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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 1, No. 47, 97-06-06
RFE/RL NEWSLINE
Vol. 1, No. 47, 6 June 1997
CONTENTS
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[01] GEORGIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY DENIES PLANS TO INVADE ABKHAZIA
[02] ANOTHER DEMONSTRATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
[03] FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN KAZAKSTAN
[04] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT IN ASHGABAT
[05] FREAK STORMS STRIKE TURKMENISTAN
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[06] FINO CALLS FOR ALBANIAN ELECTION PACT
[07] MILOSEVIC TO RUN FOR YUGOSLAV PRESIDENCY, BUT MONTENEGRO BALKS
[08] SERBIAN OPPOSITION AGREES ON ELECTION PACT
[09] CROATIAN OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BEATEN
[10] WESTENDORP TO GIVE PRIORITY TO CATCHING BOSNIAN WAR CRIMINALS
[11] SLOVENIA HOSTS CENTRAL EUROPEAN PRESIDENTS
[12] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION MOVES SECOND NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION
[13] RIFT WIDENS IN ROMANIA'S MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY
[14] MOLDOVA'S GAS DEBT TO RUSSIA TO BE PAID IN INSTALLMENTS?
[15] BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT PASSES LAW ON CURRENCY BOARD
[16] BULGARIAN PRIME MINISTER SUMS UP BRUSSELS VISIT
[C] END NOTE
[17] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION PARTY IN TURMOIL
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[01] GEORGIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY DENIES PLANS TO INVADE ABKHAZIA
The Defense Ministry has issued a statement denying press reports that
Georgian forces are preparing for a military attack on Abkhazia, ITAR-TASS
reported on 6 June. The press reports claimed that the reason for First
Deputy Defense Minister Dzhoni Pirtskhalaishvili's resignation was not
personal friction between himself and Defense Minister Vardiko Nadibaidze
but Pirtskhaliashvili's opposition to the planned offensive. Addressing
troops on 26 May, the anniversary of the 1918 proclamation of Georgia's
independence, Nadibaidze had said that their primary obligation was to
restore Georgia's territorial integrity, if necessary by force.
[02] ANOTHER DEMONSTRATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
More than 500 people assembled outside the government building on 5 June
and presented a list of demands to the government, RFE/RL correspondents in
Bishkek reported. The protest was organized by Kyrgyzstan's Committee to
Protect Journalists and was joined by a group representing the homeless in
the capital. The protesters demanded the release of all journalists
currently detained or jailed in Kyrgyzstan and an investigation into the 3
June beating by Kyrgyz militia of four people who had staged a hunger
strike outside the government building. They also want the resignation of
Bishkek Mayor Boris Silayev and his administration and increased efforts to
help Bishkek's homeless. Deputy Prime Minister Mira Jangaracheva went out
to talk to the demonstrators but they said they would only speak to Prime
Minister Apas Jumagulov.
[03] FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN KAZAKSTAN
Kenneth Derr, the president of the U.S. company Chevron, told an investment
conference in Almaty on 5 June that his firm has already invested $800
million in Kazakstan and plans to invest $20 billion in the Tengiz oil
field project over the next 40 years, Interfax reported. The Tengizchevroil
joint venture is already producing 160,000 barrels of oil per day and hopes
to increase this to 700,000 barrels per day by 2010. President Nursultan
Nazarbayev told the conference that foreign companies to date have
committed themselves to investing more than $60 billion in the coming
years. He noted that direct investment now totals $6 billion. and that by
2003, Kazakstan will be producing 100 million tons of oil annually.
Nazarbayev also said the recoverable mineral resources in his country are
estimated at $8.7 trillion.
[04] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT IN ASHGABAT
Levon Ter-Petrossyan arrived in Ashgabat on 5 June for a two-day official
visit, ITAR-TASS and Noyan Tapan reported. Ter-Petrossyan and his Turkmen
counterpart, Saparmurat Niyazov, signed an agreement on avoiding dual
taxation and a memorandum on expanding bilateral cooperation. They also
signed a protocol whereby Armenia will provide Turkmenistan with
manufactured goods and gold in payment of its $35 million debt for Turkmen
natural gas supplied in 1994-1995.
