Voice of America, 97-06-22

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] DENVER SUMMIT ENDS (L) BY DAVID GOLLUST (DENVER)

[02] NAGORNO KARABAKH / INTERNATIONAL LAW BY ABOLFAZL BAHADORI (WASHINGTON)

[03] POLANND/NATO (L/S) BY ART CHIMES (PRAGUE)

[04] SUMMIT/BOSNIA (S-ONLY) BY DAVID GOLLUST (DENVER)

[05] SUMMIT-RUSSIA-BOSNIA (L) BY RON PEMSTEIN (DENVER)

[06] TURKEY POLITICS BY AL PESSIN (ANKARA)

[01] DENVER SUMMIT ENDS (L) BY DAVID GOLLUST (DENVER)

INTRO: THE SUMMIT OF THE LEADING INDUSTRIAL POWERS AND RUSSIA HAS COME TO AND END IN DENVER, COLORADO WITH ISSUANCE OF A WIDE-RANGING POLITICAL COMMUNIQUE. THE EIGHT LEADERS ARE URGING CHINA TO ALLOW FREE ELECTIONS IN HONG KONG AFTER ITS ASSUMPTION OF CONTROL THERE AT THE END OF THIS MONTH. VOA'S DAVID GOLLUST HAS DETAILS.

TEXT: THE SUMMIT PARTICIPANTS HAVE WELCOMED THE IMMINENT TRANSFER OF HONG KONG TO CHINESE CONTROL, BUT ALSO SAY THEY, QUOTE, "LOOK FORWARD," TO DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS THERE FOR A NEW LEGISLATURE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

IN A LENGTHY PASSAGE ON HONG KONG IN THEIR FINAL COMMUNIQUE, THE LEADERS SAID THEY WELCOME AND PLACE WEIGHT ON CHINA'S COMMITMENTS UNDER ITS 1984 JOINT DECLARATION WITH BRITAIN AND ITS 1990 BASIC LAW AGREEMENT TO PRESERVE HONG KONG'S WAY OF LIFE AND AUTONOMY.

APPEARING ALONGSIDE THE SEVEN OTHER LEADERS AT A SUMMIT CLOSING CEREMONY, PRESIDENT CLINTON SAID HONG KONG IS AN ISSUE OF CRITICAL IMPORTANCE TO THE SUMMIT PARTNERS:

NEXT WEEK WILL REPRESENT A HISTORIC MOMENT AS HONG KONG RETURNS TO CHINESE SOVEREIGNTY. WE REAFFIRMED OUR STRONG INTEREST IN HONG KONG'S FURTURE AND OUR SHARED CONVICTION ON THE IMPORTANCE OF CHINA'S ADHERENCE TO ITS COMMITMENTS UNDER THE 1984 AGREEMENT. WE APPRECIATE, IN PARTICULAR, THE DEVOTION THAT (BRITISH) PRIME MINISTER BLAIR AND HIS GOVERNMENT ATTACH TO THIS ENDEAVOR.

IT ALSO CALLS FOR NEW MOMENTUM IN THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN PEACE PROCESS, AND SAYS BOTH SIDES MUST REFRAIN FROM ACTIONS THAT IMPEDE NEGOTIATIONS BY PRE-EMPTING THE SO-CALLED FINAL STATUS NEGOTIATIONS ON SUCH ISSUES AS PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD AND THE FUTURE OF JERUSALEM.

THE SUMMIT NATIONS ALSO NOTED WITH INTEREST THE RESULTS OF THE RECENT IRANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WON BY THE RELATIVELY-MODERATE MUSLIM CLERIC MOHAMMED KHATEMI AND URGED IRAN TO PLAY A CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE IN WORLD AFFAIRS.

IN LANGUAGE LARGELY REFLECTING U-S CONDITIONS FOR DIALOGUE WITH TEHRAN, IT URGES IRAN TO STOP SUPPORTING MIDDLE EAST EXTREMISTS AND TO RENOUNCE TERRORISM, INCLUDING ATTACKS ON IRANIAN EXILES ABROAD.

