of apartments, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Sarajevo. PM[17] HARMONY BETWEEN ALBANIAN RIVALS?Pandeli Majko, who heads the Socialist Party faction, and parliamentary speaker Skender Gjinushi met with the local Democratic Party leadership in the Democratic stronghold of Shkoder on 11 March. Majko said that they discussed the 22 February clashes in Shkoder and that the local Democrats distanced themselves from any responsibility for the incidents, according to "Dita Informacion." The daily pointed out that the meeting was a surprise for most observers because of the polarized political scene in Albania and because the Socialists and Democrats have consistently blamed each other for the Shkoder clashes. FS[18] CONSTANTINESCU SAYS DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE IN LONDON SUCCESSFULReturning from the London conference of EU states and candidates, President Emil Constantinescu on 13 March said Romania's "diplomatic offensive" for "equal treatment of all candidates" for EU membership was successful. He said negotiations with all 11 candidates will begin at foreign minister level in Brussels on 30 March. "Screening" of their performance to date will start several days later, he added. Constantinescu said this was a "last minute" decision adopted by the London conference, according to Romanian state radio. His statement has not yet been confirmed by an official EU source. MS[19] ARE DEMOCRATS STILL PART OF RULING COALITION?Ion Diaconescu, the chairman of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic, said on 13 March that the Democratic Party has "placed itself outside the coalition," RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Diaconescu spoke after Democratic parliamentary deputies voted against a change in the Civil Code proposed by the cabinet. He said that if the Democrats wish to rejoin the coalition, a "new protocol" must be negotiated. Democratic Party chairman Petre Roman said in reaction that the ending of the coalition can not be "decreed unilaterally." Democratic Party deputy chairman Victor Babiuc said the same day that President Constantinescu must intervene "as soon as possible" to resolve the government crisis in such a way as to make it possible for the Democrats to return to the executive. MS[20] TIRASPOL CHALLENGES MOLDOVA'S COMMUNISTS...According to the Department of State Security of the separatist Tiraspol region, the Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM) has set up an electoral headquarters in Rybnitsa in defiance of the "sovereignty" of the "Moldovan Transdniestrian Republic." The department said it has recently confiscated more than 1,000 electoral leaflets distributed by the PCM. It added it will not allow campaigning for the 22 March Moldovan parliamentary elections on the territory of the "independent republic." The department also accused PCM leader Vladimir Voronin of trying to take over Communist Party organizations in the Transdniester, adding that the attempt has been "severely condemned" by most Transdniestrian Communists, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. MS[21] ...WHILE UKRAINIAN COMMUNISTS BACK MOLDOVAN COMRADESIn a joint appeal published in the Russian-language government daily "Nezavisimaya Moldova" on 12 March, PCM leader Voronin and Petr Simonenko, the head of the Ukrainian Communist Party, called on Moldovan and Ukrainian voters to back the Communists in the upcoming elections in both countries, saying the "future of the next generations" is "very much dependent" on how they vote. The two leaders said the "destruction of the Soviet Union and its flourishing economy" had been accomplished "with the help of foreign stage directors." They also argued that "only the Communists have a clear conception about rebuilding a Union of Independent States on a new basis," BASA-press reported. MS[22] BULGARIAN PREMIER ON RISK OF FANNING FUNDAMENTALISM IN TURKEYIvan Kostov told journalists in London on 12 March , where he attended the EU conference, that the isolation of Turkey from the EU risks igniting Islamic fundamentalism in that country, AFP reported. Addressing the conference, Kostov said that there is "no alternative to the EU for European countries" and that exclusion from the group will result in "raising crime, extremism, and economic ruin." MS[C] END NOTE[23] SLOVENIAN ECONOMY STAGNATES AMID RESISTANCE TO REFORMby Michael WyzanSlovenia occupies an odd position among transition countries. Included in the first wave of countries invited to begin accession talks with the EU, it is often praised for having risen above the turmoil in the rest of former Yugoslavia and joined "Central Europe." In the EU's eyes, the distance between Slovenia and its erstwhile fellow republics is such that no