YWS 12/29

Yugoslav Daily Survey Directory

From: ddc@nyquist.bellcore.com (D.D. Chukurov)

29. DECEMBER 1995. YUGOSLAV WEEKLY SURVEY

CONTENTS:

- CHINESE OFFICIALS ON YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT'S VISIT - FROM UNPROFOR TO IFOR - ON YUGOSLAV ECONOMIC ISSUES - UNHCR WORKS OUT PLAN FOR REPATRATION OF REFUGEES - MUJAHIDEEN POSE THREAT TO BOSNIA PEACE FORCE - BOSNIA'S ONLY HOPE FOR PEACE

COMMENTS

*CHINESE OFFICIALS SEE YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT'S VISIT AS MAJOR EVENT

Chinese officials and diplomats see Yugoslav President Zoran Lilic's recent visit to China as a tribute to its principled policy. They say it also shows how much Yugoslavia appreciates China's friendship and support, the reforms that China has undertaken and its opening to the world. Lilic's six-day visit to China, the first ever by a head of state of the Yugoslav federation of Serbia and Montenegro, was seen as a major event in Chinese-Yugoslav relations that will open a new page in the traditionally good cooperation between the two countries. Chinese officials missed no opportunity to say how pleased they were that Lilic's first visit abroad after the suspension of anti-Yugoslav sanctions and signing of the Bosnia peace accord in Paris was taking place in China. Reporting about the visit, the Chinese news agency "Xinhua" said Chinese leaders vowed to help Yugoslavia's return to the international community and world organizations. "We have a lot to learn from China", "Xinhua" quoted Lilic as saying when asked to comment his talks with Chinese officials. Chinese papers quoted Chinese President Jiang Zemin as saying during Lilic's visit that the traditionally strong friendship and cooperation between Yugoslavia and China had endured the test of time. Jiang said that Lilic's visit was very important for a further promotion of the friendly ties between the two countries. Chinese business circles expect that an agreement on stimulating and protecting foreign investments in Yugoslavia will make it possible for Chinese companies and enterpreneurs to appear on the Yugoslav market. Foreign Trade Minister Wu Yi said that Chinese-Yugoslav economic cooperation should focus on cooperation between individual companies for which the two countries' governments should prepare ground. ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, December 27, 1995)

*FROM UNPROFOR TO IFOR (by Milan Misic)

Diplomats have finished their work and handed the baton over to soldiers. Peace in Bosnia has been ratified, what remains is that it be implemented. The implementation began with a modest ceremony at the fog-wrapped Sarajevo airport, which signalled the end of the three-and-a-half- year mandate of the much criticized UNPROFOR and the beginning of the one-year mission of the lavishly vaunted IFOR. The OUN-emblem wearing blue helmets have been replaced by those wearing the green emblems of NATO, the most powerful military alliance known to history. The lightly armed forces of the United Nations played the role of "peace-keeper" in the circumstances of a chaotic and brutal war; the soldiers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are arriving in full military gear at the time when the barrels of the belligerents' guns were cooling after just established peace. "The new sheriff in town" believes that he will succeed because, among other things, he is using the experience of the old. And because he has a clearer goal and more adequate means. The UNPROFOR mission has been assess as unsuccessful - but for entirely wrong reasons. The fault most often found with it is that it has failed to stop the "Serbian aggression", prevent "ethnic cleansing", protect the "safe areas" and many other things in the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War Two. However, it would be difficult to disprove that UNPROFOR did not do maximum possible and maximum realistic considering the circumstances in which it acted. Its mission was, first and foremost, humanitarian, as well as manyfold, in that framework: the blue helmets were given too many tasks and too little resources to carry out them all. But even so, the military machine was not ready to fight, hence the impression of its impotence, as well as many ordeals, including humiliation, from the one-time tying to electricity poles by Bosnian Serbs to the recent looting of the barracks of the Bangladeshi battalion as it packed up to leave by the Muslim forces. UNPROFOR had an "impossible task", among other things because its mandate was defined by a series of over 40 resolutions of the United Nations Security Council, many of which were contradictory. The soldiers had civilian bosses, and when NATO was invited to help, the system of "double key" was applied etc. Over and above, the impression of the failure of the United Nations was created, as put out by an official, because it did not succumb to the hysteria whipped up in the world public opinion that "Serbs should be punished". IFOR, though, has three key advantages: the Peace Agreement, a clear military mandate and an impressive military power. The Peace Agreement has, none the less, adjusted the moral pontification of the outside world to Bosnian realities. The mandate consists of separating the former enemies physically long enough in order to make them see the foolishness and purposelessness of resorting to war once again and, by doing so, to create conditions for reconstructing the destroyed. Meanwhile, arms will be there to discourage potential saboteurs. The Balkan intervention of NATO, above all the involvement of the troops of the bellwether of that alliance, the United States, has aroused great polemics as to the meaning and purpose of that exercise. Controversies are not small, while the anxieties are great. The United States President invested in this operation his chances to be re- elected, while from a dying Cold War defensive treaty, NATO should resurrect in Bosnia in a new role of regional policeman. Accordingly, very much is at stake whence come great expectations, as well as even greater anxieties for, as put out by the United States Defence Secretary, "the success will be difficult, while failure will be catastrophic". ("Politika", Belgrade, December 22, 1995)