IN A SEPARATE STATEMENT, THE SUMMIT PARTNERS WARN THE BOSNIAN PARTIES THEY CAN EXPECT A CUTOFF OF OUTSIDE AID UNLESS THEY FULFILL THE CIVILIAN ELEMENTS OF THE DAYTON ACCORDS. AND THEY ENDORSED A JAPANESE INITIATIVE -- BACKED BY FRANCE -- TO SEND ENVOYS TO CAMBODIA TO TRY TO DEFUSE THE DETERIORATING POLITICAL SITUATION THERE.

THE SUMMIT COMMUNIQUE ALSO DEALS WITH SEVERAL POST-COLD-WAR SOCIAL ISSUES. AMONG OTHER THINGS, IT URGES A WORLD-WIDE BAN ON HUMAN CLONING AND SAID THE COUNTRIES WILL ACCELLERATE EFFORTS TO DEVELOP A VACCINE AGAINST THE H-I-V VIRUS, WHICH CAUSES AIDS. (SIGNED)
NEB/DAG/EH
22-Jun-97 4:26 PM EDT (2026 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] NAGORNO KARABAKH / INTERNATIONAL LAW BY ABOLFAZL BAHADORI (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: THE NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT IS AN EXAMPLE OF AN ETHNIC CONFLICT IN WHICH THE RIGHT OF SELF DETERMINATION FOR ONE NATION CLASHES WITH THE RIGHT OF SOVEREIGNTY OF ANOTHER. ABOLFAZL BAHADORI REPORTS ON A RECENT (JUNE 10) ONE-DAY WORKSHOP IN BAKU WHERE INTERNATIONAL EXPERTS ON CONFLICT DISCUSSED SUCH ISSUES.

TEXT: THE BAKU BRANCH OF THE HELSINKI CITIZENS ASSEMBLY RECENTLY ORGANIZED A WORKSHOP AT WHICH DELEGATES FROM DIFFERENT COUNTRIES DISCUSSED PEACEFUL WAYS OF ENDING ETHNIC CONFLICTS. THE WORKSHOP DEVOTED PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO NAGORNO KARABAKH.

ONE OF THE PARTICIPANTS WAS KARL JACOBSON, A PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL LAW FROM NORWAY WHO HAS BEEN INVOLVED IN MANY GLOBAL NEGOTIATIONS IN THE PAST. HE CAME TO BAKU AFTER A SIMILAR WORKSHOP IN YEREVAN.

I HAVE HEARD SOME OF THE PEOPLE IN THIS ROOM TODAY TALK ABOUT NAGORNO KARABAKH, OF COURSE AS PART OF AZERBAIJAN. THAT IS INTERNATIONAL LAW. YESTERDAY IN YEREVAN I WAS TOLD THAT NAGORNO KARABAKH OF COURSE CAN LEAVE AZERBAIJAN BECAUSE THE RIGHT TO SELF DETERMINATION IS ALSO AN INTERNATIONAL LAW. PROCLAMATIONS CONCERNING INTERNATIONAL LAW ARE EXCUSES NOT TO SEEK A SOLUTION. THE FACT IS THAT THERE IS NO ABSOLUTE INTERNATIONAL LAW. INTERNATIONAL LAW IS WHAT EVER THE DOMINANT POWER OR POWERS WISHES IT TO BE!

PROFESSOR JACOBSON SAYS THAT IN 1991, WHEN THE UNITED STATES RECOGNIZED CROATIA AND SLOVENIA AS INDEPENDENT COUNTRIES, THIS REPRESENTED A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN POLICY FOR THE UNITED STATES WHICH HAD STRONGLY OPPOSED ANY AND DIVISION OF OTHER NATIONS SINCE ITS OWN CIVIL WAR.

BUT THIS NEW APPROACH HAS NOT BEEN APPLIED IN EVERY CASE. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, WHICH RECOGNIZED THE NEWLY INDEPENDENT REPUBLICS OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION AND FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, REFUSED TO SUPPORT INDEPENDENCE FOR MINORITIES WITHIN THOSE REPUBLICS. HOWEVER, IN THE CASE OF CANADA VERSUS QUEBEC, THE PROFESSOR SAID, THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SEEMS TO BE ACCEPTING THE RIGHT OF SELF DETERMINATION FOR QUEBEC -- AS WELL AS THE NON-FRENCH MINORITIES WITHIN QUEBEC.

