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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 66, 97-07-03Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 1, No. 66, 3 July 1997CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] MEMBERS OF TAJIK RECONCILIATION COUNCIL APPOINTEDThe 26 members of the Tajik Reconciliation Council have been named, RFE/RL corespondents in Dushanbe reported. The council has13 members from the United Tajik Opposition and 13 from the Tajik government. Among the government members are Deputy Prime Minister Basgul Dodikhudoyeva, First Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Abdumajid Dostiyev, presidential adviser Ibrahim Usmonov, and Minister of Labor Shukurjon Zuhurov. The UTO representatives include UTO leader Said Abdullo Nuri and chairman of the Democratic Party Juma Niyazov. The council will convene in Moscow on 7 July to elect a chairman from the UTO and a deputy chairman from the government. The question of a general amnesty will also be discussed.[02] KAZAK PRESIDENT PROMISES PENSIONS WILL BE PAIDNursultan Nazarbayev, speaking on national television and radio on 2 July, told pensioners all arrears will be paid by the end of 1997, RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty reported. On 1 July, a new system for paying pensions was launched whereby pensioners are to receive their benefits on the first day of the following month (meaning June pensions were to be disbursed on 1 July). Nazarbayev promised pensions would be paid regularly and without any delay, saying a special state board will make sure that local administrations do not use pension funds for other purposes, as has happened in the recent past. The president called on pensioners to be patient and not to take part in demonstrations or other protests.[03] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT ON CUSTOMS UNION WITH RUSSIA, BELARUS, KAZAKSTANAskar Akayev told journalists in Bishkek on 2 July that the customs union between Russia, Belarus, Kazakstan, and Kyrgyzstan has not lived up to expectations owing to problems "between Russia and Kazakstan," RFE/RL correspondents and Russian media reported. He pointed out that Kazakstan has raised its customs tariffs without consulting other union members. Akayev said if the union functioned at its full potential, Kyrgyzstan could boost its trade turnover with Russia and Kazakstan by three or four times. He also noted that Kyrgyzstan's GDP grew by 5% in the first half of 1997 and said that, on the whole, the privatization process has been successful.[04] BEREZOVSKII CONTINUES ABKHAZ SHUTTLE DIPLOMACY...Following talks on 1 July in Tbilisi with Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze and parliamentary chairman Zurab Zhvania, Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Boris Berezovskii flew to Sukhumi to discuss with Abkhaz President Vladislav Ardzinba unspecified proposals for resolving the Abkhaz conflict, Russian and Western agencies reported. Berezovskii flew back to Tbilisi on 2 July with proposals that Georgian Foreign Minister Irakli Menagharishvili characterized as "rather interesting," according to ITAR-TASS. After a second round of talks with Shevardnadze, Berezovskii returned to Sukhumi with Zhvania and Georgian Ambassador to Russia Vazha Lortkipanidze, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 3 July. Berezovskii said that the negotiations were "difficult" but that the main goal is to "move forward all the time."[05] ...WHILE BATURIN WARNS AGAINST WITHDRAWING PEACEKEEPERSMeanwhile, Russian Defense Council Secretary Yurii Baturin held talks in Tbilisi on 2 July with Shevardnadze and Georgian Defense Minister Vardiko Nadibaidze on military and economic cooperation, Russian and Western agencies reported. Baturin later told journalists that it is in the interest of both countries that Russia maintains its military bases in Georgia. Baturin said that the CIS peacekeeping force currently deployed along the border between Abkhazia and the rest of Georgia would be withdrawn after its mandate expires on 31 July if Georgia insists. But he warned that this could lead to a resumption of hostilities, Reuters reported. After discussing Georgia's claims to part of the Black Sea fleet with Nadibaidze, Baturin told journalists that the value of the former Soviet naval base at Poti far exceeds that of the vessels formerly stationed there, according to Interfax.[06] IRAN PROTESTS MISTREATMENT OF ITS NATIONALS IN AZERBAIJANI PRISONSThe Iranian Foreign Ministry has formally protested to the Azerbaijani ambassador in Tehran about the alleged mistreatment of Iranians held in Azerbaijani jails, Western agencies reported, citing IRNA. An Iranian Foreign Ministry official claimed that three Iranians recently died as a result of ill treatment and that conditions in Azerbaijan's prisons do not conform with international standards.