Voice of America, 97-05-05

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] BIG TEN EMERGING MARKETS BY MAX RUSTON (NEW YORK)

[02] CENTRAL EUROPE CONFERENCE (L ONLY) BY JOE CHAPMAN (NEW YORK)

[03] EURO STOCKS (S ONLY) BY JACK HUIZENGA (LONDON)

[04] GREECE / TURKEY (L ONLY) BY ANTHEE CARASSAVA (ATHENS)

[05] IRAN / GERMANY (S ONLY) BY KYLE KING (BONN)

[06] IRAN UPDATE BY DEBORAH COOPER (WASHINGTON)

[07] MONDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[08] N-Y ECON WRAP (S & L) BY BRECK ARDERY (NEW YORK)

[09] TURKEY / AZERBAIJAN (L-O) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

[01] BIG TEN EMERGING MARKETS BY MAX RUSTON (NEW YORK)

INTRO: A FORMER SENIOR U-S TRADE OFFICIAL SAYS THE WORLD WILL SOON BE DOMINATED BY A SET OF RISING POWERS KNOWN AS THE BIG TEN EMERGING MARKETS, INCLUDING CHINA, INDIA, AND BRAZIL. AS V-O-A'S MAX RUSTON REPORTS FROM NEW YORK, THE FORMER OFFICIAL SAYS THE UNITED STATES IS UN-PREPARED FOR THIS FUTURE AND NEEDS TO CARRY OUT REFORMS OR RISK LOSING ITS ROLE AS THE WORLD'S DOMINANT ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL POWER.

TEXT: FORMER UNDERSECRETARY OF COMMERCE JEFFREY GARTEN OUTLINES HIS VIEW OF THE NEXT CENTURY IN HIS NEW BOOK CALLED "THE BIG TEN". THE TITLE REFERS TO 10 NATIONS HE PREDICTS WILL EMERGE AS POTENTIAL WORLD POWERS IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THEY INCLUDE THREE IN LATIN AMERICA -- MEXICO, BRAZIL, AND ARGENTINA -- AND FOUR IN ASIA -- INDIA, INDONESIA, CHINA, AND SOUTH KOREA, IN ADDITION TO TURKEY, POLAND, AND SOUTH AFRICA.

THEY REPRESENT AN HISTORICALLY UNPRECEDENTED PHENOMENON. THAT IS THE RISE OF SO MANY COUNTRIES AT ONE TIME. WE HAVE SEEN THE RISE OF TWO OR THREE ... GERMANY, JAPAN, EVEN THE UNITED STATES ... BUT NEVER SO MANY COUNTRIES IN SO MANY DIFFERENT REGIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY.

MR. GARTEN, NOW DEAN OF THE YALE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, SAYS THE EMERGENCE OF THESE MARKETS NOT ONLY THREATENS THE UNITED STATES' DOMINANCE IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS, BUT ALSO COULD POSE NEW CHALLENGES TO WORLD ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STABILITY. HE SAYS HE IS PARTICULARLY CONCERNED WITH HOW EACH OF THESE EMERGING MARKETS WILL COPE WITH THE OFTEN CONFLICTING DEMANDS FOR CHANGE IN THEIR POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS.

THE CLASH BETWEEN THE OPENINGS OF THE POLITICAL SYSTEMS AND THE ECONOMIC SYSTEMS IS IN MY VIEW A TREMENDOUS UNCERTAINTY. LONG TERM I THINK IT WILL WORK, BUT I DO NOT KNOW HOW LONG THE LONG TERM IS, AND I WOULD SAY THAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS WE ARE IN FOR SOME REAL VOLCANOES, AND THIS IS GOING TO BE A TREMENDOUS CHALLENGE TO U-S FOREIGN AND TRADE POLICY.

MR. GARTEN SINGLES OUT INDONESIA AS ONE OF THE MOST VOLATILE COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD IN THIS RESPECT. THE ECONOMIST POINTS OUT INDONESIA HAS THE FOURTH-LARGEST POPULATION IN THE WORLD AND ONE PERSON HAS RULED SINCE THE MID-1960'S, YET THERE IS NO PLAN FOR SUCCESSION EVEN THOUGH ITS LEADER, PRESIDENT SUHARTO IS IN HIS MID-70'S.