FIRST CANADA SAYS IF CANADA IS DIVISIBLE, SO IS QUEBEC AND THIS POSITION WHICH WAS NOT THE POSITION IN 1991, SUDDENLY IS SUPPORTED BY UNITED STATES, FRANCE, BRITAIN, GERMANY AND ALL THE OTHER COUNTRIES WHO REFUSED TO GIVE THE SAME RIGHT TO SERBS (WITHIN CROATIA). BY THIS ANALOGY, OF COURSE, TODAY'S INTERPRETATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL LAW WOULD GIVE NAGORNO KARABAKH ARMENIANS THE SAME RIGHT TO SECEDE AS THE RIGHT GIVEN TO AZERBAIJAN TO SECEDE FROM USSR.

PROFESSOR KARL JACOBSON SAYS THAT IN MOST OF THE MINORITY WITHIN MINORITY CASES, ONE SIDE'S HISTORY IS ALWAYS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER SIDE. BUT MOST OF THE TIME BOTH VERSIONS ARE A MIXTURE OF FACT AND FICTION. WHAT IS IMPORTANT, HE SAYS, IS THAT BOTH SIDES REACH AN AGREEMENT BEFORE FIGHTING BEGINS. AFTER BLOOD IS SHED, THE PROFESSOR SAYS AGREEMENT BECOMES HARDER.

NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT, I THINK, COULD HAVE BEEN SOLVED MUCH EASIER A FEW YEARS AGO. ONCE WAR HAS OCCURRED, BLOOD HAS BEEN SPILLED, HORROR HAS BEEN SEEN AND REFUGEES HAVE FLED, EVERYTHING BECOMES MUCH MUCH MORE DIFFICULT. I THINK A SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE, BUT IT HAS TO BE A LONG TERM ONE AND IT HAS TO BE GRADUAL. AS I SAID THE SOLUTION DOES NOT LIE IN PROCLAMATIONS OF WHAT IS INTERNATIONAL LAW AND WHAT IS NOT. I RATHER ASK MYSELF WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT FOR AZERBAIJAN? IS IT REALLY TO HAVE TOTAL CONTROL INSIDE NAGORNO KARABAKH, OR IS IT TO HAVE THE FORMAL RECOGNITION THAT KARABAKH IS PART OF AZERBAIJAN? IF IT IS THE FIRST, THEN NO SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE. IF IT IS THE SECOND, THEN A SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE. SECONDLY I ASK NAGORNO KARABAKH ARMENIANS WHAT IS CRUCIAL FOR THEM. IS IT REALLY TO BE FORMALLY PART OF ARMENIA OR IS IT JUST TO FEEL SAFE FROM THE PHOBIAS? AGAIN IF IT IS THE FIRST, A SOLUTION IS NOT POSSIBLE, BUT IF IT IS THE SECOND THEN A SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE.

PROFESSOR JACOBSON SUGGESTS A COMPROMISE IN WHICH ALL ARMED FORCES WOULD BE WITHDRAWN FROM ALL PARTS OF KARABAKH EXCEPT THE LACHIN CORRIDOR, WHERE ETHNIC ARMENIAN FORCES WOULD BE ALLOWED TO REMAIN, BUT THE CORRIDOR ITSELF WOULD OFFICIALLY BE RECOGNIZED A PART OF AZERBAIJAN. THIS COMPROMISE WOULD ADDRESS MOST OF THE SECURITY CONCERNS OF THE ARMENIAN AND AZERBAIJANI POPULATIONS. UNDER THE JACOBSON PROPOSAL, THOSE AZERIS WHO ARE NOW REFUGEES IN THEIR OWN LAND BECAUSE OF THE FIGHTING, WOULD BE ABLE TO RETURN TO THEIR HOMES, HOMES THAT ARE NOW OCCUPIED BY THE ARMENIAN FORCES.

