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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 43, 98-03-04Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 43, 4 March 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] OSCE REGRETS ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT'S FAILURE TO AMEND ELECTION LAWThe Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's election monitoring mission in Armenia released a statement on 3 March expressing regret at the parliament's failure to include proposed amendments to the election law on its agenda. Those amendments would allow local Armenian observers to monitor the poll and the vote count. The OSCE statement also called on the Armenian authorities to ensure that all presidential candidates have equal access to state media, that government officials do not interfere in the voting, and that the elections are as transparent as possible, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The OSCE also called on the Central Electoral Commission to clarify procedures for Armenian citizens voting abroad. LF[02] ARMENIA TO RETHINK ITS POLICY ON OIL TRANSITSpeaking at a news conference in Yerevan on 3 March, acting Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian said that Armenia's next president will have to reconsider the impact of oil on the country's foreign policy, Interfax reported. Oskanian described oil as a key factor for stability in the Caucasus region, and predicted that Armenian policy on oil transit will change after the 16 March presidential poll. Former President Levon Ter- Petrossyan had rejected linking a solution to the Karabakh conflict to the routing of oil pipelines through Armenia. In February, the Armenian parliament ratified the April 1996 agreement on the unrestricted transit of oil throughout the CIS. LF[03] KARABAKH FOREIGN MINISTER ASSESSES PEACE PROSPECTSNaira Melkoumian told an RFE/RL correspondent in Washington on 3 March that she is "satisfied" with talks she held with Lynn Pascoe, the U.S. co- chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk group, at the U.S. State Department the previous day. Melkoumian predicted that a lasting solution to the Karabakh conflict could be achieved relatively quickly provided that the Azerbaijani leadership is prepared not only to demand but also to make concessions. A U.S. State Department official told RFE/RL that the financial benefits of a peace agreement are more important than concessions. "There is a lot of international willingness to help finance development in this long-troubled region," he said. LF[04] ABKHAZIA INTERCEPTS GEORGIAN GUERRILLASAbkhaz Security Service head Astamur Tarba told Interfax on 3 March that his men have detained four Georgian guerrillas armed with explosives, anti- tank mines, and detonators in a village in Abkhazia's Ochamchire Raion. To date, the Georgian "White Legion" guerrilla organization has largely confined its activities to Gali Raion, located between Ochamchire and Abkhazia's border with the rest of Georgia. Tarba also said that an Abkhaz patrol boat opened fire on four Georgian fishing vessels that refused to comply with a request to leave Abkhaz territorial waters off Anaklia. The Georgian Border Guard Service has condemned that incident as an "outright breach of the cease-fire agreement" concluded in May 1994. LF[05] U.S.-AZERBAIJANI JOINT VENTURE IN JEOPARDY?Reza Vaziri, president of RV Investment Group Services, has expressed concern at the Azerbaijani parliament's delay in ratifying an August 1997 contract between his company and Azerbaijan's Azergyzyl, Turan reported on 3 March. The joint venture would develop deposits in western Azerbaijan containing an estimated 400 tons of gold and 2,500 tons of silver. Vaziri said that the contract is still being examined by the Azerbaijani presidential administration. In January, the deputy head of Azerbaijan's State Precious Metals Institute said that Azerbaijan may unilaterally cancel the contract because the U.S. partner has not yet begun to implement it (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 August 1997 and 12 January 1998.) LF[06] KYRGYZ, UZBEK FOREIGN MINISTERS IN TAJIKISTANMuratbek Imanaliev and Abdulaziz Kamilov, meeting with their Tajik counterpart, Talbak Nazarov, in Dushanbe on 3 March, expressed concern about the spread of religious extremism in Central Asia, ITAR-TASS reported. They also supported maintaining a "secular" Tajik government. Kamilov said the three countries will work together to "locate sources of this threat [of religious extremism] and coordinate efforts to combat it." He declined, however, to specify what those sources might be. