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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 84, 97-07-30Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 1, No. 84, 30 July 1997CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] RUSSIA UPS ANTE OVER ABKHAZ PEACEKEEPERSThe CIS peacekeeping force deployed along the border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia will be withdrawn unless Georgia and Abkhazia formally request that its mandate be prolonged after it expires on 31 July, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Valerii Nesterushkin told ITAR-TASS on 29 July. According to "Nezavisimaya gazeta" the next day, the peacekeepers are already training for the withdrawal. The Georgian parliament has rejected a proposal by opposition deputies to convene an emergency session to discuss the peacekeepers' continued presence and has begun its summer recess, "Rossiiskaya gazeta" reported. The chairman of the Abkhaz parliament in exile, Tamaz Nadareishvili, said that the 3,000 ethnic Georgian former Abkhaz police who have been sent to western Georgia will not automatically cross the border into Abkhazia's Gali Raion if the peacekeepers withdraw, "Svobodnaya Gruziya" reported on 29 July.[02] AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT IN U.S.Heidar Aliev, meeting with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan in New York on 28 July, discussed ways to alleviate the plight of the Azeris driven from their homes during the Karabakh conflict. Annan expressed his support for the deployment of a multinational peacekeeping force under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, according to AFP.[03] TAJIK OPPOSITION UNHAPPY WITH DELAYS IN IMPLEMENTING AGREEMENTSThe leadership of the United Tajik Opposition has appealed to UN special envoy to Tajikistan Gerd Merrem to use his influence to pressure the Tajik government to adhere to agreements reached in Moscow in June, according to RFE/RL correspondents in Tajikistan. The 27 July session of the National Reconciliation Commission was postponed for "technical reasons," meaning the failure to find housing and office space for members of the UTO returning to Dushanbe to participate in the commission's work. UTO leader Said Abdullo Nuri, meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati on 29 July in Tehran, requested that Iran use its influence to accelerate government efforts at resolving the "technical problems." Iran is one of the guarantors of the Tajik peace process.[04] ANOTHER DEMONSTRATION IN KAZAKHSTANAbout 400 people gathered in the northern city of Kokchetau on 29 July to protest living conditions, ITAR-TASS reported. They called for an end to the reform process, which, they say, has had little effect in their area. The news agency reports that every fourth person in Kokchetau is without employment and that every third cannot pay for housing and utilities. Pensioners are only now receiving their March and April payments. The situation grew worse after Kokchetau Oblast was merged with Northern Kazakhstan Oblast earlier this year. Kokchetau city was subsequently deprived of the funding it had previously received as a regional center.[05] US COMPANY INVESTS IN KAZAKH POWERThe U.S. company A.E.S. Suntry Power has reached agreement with the Kazakh government on concession rights to the Shulbinsk and Ust-Kamenogorsk hydroelectric plants, Interfax reported on 29 July. The U.S. company plans to invest about $600 million in the plants, which, according to a Kazakh official, are in a "deplorable state." A.E.S. bought Kazakhstan's Ekibastuz thermal power plant in August 1996.[06] SHELL OIL SHOWS INTEREST IN TURKMEN HYDROCARBONSThe U.S. company Shell Oil has sent a letter to President Saparmurat Niyazov expressing the company's interest in participating in projects to develop Turkmenistan's "legendary" hydrocarbon resources, ITAR-TASS reported on 29 July. The letter also noted that, because of its geographical location, Turkmenistan was in the "unique position" to supply several markets. Shell also referred to the potential of Caspian Shelf fields. "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 30 July quoted Niyazov as saying that Turkmenistan intends to hold a tender in the U.S. for for exploitation of the disputed Kyapaz field of the Caspian the Turkmen call Serdar. Azerbaijani and Russian oil companies signed an agreement earlier in July on the joint exploitation of the deposit.[07] UZBEK ECONOMIC DATAPresident Islam Karimov announced on 29 July that in the first six months of this year, industrial output increased by 5.4 percent and agricultural production by 22.8 percent, Interfax reported. Transportation and communications operations rose by 1.8 percent, construction by 1 percent, retail commodity turnover by 13.5 percent, and services by 18.1 percent. Karimov also pointed out that while GDP was up by only 1.6 percent in 1996, it had already grown by 3.9 percent in the first six months of this year. Inflation decreased from 13 percent in December 1996 to 2.9 percent in May 1997 and consumer prices fell by 3.1 percent in June. While some international financial organizations predicted average monthly inflation at 7 percent, the rate for January to June 1997 was 3.5 percent.