TURNING TO REGIONAL ISSUES, THE PROFESSOR STRESSES THAT ANY EXPECTATIONS THAT THE UNITED STATES OR THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY WILL REPLACE RUSSIA, TURKEY AND IRAN AS A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE REGION ARE NOT REALISTIC.

SOME AZERIS, AS WELL AS SOME GEORGIANS AND SOME OTHERS BELIEVE THAT THERE ARE ALTERNATIVES TO RUSSIA, TURKEY AND IRAN. THEY BELIEVE THAT AMERICA CAN BECOME THE NEW SECURITY GUARANTOR. THAT IS AN "ALICE IN WONDERLAND" IDEA! AND THE FACT IS THAT UNITED STATES AND THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY WILL CERTAINLY WANT TO BE AN ECONOMIC PLAYER, BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THEY HAVE CONCEDED THAT THIS IS WITHIN THE RUSSIAN SPHERE OF ULTIMATE RESPONSIBILITY AND IF RUSSIA WAS NOT ABLE OR DID NOT WISH TO ADOPT THAT ROLE IT WOULD BE PASSED TO TURKEY OR IRAN. THEY (WEST) WILL NOT SEND MARINES TO BAKU. RECENTLY, THREE PARTICIPANTS OF THE SUMMIT OF EIGHT, THE UNITED STATES, RUSSIA AND FRANCE, UNVEILED A PLAN THAT CALLS FOR ARMENIA TO RECOGNIZE AZERBAIJAN'S TERRITORIAL CLAIM TO THE ARMENIAN-POPULATED ENCLAVE OF NAGORNO KARABAKH. IN RETURN, AZERBAIJAN WOULD GRANT NAGORNO KARABAKH BROAD INTERNAL AUTONOMY.
NEB/AB/KL
21-Jun-97 8:42 PM EDT (0042 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] POLANND/NATO (L/S) BY ART CHIMES (PRAGUE)

INTRO: AT THIS WEEK'S NATO WORKSHOP IN PRAGUE, POLAND'S PRESIDENT HAS URGED THE ALLIANCE TO ADAPT UNIFORM CRITERIA FOR PROSPECTIVE NEW NATO MEMBERS. V-O-A CORRESPONDENT ART CHIMES HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE MEETING AT PRAGUE CASTLE.

TEXT: POLISH PRESIDENT ALEKSANDER KWASNIEWSKI TOLD OFFICIALS FROM EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA NATO ENLARGEMENT SHOULD BE VIEWED AS A PROCESS WITH SEVERAL STAGES.

PRESIDENT KWASNIEWSKI'S COMMENTS FOLLOWED THOSE OF CZECH PRESIDENT VACLAV HAVEL WHO SATURDAY URGED NATO TO BRING IN NEW MEMBERS ON EQUAL TERMS, AND TO EXPLAIN WHY SOME PROSPECTIVE NEW MEMBERS ARE BEING ADMITTED BEFORE OTHERS.

POLAND IS EXPECTED TO BE INVITED TO JOIN NATO AT NEXT MONTH'S MADRID SUMMIT, ALONG WITH HUNGARY AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC. THE UNITED STATES OPPOSES FURTHER EXPANSION IN THIS FIRST ROUND, SO PROSPECTIVE MEMBERS, INCLUDING ROMANIA AND SLOVENIA, WILL HAVE TO WAIT.

MANY RESIDENTS IN PROSPECTIVE NEW NATO MEMBERS WONDER HOW THEIR FINANCIALLY-STRUGGLING GOVERNMENTS WILL PAY FOR THE MILITARY UPGRADES NEEDED TO MEET NATO STANDARDS. PRESIDENT KWASNIEWSKI POINTED OUT THAT POLAND'S MILITARY -- LIKE OTHERS IN THE EAST -- NEEDS MODERNIZATION ANYWAY, SUGGESTING THE COST OF NATO MEMBERSHIP MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS IT APPEARS.

SPEAKING UNDER A CONSTELLATION OF GILDED CHANDELIERS IN HISTORIC PRAGUE CASTLE, MR. KWASNIEWSKI EMPHASIZED MEMBERSHIP IN NATO DID NOT EXCLUDE RELATIONSHIPS OUTSIDE THAT FRAMEWORK.

