Voice of America, 97-12-19

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] CLINTON / TURKEY (L) BY DAVID GOLLUST (WHITE HOUSE)

[02] CLINTON/BOSNIA (S-ONLY) BY DAVID GOLLUST (WHITE HOUSE)

[03] E-U / RACISM (L ONLY) BY JOHN FRASER (BRUSSELS)

[04] EURO STOCKS (S-ONLY) BY JACK HUIZENGA (LONDON)

[05] FRIDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[06] GREECE / CRASH (L) BY ANTHEE CARASSAVA (ATHENS)

[07] N-Y ECON WRAP (S & L) BY BRECK ARDERY (NEW YORK)

[08] PRESIDENT CLINTON'S BOSNIA TROOP EXTENSION BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[09] PRESIDENT CLINTON'S BOSNIA TROOP EXTENSION BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[10] TURKEY / CYPRUS / U-S (L-ONLY) BY DAVID SWAN (WASHINGTON)

[11] YEARENDER: NATO/BOSNIA '97 BY ANDRE DE NESNERA (LONDON)

[12] YEARENDER: BRIGHTENED OUTLOOK FOR EUROPE '97 BY FRANK RONALDS (WASHINGTON)

[13] YEARENDER: NATO ENLARGEMENT '97 BY ANDRE DE NESNERA (LONDON)

[14] YEARENDER: OUTLOOK FOR FORMER SOVIET UNION BY FRANK RONALDS (WASHINGTON)

[15] YUGO WAR CRIMES (L-ONLY) BY GILLIAN SHARPE (THE HAGUE)

[01] CLINTON / TURKEY (L) BY DAVID GOLLUST (WHITE HOUSE)

INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON HELD TALKS AT THE WHITE HOUSE FRIDAY WITH TURKISH PRIME MINISTER MESUT YILMAZ. THEY REVIEWED, AMONG OTHER THINGS, TURKEY'S UNSUCESSFUL QUEST FOR MEMBERSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN UNION. VOA'S DAVID GOLLUST HAS DETAILS FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

TEXT: THE MEETING HERE CAME A WEEK AFTER THE EUROPEAN UNION REJECTED TURKEY'S LATEST BID FOR MEMBERSHIP, WHICH PROMPTED THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT TO FREEZE ITS POLITICAL RELATIONS WITH THE E-U. BOTH ACTIONS CAME AS DISAPPOINTMENTS TO THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION. WHITE HOUSE SPOKESMAN MIKE MCCURRY SAID THE PRESIDENT REITERATED THE UNITED STATES' STRONG SUPPORT FOR TURKEY'S INTEGRATION INTO THE EUROPEAN SYSTEM:

HE TALKED ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF ANCHORING TURKEY TO THE WEST. AND INCORPORATING THE FUTURE OF AN UNDIVIDED EUROPEAN CONTINENT WITH THE STRONG PRESENCE OF WHAT IS THE GEO-POLITICAL, GEO-STRATEGIC CROSSROADS BETWEEN EAST AND WEST: TURKEY. I THINK THE PRESIDENT CLEARLY MADE KNOWN HIS VIEW THAT WE SEE A FUTURE FOR EUROPE WITH TURKEY IN IT. AND OF COURSE WE HAVE LONG FAVORED MEMBERSHIP FOR TURKEY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION.

E-U OFFICIALS SAID TURKEY WAS EXCLUDED FROM MEMBERSHIP CANDIDATES BECAUSE OF ITS POOR HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD. AND ABOUT 40 DEMONSTRATORS PROTESTING THE ANKARA GOVERNMENT'S TREATMENT OF KURDS AND OTHERS WERE OUTSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE DURING THE MR. YILMAZ VISIT. AFTER HIS MEETING WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON, MR. YILMAZ TOLD REPORTERS THAT HIS GOVERNMENT IS WORKING HARD TO REMEDY ADMITTED SHORTCOMIMGS IN HUMAN RIGHTS PRACTICES:

THE TURKISH PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SHARING THE SAME IDEALS AND VALUES WITH THE WEST OVER THE PAST SEVEN DECADES. WE HAVE ALWAYS STRIVEN TO ENHANCE OUR DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM TO THE BENEFIT OF OUR PEOPLE. WE HAVE GONE AN IMMENSE DISTANCE IN THIS REGARD. YET WE DO NOT DENY THE FACT THAT WE STILL HAVE SOME WAY TO GO. THE TURKISH GOVERNMENT IS SINCERELY DEVOTED TO THE GOAL OF IMPROVING OUR DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM AND THE HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION IN THE COUNTRY.

THE TURKISH LEADER AND U-S VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE PRESIDED AT A CEREMONY HERE AT WHICH OFFICIALS OF TURKEY'S STATE AIRLINE AND THE BOEING CORPORATION CONCLUDED A DEAL FOR THE PURCHASE OF AS MANY AS 49 BOEING 7-3-7 AIRCRAFT. THE SALE COULD BE WORTH AS MUCH AS TWO AND A HALF BILLION DOLLARS. (SIGNED)
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19-Dec-97 4:24 PM EST (2124 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] CLINTON/BOSNIA (S-ONLY) BY DAVID GOLLUST (WHITE HOUSE)

INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON IS BEGINNING AN EFFORT TO LINE UP CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT FOR HIS DECISION TO CONTINUE THE U-S MILITARY PRESENCE IN BOSNIA BEYOND NEXT JUNE. HE IS TAKING A LARGE DELEGATIOON OF LAWMAKERS TO BOSNIA WITH HIM SUNDAY. V-O-A'S DAVID GOLLUST HAS DETAILS FROM THE WHITE HOUSE.

TEXT: MR. CLINTON WILL TAKE A BIPARTISAN GROUP OF AT LEAST TEN SENATORS AND HOUSE MEMBERS WITH HIM ON HIS BOSNIA MISSION IN AN EFFORT TO GET CONGRESS TO SUPPORT AN EXTENDED U-S PRESENCE. THE PRESIDENT'S ANNOUNCEMENT THURSDAY THAT HE HAS DECIDED, IN PRINCIPLE TO KEEP U-S FORCES IN BOSNIA HAS BEEN WIDELY CRITICIZED BY REPUBLICANS. AND SPOKESMAN MIKE MCCURRY SAYS THE PRESIDENT RECOGNIZES HE HAS WORK TO DO TO OVERCOME THE OPPOSITION:

WE KNOW WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE A VERY PERSUASIVE CASE FOR THE U-S PARTICIPATION IN AN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PRESENCE IN BOSNIA BEYOND JUNE OF 1998. BUT WE ARE VERY ENCOURAGED WITH THE COMMON SENSE PRACTICAL AND NON-PARTISAN WAY THAT MEMBERS OF CONGRESS SEEM TO BE REACTING TO THE PRESIDENT'S ANNOUNCEMENT.

THE PRESIDENT WILL SPEND ABOUT 14 HOURS BOSNIA MONDAY -- PAYING A PRE-CHRISTMAS VISIT TO U-S FORCES, BUT ALSO MEETING THE COUNTRY'S JOINT PRESIDENCY AND MAKING AN ADDRESS TO THE PEOPLE OF BOSNIA FROM SARAJEVO. (SIGNED)
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19-Dec-97 6:08 PM EST (2308 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] E-U / RACISM (L ONLY) BY JOHN FRASER (BRUSSELS)

INTRO: A PUBLIC OPINION POLL CARRIED OUT IN ALL 15 EUROPEAN UNION NATIONS SAYS TWO-THIRDS OF EUROPEANS ADMIT THEY ARE RACIST. JOHN FRASER IN BRUSSELS REPORTS THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED AS PART OF "1997: THE EUROPEAN YEAR AGAINST RACISM."

TEXT: THE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED BY THE E-U'S POLLING UNIT, EURO BAROMETER, EARLIER THIS YEAR. MORE THAN 16-THOUSAND PEOPLE WERE INTERVIEWED, WITH DATA GATHERED IN ALL 15 E-U COUNTRIES.

THE SURVEY REVEALS THAT ONE-THIRD OF E-U CITIZENS ADMIT TO BEING VERY OR QUITE RACIST. A FURTHER ONE-THIRD SAY THEY ARE A LITTLE RACIST. THIS LEAVES ONLY 34 PERCENT OF EUROPEANS WHO SAY THEY ARE NOT RACIST AT ALL.

THE SURVEY INDICATES THE DANES ARE THE MOST RACIST NATION IN EUROPE, FOLLOWED BY THE BELGIANS AND THEN THE FINNS. THE LEAST RACIST ARE THE PORTUGESE, FOLLOWED BY THE LUXEMBOURGERS.

THE SURVEY SHOWS RACISM IS STRONGEST AMONG OLDER PEOPLE, AND LEAST STRONG AMONG THOSE IN THEIR EARLY 20'S.

THOSE WHO ARE OPPOSED TO THE E-U ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE RACISTS THAN THOSE WHO ADMIRE THE EUROPEAN UNION. AND PEOPLE WHO CONSIDER THEMSELVES RIGHT WINGERS ARE MORE RACIST THAN THOSE WHO CALL THEMSELVES LEFTISTS.

THE SURVEY ALSO REVEALS THAT MOST EUROPEANS BELIEVE THAT PEOPLE FROM MINORITY GROUPS FACE DISCRIMINATION IN THE LABOR MARKET. IT SAYS ONLY ONE-THIRD OF EUROPEANS WOULD FAVOR AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE FROM MINORITY GROUPS WHO ARE LIVING IN THEIR COUNTRY.

TWO-THIRDS SAY ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS SHOULD BE REPATRIATED, WHILE AROUND ONE IN FIVE BELIEVES THAT EVEN LEGALLY ESTABLISHED IMMIGRANTS SHOULD BE EXPELLED.

SIX IN TEN EUROPEANS BELIEVE THAT PEOPLE FROM MINORITY GROUPS SHOULD ADOPT THE CULTURE OR CUSTOMS OF THE COUNTRY WHERE THEY LIVE, SO THEY FIT IN BETTER.

AND A SIMILAR PROPORTION OF EUROPEANS SAY THEIR COUNTRY HAS REACHED ITS LIMIT, AND THERE WOULD BE PROBLEMS WITH AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE BELONGING TO MINORITY GROUPS. THE FINNS HAVE THE FEWEST FEARS ABOUT THIS, WHILE THE GREEKS, BELGIANS, AND GERMANS ARE MOST WARY OF MORE FOREIGNERS.

THE POLL ALSO LOOKED AT PEOPLE'S FEELINGS ABOUT SLEAZE AND CORRUPTION IN THE POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT AND STATE INSTITUTIONS.

IT REVEALS THAT NEARLY ONE-HALF OF EUROPEANS HAVE WORRIES ABOUT INCREASING CORRUPTION AMONG POLITICANS, POOR PUBLIC SERVICES, THE DISPARITY BETWEEN RICH AND POOR, AND THEIR OWN POWERLESSNESS TO CHANGE SOCIETY. ONLY ONE-QUARTER OF EUROPEANS SAY THEY HAVE A POSITIVE OPINION OF THE ESTABLISHMENT.

MISTRUST IS HIGHEST IN GERMANY, GREECE, AND BELGIUM. THE MOST TRUSTFUL ARE THE DANES, FOLLOWED BY THE LUXEMBOURGERS. (SIGNED)
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19-Dec-97 8:38 AM EST (1338 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] EURO STOCKS (S-ONLY) BY JACK HUIZENGA (LONDON)

INTRO: STOCK PRICES WERE OFF SHARPLY IN TRADING FRIDAY ON EUROPEAN MARKETS. V-O-A'S JACK HUIZENGA HAS THE CLOSING MARKET REPORT FROM LONDON.

