Voice of America, 98-10-16

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] COMPLYING WITH THE KOSOVO AGREEMENT: A NATO BY JUDITH LATHAM (WASHINGTON)

[02] FRIDAY EDITORIALS BY CHALLISS MCDONOUGH (WASHINGTON)

[03] GERMANY / KOSOVO (L ONLY) BY SUZANNE KELLY (BONN)

[04] KOSOVO/SERBIA BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (WASHINGTON)

[05] KOSOVO/SERBIA BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (WASHINGTON)

[06] NATO / KOSOVO (S) BY RON PEMSTEIN (BRUSSELS)

[07] NATO / KOSOVO (S) BY RON PEMSTEIN (BRUSSELS)

[08] NY ECON WRAP (S & L) BY ELAINE JOHANSON (NEW YORK)

[09] U-S-KOSOVO (L) BY GIL BUTLER (EASTERN SHORE)

[10] YUGO / MEDIA PROTEST (L ONLY) BY ART CHIMES (BELGRADE)

[11] YUGO / O-S-C-E (L) BY ART CHIMES (BELGRADE)

[12] YUGO / O-S-C-E (S) BY ART CHIMES (BELGRADE)

[13] YUGO-VERIFICATION (S-ONLY) BY ART CHIMES (BELGRADE)

[01] COMPLYING WITH THE KOSOVO AGREEMENT: A NATO BY JUDITH LATHAM (WASHINGTON)

PERSPECTIVE TELEPHONE=619-3464
EDITOR=KEVIN LYNCH
CONTENT= (TAPE CUTS IN AUDIO SERVICES)

INTRO: TOP NATO OFFICIALS TOLD YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC TODAY/YESTERDAY/ON FRIDAY TO COMPLY WITH UNITED NATIONS DEMANDS FOR A WITHDRAWAL OF FORCES FROM KOSOVO. THE ORIGINAL DEADLINE WAS SET FOR SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, BUT NATO IS EXPECTED TO GIVE MR. MILOSEVIC AN EXTRA 10 DAYS TO COMPLY WITH INTERNATIONAL DEMANDS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS REPORTS FROM KOSOVO THAT YUGOSLAVIA HAS BEEN VIOLATING THE KOSOVO PEACE AGREEMENT MADE

TEXT: ROBERT WALKER, SENIOR ADVISOR AT THE RAND CORPORATION IN WASHINGTON, D-C, WAS THE U-S AMBASSADOR TO NATO FROM JULY 1993 UNTIL JANUARY OF THIS YEAR. AMBASSADOR WALKER SAYS THAT, ALTHOUGH HE WELCOMES A KOSOVO PEACE ACCORD, THERE MAY BE SERIOUS PROBLEMS WITH ENFORCEMENT.

TAPE: CUT ONE -- WALKER "IT IS CERTAINLY GOOD TO HAVE AN AGREEMENT THAT WILL BRING THE FIGHTING TO A HALT, PARTICULARLY THE SERBIAN SLAUGHTER OF INNOCENTS IN KOSOVO PROVINCE. IT IS GOOD TO HAVE A COMMITMENT FROM THE GOVERNMENT IN BELGRADE TO NEGOTIATIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF KOSOVO, AND IT'S GOOD TO HAVE INSPECTORS ON THE GROUND, NUMBERING ABOUT 2,000 FROM THE ORGANIZATION OF SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE. BUT WHAT ONE WORRIES ABOUT, HOWEVER, IS WHETHER THE LEADER OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA, MR. MILOSEVIC, ACTUALLY WILL CARRY THROUGH THESE AGREEMENTS, WHETHER HE WILL FACILITATE TO THEIR HOME THE RETURN OF REFUGEES, WHICH HE ACTUALLY CREATED, WHETHER HE WILL REALLY PULL OUT HIS MILITARY AND POLICE FORCES IN THE PROVINCE. I REGRET THE EARLY REPORTS THAT ABOUT 19,000 OF 20,000 OF THEM ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO REMAIN IN KOSOVO, WHICH IS AN INTIMIDATING PRESENCE. WE REMAIN TO SEE WHETHER MILOSEVIC WILL ACTUALLY NEGOTIATE SERIOUSLY ABOUT THE FUTURE OF KOSOVO. SO, I THINK THIS AGREEMENT IS A MIXTURE OF GOOD AND NOT SO GOOD, AND ONLY TIME IS GOING TO TELL WHETHER IT LEADS AWAY FROM WAR AND TOWARDS PEACE.

TEXT: AMBASSADOR WALKER SAYS HE QUESTIONS HOW EFFECTIVE O-S-C-E MONITORS WILL BE AND WHETHER NATO WOULD ACTUALLY USE FORCE, IF MR. MILOSEVIC FAILS TO COMPLY WITH THE AGREEMENT.

TAPE: CUT TWO -- WALKER "I DON'T BELIEVE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WILL BE ABLE TO ENFORCE THE AGREEMENT WITH UP TO 2,000 UNARMED OBSERVERS ON THE GROUND. AND ALSO THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SERIOUS QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER NATO WOULD EMPLOY AIR POWER OR ANY OTHER KIND OF MILITARY FORCE TO BACK UP THIS AGREEMENT. I NOTE, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THE NATO ALLIES ONLY TOOK THE DECISION ACTUALLY TO USE FORCE AFTER IT HAD BECOME APPARENT THAT THERE WAS ABOUT TO BE AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE U-S NEGOTIATOR MR. HOLBROOKE AND PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC. SO, WE STILL DO NOT KNOW, WILL THE NATO ALLIES ACT IF THIS AGREEMENT DOESN'T WORK?"

TEXT: (OPT) IT APPEARS, AMBASSADOR WALKER SAYS, THAT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC IS THE "BIG WINNER" OF THE KOSOVO ACCORD.

TAPE: CUT THREE -- WALKER "HE WAS ABOUT TO END THE FIGHTING ANYWAY, BECAUSE WEATHER IS COMING IN. HE HAS SEEN THE THREATS NOT IMPLEMENTED BY NATO OVER MONTHS IN EFFECT DESTROY THE POLITICAL OPPOSTION IN YUGOSLAVIA. HE HAS OBSERVERS ON THE GROUND WHO ARE THERE FRANKLY AS MUCH TO MAKE SURE THAT THE KOSOVO LIBERATION ARMY DOESN'T RESTART THE FIGHTING AS TO KEEP THE FORCES OF YUGOSLAVIA. SO, ON INITIAL READING, MILOSEVIC HAS GAINED EVERYTHING HE TRIED TO ACHIEVE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, NATO IN PARTICULAR, WILL ACHIEVE ITS GOALS, AND ALSO WHETHER THE ALBANIAN MAJORITY IN KOSOVO PROVINCE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO LEAD PRODUCTIVE LIVES. SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 250,000 AND 500,000 OF THEM ARE LIVING OUT IN THE WOODS AT THIS POINT, FACING DESPERATE CIRCUMSTANCES. SO, RIGHT NOW ON BALANCE, I'D HAVE TO SAY MILOSEVIC CAME OUT AHEAD AND A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE TO DO A LOT OF WORK TO HELP THE PEOPLE WHO ARE TRULY SUFFERING." (END OPT)

TEXT: ANOTHER PROBLEM, ACCORDING TO AMBASSADOR WALKER, IS THAT NATO WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO EXERT A LONG-TERM CREDIBLE THREAT OF FORCE SUFFICIENT TO COMPEL MR. MILOSEVIC TO COMPLY.