EACH FORM OF REGIONAL CO-OPERATION IS NOT INSTEAD OF MEMBERSHIP IN NATO, FOR EXAMPLE, OR NOT INSTEAD OF MEMBERSHIP OF THESE COUNTRIES IN EUROPEAN UNION. EACH FORM OF REGIONAL CO-OPERATION IS ACCELERATING OUR WAY TO EUROPEAN STRUCTURES.

MONDAY'S SESSION OF THIS NATO WORKSHOP WILL BE OPENED BY ROMANIAN PRESIDENT EMIL CONSTANTINESCU. HE MAY USE THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE ONE LAST APPEAL FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP, WHICH AT THE MOMENT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY TO BE OFFERED THIS YEAR. (SIGNED)
NEB/ART/DW/RAE
22-Jun-97 9:27 AM EDT (1327 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] SUMMIT/BOSNIA (S-ONLY) BY DAVID GOLLUST (DENVER)

INTRO: THE EIGHT LEADERS AT THE DENVER SUMMIT HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT WARNING THE BOSNIAN PARTIES THEY FACE AN END OF OUTSIDE AID IF THEY FAIL TO IMPLEMENT OF ALL ASPECTS OF THE DAYTON ACCORDS. V-O-A'S DAVID GOLLUST REPORTS THERE IS ALSO A NEW CALL FOR THE HANDOVER OF INDICTED WAR CRIMES SUSPECTS.

TEXT: THE STATEMENT PUTS THE PARTIES ON NOTICE FURTHER AID FROM THE MAJOR POWERS WILL BE "CONTINGENT" ON THEIR FULFILLING THE LAGGING CIVILIAN ASPECTS OF THE DAYTON ACCORDS.

THE DOCUMENT ACCUSES SOME OFFICIALS OF -- HARMFULLY BLOCKING -- KEY ASPECTS OF ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION, AND THUS DELAYING INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE. IT CALLS ON THE BOSNIAN PARTIES AND THE GOVERNMENTS OF CROATIA AND SERBIA TO COOPERATE FULLY WITH THE WAR-CRIMES TRIBUNAL AT THE HAGUE AND TURN OVER INDICTED WAR-CRIMES SUSPECTS.

IT SAYS FULL ACCESS FOR THE PARTIES TO OUTSIDE AID AND INTEGRATION INTO INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS DEPENDS ON THEIR COOPERATION ON THE WAR CRIMES ISSUE.

PRESIDENT CLINTON CAME UNDER CRITICISM FROM SOME LEADERS HERE FOR HIS INSISTENCE U-S TROOPS LEAVE BOSNIA ON SCHEDULE NEXT YEAR. THE SUMMIT STATEMENT MADE NO MENTION OF THAT DEBATE -- SAYING ONLY THE LEADERS SUPPORT THE GOAL OF THE NATO-LED PEACEKEEPING FORCE TO PROVIDE A SECURE ENVIRONMENT IN BOSNIA BY JUNE OF NEXT YEAR. (SIGNED)
NEB/DAG/RAE
22-Jun-97 1:39 PM EDT (1739 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] SUMMIT-RUSSIA-BOSNIA (L) BY RON PEMSTEIN (DENVER)

INTRO: THE DENVER SUMMIT OF THE EIGHT HAS CONCLUDED BY PRAISING RUSSIA'S FULL PARTICIPATION AS ONE OF THE WORLD'S INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACIES. RON PEMSTEIN REPORTS FROM DENVER, THE LEADERS DISAGREED ON CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES BUT AVOIDED PUBLIC DISPUTES.

TEXT: THE EIGHT LEADERS, INCLUDING RUSSIA, AGREED TO WARN BOSNIA'S AUTHORITIES THAT THEY WILL LOSE ACCESS TO ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE IF THEY REFUSE TO LET REFUGEES RETURN TO THEIR HOMES. THEY ALSO AGREED TO WARN SERBIA AND CROATIA THEY MUST MAKE A STRONGER COMMITMENT TO THE BOSNIAN PEACE PROCESS, ESPECIALLY IN TURNING OVER INDICTED SUSPECTS TO THE WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE PRIVATE DISCUSSION HERE FOCUSSED ON THE AMERICAN DETERMINATION TO WITHDRAW AMERICAN TROOPS FROM THE BOSNIA STABILIZATION FORCE BY NEXT JUNE.

