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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 148, 97-10-29Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 1, No. 148, 29 October 1997CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] SIRADEGHIAN ELECTED TO ARMENIAN PARLIAMENTVano Siradeghian, the mayor of Yerevan and the controversial chairman of the ruling Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh), won the 26 October parliamentary by-election in Hrazdan with 56 percent of the vote, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported . Communist Party candidate Ashot Mikaelian polled 36 percent and independent candidate Ruben Yegorian, considered Siradeghian's main challenger, only 7.5 percent. Voter turnout was some 60 percent. Yegorian, whose elder brother Eduard recently quit the HHSh to form an opposition parliamentary faction, told RFE/RL the election was unfair and that he will submit a list of alleged irregularities to election officials. An unusually large number of senior government officials and police were present at the polling stations.[02] AZERBAIJAN LINKS CIS INTEGRATION TO KARABAKH CONFLICTAzerbaijan will not participate in any attempt to achieve greater integration within the CIS until a "just solution" of the Karabakh conflict is reached, Interfax reported on 27 October, quoting a senior government source in Baku. Saying that all CIS member states should be regarded as equal, the official accused Russia of considering the commonwealth as an organization superior to its individual members. He also rejected the proposal to dispatch a CIS peacekeeping force to Nagorno-Karabakh.[03] POSSIBLE OBSTACLES TO AZERBAIJAN OIL TRANSITSpeaking on NTV on 27 October, Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Boris Berezovskii said the beginning of oil shipments from Azerbaijan through the Baku-Grozny-Novorossiisk pipeline is a "shared victory" for Russia and Chechnya and a "stability factor" in Chechnya. But he warned that relations between Moscow and Grozny are still "in crisis." Russian First Deputy Fuel and Energy Minister Sergei Kirienko similarly warned that the agreement between Moscow and Grozny on the tariffs Chechnya receives for the transit of oil is valid only until the end of 1997, according to Interfax. The transit of oil through the pipeline began on 25 October but was halted the next day for 48 hours to coordinate pumping pressure, which differs between the Azerbaijani and Chechen sectors of the pipeline, Turan reported on 28 October.[04] UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT IN GEORGIALeonid Kuchma, who in Tbilisi for a two-day official visit, met with his Georgian counterpart, Eduard Shevardnadze, on 28 October to discuss boosting political and economic cooperation, Russian agencies reported . The two presidents signed a "Declaration of Two," intended as a "counterbalance to unions and alliances within the CIS," according to "Izvestiya" on 29 October. Kuchma dismissed the CIS peacekeeping operation in Abkhazia as "unproductive" and repeated his offer to send Ukrainian peacekeeping troops to the region. He also stressed Ukraine's interest in purchasing Caspian oil from Azerbaijan and in the development of the Traseca transport project linking Central Asia, the Transcaucasus, and Europe.[05] FIGHTING ON TAJIK-UZBEK FRONTIERFour Tajik border guards were wounded during the night from 27 to 28 October when their border post was fired on from neighboring Uzbek territory, Russian media reported. Earlier, Uzbek Foreign Ministry spokesman Zafar Ruziev denied Russian media reports that elements within the Uzbek military were aiding and abetting Tajik anti-government forces (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 October 1997). On 28 October, a Tajik government delegation headed by Deputy Premier Abdurrahim Azimov was in Tashkent to discuss the incidents. Tajik Presidential Guard commander Gafor Mirzoev told RFE/RL the next day that his troops have "neutralized" the group responsible for the 27 October attack near Tursunzode. Meanwhile, a Russian State Duma delegation visiting Dushanbe told ITAR-TASS that the Russian peacekeeping forces currently deployed along the Tajik-Afghan frontier should remain there as their withdrawal would mean "we lose Central Asia for good," ITAR-TASS reported.