BUT MR. GARTEN'S BOOK FOCUSES MORE ON HOW THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CHANGE TO MEET THESE NEW CHALLENGES HE IS FORECASTING. HE URGES DEEP REFORM IN FOUR AREAS. HE SAYS, NEW DOMESTIC ECONOMIC POLICIES, NEED TO BE DEVELOPED TO COPE WITH INCREASED INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION -- HE CALLS FOR A MORE VIGOROUS, TRADE-DRIVEN FOREIGN POLICY -- HIGHER EDUCATION FOCUSSED MORE ON INTERNATIONAL ISSUES AND SKILLS -- AND HE SAYS CORPORATIONS MUST PREPARE STRATEGIES AND TRAIN NEW EXECUTIVES IF THEY ARE TO CONTINUE AS LEADERS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY.

MR. GARTEN SAYS A FIRST STEP IN MOVING FORWARD WITH THESE REFORMS IS TO ACKNOWLEDGE SOME OF THE UNITED STATES' WEAKNESSES, PARTICULARLY THOSE OF THE COUNTRY'S POLITICAL LEADERS.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO EXAGGERATE HOW LITTLE AWARENESS OF MOST OF THESE ISSUES OUR CONGRESS HAS. PEOPLE ARE BEING ELECTED FOR ALL KINDS OF REASONS, BUT CERTAINLY INTERNATIONAL SOPHISTICATION DOES NOT EVEN POP UP ON THE RADAR SCREEN. AND THIS IS THE GREAT IRONY THAT AT A TIME WHEN THE OUR ECONOMY HAS BECOME SO TIED TO THE WORLD OUR ELECTED OFFICIALS ARE INCREASINGLY PAROCHIAL AND LOCALLY FOCUSED.

MR. GARTEN SAYS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER COUNTRIES THE NEXT FEW DECADES WILL OFFER A COMBINATION OF UN-PRECEDENTED OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS. THE OPPORTUNITIES INCLUDE MORE THAN A TRILLION-DOLLARS IN INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN DEVELOPING NATIONS. THE RISKS ARE TIED TO WHAT HE SEES AS AN INCREASINGLY INTERDEPENDENT GLOBAL ECONOMY WHICH COULD FACE MASSIVE INSTABILITY IF ITS MAJOR PLAYERS ARE NOT PREPARED FOR THE CHANGES AHEAD. (SIGNED) NEB/NY/MPR/LSF/RAE
05-May-97 11:17 AM EDT (1517 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] CENTRAL EUROPE CONFERENCE (L ONLY) BY JOE CHAPMAN (NEW YORK)

INTRO: OFFICIALS OF FIVE CENTRAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES BEGAN A TWO-DAY CONFERENCE IN NEW YORK TODAY (MONDAY) THAT THEY HOPE WILL LEAD TO MORE TRADE AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT. V-O-A'S JOE CHAPMAN REPORTS FROM NEW YORK.

TEXT: SLOVENIA'S PRIME MINISTER, JANEZ DRNOVSEK, SAYS THE FIVE COUNTRIES OF THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT --- KNOWN AS CEFTA -- HAVE A LOT TO OFFER AMERICAN BUSINESSES BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME THINGS IN RETURN.

MR. DRNOVSEK, WHO IS CHAIRMAN OF A TWO DAY CENTRAL EUROPEAN INVESTMENT CONFERENCE IN NEW YORK, SAYS CEFTA COUNTRIES OFFER HIGH GROWTH RATES COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE TAX TREATMENT AND REGULATORY TREATMENT OF INVESTORS. THE REGION'S WORK FORCES, HE SAYS, ARE BOTH WELL QUALIFIED AND RELATIVELY LOW IN COST.

WHAT WE EXPECT FROM FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IS THE TRANSFER OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES, THE OPENING OF NEW MARKETS, AND BETTER EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION IN THE MANAGEMENT OF BUSINESS OPERATIONS. THE ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES IN THIS FRAMEWORK IS VERY IMPORTANT INDEED.

CEFTA MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY HUNGARY, POLAND, THE CZECH REPUBLIC, SLOVAKIA AND SLOVENIA. ROMANIA IS EXPECTED TO JOIN CEFTA THIS YEAR AND BULGARIA AT A LATER DATE.

THE SLOVENIAN PRIME MINISTER TOLD U-S GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND ABOUT 100 BUSINESS EXECUTIVES THAT CEFTA HOPES TO ACHIEVE A GENUINE FREE TRADE AREA BY THE YEAR TWO-THOUSAND-ONE AND ULTIMATELY BECOME MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.

STUART EIZENSTADT, WHO IS THE U-S UNDER SECRETARY OF COMMERCE FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE, PRAISED THE COUNTRIES OF THE REGION FOR THEIR SUCCESS SO FAR IN ATTRACTING FOREIGN INVESTMENT.