*ON YUGOSLAV ECONOMIC ISSUES

Yugoslav Economy in 1995

In 1995, Yugoslavia's GDP rose by 6.6 percent despite sanctions, financial difficulties and the war in its neighbourhood. Announcing the first official estimate of this year's economic performance in a statement to Tanjug Press Agency on Friday, Federal Statistics Bureau Director Milovan Zivkovic said that the GDP would stand at around 37.9 billion dinars (11.48 billion German marks). Generally speaking, the figures for 1995 are better than for 1994, Zivkovic said, but if we speak of prices, than the expectations were not met, because inflation will probably be around 119 percent. He explained that retail prices rose by an average of 6.7 percent a month and that, after a slowdown in November, they are expected to rise by up to 8 percent, because of various price levellings and end of the year price hikes. According to the first estimates, the cost of living will be 115 percent up on 1994, primarily because the costs of utility services increased by as much as 197 percent, and the costs of clothing and footwear by 162 percent, said Zivkovic. Food prices went up only 79 percent, due to very low rise in prices of green market produce. Asked to give the statistics for the standard of living in 1995, he said that in the last quarter of the year, Yugoslavs were worse off than in the same period last year, and that measured in terms of real income, living standards had dropped by 25 percent. The average income totalled 450 dinars, he said. Despite a nominal increase of 107 percent on 1994, real income has been reduced by inflation. In the state-owned sector, unemployment rose by three percent, but it dropped by six percent in the private sector, said Zivkovic. Experts of the Belgrade-based Economics Institute and the Institute for Economic Studies said that 1995 production would be 3.5 percent higher than in 1994. Zivkovic forecasts growth at nearly four percent. He said that when the international community imposed sanctions against Yugoslavia in 1992, per capita income was 3,050 dollars. It has now dropped to below 1,500 dollars, he said and added that the country would need between five and seven years to return to where it was in 1992. Commenting on the economic policy for 1996, Zivkovic said he was optimistic and that the results would certainly be better because companies would be able to employ their capacities to a greater extent now that the sanctions have been lifted. During the sanctions, most of Yugoslav companies operated at between 35 and 45 percent of their rated capacity. We are certainly heading for a better future, and I expect a major turnaround towards a revival of production and a higher GDP in 1996, which will in turn enable a significant rise in nominal and a better standard of living, he said.("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, December 25, 1995)

*Yugoslavia: Fourth-biggest G.N.P. Increase in Central, Eastern Europe

Yugoslavia has the fourth-biggest increase in Gross National Product in 1995 of all Central and Eastern European countries, Hungarian papers said on Thursday, quoting figures from a booklet released by the European Economic Office of the United Nations in Geneva. The booklet gives an analysis of economic growth in Europe in 1995. While G.N.P. in European Union countries increased only 2.75 percent, primarily as a result of the restrictive policy of the Maastricht Agreement, there was a real economic boom in Central and Eastern Europe. Poland heads the list with a G.N.P. of 6.5 percent, followed by Albania (6) and Romania (5.4). Yugoslavia and Slovenia share fourth and fifth place (5 each), and they are followed by the Czech Republic (4), and Croatia and Hungary (2 each). The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (minus 4) and Russia (minus 5), and Ukraine (minus 12) have recorded G.N.P. decreases. Local media explained Yugoslavia's unexpectedly high placing as a result of the vitality of its economy and a low figure for the last year. ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, December 22, 1995)