TEXT: THE MARKETS IN EUROPE FOLLOWED TOKYO AND NEW YORK IN A NOSEDIVE, AS TRADERS REMAIN JITTERY ABOUT ASIA'S FINANCIAL PROBLEMS.

THE BIGGEST DROP WAS IN LONDON, WITH THE LOSSES ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY AS WALL STREET BEGAN TO PLUMMET. THE FOOTSIE-100 INDEX CLOSED DOWN MORE THAN 148 POINTS, ALMOST TWO-AND-NINE-TENTHS PERCENT OF THE MARKET'S TOTAL VALUE. IN PARIS, THE CAC-40 INDEX FELL MORE THAN 71 POINTS, ABOUT TWO-AND-THREE-TENTHS PERCENT.

AND IN FRANKFURT, THE DAX-30 INDEX CLOSED DOWN MORE THAN 81 POINTS, ALMOST TWO PERCENT.

ON THE LONDON CURRENCY EXCHANGE, THE VALUE OF THE U-S DOLLAR ROSE AGAINST THE GERMAN MARK, THE JAPANESE YEN, AND THE BRITISH POUND.
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19-Dec-97 2:21 PM EST (1921 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] FRIDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: SOUTH KOREA'S ELECTION OF LONG-TIME DISSIDENT KIM DAE JUNG AS ITS NEW PRESIDENT IS DRAWING SUBSTANTIAL COMMENT IN FRIDAY'S U-S PRESS. ANOTHER POPULAR TOPIC IS PRESIDENT CLINTON'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF AN EXTENSION OF THE MISSION OF U-S TROOPS IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA.

OTHER TOPICS TO BE FOUND IN THE DAY'S EDITORIALS INCLUDE: THE POLITICAL SHUFFLE IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC; THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN JAPAN AND ASIA; [OPT] A REPORT ON GENDER SEGREGATION DURING BASIC TRAINING FOR THE U-S MILITARY; [END OPT] AND A FUROR OVER ATTEMPTS BY THE STATE DEPARTMENT AND THE WHITE HOUSE TO MUZZLE A VOICE OF AMERICA CHINESE BROADCAST. NOW, HERE IS _________________WITH SOME QUOTES AND A CLOSER LOOK IN TODAY'S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

TEXT: SEVERAL PAPERS ARE RUNNING PROMINENT EDITORIALS ON THE NEW PRESIDENT-ELECT OF SOUTH KOREA, A MAN WHOM THE GOVERNMENT ONCE JAILED, AND EVEN TRIED TO ASSASSINATE, KIM DAE JUNG. IN TODAY'S "LOS ANGELES TIMES," THE TOPIC IS THE LEAD EDITORIAL, AND THE PAPER TALKS ABOUT THE BOLD ECONOMIC MOVES MR. KIM MUST MAKE TO SAVE KOREA'S ECONOMY.

VOICE: SHOCKED AND EMBITTERED BY THE ECONOMIC DEBACLE THAT HAS FORCED THEIR PROUD AND PROSPEROUS NATION TO BECOME A SUPPLICANT FOR INTERNATIONAL AID, SOUTH KOREAN VOTERS HAVE FOR THE FIRST TIME REJECTED THE CANDIDATE OF THE RULING PARTY, CHOOSING LONGTIME OPPOSITION LEADER KIM DAE JUNG AS THEIR NEXT PRESIDENT. FOR [MR.] KIM IT IS A TRIUMPHANT ACHIEVEMENT, THE CULMINATION OF DECADES OF OFTEN COURAGEOUS AND LIFE-RISKING DISSENT AGAINST EARLIER AUTHORITARIAN MILITARY GOVERNMENTS AND THE CAPSTONE TO A CAREER THAT HAS INCLUDED FOUR RUNS AT THE PRESIDENCY. FOR KOREANS, IT IS A GAMBLE THAT A MAN WHO HAS LITTLE STANDING WITH THE BIG-BUSINESS AND BIG-MONEY ELITE CAN LEAD THE NATION BACK TO ECONOMIC STABILITY AND PROGRESS.

TEXT: "THE BOSTON GLOBE" IS ALSO PLEASED, CALLING MR. KIM, IN ITS EDITORIAL HEADLINE, "A WELCOME LEADER."

VOICE: [MR.] KIM SHOULD ALSO BE WELCOME AS A POLITICIAN WHO IS WELL SUITED TO EXPLORE A DIALOGUE WITH THE REGIME IN PYONGYANG. [OPT] THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT SIGNALS FROM THE NORTH THAT SUCH A DIALOGUE WOULD BE WELCOME, AND AMERICAN OFFICIALS RECOGNIZE THAT IT COULD COMPLEMENT THE CURRENT FOUR-POWER TALKS THAT INCLUDE BEIJING AND WASHINGTON AS WELL AS SEOUL AND PYONGYANG. [END OPT] IF [MR.] KIM CAN ACHIEVE FINANCIAL RECOVERY AND RECONCILIATION WITH THE NORTH, HE MAY BE REMEMBERED AS HIS COUNTRY'S NELSON MANDELA.

TEXT: AND IN "THE NEW YORK TIMES," THESE THOUGHTS ON HIS VICTORY.

VOICE: MR. KIM'S PRIMARY TASK WILL BE TO INSTITUTE SOUTH KOREA'S RECENTLY SIGNED BAILOUT ACCORD WITH THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. UNDER IT, [SOUTH] KOREA WILL RECEIVE ALMOST 60-BILLION-DOLLARS TO PAY BACK, IF NEEDED, SKITTISH FOREIGN INVESTORS WHO WITHDRAW THEIR LOANS. IF THE PROGRAM WORKS, INVESTORS WILL NO LONGER FEAR FOR THEIR LOANS AND WILL CEASE RAIDING KOREA'S DOLLAR RESERVES. .... BUT [ONE PORTION] .. OF THE AGREEMENT, WHICH INSISTS THAT KOREA CRACK DOWN ON GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND .... KEEP INFLATION LOW ... WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE [TO ACHIEVE]. ... THE ELECTION PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FUND TO CORRECT ITS MISTAKES BEFORE THEY DO HARM.

TEXT: STILL ON THE SUBJECT OF ASIA'S ECONOMIC TROUBLES, "USA TODAY" IS ASKING IN TODAY'S LEAD EDITORIAL HEADLINE, "WILL JAPAN ACT DECISIVELY, [AND] AVOID [A] GLOBAL RECESSION. THE PAPER SAYS THAT IS N O T LIKELY, BUT IT URGES PRIME MINISTER HASHIMOTO TO TAKE BOLDER STEPS THAN HE HAS SO FAR.

VOICE: UNFORTUNATELY, [MR.] HASHIMOTO'S LATEST PLAN, WHILE PERHAPS SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A NEW ATTITUDE, ISN'T ENOUGH TO ENSURE SUCCESS. .... THE PACKAGE DOESN'T EVEN REVERSE THE SALES TAX THAT TORPEDOED JAPAN'S FRAGILE ECONOMIC RECOVERY EARLIER THIS YEAR. IN SHORT, HASHIMOTO HAS ACTED WITH THE TIMIDITY OF [FORMER U-S PRESIDENT] HERBERT HOOVER [WHO PRESIDED OVER THE BEGINNING OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION HERE] RATHER THAN WITH THE AUDACITY OF AN FDR [FRANKLIN DELANO ROOSEVELT, THE PRESIDENT WHO LIFTED THE COUNTRY OUT OF THE DEPRESSION.]

TEXT: PRESIDENT CLINTON'S ANNOUNCEMENT THURSDAY THAT U-S TROOPS WILL REMAIN INDEFINITELY IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA DRAWS THIS RESPONSE FROM "THE NEW YORK POST.

VOICE: THE PRESIDENT WAS RIGHT TO SHIFT COURSE. WASHINGTON HAS A LEGITIMATE, AND CONTINUING, ROLE TO PLAY IN PACIFYING THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT THERE, THE AMERICAN ROLE IS, AND MUST REMAIN, IN LARGE MEASURE A MILITARY ROLE. BUT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE EVERY RIGHT TO BE ANGRY AT THE PRESIDENT FOR THE TWO-FACED, DISINGENUOUS APPROACH HE HAS TAKEN. FOR THE PRESIDENT KNEW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TROOP DEPLOYMENT IN THE BALKANS THAT HIS ARTIFICIAL DEADLINE WAS A FRAUD. AND YET, HE DID WHAT HE USUALLY DOES IN DIFFICULT CIRCUMSTANCES: HE LIED.

TEXT: "THE NEW YORK TIMES" HAS THESE THOUGHTS ON THE TROOP EXTENSION.

VOICE: BY EXTENDING THE STAY OF AMERICAN TROOPS IN BOSNIA, PRESIDENT CLINTON MAY HELP PRESERVE AN UNSTEADY PEACE. BUT THE USE OF NATO PEACEKEEPERS ALONE CANNOT SOLVE THE POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND ETHNIC PROBLEMS THAT MAKE BOSNIA SUCH A TROUBLED LAND. IT WOULD BE A GOOD DEAL EASIER FOR AMERICANS TO SUPPORT MR. CLINTON'S DECISION IF THEY THOUGHT HE HAD A REALISTIC EXIT STRATEGY AND WERE MORE CONFIDENT THAT EUROPE WULD TAKE GREATER RESPONSIBILITY FOR BOSNIA'S FUTURE SECURITY AND CIVILIAN NEEDS. .... THE TRUTH IS THAT EUROPE HAS THE ABILITY TO FINISH THE JOB IN BOSNIA, BUT NOT THE POLITICAL WILL. IT WILL NEVER FIND THAT WILL WITHOUT THE PRESSURE OF AN AMERICAN DRIVE TOWARD WITHDRAWAL.

TEXT: TODAY'S "PROVIDENCE JOURNAL-BULLETIN" LAMENTS THE FALL OF THE MAN IT CALLS "ONE OF THE MOST BRILLIANT AND COMPLEX PERSONALITIES OF POST-COMMUNIST EASTERN EUROPE, CZECH PRIME MINISTER VACLAV KLAUS, WHO ANNOUNCED HIS RESIGNATION LAST MONTH BUT WHO STAYED ON UNTIL TUESDAY. SAYS THE RHODE ISLAND DAILY:

VOICE: THERE'S A LESSON IN MR. KLAUS'S EXPERIENCE. IF YOUR PERSONALITY IS SYMPATHETIC ENOUGH, YOU MAY BE FORGIVEN FAILINGS IN YOUR POLICIES; AND IF YOUR POLICIES WORK WELL ENOUGH, YOUR ARROGANCE MAY BE TOLERATED. BUT ARROGANCE-CUM-INEPTITUDE IS A DEADLY COMBINATION ..... [OPT] HERE'S ANOTHER LESSON: THEORIES, NO MATTER HOW WELL GROUNDED, DON'T ALWAYS WORK OUT AS EXPECTED IN PRACTICE. [END OPT] .... BUT HISTORY WILL NOT BE TOO HARD ON MR. KLAUS ... A COURAGEOUS OPPONENT OF THE COMMUNIST REGIME, AND ... ONE OF THE KEY ENGINEERS OF THE TRANSITION TO A SYSTEM EXHIBITING SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER FREEDOM IN POLITICS AND ECONOMICS.....