TAPE: CUT FOUR -- WALKER "I THINK IT'S AN AGREEMENT WHICH DID AT LEAST GET THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S FOOT IN THE DOOR, SO TO SPEAK, AND DID GET NATO ON THE HOOK FOR TRYING TO MAKE THIS WORK. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF WILL POWER ON THE PART OF OUTSIDERS, INCLUDING THE WESTERN NATIONS, INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES, THAT WILL BE REQUIRED. MILOSEVIC CLEARLY HAS THE WILL POWER TO CONFOUND THIS AGREEMENT, TO BRUTALIZE THE PEOPLE OF KOSOVO, TO DEMONSTRATE TO PEOPLE IN HIS OWN COUNTRY THAT HE IS THE VICTOR AND EVERYONE ELSE HAS BEEN DEFEATED. SO, THIS IS GOING TO REQUIRE STEADINESS, COMMITMENT, WILL POWER, LEADERSHIP. I THINK IT'S MORE THAN JUST THE PEOPLE OF KOSOVO AT STAKE, IT'S ALSO THE NATO ALLIANCE THAT'S GOING TO BE A STAKE FOR A LONG TIME IN MAKING SURE THAT THEY FOLLOW THROUGH ON WHAT THEY'VE BEGUN."

TEXT: ROBERT WALKER, FORMER U-S AMBASSADOR TO NATO, ON THE HIGH STAKES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -- IF YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT FAILS TO COMPLY WITH THE THE KOSOVO AGREEMENT.
16-Oct-98 12:20 PM EDT (1620 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] FRIDAY EDITORIALS BY CHALLISS MCDONOUGH (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: U-S EDITORIAL WRITERS HAVE FOCUSED THEIR ATTENTION AGAIN ON WASHINGTON. CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENT HAVE REACHED AN AGREEMENT ON THE BUDGET AFTER WEEKS OF HAGGLING AND SEVERAL INTERIM SPENDING MEASURES TO KEEP THE GOVERNMENT UP AND RUNNING.

OTHER ISSUES HAVE ALSO SURFACED ON THE EDITORIAL PAGES. THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY HAS SPARKED COMMENT, AS HAS A SENATE PROPOSAL TO REVIEW THE U-S CUBA POLICY. HERE IS ________________ TO GIVE US A CLOSER LOOK AND A FEW EXCERPTS WITH TODAY'S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

TEXT: FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY 30 YEARS, THE U-S GOVERNMENT IS LOOKING AT A BUDGET SURPLUS -- ONE WORTH 70-BILLION DOLLARS. SO FOR WEEKS, CONGRESS AND THE PRESIDENT HAVE BEEN SQUABBLING OVER HOW TO SPEND IT.

THURSDAY'S BUDGET DEAL IS THE TOP ISSUE ON MANY EDTIORIAL PAGES. CONGRESS HAS PASSED A 500-BILLION-DOLLAR SPENDING PACKAGE THAT INCLUDES MANY OF PRESIDENT CLINTON'S PRIORITY ITEMS. THE PACKAGE HAS ALMOST 18-BILLION-DOLLARS WORTH OF NEW FUNDING FOR THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. IT PUTS OFF SOME OF THE MOST CONTENTIOUS ITEMS -- LIKE THE CENSUS, CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM, TOBACCO LEGISLATION AND A MEDICAL PATIENTS' BILL OF RIGHTS -- FOR A LATER FIGHT.

THE BUDGET DEAL IS THE LAST MAJOR PIECE OF LEGISLATION EXPECTED TO PASS BEFORE THE 105TH CONGRESSIONAL SESSION ENDS AND MANY LAWMAKERS GO HOME TO RUN FOR OFFICE AGAIN. A NUMBER OF U-S PAPERS ARE TAKING CONGRESS TO TASK FOR FAILING TO GET MORE DONE. THE WASHINGTON POST, FOR EXAMPLE, WRITES:

VOICE: THIS CONGRESS EXPECTS TO GO HOME ONCE IT VOTES ON THE LEGISLATION. GOING HOME MAY BE THE MOST USEFUL THING IT HAS DONE ALL YEAR. "NEWSDAY" FROM NEW YORK SAYS WASHINGTON SPENT TOO MUCH TIME ON THE PRESIDENTIAL SEX-AND-PERJURY SCANDAL, IGNORING REAL ISSUES.

VOICE: IT HAS BEEN A HISTORIC YEAR. TOO BAD CONGRESS FAILED TO TAKE HISTORIC ACTION ON CAMPAIGN REFORM, TOBACCO AND PATIENTS' RIGHTS. "THE NEW YORK TIMES" JOINS "NEWSDAY" IN A CALL FOR LEGISLATION ON THOSE ISSUES. ALL THREE PAPERS (INCLUDING THE "POST") CHARACTERIZE THE BUDGET DEAL AS A VICTORY FOR PRESIDENT CLINTON. THE "TIMES" SAYS IT IS EVIDENCE THAT "EVEN AN EMBATTLED PRESIDENT CAN WIELD CONSIDERABLE POWER." BUT "THE WASHINGTON TIMES" ATTACKS THE ADMINISTRATION FOR SHRINKING A REPUBLICAN-PROPOSED TAX CUT.

VOICE: IF MORE PROOF WERE NEEDED OF THE PROPOSITION THAT WHEN REVENUES INCREASE IN THE ABSENCE OF TAX CUTS, GOVERNMENT SPENDS THE MONEY, THIS WOULD DO IT. "THE WASHINGTON TIMES" ALSO COMPLAINS THAT MR. CLINTON SOUGHT ONLY A ONE-BILLION-DOLLAR INCREASE IN DEFENSE SPENDING. THE NEW BUDGET DEAL RAISES DEFENSE FUNDS BY ABOUT NINE-AND-ONE-HALF-BILLION DOLLARS.

VOICE: A PUNY [DEFENSE SPENDING] INCREASE ... ONLY BEGINS TO REVERSE A HOLLOWING OF THE MILITARY THAT WOULD HAVE TURNED THE PENTAGON INTO A HOUSE OF CARDS HAD IT CONTINUED.