WHAT STARTED WITH PROJECTS SUCH AS GENERAL ELECTRIC'S "LIGHTING UP HUNGARY" HAS NOW EXTENDED TO EVERY SECTOR. THE LIST OF U-S COMPANIES IN CEFTA COUNTRIES READS LIKE THE FORTUNE 500 LIST (OF THE LARGEST U-S COMPANIES). U-S COMPANIES HAVE IMPROVED THE DAILY LIVES OF CENTRAL EUROPEANS FROM TELEPHONES AND COMPUTERS TO EVERYDAY CONSUMER GOODS. AND SMALLER AND MEDIUM SIZED BUSINESSES ARE NOW ALSO BEGINNING TO APPRECIATE THE MARKET.

MR. EIZENSTADT AND CEFTA LEADERS AGREE THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN CENTRAL EUROPE IS GOOD, BUT THAT THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT -- AND MORE GROWTH. (SIGNED) NEB/NY/JMC/LSF/PT
05-May-97 4:40 PM EDT (2040 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] EURO STOCKS (S ONLY) BY JACK HUIZENGA (LONDON)

INTRO: STOCK PRICES ROSE SHARPLY IN TRADING MONDAY IN MAJOR EUROPEAN MARKETS. V-O-A'S JACK HUIZENGA REPORTS FROM LONDON.

TEXT: PRICES SET A RECORD CLOSING HIGH IN FRANKFURT AND ALSO ROSE IN PARIS. ANALYSTS SAID TRADERS WERE ENCOURAGED BY WALL STREET'S CONTINUED RISE.

IN FRANKFURT, THE DAX-30 INDEX ENDED FLOOR TRADING UP BY MORE THAN 68-POINTS, ABOUT TWO-PERCENT. FRANKFURT PRICES CONTINUED TO RISE IN LATER COMPUTERIZED TRADING. IN PARIS, THE CAC-40 INDEX CLOSED UP BY 17-AND-ONE-HALF POINTS, ABOUT SIX-TENTHS OF ONE PERCENT.

THE LONDON MARKET -- EUROPE'S BIGGEST -- WAS CLOSED FOR A HOLIDAY.

IN CURRENCY TRADING IN EUROPE, THE U-S DOLLAR GAINED IN VALUE AGAINST THE GERMAN MARK AND THE JAPANESE YEN.
NEB/JWH/RAE
05-May-97 1:06 PM EDT (1706 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] GREECE / TURKEY (L ONLY) BY ANTHEE CARASSAVA (ATHENS)

INTRO: HOPES OF PEACE ARE SLOWLY EMERGING BETWEEN AGE-OLD RIVALS GREECE AND TURKEY. THE TWO NATO ALLIES HAVE AGREED TO START TALKING A YEAR AFTER A NEAR-WAR SHOWDOWN SUSPENDED ALL FORMS OF COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THEM. BUT AS ANTHEE CARASSAVA REPORTS FROM ATHENS, PRESS AND POLITICIANS ARE GIVING A COOL RECEPTION TO THE RAPPROCHEMENT.

TEXT: GREECE'S SOCIALIST GOVERNMENT LOOKED POISED MONDAY TO APPOINT TWO SENIOR ACADEMICS TO THE SO-CALLED GREEK COMMITTEE OF WISE MEN FOR PEACE.

THE MOVE COMES LESS THAN ONE WEEK AFTER GREEK FOREIGN MINISTER THEODORE PANGALOS AND HIS TURKISH COUNTERPART, TANSU CILLER, MET IN THE TURKISH CITY OF ISTANBUL AND PLEDGED TO IMPROVE SHAKY RELATIONS BETWEEN THEIR TWO COUNTRIES.

IT WAS THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS A SENIOR GREEK GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL MADE THE CROSSING TO WHAT LOCALS HERE CALL -- THE LAND OF THE ENEMY.

THE TWO FOREIGN MINISTERS AGREED TO PRESS AHEAD WITH A PLAN TO CREATE TWO NON-GOVERNMENTAL COMMITTEES OF EXPERTS IN A BID TO IRON-OUT AGE-OLD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GREECE AND TURKEY.

THE PLAN WAS PROMPTED BY THE DUTCH PRESIDENCY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION IN THE HOPE OF EASING TENSION ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE CONTINENT.

