MAK-NEWS 11/04/95 (M.I.L.S.)
From: "Demetrios E. Paneras" <dep@bu.edu>
CONTENTS
[01] EBRD STARTS ANNUAL SUMMIT IN LONDON
[02] KINKEL ARRIVING TO SKOPJE TODAY
[03] GOVERNMENT PRESS-CONFERENCE
[04] WORKS ON BITOLA-SKOPJE POWER LINE BEGIN
[05] 1994, NEGATIVE ECONOMIC YEAR
[07] MILS SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT: IN MACEDONIA, NEW FEARS OF A WIDER BALKAN WAR (The New York Times, 9 April 1995)
M I L S N E W S
Skopje, 11 April 1995
[01] EBRD STARTS ANNUAL SUMMIT IN LONDON
In London, yesterday, the European Bank for Reconstruction
and Development started its annual summit to explore
possibilities for investment in former Eastern and Central
Russian Republics.
Today Macedonia is to present its proposal which should
attract open interest, resulting from the currently
implemented method of transition which is expected to yield
extraordinary results. Macedonia enjoys respect from the
Bank as both a credit user and also as a good business
partner and participant in the accomplishment of the basic
goals of this bank.
A1 Television, however, reports that, because the Macedonian
flag was not hoisted and the working documents did not refer
to Macedonia under its constitutional name, the Macedonian
delegation, led by Minister Jane Miljovski, left the
official seats and moved to guest seats, after having sent a
protest note to the Bank and the Bank Secretariat. A1
Television cites unofficial sources as saying the delegation
might organize today's presentation in its own way instead
of according to the official protocol.
In his statement with Macedonian Television, Miljovski said
that this unpleasant event is probably due to the recent
change in the leaders of the Bank Secretariat and their lack
of information. The flag used to be hoisted at the Bank and
it was also included on the bank's badge.
[02] KINKEL ARRIVING TO SKOPJE TODAY
German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel will pay a one-day
visit to Skopje today. He was invited by the Macedonian
Government and the visit is expected to be of extreme
importance for the development of bilateral cooperation, as
well as for the global situation in the Southern Balkans.
Kinkel will be received by top Macedonian leaders, as well
as leaders of opposition parties and parties of Albanians in
Macedonia. "The aim of the visit," Kinkel's spokesman said,
"is to stress the interest of Germany and Europe in
strengthening bilateral relations" .
In regard to Greek media news of Kinkel bringing along a
small package solution for the Greek-Macedonian dispute,
Macedonian ambassador to Bonn Srgjan Kerim (who is in
Skopje) said the information is absurd.
[03] GOVERNMENT PRESS-CONFERENCE
Macedonian Minister Ljube Trpevski held a press-conference
yesterday to state that the $99 million World Bank credit
for Macedonia was relatively easily obtained. He said the
World Bank and IMF place Macedonia among the most successful
countries in regard to current transition reforms. What the
board of the World Bank or the IMF must decide upon in the
future, Trpevski said, are the following: $24 million loan
for road construction (on April 18); stand-by arrangements
(May 5); the two World Bank credits (on 15 or 25 May); and
Macedonia's debt to the Paris club, to be discussed in the
next session on May 29. The World Bank vice-president is to
visit Macedonia sometime this week.
Meanwhile, at its regular session yesterday, the Government
concluded that the monetary policy is being carried out as
planned for the first quarter of the year. The same was said
about the foreign exchange rate of the Denar and inflation
measures. Furthermore, the cabinet strongly suggested lower
bank interest rates, as companies are not able to make
sufficient profits to cover the high interest rates. Lower
interest rates would not disturb the profitable operation of
banks, but will considerably alleviate the heavy burden on
the economy. Government members turned down a demand by the
public electricity company "Elektrostopanstvo" to allow a 50
per cent increase in the price of electricity, but approved
a 15 per cent increase for summer prices.