WHILE STILL THINKING ABOUT MONEY, A FEW PAPERS HAVE TURNED THEIR GAZE ABROAD. "THE NEW YORK TIMES" ADDRESSES INDONESIA'S DIRE ECONOMIC SITUATION:

VOICE: INDONESIA CANNOT RECOVER UNTIL IT BECOMES A STABLE AND DEMOCRATIC NATION, WITH POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS FOR FIGHTING CORRUPTION AND ADDRESSING DISSATISFACTION BEFORE IT TURNS INTO RIOTS AND ETHNIC UNREST.... THE MOST CRUCIAL CHANGES ... ARE POLITICAL. ... BUT THESE WILL PROBABLY COME AFTER THE PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS SCHEDULED FOR NEXT YEAR. FINALLY, "THE WASHINGTON POST" PRAISES A PROPOSAL IN THE U-S SENATE TO REVIEW U-S POLICY ON CUBA. VIRGINIA SENATOR JOHN WARNER HAS PROPOSED A BIPARTISAN COMMISSION TO LOOK AT THE NEARLY FOUR-DECADE-LONG U-S EMBARGO ON FIDEL CASTRO'S ISLAND NATION.

VOICE: THE AMERICAN DEBATE ON CUBA HAS COME TO BE AN INTENSE UNPRODUCTIVE CONTEST BETWEEN THE MIAMI EXILE RIGHT AND ITS LIBERAL CRITICS. THE WARNER PROPOSAL PROMISES TO WIDEN BOTH THE TERMS OF THE DEBATE AND THE CONSTITUENCIES PARTICIPATING IN IT. A BROAD BIPARTISAN REVIEW OF CUBA POLICY IS AN IDEA WHOSE TIME HAS COME.

AND WITH THAT, WE CONCLUDE THIS SAMPLING OF EDITORIAL OPINION FROM THE U-S PRESS.
NEB/CEM/KL
16-Oct-98 11:49 AM EDT (1549 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] GERMANY / KOSOVO (L ONLY) BY SUZANNE KELLY (BONN)

INTRO: GERMANY'S PARLIAMENT HAS OFFICIALLY APPROVED THE COUNTRY'S PARTICIPATION IN ANY POSSIBLE NATO MILITARY ACTION IN KOSOVO. SUZANNE KELLY REPORTS FROM BONN.

TEXT: IN ONE OF HIS LAST OFFICIAL ACTS AS GERMANY'S CHANCELLOR, HELMUT KOHL LED AN EMERGENCY MEETING OF THE OUTGOING PARLIAMENT FOR A VOTE ON GERMAN PARTICIPATION IN A NATO STRIKE FORCE.

THE PARLIAMENT OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORTED THE PROPOSAL -- THE FIRST TIME GERMANY HAS APPROVED THE POSSIBLE USE OF MILITARY FORCE OUTSIDE NATO BOUNDARIES WITHOUT A SPECIFIC UNITED NATIONS MANDATE.

THE OUTCOME WAS NEVER IN DOUBT. BUT THE VOTE WAS WATCHED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF WHAT THE WORLD MIGHT EXPECT IN TERMS OF FOREIGN POLICY FROM THE NEW GERMAN GOVERNMENT.

INCOMING CHANCELLOR GERHARD SCHROEDER AND HIS SOCIAL DEMOCRATS (S-P-D) STRONGLY SUPPORTED THE NATO PROPOSAL. BUT THE S-P-D'S COALTION PARTNER, THE ENVIRONMENTALIST GREENS PARTY, WAS SPLIT ON THE QUESTION.

ONE WING OF THE GREENS PARTY IS OPPOSED TO MILITARY ACTION OUTSIDE GERMANY WITHOUT A U-N SECURITY COUNCIL MANDATE. BUT THAT VIEW IS NOT SHARED BY OTHER PARTY MEMBERS, INCLUDING GREENS PARTY LEADER JOSHKA FISHER, WHO IS EXPECTED TO BE GERMAN'S NEXT FOREIGN MINISTER.

DESPITE THE GREENS SPLIT, S-P-D OFFICIALS INSIST THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN GERMANY'S FOREIGN POLICY. AN S-P-D FOREIGN POLICY EXPERT, GUENTHER VERHUEGEN, SAYS THE PARTY IS PLEDGED TO CONTINUITY IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS.

OUR STRATEGY DURING THE CAMPAIGN WAS TO TELL PEOPLE HERE IN GERMANY AND OUR FRIENDS ABROAD THAT THERE WILL BE CONTINUITY IN GERMANY'S FOREIGN POLICY AND THAT INCLUDES OUR DEFENSE DUTIES AND WE WILL FULFILL THAT. OF COURSE, A NEW GOVERNMENT WILL TRY TO START SOME FRESH INITIATIVES, BUT NOTHING WILL CHANGE THE PRINCIPLE GUIDELINES OF OUR FOREIGN POLICY.

GERMANY HAS PLEDGED 500 SOLDIERS AND 14 FIGHTER PLANES TO THE NATO FORCE. (SIGNED)
NEB/SK/JWH/KL
16-Oct-98 10:31 AM EDT (1431 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] KOSOVO/SERBIA BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: ANALYSTS ARE DEBATING THE IMPACT OF THIS WEEK'S BELGRADE AGREEMENT TO DIFFUSE THE CRISIS IN KOSOVO ON THE POLITICAL FORTUNES OF YUGOSLAVIA'S PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC. SOME SAY THE CONCESSIONS HE MADE TO AVERT NATO AIRSTRIKES MAY HAVE WEAKENED HIS STANDING AMONG HIS SERB NATIONALIST SUPPORTERS. BUT OTHERS ARGUE THAT HE EMERGED UNSCATHED AND PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER, WHILE HIS OPPONENTS IN THE DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION REMAIN WEAK AND DIVIDED. V-O-A'S DOUGLAS ROBERTS HAS A BACKGROUND REPORT.

TEXT: THE BELGRADE ACCORD HAS SPARKED CONSIDERABLE SKEPTICISM. BUT THE FACT THAT IT EASES THE THREAT OF NATO AIRSTRIKES HAS PROMPTED AN ALMOST AUDIBLE SIGH OF RELIEF FROM MANY IN SERBIA'S FRACTURED OPPOSITION MOVEMENT.

FORMER YUGOSLAV PRIME MINISTER MILAN PANIC WAS AMONG THE MOST VOCIFEROUS OPPONENTS OF A NATO ATTACK. // OPT // JUST BEFORE THE AGREEMENT WAS ANNOUNCED, THE WEALTHY INDUSTRIALIST, A U-S CITIZEN, TOOK OUT A HALF-PAGE ADVERTISEMENT IN A WASHINGTON NEWSPAPER TO APPEAL DIRECTLY TO PRESIDENT CLINTON TO REFRAIN FROM MILITARY ACTION.

THIS (NATO ATTACK) WOULD ONLY WORSEN THE HUMAN TRAGEDY IN KOSOVO BY ENCOURAGING EXTREMIST ELEMENTS -- AMONG BOTH SERBS AND ALBANIANS -- AND IT WOULD EXACERBATE THE PROBLEMS, NOT SOLVE THEM.