TEXT: "THE WASHINGTON POST," NOTING THE RECENT GOVERNMENT COMMISSION REPORT THAT RECOMMENDS SEGREGATING THE MILITARY FORCES BY GENDER DURING BASIC TRAINING, COMMENTS:

VOICE: FOR ALL OF THE CONTROVERSY IT AROUSED, THE RECOMMENDATION ON BASIC TRAINING DOES NOT REPRESENT THE REAL SUBSTANCE OF THE REPORT. ...WHILE THEIR REPORT OFFERS NO SWEEPING JUDGMENTS, MANY OF ITS FINDINGS, HAVING NOTHING TO DO WITH WOMEN IN THE MILITARY, SHOULD SET OFF WARNING BELLS. ONE-THIRD OF ALL RECRUITS FAIL TO COMPLETE THEIR FIRST TOUR OF DUTY. .... MANY DRILL SERGEANTS AND OTHER TRAINERS AREN'T THEMSELVES ADEQUATELY TRAINED, AND - - EXCEPT IN THE MARINES - - THEY ARE DEMORALIZED AND NOT SUFFICIENTLY REWARDED FOR LONG HOURS AND DIFFICULT WORK.

TEXT: TODAY'S "WASHINGTON TIMES" IS CRITICIZING AN ATTEMPT BY THE STATE DEPARTMENT AND THE WHITE HOUSE TO HAVE THE VOICE OF AMERICA CANCEL THE BROADCAST OF AN OUTSPOKEN INTERVIEW IN MANDARIN BY CHINESE DISSIDENT WEI JINGSHENG, SO AS NOT TO OFFEND THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT. SAYS "THE WASHINGTON TIMES:

VOICE: WHAT CAN THEY HAVE BEEN THINKING OF, THOSE STATE DEPARTMENT AND WHITE HOUSE OFFICIALS ?.... WEI JINGSHENG .... COMES TO GIVE AN INTERVIEW TO THE VOICE OF AMERICA, WHOSE BROADCASTS INTO CHINA (AND ELSEWHERE) OFFER THE TRUTH ABOUT THE WORLD AND ITS DOINGS TO CITIZENS LIVING ON A DIET OF LIES FED THEM BY THEIR GOVERNMENT. AND U-S AMBASSADOR TO CHINA JAMES SASSER AND NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER SAMUEL BERGER QUICKLY GO INTO ACTION TO TRY (UNSUCCESSFULLY) TO PERSUADE V-O-A TO REFRAIN FROM BROADCASTING THE WEI INTERVIEW TO CHINA. WHY? BECAUSE, THEY EXPLAIN, WE HAD PROMISED NOT TO [QUOTE] 'USE' [UNQUOTE] MR. WEI POLITICALLY IN NEGOTIATING HIS RELEASE WITH CHINA'S DICTATORS. AND BECAUSE BROADCASTING THE ... MOST FAMOUS DISSIDENT BACK TO HIS STILL-OPPRESSED COUNTRYMEN MIGHT INTERFERE WITH OUR HOPES TO GET OTHER DISSIDENTS RELEASED FROM THEIR DECADES OF TORTURE IN CHINESE LABOR CAMPS. THIS IS SO COMPLETELY WRONGHEADED THAT IT'S HARD TO KNOW WHERE TO BEGIN [UNDERSTOOD: TO CRITICIZE IT] .... IT IS N O T THE BUSINESS OF V-O-A TO MAKE POLITICAL 'USE' OF ANYBODY. ... V-O-A IS N O T THE PROPAGANDA ARM OF THE U-S GOVERNMENT. BY LAW, V-O-A HAS EDITORIAL INDEPENDENCE IN ITS NEWS-GATHERING AND REPORTING FUNCTIONS.

TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF EDITORIAL COMMENT FROM SOME OF FRIDAY'S U-S NEWSPAPERS.
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19-Dec-97 10:16 AM EST (1516 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] GREECE / CRASH (L) BY ANTHEE CARASSAVA (ATHENS)

INTRO: A SPECIAL AMERICAN PLANE HAS ARRIVED IN GREECE TO ASSIST IN THE MASSIVE SEARCH FOR A MISSING UKRAINIAN PLANE AND ITS 70 PASSENGERS AND CREW. BUT ANTHEE CARASSAVA IN ATHENS REPORTS HOPES OF FINDING SURVIVORS HAVE FADED.

TEXT: THE AMERICAN P-3 SEARCH PLANE ARRIVED FROM SICILY TO JOIN FORCES WITH A GREEK SEARCH OPERATION FOR THE MISSING UKRAINIAN PLANE.

THE U-S AIRCRAFT IS A SUBMARINE DETECTOR PLANE. IT WILL SCAN RUGGED TERRAIN IN NORTHERN GREECE IN HOPE OF TRACING METAL FRAGMENTS, LARGER PIECES, OR THE ENTIRE BODY OF THE MISSING UKRAINIAN AIRCRACFT.

THE U-S ASSISTANCE FOLLOWS TWO DAYS OF FRUITLESS SEARCHES AFTER THE UKRAINIAN JET DISAPPEARED LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE MAKING ITS SECOND ATTEMPT TO LAND AT SALONIKA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN NORTHERN GREECE.

THE GREEK MILITARY FRIDAY QUADRUPLED THE SIZE OF ITS SEARCH OPERATION. TWO TRANSPORT PLANES, 20 HELICOPTERS AND MORE THAN FIVE-THOUSAND GREEK SOLDIERS ARE SEARCHING RAVINES AND THOUSANDS OF MILES OF SNOW-COVERED WILDERNESS NORTH OF MOUNT OLYMPUS, THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RANGE IN GREECE. THICK FOG, LOW CLOUDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE TO HAMPER SEARCH EFFORTS.

MILITARY OFFICIALS SUSPECT THE UKRAINIAN PLANE MAY HAVE HIT THE PEAK OF A MOUNTAIN ABOUT 30 KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST OF SALONIKA.

CIVIL AVIATION AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS ARE BLAMING THE PILOT FOR THE TRAGIC COURSE OF THE FLIGHT. THEY SAY HE HAD LOST HIS ORIENTATION, HAD TROUBLE COMMUNICATING IN ENGLISH, AND WAS NOT ABLE TO CARRY OUT INSTRUCTIONS GIVEN BY TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS.

OTHERS BLAME WHAT THEY CALL SALONIKA'S ILL-EQUIPPED AIRPORT AND LACK OF UP-TO-DATE RADAR SYSTEMS. THEY SAY THE TRAGEDY MAY HAVE BEEN AVERTED IF THE GREEK AIRPORT HAD THE PROPER EQUIPMENT. (SIGNED)
NEB/AC/JWH/RRM
19-Dec-97 2:34 PM EST (1934 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[07] N-Y ECON WRAP (S & L) BY BRECK ARDERY (NEW YORK)

INTRO: STOCK PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES WERE DOWN TODAY (FRIDAY) IN A VERY VOLATILE SESSION. V-O-A'S CORRESPONDENT BRECK ARDERY REPORTS FROM NEW YORK.

TEXT: THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE CLOSED AT 77 HUNDRED 56, DOWN 90 POINTS OR MORE THAN ONE PERCENT. FOR THE WEEK, THE INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE LOST 82 POINTS. THE STANDARD AND POOR'S 500 INDEX CLOSED FRIDAY AT 946, DOWN EIGHT POINTS.

ALTHOUGH THE LOSSES AT THE CLOSE OF TRADING WERE STEEP, THEY WERE NOTHING LIKE THE HUGE DOWNTREND IN STOCK PRICES EARLIER IN THE SESSION. NEAR MID-MORNING, THE INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE HAD LOST MORE THAN 250 POINTS, OR THREE PERCENT. THE VOLUME ON THE NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE WAS 787 MILLION SHARES, THE SECOND-HIGHEST IN HISTORY.

ANALYSTS SAY MUCH OF THE VOLATILITY WAS RELATED TO SO-CALLED "TRIPLE WITCHING" WHICH MEANS THE SIMULTANEOUS EXPIRATION ON FRIDAY OF STOCK OPTIONS, INDEX OPTIONS AND STOCK FUTURES CONTRACTS.

BUT THERE WAS ALSO CONTINUED CONCERN ABOUT THE EFFECT OF THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE PROFITS OF U-S CORPORATIONS.

U-S REGULATORS HAVE APPROVED A 17 BILLION DOLLAR JOINT VENTURE INVOLVING THE SHELL AND TEXACO OIL COMPANIES. THE DEAL PROVIDES FOR COMBINING THE DOMESTIC REFINING AND MARKETING OPERATIONS OF THE TWO COMPANIES WHICH WILL CREATE THE LARGEST OIL MARKING ORGANIZATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

THE GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY SAYS IT WILL RAISE ITS STOCK BUY- BACK PROGRAM FROM 13 TO 17 BILLION DOLLARS. G-E ALSO RAISED ITS QUARTERLY STOCK DIVIDEND BY ABOUT 2O PERCENT. EL AL, THE ISRAELI AIRLINE, SAYS IT WILL BUY FIVE JETLINERS FROM BOEING OF THE UNITED STATES IN A DEAL WORTH ABOUT 180 MILLION DOLLARS. BOEING BEAT OUT A RIVAL BID FROM AIRBUS INDUSTRIES, THE EUROPEAN CONSORTIUM.

THE HARRAH'S ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY SAYS IT WILL SOON BE THE LARGEST CASINO GAMING FIRM IN THE WORLD. HARRAH'S WILL ACQUIRE THE SHOWBOAT CASINO COMPANY IN A DEAL WORTH ONE POINT TWO BILLION DOLLARS.(SIGNED) NEB/NY/BA/LSF/PT
19-Dec-97 5:11 PM EST (2211 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[08] PRESIDENT CLINTON'S BOSNIA TROOP EXTENSION BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON HAS MADE A LONG-ANTICIPATED ANNOUNCEMENT THAT U-S TROOPS WILL HAVE TO STAY IN BOSNIA INDEFINITELY, IN ORDER TO HELP THE WAR-TORN COUNTRY PREPARE FOR FULL SELF-GOVERNMENT. THE ANNOUNCEMENT, ON THE EVE OF MR. CLINTON'S TRIP THERE TO VISIT THE TROOPS FOR CHRISTMAS, HAS CAUSED A FLURRY OF REACTION IN THE U-S PRESS. WE GET A SAMPLING NOW FROM _________________ IN TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.

TEXT: IN MAKING HIS ANNOUNCEMENT, THE PRESIDENT DENIED REPUBLICAN ACCUSATIONS THAT HE AND HIS AIDES HAD EARLIER MISLED CONGRESS IN SAYING THE TROOPS WOULD MEET THE JUNE EXIT DEADLINE. HOWEVER, MR. CLINTON CANDIDLY ADMITTED HE WAS WRONG WHEN HE AGREED TO AN EXTENSION OF THE TROOP PULLOUT TO JUNE 1998. HOWEVER, HE ASKED THE PUBLIC TO LOOK AT WHAT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED IN THE MONTHS SINCE THE NATO-LED FORCE MOVED INTO THE BALKANS TO STOP THE VICIOUS CIVIL WAR.

MANY OF THE NATION'S NEWSPAPERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PRESIDENT, WITH SOME NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS, INCLUDING "THE SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE," WHICH IS NOT HAPPY WITH THE DECISION, SENSING ANOTHER CASE OF "MISSION CREEP."

