YDS 12/8 (1st)

Yugoslav Daily Survey Directory

From: ddc@nyquist.bellcore.com (D.D. Chukurov)

08. DECEMBER 1995. YUGOSLAV WEEKLY SURVEY

CONTENTS:

- RETURN TO EUROPE - ECONOMIC RELINKING OF FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLICS - NEW CENSUS OF REFUGEES IN YUGOSLAVIA - SLOVENIA'S CHANGE OF TACK TOWARDS YUGOSLAVIA - ARRESTS OF SERBS IN CROATIA - ALLAH'S WARRIORS - UNDESIRABLE - U.S. CONCERN OVER MUJAHEDIN IN BOSNIA GROWING

COMMENTS

RETURN TO EUROPE (by Slobodan Lazarevic)

The European Union has suspended sanctions on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The embargo on all trade and other relations with our country ceased to apply by the decision the Foreign Ministers of the European Fifteen took in Brussels. The decision is of multiple importance. This will be borne out in the coming period as well. However, two aspects of the decision have already become evident. Viewed from the political angle, the Foreign Ministers of the European Fifteen have confirmed that the FR of Yugoslavia has a first-rate role in the peaceful termination of the civil war in the former Yugoslavia. Yet, the real, far-reaching and diversely positive effects of the lifting of the embargo by the European Union are primarily in the economic field. To begin with, mention should be made of only some of the circumstances. First and foremost, one should recall that the European Union possesses the largest economic potential in the present-day world. The market of the Old Continent has an impressive buying power. The EU 1992 per capita social product stood at US$15,146. Prior to 1991, 54.6 per cent of Yugoslavia's exports went to Europe's market (EU and EFTA). There existed a high level of technological cooperation and intensive traffic and energy links, too. Secondly, the former Yugoslavia had very diversified cooperation with the European Community. More precisely, as early as 1991, the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was for all practical purposes already "in the ante-chamber" of a EU associate member. (Some even claim that it could have easily won a full-fledged membership). The disintegration of the former Yugoslavia annulled it all; the European Union imposed an embargo on the FR of Yugoslavia, while the "gain" of the secessionist Republics were some of the facilities already granted to the SFR of Yugoslavia. In practice, they did not succeed in joining fully the European integration even though they had claimed that this was a reason for abandoning the former Yugoslavia. Those who expected Europe to welcome them with stretched hands have been left outside. It will be no surprise if some secessionist Republics re-ignite hope that they will offset the imbalances and deficits they have with the much more restrictive West on the market of the FR of Yugoslavia and the entire Balkans all over again. Life is full of absurd stories: even those to whom the former Yugoslavia was allegedly an obstacle to enter Europe are now trying to enter Europe over the market of the FR of Yugoslavia!? And thirdly, the decision of the European Fifteen comes at the time when the Yugoslav economy is registering first positive effects of the implementation of Programme Two of the Governor of the National Bank of Yugoslavia, Dr. Dragoslav Avramovic. The quintessence of the Programme is the streamlining of Yugoslav companies to make them more competitive on the world market. If the backbone of the "superdinar" and Programme One in cutting hyperinflation was to stop printing money to finance budget deficit, the backbone of Programme Two is to create a competitive Yugoslav "export package" which would guarantee the convertibility of the dinar by positive trade and payments balances. What are possible benefits of the suspension of sanctions by the European Union? Here are only three examples: opportunities have been created for the economy of the FR of Yugoslavia in the field of trade to win a favourable treatment for its exports, without tarrifs and quantity limitations, "ceilings", quotas etc. Next, our goal must be to re-establish our right to use the resources from the remaining financial protocols. And finally, we must see to it that the FR of Yugoslavia is included in PHARE (programme of technical assistance to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe) financed directly from the budget of the European Union. And instead of a conclusion, one final remark: no country has as yet "joined the world" successfully without putting its own (economic) house in order. And the suspension of sanctions by the European Union has created yet another important chain link to confirm the validity and success of Programme Two. Yet, many excuses are now no longer valid: more and more things are in our own hands. ("Politika Ekspres", Belgrade, December 6, 1995)