MR. PANIC SAYS NO ONE SHOULD HAVE ANY ILLUSIONS ABOUT THE LONG-TERM VIABILITY OF THE BELGRADE AGREEMENT. AT BEST, HE SAYS, IT IS NO MORE THAN A CEASEFIRE.

THERE CANNOT BE PEACE IN THE BALKANS WITHOUT DEMOCRACY IN SERBIA (ONE OF YUGOSLAVIA'S TWO REPUBLICS) AND THERE WILL NOT BE DEMOCRACY IN SERBIA AS LONG AS THE MILOSEVIC REGIME STAYS IN POWER.

THAT VIEW IS ECHOED BY GROWING NUMBERS OF AMERICAN ANALYSTS. DANIEL SERWER, A FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL, IS NOW A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE U-S INSTITUTE FOR PEACE HERE IN WASHINGTON.

THIS REGIME (MILOSEVIC) REQUIRES THE SORT OF AGGRESSIVE ACTS THAT ARE BEING CONDUCTED IN KOSOVO, THAT HAVE BEEN INDULGED IN REPEATEDLY, FIRST IN SLOVENIA, THEN IN CROATIA, THEN IN BOSNIA. THE REGIME APPEARS NOT TO BE ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE A STRONG POLITICAL BASE WITHOUT UNDERTAKING THESE AGGRESSIVE ACTIVITIES AND WITHOUT TRYING TO RE-CENTRALIZE POWER INSIDE YUGOSLAVIA.BASE WITHOUT UNDERTAKING THESE AGGRESSIVE ACTIVITIES AND WITHOUT TRYING TO RE-CENTRALIZE POWER INSIDE YUGOSLAVIA.

MR. SERWER BELIEVES THE YUGOSLAV LEADER HAS SUCCESSFULLY USED THE KOSOVO CRISIS TO BOLSTER HIS POSITION AMONG SERBIA'S NATIONALISTS, WHILE THE DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION REMAINS POLITICALLY WEAK. BUT DEMOCRACY IS MORE THAN A GROUP OF PEOPLE AND POLITICAL PARTIES, HE ADDS, IT IS A SET OF INSTITUTIONS THAT HAVE YET TO TAKE HOLD IN YUGOSLAVIA, AND ITS DOMINANT REPUBLIC SERBIA.

IT IS THE QUESTION OF SYSTEM, NOT OF INDIVIDUALS. AND THE SYSTEM IS NOT RIGHT AND DOES NOT MEET ANYTHING LIKE WESTERN STANDARDS OF DEMOCRACY EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE FORMS ARE THERE. // OPT // THE COURTS EXIST, THE ELECTIONS ARE HELD, BUT IT IS AN EMPTY SHELL COMPARED TO WHAT EXISTS EVEN IN BULGARIA OR ROMANIA, NEVER MIND POLAND OR HUNGARY OR THE CZECH REPUBLIC. IT DOES NOT TAKE A GENIUS TO SEE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH SERBIA HAS TO GO TO SOLVE BOTH THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC QUANDARY IN WHICH IT FINDS ITSELF. IT HAS TO GO IN DEMOCRATIC, OPEN MARKET, EUROPEAN DIRECTIONS.// END OPT //

SERBIA'S OPPOSITION MOVEMENT HAS BEEN LARGELY INEFFECTIVE SINCE THE COLLAPSE, NEARLY TWO YEARS AGO, OF THE ZAJEDNO COALITION.

ZAJEDNO'S DAILY ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATIONS IN BELGRADE AND OTHER CITIES ATTRACTED MUCH INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION AND CONSIDERABLE POPULAR SUPPORT. NOW, FORMER PRIME MINISTER PANIC AND OTHER OPPOSITION LEADERS ARE ATTEMPTING TO FORGE A NEW COALITION, DUBBED THE ALLIANCE FOR CHANGE.

THE ALLIANCE HAS DRAFTED A 21-POINT PROGRAM OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL REFORMS, COUPLED WITH A DEMAND FOR IMMEDIATE GENERAL ELECTIONS -- THREE YEARS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. ITS APPEAL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BUT ONE OF THE GROUP'S FOUNDERS, FORMER CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR DRAGOSLAV AVRAMOVIC, SAYS THE ALLIANCE LEARNED AN IMPORTANT LESSON FROM THE FAILURE OF ZAJEDNO.

ZAJEDNO DID NOT HAVE A PROGRAM. IT WAS A COLLECTION OF INDIVIDUALS, ALL OF WHICH WERE IN OPPOSITION TO THE GOVERNMENT, WHICH DID NOT ATTEMPT TO WORK OUT A POSITIVE PROGRAM FOR THE FUTURE. IT IS MY DEEP CONVICTION THAT YOU CANNOT WIN ON A NEGATIVE PLATFORM. YOU HAVE GOT TO WIN ON A POSITIVE PLATFORM.

MILAN PANIC ARGUES THAT THE BEST WAY FOR THE WEST TO SUPPORT THE DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT IS TO SEVER ALL CONTACTS WITH PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC.

IF INTERNATIONAL LEADERS NO LONGER PARADE TO BELGRADE TO MEET WITH HIM, HIS POLITICAL IMAGE AS THE INTERNATIONALLY-RECOGNIZED LEADER AND PROTECTOR OF THE SERBIAN NATION WILL QUICKLY FADE.

DANIEL SERWER BELIEVES AN INTERNATIONAL BOYCOTT OF MR. MILOSEVIC WOULD NOT BE REALISTIC. BUT HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER WESTERN NATIONS SHOULD BE DOING MUCH MORE TO PROMOTE DEMOCRACY IN SERBIA, INCLUDING A SHARP INCREASE IN FINANCIAL AID TO GRASSROOTS DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS.

WE ARE SPENDING ABOUT SIXTEEN MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR NOW IN SUPPORT OF DEMOCRACY IN SERBIA, KOSOVO AND MONTENEGRO. THIS IS A LUDICROUSLY SMALL AMOUNT OF MONEY. IT SHOULD BE TRIPLED, QUADRUPLED QUICKLY, IN THE SPACE OF A YEAR OR SO, AND THEN WE SHOULD THINK ABOUT DOUBLING IT AGAIN.

MR. SERWER SAYS THERE COULD BE REAL POLITICAL CHANGES IN SERBIA WITHIN TWO YEARS OR LESS IF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PROVIDES WHAT HE CALLS SERIOUS SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS. (SIGNED)
NEB/DBR/JO
16-Oct-98 3:50 PM EDT (1950 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] KOSOVO/SERBIA BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: ANALYSTS ARE DEBATING THE IMPACT OF THIS WEEK'S BELGRADE AGREEMENT TO DIFFUSE THE CRISIS IN KOSOVO ON THE POLITICAL FORTUNES OF YUGOSLAVIA'S PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC. SOME SAY THE CONCESSIONS HE MADE TO AVERT NATO AIRSTRIKES MAY HAVE WEAKENED HIS STANDING AMONG HIS SERB NATIONALIST SUPPORTERS. BUT OTHERS ARGUE THAT HE EMERGED UNSCATHED AND PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER, WHILE HIS OPPONENTS IN THE DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION REMAIN WEAK AND DIVIDED. V-O-A'S DOUGLAS ROBERTS HAS A BACKGROUND REPORT.