VOICE: PRESIDENT CLINTON'S OPEN-ENDED EXTENSION OF THE U-S MILITARY COMMITMENT TO BOSNIA WAS THE INEVITABLE RESULT OF HIS OWN VAGUE AND CHANGING POLICIES IN A DANGEROUS PLACE THAT OFFERS NOTHING BUT GRIEF AND IMPOSSIBLE CHOICES. [MR.] CLINTON SAYS AMERICAN TROOPS ARE NEEDED TO KEEP THE FRAGILE AND SULLEN PEACE AMONG CROATS, MUSLIMS AND SERBS WHO HAD FOUGHT AN UGLY ETHNO-RELIGIOUS WAR FOR FOUR YEARS BEFORE NATO PEACEKEEPERS PUT A LID ON THE VIOLENCE IN 1995. BUT STILL THE FURY LINGERS ..... THIS WILL BE THE THIRD TIME [MR.] CLINTON HAS CHANGED DEADLINES FOR WITHDRAWAL. ALTHOUGH HE DENIES IT, THE EXTENSION HAS ALL THE MARKINGS OF 'MISSION CREEP,' A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF OUR MILITARY PRESENCE IN A HOSTILE SITUATION, WITHOUT A SPECIFIC MISSION TO ACCOMPLISH OR A PLAN TO LEAVE. .... BUT IF WE ARE TO BE COMMITTED TO THE TREACHEROUS BOSNIAN BOG FOR THE DURATION, THE PRESIDENT IS RIGHT TO DEMAND THAT NATO STRATEGISTS PRODUCE A CLEAR MISSION PLAN WITH 'CONCRETE BENCHMARKS' TO MEASURE PROGRESS TOWARD A SPECIFIC GOAL WHICH EVERYONE AGREES MUST BE ACCOMPLISHED BEFORE TROOPS ARE PULLED OUT. [OPT] WHEN HE MAKES HIS CHRISTMAS WEEK VISIT TO THE 85-HUNDRED U-S TROOPS SERVING [THERE] .... [MR.] CLINTON SHOULD BRING WITH HIM AN HONEST APPRAISAL OF THE SITUATION, A FIRM AND DETAILED PLAN OF ACTION AND THE CLEAR CONGRESSIONAL AND PUBLIC SUPPORT OF THE MISSION THAT HE HAS FAILED TO OBTAIN SO FAR. [END OPT]

TEXT: "THE BOSTON GLOBE" SOUNDS AS IF IT IS ONLY RELUCTANTLY GIVING ITS APPROVAL TO THE EXTENSION.

VOICE: IT IS ALMOST UNIVERSALLY ACCEPTED BY THOSE WITH EXPERIENCE IN BOSNIA [-HERZEGOVINA] THAT THE THREE-SIDED CIVIL WAR, WHICH FORMALLY ENDED WITH THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORD IN 1995, WOULD BREAK OUT AGAIN WITH RENEWED SAVAGERY IF NATO FORCES LEFT. PRESIDENT CLINTON KNOWS THIS AND IS WORKING OUT A NEW ARRANGEMENT FOR U-S FORCES DUE TO COME HOME IN JUNE. AMERICANS ... ARE RIGHTLY SUSPICIOUS OF ANYTHING THAT SMELLS OF AN OPEN-ENDED QUAGMIRE AND CASUALTIES. BUT EXIT DATES ARE SELDOM PRACTICAL AND CAN OFTEN BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE.

TEXT: "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES" SAYS THE PRESIDENT MUST NOW "SELL" HIS ARGUMENT REGARDING THE NEED TO STAY THERE TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC.

VOICE: ONCE AGAIN IT IS INCUMBENT UPON THE PRESIDENT TO MAKE HIS CASE TO THE CONGRESS AND THE PUBLIC WHY AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN TROOPS MUST EXTEND THEIR STAY IN THIS PIT OF ANTIPATHY. WHAT IS TO SAY BEYOND THE OBVIOUS? IF NATO DOES NOT STAY ON AS A UNIFIED PEACEKEEPING FORCE IT MAY HAVE TO RETURN IN AN OFFENSIVE MODE.

TEXT: "THE NEW YORK POST" AGREES WITH THE PRESIDENT TOO, BUT IS FRANK IN ITS CRITICISM OF MR. CLINTON FOR NOT BEING MORE TRUTHFUL ABOUT THE LENGTH OF THE U-S MISSION IN THE FIRST PLACE.

VOICE: THE PRESIDENT WAS RIGHT TO SHIFT COURSE. WASHINGTON HAS A LEGITIMATE, AND CONTINUING, ROLE TO PLAY IN PACIFYING THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT THERE, THE AMERICAN ROLE IS, AND MUST REMAIN, IN LARGE MEASURE A MILITARY ROLE. BUT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE EVERY RIGHT TO BE ANGRY AT THE PRESIDENT FOR THE TWO-FACED, DISINGENUOUS APPROACH HE HAS TAKEN. FOR THE PRESIDENT KNEW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TROOP DEPLOYMENT IN THE BALKANS THAT HIS ARTIFICIAL DEADLINE WAS A FRAUD. AND YET, HE DID WHAT HE USUALLY DOES IN DIFFICULT CIRCUMSTANCES: HE LIED.

TEXT: "THE NEW YORK TIMES" HAS THESE THOUGHTS ON THE TROOP EXTENSION.

VOICE: BY EXTENDING THE STAY OF AMERICAN TROOPS IN BOSNIA, PRESIDENT CLINTON MAY HELP PRESERVE AN UNSTEADY PEACE. BUT THE USE OF NATO PEACEKEEPERS ALONE CANNOT SOLVE THE POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND ETHNIC PROBLEMS THAT MAKE BOSNIA SUCH A TROUBLED LAND. IT WOULD BE A GOOD DEAL EASIER FOR AMERICANS TO SUPPORT MR. CLINTON'S DECISION IF THEY THOUGHT HE HAD A REALISTIC EXIT STRATEGY AND WERE MORE CONFIDENT THAT EUROPE WOULD TAKE GREATER RESPONSIBILITY FOR BOSNIA'S FUTURE SECURITY AND CIVILIAN NEEDS. .... THE TRUTH IS THAT EUROPE HAS THE ABILITY TO FINISH THE JOB IN BOSNIA, BUT NOT THE POLITICAL WILL. IT WILL NEVER FIND THAT WILL WITHOUT THE PRESSURE OF AN AMERICAN DRIVE TOWARD WITHDRAWAL.

TEXT: LASTLY, "THE WASHINGTON POST," LIKE ITS NEW YORK COUNTERPART, SAYS THE PRESIDENT'S LACK OF CANDOR A YEAR AGO IS CATCHING UP WITH HIM NOW.

VOICE: PRESIDENT CLINTON IS PAYING A POLITICAL PRICE FOR REVERSING DIRECTION AND DECIDING TO EXTEND INDEFINITELY, INSTEAD OF ENDING ON A DATE CERTAIN, THE AMERICAN GROUND PRESENCE IN BOSNIA. HE BROKE A PROMISE. BUT IT WAS ALWAYS AN UNWISE PROMISE, SINCE IT LOOKED NOT TO ACTUAL RESULTS BUT TO AN ARBITRARY 'EXIT STRATEGY.' MR. CLINTON IS RIGHT TO MOVE ON. HE CAN EASE SOME OF THE POLITICAL STRAIN BY STAYING ALERT TO CONGRESSIONAL AND PUBLIC ANXIETIES ABOUT CASUALTIES AND 'QUAGMIRE.' HE CAN MAKE SURE OTHERS AMONG THE NATO-LED BOSNIA PEACEKEEPERS CARRY A FULL SHARE OF THE BUDGETARY LOAD. ..... IN SHORT, IT IS NOT ENOUGH SIMPLY TO EXTEND AN AMERICAN MILITARY ROLE. IT IS NECESSARY TO USE THE NEW MILITARY COMMITMENT TO LEVERAGE THE CIVILIAN AGENDA. THAT IS THE WAY TO MAKE THE MILITARY COMMITMENT SAFER AND SHORTER AND TO GENERATE AN ATMOSPHERE MAKING ADHERENCE TO DAYTON THE EXPECTED AND THE NORM.

TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF COMMENT ON PRESIDENT CLINTON'S DECISION TO EXTEND, INDEFINITELY, THE U-S MILITARY PEACEKEEPING ROLE IN BOSNIA, IN SUPPORT OF THE NATO MISSION THERE.
NEB/ANG/RRM
19-Dec-97 1:56 PM EST (1856 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[09] PRESIDENT CLINTON'S BOSNIA TROOP EXTENSION BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: PRESIDENT CLINTON HAS MADE A LONG-ANTICIPATED ANNOUNCEMENT THAT U-S TROOPS WILL HAVE TO STAY IN BOSNIA INDEFINITELY, IN ORDER TO HELP THE WAR-TORN COUNTRY PREPARE FOR FULL SELF-GOVERNMENT. THE ANNOUNCEMENT, ON THE EVE OF MR. CLINTON'S TRIP THERE TO VISIT THE TROOPS FOR CHRISTMAS, HAS CAUSED A FLURRY OF REACTION IN THE U-S PRESS. WE GET A SAMPLING NOW FROM _________________ IN TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.

TEXT: IN MAKING HIS ANNOUNCEMENT, THE PRESIDENT DENIED REPUBLICAN ACCUSATIONS THAT HE AND HIS AIDES HAD EARLIER MISLED CONGRESS IN SAYING THE TROOPS WOULD MEET THE JUNE EXIT DEADLINE. HOWEVER, MR. CLINTON CANDIDLY ADMITTED HE WAS WRONG WHEN HE AGREED TO AN EXTENSION OF THE TROOP PULLOUT TO JUNE 1998. HOWEVER, HE ASKED THE PUBLIC TO LOOK AT WHAT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED IN THE MONTHS SINCE THE NATO-LED FORCE MOVED INTO THE BALKANS TO STOP THE VICIOUS CIVIL WAR.

MANY OF THE NATION'S NEWSPAPERS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PRESIDENT, WITH SOME NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS, INCLUDING "THE SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE," WHICH IS NOT HAPPY WITH THE DECISION, SENSING ANOTHER CASE OF "MISSION CREEP."

VOICE: PRESIDENT CLINTON'S OPEN-ENDED EXTENSION OF THE U-S MILITARY COMMITMENT TO BOSNIA WAS THE INEVITABLE RESULT OF HIS OWN VAGUE AND CHANGING POLICIES IN A DANGEROUS PLACE THAT OFFERS NOTHING BUT GRIEF AND IMPOSSIBLE CHOICES. [MR.] CLINTON SAYS AMERICAN TROOPS ARE NEEDED TO KEEP THE FRAGILE AND SULLEN PEACE AMONG CROATS, MUSLIMS AND SERBS WHO HAD FOUGHT AN UGLY ETHNO-RELIGIOUS WAR FOR FOUR YEARS BEFORE NATO PEACEKEEPERS PUT A LID ON THE VIOLENCE IN 1995. BUT STILL THE FURY LINGERS ..... THIS WILL BE THE THIRD TIME [MR.] CLINTON HAS CHANGED DEADLINES FOR WITHDRAWAL. ALTHOUGH HE DENIES IT, THE EXTENSION HAS ALL THE MARKINGS OF 'MISSION CREEP,' A GRADUAL EXPANSION OF OUR MILITARY PRESENCE IN A HOSTILE SITUATION, WITHOUT A SPECIFIC MISSION TO ACCOMPLISH OR A PLAN TO LEAVE. .... BUT IF WE ARE TO BE COMMITTED TO THE TREACHEROUS BOSNIAN BOG FOR THE DURATION, THE PRESIDENT IS RIGHT TO DEMAND THAT NATO STRATEGISTS PRODUCE A CLEAR MISSION PLAN WITH 'CONCRETE BENCHMARKS' TO MEASURE PROGRESS TOWARD A SPECIFIC GOAL WHICH EVERYONE AGREES MUST BE ACCOMPLISHED BEFORE TROOPS ARE PULLED OUT. [OPT] WHEN HE MAKES HIS CHRISTMAS WEEK VISIT TO THE 85-HUNDRED U-S TROOPS SERVING [THERE] .... [MR.] CLINTON SHOULD BRING WITH HIM AN HONEST APPRAISAL OF THE SITUATION, A FIRM AND DETAILED PLAN OF ACTION AND THE CLEAR CONGRESSIONAL AND PUBLIC SUPPORT OF THE MISSION THAT HE HAS FAILED TO OBTAIN SO FAR. [END OPT]

TEXT: "THE BOSTON GLOBE" SOUNDS AS IF IT IS ONLY RELUCTANTLY GIVING ITS APPROVAL TO THE EXTENSION.