[05] FREAK STORMS STRIKE TURKMENISTAN
Heavy rains fell in southern Turkmenistan from 2-4 June, causing damage in
and around the capital, Ashgabat, ITAR-TASS reported. The level of the
Atrek and Firuzinka Rivers rose as much as 3 meters and brought stones and
wood into villages located on their banks. One plane at Ashgabat's airport
slipped off the runway as it was landing and fell on its side. No
casualties were reported. The rain fall is the heaviest recorded for June
since 1929.
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[06] FINO CALLS FOR ALBANIAN ELECTION PACT
Prime Minister Bashkim Fino has invited all political parties to sign an
agreement on the fair conduct of the election campaign. He said in Tirana
on 5 June that the apparent assassination attempt on President Sali Berisha
the previous day was a "dangerous precedent" (see RFE/RL Newsline, 5 June
1997). Politically polarized Albania has a tradition of political violence
and is awash with weapons, but the attack on Berisha was the first such
incident involving a major political figure in the current campaign. Also
in Tirana, ATA reports that a bomb went off in a school yard but that
police have arrested the culprits. In Vlora, Italian peacekeepers broke up
a shoot-out involving 18 Albanians near the Italians' headquarters.
[07] MILOSEVIC TO RUN FOR YUGOSLAV PRESIDENCY, BUT MONTENEGRO BALKS
Top officials of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic's Socialist Party of
Serbia said in Podgorica on 5 June that Milosevic will run for the federal
presidency later this year, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from the
Montenegrin capital. Montenegro's Democratic Socialist Party, however, has
said it will decide later whether to endorse Milosevic. It added that it
rejects Milosevic's plans to strengthen the federal presidency or to elect
the president by direct vote. Current Federal President and Milosevic-
loyalist Zoran Lilic's term expires later this month. Milosevic cannot
legally seek a new term as Serbian president, and the opposition has said
it will take to the streets again if he tries to bend the law to be able to
run again. His alternative means of holding onto power would be to run for
a strengthened federal presidency.
[08] SERBIAN OPPOSITION AGREES ON ELECTION PACT
Representatives of some 12 opposition parties met in Belgrade on 4 June and
agreed on a set of minimum conditions that the government must meet before
the parties will participate in the Serbian elections due later this year.
Key points include ensuring access to electronic and other media and
providing funding for the parties. If their demands are not met, the
parties said they may actively obstruct the elections, an RFE/RL
correspondent reported from Belgrade. Meanwhile in Athens, the Greek
telecommunications company OTE announced it will join Italy's Stet in
taking a 49% share of Telecom Serbia. The London-based Financial Times
wrote on 5 June that the deal "reflects a flourishing political
relationship between Greece and Serbia, including the Bosnian Serbs."
[09] CROATIAN OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BEATEN
Vlado Gotovac, the Liberal and opposition coalition candidate in the 15
June presidential elections, was assaulted by a man wearing a military
uniform in Pula on 5 June. Gotovac fell to the ground and briefly lost
consciousness. He then returned to address his followers in the Istrian
port city. Croatian authorities have promised to issue a statement on the
incident on 6 June, Hina reported. Tomac's party spokesman told reporters
in Zagreb that he was flown back to the capital where he is undergoing
medical tests. The spokesman added that Gotovac is suffering from a
concussion and is in shock. Police arrested the assailant. Meanwhile in
Osijek, the authorities have pardoned Ante Gudelj after he had just begun
serving a 20-year sentence for the murder of Josip Reihl-Kir. Reihl-Kir was
a local moderate police chief whose murder was a key development in the run-
up to the war between Serbs and Croats in eastern Slavonia.
[10] WESTENDORP TO GIVE PRIORITY TO CATCHING BOSNIAN WAR CRIMINALS
Carlos Westendorp, the international community's new high representative in
Bosnia, said in Madrid on 5 June that he will give priority to catching war
criminals. He said he will try to persuade local leaders to hand over their
war criminals and added that if they do not comply, he will consider what
he called "pressure." Westendorp echoed recent statements by U.S. Secretary
of State Madeleine Albright stressing that the international community will
help those who observe the Dayton accords and isolate those who do not. In
Banja Luka, Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic discussed refugee
return and economic cooperation with her federal opposite number, Vladimir
Soljic. And in Pale, the Bosnian Serb government approved a trade agreement
with federal Yugoslavia that in effect eliminates administrative
restrictions on trade between Belgrade and Pale, BETA reported.