[08] PLAINTIFF IN KYRGYZ SLANDER CASE APPEALS TO SUPREME COURTThe Procurator's Office and plaintiff Dastan Sarygulov on 29 July appealed to the Supreme Court to enforce the original verdict against four journalists for the Kyrgyz weekly newspaper "Res Publica," according to RFE/RL correspondents in Bishkek. In May, two journalists for "Res Publica" were sentenced to 18 months in jail and two others barred from practicing journalism for the same period because of accusations printed against Sarygulov in their newspaper. The verdict against the journalists was overturned in June by a Bishkek court, which revoked the sentences of three of the journalists and ruled that editor-in-chief Zamira Sydykova would serve her sentence in a penal colony rather than in jail.[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] ALBANIAN GOVERNMENT WINS VOTE OF CONFIDENCEThe new parliament overwhelmingly endorsed the government of Prime Minister Fatos Nano on 29 July. After the vote, Nano invited the legislators to "build together our common European future... The best times for every Albanian and the nation lie in its future and not in the past." His two most urgent tasks are restoring law and order and revitalizing the economy. Some 20 people were killed by illegally owned weapons on 28 July alone. Gross domestic product continues to decline, while vast amounts of industrial equipment are smuggled out to Montenegro and sold as scrap. Inflation is expected to reach 50 percent by the end of the year, and the government deficit is also on the rise. Finance Minister Arben Malaj told the parliament on 29 July that the IMF will send a delegation to Albania in August to reach a stabilization agreement.[10] BIG SHAKEUP AT ALBANIAN INTERIOR MINISTRYInterior Minister Neritan Ceka's office announced in Tirana on 30 July that he has sacked several senior officials, including the criminal police head, the special forces director, the head of the border forces, and the director of the logistics department. Ceka said that the individuals involved are incompetent political appointees from the Democratic Party and will be replaced by "experts" whom the Democrats had fired earlier.[11] YUGOSLAV DEFENSE MINISTER CRITICIZES MONTENEGRIN AUTHORITIESPavle Bulatovic and officials of the Yugoslav Justice Ministry said in Belgrade on 29 July that Montenegrin Public Prosecutor Vladimir Susovic damaged Yugoslavia's interests and "struck a low blow" in linking Bulatovic to war crimes (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 July 1997). Neither Bulatovic nor the ministry, however, denied the charges that Bulatovic helped in the deportation of Muslims to Bosnian Serb territory, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Belgrade. Meanwhile in Podgorica, Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic rejected President Momir Bulatovic's charges that the authorities encouraged the stoning of a visiting Serbian delegation (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 July 1997).[12] SERBIAN AUTHORITIES HOUND LEADING INDEPENDENT DAILYDusan Malesevic, the director of the company that owns "Nasa Borba," wrote Serbian Prime Minister Mirko Marjanovic on 29 July that a $65,000 tax bill leveled against the company is "aimed at snuffing out 'Nasa Borba' and represents a threat to the independent media." "Nasa Borba" is Yugoslavia's leading independent daily and has been harassed by the authorities in the past. Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic said recently that the upcoming Serbian elections will be free and fair, while the Serbian authorities say that they have postponed planned measures against the independent media (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 July 1997). Independent human rights groups charge, however, that the authorities are proceeding with the shutdown of independent radio stations.[13] EX-YUGOSLAV WAR CRIMES UPDATECroatian Foreign Minister Mate Granic on 29 July said that Croatia will not turn over to the Hague-based war crimes tribunal documents that the court has subpoenaed. Granic charged that the tribunal has no right to make such demands on a sovereign state. He added that Croatia is not obliged to hand over information that "is vital to its national security." The documents in question relate to the Croatian-Muslim conflict in Bosnia. Meanwhile in The Hague, Sefkija Djidic, the Muslim police chief in Vitez, claimed at the trial of Croatian Gen. Tihomir Blaskic that Croatian snipers killed children and old people in that central Bosnian town in 1993. Court officials, for their part, announced that international experts have begun excavating a mass grave near Brcko in Bosnia. The grave is believed to contain the remains of Muslims and Croats killed by the Serbs at the Luka concentration camp.