ANALYSTS SAY THE PLAN MAY ACT AS A PRELUDE TO HIGH-LEVEL PEACE TALKS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. ITS SUCCESS IS SEEN AS CRUCIAL TO THE OVERRIDING GOAL OF UNBLOCKING 430-MILLION-DOLLARS IN E-U FUNDS TO TURKEY.

THE AID WAS PROMISED TO ANKARA TO HELP IT MEET INCREASED TRADE COMPETITION POSED BY ITS 15-MONTH-OLD CUSTOMS UNION PACT WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION.

BUT GREECE HAS VETOED THE FUNDS IN A BID TO FORCE TURKEY TO RESOLVE A TERRITORIAL DISPUTE THAT BROUGHT THE TWO NATO ALLIES TO THE BRINK OF WAR LAST YEAR. THEY EACH DISPUTED OWNERSHIP OF A CROP OF AEGEAN ISLES INHABITED ONLY BY GOATS AND SHEEP.

BUT AS THE SIGN OF RAPPROCHEMENT APPEARS, SO DOES POLITICAL OPPOSITION.

THIRTY-TWO MEMBERS OF GREECE'S RULING SOCIALIST PARTY HAVE VOWED TO STRIP THE GOVERNMENT OF THEIR SUPPORT SHOULD IT ENTER INTO DIRECT DIALOGUE WITH TURKEY.

THE GREEK PRESS HAS ALSO ADOPTED A CRITICAL TONE, WARNING OF TURKEY'S PLAN TO MAN ITS COMMITTEE OF WISE MEN WITH TWO OF THE COUNTRY'S MOST HARD-LINE FOREIGN POLICY MAKERS.

THE GOVERNMENT IN ATHENS IS ARGUING THE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO COMMITTEES WOULD BE MORE EXPLORATIVE THAN DECISION-MAKING. (SIGNED)
NEB/AC/JWH/RAE
05-May-97 11:30 AM EDT (1530 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] IRAN / GERMANY (S ONLY) BY KYLE KING (BONN)

INTRO: GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER KLAUS KINKEL SAYS IT WILL BE UP TO THE GOVERNMENT OF IRAN TO REPAIR THE COUNTRY'S STRAINED RELATIONS WITH EUROPE. V-O-A'S KYLE KING REPORTS FROM BONN.

TEXT: THE GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER BLAMED IRAN FOR THE CURRENT STRAIN IN RELATIONS AND HE ACCUSED IRANIAN LEADERS OF TRYING TO CREATE DIVISIONS WITHIN EUROPE.

THE EUROPEAN UNION HAD AGREED TO THE RETURN OF AMBASSADORS THAT WERE RECALLED FROM IRAN FOLLOWING ALLEGATIONS OF IRANIAN INVOLVEMENT IN TERRORISM. BUT LAST WEEK, IRAN SAID IT WOULD NOT ALLOW THE AMBASSADORS FROM GERMANY AND DENMARK TO RETURN TO THEIR POSTS.

NOW MR. KINKEL SAYS NO E-U AMBASSADORS WILL BE RETURNING TO IRAN FOR THE TIME BEING.

MOST EUROPEAN AMBASSADORS WERE RECALLED FROM TEHRAN LAST MONTH AFTER A GERMAN COURT BLAMED IRAN'S LEADERS FOR ORDERING THE 1992 KILLING FOR FOUR KURDISH DISSIDENTS IN BERLIN. (SIGNED)
NEB/KBK/JWH/RAE
05-May-97 12:38 PM EDT (1638 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] IRAN UPDATE BY DEBORAH COOPER (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: IRAN TOPS THE LIST OF SEVEN COUNTRIES THE UNITED STATES ACCUSES OF SPONSORING OR PRACTICING TERRORISM. THE U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT'S ANNUAL REPORT ON TERRORISM SAYS IRAN STANDS OUT FROM THE REST OF THE COUNTRIES BECAUSE OF ITS UNIQUE POLICY OF ASSASSINATING DISSIDENTS. JUST LAST MONTH A COURT IN GERMANY RULED THAT IRAN'S LEADERS HAD GIVEN ORDERS TO MURDER THREE EXILED IRANIAN DISSIDENTS AND THEIR TRANSLATOR IN BERLIN. NEARLY ALL THE EUROPEAN UNION NATIONS WITHDREW THEIR AMBASSADORS FROM TEHRAN IN THE WAKE OF THE APRIL 10TH COURT DECISION. BUT THE E-U MINISTERS HAVE SINCE DECIDED TO RETURN THE DIPLOMATS WHILE BANNING MEETINGS WITH AND VISITS FROM TOP IRANIAN OFFICIALS. ALL THIS ONCE AGAIN FOCUSES ATTENTION ON THE LEVEL OF IRANIAN SUPPORT FOR INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM.