VOICE: IT IS ALMOST UNIVERSALLY ACCEPTED BY THOSE WITH EXPERIENCE IN BOSNIA [-HERZEGOVINA] THAT THE THREE-SIDED CIVIL WAR, WHICH FORMALLY ENDED WITH THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORD IN 1995, WOULD BREAK OUT AGAIN WITH RENEWED SAVAGERY IF NATO FORCES LEFT. PRESIDENT CLINTON KNOWS THIS AND IS WORKING OUT A NEW ARRANGEMENT FOR U-S FORCES DUE TO COME HOME IN JUNE. AMERICANS ... ARE RIGHTLY SUSPICIOUS OF ANYTHING THAT SMELLS OF AN OPEN-ENDED QUAGMIRE AND CASUALTIES. BUT EXIT DATES ARE SELDOM PRACTICAL AND CAN OFTEN BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE.

TEXT: "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES" SAYS THE PRESIDENT MUST NOW "SELL" HIS ARGUMENT REGARDING THE NEED TO STAY THERE TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC.

VOICE: ONCE AGAIN IT IS INCUMBENT UPON THE PRESIDENT TO MAKE HIS CASE TO THE CONGRESS AND THE PUBLIC WHY AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN TROOPS MUST EXTEND THEIR STAY IN THIS PIT OF ANTIPATHY. WHAT IS TO SAY BEYOND THE OBVIOUS? IF NATO DOES NOT STAY ON AS A UNIFIED PEACEKEEPING FORCE IT MAY HAVE TO RETURN IN AN OFFENSIVE MODE.

TEXT: "THE NEW YORK POST" AGREES WITH THE PRESIDENT TOO, BUT IS FRANK IN ITS CRITICISM OF MR. CLINTON FOR NOT BEING MORE TRUTHFUL ABOUT THE LENGTH OF THE U-S MISSION IN THE FIRST PLACE.

VOICE: THE PRESIDENT WAS RIGHT TO SHIFT COURSE. WASHINGTON HAS A LEGITIMATE, AND CONTINUING, ROLE TO PLAY IN PACIFYING THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. AND GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT THERE, THE AMERICAN ROLE IS, AND MUST REMAIN, IN LARGE MEASURE A MILITARY ROLE. BUT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE EVERY RIGHT TO BE ANGRY AT THE PRESIDENT FOR THE TWO-FACED, DISINGENUOUS APPROACH HE HAS TAKEN. FOR THE PRESIDENT KNEW AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TROOP DEPLOYMENT IN THE BALKANS THAT HIS ARTIFICIAL DEADLINE WAS A FRAUD. AND YET, HE DID WHAT HE USUALLY DOES IN DIFFICULT CIRCUMSTANCES: HE LIED.

TEXT: "THE NEW YORK TIMES" HAS THESE THOUGHTS ON THE TROOP EXTENSION.

VOICE: BY EXTENDING THE STAY OF AMERICAN TROOPS IN BOSNIA, PRESIDENT CLINTON MAY HELP PRESERVE AN UNSTEADY PEACE. BUT THE USE OF NATO PEACEKEEPERS ALONE CANNOT SOLVE THE POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND ETHNIC PROBLEMS THAT MAKE BOSNIA SUCH A TROUBLED LAND. IT WOULD BE A GOOD DEAL EASIER FOR AMERICANS TO SUPPORT MR. CLINTON'S DECISION IF THEY THOUGHT HE HAD A REALISTIC EXIT STRATEGY AND WERE MORE CONFIDENT THAT EUROPE WOULD TAKE GREATER RESPONSIBILITY FOR BOSNIA'S FUTURE SECURITY AND CIVILIAN NEEDS. .... THE TRUTH IS THAT EUROPE HAS THE ABILITY TO FINISH THE JOB IN BOSNIA, BUT NOT THE POLITICAL WILL. IT WILL NEVER FIND THAT WILL WITHOUT THE PRESSURE OF AN AMERICAN DRIVE TOWARD WITHDRAWAL.

TEXT: LASTLY, "THE WASHINGTON POST," LIKE ITS NEW YORK COUNTERPART, SAYS THE PRESIDENT'S LACK OF CANDOR A YEAR AGO IS CATCHING UP WITH HIM NOW.

VOICE: PRESIDENT CLINTON IS PAYING A POLITICAL PRICE FOR REVERSING DIRECTION AND DECIDING TO EXTEND INDEFINITELY, INSTEAD OF ENDING ON A DATE CERTAIN, THE AMERICAN GROUND PRESENCE IN BOSNIA. HE BROKE A PROMISE. BUT IT WAS ALWAYS AN UNWISE PROMISE, SINCE IT LOOKED NOT TO ACTUAL RESULTS BUT TO AN ARBITRARY 'EXIT STRATEGY.' MR. CLINTON IS RIGHT TO MOVE ON. HE CAN EASE SOME OF THE POLITICAL STRAIN BY STAYING ALERT TO CONGRESSIONAL AND PUBLIC ANXIETIES ABOUT CASUALTIES AND 'QUAGMIRE.' HE CAN MAKE SURE OTHERS AMONG THE NATO-LED BOSNIA PEACEKEEPERS CARRY A FULL SHARE OF THE BUDGETARY LOAD. ..... IN SHORT, IT IS NOT ENOUGH SIMPLY TO EXTEND AN AMERICAN MILITARY ROLE. IT IS NECESSARY TO USE THE NEW MILITARY COMMITMENT TO LEVERAGE THE CIVILIAN AGENDA. THAT IS THE WAY TO MAKE THE MILITARY COMMITMENT SAFER AND SHORTER AND TO GENERATE AN ATMOSPHERE MAKING ADHERENCE TO DAYTON THE EXPECTED AND THE NORM.

TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF COMMENT ON PRESIDENT CLINTON'S DECISION TO EXTEND, INDEFINITELY, THE U-S MILITARY PEACEKEEPING ROLE IN BOSNIA, IN SUPPORT OF THE NATO MISSION THERE.
NEB/ANG/RRM
19-Dec-97 1:56 PM EST (1856 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America

[10] TURKEY / CYPRUS / U-S (L-ONLY) BY DAVID SWAN (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: TURKISH PRIME MINISTER MESUT YILMAZ IS RAISING THE SPECTER OF A PERMANENT PARTITION OF CYPRUS IF THE EUROPEAN UNION PERSISTS IN REJECTING TURKEY'S BID FOR MEMBERSHIP. MR. YILMAZ IS EXPECTED TO DISCUSS THIS AND OTHER ISSUES WITH PRESIDENT CLINTON AT THE WHITE HOUSE FRIDAY. V-O-A'S DAVID SWAN REPORTS.

TEXT: IN A MEETING WITH REPORTERS (THURSDAY) THE PRIME MINISTER DELIVERED A HARSH ATTACK ON THE E-U FOR KEEPING TURKEY OUT OF MEMBERSHIP NEGOTIATIONS WHILE MAKING OVERTURES TO THE GREEK CYPRIOT GOVERNMENT. HE WARNS THIS WILL MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO HEAL THE 23-YEAR-OLD SPLIT ON THE ISLAND.

THE WRONG DECISION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION WILL PROBABLY LEAD THE ISLAND TO PARTITION.

WHEN ASKED IF HE MEANS A PERMANENT PARTITION, MR. YILMAZ ANSWERED "YES." THE E-U HAS REJECTED TURKEY BECAUSE OF CONCERNS ABOUT THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY, ITS HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD AND TENSIONS WITH GREECE.

THE PRIME MINISTER ACCUSED THE EUROPEANS -- AND ESPECIALLY GERMAN CHANCELLOR HELMUT KOHL -- OF INTOLERANCE AND DISCRIMINATION TOWARD MOSTLY ISLAMIC TURKEY.

THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE EUROPEAN UNION WILL EVOLVE AS A CHRISTIAN CLUB IN THE 21ST CENTURY OR IT WILL BECOME A MORE CIVILIZED, MORE UNIVERSAL UNION LIKE (THE) UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

MR. YILMAZ THREATENED TO WITHDRAW TURKEY'S APPLICATION TO THE E-U IF THE GROUP DOES NOT REVERSE ITS STAND, ALTHOUGH HIS FOREIGN MINISTER TOOK A MORE MODERATE TONE (EARLIER THURSDAY).

THE PRIME MINISTER IS USING THIS VISIT TO STRENGTHEN DEFENSE AND ECONOMIC TIES WITH THE UNITED STATES. HE WILL SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUY 49 BOEING JETLINERS WORTH TWO-AND-ONE-HALF BILLION DOLLARS. HOWEVER, HE SAYS THE DEAL WAS MADE A MONTH AGO AND IS NOT AIMED AT THE E-U, OR THE EUROPEAN AIRBUS CONSORTIUM. (SIGNED)
NEB/DS/PT
18-Dec-97 9:20 PM EST (0220 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[11] YEARENDER: NATO/BOSNIA '97 BY ANDRE DE NESNERA (LONDON)

INTRO: THE MAJOR NEWS CONCERNING NATO THIS YEAR WAS ITS EXPANSION EASTWARDS, OPENING MEMBERSHIP TALKS WITH POLAND, THE CZECH REPUBLIC, AND HUNGARY. BUT AS V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE NESNERA REPORTS FROM LONDON, THE WESTERN MILITARY ALLIANCE IN 1997 ALSO CONTINUED TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN BOSNIA.

TEXT: WITH THE END OF THE COLD WAR, NATO HAS BEEN RE-DEFINING ITS ROLE NOW THAT ITS MAIN ADVERSARY -- THE SOVIET UNION -- NO LONGER EXISTS. COOPERATION AGREEMENTS HAVE BEEN SIGNED WITH RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, AND NATO HAS TAKEN THE FIRST MAJOR STEPS TO BRING FORMER WARSAW PACT NATIONS INTO ITS FOLD.

WITH THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION, NATO HAS BEEN RE-DIRECTING ITS PRIORITIES, FROM A PURELY DEFENSIVE MILITARY ALLIANCE TO ONE OF PEACE-KEEPING -- AND BOSNIA IS A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF THAT NEW NATO ROLE.