TEXT: THE BELGRADE ACCORD HAS SPARKED CONSIDERABLE SKEPTICISM. BUT THE FACT THAT IT EASES THE THREAT OF NATO AIRSTRIKES HAS PROMPTED AN ALMOST AUDIBLE SIGH OF RELIEF FROM MANY IN SERBIA'S FRACTURED OPPOSITION MOVEMENT.

FORMER YUGOSLAV PRIME MINISTER MILAN PANIC WAS AMONG THE MOST VOCIFEROUS OPPONENTS OF A NATO ATTACK. // OPT // JUST BEFORE THE AGREEMENT WAS ANNOUNCED, THE WEALTHY INDUSTRIALIST, A U-S CITIZEN, TOOK OUT A HALF-PAGE ADVERTISEMENT IN A WASHINGTON NEWSPAPER TO APPEAL DIRECTLY TO PRESIDENT CLINTON TO REFRAIN FROM MILITARY ACTION.

THIS (NATO ATTACK) WOULD ONLY WORSEN THE HUMAN TRAGEDY IN KOSOVO BY ENCOURAGING EXTREMIST ELEMENTS -- AMONG BOTH SERBS AND ALBANIANS -- AND IT WOULD EXACERBATE THE PROBLEMS, NOT SOLVE THEM.

MR. PANIC SAYS NO ONE SHOULD HAVE ANY ILLUSIONS ABOUT THE LONG-TERM VIABILITY OF THE BELGRADE AGREEMENT. AT BEST, HE SAYS, IT IS NO MORE THAN A CEASEFIRE.

THERE CANNOT BE PEACE IN THE BALKANS WITHOUT DEMOCRACY IN SERBIA (ONE OF YUGOSLAVIA'S TWO REPUBLICS) AND THERE WILL NOT BE DEMOCRACY IN SERBIA AS LONG AS THE MILOSEVIC REGIME STAYS IN POWER.

THAT VIEW IS ECHOED BY GROWING NUMBERS OF AMERICAN ANALYSTS. DANIEL SERWER, A FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL, IS NOW A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE U-S INSTITUTE FOR PEACE HERE IN WASHINGTON.

THIS REGIME (MILOSEVIC) REQUIRES THE SORT OF AGGRESSIVE ACTS THAT ARE BEING CONDUCTED IN KOSOVO, THAT HAVE BEEN INDULGED IN REPEATEDLY, FIRST IN SLOVENIA, THEN IN CROATIA, THEN IN BOSNIA. THE REGIME APPEARS NOT TO BE ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE A STRONG POLITICAL BASE WITHOUT UNDERTAKING THESE AGGRESSIVE ACTIVITIES AND WITHOUT TRYING TO RE-CENTRALIZE POWER INSIDE YUGOSLAVIA.BASE WITHOUT UNDERTAKING THESE AGGRESSIVE ACTIVITIES AND WITHOUT TRYING TO RE-CENTRALIZE POWER INSIDE YUGOSLAVIA.

MR. SERWER BELIEVES THE YUGOSLAV LEADER HAS SUCCESSFULLY USED THE KOSOVO CRISIS TO BOLSTER HIS POSITION AMONG SERBIA'S NATIONALISTS, WHILE THE DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION REMAINS POLITICALLY WEAK. BUT DEMOCRACY IS MORE THAN A GROUP OF PEOPLE AND POLITICAL PARTIES, HE ADDS, IT IS A SET OF INSTITUTIONS THAT HAVE YET TO TAKE HOLD IN YUGOSLAVIA, AND ITS DOMINANT REPUBLIC SERBIA.

IT IS THE QUESTION OF SYSTEM, NOT OF INDIVIDUALS. AND THE SYSTEM IS NOT RIGHT AND DOES NOT MEET ANYTHING LIKE WESTERN STANDARDS OF DEMOCRACY EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE FORMS ARE THERE. // OPT // THE COURTS EXIST, THE ELECTIONS ARE HELD, BUT IT IS AN EMPTY SHELL COMPARED TO WHAT EXISTS EVEN IN BULGARIA OR ROMANIA, NEVER MIND POLAND OR HUNGARY OR THE CZECH REPUBLIC. IT DOES NOT TAKE A GENIUS TO SEE THE DIRECTION IN WHICH SERBIA HAS TO GO TO SOLVE BOTH THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC QUANDARY IN WHICH IT FINDS ITSELF. IT HAS TO GO IN DEMOCRATIC, OPEN MARKET, EUROPEAN DIRECTIONS.// END OPT //

SERBIA'S OPPOSITION MOVEMENT HAS BEEN LARGELY INEFFECTIVE SINCE THE COLLAPSE, NEARLY TWO YEARS AGO, OF THE ZAJEDNO COALITION.

ZAJEDNO'S DAILY ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATIONS IN BELGRADE AND OTHER CITIES ATTRACTED MUCH INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION AND CONSIDERABLE POPULAR SUPPORT. NOW, FORMER PRIME MINISTER PANIC AND OTHER OPPOSITION LEADERS ARE ATTEMPTING TO FORGE A NEW COALITION, DUBBED THE ALLIANCE FOR CHANGE.

THE ALLIANCE HAS DRAFTED A 21-POINT PROGRAM OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL REFORMS, COUPLED WITH A DEMAND FOR IMMEDIATE GENERAL ELECTIONS -- THREE YEARS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. ITS APPEAL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BUT ONE OF THE GROUP'S FOUNDERS, FORMER CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR DRAGOSLAV AVRAMOVIC, SAYS THE ALLIANCE LEARNED AN IMPORTANT LESSON FROM THE FAILURE OF ZAJEDNO.

ZAJEDNO DID NOT HAVE A PROGRAM. IT WAS A COLLECTION OF INDIVIDUALS, ALL OF WHICH WERE IN OPPOSITION TO THE GOVERNMENT, WHICH DID NOT ATTEMPT TO WORK OUT A POSITIVE PROGRAM FOR THE FUTURE. IT IS MY DEEP CONVICTION THAT YOU CANNOT WIN ON A NEGATIVE PLATFORM. YOU HAVE GOT TO WIN ON A POSITIVE PLATFORM.

MILAN PANIC ARGUES THAT THE BEST WAY FOR THE WEST TO SUPPORT THE DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT IS TO SEVER ALL CONTACTS WITH PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC.

IF INTERNATIONAL LEADERS NO LONGER PARADE TO BELGRADE TO MEET WITH HIM, HIS POLITICAL IMAGE AS THE INTERNATIONALLY-RECOGNIZED LEADER AND PROTECTOR OF THE SERBIAN NATION WILL QUICKLY FADE.

