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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 177, 97-12-11Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 1, No. 177, 11 December 1997CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] ARMENIANS DEMONSTRATE AGAINST KARABAKH CONCESSIONSOn 10 December, several thousand people participated in a demonstration in Yerevan convened by opposition parties to demand that the Armenian leadership reject any Karabakh peace accord that would restore Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. On 9 December, the Armenian Foreign Ministry issued a statement accusing opposition parties of adopting a "demagogic" and "adventurist" stance on Karabakh, and appealing to the Armenian people to "refrain from extremism" in the runup to the 18-19 December meeting of Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe foreign ministers in Copenhagen. The statement affirmed that the Ministry "fulfills its obligations before the people, the country's leadership, and future generations, and is not dependent on outside influence," Noyan Tapan reported. LF[02] KARABAKH ARMENIANS CALL ON YEREVAN LEADERSHIP FOR SUPPORTOn 9 December, a dozen Karabakh political parties issued a statement affirming their commitment to independent status for the disputed enclave, Noyan Tapan reported. The signatories expressed the hope that the Armenian leadership "will find the courage and strength" to defend the position of the leadership and people of Nagorno-Karabakh in the international arena, and called on international NGOs and government organizations to respect the right of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh to self-determination and security. LF[03] ARMENIAN TELEPHONE NETWORK PRIVATIZEDThe Armenian government press service announced on 9 December that a Greek consortium has won the tender to acquire the national telephone network Armentel for $142.5 million, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. The Armenian government owns a 51 percent stake in Armentel, and will retain a 10 percent stake; the remaining 49 percent is owned by the U.S. Trans-World Telecom Corporation. The Greek consortium is headed by the partly privatized OTE state telecommunications company together with the Greek Levantis Group. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development may acquire a 10 percent stake in Armentel in the near future, according to Asbarez-on-Line on 9 December. LF[04] AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT ON OIC . . .Addressing the Organization of the Islamic Conference summit in Tehran on 9 December, Heidar Aliev listed as the basic goals of that organization the protection of the rights of Muslim minorities and communities, safeguarding the territorial integrity of Muslim countries and the "stable progress" of the Muslim world, Turan reported. Aliev expressed appreciation for aid provided by several Islamic nations to Azerbaijanis displaced during the Karabakh conflict. Aliev reaffirmed his country's commitment to a peaceful solution of that conflict, which would create conditions for Azerbaijan "to become a prosperous state and provide aid to its Muslim brothers." Turkish President Suleyman Demirel in his address to the summit likewise called on the OIC to redouble its efforts to solve the Karabakh conflict within the framework of the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe Minsk Group, according to the "Turkish Daily News" on 11 December. LF[05] . . . AND TIES WITH IRANIn an interview with Turan on 10 December, Aliev denied that Azerbaijan's relations with Iran have recently cooled, but expressed his displeasure at the flourishing ties between Iran and Armenia. Aliev said that during his 9 December meeting with Iranian President Muhammed Khatami, "we agreed on the necessity to develop relations in all spheres." Aliev added, however, that he could not predict whether Iran would drop its objections to dividing the Caspian Sea into national sectors. But he argued that "there is no alternative" to all Caspian littoral states doing so. He said no negotiations have yet begun on the possibility of building an export pipeline for Azerbaijan's Caspian oil via Iran. Aliev also met on 10 December with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who affirmed that "reliance on Islam is the prerequisite for the success of any government in Azerbaijan," IRNA reported. LF[06] AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION PARTY SPLITSSeveral former prominent members of the Musavat Party, including former Prosecutor-General Ikhtiar Shirinov, on 10 December announced the creation of a new opposition party named National Congress, Turan reported. The defectors from Musavat have accused the party's leader, Isa Gambar, for his allegedly authoritarian manner, and have demanded a review of his role and that of former president Abulfaz Elchibey in the collapse of the Popular Front leadership in June, 1993. In an interview with RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service, however, Gambar said that the split in his party's ranks was triggered by the offer by President Heidar Aliev of government posts to Shirinov and a second former Musavat party member. LF[07] RUSSIAN BORDER GUARDS TO REDUCE TAJIK CONTINGENTThe commander of the Russian Border Guards, Colonel-General Andrei Nikolaev, announced in Moscow on 10 December that border guard forces in Tajikistan would be cut, ITAR-TASS reported. Though Nikolaev noted the cut from 16,000 to 14,500 would be "insignificant," he also said the role of the guards had changed with the establishment of peace in Tajikistan. He said their role is now focused on narcotics interdiction. The general added that the position of forces still in Tajikistan allows