THE SENIOR ANALYST WITH THE BRITISH PUBLICATION "JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY" -- PAUL BEAVER -- SAYS NATO HAD TO STEP INTO BOSNIA SEVERAL YEARS AGO BECAUSE OF THE TOTAL FAILURE OF THE UNITED NATIONS.

THE OPERATIONS IN BOSNIA HAVE SIGNALLED TO THE WORLD THAT THE U-N IS TOTALLY IMPOTENT AND ABSOLUTELY HOPELESS AT ORGANIZING ANYTHING WHERE THE MILITARY ARE INVOLVED -- MAINLY BECAUSE THE PEOPLE WHO WERE IN THE HIERARCHY OF THE U-N AT THAT TIME WERE BASICALLY PACIFISTS AND COULD NOT UNDERSTAND THE ROLE OF THE MILITARY. THEY WANTED THE MILITARY TO GO AROUND WITH WHITE OVERALLS ON AND NO WEAPONS. NATO HAS HAD TO PROVE THAT SADLY, THIS WORLD REQUIRES PEOPLE WITH WEAPONS WHO ARE VERY WELL TRAINED, VERY WELL DISCIPLINED AND VERY PROFESSIONAL. BOSNIA IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF HOW NATO IS ADAPTING TO THE FUTURE, AND I THINK WE WILL SEE MORE OPERATIONS LIKE THAT BECAUSE SADLY, THERE ARE GOING TO BE MORE WARS.

NATO HAS CURRENTLY ABOUT 35-THOUSAND TROOPS IN BOSNIA AS PART OF THE SO-CALLED "STABILIZATION FORCE." THE TROOPS ARE THERE TO IMPLEMENT THE MILITARY SIDE OF THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORDS. SENIOR NATO SPOKESMAN JAMIE SHEA SAYS FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE, NATO'S ROLE HAS BEEN A SUCCESS.

THE WAR HAS COME TO AN END, THERE IS NO MORE FIGHTING. THE ARMIES HAVE BEEN SEPARATED. WE HAVE HAD GREAT SUCCESS IN DISARMING THOSE ARMIES, SO THAT THEY ARE FAR LESS CAPABLE TODAY TO RESTART A WAR. IN FACT, AS LONG AS NATO IS THERE, THEY COULD NOT RESTART THAT WAR. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, ONE MUST BE HONEST -- THE PEACE PROCESS HAS NOT MOVED FORWARD AS QUICKLY AS WE WOULD HAVE LIKED. BOSNIA TODAY IS STILL A VERY DIVIDED COUNTRY. THE WILLINGNESS OF THE PARTIES TO FORGET THE PAST AND TO COOPERATE -- AS YOU KNOW -- IS VERY SMALL.

THE MANDATE FOR NATO'S CURRENT BOSNIA FORCE RUNS OUT IN JUNE. THE UNITED STATES HAS THE LARGEST CONTINGENT THERE -- ABOUT EIGHT THOUSAND TROOPS. PRESIDENT CLINTON HAS STATED THE U-S WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TROOPS FOR NATO PENDING CONGRESSIONAL FUNDING. THE TWO OTHER MAIN TROOP CONTRIBUTORS -- BRITAIN AND FRANCE -- SAY THEY WILL ALSO STAY.

DEFENSE ANALYST PAUL BEAVER SAYS THERE IS NO QUESTION NATO WILL STAY IN BOSNIA -- AND HE SAYS THE PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN ALLIANCE PREVENTS THE FRAGILE PEACE FROM COLLAPSING.

I AM AFRAID THAT I AM NOT A GREAT FAN OF "TRAIN AND EQUIP" -- THE AMERICAN PROGRAM TO BRING "PARITY" TO THE BOSNIAN FORCES, THE BOSNIACS. IT HAS DONE EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE. IT HAS GIVEN THEM THE ADVANTAGE. FAR MORE EQUIPMENT HAS GONE IN THERE NOW. THE BOSNIAN SERBS ARE DECIMATED IN THEIR ARMED FORCES, THE MORALE IS LOW, THEIR FIGHTING CAPABILITY IS PRETTY ABYSMAL. AND THERE IS A BIG SPLIT BETWEEN THE BOSNIAN SERBS -- THE REPUBLIKA SRPSKA -- AND SERBIA PROPER. THEY ARE NOT GOING TO GET ANY HELP ACROSS THE BORDER FROM BELGRADE. SO WE HAVE TO BE THERE, IF NOW, TO STOP SARAJEVO FROM TAKING REVENGE.

THIS PAST YEAR, NATO FORCES HAVE APPREHENDED SEVERAL PEOPLE ACCUSED OF WAR CRIMES. HOWEVER THE TWO MOST WANTED MEN -- FORMER BOSNIAN SERB LEADER RADOVAN KARADZIC AND HIS MILITARY COMMANDER, GENERAL RADKO MLADIC -- REMAIN AT LARGE.

SENIOR NATO SPOKESMAN JAMIE SHEA SAYS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS EXPRESSED ITS COMMITMENT TO INSURE THOSE ACCUSED OF WAR CRIMES ARE SENT TO THE INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL IN THE HAGUE.

THE PROBLEM, OF COURSE, IS WITH THE (BOSNIAN) SERBS. BUT IT IS THE VIEW OF THE ALLIES THAT AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED, AS THEY INCREASINGLY COME TO REALIZE THAT THEY ARE CONDEMNING THEMSELVES TO IMPOVERISHMENT IF THEY DO NOT COOPERATE WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, AS NEW POLITICAL FORCES -- AS WE SAW IN THE RECENT ELECTIONS -- GAIN GROUND IN REPUBLIKA SRPSKA -- EVENTUALLY, THAT PRESSURE IS GOING TO PAY OFF AND EVENTUALLY WE WILL ALSO SEE (BOSNIAN) SERBS BEING TRANSFERRED TO THE HAGUE. I THINK WE ARE ALL OPTIMISTIC THAT BEFORE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY DOES LEAVE BOSNIA, ALL OF THE (BOSNIAN) SERB WAR CRIMINALS WILL BE JOINING THEIR CROAT AND BOSNIAC COUNTERPARTS IN THE HAGUE.

UNDERSTANDABLY, MR. SHEA DID NOT WANT TO INDICATE WHETHER NATO IS CONTEMPLATING MORE OPERATIONS AGAINST THOSE INDICTED OF WAR CRIMES. BUT DEFENSE ANALYST PAUL BEAVER SAYS SUCH MILITARY ACTIONS WILL CONTINUE.

I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT IN MY MIND THAT PARTICULARLY WITH THE NEW GOVERNMENT IN BRITAIN PUSHING THIS AND (BRITISH PRIME MINISTER TONY) BLAIR AND CLINTON SEEING VERY MUCH EYE-TO-EYE ON THIS MATTER, THAT NATO WILL HAVE TO TAKE OVER SOME OF THE POLICE ROLES. THERE WILL BE MORE OPERATIONS. THEY RELY UPON TOTAL SECRECY AND SURPRISE AND THEY RELY UPON A FEW PEOPLE, HIGHLY TRAINED, GOING IN AND DOING THE JOB. AND SADLY, IF SOMEBODY DOES SOMETHING STUPID AND PULLS A GUN, THEY ARE GOING TO DIE. SO THE WARNING TO INDICTED WAR CRIMINALS, IRRESPECTIVE OF THEIR ETHNIC BACKGROUND, IS -- "COME QUIETLY."

MR. BEAVER SAYS NATO FACES A MAJOR PUBLIC RELATIONS CHALLENGE NEXT YEAR -- HOW TO CONVINCE THE AMERICAN CONGRESS THAT THE UNITED STATES MUST CONTINUE TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN BOSNIA. THE DEFENSE ANALYST SAYS IF CONGRESS DOES NOT ALLOCATE FUNDS FOR THE U-S MILITARY PRESENCE IN BOSNIA, THE AMERICAN TROOPS WILL LEAVE. THAT WILL MEAN THE MAJOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WILL INEVITABLY DO THE SAME, PLUNGING BOSNIA INTO ANOTHER WAR. (SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/JWH/SP
19-Dec-97 3:04 PM EST (2004 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[12] YEARENDER: BRIGHTENED OUTLOOK FOR EUROPE '97 BY FRANK RONALDS (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: 1997 WAS A BANNER YEAR FOR THE COUNTRIES OF EAST AND CENTRAL EUROPE. THE EUROPEAN UNION INVITED THE MOST SUCCESSFUL OF THEM TO START NEGOTIATIONS ABOUT JOINING THE UNION. BUT THERE HAVE BEEN OTHER IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS AS WELL. FRANK RONALDS HAS MORE.

TEXT: AFTER THE COUNTRIES OF EAST AND CENTRAL EUROPE BECAME INDEPENDENT IN 1989, THEY MADE EVERY EFFORT TO INCREASE THEIR TRADE WITH THE WEST. FOR SOME OF THEM -- POLAND, HUNGARY, THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND SLOVENIA -- THOSE EFFORTS HAVE BEEN QUITE SUCCESSFUL.

BUT ACCORDING TO PROFESSOR SIMON JOHNSON, A SPECIALIST ON EASTERN EUROPE AT THE SLOAN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AT THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, TRADE AMONG THE FORMER EAST BLOC COUNTRIES HAS NOW BEGUN TO BURGEON RAPIDLY.

WHAT WE'VE BEGUN TO SEE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS, AND I THINK IT'S REALLY BECOME UNMISTAKABLE THIS YEAR, IS A SWITCH BACK TOWARDS A MORE SENSIBLE NORMAL PATTERN OF TRADE, WHERE A COUNTRY LIKE POLAND, FOR EXAMPLE, DOES A LOT OF TRADE WITH GERMANY BUT ALSO DOES A LOT OF TRADE WITH RUSSIA. WE'RE BEGINNING TO GET TO A MUCH MORE INTEGRATED TRADE PATTERN AGAIN WITHIN THESE EASTERN COUNTRIES.

A RECENT WORLD BANK STUDY FOUND THAT 80 PERCENT OF THE EXPORTS SOLD IN THE WEST BY THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WERE NEW PRODUCTS, NOT SOLD DURING THE COMMUNIST PERIOD. PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS, DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY, SAYS THAT THE SAME IS TRUE OF THE INCREASED TRADE IN THE EAST. TYPICALLY, HE SAYS, THOSE GOODS HAVE BEEN PRODUCED BY NEW FIRMS, RATHER THAN LARGE STATE ENTERPRISES, WHETHER OR NOT THEY HAVE BEEN PRIVATIZED.

WHAT HAPPENED IN RECENT YEARS IS THAT, ON THE BASIS OF THIS OVERALL EXPORT-LED GROWTH, THERE HAVE BEEN NEW CONNECTIONS MADE AMONG THE FORMER SOCIALIST COUNTRIES, BUT TYPICALLY IN NEW INDUSTRIES, NOT SIMPLY RECREATING OLD LINKAGES BUT FINDING NEW LINKAGES IN THE EAST. AND THAT CERTAINLY IS A GOOD THING. BUT THAT'S NOT THE MAIN PART OF THE TRADE STORY, WHICH REMAINS THE SHIFT TO WESTERN EUROPEAN MARKETS. HUNGARY, FOR EXAMPLE, SELLS 70 PERCENT OF ITS EXPORTS TO THE WEST. IN 1996, ITS EXPORTS TO ITS EASTERN NEIGHBORS INCREASED BY 52 PERCENT, COMPARED TO JUST 2 PERCENT FOR THE WEST. 1997 SAW CONTINUED PROGRESS IN POLAND, HUNGARY, AND -- WITH SOME PRESUMABLY TEMPORARY DIFFICULTIES -- IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC. BUT PROFESSOR SACHS SAYS THE YEAR BROUGHT MAJOR BREAKTHROUGHS IN ROMANIA AND BULGARIA.