DANIEL SERWER BELIEVES AN INTERNATIONAL BOYCOTT OF MR. MILOSEVIC WOULD NOT BE REALISTIC. BUT HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER WESTERN NATIONS SHOULD BE DOING MUCH MORE TO PROMOTE DEMOCRACY IN SERBIA, INCLUDING A SHARP INCREASE IN FINANCIAL AID TO GRASSROOTS DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS.

WE ARE SPENDING ABOUT SIXTEEN MILLION DOLLARS A YEAR NOW IN SUPPORT OF DEMOCRACY IN SERBIA, KOSOVO AND MONTENEGRO. THIS IS A LUDICROUSLY SMALL AMOUNT OF MONEY. IT SHOULD BE TRIPLED, QUADRUPLED QUICKLY, IN THE SPACE OF A YEAR OR SO, AND THEN WE SHOULD THINK ABOUT DOUBLING IT AGAIN.

MR. SERWER SAYS THERE COULD BE REAL POLITICAL CHANGES IN SERBIA WITHIN TWO YEARS OR LESS IF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PROVIDES WHAT HE CALLS SERIOUS SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS. (SIGNED)
NEB/DBR/JO
16-Oct-98 3:50 PM EDT (1950 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] NATO / KOSOVO (S) BY RON PEMSTEIN (BRUSSELS)

INTRO: NATO HAS DELAYED FOR 10 DAYS THE EXECUTION OF ITS ORDER OF AIR STRIKES AGAINST YUGOSLAVIA. V-O-A'S RON PEMSTEIN REPORTS FROM NATO HEADUARTERS IN BRUSSELS THAT THERE ARE SIGNS YUGOSLAVIA IS BEGINNING TO COMPLY WITH THE REQUIREMENT TO WITHDRAW ITS FORCES FROM KOSOVO.

TEXT: NATO IS MAINTAINING ITS ORDER AUTHORIZING AIR STRIKES AGAINST YUGOSLAVIA. NATO SPOKESMAN JAMIE SHEA SAYS YUGOSLAVIA HAS STILL NOT FULLY COMPLIED WITH THE AGREEMENT TO REMOVE ITS ARMY FROM KOSOVO.

WE ARE STILL AT SOME DISTANCE FROM FULL COMPLIANCE. THERE IS CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT MANY ARMY AND SPECIAL UNITS THAT ARE NORMALLY BASED OUTSIDE KOSOVO, ARE STILL DEPLOYED IN KOSOVO.

THE ORDER TO LAUNCH AIR STRIKES WAS SUPPOSED TO GO INTO EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING. THE NATO COUNCIL HAS DELAYED THAT ORDER UNTIL OCTOBER 27TH.

NATO OFFICIALS SAY YUGOSLAVIA HAS BEGUN REMOVING TWO MILITARY UNITS FROM KOSOVO AND THE ALLIANCE BELIEVES NINE MORE DAYS ARE NEEDED TO COMPLETE THE PROCESS. (SIGNED)
NEB/RDP/JWH
16-Oct-98 1:15 PM EDT (1715 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[07] NATO / KOSOVO (S) BY RON PEMSTEIN (BRUSSELS)

INTRO: NATO HAS DELAYED FOR 10 DAYS THE EXECUTION OF ITS ORDER OF AIR STRIKES AGAINST YUGOSLAVIA. V-O-A'S RON PEMSTEIN REPORTS FROM NATO HEADUARTERS IN BRUSSELS THAT THERE ARE SIGNS YUGOSLAVIA IS BEGINNING TO COMPLY WITH THE REQUIREMENT TO WITHDRAW ITS FORCES FROM KOSOVO.

TEXT: NATO IS MAINTAINING ITS ORDER AUTHORIZING AIR STRIKES AGAINST YUGOSLAVIA. NATO SPOKESMAN JAMIE SHEA SAYS YUGOSLAVIA HAS STILL NOT FULLY COMPLIED WITH THE AGREEMENT TO REMOVE ITS ARMY FROM KOSOVO.

WE ARE STILL AT SOME DISTANCE FROM FULL COMPLIANCE. THERE IS CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT MANY ARMY AND SPECIAL UNITS THAT ARE NORMALLY BASED OUTSIDE KOSOVO, ARE STILL DEPLOYED IN KOSOVO.

THE ORDER TO LAUNCH AIR STRIKES WAS SUPPOSED TO GO INTO EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING. THE NATO COUNCIL HAS DELAYED THAT ORDER UNTIL OCTOBER 27TH.

NATO OFFICIALS SAY YUGOSLAVIA HAS BEGUN REMOVING TWO MILITARY UNITS FROM KOSOVO AND THE ALLIANCE BELIEVES NINE MORE DAYS ARE NEEDED TO COMPLETE THE PROCESS. (SIGNED)
NEB/RDP/JWH
16-Oct-98 1:15 PM EDT (1715 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[08] NY ECON WRAP (S & L) BY ELAINE JOHANSON (NEW YORK)

INTRO: STOCK PRICES WERE UP TODAY (FRIDAY) IN THE UNITED STATES AS WALL STREET CONTINUED TO BE FAVORABLY IMPRESSED WITH THE EASING OF INTEREST RATES BY THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD ON THURSDAY. V-O-A'S CORRESPONDENT ELAINE JOHANSON REPORTS:

TEXT: THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE CLOSED AT 84 HUNDRED 16, UP 117 POINTS. THAT REPRESENTS A SIX PERCENT GAIN FOR THE WEEK. STANDARD AND POOR'S 500 INDEX ALSO UP EIGHT POINTS, CLOSING AT ONE THOUSAND FIFTY-SIX. NASDAQ -- THE TECHNOLOGY-DOMINATED INDEX GAINED EIGHT AND ONE HALF PERCENT FOR THE WEEK, REVERSING LAST WEEK'S SEVEN PERCENT DECLINE.

ANALYSTS CALLED IT A NICE WAY TO END THE WEEK. THE SECOND CUT IN U-S INTEREST RATES IN THREE WEEKS MOBILIZED BUYING. TRADING VOLUME WAS VERY HEAVY --A ONE BILLION SHARE DAY, THE FOURTH HIGHEST IN HISTORY. CLEARLY, THE U-S INTEREST RATE -- NOT CORPORATE EARNINGS -- WAS THE DOMINANT STORY BY WEEK'S END. SOME ARE PREDICTING THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD WILL MAKE EVEN MORE CUTS BEFORE THE YEAR IS OUT TO PREVENT THE WORLD ECONOMIC SLUMP FROM THROWING THE U-S ECONOMY INTO RECESSION.

