News from Bulgaria, 96-11-05

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From: Embassy of Bulgaria <bulgaria@access1.digex.net>

EMBASSY OF BULGARIA - WASHINGTON D.C.

BTA - BULGARIAN TELEGRAPH AGENCY

5 November, 1996

CONTENTS

[01] PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS C.E.C. CLOSES POLLS IN BULGARIA AND ABROAD

[02] COMMENTS: LANDSLIDE FOR PETER STOYANOV; STUNNING LOSS FOR SOCIALISTS

[03] INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS ON BULGARIA'S PRESIDENTIAL POLL

[04] PRESIDENT ELECT STOYANOV HOPES BULGARIA IS STRONGER, WISER

[05] PRESIDENT ZHELEV'S MESSAGE TO MRS LEAH RABIN

[06] I.M.F. OFFICIALS MEET PRESIDENT ZHELEV

[07] BULGARIA PRESENTS RATIFICATION INSTRUMENTS ON ACCESSION TO W.T.O.

[08] BULGARIA TO TAKE PART IN INTERNATIONAL EXERCISE

[09] COUNCIL OF EUROPE EXPERTS ASSESS BULGARIAN CULTURE POLICY

[10] TRADE UNION IN FAVOUR OF DEBT RESCHEDULING TALKS

[11] ECONOMIST IVAN ANGELOV ON CONDITION OF ECONOMY

[01] PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS C.E.C. CLOSES POLLS IN BULGARIA AND ABROAD

By 15:30 hrs today, CEC had processed 10,000 out of some 12,500 tally sheets received from polling stations, CEC spokesperson Ralitsa Negentsova told a briefing here today. The valid votes are 3,339,325 of a total of 3,358,998 votes cast.

The Stoyanov-Kavaldjiev ticket polled 2,040,272, or 61.10%, of the votes tallied by 15:30 hrs today. The contenders of the Socialist-led coalition Together for Bulgaria, Ivan Marazov and Irina Bokova, polled 1,299,233, or 38.90%, of the votes counted by that time. CEC is waiting to receive the tally sheets of two constituencies, Vidin and Silistra (on the Danube), out of a total of 31 excluding those abroad. Six hours after that CEC will be ready with the final results, a member of the team processing the data told "Daily News".

The CEC must announce the final results within three days of declaring the end of elections in Bulgaria and abroad. However, CEC officials said the results might be made public tomorrow.

Stoyanov-Kavaldjiev garnered the largest proportion of votes, 74.37%, in Plovdiv, the country's second-largest city (South Central Bulgaria) where Peter Stoyanov was born. At 44.52% their performance was worst in Vratsa (Northwestern Bulgaria).

The Marazov-Bokova ticket won the largest proportion of the vote in Vratsa, 55.48%. Plovdiv gave them the least support, 25.63%.

[02] COMMENTS: LANDSLIDE FOR PETER STOYANOV; STUNNING LOSS FOR SOCIALISTS

Political scientist Ivan Krustev notes the huge majority that supported Stoyanov. He sees a major change in Bulgarian political life in the radical turnaround in electoral attitudes in the last six months. Voters have become rational, Krustev says, meaning that they are guided by their immediate concerns and not by their partisan and ideological predilections.

In the first round voting was largely negative, says Ivan Krustev, an analyst at the Centre for Liberal Strategies, calling it a referendum on Prime Minister Zhan Videnov's government. Compared to it, the run-off was a referendum on the possibility of the ruling Socialists running the country on the basis of broad social support from now on.

Political scientist Dimiter Gronev, a member of the Left's think- tank, says the results of the presidential elections should be analysed so as to rethink current policies. He says Peter Stoyanov's victory was not thanks to his own electorate but due to problems in the Left. Obviously, parliamentary and presidential elections got mixed up, says Gronev, adding that the electorate seemed to vote for a parliament.

Many analysts predict developments in the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). Says Ivan Krustev: "I do not think this was simply a loss or a win for any wing of the Socialist Party. The question what kind of party the BSP wants to be was posed by its electorate and not by its wings." Dimiter Gronev says the forthcoming developments in the BSP, which is to convene an extraordinary congress shortly, will be like a third round of the presidential elections. "Clearly, it will be judged if government policy is adequate to the current situation." Within a week the Socialists will analyse their loss. Socialist leader Zhan Videnov is expected to ask the top leadership for a vote of confidence.

Political analyst Evgeny Dainov predicts early parliamentary elections long before the end of 1997, contingent on the dynamic of processes in the BSP. Analyst Valentin Vatsev, a member of the BSP supreme leadership, says pressure for early elections will be strong but they will not be held before the summer of 1997.