THOSE COUNTRIES UNFORTUNATELY LAGGED SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THEIR MORE WESTERN NEIGHBORS IN THE REFORM PROCESS. AND INDEED, BOTH COUNTRIES HIT THE SKIDS LAST YEAR (IN 1996) UNDER STILL LEFT-OVER GOVERNMENTS THAT WERE SUCCESSOR PARTIES OF THE COMMUNIST PARTIES THEMSELVES. FINALLY, REAL POLITICAL CHANGE TOOK PLACE THIS YEAR (IN 1997) IN BOTH ROMANIA AND BULGARIA TOWARD CENTRIST PARTIES WITH STRONG POPULAR SUPPORT, AND THAT'S GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A REAL JUMP AHEAD IN THE MARKET REFORMS IN BOTH OF THESE COUNTRIES.

PROFESSOR SIMON JOHNSON SAYS THAT COMPETITION WITH WESTERN COUNTRIES HAS BROUGHT ABOUT THE IMPROVED QUALITY IN EXPORTS, AND THAT, IN TURN, HAS ATTRACTED HEAVY WESTERN INVESTMENT.

THE ONE BIG LESSON WHICH WE HAVE TO TAKE FROM THE LAST FEW YEARS IS THAT RESTRUCTURING WITHIN A COUNTRY, SUCH AS POLAND OR HUNGARY OR THE CZECH REPUBLIC, IS VERY MUCH LINKED TO, AND COMPLEMENTARY WITH, ENCOUNTERING COMPETITION IN OUTSIDE MARKETS. WESTERN INVESTMENT HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN THE LEADING THREE COUNTRIES. PARTICULARLY IN THE LAST YEAR WE'VE BEGUN TO SEE A HUGE SURGE IN POLAND, WHICH IS NOW BY FAR THE MOST RESTRUCTURED AND MOST RAPIDLY GROWING EAST EUROPEAN ECONOMY.

PROFESSORS JOHNSON AND SACHS BOTH SAY THAT THE COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION HAVE HAD FAR LESS SUCCESS IN THEIR REFORM EFFORTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THREE BALTIC REPUBLICS. RUSSIA IS CURRENTLY DEALING WITH A FINANCIAL CRISIS BROUGHT ON IN PART BY THE FALLOUT OF THE FINANCIAL TURMOIL IN EAST ASIA. THEY AGREE THAT PROGRESS IN OTHER REPUBLICS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT HAPPENS IN RUSSIA. (SIGNED)
NEB/FR/RRM
19-Dec-97 9:23 AM EST (1423 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[13] YEARENDER: NATO ENLARGEMENT '97 BY ANDRE DE NESNERA (LONDON)

INTRO: THIS HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A HISTORIC YEAR FOR NATO. AS THE COLD WAR RECEDES INTO MEMORY, MANY COUNTRIES PART OF THE SOVIET BLOC NOW WANT TO BECOME NATO MEMBERS. AND AS V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ANDRE DE NESNERA REPORTS FROM LONDON, 1997 SAW THE NATO MILITARY ALLIANCE EXPANDING EASTWARD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ITS HISTORY.

TEXT: AT THE JULY NATO SUMMIT IN MADRID, THREE FORMER WARSAW PACT NATIONS WERE INVITED TO BEGIN NEGOTIATIONS LEADING TO FULL ALLIANCE MEMBERSHIP BY 1999.

OFFICIALLY THERE WERE 12 CANDIDATES VYING TO BE PART OF NATO'S HISTORIC EASTWARD EXPANSION. BUT IN THE END, ONLY THREE WERE CHOSEN -- POLAND, HUNGARY, AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC. THEY WERE DEEMED TO LIVE UP TO NATO'S MEMBERSHIP CRITERIA WHICH INCLUDES RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS, DEMOCRATIC SYSTEMS OF GOVERNMENT, AND AN ARMED FORCE UNDER POLITICAL CONTROL.

SENIOR NATO SPOKESMAN JAMIE SHEA SAYS THIS INITIAL INVITATION DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF THE EXPANSION PROCESS.

IN 1999, WE PLAN TO HAVE ANOTHER SUMMIT WHEN WE WILL OBVIOUSLY REVIEW HOW SUCCESSFUL THIS ENLARGEMENT HAS BEEN AND THEN WE WILL LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ENLARGING IN THE FUTURE. BUT IT IS REALLY TOO EARLY TO MAKE ANY PREDICTIONS ABOUT THAT YET, BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY, WE ARE TAKING IN NOW THREE COUNTRIES -- THAT IN ITSELF IS GOING TO BE THE LARGEST ENLARGEMENT IN NATO HISTORY -- AND IT WILL OBVIOUSLY TAKE US AWHILE TO ABSORB THESE COUNTRIES, TO WORK OUT HOW THIS ENLARGED NATO IS GOING TO FUNCTION. SO WE NEED TO HAVE SOME EXPERIENCE WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF ENLARGEMENT BEFORE WE CAN CONTEMPLATE THE SECOND ROUND.

IN THE MEANTIME, THE ARMED FORCES OF THE THREE FORMER WARSAW PACT NATIONS MUST COME UP TO NATO STANDARDS. OR AS MR. SHEA PUTS IT, THEY MUST BE "INTEGRATED" INTO THE ALLIANCE.

THE THREE COUNTRIES HAVE ALL SAID THEY ARE WILLING TO DECLARE INITIALLY 90 PERCENT OF THEIR FORCES TO NATO AND PLACE THOSE FORCES UNDER THE COMMAND OF "SACEUR" -- THE SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER. IN A CRISIS SITUATION, THOSE FORCES WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR PLANNING AND THEY ARE WORKING -- I MUST SAY -- VERY ENERGETICALLY TO UPGRADE THOSE FORCES, PARTICULARLY IN TERMS OF ACHIEVING INTEROPERABILITY WITH NATO, TEACHING THEM ENGLISH, TEACHING THEM NATO'S PROCEDURES, PUTTING MORE OF THEM INTO NATO EXERCISES, SENDING MORE OF THEIR OFFICERS TO NATO MILITARY ACADEMIES FOR TRAINING. AND THEY ARE EVEN PREPARED, IN OBVIOUSLY DIFFICULT ECONOMIC TIMES, TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THEIR DEFENSE BUDGETS TO ASSIST THIS WORK.

ACCORDING TO THE SENIOR NATO SPOKESMAN, THE THREE COUNTRIES ARE SHOWING THEY WANT TO BE PROVIDERS OF SECURITY AND NOT MERELY CONSUMERS OF SECURITY.

THE SENIOR ANALYST FOR THE BRITISH PUBLICATION "JANE'S DEFENSE WEEKLY" -- PAUL BEAVER -- SAYS POLAND, THE CZECH REPUBLIC, AND HUNGARY ARE INDEED WORKING HARD TO MEET NATO STANDARDS.

THE PROBLEM IS FOR ALL OF THESE COUNTRIES, OF COURSE, IS THAT THEY HAVE HAD SUCH A WESTWARD TILT IN THEIR TIME IN THE WARSAW PACT THAT ALL THE FACILITIES ARE IN THE WEST OF THE COUNTRIES FACING GERMANY OR FACING NATO. SO THERE ARE SOME THINGS THAT HAVE TO BE DONE THERE. BUT THEY ARE WORKING ON IT AND THEY ARE DOING IT. I DO NOT THINK ANY ONE OF THEM IS COMPLACENT. THERE SEEMS TO BE A FEELING AMONGST PARTICULARLY THOSE PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT BEEN TO THE COUNTRIES RECENTLY THAT THEY ARE COMPLACENT. THEY ARE NOT. THEY ARE WORKING PRETTY HARD ON GETTING THERE BECAUSE IT IS THE DREAM. AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE PLEBISCITES THEY HAVE BEEN HAVING, IT IS THE DREAM OF THE PEOPLE, NOT JUST THE POLITICIANS.

NATO'S EXPANSION EASTWARDS HAS BEEN STRONGLY OPPOSED BY RUSSIA. IN AN EFFORT TO GET RUSSIA MORE INVOLVED IN NATO AFFAIRS, THE WESTERN ALLIANCE AND MOSCOW SIGNED A CHARTER EARLIER THIS PAST YEAR OUTLINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO. THERE IS NOW A PERMANENT RUSSIAN PRESENCE AT NATO HEADQUARTERS AND SPOKESMAN SHEA SAYS THAT DURING THE PAST FEW MONTHS, THE CONTACTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING.

FOR EXAMPLE, WE HAVE APPROVED A WORK PROGRAM OF PRACTICAL ACTIVITIES. WE HAVE SET UP EXPERT GROUPS WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEEN PRODUCING RESULTS IN DISASTER RELIEF, PEACEKEEPING. THERE IS EVEN ONE NOW ON NUCLEAR ISSUES WHICH, OF COURSE, ARE OF MAJOR CONCERN TO BOTH SIDES. AND ONE AREA WHICH WAS LAGGING A LITTLE BIT FOR AWHILE WAS THAT OF MILITARY-TO-MILITARY CONTACTS. I HAVE THE FEELING AT THE MOMENT THAT THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE. WE ARE GETTING INVOLVED IN MORE AND MORE SUBSTANTIVE WORK, PARTICULARLY AT THE GRASSROOTS MILITARY-TO-MILITARY LEVEL, WHERE I THINK THE REAL PERMANENT GLUE BINDING NATO AND RUSSIA TOGETHER WILL BE SITUATED.

HOWEVER MR. SHEA SAYS RUSSIA CONTINUES TO BE OPPOSED TO NATO'S EASTWARD EXPANSION.

DEFENSE ANALYST PAUL BEAVER SAYS WITH THE END OF THE COLD WAR AND THE COLLAPSE OF COMMUNISM, RUSSIA IS NO LONGER PERCEIVED AS A MILITARY THREAT TO THE WEST.

THE THREAT PERCEPTIONS NOW, LOOKING AT RUSSIA, SAY THE RUSSIANS DO NOT POSE A THREAT TO NATO/EUROPE IN THE NEXT TEN TO 15 YEARS. EVEN NOW, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A MAJOR CHANGE STARTING IN JANUARY FOR NATO TO BECOME CONCERNED THAT THERE WAS A THREAT. THE DIFFERENCE IS IF UKRAINE JOINED WITH RUSSIA AND MADE THAT CHANGE. THAT IS WHEN NATO WOULD BEGIN TO BE VERY CONCERNED AGAIN.

MR. BEAVER SAYS WESTERN NATIONS ARE TRYING TO SUPPORT UKRAINE'S ASPIRATIONS TOWARDS INDEPENDENCE FROM THE RUSSIAN SYSTEM -- AND THAT IS WHY EARLIER THIS YEAR, NATO SIGNED AN ACCORD WITH UKRAINE AN AGREEMENT SIMILAR TO THE ONE WITH RUSSIA.

