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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 174, 97-12-08Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 1, No. 174, 8 December 1997CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN FRONTIER DISAGREEMENT CONTINUESGeorgian President Eduard Shevardnadze sent a letter to Russian President Yeltsin on 5 December protesting the unilateral decision to move a Russian frontier post 1 kilometer into Georgian territory, Russian agencies reported. Shevardnadze called for the immediate resumption of bilateral talks on the demarcation of the border, but the Georgian Foreign Ministry issued a statement the same day arguing that the border demarcation commission should not resume its work until the post is moved back to its original position. On 6 December, Russian border guards used force against some 50 young Georgian demonstrators who had begun a protest demonstration at the frontier two days earlier. The same day, the Russian Foreign Minister issued a statement condemning allegedly biased pronouncements by Georgian officials that reflect "an openly nihilistic view" of bilateral relations, according to ITAR-TASS. LF[02] OSCE MINSK GROUP CHAIRMEN IN YEREVAN ...Following talks on 3-4 December in Stepanakert with the leadership of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, the three co-chairmen of the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group returned to Yerevan to meet with President Levon Ter-Petrossyan, ArmenPress reported. They evaluated the current stage of the peace process prior to the 18-19 December OSCE foreign ministers' meeting in Copenhagen. LF[03] ...AND BAKUOn 5 December, the co-chairmen met in Baku with Foreign Minister Hasan Hasanov and President Heidar Aliev,. who expressed his regret that it appears unlikely a settlement of the Karabakh conflict will be reached before year's end, Interfax reported. Aliev said the most recent OSCE peace plan, which calls for a phased solution to the conflict, should be approved by all parties to the conflict. Nagorno-Karabakh has rejected that plan and continues to insist on a "package" solution. Arriving in Paris on 7 December for an official visit, Armenian Prime Minister and former Nagorno- Karabakh President Robert Kocharyan similarly said he supports a "package" solution rather than the "phased" approach, AFP reported. LF[04] ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT POSTPONES FURTHER BUDGET DEBATEFollowing discussions that lasted three days, the National Assembly on 5 December voted to postpone a vote on the 1998 draft budget until after 20 December, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Most factions have expressed reservations about the draft, including the majority Hanrapetutytun faction, which objects in particular to a provision enabling the government to spend an unspecified sum at its discretion on "emergency situations." Finance and Economy Minister Armen Darbinian rejected the argument that Armenia needs a budget that functions "like clockwork," arguing that the country's economy does not yet do so, ArmenPress reported. Darbinian also warned that by the end of 1998, Armenia's foreign debt will reach the maximum limit of 50 per cent of GDP. In 1996, that debt amounted to 34.9 percent and is estimated to total 46.3 percent in 1997. LF[05] ARMENIAN PREMIER MEETS WITH MEDIA REPRESENTATIVESKocharyan met in Yerevan on 4 December with editors and other media representatives to discuss demands made during the one-day media strike on 3 December, Armenian agencies reported. Kocharyan reasoned that it is not feasible to exempt the press from payment of taxes since that could lead to "intractable violations." But he did say he will propose that the parliament include in the 1998 budget a provision on financial aid for the media, to which the editors agreed. Kocharyan said he had been informed that media outlets were already exempt from paying rent for the premises they occupy in addition to maintenance charges. That exemption was one of the strikers' demands. LF[06] GEORGIA, TURKMENISTAN FAIL TO REACH GAS AGREEMENTDuring his one-day visit to Ashgabat on 5 December, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze and his Turkmen counterpart, Saparmurat Niyazov, signed a cooperation agreement and reaffirmed their interest in "mutual partnership" with the aim of "overcoming economic difficulties", ITAR-TASS reported. The two sides failed, however, to negotiate the resumption of Turkmen gas supplies to Georgia. Those supplies were suspended in March 1997 because of Georgia's inability to pay outstanding debts totaling $465.2 million for gas imported since 1993. Although Georgia has agreed to begin repayments, the resumption of gas imports from Turkmenistan is precluded by Gazprom's refusal to allow Ashgabat to use its pipeline network. LF[07] WORLD BANK TO LEND $20 MILLION TO TAJIKISTANThe World Bank is preparing to lend Tajikistan $20 million over the next two