PRESIDENT CLINTON TOLD REPORTERS HE IS TRYING TO FOCUS ATTENTION ON THIS JUNE.

WHAT I URGED THE PARTIES TO DO AND WHAT OUR STATEMENT REFLECTS HERE IS OUR DETERMINATION TO SPEND THE NEXT YEAR TRYING TO IMPLEMENT THE DAYTON ACCORDS AND TAKING EACH OF THE SEVEN AREAS, THE ROUGHLY SEVEN AREAS OF ACTIVITY WHERE DAYTON IS CRITICAL TO PULLING THIS TOGETHER AND TRYING TO MAKE HEADWAY ON ALL FRONTS AND ESPECIALLY ON THE ECONOMIC FRONT, WE HAVE PLEDGED A LOT OF MONEY BUT WE NEED TO RELEASE THE MONEY AS SOON AS IT IS PLEDGED, IF THE PARTIES COMMIT TO DO WHAT THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO DO AND I'M CONVINCED THAT THIS WHOLE THING IS ALWAYS GOING TO BE A RACE AGAINST TIME AND HATRED AND LIMITATIONS TO TRY TO GET PEOPLE TO FEEL AND VISUALIZE THE BENEFITS OF PEACE AND LIVING TOGETHER.

MR. CLINTON SAYS HE EXPECTS THE EIGHT COUNTRIES HERE TO MAKE MORE ENERGETIC EFFORTS TO ENFORCE THE BOSNIA PEACE AGREEMENT IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. THEIR STATEMENT SIDESTEPS THE ISSUE OF WITHDRAWAL OF THE STABILIZATION FORCE SAYING ONLY THAT THE FORCE SHOULD PROVIDE A SECURE ENVIRONMENT BY JUNE, 1998.

ANOTHER DIFFERENCE THAT EMERGED BEHIND CLOSED DOORS IS NATO ENLARGEMENT. RUSSIA MAINTAINS ITS OPPOSITION TO ALLIANCE EXPANSION. THE LEADERS OF FRANCE AND ITALY TOLD PRESIDENT CLINTON THEY WANT ROMANIA AND SLOVENIA ADDED TO POLAND, HUNGARY AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC AS NATO'S NEW MEMBERS.

PRESIDENT CLINTON TELLS REPORTERS ROMANIA AND SLOVENIA ARE GOOD CANDIDATES FOR A SECOND ROUND BUT HE FAVORS INVITING JUST THREE AT THE NATO SUMMIT IN MADRID NEXT MONTH.

THERE IS NOT SO MUCH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN US ON WHERE WE THINK THIS WILL BE 10 YEARS FROM NOW AS THERE IS HOW WE SHOULD PROCEED NOW AND I'M HOPING WE CAN RESOLVE THESE THINGS. I'M CONFIDENT THAT OUR POSITION IS THE PRUDENT, THE DISCIPLINED AND THE RIGHT ONE FOR THIS MILITARY ALLIANCE AT THIS MOMENT BUT I DON'T THINK WE SHOULD IN ANYWAY DISCOURAGE OR DASH THE HOPES OF TWO COUNTRIES THAT ARE CLEARLY MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

AMERICAN OFFICIALS SAY NATO HAS A CONSENSUS ABOUT THREE COUNTRIES BUT NOT FOR MORE. THEY NOTE THAT BRITISH PRIME MINISTER TONY BLAIR PUBLICLY AGREES WITH THE UNITED STATES TO LIMIT THE NEW MEMBERS INVITED AT MADRID.

ANOTHER DIFFERENCE SURFACED PUBLICLY WHEN THE EUROPEAN UNION EXPRESSED DISAPPOINTMENT WITH THE SUMMIT'S LACK OF COMMITMENT TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY ANY SPECIFIC NUMBER. THE COMMUNIQUE CONTAINS ONLY A VAGUE PROMISE TO REDUCE EMISSIONS.