[11] SLOVENIA HOSTS CENTRAL EUROPEAN PRESIDENTS
A conference of eight presidents opens in Portoroz and Piran on the
Slovenian Adriatic coast on 6 June. President Milan Kucan is hosting his
counterparts from Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria,
Italy, and Hungary. The gathering is especially important to Slovenia
because it is counting on support from Germany and Italy, in particular, in
its drive to join NATO and the EU. The main problem is that Rome could
continue to block Ljubljana's EU candidacy unless Slovenia changes its laws
to allow foreigners to own property. Many Slovenes are worried that
Italians with family roots in Slovenia could buy up land and houses. Kucan
told the Prague daily Pravo on 5 June that his country sees its future in
Central Europe, not in the Balkans.
[12] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION MOVES SECOND NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION
A motion of no confidence in Victor Ciorbea's cabinet was moved on 5 June
by 143 deputies from the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania
and the Party of Romanian National Unity, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau
reported. The motion will be debated on 9 June. The signatories say the
reform package that the premier recently submitted to the parliament (see
RFE/RL Newsline, 4 June 1997) is not in line with the government program
approved by the parliament last year. The legislature is scheduled to
debate on 6 June another no confidence motion proposed earlier by the
opposition.
[13] RIFT WIDENS IN ROMANIA'S MAIN OPPOSITION PARTY
Mircea Cosea, deputy prime minister in charge of economic reform in the
former cabinet headed by Nicolae Vacaroiu, has openly joined the camp of
those calling for the restructuring of the Party of Social Democracy in
Romania (see RFE/RL Newsline, 4 June 1997). Cosea was interviewed on
national television on 5 June, together with Iosif Boda, the main critic of
the current party leadership. The two men said they do not intend to bring
about a split in the party at its upcoming national conference. But they
noted that their political future will depend on whether the PDSR is able
to restructure itself and to allow a free democratic debate on the party's
future course (see also "End Note" below).
[14] MOLDOVA'S GAS DEBT TO RUSSIA TO BE PAID IN INSTALLMENTS?
President Petru Lucinschi on 5 June phoned his Russian counterpart, Boris
Yeltsin, and First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov asking them to help
find a formula to repay Moldova's debt to Gazprom in installments. Infotag
and BASA-press reported that Lucinschi told the Russian leaders he had
received a telegram from Gazprom threatening to cut off supplies if the
debt were not cleared. According to the Moldovan presidential office,
Yeltsin and Nemtsov agreed to negotiate a mechanism for the repayment of
the debt without cutting supplies. Moldova owes Gazprom some $570 million,
of which $300 million is the debt of the Transdniester breakaway region
[15] BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT PASSES LAW ON CURRENCY BOARD
The parliament on 5 June approved the law establishing the country's
currency board within the National Bank. The law prevents the National Bank
from fueling inflation, tying local money supply to foreign-currency
reserves, and covering state budget deficits by printing money. The same
day,. Ivan Kostov's government nominated former Finance Minister Svetoslav
Gavriiski to replace Lyubomir Filipov as National Bank governor. Meanwhile,
a team of FBI agents that will advise Bulgarian authorities on fighting
organized crime met with Justice Minister Vassil Gotsev (see RFE/RL
Newsline, 4 June 1997), RFE/RL Sofia correspondents reported. The team will
also advise the government on drafting anti-crime legislation.
[16] BULGARIAN PRIME MINISTER SUMS UP BRUSSELS VISIT
At a press conference in Brussels on 6 June at the end of his three-day
visit, Kostov stressed that Bulgaria's quest to join NATO and the EU by no
means diminishes the importance of its relations with Russia. During his
visit, Kostov met with EU, NATO, and Belgian officials. ITAR-TASS quoted
Kostov as saying that at his meetings at NATO headquarters on 5 June, he
received assurances that the aim of the alliance's July Madrid summit is
not only to establish which new members will be admitted to the
organization but also to set up a "mechanism of open doors" providing for
further NATO expansion in the future.