a rapid reinforcement of any area which may be threatened. BP[08] UZBEK SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT IN MOSCOWThe speaker of Uzbekistan's parliament, Erkin Khalilov, was in Moscow on 10 December and met with top officials of the Russian government, ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported. Khalilov discussed inter-parliamentary relations with Russia's Federation Council speaker Yegor Stroev. Stroev encouraged a more visible Uzbek presence in the Russian market and extended an invitation for Uzbekistan to send a representative to future CIS Inter- Parliamentary Assembly meetings though Uzbekistan is not a member. Khalilov also met with Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin to consult on the latter's trip to Uzbekistan at the end of December and next year's exchange of presidential visits. Khalilov also saw Foreign Minister Yevgenii Primakov. The two reviewed CIS relations and the situation in Central Asia. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] NANO'S CALL FOR MORE ITALIAN INVOLVEMENT IN ALBANIA...Prime Minister Fatos Nano told the Italian daily "La Repubblica" on 10 December that the Albanian government welcomes the presence of Italian specialists in the Albanian ministries to help promote reforms. Nano was quoted by "Koha Jone" as saying that "we would be ready to return to being an Italian protectorate if that would guarantee us a faster integration into Europe." He added, however, that "our position is that of partners, not of a colony." FS[10] ...BRINGS DEMAND FOR HIS RESIGNATIONDemocratic Party spokesman Genc Pollo responded on 11 December to Nano's statement by calling him "an abnormal prime minister" and demanding his immediate resignation. Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee chief Sabri Godo said there will never be "an Italian protectorate for Albania as long as there are honest Albanians." Tirana, he added, wants "intensive relations" with Italy, but he warned against "any violation of the sovereignty of our country." Parts of Albania were an Italian protectorate from the time of formal independence in 1912 until just after World War I. Mussolini occupied Albania in 1939 after several years of a de facto protectorate over King Zog's Albania. PM[11] FRESH WESTERN INTEREST IN KOSOVOU.S. envoy Robert Gelbard said at the international conference on Bosnia in Bonn on 10 December that the Serb walkout to protest references to Kosovo in the final declaration only served to draw foreign attention to the Kosovo question (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 December 1997). German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel pointed out that the Kosovo issue involves the repression of an Albanian majority by a Serbian minority. He added that Germany has a strong interest in Kosovo because it has 140,000 asylum seekers from there. Kinkel also said that the international Contact Group, including Russia, supports the conference's final document, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" wrote. In Paris, a Foreign Ministry spokesman stated that it is not clear why the Serbs walked out because the final text is not directed against Belgrade but is rather aimed at helping it overcome its isolation. PM[12] WESTENDORP THREATENS TO SACK KRAJISNIKThe Bonn conference agreed on 10 December to expand the powers of Carlos Westendorp, the international community's chief representative in Bosnia. The Spanish diplomat will now be able to impose agreements on the three Bosnian parties and punish individuals who boycott sessions of joint institutions or who violate the Dayton agreements. Westendorp called the change in his mandate "a turning point" and threatened to sack Momcilo Krajisnik, the Serbian member of the joint presidency, unless Krajisnik stops blocking the functioning of joint institutions. PM[13] MIXED REACTIONS TO BONN DECLARATIONKrajisnik said on 10 December that the Serbs will not accept portions of the final declaration that they consider to be a violation of Dayton. He added that the Kosovo question affects all Serbs. Croatian Foreign Minister Mate Granic said that the outcome of the conference was essentially positive. Senior Muslim leader Ejup Ganic, however, told "The Guardian" that "these conferences don't bring much. The fact is that we [Muslims] are getting stronger, and the Serbs and the Croats are getting weaker. That's the reality." PM[14] SESELJ FOR COALITION WITH KARADZIC PARTYVojislav Seselj, the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party candidate for the Serbian presidency, said in the Bosnian town of Sokolac near Sarajevo on 10 December that the Bosnian branch of his party will form a coalition with the Serbian Democratic Party of Radovan Karadzic. He said that the two parties agree that it is necessary to, as he put it, prevent Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic from destroying the Bosnian Serb state. PM[15] U.S. SETS DOWN BOSNIAN OPTIONSU.S. representatives to NATO on 10 December presented other NATO delegations in Brussels with four options regarding a continued military presence in Bosnia. The options range from a complete withdrawal of all NATO forces, a reduced peacekeeping operation, keeping a presence equivalent to the current 30,000-strong SFOR, or an expanded operation with more troops on the ground in Bosnia. The international military presence in Bosnia in 1996 peaked at just more than 60,000 troops. Observers suggested that any NATO- led force after SFOR's mandate expires next June will probably number about 18,000. PM[16] GRENADE KILLS SERB REFUGEE IN SLAVONIAA grenade tossed into a cafe in Grabovac in eastern Slavonia killed an elderly Serb refugee from western Slavonia on 10 December. Local authorities arrested but