WHEN THE WORDS OF THE DENVER SUMMIT ARE FORGOTTEN, THE MAJOR CHANGE SEEN HERE WAS RUSSIA'S EMERGENCE AS A MAJOR PLAYER IN ALL POLITICAL DISCUSSIONS AND IN ALL BUT ONE ECONOMIC SESSION. PRESIDENT CLINTON EXPLAINS PRESIDENT YELTSIN'S ABSENCE AT THAT MEETING BY SAYING THE GROUP OF SEVEN HAVE ECONOMIC OBLIGATIONS--SUCH AS CLOSING UKRAINE'S CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR PLANT--THAT RUSSIA HAS NO PART IN.

AS THESE ECONOMIC SUMMITS CONTINUE, RUSSIA'S ROLE WILL GROW AND THE GROUP OF SEVEN'S FUNCTION WILL SHRINK. THAT DEVELOPMENT MEANS RUSSIA WILL JOIN JAPAN IN GIVING THE INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACIES A LARGER ASIAN VOICE. (SIGNED)
NEB/RP/EH
22-Jun-97 6:55 PM EDT (2255 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] TURKEY POLITICS BY AL PESSIN (ANKARA)

INTRO: AS TURKISH PREMIER-DESIGNATE MESUT YILMAZ BEGINS TRYING TO FORM A GOVERNMENT MONDAY, SOME POLITICIANS AND ANALYSTS ARE SAYING HE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO END TURKEY'S POLITICAL INSTABILITY OR THE FACTORS WHICH CREATE IT. FROM ANKARA, V-O-A CORRESPONDENT AL PESSIN REPORTS ON THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE POLITICAL SYSTEM IN THAT IMPORTANT REGIONAL AND NATO POWER.

TEXT: THE LAST TIME TURKISH VOTERS WENT TO THE POLLS A YEAR-AND-A-HALF AGO, THEY GAVE ABOUT 20-PERCENT OF THEIR SUPPORT TO EACH OF THREE PARTIES, AND THE REMAINDER TO SEVERAL SMALLER ONES. THE RESULT IS A FRACTURED PARLIAMENT, WITH RIVAL POLITICIANS FROM PHILOSOPHICALLY SIMILAR PARTIES UNWILLING TO WORK TOGETHER. THE RESULT WAS THE UNEASY ALLIANCE A YEAR AGO OF THE CENTER-RIGHT "TRUE PATH PARTY" AND THE ELECTION'S BIGGEST VOTE GETTER, "THE ISLAMIST WELFARE PARTY".

THAT GOVERNMENT FELL LAST WEDNESDAY AFTER THE DEFECTIONS OF SEVERAL TRUE-PATH MEMBERS. MR. YILMAZ IS HOPING FOR MORE SUCH DEFECTIONS -- HE NEEDS ABOUT NINE -- SO HE CAN GET ENOUGH VOTES IN PARLIAMENT FOR HIS EXPECTED NEW COALITION WITH TWO CENTER-LEFT PARTIES. ANALYSTS BELIEVE, AT BEST, HE WILL CREATE A NARROW, FRAGILE MAJORITY -- AT WORST, AFTER 45 DAYS HE WILL HAVE TO RETURN THE MANDATE TO THE PRESIDENT.

MANY ANALYSTS, INCLUDING VETERAN POLITICIAN KAMRAN INAN OF MR. YILMAZ'S CENTER-RIGHT "MOTHERLAND PARTY", BELIEVE THE MAIN THING TURKEY NEEDS IS A STRONG, BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT, UNITING THE FRACTIOUS CENTRISTS IN PARLIAMENT. BUT MR. INAN SAYS THAT IS NOT LIKELY.

WE DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH DEMOCRATIC CULTURE IN THIS COUNTRY AND WE ARE NOT USED TO THE COALITION GOVERNMENT SYSTEM, THAT ALWAYS GIVES PROBLEMS, CONFUSION AND CONFRONTATION. IN THIS COUNTRY WE DO NOT HAVE IN POLITICAL LIFE THE NOTION OF CONSENSUS, TO THE CONTRARY, WE HAVE RATHER A TENSION SYSTEM, QUARRELING WITH EACH OTHER.