[14] CROATIAN GENERAL REPORTEDLY ARRESTEDGen. Ivan Korade has been arrested after rejecting his recent retirement by President Franjo Tudjman and refusing to hand over the command at Varazdin to his designated successor There has been no official confirmation of the story, which is reported by Western agencies. Korade is a hero of the 1995 campaign against Knin, but the Varazdin district prosecutor charged him in May with "violent behavior" in that town. Korade has refused to appear in court to answer the charges. And on the island of Hvar, fire fighters and local citizens succeeded on 29 July in containing a fire that has already destroyed over 6,000 acres of forests, olive trees, and vineyards. The authorities have declared two towns on the island disaster areas.[15] BOSNIAN ROUNDUPCarlos Westendorp, the international community's chief representative in Bosnia, announced in Sarajevo on 29 July that he is setting up a commission to investigate corruption in the Bosnian government. Westendorp's agency will be independent of a similar body set up by President Alija Izetbegovic in response to criticism by visiting British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from Sarajevo. Cook, for his part, said that all sides have failed to carry out the Dayton agreement sufficiently or ensure freedom of the media. Cook also slammed the existence of power centers outside state structures, and cited the Bosnian secret service as an example. Meanwhile, "The New York Times" reported on 30 July that the White House will send envoy Richard Holbrooke back to the Balkans to encourage implementation of the Dayton agreement.[16] ROMANIAN PRIME MINISTER MEETS WITH TRADE UNIONSVictor Ciorbea on 29 July met with representatives of the main trade unions to discuss the negotiations under way with the IMF. He said that in the coming weeks, four unprofitable state-owned refineries and several mines will be closed. The trade unions demanded adequate social protection for affected workers as well as the indexation of wages to reflect price increases, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Also on 29 July, the National Commission for Statistics announced that inflation in June was 2.3 percent, similar to that in May. Inflation since December 1997 totals 101.2 percent. The Agency for Development reported the same day that foreign investment in Romania has reached $2.57 billion, of which $372 million have been invested since the beginning of 1997.[17] CLUJ MAYOR ACCUSED OF INTER-ETHNIC INCITEMENTAlexandru Farcas, the prefect of Cluj, on 29 July asked the Prosecutor- General's office to open an investigation into the local nationalist mayor, Gheorghe Funar. He accused Funar of having instigated the incident in which a Hungarian flag was stolen from the Hungarian consulate (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28 July 1997). He said if the mayor is found guilty, he will be dismissed. Funar, for his part, said he will sue Farcas for slander, RFE/RL's correspondent in Cluj reported. The previous day, Funar had addressed open letters to Prime Minister Ciorbea and Foreign Minister Adrian Severin demanding that the government abolish the ordinance allowing bilingual signs, declare the Hungarian consul in Cluj "persona non grata" in Romania, and close the recently opened consulate.[18] MORE DIE IN ROMANIAN FLOODSThree more persons have died as a result of the floods in Vaslui County, eastern Romania, bringing the total of those who have drowned in the recent floods to four, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported on 29 July.[19] IMF STIPULATES CONDITIONS FOR LOANS TO TRANSDNIESTERDavid Owen, who is heading an IMF delegation in Tiraspol, said on 29 July that the granting of credits to the breakaway region is conditional on the pace of normalization of relations with Chisinau, an RFE/RL correspondent in the Moldovan capital reported. Owen also said the fund will not approve credits to the Transdniester without first consulting Chisinau.[20] BULGARIA, TURKEY SIGN MILITARY AGREEMENTTurkish and Bulgarian officials, meeting in Ankara on 29 July, signed a military agreement providing for cooperation in defense and security, military technology, logistics, and instruction. At the signing ceremony, Turkish Chief of Staff Gen. Ismail Kakki Karadayi said the two sides will reduce the number of troops deployed near the countries' joint border to further enhance mutual trust. His Bulgarian counterpart, Gen. Miho Mihov, said the agreement was further proof of Turkish support for Bulgaria's drive to join NATO, RFE/RL's Sofia bureau reported.[21] IMF PRAISES BULGARIAIn a statement released in Washington on 29 July, the IMF praised Bulgaria's efforts to stabilize its economy, Reuters reported. The fund says financial markets have reacted favorably to the introduction of the currency board in Bulgaria and that the country now has an "excellent opportunity to reinvigorate and complete the reform [process]." But it warns that there is "no room for slippage or complacency, as significant risks remain." In other news, it was announced on 28 July that Bulgaria's National Investigation Service will seize the passports of more than 1,5000 citizens suspected of involvement in corruption. The group includes former ministers and deputies, bankers, credit millionaires, and heads of insurance companies suspected of racketeering.