ECONOMIC RELINKING OF FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLICS IS INEVITABLE

The relinking of the Yugoslav economy with those of the former Yugoslav republics becomes inevitable after the suspension of the economic sanctions, Director-General of the Yugoslav bank "Jugobanka D.D. Beograd" Milos Milosavljevic has said. Speaking at Tanjug's panel discussion, Milosavljevic said that the revival of economic trends was expected to begin in the field of in frastructure. Communications must first be established in road, railway and air traffic, PTT links and electric power systems. The field of infrastructure will be regulated by agreements between public companies at the state level. The linking of economic subjects should also begin, but this will be slightly more difficult, especially in parts of the former Yugoslavia torn by war for the past four years. Yugoslavia will have to make a good balance in its trade with the former Yugoslav republics, since its situation will not allow for import to exceed export, Milosavljevic said. Serious discussions about who owes what to whom will begin with the normalization of political relations. The basic principle is that everyone has to pay for what he owes, Milosavljevic said and added that international institutions also insist on this. Thus, in the agreement on a stand-by arrangement with Macedonia, the International Monetary Fund sets a condition that final debtors had to accept their share of obligations and that the state should stand behind them as the guarantor. Any other approach would create confusion in the debtor-creditor relations and this is why Yugoslavia too will demand that this principle be implemented. Milosavljevic said that the payment of debts would be one of the key issues in Yugoslavia's relations with the world, now, after the suspension of the sanctions. The signing of an agreement with international financial institutions will depend on this, according to announcements. According to Federal Government figures, the obligations towards foreign countries amount to about four billion dollars. With interests which have matured as of January 1, 1992, they amount to eight billion dollars. The best period for buying debts is gone. Prices have increased immediately after the Dayton agreement was signed, Milosavljevic said. Yugoslavia would certainly jeopardize current reproduction if it started to service its debt immediately without rescheduling. It is impossible to finance country's obligations created under an embargo and simultaneously revive production which the embargo has completely exhausted. The association of Yugoslavia's banks has proposed that the Federal Government adopt a law or regulation under which courts could not settle law suits until the end of talks with international financial organizations about the rescheduling of the Yugoslav debt. If we do not do so, Yugoslavia would face a total blockade of the otherwise scarce hard currency funds. Debtors can pay only if they are enabled to produce and export, Milosavljvic said. ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, November 24, 1995)

NEW CENSUS OF REFUGEES IN YUGOSLAVIA TO ESTABLISH THEIR REAL NUMBER (by Vera Raskov)

The Serbian Commissariat for Refugees is planning a new census of refugees that is aimed at securing a more adequate assistance of international humanitarian organizations, commissioner Bratislava Morina told Tanjug on Thursday. "After reaching a peace agreement in Dayton and announcing the repatriation of refugees from the territory of former Yugoslavia, we plan to organize a new census of refugees in agreement with the Belgrade office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), because we believe Serbia currently has at least 200,000 unregistered refugees and displaced persons," Morina said. The Commissariat and the Serbian government thus intend to prove that there are much more refugees than the 330,000 the UNHCR has been providing for so far. It is believed that a large number of refugees will decide to stay in Yugoslavia, in which case more assistance will be needed from the international community and its humanitarian organizations, Morina said. The establishing of the exact number of refugees is highly important before the program of their repatriation is put into practice. "When I speak about the return of refugees, I naturally always mean that such decision is voluntary, and the new census should by no means cause apprehension among refugees," Morina said. The program of repatriation of refugees will be implemented according to plan and will not begin before next spring. "Most realistic is to expect first the return of refugees from the Republika Srpska (Bosnian Serb Republic) because that territory is offering the greatest possibility for their safe return. The Yugoslav and Bosnian Serb governments will coordinate their work in that respect and the international community will help," Morina said. According to the latest reports, there are currently about 619,000 registered refugees in Yugoslavia but another 211,000 who fled the Croatian offensive on the Republic of Serb Krajina last August should also be added to get the real number of refugees. In the meantime, a winter refugee program is being implemented for the Serb Krajina refugees, said Morina, adding that the UNHCR had already provided fuels and earmarked 2,135,368 dollars for repairing 105 facilities. The organization has also promised to provide one million dollars to help Krajina refugees through the winter period and another one million dollars to equip facilities where they are to be accomodated, Morina said. "I hope that, after the suspension of sanctions against Yugoslavia, bilateral cooperation will expand, particularly with countries which have so far shown good will and much solidarity in dealing with problems of accomodation of nearly 700,000 refugees under the regime of sanctions," she said. The United Nations Security Council on November 22 suspended indefinitely the comprehensive and binding sanctions that it had imposed on the Yugoslav republics of Serbia and Montenegro in May 1992 over their alleged involvement in the civil war in neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina. ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, December 1, 1995)