months, ITAR-TASS reported on 7 December. The bank's board of directors will meet on 16 December to approve the first $10 million credit, which the government will use to pay off wage and pension arrears. The board will convene again in late January to approve another $10 million credit to help restore and maintain the communications and social infrastructure in the Karagetinskaya region. BP[08] EBRD, IFC TO GRANT LOAN TO KAZAKH STEEL COMPANYThe European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the International Finance Corporation are to issue loans worth $450 million to the Ispat- Karmet steel company in Karaganda to go toward upgrading equipment, Interfax reported. Representatives of the two financial organizations signed the relevant documents in Almaty on 5 December. The EBRD is loaning $285 million and the IFC the remainder, Ispat-Karmet will put up $300 million. BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] KARADZIC'S PARTY LOSES PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITYSpokesmen for the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which monitored the 22-23 November Bosnian Serb legislative elections, said in Sarajevo on 7 December that the hard-line Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) won 24 out of 83 seats, down from the 45 it held previously. The Serbian Radical Party (SRS), the SDS's main ally, raised its share from six seats to 15, but the SRS and the SDS have lost their joint legislative majority. Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic's newly formed Serbian People's League (SNS) will have 15 seats in that parliament and a small party allied to the SNS will have two. Muslim and Croatian parties won 18 mandates. Observers are speculating that a possible coalition is likely to include Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's Socialists, who hold nine seats and could hold the balance of power in the new legislature. PM[10] MOSTAR GETS MUSLIM MAYORThe Muslim-dominated Mostar town council elected Safet Orucevic as mayor on 5 December. Outgoing Mayor Ivica Prskalo, a Croat, became his deputy. Orucevic said his main task is to reunite the isolated, Muslim-held east Mostar and the Croat-held western half of the city. Muslims charge that local Croatian power structures treat Mostar as the capital of western Herzegovina, which is economically and politically dependent on Croatia. The Croats, in turn, accuse the Muslims of trying to drive Croats out of communities in central Bosnia that date back to the Middle Ages. PM[11] MILOSEVIC'S CANDIDATE LEADS IN SERBIAN VOTEPreliminary returns give Milan Milutinovic of the Milosevic- led coalition 1,573,392 votes in the 7 December Serbian presidential elections. The Radical Party's Vojislav Seselj has 1,182,171 votes, and the Serbian Renewal Movement's Vuk Draskovic 575,773. If election officials conclude that at least 50 percent of the electorate voted and that consequently the poll was valid, Milutinovic and Seselj will face each other in a runoff on 21 December. The 7 December vote marked the third time in as many months that Serbs went to the polls to select a president. The campaign for that ballot was characterized by voter apathy and an opposition boycott. Real power in Belgrade remains in Milosevic's hands. PM[12] KOSOVAR LEADER SAYS ELECTIONS NOT ALBANIANS' BUSINESSFehmi Agani, the deputy chairman of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), the main Kosovar political organization, told an RFE/RL correspondent in Pristina on 7 December that the Albanians did not take part in the vote because they do not recognize Serbia as their country. Agani added that the only elections as far as the Kosovars are concerned are the upcoming ones organized by their shadow state for the Kosovar presidency and parliament, which the Serbian authorities consider illegal. BETA news agency reported that many polling stations in predominantly Albanian areas of Kosovo did not open for the 7 December Serbian vote. PM[13] APPEAL FOR MORATORIUM ON KOSOVO VIOLENCEAdem Demaci, who heads the Kosovo Democratic Forum, which is second to the LDK in popular support, called for a three-month moratorium on violence following a series of shootings by the clandestine Kosovo Liberation Army (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 December 1997). Demaci also appealed to the Serbian authorities to suspend repressive measures in Kosovo for the same amount of time to help create an atmosphere conducive to dialogue. PM[14] MONTENEGRO BLAMES BELGRADE FOR ISOLATIONMontenegrin Deputy Prime Minister Miodrag Vukovic told the Slovenian daily "Vecer" of 7 December that Slovenian tourists have recently returned to Montenegro, despite what he called attempts by Serbian customs officials to delay their arrival. Vukovic added that the Montenegrin government will not allow Belgrade to interfere with Podgorica's desire to promote contacts with the outside world. And at a meeting of the Podgorica city council, supporters