THE INFLATION RATE IS DOWN BECAUSE OF A LOT OF SPECIAL FACTORS, LIKE THE OIL PRICE. WHEN THOSE THINGS REVERSE WE'LL BE BACK TO WHERE THE AVERAGE RATE OF INFLATION, WHICH IS CLOSER TO TWO OR TWO AND ONE HALF PERCENT AT THIS POINT. I BELIEVE IT WILL RISE. THE BIG PROBLEM FOR THE FED IS IF THEIR FORECAST IS WRONG THEY'RE GOING TO BE IN A BOX WHERE THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE TO FACE SOME RISING UNEMPLOYMENT AT THE SAME TIME THEY'RE GOING TO BE FACING SOME RISING INFLATION. THAT'S NOT A GOOD POSITION TO BE IN.

MEMORY CHIP TECHNOLOGY HAS FAILED TO KEEP PACE WITH THE IMPROVEMENTS INTEL HAS DELIVERED IN ITS MICROPROCESSORS -- WHICH FORM THE CORE OF PERSONAL COMPUTERS. (SIGNED) NEB/NY/EJ/JC/PT
16-Oct-98 4:55 PM EDT (2055 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[09] U-S-KOSOVO (L) BY GIL BUTLER (EASTERN SHORE)

INTRO: NATO AMBASSADORS IN BRUSSELS HAVE GIVEN YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC 10 MORE DAYS TO PULLBACK FORCES FROM KOSOVO PROVINCE. THE UNITED STATES SAYS MR. MILOSEVIC HAS NOT YET MET U-N DEMANDS TO WITHDRAW TROOPS -- AND WILL FACE AIRSTRIKES IF THE NEW DEADLINE IS NOT MET. V-O-A'S GIL BUTLER HAS THE DETAILS.

TEXT: STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN JAMES RUBIN -- TALKING TO REPORTERS COVERING MIDDLE EAST TALKS ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND -- SAID THERE HAD BEEN SUBSTANTIAL, BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COMPLIANCE BY YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT SLOBODAN MILOSEVIC ON THE AGREEMENT WORKED OUT BY U-S ENVOY RICHARD HOLBROOKE. MR. MILOSEVIC WAS TO REMOVE POLICE AND MILITARY UNITS FROM KOSOVO AND ALLOW INTERNATIONAL MONITORING AND SURVEILLANCE OVERFLIGHTS TO ASSURE COMPLIANCE.

MR. RUBIN SAID ABOUT HALF THE SERB FORCES THAT HAD BEEN IN THE FIELD IN KOSOVO ARE NO LONGER THERE AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT DISPLACED KOSOVAR ALBANIANS ARE RETURNING HOME. BUT HE SAID, NATO'S COMMANDER GENERAL WESLEY CLARK, MUST STILL HOLD OUT THE THREAT OF MILITARY ACTION TO ASSURE SERB COMPLIANCE. IN HIS WORDS: NATO'S GUN SHOULD REMAIN COCKED (READY TO FIRE).

WHAT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE GENERAL CLARK THE AUTHORITY TO USE FORCE--BY A LATER DATE NOW--TO EXTEND THE TIME-FRAME IF THERE IS NOT COMPLIANCE BY PRESIDENT MILOSEVIC. ON THE COMPLIANCE QUESTION, IT IS OUR VIEW THAT THERE IS NOT YET FULL COMPLIANCE AND THAT IS WHY WE BELIEVE VERY STRONGLY THAT NATO'S MILITARY COMMANDER MUST REMAIN IN A POSITION TO HAVE ALL THE AUTHORITY TO ACT IN THE COMING DAYS.

THE FIRST OF A FORCE OF TWO THOUSAND INTERNATIONAL VERIFIERS -- TO CHECK ON SERB COMPLIANCE -- MAY ARRIVE SHORTLY IN KOSOVO.(SIGNED)
NEB/MGB/WDC/JO
16-Oct-98 2:44 PM EDT (1844 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[10] YUGO / MEDIA PROTEST (L ONLY) BY ART CHIMES (BELGRADE)

INTRO: FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW, HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE GATHERED IN BELGRADE (FRIDAY) TO PROTEST THE CLOSURE OF INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS AND OTHER MEDIA. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ART CHIMES WAS AT THE NOISY DEMONSTRATION.

TEXT:

TEXT: MANY OF THE DEMONSTRATORS CAME WITH WHISTLES AND OTHER NOISEMAKERS. IT IS PROBABLY NOT A COINCIDENCE THAT THOUSANDS OF PRO-DEMOCRACY DEMONSTRATORS WERE MAKING SIMILAR NOISE ALMOST TWO YEARS AGO AS THEY MARCHED THROUGH THE STREETS OF BELGRADE.

THE PROTESTS THIS TIME BEGAN THURSDAY IN A WEEK WHEN AUTHORITIES CLOSED BELGRADE'S THREE MAJOR INDEPENDENT NEWSPAPERS -- "DNEVNI TELEGRAF," "DANAS," AND "NASA BORBA." THE ACTION WAS BASED ON AN ADMINISTRATIVE DECREE THAT PROHIBITS STORIES THAT SPREAD "FEAR, PANIC AND DEFEATISM."

ONE OF THE BANNED PAPERS -- "DANAS" -- FRIDAY GOT OUT THREE THOUSAND COPIES OF A FOUR-PAGE EDITION THAT WAS INCLUDED AS A SUPPLEMENT TO THE MONTENEGRAN DAILY, "VIJESTI." EDITORS FROM "NASA BORBA" SAY THEY WILL DO THE SAME THING.

THE YUGOSLAV GOVERNMENT HAS ALSO ACTED AGINST ELECTRONIC MEDIA, BY BANNING THE REBROADCAST OF PROGRAMS FROM FOREIGN STATIONS INCLUDING V-O-A, DEUTSCHE WELLE, AND THE B-B-C. TWO RADIO STATIONS (INCLUDING BELGRADE'S POPULAR RADIO INDEX) HAVE BEEN CLOSED DOWN. RADIO B-92, THE POPULAR BELGRADE STATION, REMAINS ON THE AIR AS THE ONLY INDEPENDENT SOURCE OF BROADCAST NEWS HERE. JOURNALISTS SAY THEY ARE CONFIDENT THE STATION WILL REMAIN ON THE AIR.

AMONG THE SPEAKERS AT FRIDAY'S RALLY WAS PROFESSOR SRBIJANKA TURAJLIC, WHO WAS RECENTLY EXPELLED AS DEAN OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AT BELGRADE UNIVERSITY.

IF YOU WORK AT A NEWSPAPER THAT IS NOT BANNED, SHE SAYS, ASK YOURSELF WHAT'S WRONG WITH YOU AND WITH YOUR NEWSPAPER. SHE WENT ON TO URGE EVERYONE AT THE RALLY TO COME BACK FOR TOMORROW'S DEMONSTRATION, AND BRING AT LEAST ONE FRIEND.