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will support Tajikistan's entry into the Central Asian Union (whose third member is Kazakhstan) at the next meeting of that organization. BP[07] HEAD OF RADIO ALMAZ COMMENTS ON CLOSURERustam Koshmuratov told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service on 3 March that although he completed the process of registering Radio Almaz last December, the National Agency of Communications (NAS), which was established in October 1997, had demanded additional documents. The station was also accused of piracy for broadcasting in translation programs originally broadcast by the Voice of America and RFE/RL's Russian Service. Koshmuratov, however, said he had submitted copies of letters giving him permission to rebroadcast programming from the two sources but was told by NAS officials that more documents were required. Radio Almaz was closed down on 23 February. BP[08] KAZAKH OPPOSITION LEADER'S WHEREABOUTS UNKNOWNMadel Ismailov of the Almaty City Workers Movement has neither been seen nor heard from since he was taken into police custody following the founding conference of the opposition People's Front movement on 27 February, RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty reported. Murat Auezov co- chairman of the opposition movement Azamat, said inquiries have been made at all Almaty's jails. Ismailov's colleagues fear he is being detained at a National Security Committee prison. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY VOWS REVENGEThe clandestine Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) said in a statement published in "Bujku" on 4 March that the UCK will seek "multiple vengeance for the innocent deaths" of up to 30 ethnic Albanians at the hands of Serbian police on 28 February and 1 March. The UCK said it has clashed with Serbian security forces in a dozen villages in the Drenica region over the past four days, noting that it captured "a large amount of military equipment, a dozen vehicles, and a [police] helicopter" in the process. The recent violence has led to a ground swell of support among Kosovars for the UCK, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported. PM[10] KOSOVARS, SERBS BURY THEIR DEADSome 40,000 people on 3 March attended the funerals of 24 ethnic Albanians killed in recent police violence. Serbian police barred foreign journalists from the funerals, which took place in Cirez and Likosane, and discouraged Kosovars from outside the area from attending. Speaking in Pristina, Kosovo shadow-state President Ibrahim Rugova condemned the police for those actions. Meanwhile in Belgrade, two policemen killed in the violence were buried with full military honors. PM[11] GELBARD TELLS MILOSEVIC NOT TO USE FORCERobert Gelbard, the U.S. special envoy to the former Yugoslavia, said in Washington on 3 March that Yugoslav "President [Slobodan] Milosevic is well aware that the United States will not tolerate violence, and violence will be met by the most dire consequences imaginable. That will be the end of his government without any question." Gelbard added that, in a telephone conversation, he "offered President Milosevic two choices: one choice is to rejoin the international community..., the other way however is the road to the end to his government." The envoy also urged ethnic Albanians to shun "those who are terrorists and advocate violence." Gelbard added that the Albanians must solve the Kosovo problem themselves through dialogue with the Serbs and not expect "any rescue from outside." PM[12] ALBRIGHT WEIGHS KOSOVO MEETING. A spokesman for U.SSecretary of State Madeleine Albright said in Washington on 3 March that she has discussed the Kosovo situation with her Russian and British counterparts by telephone. The spokesman added that he does "not rule out" a meeting on Kosovo between her and other key foreign ministers later this week. British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook is slated to speak with Milosevic in Belgrade on 5 March. Cook's spokesman said in London that the minister will tell his host that the EU will not restore Yugoslavia's membership in the international community until the Kosovo problem is solved peacefully. PM[13] EU WANTS RETURN OF KOSOVO AUTONOMYEU Commissioner for External Relations Hans van den Broek said in a statement in Brussels on 3 March that President Milosevic must "open a dialogue of peace with the Albanians of Kosovo... and restore its autonomy. If he does not act, he must not be surprised if others do so in his place." Van den Broek added that Milosevic faces "tough economic sanctions" if he resorts to violence in Kosovo. PM[14] YUGOSLAV DEFENSE MINISTER BLAMES FOREIGNERSFederal Yugoslav Defense Minister Pavle Bulatovic said in Belgrade on 3 March that "there would be no terrorism [in Kosovo] and the Kosovo problem would not be what it is today if the separatists did not enjoy the support of a certain section of the international community." Meanwhile in Pristina, the daily "Koha Ditore" wrote that "Gelbard shares responsibility" for the violence because he allegedly played into Serbian hands by recently accusing some Albanians of engaging in terrorism (see "End Note," "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 March 1998). PM[15] MACEDONIA HEIGHTENS BORDER ALERTMacedonian troops stationed on the borders with Yugoslavia and Albania raised their level of readiness on 1 March, BETA reported from Skopje on 3 March. In Ankara, the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement calling for a dialogue in Kosovo to guarantee "basic rights and freedoms" for all ethnic