[06] KAZAKH FORMER PREMIER RESURFACES IN PRINTIn an article published in "Finansovye izvestiya" on 28 October, Akezhan Kazhegeldin argued that a degree of state control over the economy is imperative during the initial transition from a planned to a free market economy. But intervention should be limited to "vitally important areas of production," such as housing and food supplies, he commented. Kazhegeldin warned against the emergence of profit-oriented "monopolistic oligarchies" created by a fusion of private and state interests, which he said could cause "chronic instability." In mid-October, Kazhegeldin resigned as prime minister, allegedly on health grounds. President Nursultan Nazarbayev subsequently praised his macroeconomic stabilization policies but slammed his failure to reform the agricultural, industrial, and social sectors.[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DECIDE FOR BALKING BOSNIAN LEADERS?Carlos Westendorp, the international community's chief representative in Bosnia, said in Sarajevo on 28 October that major world powers are growing impatient because the Serbian, Croatian, and Muslim members of the joint presidency have not agreed on basic issues such as joint citizenship, a common currency, and state symbols. Hans van den Broek, the EU's commissioner for external affairs, added that the international community may "impose certain measures on the basis of [the] Dayton" agreements if the deadlock continues. Observers noted the Serbs have been the main obstacle to reaching a decision. The governing Bosnian Serb party does not believe in a unified Bosnia and would prefer to partition the country.[08] MAJOR U.S. ARMS SHIPMENT ARRIVES IN BOSNIAA U.S. ship delivered some 100 155mm howitzers to Bosnian army authorities at Croatia's port of Ploce on 28 October. Washington sent the artillery pieces in addition to the $100 million-worth of military aid it has promised to the mainly Muslim and Croatian army under the "Train and Equip" program. Critics in western Europe and Russia say that the program upsets the military balance in Bosnia. Washington, for its part, argues there is no balance because the Bosnian Serbs' military structures are still closely integrated with Yugoslavia's.[09] BOMB HITS BOSNIAN SERB POLITICAL OFFICEA bomb damaged the headquarters of the ultra-nationalist Serbian Radical Party in Bijeljina on 28 October. There were no injuries. The Belgrade- based Radicals are led by Vojislav Seselj, who led paramilitary units during the wars in Croatia and Bosnia. One week earlier, an explosion in Bijeljina blew up a television transmitter used by hard-liners ("RFE/RL Newsline," 21 October 1997). Meanwhile near Muslim-held Travnik, a sniper killed one ethnic Croat and wounded two more on 27 October. Two Croats were killed by unknown assailants there in August.[10] MUSLIMS ACCUSE MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENT OF HATE-MONGERINGThe Muslim National Council of Sandzak, which represents Yugoslavia's Muslim population, has accused Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic of spreading "outright hatred and hostility" against Yugoslavia's ethnic Muslims, BETA reported on 28 October. The Council charged that Bulatovic and his backers have repeatedly used inflammatory language at mass meetings to blame Muslims for Bulatovic's loss of the Montenegrin elections on 5 October. The resolution added that state-run Serbian media have helped Bulatovic to spread ethnic hatred.[11] SKINHEADS INJURE TWO ROMA IN BELGRADEA group of skinheads severely beat a Romani brother and sister in the Serbian capital on 27 October. Political opposition groups and non- governmental organizations condemned the attack and blamed the government of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic for creating what they called a growing atmosphere of intolerance. The attack came ten days after Belgrade skinheads killed a Romani teenager, which observers called the first murder of a Rom by Serbian skinheads in a hate-crime (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 October 1997). Romani spokesmen say skinheads have harassed Roma in Yugoslavia for years.[12] CROATIAN RIGHTS GROUP ACCUSES TUDJMAN OF RACISMSpokesmen for the Croatian Helsinki Committee said in Zagreb on 28 October that President Franjo Tudjman made blatantly racist remarks at a meeting of the youth organization of his Croatian Democratic Community two days earlier. The committee charged that Tudjman violated the Croatian Constitution and international agreements when he allegedly referred to the "genetically programmed internal and external enemies of the Croatian state."[13] MAHATHIR WANTS TO JOIN SLOVENIA ON BOSNIAN MARKETMalaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad told his Slovenian counterpart, Janez Drnovsek, in Ljubljana on 28 October that his country is interested in closer cooperation with Slovenia, particularly with its metal industry. He added that Malaysia regards Slovenia's port of Koper as very important for doing business in central Europe. Mahathir also suggested that Slovenia and Malaysia cooperate on the Bosnian market. Kuala Lumpur enjoys close relations with Sarajevo and provided military, economic, and diplomatic support to the Muslims during the Bosnian war.