SLOVENIA'S SUDDEN CHANGE OF TACK TOWARDS YUGOSLAVIA (by Igor Saranovic)

Slovenia again surprised the international and confused its own public opinion with its unexpected recognition of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and its statement that FRY conducted a truly peaceful policy. Slovenia's strategic, politcal and economic interests led it to adopt its new stand towards Belgrade, to which it had for years shown national and political animosity, and which it had done its utmost to discredit with the international community. Slovenian diplomats explained their decision to recongise Yugoslavia with the fact that after the Dayton accord on Bosnia the international community radically improved its stand towards the federation of Serbia and Montenegro. The abrupt change of Slovenia's stand towards Yugoslavia - from pronounced animosity to full normalisation of relations - is explained by Slovenian Foreign Minister Zoran Thaler as Ljubljana's attempt to avoid the "recognition package" that all states formed in the territory of the former Yugoslavia are expected to accept at the Paris meeting in mid-December. The Slovenain leadership is trying to soften the justified lack of affection felt for Slovenia by the majority of Serbs and Montenegrins whom it persistently demonised with the all-out support of Slovenian media. The messages of reconciliation that Slovenia is so loudly sending to Belgrade are more a result of the rapid changes of the situation in the former Yugoslavia and the realization of leading politcal centers that F. R.Y., the continuation of the former Yugoslavia, is a very important factor of peace and stability in the entire region, than of Ljubljana leadership's decision to acknowledge its mistaken strategy so far. The present Slovenian leadership, headed by President Milan Kucan, which had until recently called for indirect military force to be imposed on Yugoslavia in addition to the political-economic restrictions, has in now way changed the essence of its traditional, hard-core anti-Serb and anti-Yugoslav position. Slovenia's haste to recognise the successor of the former Yugoslavia before all its ex-republics is at the same time an attempt to seize the last chance to keep at least a morcel of the economic market in the territory of Serbia and Montenegro. Before secession Slovenia's exports to the area stood at some three billion dollars while the present trade volume, mostly conducted via Macedonia, is only seven million dollars. ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, December 3, 1995)

* * *

Welcoming Sunday the government decision, the most influential Slovenian daily "Delo" wrote that the breaking up of the former Yugoslavia was a mistake. "The breaking up of Yugoslavia constituted the most terrible fall so far, not so much in the material sense, although the unemployed would have much to say on this matter, but primarily in the spiritual sense of quality of life, and especially in the moral sense", the "Delo" commentary said. The paper asks why should Slovenia try to force its way into Europe while its approaching the Western European institutions was being checked by the neighboring Italy over the dispute concerning the property of expelled Italians after world war II from Slovenia when Europe was interested solely in Slovenia's cheap labour. "Recognition of Yugoslavia - although it could mean a "no" to Europe and "hello" to the Balkans - is at the same time a recognition of inter-dependence, the key term of modern societies", said the commentary of the Slovenian newspaper which also sets out that recognition of Yugoslavia "should be welcomed equally by nationalists and patriots". ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, December 3, 1995)

ARRESTS OF SERBS IN CROATIA - ANOTHER FORM OF ETHNIC CLEANSING (by Nikola Stanojevic)