groups "within the framework of Yugoslavia's territorial integrity," the "Turkish Daily News" wrote. In Athens, a Foreign Ministry spokesman announced that Greece has put its good offices at the disposal of all parties to the Kosovo dispute and that Foreign Minister Theodoros Pangalos will go to Belgrade on 6 March. PM[16] NO SFOR FOR KOSOVOA spokesman for the Bosnian peacekeepers said in Sarajevo on 3 March that SFOR will not intervene in Kosovo because its mandate strictly limits its activities to Bosnia and Croatia, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Bosnian capital. The "Washington Post" wrote the next day that the U.S. and its NATO allies have decided to keep SFOR's strength at about 31,000 troops throughout this year. PM[17] DODIK WANTS IVANIC FOR BOSNIAN PRESIDENCYRepublika Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said in Brussels on 3 March that he hopes that Mladen Ivanic will replace Momcilo Krajisnik as the Serbian representative on the Bosnian joint presidency after the 12-13 September general elections. Ivanic was Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic's first nominee to become prime minister, but Krajisnik and other hard-liners vetoed his appointment. PM[18] BETTER CHANCES FOR NON-NATIONALISTS?In Sarajevo on 3 March, the international community's Carlos Westendorp urged representatives of six opposition parties from both Bosnian entities to form a joint slate for the upcoming elections, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Bosnian capital. Westendorp also discussed the possibility of changing existing legislation in order to increase the electoral chances of multi-ethnic and non-nationalist parties. PM[19] ALBANIAN PYRAMID TO BE INVESTIGATED FOR MONEY LAUNDERINGOfficials at the Prosecutor-General's office said on 1 March that they will soon launch an investigation into the VEFA pyramid to determine whether the company was involved in money laundering, "Gazeta Shqiptare" reported. They noted that the final report on VEFA drawn up by the U.S. auditing firm Deloitte & Touche shows that the origins of a large amount of revenues are unknown (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 March 1998). Meanwhile, the government's chief pyramid investigator Farudin Arapi has discussed that report with Prosecutor-General Arben Rakipi. "Gazeta Shqiptare" reported on 3 March that Rakipi will probably soon start legal proceedings against the owners of all five pyramid schemes investigated by Deloitte & Touche on charges of misappropriating investors' money. FS[20] ROMANIAN GOVERNMENT SEEKS TO INCREASE BUDGET REVENUESThe cabinet on 3 March raised gasoline prices as part of the effort to keep the budget deficit at 3.6 percent of GDP. The price of gasoline was increased by 50 percent and diesel by 25 percent. Finance Minister Daniel Daianu said that despite those hikes, estimates of inflation this year at 45 percent may be "over ambitious." Also on 3 March, the State Property Fund said the Bucharest IMGB motor enterprise, one of Romania's largest, is to be sold to the Norwegian-British Kvaerner concern for $500,000. IMGB's $26 million debt is to be taken over by Kvaerner, which will also invest $80 million and refrain from layoffs. MS[21] CONSTANTINESCU MEETS ETHNIC HUNGARIAN LEADERSEmil Constantinescu on 3 March told Bela Marko, the leader of the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR), that the UDMR is behaving "responsibly" and that its contribution to the government coalition goes "far beyond that of an ethnic party." Marko said that for the time being, the UDMR will not insist that its demands be implemented immediately because "the most important thing on the agenda" now is to ensure the passage of the budget in the parliament. The previous day, the Chamber of Deputies decided to postpone debates on the education law. Meanwhile, Gheorghe Funar, the nationalist mayor of Cluj, has announced he is banning all commemorations on 15 March, when Romania's Hungarian community marks the 1848 revolution in Transylvania. MS[22] KUCHMA TO TAKE PART IN TRANSDIESTER NEGOTIATIONSUkrainian President Leonid Kuchma told journalists on 3 March that he will participate in negotiations on the Transdniester conflict in March. He said that he will meet with Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Moldovan President Petru Lucinschi, and the leader of the separatist region Igor Smirnov to discuss a settlement of the conflict. Kuchma specified neither the date nor the venue of the talks. In other news, Moldovan Prime Minister Ion Ciubuc responded to Ivan Rybkin's appointment as Russian deputy premier in charge of relations with CIS states, by saying cooperation within the organization has been developing "irrespective of personnel changes in either Chisinau or Moscow," ITAR-TASS reported. MS[C] END NOTE[23] FORMER COMMUNIST MAY HOLD KEY TO ARMENIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACEBy Emil DanielyanThe Armenian presidential race has taken a new twist. Former Armenian Communist Party First Secretary Karen Demirchian is increasingly gaining ground on the two front- runners, Prime Minister and acting