ONE YOUNG MAN AT THE RALLY SAID HE THINKS THIS IS THE START OF ANOTHER MASS PROTEST MOVEMENT LIKE THE ONE ALMOST TWO YEARS AGO. ONLY, HE SAID, I HOPE THIS ONE ENDS UP CHANGING SOMETHING. (SIGNED)
NEB/ART/JWH
16-Oct-98 1:23 PM EDT (1723 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[11] YUGO / O-S-C-E (L) BY ART CHIMES (BELGRADE)

INTRO: YUGOSLAVIA HAS OFFICIALLY AGREED TO ALLOW TWO-THOUSAND UNARMED OBSERVERS IN REBELLIOUS KOSOVO PROVINCE TO ENSURE WITHDRAWAL OF TROOPS AND SPECIAL POLICE, AND TO HELP DISPLACED PERSONS RETURN HOME. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ART CHIMES REPORTS FROM BELGRADE.

TEXT: UNDER AN AGREEMENT HAMMERED OUT BY U-S ENVOY RICHARD HOLBROOKE, THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE (O-S-C-E) WILL PROVIDE INSPECTORS ON THE GROUND, WHILE NATO SPY PLANS FLY OVERHEAD TO ENSURE YUGOSLAV TROOPS PULL OUT OF KOSOVO.

THE CURRENT HEAD OF THE O-S-C-E -- POLISH FOREIGN MINISTER BRANISLAW GEREMEK -- ON FRIDAY SIGNED THE AGREEMENT FOR THE VERIFICATION MISSION WITH YUGOSLAVIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER ZIVOJIN JOVANOVIC. AFTERWARD, MR. GEREMEK TOLD REPORTERS THE AGREEMENT OPENS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF PEACE IN KOSOVO.

IT GIVES A CHANCE TO THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA. IT GIVES A CHANCE ALSO TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DO AN EFFECTIVE AND GOOD WORK IN THIS VERY DIFFICULT AND DRAMATIC SITUATION.

YUGOSLAVIA AGREED TO THE OVERFLIGHTS AND GROUND OBSERVERS UNDER THE THREAT OF NATO AIR STRIKES.

NATO SECRETARY GENERAL JAVIER SOLANA THURSDAY SAID YUGOSLAVIA IS STILL NOT IN FULL COMPLIANCE WITH DEMANDS OF THE UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL FOR THE PULLOUT OF FORCES FROM KOSOVO.

MANY TROOPS AND SPECIAL POLICE HAVE BEEN WITHDRAWN, BUT NOT ENOUGH. AND MANY RESIDENTS FORCED OUT OF THEIR HOMES BY SEVEN MONTHS OF FIGHTING ARE STILL AFRAID TO RETURN HOME. HUMANITARIAN ORGANIZATIONS HAVE STEPPED UP RELIEF CONVOYS TO MEMBERS OF KOSOVO'S ETHNIC ALBANIAN MAJORITY, INCLUDING THOUSANDS WHO ARE STILL LIVING OUT IN THE OPEN AS THE HARSH BALKAN WINTER APPROACHES. (SIGNED)
NEB/ART/JWH/KL
16-Oct-98 8:48 AM EDT (1248 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[12] YUGO / O-S-C-E (S) BY ART CHIMES (BELGRADE)

INTRO: DIPLOMATS IN BELGRADE HAVE APPROVED DEPLOYMENT OF TWO-THOUSAND UNARMED OBSERVERS IN YUGOSLAVIA'S KOSOVO PROVINCE TO ENSURE WITHDRAWAL OF SERBIAN TROOPS AND SPECIAL POLICE AND TO HELP DISPLACED PERSONS -- MOSTLY ETHNIC ALBANIANS -- RETURN HOME. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ART CHIMES REPORTS FROM THE YUGOSLAV CAPITAL.

TEXT: UNDER AN AGREEMENT HAMMERED OUT BY U-S ENVOY RICHARD HOLBROOKE, THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE (O-S-C-E) WILL PROVIDE INSPECTORS ON THE GROUND TO VERIFY YUGOSLAVIA'S COMPLIANCE WITH THE U-N DEMANDS.

THE CURRENT HEAD OF THE O-S-C-E -- POLISH FOREIGN MINISTER BRANISLAV GEREMEK -- ON FRIDAY SIGNED THE AGREEMENT FOR THE VERIFICATION MISSION WITH YUGOSLAVIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER (ZIVOJIN JOVANOVIC). MR. GEREMEK SAYS WITHDRAWAL OF FORCES FROM KOSOVO IS NOT ITSELF THE GOAL.

THE FIRST PURPOSE OF THIS MISSION IS TO STOP THE BLOODSHED AND ALSO TO AVOID A HUMANITARIAN DISASTER IN THE REGION.

IN ADDITION TO UNARMED OBSERVERS ON THE GROUND, NATO SPY PLANES WILL FLY OVERHEAD FOR ADDITIONAL VERIFICATION THAT YUGOSLAV TROOPS ARE PULLING OUT OF KOSOVO. (SIGNED)
NEB/ART/JWH/JO
16-Oct-98 8:24 AM EDT (1224 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[13] YUGO-VERIFICATION (S-ONLY) BY ART CHIMES (BELGRADE)

INTRO: THE DEADLINE IS JUST ONE DAY AWAY FOR YUGOSLAVIA TO COMPLY WITH UNITED NATIONS DEMANDS FOR A WITHDRAWAL OF FORCES FROM THE REBELLIOUS KOSOVO PROVINCE. IN THE MEANTIME, AS WE HEAR FROM V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ART CHIMES IN BELGRADE, A SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL VERIFICATION IS BEING PUT INTO PLACE TO ENSURE COMPLIANCE.

TEXT: THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND CO-OPERATION IN EUROPE TODAY (FRIDAY) SIGNS (EDS: BY FOREIGN MINISTER GEREMEK OF POLAND, CURRENT HEAD OF OSCE) AN AGREEMENT IN BELGRADE TO ALLOW A TWO THOUSAND-PERSON UNARMED VERIFICATION MISSION IN KOSOVO. THAT FOLLOWS THURSDAY'S AGREEMENT BY NATO FOR AERIAL SURVEILLANCE.

IT'S ALL DESIGNED TO ENSURE THAT YUGOSLAVIA PULLS ITS FORCES OUT OF KOSOVO AND KEEPS THEM OUT, SO ETHNIC ALBANIAN RESIDENTS DISPLACED BY SEVEN MONTHS OF FIGHTING CAN GO HOME BEFORE THE HARSH BALKAN WINTER SETS IN.

BELGRADE HAS WITHDRAWN MANY OF ITS SOLDIERS AND SPECIAL POLICE FROM KOSOVO, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SATISFY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. NATO SECRETARY-GENERAL JAVIER SOLANA IN BELGRADE THURSDAY SAID THE THREAT OF AIR STRIKES IS STILL THERE, BUT HE EMPHASIZED THAT NATO PREFERS THAT YUGOSLAVIA COMPLY WITH THE U-N DEMANDS. (SIGNED)
NEB/ART/PLM
16-Oct-98 3:08 AM EDT (0708 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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