TEXT: THE FOUR IRANIANS KILLED IN BERLIN IN 1992 INCLUDED LEADERS OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF IRANIAN KURDISTAN. THE PARTY HAS LED A KURDISH WAR AGAINST THE IRANIAN REGIME FOR 16 YEARS. BUT ERIC HOAGLUND, EDITOR OF CRITIQUE, A JOURNAL OF CRITICAL STUDIES OF THE MIDDLE EAST, SAYS DESPITE THE GERMAN COURT'S RULING THAT IRAN'S LEADERS HAD ORDERED THE MURDERS, THE EVIDENCE WAS HARDLY SOLID.

TAPE: CUT 1 - HOAGLUND "THE JUDGE WAS UNABLE TO FIND ANY CONCRETE EVIDENCE OF WHO HIRED THEM, WHO THEY WORKED WITH AND THEY NEVER WERE ABLE TO FIND ANYTHING ELSE. AND THE JUDGE GAVE HIS OWN OPINION OF THAT ON CIRCUMSTANTIAL EVIDENCE BASED ON WHAT HE THOUGHT, ESSENTIALLY WHAT WE CALL IN THIS COUNTRY HERESAY EVIDENCE WHICH WE WOULDN'T ADMIT AS EVIDENCE IN ANY COURT IN THIS COUNTRY. WE HAVE JUST SPECULATION AND MOST PEOPLE SPECULATE THAT SINCE THESE PEOPLE WERE ACTUALLY MORE THAN DISSIDENTS -- THEY WERE FROM THE KURDISH DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF IRAN WHICH IS AT WAR WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF IRAN. IT IS FIGHTING A GUERILLA CAMPAIGN WITH IT. AND FOR THAT REASON MOST PEOPLE ASSUME THAT THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT ORDERED THAT."

TEXT: BUT, OTHERS, LIKE KENNETH TIMMERMAN, EDITOR OF IRAN BRIEFS, SAY THE EVIDENCE IS OVERWHELMINGLY IN FAVOR OF IRANIAN COMPLICITY IN THE GERMAN MURDERS AND IN OTHER SIMILAR INCIDENTS OUTSIDE IRAN.

TAPE: CUT 2 - TIMMERMAN "I THINK IT'S VERY CLEAR FROM BOTH THE TESTIMONY THAT WAS PRESENTED IN THE COURT AND IN A NUMBER OF OTHER CASES WE'VE SEEN WHERE IRANIAN DISSIDENTS HAVE BEEN MURDERED OVERSEAS THAT THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC FEELS THAT IT MUST GET RID OF THE LEADERS OF THE VARIOUS OPPOSITIONS GROUPS IF IT WANTS TO SURVIVE. CLEARLY, THESE GROUPS PRESENT SOME KIND OF THREAT TO THE REGIME OR ELSE THEY WOULDN'T BE MURDERING THEM."

TEXT: MR. TIMMERMAN SAYS THE IRANIAN REGIME IS TRYING TO REKINDLE ITS REVOLUTIONARY FIRES. HE ADDS THAT IN ORDER FOR THE REGIME TO SURVIVE, IRAN'S LEADERS BELIEVE THEY MUST ALSO REIGNITE THE RADICAL ANTI-AMERICANISM AND ANTI-WESTERNISM THAT MARKED ITS REVOLUTION NEARLY 20 YEARS AGO.

TAPE: CUT 3 - TIMMERMAN "THERE HAS BEEN A CRACKDOWN ON DISSIDENTS, POLITICAL DISSIDENTS INSIDE IRAN. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE OF ATTACKS ON DISSIDENTS OUTSIDE OF IRAN, MURDERS, ASSASSINATIONS. THERE HAS BEEN RENEWED SUPPORT FOR TERRORIST GROUPS LIKE HIZBOLLAH IN LEBANON AND ELSEWHERE. TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINT ISRAEL IN ARGENTINA, THE ATTACK ON THE ISRAELI EMBASSY AND ALSO ON A JEWISH CENTER THERE. SO YOU SEE THAT THE REGIME HAS TRIED TO BE REBORN IN ITS RADICAL ROOTS AND ITS RADICAL ANTI-AMERICANISM AND ANTI-WESTERNISM."