[14] ALBANIAN DEMOCRATS END HUNGER STRIKE AFTER COMPROMISE OVER TVFour Democratic Party legislators ended their hunger strike on 28 October after their party reached a compromise with the government coalition at a meeting of the all-party parliamentary media commission (see "RFE/RL Newsline" 22 October 1997). The parties agreed that state radio and television will devote air time to the activities of opposition parties proportional to the percentage of votes each of those parties won in the last elections. The commission also agreed to establish an independent television monitoring body in cooperation with local NGOs, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Tirana.[15] DEMOCRATIC PARTY KEEP VETERAN LEADERSThe Democratic Party's National Council has elected a 20-member steering committee, "Rilindja Demokratike" reported on 28 October. Party chairman Sali Berisha will have Genc Pollo, his former presidential press spokesman, as his deputy. Ridvan Bode, another party leader who was prominent in Berisha's government, is secretary-general. Berisha said he wants to begin a dialogue with other conservative parties, stressing that "anti-communism unites us." Observers noted, however, that most other conservative parties are unlikely to accept overtures from the Democratic Party as long as Berisha is its leader.[16] OWNER OF ALBANIAN PYRAMID GETS FIVE YEARSA Tirana court on 27 October sentenced Maksude Kadena, owner of the Sude pyramid investment scheme, to five years in prison. Kadena was arrested and charged with fraud in January, one month after her pyramid scheme collapsed. Investigators said some 20,000 people invested a total of $60 million in the scheme. Kadena will have to serve only a total of three years and four months because she turned herself in under an amnesty program.[17] ROMANIAN 'REVOLUTIONARY' SETS HIMSELF ABLAZEOne of the "revolutionaries" on hunger strike in Bucharest set himself ablaze on 29 October, Mediafax reported. He was taken to the hospital but refused medical care and left the premises shortly after. The "revolutionaries" belonging to the group headed by Dan Iosif are threatening to follow his example, with one striker setting himself on fire each day. On 28 October, the "revolutionaries" belonging to the UNORD association ended their hunger strike following the signing of a protocol with representatives of the ruling coalition. The protocol provides for setting up commissions composed of coalition and UNORD representatives to review the government-proposed amendments to the law on benefits for the "revolutionaries."[18] YUGOSLAV DEFENSE MINISTER IN ROMANIAPavle Bulatovic and his Romanian counterpart, Victor Babiuc, met in Bucharest on 27 October and signed a military cooperation agreement, RFE/RL's bureau in the Romanian capital reported. Bulatovic emphasized that the accord is not directed against any other state. He also met with Foreign Minister Adrian Severin and the chairmen of the parliamentary Defense, Public Order, and National Security Commissions.[19] FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN ROMANIAThe Agency for Development on 27 October announced that foreign investment in the country since 1990 totals $3.4 billion. An RFE/RL correspondent in Bucharest quoted economic analysts as saying this amount is far lower than in other former communist countries. Also on 27 October, visiting USAID director Brian Atwood said the U.S. will increase assistance for Romanian economic reforms above the $35 million granted in 1997. He also said USAID intends to set up in Romania an information center on accelerating privatization.[20] RUSSIAN STATE DUMA SPEAKER IN MOLDOVAGennadii Seleznev, who is on a three-day visit to Moldova, said after talks with President Petru Lucinschi on 28 October that Russian parliamentary factions will finish examining the basic treaty with Moldova in mid- November. He said he that he believes the treaty, initialed in 1990, will be ratified by the end of 1997. Chairman of the Transdniester Supreme Soviet Grigorii Marakutsa told journalists after his meeting with Seleznev in Tiraspol that the separatists are opposed to the ratification of a document worked out seven years earlier, before the split between Tiraspol and Chisinau. He also said Tiraspol wants to participate in the drafting of a new treaty together with Russia "and Moldova," RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported.[21] BULGARIA WANTS TO KEEP KOZLODUY OPERATINGThe government has appealed to international lenders to agree to the continuation of operations at the aging Kozloduy nuclear power plant, citing economic hardships, RFE/RL's Sofia bureau reported on 27 October. In 1993, Bulgaria agreed to close four of the six units at the plant by the end of 1997 in exchange for a $26 million loan.