*Federal Budget will Amount 5.891 Billion Dinars

The Yugoslav parliament on Wednesday evening approved the federal bugdet for 1996 amounting to 5.89 billion dinars (about 1.2 billion dollars, one dollar = 4.72 dinars). Seventy-three point seven percent of the budget, i.e. 2.215 billion dinars, will cover the country's defense needs. Federal Defense Minister Pavle Bulatovic told parliament that, compared to other countries, this figure is very low and amounts to 58 dollars per capita and 5,000 dollars per soldier. Bulativic said that the military budget for 1996 is about 880 million dollars. He added that this amount is only seven percent of the social product, while the real defense needs are much higher and amount to 5.4 billion dinars. Bulatovic said that 77.5 percent will be sufficient to cover the real needs. He said that this is the defense sector's direct contribution to the economic stabilization of the country. Federal Vice-Prime Minister Jovan Zebic said that the other outstanding budgetary expenses will cover the pension and disability funds amounting to 443 million dinars, which makes up 81 percent of the budget together with the defense costs. Zebic said that 268 million dinars would be earmarked for the incomes in the federal administration, 229 million dinars for funding certain federal bodies, 122 million for the refugees and 72 million dinars for interventions in the economy. Zebic said that the budget would be financed out of real sources and would cover 9.5 percent of the social product. The 1996 social product will amount to 60, 218 billion dinars. ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belghrade, December 22, 1995)

*UNHCR WORKS OUT PLAN FOR REPATRATION OF REFUGEES IN FORMER YUGOSLAVIA

The office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has worked out a repatriation plan for refugees and displaced persons from the former Yugoslavia, it was announced at the U.N. headquarters in Geneva on Wednesday. The plan concerns more than two million refugees currently in the territory of the former Yugoslavia and about 700,000 people who have found shelter in Western Europe. The first of the three stages of the plan will include the return home of about 1.3 million refugees currently in Bosnia. The number includes 223,000 refugees living at present in the region of Banjaluka, 45,000 in the region of Bihac, 207,000 (mostly Serbs) in eastern Bosnia, 140,000 (mostly Muslims) in Sarajevo, 114,000 (mostly Serbs) in southern Bosnia, 282,000 Muslims in the region of Tuzla and 286,000 in the region of Zenica. The second stage will include the return of about 820,000 people who have found refuge in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Croatia, Slovenia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. According to UNHCR reports, Yugoslavia has given shelter to about 330,000 refugees, mostly Serbs from Bosnia and Krajina. The figure, however, is in sharp discrepancy with the statistics of other international humanitarian organizations, including the Red Cross Organization, whose estimates are around the figure of 650,000. There have been indications that the UNHCR may soon correct its own reports on the total number of refugees in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. According to the UNHCR, Croatia currently has 228,000 refugees - about 30,000 Muslims, while the rest are Croats. Twenty-four thousand refugees have found shelter in Slovenia and 6,500 in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. The final stage of the repatriation plan will include the return home of estimated 700,000 refugees from Western European countries. The cost of the entire operation has been assessed at about 500 million dollars. The international migration organization, the Red Cross and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are expected to take part in the operation. The UNHCR plans to start the operation in early spring but well-informed sources in Geneva believe that real repatriation might start no sooner than in 1997. The sources said that the OSCE was planning to organize elections in the whole of Bosnia next summer and that it was considering the possiblity of having votes of the refugees posted. This indicates that the organizers of the elections are already aware that very few refugees will be able to return home by next summer. ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, December 21, 1995)

*MUJAHIDEEN POSE THREAT TO BOSNIA PEACE FORCE (by Scott Peterson)