TEXT: THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL HAVE LONG ARGUED THAT IRAN GIVES FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO HIZBOLLAH AND OTHER RADICAL GROUPS WAGING GUERRILLA WARS AGAINST ISRAEL. KENNETH TIMMERMAN SAYS THOSE CLAIMS ARE SUPPORTED BY IRAN'S BUDGET.

TAPE: CUT 4 - TIMMERMAN "YOU CAN ALSO READ THE ANNALS OF THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT, THE MAJLIS, AND YOU'LL SEE THERE THAT THEY HAVE AN ANNUAL BUDGET OF APPROXIMATELY 100 MILLION DOLLARS IN SUPPORT OF NATIONAL LIBERATION GROUPS IN ISLAMIC COUNTRIES. BY THAT THEY MEAN HIZBOLLAH IN LEBANON, HAMAS IN THE (OCCUPIED) TERRITORIES (OF ISRAEL), AND ALSO PALESTINIAN/ISLAMIC JIHAD. THE LATEST INFORMATION THAT I AM AWARE OF HAS THE SPLIT ABOUT 60/40. IN OTHER WORDS, ABOUT SIXTY MILLION DOLLARS FOR HIZBOLLAH IN LEBANON AND ABOUT 40 MILLION DOLLARS FOR HAMAS AND PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC/JIHAD."

TEXT: ERIC HOAGLUND SAYS THE IRANIAN PARLIAMENT DOES HAVE A COMMITTEE WHICH GIVES MONEY TO IRAN'S SECRET INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION JUST AS THE U.S. CONGRESS APPROPRIATES MONEY FOR THE C-I-A. BUT, HE ADDS, THAT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW HOW THAT MONEY IS USED, JUST AS IT IS WITH THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE APPARATUS.

TAPE: CUT 5 - HOAGLUND "UNFORTUNATELY IT BECOMES A POLITICAL THING WHICH IT UNFORTUNATELY HAS BECOME IN DEALING WITH IRAN THAT WE REALLY DON'T HAVE A WAY OF REALLY KNOWING WHAT'S GOING ON AND A MEANS FOR BEING CRITICAL OF THEM EXCEPT IN A NOT HELPFUL AND PROPAGANDISTIC WAY."

TEXT: KENNETH TIMMERMAN, EDITOR OF IRAN BRIEFS, SAYS THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BE DOING MORE TO SUPPORT THOSE INSIDE IRAN WHO OPPOSE THE REGIME. HE SAYS MANY OF THEM ARE COMMITTED TO BRINGING DEMOCRACY TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.

TAPE: CUT 6 - TIMMERMAN "I THINK THIS REGIME IS REALLY SERIOUSLY CHALLENGED INSIDE BY ITS OWN PEOPLE. IT'S CHALLENGED INSIDE THE TRADITIONAL CLERGY WHO HAVE ALL CRITICIZED THE REGIME FOR BEING A TRAVESTY OF ISLAM, CHALLENGED BY THE MILITARY INSIDE IRAN WHO ARE DISTURBED THAT THE LEADERSHIP HAS BEEN RUINING THE COUNTRY AND I BELIEVE THEY ARE REALLY CLUTCHING AT STRAWS."

TEXT: BUT ERIC HOAGLUND SAYS THERE'S NOT MUCH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE NOTION OF ANY SERIOUS OPPOSITION TO THE REGIME.

TAPE: CUT 7- HOAGLUND "I'M TALKING ABOUT OPPOSITON TO OVERTHOW IT. OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO DON'T LIKE THE REGIME. BUT IN TERMS OF AN ORGANIZED OPPOSITION THAT WANTS TO OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT THERE'S NO EVIDENCE THAT ANY OF THAT EXISTS IN IRAN AT ALL."

TEXT: IRANIAN EXPERT ERIC HOAGLUND, EDITOR OF CRITIQUE, ALLOWS THAT SUCH OPPOSITION DOES EXIST OUTSIDE IRAN, MAINLY FROM THE NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY OF IRAN BASED IN IRAQ. BUT HE BELIEVES IRAN'S LEADER FEEL NO REAL THREAT FROM SUCH GROUPS. (SIGNED)
NEB/DC/NES
05-May-97 9:37 AM EDT (1337 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[07] MONDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: AMERICA'S NEWSPAPERS ARE EDITORIALIZING ON MANY TOPICS THIS FIRST MONDAY IN MAY. THE TOPICS EVERYTHING FROM PRESIDENT CLINTON'S TRIP TO MEXICO, TO CRITICISM OF THE VOICE OF AMERICA.