[04] WORKS ON BITOLA-SKOPJE POWER LINE BEGIN
Construction works on the Bitola-Skopje long-distance power
line are to begin sometime in the middle of this month. The
public electricity company "Elektrostopanstvo" is the
investor and "EMO" of Ohrid and "Galkon" of Turkey are the
contractors. The European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development approved a $22 million credit for the project.
The power line will be 113.5 kilometers long and will carry
power to Skopje from the power plant REK "Bitola".
[05] 1994, NEGATIVE ECONOMIC YEAR
Last year was not a successful year for the Macedonian
economy in terms of business results. The total loss
amounted to 33 billion Denars, with 9.5 billion transferred
from the year before and an additional 23.5 billion loss
produced in 1994 alone. This would make every second company
in Macedonia a loss-producing one, increasing the number of
such companies by as many as 4,000. Current losses are 4.5
times higher than the total income. Uncovered losses
comprise 11.3 per cent of the economy's permanent capital.
Private companies make up the highest number of loss-
producing firms, but the highest losses are produced by
companies with social or mixed capital. Industry,
agriculture and trade make up as much as 93.5 per cent of
the total loss.
The French Cultural Center and the Macedonian-French
Friendship Association have organized a lecture, by
professor Dr. Ilinka Mitreva on 12 April at the French
Cultural Center, to mark the occasion of the 50th
anniversary of the death of the French writer and diplomat
Jean Giraudoux.
[07] MILS SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT: IN MACEDONIA, NEW FEARS OF A
WIDER BALKAN WAR
(The New York Times, 9 April 1995)
With the United Nations scaling back its forces in Croatia
and a resurgence of fighting in Bosnia, fears that the
Balkan conflict will move south into Macedonia have been
renewed.
Internal ethnic conflicts and a worsening economy in
Macedonia add to the anxieties about political stability in
this new nation.
With the likelihood that a war here would draw in
neighboring countries, the United States has contingency
plans to send as many as 1,500 more American soldiers to
join the 550 already here as part of a United nations force
which was sent two years ago.
Moreover, the United States and other Western countries,
worried about the economic discontent, are looking the other
way as Macedonia conducts trade with Serbia in open
violation of UN sanctions. Macedonia is considered one of
the biggest violators of the sanctions.
At the same time, out of deference to Greece, the Clinton
Administration has not established full diplomatic relations
with Macedonia. This would contribute significantly to
political stability, diplomats and Macedonian leaders say.
Greece has imposed a blockade on Macedonia, its northern
neighbor, in a dispute that centers on who has the right to
use the name.
But the greatest threat to peace, diplomats and analysts
say, is President Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia, the most
powerful leader in what remains of the former Yugoslavia,
who has also refused to recognize the independence of
Macedonia and considers it to be southern Serbia.
A war would almost certainly be set off, analysts say, if
Mr. Milosevic increased the repression of ethnic Albanians
in the Serbian province of Kosovo, which borders onto
Macedonia. That would draw in the country of Albania, the
large Albanian population here and the neighboring countries
that have fought over Macedonia before.
Earlier in this century, Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece
all battled for dominion over Macedonia, which was carved up
after the Second Balkan War in 1910. Eventually the greatest
part became a republic in Tito's Yugoslavia. It declared its
independence in November 1991.
Greece objects to the use of the name Macedonia and to
Skopje's use of a bursting sun in the country's flag. Both
of these, the Greeks contend, have been part of their
heritage from the time of Alexander the Great who was a
Macedonian.
"If it were not so damaging to us, it would be funny," Hari
Kostov, Macedonia's Deputy Foreign Minister, said about the
Greek position and their blockade.
A European diplomat who insisted on anonymity said of the
Greek policy, "It is totally irrational."
Under the blockade, Macedonia, a landlocked country of 2.2
million people and the size of Vermont, has lost access to
the Greek port of Salonika on the Aegean.