Islamic "holy warriors" fighting in Bosnia's civil war remain beyond the control of the government and could pose lethal difficulties for NATO peacekeepers, though the Balkan peace deal signed last week forbids their presence. Fundamentalist Muslim veterans from Afghanistan, and soldiers from Sudan, Egypt and other Islamic nations, have served in the Bosnian army during much of the three-and-a-half- year Bosnian war. But with the new peace their presence away from the front line has turned to one of menace. Though the peace accord calls for such foreign "freedom fighters" and mercenaries - all known locally as mujahideen - to be withdrawn from Bosnia within 30 days of its signing, which took place in Paris last week, United Nations officials say some of the mujahideen have been issued with Bosnian passport. Many also entered Bosnia with U.N. identity cards, posing as relief workers with Islamic aid agencies. They have trained a hard core of Bosnian followers - men distinguished on the battlefield as shock troops against the Serbs and Croats, but answering to no government authority. The territory transferred to NATO control on Wednesday, but animosity towards any western force runs deep. If the arriving American troops believe that Serbs will be their biggest problem in Bosnia, they will soon discover what British units have already learned; that the mujahideen are a law unto themselves. Tension in the area has been high, sparked by an incident on October 5 in which a British soldiers killed one of the mujahideen in self defence. The result has been a low-level terrorist campaign that has British forces locked in a war of nerves. The worst incident occurred when a group of senior British officers, led by a Bosnian army divisional commander, stumbled into a unit of 40 mujahideen at the end of October. According to witnesses, the group barely escaped with their lives, and had prepared to fight their way out. Those involved said that, with rocket-propelled grenades aimed at their heads, it would have been a "losing battle". "The Bosnian army's Third Corps has always been out of control", said one senior British officer. "We have never had problem with anyone else, but the Third Corps command structure doesn't seem to work". As a precaution, soldiers have been masking their Union flags and British licence plates with tape. The Bosnian government - led by moderate Muslims, but grateful to the mujahideen for their support during wartime when few western countries were bothered to check the Serb and Croat advances and ethnic "cleansing" - has promised to purge its military ranks of Islamic fighters. But few believe that it will, even if it could. The dilemma was evident this week during a military parade in Zavidovici 20 miles north-east of Zenica. The show of strength was meant to be a celebration of the peace agreement, with more than 1,000 Third Corps soldiers turned out in the sleet. As regular soldiers stood to attention, one company of extremist Muslim fighters began to chant "Allahu akbar" (God is great), raising their assault rifles above their heads. They wore black and green headbands and tell-tale long beards. Their unit flag was black and pointed with inscriptions from the Koran. The crowd did not follow their lead, and stood silently. ("The Daily Telegraph", London, December 22, 1995)

* BOSNIA'S ONLY HOPE FOR PEACE

Charles Krauthammer's suggestion ("Defining Success in the Balkans", op-ed, December 8.) that U.S forces should arm and train the Bosnian Muslims, "leaving behind a state that is capable of self-defense", ignores two important facts. First, the warring factions in Bosnia, including the Muslims, are already armed to the teeth. Second, the military balance in Bosnia is about as level as it will ever get. Since the war began, arms have poured into Bosnia despite the embargo. Today, the Bosnian Serb army is unable to pose any significant threat to the Bosnian Muslims or Croats - as evidenced by their major defeats on the battlefield recently. Tipping the balance of power in favour of the Bosnian Muslims would merely encourage them to continue their war against the Bosnian Serbs and attempt to conquer more Serb-inhabited territory. Experience show that pouring weapons into a civil war ensures its continuation. For example, the terrible death and destruction in Afghanistan today is a legacy of the misguided policies of the 1980s, when the Soviet Union and United States took sides in the conflict and supplied weapons to the warring factions. Instead of arming the Bosnian Muslims, the West should pressure them to abandon their goal of a Muslim ruled unitary state and to accept an equitable division of territory. It is not too late to recognize that a unitary Bosnia is a fantasy and that Bosnia's partition is an inevitable consequence of Yugoslavia's disintegration. The only hope for lasting peace is that Bosnia's new borders under the Dayton Agreement become the good fences that make good neighbours.( Sgd.George Tintor,"Washington Post", December 12, 1995)