IN BETWEEN, WE GET OPINIONS ON BRITAIN'S NEW PRIME MINISTER; A DECLINE IN U.S. TEEN SEXUAL ACTIVITY; SOME THOUGHTS ON ATTORNEY GENERAL JANET RENO; THE FURTHER DOWNSIZING OF THE MILITARY; AND DISTURBING TRENDS CONTINUING IN BELARUS.

NOW, HERE WITH A CLOSER LOOK IS ___________________AND TODAY'S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

TEXT: TODAY'S MIAMI HERALD, BOSTON GLOBE, AND BALTIMORE SUN ALL LEAD THEIR EDITORIALS COLUMNS WITH THOUGHTS ON PRESIDENT CLINTON'S TRIP TO MEXICO, LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. THE TRIP BEGINS LATER TODAY [5/5]. FIRST, THE HERALD, WHICH SEES TOO LITTLE SUBSTANCE IN THE VISIT.

VOICE: "AS CAN BE EXPECTED, HIS SCHEDULE HAS BEEN MASSAGED PAINSTAKINGLY TO AVOID POLITICAL PITFALLS. IT'S PACKED WITH POMP AND PHOTO OPS, [OPPORTUNITIES] BUT WITH LITTLE TIME FOR SUBSTANCE. PRESIDENTIAL SMILES ARE, OF COURSE, NO SUBSTITUTE FOR REAL, TWO-WAY U-S HEMISPHERIC RELATIONSHIPS. AT THE HISTORIC SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS IN MIAMI IN .... 1994, MR. PRESIDENT, YOU PLEDGED THAT FREE TRADE WOULD EXIST THROUGHOUT THE HEMISPHERE BY TWO-THOUSAND-FIVE. BUT MANY QUESTION WHETHER THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT HAS DELIVERED ON ITS ECONOMIC PROMISES. THEN THERE ARE THE TWIN CONCERNS OF IMMIGRATION AND DRUG-TRAFFICKING. HOLIER-THAN-THOU [STRICT AND SANCTIMONIUS] U-S LAWS AND ATTITUDE ARE DETESTED BY THIS COUNTRY'S LATIN NEIGHBORS. .... THE ISSUES ARE AS COMPLICATED AS THEY ARE INTERTWINED. .... TO ACHIEVE ANY PROGRESS, THE UNITED STATES NEEDS TO FORGE TRULY COLLABORATIVE ALLIANCES WITH THE HEMISPHERE."

TEXT: IN BALTIMORE, THE SUN WORRIES ABOUT THE DRUG ISSUE, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SOUR RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO NEIGHBORS.

VOICE: "AMERICANS SCOLD MEXICO AS THE CHIEF CONDUIT FOR THE DRUG FLOW THAT BEDEVILS U-S SOCIETY. MEXICANS, WHILE TOUGHENING ENFORCEMENT, SAY IT IS THE BIG-MONEY U-S APPETITE FOR DRUGS THAT CORRUPTS THEIR COUNTRY. THE DRUG ISSUE HAS INFLAMED NATIONALISTIC SENTIMENT ON BOTH COUNTRIES. IT WILL BE A CLINTON-ZEDILLO OBJECTIVE TO CALM PASSIONS AND RESTORE GOOD FEELINGS ...."

TEXT: AND THE BOSTON GLOBE, UPSET AT THE LATEST FINDINGS ON POLICE ABUSES IN MEXICO BY AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL, SUGGESTS MASSACHUSETTS GOVERNOR WILLIAM WELD, SELECTED TO BE THE NEW U-S AMBASSADOR THERE, STUDIES THE REPORT CAREFULLY.

VOICE: "IT IS A DESOLATING DOCUMENT. DESPITE SOME LEGAL REFORMS AND THE EXISTENCE OF A MEXICAN HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION, AMNESTY FOUND THAT [POLICE] TORTURE AND ILL-TREATMENT IN MEXICO CONTINUE TO BE WIDE-SPREAD AND EVEN SYSTEMATIC IN SOME STATES."

TEXT: THE NEW BRITISH PRIME MINISTER, TONY BLAIR, EARNS A GOOD DEAL OF ATTENTION, INCLUDING THIS LONG EDITORIAL FROM THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR, WHICH WONDERS WHETHER MR. BLAIR WILL BE ABLE TO ACCOMPLISH ALL OF WHAT HE TALKED ABOUT IN THE CAMPAIGN.