[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[07] ALBANIAN PRIME MINISTER, PRESIDENT QUARREL OVER SECURITY FORCEPresident Sali Berisha said in Tirana on 2 July that "there will be no co- habitation," which presumably means he intends to keep his promise to resign following the Socialists' election victory. But Prime Minister Bashkim Fino said the same day that he is at odds with the president after Berisha ordered the elite presidential guard to protect streets and the National Bank in Tirana. Fino issued a counter-order, saying that such work is the duty of the police. The current interior minister, who controls the police, is the Socialist Sokol Baraj, whom Fino appointed after Baraj's Democrat predecessor fled the country on 1 July (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 July 1997). Fino refused the next day to appoint as minister the Democrat Azem Hajdari, who is Berisha's nominee, "Gazeta Shqiptare" reported.[08] MONARCHISTS, SOCIALIST HOLD RALLIES IN TIRANAThe monarchist Legality Party held a rally attended by some 200 people in Tirana on 2 July. Speakers claimed that the Socialists stole the monarchists' victory in the referendum on the monarchy (see "RFE/RL Newsline, 2 July 1997). The police stopped the rally, which had not been formally registered as required by law, but there was no major violence, "Dita Informacion" reported. Also on 2 July, armed monarchists set up a roadblock, in Mamuras, north of Tirana, for a short time. Meanwhile in Tirana, the Socialists held a victory rally of about 10,000 people. Speakers included not only Socialist leaders but also key personalities from the Democratic Alliance and Social Democrats, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the capital. The party leaders called for national reconciliation and promised to establish the rule of law and democratic institutions.[09] LARGE OIL BLAZE IN SOUTHERN ALBANIAA large fire broke out in a oil storage area in Vlora when a storage tank caught fire on 2 July, "Gazeta Shqiptare" reported. Local residents had to be evacuated, but looters hindered firefighters from doing their job. In Fier, three people were accidentally killed and seven injured on 2 July when people fired wildly into the air following Berisha's televised admission of electoral defeat, "Dita Informacion" reported.[10] BOSNIAN SERB ARMY GIVES BACKING TO REPUBLIKA SRPSKA PRESIDENT...The leadership of the Bosnian Serb army met with embattled Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic in Banja Luka on 2 July, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from that Bosnian town. The general staff said in a statement that the army supports the constitutional order, which includes backing the president as the army's commander-in-chief. The generals added that they hope for a speedy end to the ongoing crisis between Plavsic and the hardliners around Radovan Karadzic, lest the feuding lead to a split among Serbs in general and in the army in particular. The army's support is doubtless a boost to Plavsic, but the main instrument of coercion in the Republika Srpska is the police, who are loyal to her opponents.[11] ...WHILE SHE CONTINUES TO TRADE CHARGES WITH ENEMIESBiljana Plavsic said in Banja Luka on 2 July that the charges made against her by her own Serbian Democratic Party are groundless (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 2 July 1997). She commented that it is strange that her opponents insist she resign over political differences, given that those same individuals did not call for the resignation of army commander Gen. Ratko Mladic after the Bosnian Serb army's disastrous defeats in 1995. Plavsic stressed that the Bosnian Serbs have no choice but to carry out the Dayton agreement, even though they did not sign it. Meanwhile in Pale, Republika Srpska Prime Minister Gojko Klickovic repeated accusations that Plavsic is doing the bidding of foreign powers and pushing for the re- establishment of a unitary Bosnia-Herzegovina.[12] FOREIGN SUPPORT FOR PLAVSICBritish SFOR peacekeepers strengthened their patrols in Banja Luka in an apparent warning to Bosnian Serb hardliners not to use their police force against Plavsic. NATO helicopters flew overhead as part of the display of force. Meanwhile, U.S., British, and French government spokesmen all expressed support for the Bosnian Serb president. U.S. State Department spokesman Nicholas Burns added that Plavsic's main enemy, Radovan Karadzic, is a "snake in the grass" and a "poisonous influence" in the region. In Sarajevo, representatives of the UN and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe also said they back Plavsic.[13] NEWS FROM FORMER YUGOSLAVIAIn The Hague, the prosecution in the trial of Dusan Tadic on 2 July called the Bosnian Serb "evil" and demanded life imprisonment for him. In Sarajevo, UN spokesmen said Jacques Klein, the current UN chief administrator in eastern Slavonia, will become first deputy to Carlos Westendorp, the international community's chief representative in Bosnia. In Podgorica, the opposition coalition threatened to boycott the parliament unless the legislature discusses Montenegro's backing for Slobodan Milosevic's candidacy for the Yugoslav presidency. Opposition spokesmen said that the governing Socialists, who have endorsed Milosevic, cannot claim to speak for all Montenegro in the matter, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the Montenegrin capital. And in Zagreb, a bomb damaged a boutique on 3 July. News agencies said the incident appears to be part of an increasingly violent competition among criminals.