[22] BULGARIA ADMITS ROLE IN INTERNATIONAL DRUG TRAFFICKINGAn Interior Ministry official on 28 October said more than 1,600 Bulgarian citizens have been involved in drug smuggling and 112 Bulgarian firms used as "covers" for international drug trafficking, Reuters reported. Bozhidar Popov told journalists that international criminal groups are involved in those operations. He also said growing drug consumption in Bulgaria is contributing to crime, including murders.[C] END NOTE[23] WHEN STATES LOSE CONTROLby Paul GobleDiplomats have never found it easy to resolve conflicts. But in recent years, they have faced an ever more daunting obstacle to making peace: the increasing ability of individuals and groups to sabotage whatever accords their governments may agree to. Nowhere has this problem been greater than in post-communist conflict zones such as the southern Caucasus and the former Yugoslavia. In both regions, the power and authority of political leaders are relatively weak, many individuals and groups in the population are well armed, and many of those groups enjoy the direct or covert support of other governments that benefit from conflict situations. Such factors reduce the effectiveness of traditional diplomacy except when it is backed by force. But even when they have not prevented diplomatic negotiations, they have defined how governments choose to participate in talks. Indeed, those factors are probably more important in determining what diplomacy can achieve and what it cannot than is the "extreme nationalism" that outsiders usually invoke to explain why no agreements seem to be possible. But because representatives of major outside powers sometimes do not take those factors into account when they attempt to intervene diplomatically, they often unintentionally lead the governments directly involved to behave in ways that preclude rather than produce peace. Efforts by the international diplomatic community to resolve the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh are perhaps the clearest example of that predicament. Neither Baku nor Yerevan is fully in control of its own population, much of which is deeply committed to prolonging the conflict until their particular goals are achieved. Groups in both countries have been willing to undermine efforts to reach agreements in the past, sometimes by passive resistance and sometimes by the use of violence, including attacks on individuals and on economic infrastructure such as pipelines and power networks. Nor does Yerevan have much leverage over the Karabakh Armenian leadership, which has enormous resources, including the possibility of violence, to undermine any agreement. As a result, some members of the Armenian leadership have been reluctant to agree to anything that might either cost them popular support or ignite violence against themselves. Some Azerbaijanis, for their part, have been willing to support authoritarian measures by their own government in order to create a situation whereby an agreement might be possible, one that would allow oil to flow and to enrich their country. The fundamental disagreement between the three conflict parties on the relative merits of a "phased" as opposed to a "package" solution to the conflict further complicates the international diplomatic effort to achieve a lasting peace in the region. Meanwhile, the situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina suggests that, even in an age when non-governmental groups are playing an increasingly large role, the diplomacy of states can achieve a great deal if it is backed by another major resource of today's nation state: the use of force. NATO-led troops on the ground in Bosnia-Herzegovina have ended most of the violence and given both diplomats and governments there the possibility of dealing with the situation in a non-violent way. This application of force is, of course, by no means certain to solve the situation in the former Yugoslavia. But it has restricted the activities of independent individuals and groups and thus given the states a chance to act in a more traditional way. The contrast between the cases of the southern Caucasus and the former Yugoslavia has highlighted the importance of building strong political institutions. Unless they exist or have the chance to grow with some protection from outside, individuals and groups living inside those states may make it impossible for anyone to make peace and move on to a better future. 29-10-97 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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