other component of the former Yugoslavia is officially considered even a candidate for EU membership. Nonetheless, Slovenia's economy is somewhat stagnant, especially the industrial sector, and resistance to reform is strong among industrial workers and bankers. Those working in industry are often unwilling to part with features of the old Yugoslav self-management system, under which their representatives held as many as half of the seats on enterprise supervisory boards. Macroeconomic policy was nearly paralyzed in 1997 by the failure of the government--which was formed in February, several months after the November 1996 general elections--to pass the annual budget before December. Macroeconomic indicators were respectable and rather similar to 1996's. GDP grew by 2.9-3.3 percent, compared with 3.1 percent in 1996. Industrial production grew by only 1.3 percent, slightly up on 1996's 1.0 percent but down from 6.4 percent in 1994. Weak industrial performance results partly from slow restructuring of enterprises. Even after privatization, companies are frequently held hostage to pressure against layoffs from workers' representatives on supervisory councils, which have sometimes fired managers who had advanced restructuring plans. Before the major foreign investment deal of 1997--the U.S. tire-maker Goodyear's purchase of the Sava rubber company-- Sava employees had concluded a deal with the Slovenian company expanding their participation in management. Banks are also resisting reform and have taken the government to court over a tax on financial institutions aimed at forcing banks to consolidate and increase lending to enterprises. The budget deficit was 1.2-1.4 percent of GDP, low by international standards but the highest since independence. This deterioration resulted from increased transfers to the pension fund, wage payments agreed to in late 1996, reductions in employers' social security contributions, and import tariffs. The government succeeded somewhat in slowing the growth of wages last year: wages in November were up 8.0 percent over November 1996 (compared with a 15.9 percent in November 1996 over November 1995). But even with slower growth, dollar gross wages--at $890 in November 1997--remain by a wide margin the highest among transition countries. With such high labor costs, real wage growth in excess of productivity increases sparks fears about the country's international competitiveness. Retail price inflation in 1997 (December-to- December) was 9.4 percent, up 8.8 percent on the previous 12 months, partly owing to hikes in administered electricity and oil prices. According to official statistics, the unemployment rate was 14.5 percent in October, although a survey conducted by the International Labour Organization found a rate of only 7.1 percent in May. Neither of those figures had changed much over 1996. Foreign sector developments were generally favorable in 1997, with a trade deficit of $874 million through November, compared with $1.04 billion in the first nine months of 1996. Calculated in German marks--a good yardstick since most of Slovenia's trade is with the EU - exports and imports were both up almost 15 percent in the first 10 months of 1997. Throughout the same period, the current account was in surplus ($76.3 million). The Bank of Slovenia's foreign exchange reserves (excluding gold) reached a comfortable $3.4 billion in November, up from $2.3 billion at the end of 1996. Foreign direct investment rose in 1997, with inflows of $246 million during the first nine months, compared with $186 million for 1996 as a whole. Those favorable external sector trends occurred despite the fact that the tolar depreciated only slightly against the German mark last year, from 91.0 at the end of 1996 to 94.4 at the close of 1997. The government took various steps in 1997 to align its legislation with EU standards, ahead of the beginning of accession talks at the end of this month. A document submitted to the parliament in October outlined the government's priorities in this regard as the reform of taxation, pensions, the financial sector, and government service provision, as well as further price liberalization. New legislation calls for removing barriers to foreign direct investment, except in defense industries and health and pension insurance, and allowing foreigners to become the sole owners of local firms. But the trade unions, already unhappy about the slowdown in wage growth and plans to limit workers' representation on supervisory boards to one-third of the seats, will probably resist some of those reforms, particularly in the pension sphere. The author is an economist living in Austria. 13-03-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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