[14] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT MEETS WITH GERMAN CHANCELLOREmil Constantinescu, on a short "working visit" to Bonn on 2 July, discussed with Helmut Kohl Romania's bid to be admitted to the enlarged NATO. A spokesman for the German government said Kohl and the cabinet support the Romanian desire for early NATO membership. He added that the decision should "be made on the basis of consensus of the 16 NATO partners in Madrid." On his return to Bucharest the same day, Constantinescu said he discussed with Kohl the necessity to increase German investment in Romania and a number of "projects of European interests," Radio Bucharest reported.[15] TENSIONS IN ROMANIAN COALITIONFollowing the 1 July publication of a report by Valerian Nastase, head of the government's Control Department, tensions are growing between the junior coalition partner, the Democratic Party, and other members of the coalition. The report says that Democratic Party chairman Petre Roman, Foreign Minister Adrian Severin, and Transportation Minister Traian Basescu illegally acquired apartments from the state and paid considerably less than their market value. The report also incriminates other members of the ruling coalition, as well as members of the former government (including former President Ion Iliescu). Basescu rejected the accusations on 2 July and said his party will soon discuss whether it is feasible to prolong the existing coalition partnership. Prime Minister Victor Ciorbea said the Democratic Party's threats were "out of line." He added that the government cannot "stray from the principles" included in its program.[16] MOLDOVAN PARLIAMENT DISCUSSES PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESSThe parliament on 2 July debated President Petru Lucinschi's recent address urging lawmakers to pass legislation providing for the sale of land, administrative-territorial reform, and a higher retirement age, RFE/RL's Chisinau correspondent reported. Lucinschi had hinted that failure to pass the bills, which are considered by international financial organizations as conditions for the continuation of aid to Moldova, might lead to the dissolution of the legislature. On 1 July, Prime Minister Ion Ciubuc had threatened to resign if the bills were not passed. Most members of the majority Democratic Agrarian Party, as well as the Socialists and Socialist Unity-Edinstvo deputies, spoke out against the reforms at the 2 July session. The opposition said Lucinschi is now urging reforms that he previously blocked in his capacity as parliamentary chairman .[17] RUSSIAN COMMANDER IN TRANSDNIESTER OPPOSES UKRAINIAN PRESENCELt.-Gen. Valerii Yevnevich told a visiting delegation from the European Parliament on 2 July that he is "categorically opposed" to deploying Ukrainian peacekeeping troops in the region, BASA-press and Infotag reported. Ukrainian peacekeepers are stipulated in the 8 May agreement between Chisinau and Tiraspol. Yevnevich said that if they are brought in, "Russian peacekeepers will have nothing more to do here." He added that the Ukrainians should have come in 1992 "instead of waiting till somebody pulls the chestnuts out of fire" for them. Yevnevich told the delegation that part of the Russian contingent's stockpiles will be sold and the earnings channeled to help Transdniester's economic development. Erika Mann, the head of the European Parliament's delegation, said the EU might participate in finding solutions to the conflict by monitoring the withdrawal of Russian armament.[18] BULGARIAN PRESIDENT IN GREECEPetar Stoyanov, at the start of a three-day visit to Greece, met with his counterpart, Kostas Stephanopoulos, and Prime Minister Kostas Simitis, Reuters reported on 2 July. During his visit, the two countries will sign an agreement on the construction of a new bridge next to the existing one at the northern Greek Promahonas border post. The project will be financed entirely by Athens. Stephanopoulos said Greece backed Bulgaria's efforts to become a member of NATO and the EU. In other news, economic ministers of CEFTA member countries are scheduled to meet in Bled, Slovenia, on 3 July to begin negotiations with Bulgaria on its admission to the organization.[19] BULGARIAN-SOUTH AFRICAN MILITARY ACCORDAt the end of his four-day visit to Bulgaria, South African Defense Minister Joe Modise and his Bulgarian counterpart, Georgi Ananiev, signed an agreement on military cooperation, BTA reported on 2 July. The agreement provides for cooperation in defense technologies and military industries. Modise also met with Premier Ivan Kostov. On 30 June, a car transporting the two delegations was involved in an accident near Sofia in which a woman working for the French Embassy in the Bulgarian capital was killed and her husband injured. Modise and Bulgarian Deputy Defense Minister Gen. Simeon Petkovski were slightly injured.