then released a Croat who was reportedly carrying another grenade. U.N. officials said they will ask that the man be arrested again. In another incident, a grenade explosion damaged three cars in nearby Darda. PM[17] CROATIAN OPPOSITION AGAINST TUDJMAN'S AMENDMENTSOpposition deputies in the lower house on 10 December introduced a set of measures against President Franjo Tudjman's proposed constitutional amendments (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 November 1997). The deputies want the constitution to identify Croatia's ethnic minorities by name and oppose any constitutional ban on Croatian membership in new Balkan or Yugoslav federations, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Zagreb. Tudjman's amendments are nonetheless expected to pass easily. PM[18] SHELL EXPANDS IN CROATIA, GOODYEAR IN SLOVENIAThe Anglo-Dutch Shell company plans to open 40 service stations in Croatia over the next four years at a cost of $70 million, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Zagreb on 10 December. And in Kranj, Slovenia, the Goodyear company acquired a 60 percent interest in Slovenia's Sava rubber company. PM[19] SLOVENIAN PARLIAMENT REJECTS ANTI-COMMUNIST MOVEThe legislature voted 44-41 late on 10 December to turn down a motion condemning Slovenia's communist-era leadership. Parliament will now discuss a related measure aimed at barring former communists from office (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 November 1997). The bills, which the conservative opposition sponsored, are aimed at President Milan Kucan, Prime Minister Janez Drnovsek, and several other top leaders who held high posts in communist Yugoslavia. PM[20] ROMANIAN POLITICIANS SEARCH SOLUTION TO COALITION CRISISThe leadership of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic on 10 December decided that faction discipline will be imposed when the government regulation amending the 1995 Education Law comes to debate in the Chamber of Deputies. According to regulations, the different texts approved by the two chambers would then have to come before a mediation commission. President Emil Constantinescu on 10 December met with leaders of the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania and said he would refuse to promulgate a law that infringed on the right of the national minorities to set up independent universities and to have separate sections in existing universities. The president said the coalition must abide by the protocol signed on 3 December, but added that he supports the stipulation which makes the teaching of history and geography in the Romanian language obligatory in all schools, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS[21] ROMANIAN MINISTERS WITHDRAW SUPPORT OF MONARCHYAfter meeting with Prime Minister Victor Ciorbea on 10 December, the three members of his cabinet who earlier signed a declaration supporting the restoration of the constitutional monarchy (See "RFE/RL Newsline", 10 December 1997) said they "regretted" the step and pledged that "in future their statements will conform to the constitution and to the government's line," a press release of the government cited by RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau said. Separately, the press office of former King Michael in Versoix, Switzerland, released a statement saying, among other things, that marking 50 years since the monarch's enforced abdication should by no means "raise constitutional questions that could damage the stability of the country at this crucial moment in its history." The statement said Romania's priorities are "economic reconstruction, the consolidation of its political position and integration into European structures." MS[22] ROMANIAN FINANCE MINISTER: "NO FREE LUNCHES."Romania's new Minister of Finance, Daniel Daianu, on 10 December told Reuters that 1998 is still going to be a year of austerity and that "post- communist free lunches" are over. He said it was unrealistic to expect any economic growth for at least six months from now. In other news, a Soviet-made MiG-21 fighter crashed near Bucharest on 10 December. The crew managed to eject safely. This is the 17th crash involving a Soviet-made military plane in the past seven years. MS[23] DUMA DEPUTIES AGAINST RATIFICATION OF RUSSIAN- MOLDOVAN TREATYDeputies from several committees of the Russian State Duma on 10 December recommended that the Duma refuse to ratify the 1990 basic treaty with Moldova, Infotag reported. They said that since 1992 two states "have been de facto existing" in Moldova and Moldovan sovereignty "does not apply to the Transdniester territory." They also said that NATO's expansion eastwards makes the presence of Russian troops in the Transdniester one that "meets the strategic interests of Russia" in the region. They recommended that President Boris Yeltsin work for a "redefinition of the status of relations between Transdniester and the Moldovan Republic" and only afterwards conclude a new treaty with Moldova. The deputies also recommended that the government immediately open a consulate in Tiraspol. MS[24] BLACK SEA ECONOMIC COOPERATION PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY IN CHISINAUAddressing the 10th session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation in Chisinau on 10 December, President Petru Lucinschi called on member countries to coordinate economic and commercial legislation and to transform the organization into one with a "well-defined judicial status," RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. He said such steps would facilitate relations with other regional, European and international organizations, as well as with international financial institutions. Lucinschi also called on member states to set up a free trade zone and said that