AS THE NATO ALLIANCE MOVES TOWARDS THE 21ST CENTURY, EXPERTS SAY IT WILL INEVITABLY CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD EXPANSION AS FORMER WARSAW PACT COUNTRIES SEE MEMBERSHIP AS A FIRST STEP TOWARDS FULL EUROPEAN INTEGRATION. (SIGNED)
NEB/ADEN/JWH
19-Dec-97 8:43 AM EST (1343 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[14] YEARENDER: OUTLOOK FOR FORMER SOVIET UNION BY FRANK RONALDS (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: 1997 HAS BEEN A BANNER YEAR FOR THE COUNTRIES OF EAST AND CENTRAL EUROPE. THE EUROPEAN UNION HAS INVITED THE MOST SUCCESSFUL OF THEM TO START NEGOTIATIONS ABOUT JOINING THE UNION. ALSO, VOTERS IN ROMANIA AND BULGARIA ELECTED CENTRISTS BENT ON MARKET REFORM. BUT COUNTRIES OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THREE BALTIC STATES, HAVE NOT BEEN SO SUCCESSFUL. HERE IS FRANK RONALDS:

TEXT: FOLLOWING INDEPENDENCE IN 1989, THE COUNTRIES OF EAST AND CENTRAL EUROPE REORIENTED THEIR TRADE TOWARD THE WEST. COMPETITION WITH OUTSIDE MARKETS, AND WESTERN INVESTMENT, BROUGHT RESTRUCTURING OF THEIR ECONOMIES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW INDUSTRIES. ACCORDING TO PROFESSOR SIMON JOHNSON, EFFORTS AT REFORM FURTHER TO THE EAST HAVE BEEN FAR LESS SUCCESSFUL.

IF YOU LOOK AT RUSSIA AND UKRAINE, UNFORTUNATELY, MOST OF THE GOODS THAT THEY ARE TRADING ARE TRADITIONAL -- MEANING THEY EXISITED BEFORE 1991. THERE HASN'T BEEN A LOT OF RESTRUCTURING; THERE HASN'T BEEN A LOT OF INVESTMENT IN NEW PRODUCTION LINES. FOREIGN INVESTORS WHO HAVE TRIED TO COME IN AND MAKE THESE KINDS OF INVESTMENTS HAVE, WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS, BEEN FRUSTRATED. SO RUSSIA'S TRADE REMAINS DOMINATED BY ENERGY AND MILITARY PRODUCTION, MEANING WEAPONS SYSTEMS OF VARIOUS KINDS, AND OBVIOUSLY THESE ARE TRADITIONALLY THEIR MOST IMPORTANT EXPORTS.

I WOULD BRING IN HERE A TOPIC WHICH I THINK IS GENERALLY OVERLOOKED: NAMELY GRASS-ROOTS, LOW-LEVEL ECONOMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN ORDINARY PEOPLE, THOUSANDS OF ORDINARY PEOPLE, LIVING ESPECIALLY IN THE BORDERING REGIONS. I THINK HERE WE HAVE AN INTERESTING QUESTION: WHETHER THE IMPACT OF WHAT UKRAINIANS SEE IN POLAND WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME KIND OF POLITICAL FORCE IN UKRAINE.

THE OTHER REPUBLICS OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION HAVE HAD EVEN GREATER DIFFICULTIES THAN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE. PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS, DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS AT HARVARD UNIVERSITY, SAYS THAT THE THREE BALTIC STATES ARE AN EXCEPTION -- BECAUSE OF THEIR CLOSENESS TO SCANDANAVIA AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO TACKLE MARKET REFORMS.

THEN OF COURSE YOU HAVE THE DIFFICULT REGIONS OF THE CAUCASUS -- SUCH AS GEORGIA, AZERBAIJAN, ARMENIA, AND YOU HAVE THE PARTS OF CENTRAL ASIA -- UZBEKISTAN, KIRGHIZHSTAN, KAZAKHSTAN, TAJIKISTAN, TURMENISTAN -- WHICH ARE IN BOTH CASES FAR FROM THE MAIN MARKETS OF THE WORLD, FACING OFTEN TREMENDOUS PROBLEMS OF TRANSPORT, OFTEN FACING WAR OR INTER-ETHNIC RIVALRIES. TO THE EXTENT THAT THERE'S BEEN PROGRESS, IT'S COME THROUGH EXPLOITING THE NATURAL RESOURCE RICHNESS OF THE REGION, MAINLY HYDROCARBONS.

PROFESSOR SACHS SAYS THAT RUSSIA HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS, ESPECIALLY IN OVERCOMING INFLATION, WHICH HELD THE ECONOMY BACK FOR SEVERAL YEARS. RIGHT NOW IT IS SUFFERING FROM A CRISIS CAUSED IN PART BY THE FALLOUT OF THE FINANCIAL TURMOIL IN EAST ASIA. IT APPEARS THAT THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND AND THE WORLD BANK WILL OFFER SOME HELP. BUT PROFESSOR SACHS SAYS THAT SUCH HELP WILL NOT SOLVE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS.

THE HELP FROM THE I-M-F AND THE WORLD BANK IS ESSENTIAL AT THIS POINT, JUST NURSING RUSSIA ALONG SO THAT IT DOESN'T HAVE A FINANCIAL CRASH. RUSSIA REALLY NEEDS A VASTLY IMPROVED AND MORE REALISTIC BUDGET AND A NEW TAX CODE, AND NEW TAX ADMINISTRATION. IT'S HARD TO PREDICT WHETHER IT WILL COME INTO PLACE. BECAUSE THERE'S A NEED FOR IT, THERE'S NO GUARANTEE THAT IT'S ACTUALLY GOING TO HAPPEN. (BEGIN OPT) THE SHAME ABOUT RUSSIA IS THAT BETWEEN 1994 AND 1996, TENS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF NATURAL RESOURCE WEALTH THAT REALLY COULD HAVE BEEN USED TO HELP STABILIZE THE BUDGET, IF THESE RESOURCE ENTERPRISES HAD BEEN PROPERLY AND TRANSPARENTLY AUCTIONED TO INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS, WERE INSTEAD GIVEN AWAY, UNDER THE TABLE, TO POWERFUL INSIDER INTERESTS WITH GOOD POLITICAL CONNECTIONS. RUSSIA LOST A REAL OPPORTUNITY, IN MY OPINION, FOR FISCAL REFORM THAT COULD HAVE TAKEN PLACE IN PART ON THE BASIS OF THIS NATURAL RESOURCE WEALTH. (END OPT)

SIMON JOHNSON, OF THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, BELIEVES THAT THE FUTURE OF MOST OF THE REPUBLICS OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS IN RUSSIA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

IF RUSSIA FIXES ITS BUDGET OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS, THEN YOU WILL GET STABILITY, YOU WILL GET A RESUMPTION OF INVESTMENTS AND YOU WILL GET MODERATE GROWTH IN RUSSIA AND THE COUNTRIES LINKED TO RUSSIA. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS THAT RUSSIA DOESN'T FIX ITS BUDGET, DOESN'T GROW, AND THE OTHER COUNTRIES IN THAT REGION DON'T GROW. I THINK RUSSIA HERSELF WILL REMAIN STABLE, BUT THE SMALLER COUNTRIES AROUND RUSSIA WOULD HAVE REAL POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED CRISIS -- CIVIL WAR AND SO ON, AS WE'VE SEEN IN THE RECENT PAST. RUSSIA WILL NOT HAVE A SPECTULAR COLLAPSE, PROVIDING IT GETS A SENSIBLE TRADING ARRANGEMENT AND REASONABLE FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM THE WEST.

BOTH PROFESSOR JOHNSON AND PROFESSOR SACHS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE COUNTRIES OF EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE WILL IMPROVE THEIR ECONOMIES AND STRENGTHEN THEIR DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL SYSTEMS. BUT THEY ARE NOT READY TO PREDICT WHAT THE FUTURE WILL BRING FOR THE REPUBLICS OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION. (SIGNED)
NEB/FR/RRM
19-Dec-97 9:20 AM EST (1420 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[15] YUGO WAR CRIMES (L-ONLY) BY GILLIAN SHARPE (THE HAGUE)

INTRO: JUDGES AT THE U-N YUGOSLAV WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL HAVE WITHDRAWN CHARGES AGAINST THREE BOSNIAN CROATS WHO WERE ACCUSED OF WAR CRIMES. GILLIAN SHARPE IN THE HAGUE REPORTS THE MOVE COMES IN RESPONSE TO A REQUEST FROM THE PROSECUTION.

TEXT: AFTER TWO MONTHS IN PRISON, MARINKO KATAVA WAS FIRST OF THE THREE TO HEAR THE JUDGES ORDER HIS RELEASE. HE HAD BEEN ACCUSED IN CONNECTION WITH THE 1993 MASSACRE OF MORE THAN 100 MUSLIM CIVILIANS IN THE CENTRAL BOSNIAN VILLAGE OF AHMICI. HE AND TWO OTHERS, IVAN SANTIC AND PERO SKOPLAK, WERE AMONG 10 BOSNIAN CROATS WHO SURRENDERED TO THE TRIBUNAL IN OCTOBER.

PROSECUTORS SAY THEY ARE NOW SATISFIED THAT MR. KATAVA HAS AN ALIBI, A FACT THAT CAME TO LIGHT DURING ANOTHER TRIAL. THEY SAY CHARGES AGAINST THE TWO OTHER MEN CANNOT BE PROVED BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT.

MR. KATAVA HELD HIS HEAD IN HIS HANDS AND APPEARED TO BE CRYING AS THE RULING WAS MADE. PRESIDING JUDGE ANTONIO CASESSE SAID HE WAS PUZZLED AS TO WHY IT HAD TAKEN THE PROSECUTION SO LONG TO ACT, AND HE SAID HOPED THAT THIS WOULD NOT HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE.

WE CONSIDER IT TO BE IN THE INTERESTS OF JUSTICE TO RESTORE MARINKO KATAVA'S RIGHT TO LIBERTY WITHOUT DELAY. NOW FOR THIS REASON, ACTING UNDER RULE 51 OF THE RULES OF PROCEDURE AND EVIDENCE, WE GRANT LEAVE FOR THE INDICTMENT AGAINST MARINKO KATAVA TO BE WITHDRAWN. WE ORDER THE IMMEDIATE RELEASE OF MARINKO KATAVA FROM THE UNITED NATIONS DETENTION UNIT, SUBJECT TO THE PRACTICAL ARRANGEMENTS TO BE MADE WITH THE DUTCH AUTHORITIES

THE COURT ORDERED THE RELEASE OF THE OTHER TWO A SHORT TIME LATER.

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT CHARGES HAVE BEEN DROPPED IN THIS WAY AND IT IS EMBARRASSING FOR THE TRIBUNAL. BUT THESE DEVELOPMENTS ADD FUEL TO PROSECUTORS' ARGUMENTS THAT WAR CRIMES SUSPECTS CAN EXPECT FAIR TREATMENT HERE.

EARLIER IN THE DAY, ANOTHER BOSNIAN CROAT, WHO HAD BEEN ARRESTED BY NATO EARLY THURSDAY, PLEADED NOT GUILTY TO THE CHARGES AGAINST HIM.

THE SUSPECT, ANTO FURUNDZIJA, IS ACCUSED OF HAVING BEEN COMMANDER OF A SPECIAL FORCES UNIT OPERATING WITHIN THE BOSNIAN CROAT ARMY. THE SPECIFIC CHARGE AGAINST HIM IS THAT HE STOOD BY AND DID NOTHING AS A SOLDIER UNDER HIS COMMAND RAPED A WOMAN PRISONER. IT COULD BE SEVERAL MONTHS BEFORE HIS CASE COMES TO TRIAL. (SIGNED)
NEB/GS/JWH/RRM
19-Dec-97 2:11 PM EST (1911 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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