President Robert Kocharian and his main opposition challenger, Vazgen Manukian. It is widely believed that Kocharian pressured Demirchian to run for the presidency in a bid to weaken the chances of the other opposition candidates. But unofficial surveys suggest that Demirchian has good chances of winning the 16 March presidential ballot because of widespread popular nostalgia for the "good old days." Thus Kocharian's and Manukian's pre- election confidence may prove premature owing to the emergence of a new heavyweight. Demirchian headed the Armenian Communist Party from 1974 to 1988, a period of stability and relative prosperity for the former Soviet republic. Since the end of Communist rule in Armenia in summer 1990, he has been director of one of Armenia's largest state enterprises but has kept a low public profile. Demirchian's growing popularity underscores public discontent with the current socio-economic situation in Armenia. Many Armenians want the former Communist boss to return to power in the hope that he will be able to re- establish the living standards they enjoyed 10 years ago. Industrial decline and war with neighboring Azerbaijan triggered the economic collapse of the early 1990s. As recently as two weeks ago, very few observers believed Demirchian would constitute a serious threat to Kocharian or any other leading candidate. At a closed-door meeting one day before Demirchian announced his candidacy, the two were rumored to have struck a deal whereby Demirchian would endorse Kocharian in an anticipated run-off election, thereby securing what they expected to be a significant number of additional votes for the acting president. Voters who had cast their ballots in September 1996 for Manukian and his center-right National Democratic Union (AZhM) to protest the policies of Levon Ter-Petrossyan now have Demirchian as an alternative. The same holds true for former supporters of current Communist leader Sergei Badalian, for whom Demirchian's bid is likely to prove disastrous. Ironically, however, it is Prime Minister Kocharian who may ultimately suffer the most from Demirchian's unexpected popularity. Official opinion polls are notoriously misleading in Armenia. Thus, local observers rely largely on conversations with individual voters, which, combined with impressions of campaign volunteers collecting signatures for their candidates, suggest Demirchian and Manukian have the best chances of reaching a second round (which will be necessary if no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote on 16 March). Demirchian told RFE/RL last weekend that, if elected, he will "consolidate all political forces" to establish democracy and a free market economy. He said he supports a "peaceful settlement" of the conflict with Azerbaijan. And he added that Nagorno-Karabakh must never be regain the status it had before1988, but he did not say what he would offer as an alternative. Demirchian also denied having colluding with the authorities over his decision to run in the elections. He gave the impression of being self- confident and showed no signs of poor health, despite allegations to the contrary. In the event of Demirchian's victory, Armenia would join the other two Transcaucasian states in having returned a Brezhnev-era Communist to power. Both Presidents Eduard Shevardnadze of Georgia and Heidar Aliev of Azerbaijan are the linchpins of their countries' stability. Both know Demirchian well, having ruled the region at a time when it was one of the most well-to-do parts of the former USSR. Aliev and Shevardnadze rapidly adjusted to the new post-Soviet realities, and their pragmatism and flexibility helped them regain power. Whether Demirchian can do likewise will become clear very soon. But it is nonetheless quite remarkable that many Armenians are now turning to the former Communist boss after having condemned him in 1988 for not sufficiently supporting Karabakh's drive for secession from Azerbaijan. At the same time, Demirchian's conspicuous avoidance of the media has fueled suspicions about his possible involvement in pre-election deals with Kocharian. Some observers believe that the Armenian leadership has compromising information with which it could blackmail Demirchian into withdrawing his candidacy if he appears to be on his way to winning outright in the first round of voting. Those observers reason that Demirchian's last- minute endorsement of Ter-Petrossyan's presidential candidacy on the eve of the September 1996 election was highly suspicious following his decade of silence. Some think he may have made that endorsement under pressure from the then ruling party. Moreover, Demirchian lacks a credible political force on which he can rely (he collected only 37,882 signatures in support of his registration, as compared with Kocharian's 255,994 and Manukian's 303,096). Undoubtedly, his rivals will make full use of their campaign mechanisms in an attempt to bolster support for their candidacies. The author is an RFE/RL freelance correspondent based in Yerevan. 04-03-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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