Hardly a day goes by without the announcement of a list of Serbs sentenced by summary procedure from two to twelve years imprisonment under charges of committing armed rebellion. The Serbs were captured in the Croatian August offensive "Storm" on the Republic of Serb Krajina, a state proclaimed by Serbs in Croatia in 1991 in response to the republic's secession from the former Yugoslavia. They surrendered to the Croatian authorities, hoping to be amnestied, as promised by Croatian President Franjo Tudjman. However, the authorities are ignoring the promise. About 12 to 15 Serbs are put to trial and sentenced every day. They might as well pronounce at once a sentence to all of the 1,300 Serb prisoners believed to be in Croatian jails, seeing the charges are the same. This would put an end to the farce with which the regime, under the veil of trials, attempts to conceal its chief motive - the desire to convince the Serbs that there is no returning to Croatia for them. Arrests of "spies", ransacking of Serb homes in Croatia serve the same purpose. The publication of the names of the suspects, whose sentence has been pronounced upon the arrest, puts the suspects' families, who are also questioned by police, into a difficult situation. The Zagreb daily "Vjesnik" has published an article about the remaining Serbs in Croatia, entitled the "New Zenith". The daily said "it is painful for Croatian citizens to know that the Croatian society is full of Serb, and not only Serb, spies and agents... every adult Croat is aware that this had been the case over the past fifty years in (former) Yugoslavia." The daily said it was "better to know their (Serb spies) names and have them in jail" than to have them "plant bombs in trams and sports centers tomorrow, when peace has only just come." After the August aggression, all guarantees by the Croatian authorities and President Tudjman to the Serbs in Krajina were a farce for the international community. The arrest of Serbs is an attestation of the official policy - to purge Croatia of the remaining Serbs. Trials, arrests and job dismissals - all teachers from mixed marriages have been dismissed in Knin, the adminstrative center of Krajina - might answer the question posed by a Jew in Zagreb at a recent conference on racism and xenophobia, "who will be the Serbs after the Serbs in Croatia". The 12-13 percent of Serbs inhabiting Krajina before the oubreak of the war have been boiled down to two or three percent. About 250,000 Serbs fled northern and southern Krajina before the Croatian army onslaught in August. Croatian troops killed innocent civilians who failed to find shelter and arrested those hiding in the woods on charges of armed rebellion. They sacked and burned most of the Serb houses. The Croatians that plundered, burned and killed innocent Serb civilians throughout Krajina have not been put to trial, they have obviously been pardoned by official Zagreb. Croatian authorities say the war is over, now that a peace accord has been negotiated in Dayton, and that the time of hatred is passed. However, hatred still moves Croatia's policy, as the mass Serb trials and the discovery of "spies" attest, enriching the process for cleansing Croatia until it is ethnically pure. Some legal experts have said the international public should become involved. ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, December 1, 1995)

FROM FOREIGN PRESS

ALLAH'S WARRIORS - UNDESIRABLE (by Dragan Milosavljevic)