[C] END NOTE
[17] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION PARTY IN TURMOIL
by Michael Shafir
The Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) is scheduled to hold its
annual national conference in June, its first major gathering since having
been voted out of power last fall. The question is whether the party will
be able to redefine its course of action and produce a leadership capable
of finding a political formula that will win back voters disillusioned with
its seven-year rule following the fall of communism. Presumably, the first
thing it must do is present a united front and prove itself capable of
pursuing a clear ideological line and doing away with what the electorate
deems either obsolete or repugnant.
Few political analysts would dispute that the remnants of communist
ideology, which guided many of the PDSR leaders before 1989, are obsolete
and the party's political clientelism--which is unavoidably linked with
corruption and which Vladimir Tismaneanu, a U.S. political scientist of
Romanian origin, diagnosed as early as 1990 as "kleptocracy"--is repugnant.
Yet, the possibility of a united leadership capable of dealing with such
issues seems even more remote than ever. In fact, the upper echelons of the
PDSR seem increasingly engaged in a "war of all against all" as the
national conference draws nearer. Nothing illustrates this better than the
recent public duel between PDSR deputy Iosif Boda, on the one hand, and Ion
Iliescu, Romania's former president and PDSR chairman, and one of his
deputies, Adrian Nastase, on the other hand. Boda, who was the manager of
Iliescu's ill-fated presidential campaign in 1996, accused Nastase of
leading the party to a dead-end and demanded his resignation. The former
campaign manager was harshly criticized by Iliescu, who demanded that Boda
leave the party. For the time being, Boda, a former ambassador to
Switzerland, has received only a warning from the party. But, according to
sources in the PDSR, his expulsion cannot be ruled out.
That Iliescu would act in a manner reminiscent of how he himself was
treated by his presidential predecessor, Nicolae Ceausescu, is not
surprising, given his personal history and the fact that Boda destroyed
what Ceausescu would have called "the party-unity monolith." But the
conflict is a lot more complicated than that.
There are two possible ways to approach analyzing the rifts in the PDSR. A
"Kremlinological" approach would search for alliances, acts of treason, and
realignments within the party and would not overlook the fact that Boda has
demanded Nastase's replacement by another PDSR deputy chairman, former
Foreign Minister Teodor Melescanu. Earlier, at a Sibiu branch PDSR regional
conference, some delegates called for Iliescu's replacement as party
chairman by Melescanu--a call reiterated at least at one other gathering of
a PDSR branch. Until then, Iliescu was generally considered opposed to
Nastase, who, justifiably or not, is perceived as embodying all the defects
that helped the PDSR loose power, including corruption. The
"Kremlinologists" would also emphasize that the "enemies of my enemy" are
"my friends" and that Nastase is therefore Iliescu's buddy once again. To
strengthen that argument, the "Kremlinologists" would also point to an
ongoing ideological dispute. Boda and Melescanu are known to belong to a
group that wants to forge a Western- style, social-democratic identity for
the PDSR (one of its members, the Iasi deputy Mugurel Vintila, even called
it the Social Democratic Movement of Romania). The group is said to be
opposed by another that wants the PDSR to form an alliance with the
leftist-nationalist opposition represented in the parliament. The trouble
is that the "players" in this game of ideological musical chairs seem to
keep changing camps, leaving it unclear where either Iliescu or Nastase
stands. On the other hand, it only goes to show that a second approach--one
that is closer to political sociology than to "Kremlinology"--may be more
appropriate in analyzing developments within the PDSR. As a "clientelist"
party, the PDSR has been left in a most precarious position. Not only is it
no longer able to "distribute goods" to prospective allies, but its members
have been brusquely removed from influential positions in state structures
and leading economic institutions. The "war of all against all" within the
PDSR is perhaps no more than a struggle over diminished resources. Be that
as it may, the "Boda affair" does not bode well for Iliescu's party.
Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org
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