they could play a major role in the exploitation and transportation of Caspian Sea oil. The Assembly concludes its meeting on 11 December. Petre Roman, chairman of the Romanian Senate, is to be elected assembly chairman for the year 1998, replacing Moldova's Dumitru Motpan. MS[25] ETHNIC TURKISH PARTY WITHDRAWS SUPPORT FROM BULGARIAN GOVERNMENTThe Union of National Salvation, which is dominated by the Turkish ethnic Movements for Rights and Freedom (DPS), on 10 December formally withdrew its support from Prime Minister Ivan Kostov's government, RFE/RL's Sofia bureau reported. The DPS, which controls 19 seats in the 240-seat parliament, accused Kostov of pursuing "populist measures, rather than reforms." Kostov's Union of Democratic Forces still maintains a 137-seat majority in the legislature, where the opposition Socialist Party has 58 seats. In recent months, tension has been growing between Kostov and the DPS. On 9 December Kostov accused the DPS of protecting the interests of criminal groups. DPS deputy Osman Oktai recently accused Interior Minister Bogomil Bonev and Justice Minister Vassil Gotsev of taking part in the forcible assimilation of Turks in the 1980s. They denied the accusation. MS[26] BULGARIA PLEDGES TO REPAY DEBT TO POLANDPresident Petar Stoyanov on 10 December said Sofia will repay an outstanding $ 80 million debt to Poland, to clear obstacles to its joining the Central European Trade Agreement (CEFTA), Reuters reported. The debt dates back to 1989. One of the conditions for CEFTA membership is the clearing of bilateral debts. Stoyanov spoke to reporters after meeting his Polish counterpart Aleksander Kwasniewski, who arrived on a two-day visit to Sofia. Kwasniewski pledged Polish support for Bulgaria's quest to join CEFTA, NATO and the European Union. MS[C] END NOTE[27] ARE RUSSIAN NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS SAFE?By Paul Goble The American intelligence community has concluded that the Russian government currently has reasonably effective control over its stockpile of nuclear warheads and missiles.But at the same time, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency said, Washington is "very concerned" about the status of Russian safeguards against the illegal sale of the components needed to manufacture such weapons. In a report released in early December by the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, George Tenet said that he did not believe that Moscow had lost control over any warheads or nuclear missiles, although the reason he gave for that is not entirely encouraging. "We do not believe that Russian ICBMs are as vulnerable to theft or sales as missile components," Tenet said. "A conspiracy of many government officials would be necessary to purloin an entire ICBM." Instead, Tenet said his institution feared that Russia might be losing control over the components needed to make a bomb, including large and widely dispersed stores of plutonium and highly enriched uranium. Tenet argued in the report that Russia's "continuing social and economic difficulties, corruption in the military and the potential activities of organized crime groups" put government control of these materials at risk. And he pointed out that "Russia's ability to enforce export controls remains problematic because of resource shortages, weak customs enforcement and corruption." Tenet's report is likely to trigger a new debate on how to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons after the Cold War. At the very least, it seems certain to introduce a new clarity into just what the problem is. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union six years ago, Western analysts and governments have debated whether Moscow has been able to control the nuclear weapons and materials on its territory. In general, that discussion has focused on the question of whether the Russian government has control of nuclear weapons rather than on whether it has control of the nuclear materials needed to make weapons. That debate flared anew most recently when Aleksandr Lebed, a former Russian general and aide to Boris Yeltsin, made a dramatic suggestion that Moscow might have lost track of dozens of "suitcase-sized" nuclear weapons. Tenet's report suggests that Lebed's claims are almost certainly untrue. But if that conclusion is reassuring, Tenet's discussion of Moscow's gradual loss of certain control over the components of nuclear weapons is frightening in the extreme. The CIA report notes that there are some 1,200 tons of highly enriched uranium and 200 tons of plutonium stored in a large number of sites spread across the Russian Federation. Because producing such materials is the hardest part of building a bomb and because only a few pounds of either substance are needed to make one, any loss of control over even a small part of such stockpiles could quickly lead to disaster. Obviously, both Russia and the entire world have a vested interest in making sure that the Russian authorities maintain effective control over such materials. But how that is to be done remains very much an open question. In contrast to nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles, the movement of such materials is far more difficult to monitor and thus extraordinarily difficult to prevent -- especially in a country as troubled as Russia now is. Tenet's report may now prompt both Moscow and the West to explore some new means of making sure that the safeguards over nuclear materials are just as effective as those over nuclear weapons. If that does not happen, his report strongly implies, the dangers of future proliferation of weapons of mass destruction will only increase. 11-12-97 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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