Allah's warriors should leave the frontlines of the "Holy War" in Bosnia-Herzegovina as soon as possible. The Berlin paper "Die Welt am Sonntag" gave the main reason why Western public opinion no longer had any understanding or sympathies for the presence of mercenaries in Bosnia-Herzegovina, where their role had been until recently romanticized and covered with a veil of mystery. "Die Welt am Sonntag" said "the Pentagon is concerned because of the danger to the U.S. peace forces in Bosnia from Islamic fighters who are now deployed in areas which should be controlled by the U.S. forces". "Die Welt am Sonntag" specified that the U.S. administration "describes non-Bosnian Muslim fighters as authentic terrorists," and Western media describe them as "dangerous Islamic extremists from Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Libya, Pakistan, Malaysia, and Egypt." It is a fact, however, that even certain Western reporters had provided irrefutable proof of the cruelty of mujaheddin and their horrendous crimes against the Serb civilian population. NATO is about to begin its biggest and most complex operation so far following the initialling of the Bosnia accords in Dayton, Ohio. The alliance is thus making it clear that the Islamic military and political factor no longer has a pass for this area, where the United States will stage-manage not only the fate of the Balkans, but also strengthen its role as supreme arbiter in European affairs, European commentators have assessed. The U.S. news agency Associated Press said the now undesirable Allah's warriors, who were the mainstay of Bosnian Muslim leader Alija Izetbegovic, were trained by former U.S. officers of special forces during the war at a base near the town of Lukavica, close to Zenica in central Bosnia-Herzegovina. The 9th Muslim brigade is deployed some 15 km from the northeastern Bosnian town of Tuzla, where the U.S. force headquarters will be stationed, Associated Press said, indicating the dangerous implications of the continued presence of mujaheddin on the NATO mission. As U.S. President Bill Clinton recently told U.S. troops who were heading for Bosnia, NATO forces need not hesitate to use force, if attacked, against any of the sides in the civil war. German press, quoting the U.S. Defense Secretariat, said Washington admitted it did not have much hope that the Bosnian government was at all willing to get the Islamic groups to leave. It is believed, rather, that the Islamic fighters will be covered up as members of Bosnian Muslim army units, German papers said. Washington has information that there are elements in the Muslim government in Bosnia-Herzegovina which do not want to part company with these Islamic fighters, fanatics. ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, December 5, 1995)

U.S. CONCERN OVER MUJAHEDIN IN BOSNIA GROWING

U.S. dailies "The New York Times" and "The Washington Post", as well as military planners in the Pentagon, have at the time of the arrival of U.S. troops to Bosnia-Herzegovina "discovered" that thousands of Islamic warriors - mujahedin - fought in Bosnia and that they could be a genuine threat to the incoming U.S. troops. The mujahedin, "The New York Times" said, fought together with the troops of the Muslim Sarajevo authorities against the Serbs and Croats, but their attention would now be directed towards the Western troops, especially the Americans, whom they believe to be the arch enemy of their faith. One mujahedin told a U.S. reporter near the town of Zenica that U.S. tanks would not scare the mujahedin. He said that they have come to Bosnia to die for the cause of Islam, that Bosnia was a Muslim country and that Muslims should defend it, that there were 400 of them on that particular place at the time and that they all prayed to Allah that one day they would become martyrs. The "The New York Times" claims there were between 3,000 and 4,000 mujahedin in Bosnia, mostly war veterans from Afghanistan. The daily warns, as does also of late U.S. military experts and intelligence services, that there was no guarantee that the Muslim Sarajevo authorities would undertake the necessary steps to make these mercenary groups and formations leave Bosnia as insisted on also by the peace agreement reached in Dayton, Ohio, on November 21. The paper said the mujahedin was being protected by the Muslim authorities in Sarajevo and that it was not known who exactly controlled them. It was possible, the paper said, that some of these troops were acting on their own. The paper said also that a large number of mujahedin carried with them i.d. cards and passports issued by the French authorities. A Western civilian official in Bosnia told a "New York Times" reporter the mujahedin were seizing jeeps and other U.N. vehicles as the local police and army looked on. U.N. officials, "The New York Times" said, humanitarian organizations from Islamic countries, together with the mujahedin and other religious fanatics, were trying in Bosnia-Herzegovina to create a strong military network of Islamic staff and strongholds so as to preclude any Western and Christian influence. One of these organizations is from Egypt and called "International Humane Aid" and whose 40 members were wanted for terrorism by the Egyptian authorities. The mujahedin, as "The New York Times" said, managed to launch a war of nerves with the British peacekeepers in Bosnia. After the killing of a mujahedin, who was shot in self-defense by a British soldier, the mujahedin have threatned to retaliate. U.N. humanitarian worker William Jefferson, from the U.S., recently murdered near Banovici, northeastern Bosnia, was, according to the paper, killed by the mujahedin who probably thought he was British. After that the majority of British civilians left Zeniuca, central Bosnia, while those who stayed on worked and lived there under constant military escort, said "The New York Times". ("Tanjug's Daily Bulletin", Belgrade, December 3, 1995)