of outgoing President Momir Bulatovic voted to replace Mayor Mihailo Buric, who supports President-elect Milo Djukanovic, with Bulatovic loyalist Dragisa Prsic. PM[15] CROATIAN LIBERALS SPLITVlado Gotovac, who was defeated on 30 November in his bid to keep the chairmanship of the Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS), announced in Zagreb on 5 December that he will found a new party on 24 January (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 1 December 1997). On 6 December, Gotovac and his leading backers resigned from the HSLS, and the next day he apologized to voters for the months of public feuding between him and his rival Drazen Budisa, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Zagreb. PM[16] TUDJMAN, SERBS UPBEAT ON SLAVONIACroatian UN Ambassador Ivan Simonovic said in New York on 6 December that his government welcomes UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan's recent decision to end the UN's mandate in eastern Slavonia on 15 January. A UN police contingent will stay on for an additional six months at the request of both the Croatian government and the local Serbian authorities. Meanwhile in Zagreb, President Franjo Tudjman met with leading representatives of Croatia's Serbian minority, including Vojislav Stanimirovic from Vukovar and Milorad Pupovac from Zagreb. Tudjman promised to ensure what he called a normal life for all citizens in eastern Slavonia. Upon returning to Vukovar, Stanimirovic called his talks with Tudjman most encouraging. PM[17] ALBANIAN MAFIA HAS SPREAD TO STATE INSTITUTIONSAgim Tirana, a criminal investigator for the Albanian government, told "Gazeta Shqiptare" of 6 December that illegal business dealings have become so widespread because mafia groups have penetrated state institutions. Tirana added that the mafia has close links with organized crime abroad. He argued that the only way to break the power of the mafia is to hire thoroughly professional people to work for the police, the state prosecutor's office, and key ministries. Tirana also pleaded for more modern crime-fighting equipment and noted that the mafia can afford the best technology. PM[18] ROMANIAN PREMIER APPOINTED PARTY DEPUTY CHAIRMANVictor Ciorbea on 5 December was appointed deputy chairman of the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD). The measure is aimed at strengthening Ciorbea's authority in the government and over the PNTCD's parliamentary faction. According to the PNTCD's statutes, the decision must be endorsed by the party's Permanent Delegation, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported (see also "End Note" below). In other news, the Alliance for Romania party, which in June split from the Party of Social Democracy in Romania, has elected former Foreign Minister Teodor Melescanu as its chairman at the party's first National Convention in Bucharest on 6-7 December. MS[19] U.S., ROMANIA STAGE MILITARY EXERCISEA 10-day military exercise called Phiblex-97 began in the Black Sea port of Constanta on 5 December, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Some 1, 600 U.S. and 150 Romanian sailors are participating.[20] MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT ON ELECTORAL LAWPetru Lucinschi on 6 December promulgated the electoral law passed by the parliament in November (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 November 1997) but also expressed misgivings about that legislation, BASA-press reported. Lucinschi said that the system of proportional representation in a single, nationwide constituency is "undemocratic" because the party lists are drawn up by the political parties themselves and the electorate is thus deprived of choosing from among "real candidates." He said this system has brought about "a deep and dangerous rift between the electorate and the deputies representing it in the legislature." Lucinschi added that the majority of voters would consider a change to a majoritarian system to be "proof of a real democracy." MS[21] VAN DEN BROEK ON EU PROSPECTS OF BULGARIA, ROMANIAIn an interview with the weekly "168 chasa," European Commissioner Hans van den Broek said Bulgaria and Romania still have to make progress on the road to reform before they can begin negotiations for EU membership, Mediafax reported on 5 December, citing AFP. He noted that reforms in Bulgaria and Romania were launched only after their present governments came to power, adding that citizens in the two countries should not blame the EU for their "own political and economic past." He concluded by saying that the problem is not "if" the two countries will join the EU but "when." MS[C] END NOTE[22] A NEW BEGINNING FOR ROMANIA'S GOVERNMENT?by Michael ShafirVictor Ciorbea's 2 December reshuffle of his cabinet was hardly unexpected. In fact, a reorganization of the government had been in the offing for nearly two months. The postponement was symptomatic of what had made the reshuffle necessary in the first place: a decision-making