Valeri Naidenov, Editor of "Continent", today warned the opposition that it should be more sceptical about the election results. The opposition should look at the first-round figures: 44 per cent support for the united opposition as against 52 per cent for the BSP, the Business Bloc and Alexander Tomov, said Naidenov and asked: "What if we were electing a parliament?" According to him, the Popular Union and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms - the election partners of the largest opposition force, the Union of Democratic Forces - have sunk into anonymity, while the BSP's partner George Ganchev, the Bulgarian Business Bloc leader who polled 22 per cent of the vote in the first round, is in "top shape".

[03] INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS ON BULGARIA'S PRESIDENTIAL POLL

The OSCE Mission arrived here to monitor Bulgaria's second direct presidential election at the invitation of the Cabinet of the ruling Bulgarian Socialist Party. The election took place in two rounds, on October 27 and November 3. During the run-off election, 22 observers visited more than 250 polling districts across the country.

"The OSCE International Observer Mission congratulates the people of Bulgaria on the calm and determined way they have fulfilled their democratic rights and responsibilities in this presidential election," OCSE Mission Co-ordinator Michael Medowcroft said. According to him, on the evidence of this election, and despite the widely reported economic and social pressures being experienced by the Bulgarian people, Bulgarian democracy is firmly based and respected. "The Mission applauds the transparency of the Bulgarian electoral process, exemplified by the publication of the detailed electoral statistics," the statement reads.

Speaking at today's news conference, Mr Medowcroft stressed that there are some imperfections in this country's electoral law as regards the registration of presidential candidates and the conduct of the election campaigns. As early as after the first round of elections, the international observers noted that the law gives differential treatment to registered presidential candidates. Those nominated by political organizations which have representation in Parliament enjoy more favourable treatment than their counterparts without formal parliamentary links. Only candidates whose nominating bodies were represented in Parliament are entitled to be represented on the electoral commissions at all levels, as well as to substantially more time in TV and radio debates, the observers noted.

"The Mission states its belief that the result of the presidential election accurately reflects the wishes of the Bulgarian electors," Mr Medowcroft concluded.

As early as after the first round of elections, the OCSE international observers expressed their satisfaction with the professionalism demonstrated by the election commissioners during the poll and the counting and tabulation procedure safeguards against manipulation of the election figures.

[04] PRESIDENT ELECT STOYANOV HOPES BULGARIA IS STRONGER, WISER

Peter Stoyanov and Todor Kavaldjiev, nominated by a united opposition, get 61.10% of the votes according to preliminary results announced by the Central Electoral Commission (CEC). Their opponents, Ivan Marazov and Irina Bokova nominated by the Socialists- dominated Together for Bulgaria alliance, win 38.90%. The electoral law places CEC under the obligation to announce the official results no later than three days after the elections.

Stoyanov said in the election day on Sunday Bulgarians showed they can choose their own political future in the most civilized way: through democratic elections. "Yesterday [Sunday] we clearly showed that we cherish the achievements of the civil society and conducted the elections with a tolerance for which many can only envy us," Stoyanov said adding that people also demonstrated a will for a change, for a better life and accession to the European values.

While stressing that the election by themselves cannot solve the severe problems of everyday life, Stoyanov voiced his hope that Bulgarians will succeed in overcoming all difficulties. "I promise to be one of you because all - men in the street and president alike - are equal before the hardships facing the nation," Stoyanov said in conclusion.

[05] PRESIDENT ZHELEV'S MESSAGE TO MRS LEAH RABIN

"I would like to express my deepest respect for the efforts, strength and unbending spirit of Yitzhak Rabin who managed to lay the groundwork of peace during the time of confrontation in the world," reads the message.

"Rabin's last message was 'peace'; he filled it with tragic content - his own life. I am convinced that we, all of his followers across the world and in Israel, will continue in his path in the name of everybody's right to a life of dignity and fulfilment," Zhelev says in his message.

[06] I.M.F. OFFICIALS MEET PRESIDENT ZHELEV

Bulgaria needs urgent measures to solve the economic problems and more specifically to restore the confidence in the Bulgarian lev, Mr Deppler told journalists after the meeting with the Bulgarian President. He believes that there are too many people changing lots of money in foreign exchange offices and this situation is difficult to handle.

The IMF is concerned over the condition of the banking sector and wants to help the government adopt a stiffer foreign exchange policy, said also Mr Deppler adding that he has asked the political support of the Bulgarian President for this. The steps aimed at restoring the confidence in the domestic currency are only part of a package of suggested measures for boosting the Bulgarian economy and Mr Deppler said it is the major mission of his visit.

It is possible that the IMF suggests to Bulgaria extreme steps for regaining the confidence in the lev like those implemented in Estonia, Lithuania and Argentina, Presidential Adviser Kiril Velev said after the meeting, dwelling on the specific measures proposed by the IMF. He said the essence of the IMF policy in the above three states was stringent and severe financial restrictions that quickly restored people's confidence in the national currencies. He went on to say that the policy of a fixed exchange rate has never to date failed.