[C] END NOTE[20] YEREVAN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS DIFFERENT ECONOMIC PROSPECTS OF TRANSCAUCASIAN STATESby Michael WyzanThe American University of Armenia staged a conference in Yerevan in mid-June on "The Transcaucasus Today: Prospects for Regional Integration." Participants included officials and scholars from Armenia and Georgia, along with foreign specialists on the area. Officials were also invited from Baku, but they declined to attend. The Azerbaijani view was presented instead by Azeris living abroad and by Western scholars. The conference highlighted Armenia's frustration with what it perceives as a tilt in the West (and especially the U.S.) toward the Azerbaijani position on the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute--a shift that they blame on the attractiveness of Caspian Sea oil. Whatever the topic under discussion at the conference, the participants kept returning to petroleum--a subject that is obviously of great importance to Azerbaijan. Georgia will be the site of one or more pipelines carrying Azerbaijani oil. Since it enjoys good relations with Azerbaijan, Georgia need not sacrifice other national objectives to enjoy those pipelines' economic and other benefits. On the other hand, it is unlikely that Armenia would be the site of a pipeline carrying Caspian oil. The only way to convince Azerbaijan to agree to such a scenario would presumably be to return Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani sovereignty. Moreover, even if such a pipeline were built, Azerbaijan could always stop the flow of oil in response to a provocation or try to convince Armenia to change its position on an issue under discussion. World Bank economist Jonathan Walters argued that the large investments in infrastructure that the region urgently needs cannot be financed without substantial (private) foreign direct investment. He noted that reforming the state--including establishing judicial independence and appropriate regulation of natural monopolies--is pivotal to attracting investors in the infrastructure. Foreign investment and increased exports will gain in importance as the international financial institutions wean the Transcaucasian states from generous support for their fiscal and current account imbalances. Robert E. Ebel of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., noted that U.S. energy policy prioritizes reducing the country's dependence on Persian Gulf oil. That fact accounts for the U.S.'s recently awakened interest in the region. In the early 20th century, Great Britain dominated the concessions working Caucasian oil deposits. Ebel observed that oil wealth need not promote economic development; instead, it may result in arms races, corruption, large-scale consumer-goods imports, and the construction of show projects. The former USSR's concentration on exploiting oil and gas deposits in Russia--rather than those in Azerbaijan, Kazakstan, or Turkmenistan--has left a significant share of unexploited deposits in those new states. However, despite the growing interest in those deposits, Caspian Sea oil cannot replace Persian Gulf oil in terms of political risk, quantity, cost of production, or market access. Ebel expects that within ten years, Caspian Sea oil will account for only 3%-4% of world production. Andrei Illarionov of the Institute of Economic Analysis in Moscow noted that the Transcaucasian states suffered from the sharpest output declines in the Council of Independent States (CIS). However, economic growth resumed early, starting with Armenia (the first CIS member to experience positive growth) in 1994, followed by Georgia in 1995 and Azerbaijan last year. Inflation and budget deficits have fallen markedly in all three countries. Illarionov noted that inter-regional trade is below potential, although trade volumes between Georgia and the other two countries have recently risen significantly. The long-awaited oil and gas investment boom in Azerbaijan began in 1996, when it received 17% of gross domestic product in foreign direct investment. In the end, it seems pointless to lecture the Armenians- -as many Western participants did--on the economic benefits of improved relations with their neighbors. Armenia (and Nagorno-Karabakh) would no more sacrifice their perceived national interests to share Azerbaijani oil wealth than Israel would withdraw from the Golan Heights in exchange for a similar promise from Iran or Saudi Arabia. Rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan may be a distant prospect. Fortunately, technological advance has made such a rapprochement less crucial for Armenia's economic development than in the past. Today, a land-locked nation that has troubled relations with its neighbors but a highly skilled population and good connections with the outside world should be capable of enjoying rapid economic growth. For example, diamonds polished in Armenia, exported by air to Antwerp, are currently one of Armenia's largest exports. Once political and economic life is sufficiently stable, the prospects of Diaspora Armenians and others investing in the creation of a local "Silicon Valley" are likely to be good. Such activity has already begun. The author is a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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