paralysis induced by the incapability to heed the primary rule for a functioning coalition-- namely, bargaining and compromise recognized as a legitimate endeavor. In the case of Romania, the difficulty of democratic apprenticeship is exacerbated by the absence of a political tradition of compromise. Romania had had no coalition government before communism was imposed on the country. Nor did it have the experience of political bargaining that emerged in other former communist countries ( Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland) as an outcome of the "round-table" negotiations that either preceded or shortly followed the fall of the communist regime. Instead of collaborating in the implementation of a much- needed reform program to which they had agreed, the coalition partners have tried to impose their views on the others. This has often meant attempting to impose their own people at the head of the structures tasked with carrying out reform. To complicate matters, Ciorbea's team is not merely a coalition; rather, it is a "coalition of coalitions" since each of its three main components--the Democratic Convention of Romania (CDR), the Social Democratic Union (USD), and the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania--is an alliance of different political persuasions. This makes bargaining and compromise even more difficult, since both must take place at three levels: the party, the parliamentary faction, and the government itself. Hence, the constant public bickering among coalition members, leading to paralysis. Microstabilization of the economy has not followed the macrostabilization achieved by the government at the outset of its term as a result of the liberalization of prices and the exchange rate. Restructuring and privatization began encountering serious difficulties owing to an inability to compromise on legislation. One of the outcomes was insecurity among potential foreign investors. Hopes of quickly closing the gap between Romania and other countries that had earlier embarked on reform began to fade. The reshuffle is an attempt to deal with that problem. If it is to achieve its purpose, the new government must, above all, instill discipline among its members and give coherence to the cabinet as a whole. Ministers will have to stop playing to different tunes and the factions that make up the parliamentary majority will have to ensure discipline among their own members. Finally, the authority of the premier himself will have to be increased, since until now Ciorbea has been more of a mediator than a leader. There are indications that some lessons have been learned. To enhance his authority within the National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD), Ciorbea was made a party deputy chairman on 5 December. Several days earlier, he had told journalists that in the future, ministers will have to stop playing "infantile games" with the press and adhere to the rules of collective government responsibility. If they failed to do so, either they would "find themselves out of the cabinet" or he would resign, Ciorbea threatened. Whether such warnings are sufficient remains to be seen. The newly established Ministry of Privatization is meant to overcome some of the dysfunctions. The portfolio is held by former presidential counselor Valentin Ionescu, a PNTCD member. But the Democratic Party, the main component of the USD, made no secret of the fact that it would have liked that ministry. More bickering ahead, perhaps? The CDR paid the heaviest toll in the reshuffle. Minister of Reform Ulm Spineanu, Education Minister Virgil Petrescu, and Health Minister Stefan Dragulescu--all of whom are members of the PNTCD, one of the main components of the CDR--were replaced by ministers with no party affiliation (Ilie Serbanescu, Andrei Marga, and Ion Victor Bruckner, respectively). Finance Minister Mircea Ciumara of the PNTCD took over the industry and commerce portfolio, making room for yet another independent, Daniel Daianu, at the Finance Ministry. This speaks volumes for the managerial capabilities of a party that boasted it had 15,000 members ready to assume responsibility of all governmental structures. Is the PNTCD caucus likely to gracefully accept the humiliation or will there be revolt in its ranks? The other main component of the CDR, the National Liberal Party (PNL), came out of the reshuffle only slightly better off than the PNTCD. It saw the departure of the influential Calin Popescu-Tariceanu from Industry and Commerce Ministry while several of its ministers were replaced by other PNL members. There are already indications that the PNL is dissatisfied with the reshuffle. If the new government is unable to instill discipline among its ministers and its supporters within the parliament, the future of not only the cabinet but also the country's reform process will be at stake. 08-12-97 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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