[07] BULGARIA PRESENTS RATIFICATION INSTRUMENTS ON ACCESSION TO W.T.O.

The protocol on Bulgaria's accession to WTO is to enter into force on the 30th day after the instruments of ratification were presented, making Bulgaria a full member of the organization. In this capacity it will take part in the Ministerial Conference in Singapore on December 9-13, the Ministry said.

[08] BULGARIA TO TAKE PART IN INTERNATIONAL EXERCISE

Bulgaria will take part as an affected non-neighbour country represented by its Standing Commission for Management of Natural Disasters and Industrial Accidents, 12 ministries and agencies, three regions and four municipalities. The exercise will help to improve the readiness of the Standing Commission's special forces dealing with radioactive contamination, the press release said.

[09] COUNCIL OF EUROPE EXPERTS ASSESS BULGARIAN CULTURE POLICY

The agenda of the visit, to continue till November 9, includes meetings with the expert group that has drawn up the report, with Deputy Ministers of Culture Georgi Konstantinov and Alexander Palichev, with representatives of the Ministries of Education and Construction, of the Committee of Tourism, the Religious Affairs Directorate, the National Commission for UNESCO, the Municipality of Greater Sofia, the Bulgarian National Radio and TV, the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, the Unions of Bulgarian Writers, Translators and Artists, and other institutions and organizations. The CE delegation will also have talks with representatives of private production and music agencies and representatives of the Bulgarian entertainment industry.

On November 7-8 the guests will visit the Black Sea towns of Nessebur and Bourgas where they will meet local government officials and artists. Culture tourism will be a central issue at the talks.

[10] TRADE UNION IN FAVOUR OF DEBT RESCHEDULING TALKS

The central bank today said its foreign exchange reserves stood at 540.8 million dollars on October 31, down from about 1,100 million dollars at the beginning of the year.

The newly elected Bulgarian President should come into contact with the IMF without delay so as to keep tabs on negotiations, union representatives said. If talks are delayed, in the first quarter of 1997 Bulgaria will be bankrupt, Neikov told the news conference. United opposition candidate Peter Stoyanov won the presidential race on November 3 by a nearly 20 per cent margin over Socialist candidate Ivan Marazov.

Michael Deppler, Deputy Director of the IMF European Department, joined on Sunday IMF Mission Leader for Bulgaria Anne McGuirk. She has been here since Friday to review the progress of restructuring, macroeconomic indicators, banking reform, closures of loss-makers and the 1997 budget. The IMF officials will check if Bulgaria has met the IMF requirements for a second tranche of 115 million dollars under a standby arrangement.

[11] ECONOMIST IVAN ANGELOV ON CONDITION OF ECONOMY

The state institutions cannot or do not want to effect the macroeconomic and structural reforms, Angelov writes. Instead of implementing strictly the agreement with the International Monetary Fund, which was signed rather late anyway, and the program negotiated with the World Bank, the incumbents allowed a new delay, he states. Bulgaria is an illustrative example of how economic reforms should not be carried out, according to Professor Angelov.

The incumbents say that the current difficulties (high inflation and deteriorating living standards) were due to the decisive measures taken by the Government and the National Bank of Bulgaria in connection with the macroeconomic and structural reform and that stabilization and improvement of the situation will began soon. However this is not the case, Ivan Angelov says. The reforms and the consequences of their implementation accounted for not more than 45-50 percent (energy and fuel hikes, raised VAT, a 5 percent import tax) of the 190 percent inflation registered by late October. The remaining 140 percentage points were due to the six-year delay of reforms. If things go on like this in 1997 the situation will be even worse, Angelov states.

According to him, the situation requires urgent measures. These include quick clearing, announcing, and penalizing of: crimes in the banking system in the past 6-7 years; crimes related to tax evasion over the same period especially by the large state-owned and private companies (Special attention should be paid to the corruption of part of the tax and customs administration.) and in overseas partnerships in which the Bulgarian state has shares. The culprits for the ruin of Bulgarian agriculture in 1991-94 and for the bread crisis in 1995-96 and corrupted senior state officials should also be punished, Angelov says.

The three branches of power should closely cooperate so as to implement the above measures, Angelov says. This will restore the confidence both of the Bulgarian society and the international financial community in the state institutions because lately Bulgaria became notorious for its rampant crime and corruption. Western politicians and financiers hint that if Bulgaria does not take the necessary measures they will have to carry out preventive measures against Bulgaria and place it under quarantine, Angelov writes.

Ivan Angelov also proposes that the National Assembly and the Government undertake to improve the financial discipline, stabilize and rehabilitate the banking system, stabilize the national budget and accelerate the mass and especially the cash privatization.

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