[C] END NOTE[22] Why Estonia rather than Latvia or Lithuania?by Michael WyzanOn 15 July, the European Commission announced it was recommending that Estonia -- together with the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia - - begin negotiations on accession to the EU. Estonia may well be the most advanced economic reformer among the postcommunist countries. Equally important, with 1.5 million people and a gross domestic product of some $4 billion, it is so small that it will not present a burden to Brussels's coffers. Estonia is the wealthiest country to emerge from the former Soviet Union; in April, the average monthly wage stood at DM 406 ($235), about two-thirds of that in the richest Visegrad countries. It has a strong Western trade orientation: the top five export destinations in 1996 were Finland, Russia, Sweden, Latvia, and Germany. While 98 percent of exports went to other Soviet republics in 1990, that figure was only 40 percent (24 percent for the CIS alone) in 1996. One hallmark of Estonian economic policy has been liberalism toward domestic and foreign activity; for example, it has no import tariffs. It has modeled its privatization methods on those of the former East Germany, focusing on the search for cash-paying strategic investors, especially foreign ones. Estonia's use of such methods has resulted in unusually high volumes of foreign investment (DM 1.3 billion or some $800 million through the end of 1996). Another characteristic has been rigorous macroeconomic policy. In June 1992, Estonia became the first former communist country to introduce a currency board (since adopted by Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Bosnia), which eliminates most discretion on the part of the monetary authorities to stimulate the economy. Under such an arrangement, the central bank is barred from financing government budget deficits. Moreover, Tallinn has been unusually tough in closing failed banks and dealing with the consequences of such failures. The Estonian Central Bank imposed a moratorium on three banks in November 1992; and in January 1993, it proceeded to close one of those banks (without compensating shareholders or depositors) and to merge the other two, providing only partial compensation to their depositors. Those policies have paid off in macroeconomic performance. Monthly inflation, though slow to come down, was only 0.7 percent in the 12 months to March 1997. GDP grew by 4.3 percent in 1995 and 4.0 percent in 1996, after declining in previous years. The state budget has either been virtually balanced or in slight deficit, while the public debt is low. Estonia is closer to meeting the EU's Maastricht convergence criteria than many current members of the union. Even its worst problems, especially large and growing trade and current-account deficits, are similar to those of such obvious candidates for accession as the Czech Republic. The question to be asked is not why Estonia was invited to begin membership talks, but why Latvia and Lithuania were not invited to do so. The EC justified its decision not to include them on the grounds that they lagged behind in establishing market economies. But Latvia seems an only slightly less attractive candidate than Estonia. It used similarly tough methods to deal with a far more severe banking crisis than Estonia's. Between February and May 1995, five of Latvia's 10 biggest commercial banks became insolvent. Like Tallinn, Riga provided only partial compensation to depositors and tightened capital requirements and banking regulations. Those tough policies paid off. While Latvia weathered a bad year in 1995 (GDP fell by 0.8 percent), it saw a marked improvement in 1996 (GDP rose by 2.8 percent). Inflation has generally been lower than in Estonia (in 1995, Riga registered inflation of 13.2 percent and Tallinn 15 percent). Latvia is also the leader in pension reform among post-communist countries. Latvia's demerits include relatively slow and non-transparent privatization and trade oriented less toward the West (and a lower volume of foreign investment). It suffers from a high degree of political instability, with no fewer than five ministers resigning over the past two months and the premier following suit earlier this week. But Estonia has suffered from similar problems in the past. Lithuania seems a somewhat less alluring candidate than its northern neighbors, but the gap between it and the others is not so big. By 1996, inflation was running at 13.1 percent, while GDP growth has been positive since 1994. It was the first Baltic State to move ahead with privatization, although the voucher-based system introduced early on proved unsatisfactory. While Lithuania's relations with the IMF have been more difficult than those of the other two Baltic States, they nonetheless remain on track. However, it is the poorest state of the three and has the least welcoming attitude toward foreign capital. In conclusion, the EU may have to expend more effort justifying its decision not to invite Latvia and Lithuania to the negotiating table than was needed for the decision to invite Estonia. The author is a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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