MR. INAN SAYS TURKEY NEEDS A STRONG LEADER TO UNITE THE CENTRISTS, BUT HE SEES NO SUCH LEADER EMERGING.

THE WILD-CARD IN TURKISH POLITICS IS THE MILITARY. TURKEY HAS HAD THREE MILITARY COUPS IN THE PAST FOUR DECADES AT TIMES OF POLITICAL STRIFE. THE ARMY PLAYED A KEY ROLE IN PRESSURING THE ISLAMIST-LED GOVERNMENT TO RESIGN LAST WEEK.

MILITARY LEADERS SAYS THE WELFARE PARTY IS TRYING TO IMPOSE MORE ISLAMIC TRADITIONS ON TURKEY'S SECULAR SOCIETY. SENIOR GENERALS HAVE BEEN QUOTED AS SAYING THAT IS AS GREAT A THREAT TO THE COUNTRY AS THE KURDISH SEPARATIST MOVEMENT THEY HAVE BEEN FIGHTING FOR 13-YEARS.

BUT POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AHMET EVIN OF ANKARA'S BILKENT UNIVERSITY BELIEVES TALK OF A POSSIBLE MILITARY COUP EXAGGERATES THE SITUATION.

THE ARMY WILL NOT DO ANYTHING EXTRA-CONSTITUTIONAL. THIS IS A MISPERCEPTION THAT GOES AROUND. THE MILITARY IS EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO INTERVENE, AND MORE SO NOW THAN THE CASES IN THE PAST.

PROFESSOR EVIN SAYS THE ARMY IS WILLING TO USE THE POLITICAL SYSTEM TO HELP PUSH A GOVERNMENT OUT, AS IT DID LAST WEEK, BUT HE BELIEVES MORE-DIRECT MILITARY ACTION IS MUCH LESS LIKELY, AT LEAST FOR NOW.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT TURKEY IS UNDERGOING A PHASE THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE IMMOBILITY OF THE LATE SIXTIES AND LATE SEVENTIES. NOW, WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NOW AND THE EARLIER PHASES OF MILITARY INTERVENTION? ONE IS THAT I THINK THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WORKS AS A SAFETY VALVE TO BRING THE SECURITY CONCERNED OFFICERS TOGETHER WITH THE RELEVANT CABINET MEMBERS, THE PRIME MINISTER AND SO ON, AND THE PRESIDENT.

THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL SETS MAJOR POLICIES AND GIVES THE GENERALS A CHANCE TO HAVE INPUT WITHOUT TAKING OVER.

LEADING POLITICIANS HAVE SIGNALED WHOEVER LEADS TURKEY'S NEXT GOVERNMENT, IT WILL LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. EARLY ELECTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A YEAR AT MOST.

THERE IS MUCH SPECULATION ABOUT WHETHER THE FORMER RULING ISLAMIST PARTY WILL RECEIVE MORE OR LESS SUPPORT THAN IT DID IN THE LAST ELECTION. THAT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER IT IS IN OR OUT OF GOVERNMENT, AND WILL MAKE THE POTENTIAL FOR MILITARY INTERVENTION MORE OR LESS LIKELY.

BUT IT WILL NOT TELL THE WHOLE STORY BECAUSE THE CENTER-RIGHT AND CENTER-LEFT PARTIES WILL STILL LIKELY SPLIT THE TURKISH VOTE INTO MANY SMALL PIECES, CREATING A POLITICALLY WEAK GOVERNMENT FOR WHOEVER LEADS IT, AND CONTINUING CONCERNS FOR THE GENERALS.

FOR VETERAN POLITICIAN KAMRAN INAN, THE POLITICAL FUTURE IS BLEAK, BUT HE SAYS THAT IS ONLY PART OF THE PICTURE.

THE PRIVATE SECTOR IS THE LOCOMOTIVE OF THIS COUNTRY, AND ANKARA, WHETHER THERE IS A GOVERNMENT OR NOT THE COUNTRY IS GOING ON, VERY EXPLOSIVE, AGGRESSIVE, FULL OF POTENTIAL, AND EVEN IN SPITE OF US POLITICIANS.

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