Now raw materials and exports must make a tortuous and far
more expensive journey via Bulgaria or Albania. It costs $50
more a ton to bring oil in through Bulgaria, Mr. Kostov
said. To avoid passing on these increased costs to
consumers, the Government has reduced customs duties on oil,
which is costing it $100 million in revenues a year, Mr.
Kostov said.
He also cited a refrigerator manufacturing company that
imports parts from Italy and sells the finished
refrigerators in Western Europe. It is now operating at a
loss because of the increased transportation costs.
"There has been a real failure of leadership, not only by
the United States, but by the European Union" to get the
embargo lifted, said a senior UN official in the region.
The international sanctions against the former Yugoslavia
compound Macedonia's economic problems. Before Yugoslavia
was dismembered, Serbia was the major market for Macedonia's
finished goods and agricultural products.
The sanctions have cost Macedonia $3 billion over three
years, Mr. Kostov said. The country's total budget this year
is $1.2 billion.
To mitigate the effects of the Greek embargo, The United
Nations and Western governments are ignoring the wide-scale
sanction violations by Macedonia. "We are looking the other
way," a Western diplomat said.
Several hundred trucks a week cross into Serbia, a UN
military officer said as he surveyed the line of trucks at
the border crossing at Djeneral Jankovic, 10 miles from
Skopje.
Still, the economy continues to decline and social unrest
looms. Under conditions laid down by the International
Monetary Fund, Macedonia must make 25 state enterprises
profitable by the end of the year or close them. Only a few
are likely to make it, Mr. Kostov said, which could leave
25,000 people unemployed.
In recent weeks, workers have held demonstrations in two
cities to protest the economic conditions, and more protests
are planned.
"It will be a fantastic opportunity for demagogues," said
Vladimir Milcin, a theater director and the executive
director for Macedonia of the Soros Foundation, which
supports democratic institutions in former Communist
countries. Demagogues here range from strident Macedonian
nationalists to Albanian separatists to advocates of unity
with Serbia.
"It mainly depends on America," Mr. Milcin said when asked
how political turmoil could be averted, expressing a view
widely held here.
European diplomats and Macedonian leaders say that what is
needed is not so much for the US to send more troops as for
it to grant full diplomatic relations.
"It would be a clear message to other countries of the
region that Macedonia is an internationally accepted state
and that the US stands behind its territorial integrity,"
the Prime Minister, Branko Crvenkovski, said in an
interview.
But American officials say Washington will not send an
ambassador until there has been a substantial resolution of
the dispute between Greece and Macedonia.
Mr. Crvenkovski said Macedonia is willing to compromise on
the flag, but his Government is adamant on continuing to use
the Republic of Macedonia as its name. Greece is just as
insistent that the name be changed, diplomats from several
countries said.
If peace is to be preserved, the Macedonian Government must
also treat its Albanian population more fairly. Long
discriminated against here, Albanians constitute the
country's largest ethnic minority - 23 per cent of the
population according to a recent census, which is generally
considered accurate though Albanians claim they are 40 per
cent of the population.
The Government has made some efforts on behalf of Albanians.
State television has programs in the Albanian language.
Primary and secondary schools teach in Albanian, and at the
national university in Skopje, where the student body is
less than 3 per cent Albanian, places are now reserved for
Albanians.
The Government drew a line, though, when ethnic Albanians
tried to establish their own university earlier this year in
the town of Tetovo. The Government argues that Macedonia
cannot support a university for every minority group, and it
is concerned that it would be a political training ground
for separatists.
The police descended on Tetovo to close the university. In
an ensuing clash with protesters, one ethnic Albanian man
was killed.
Most of the discriminatory policies against the Albanians
are a carry-over from the Communist era, but the Government
has been slow to change them.
"There is a lot of room to do more" for the Albanians, Prime
Minister Crvenkovski said.
On the broader question of whether Macedonia was the next
flash point, he said "the risk is not to be underestimated."
He compared watching Macedonia to a game of Russian roulette
- "maybe it will go of, maybe it won't."
(end)
mils-news 11 April '95
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