VOICE: "IN THEORY [ITALICS FOR EMPHASIS], TONY BLAIR CAN USE HIS LANDSLIDE MANDATE TO CHANGE THE WAY BRITAIN GOVERNS ITSELF, DECENTRALIZING POWER AND INSTALLING PROPORTIONAL VOTING. IN THEORY, [ITALICS AGAIN] HE CAN CHANGE THE WAY BRITISH CORPORATIONS ARE GOVERNED, HANDING MORE SAY [CONTROL] TO EMPLOYEES AND CUSTOMERS. IN THEORY [ITALICS] HIS SWEEPING VICTORY PROVIDES A BLUEPRINT FOR EUROPE'S SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ... TO RETURN TO POWER AS THATCHERITE NEOSOCIALISTS. .... IN THEORY, YES. BUT WHAT ABOUT IN PRACTICE?

TEXT: THE WASHINGTON POST, ON THE SAME THEME, CALLS THE ELECTION 'HISTORIC' BUT WARNS:

VOICE: ".... WHILE IT IS A PERSONAL MANDATE, IT IS NOT ONE FOR A NEW PROGRAM. AND WHILE IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE FACT THAT BRITAIN'S LABOR PARTY HAD LONG BEEN IN NEED OF A PURGING OF .... ANTIQUATED AND STULTIFYING ECONOMIC POLICIES, PRIME MINISTER BLAIR WAS LESS AN INNOVATOR THAN A MAN WHO DETERMINED WHICH WAY THE WIND WAS BLOWING [CORRECTLY GAUGED PUBLIC SENTIMENT] AND TOOK A COURSE QUITE LIKE THE POLICY OF THE TORY HE DEFEATED, JOHN MAJOR."

TEXT: NOTING A MARKED DECLINE IN TEENAGE PREGNANCIES, THE MIAMI HERALD SUGGESTS THAT:

VOICE: "FEWER TEENAGE GIRLS ARE HAVING SEX, AND MORE OF THEM ARE USING CONTRACEPTIVES WHEN THEY DO. .... THIS IS A MODICUM OF HEARTENING NEWS FOR COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE GONE TO GREAT LENGTHS TO .... EDUCATE ADOLESCENTS AS TO THE GRAVE, LIFE-ALTERNING CONSEQUENCES OF PREMATURE AND UNPROTECTED SEX..... BUT FAR TOO MANY [GIRLS] STILL ARE BEING VICTIMIZED."

TEXT: TODAY'S WASHINGTON TIMES TAKES NOTICE OF ATTORNEY GENERAL JANET RENO'S CONTINUED REFUSAL TO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF APPOINTING A SPECIAL COUNSEL TO PROBE ALLEGED CAMPAIGN FINANCE WRONGDOING, WITH THESE THOUGHTS.

VOICE: "JANET RENO PUT ON QUITE THE SHOW LAST WEEK, IN THE SENATE, STERNLY DEFENDING HER FABLED INTEGRITY AND TENACIOUSLY MAINTAINING THE UNTENABLE - - NAMELY, THAT SHE HAD NO GOOD REASON TO APPOINT AN INDEPENDENT COUNSEL TO LOOK INTO DEMOCRATIC FUND RAISING IRREGULARITIES. BUT POTENTIALLY EVEN MORE ALARMING THAT MS. RENO'S INABILITY TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE ..... POSSIBLE CRIMINAL WRONGDOING GLARING IN HER FACE IS THE GROWING EVIDENCE THAT THE JUSTICE DEPARTMENT'S IN-HOUSE INVESTIGATION IS A SHAM."

TEXT: THE LOS ANGELES TIMES IS WORRIED ABOUT ADDITIONAL MILITARY BASE CLOSINGS IN CALIFORNIA AS THE PENTAGON CONTINUES TO RESPOND TO BUDGET PRESSURES, AND THE PAPER CALLS FOR EQUITY IN THE CUTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NATION.

VOICE: "IT'S HARD TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING REDUNDANT FACILITIES. BUT CLEARLY, EQUITY MUST ALSO BE A HIGH PRIORITY IN ANY NEW ROUND OF BASE CLOSINGS."

TEXT: NOTING A GROWING TOTALITARIAN TREND IN THE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLIC OF BELARUS, THE WASHINGTON POST EXCLAIMS:

VOICE: "WHILE MUCH OF THE WORLD BECOMES MORE DEMOCRATIC, THE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLIC OF BELARUS IS MOVING THE OTHER WAY. BRICK BY BRICK, YOU CAN WATCH ITS PRESIDENT, ALEXANDER LUKASHENKA, CONSTRUCT A NEW POLICE STATE AS HE CONSOLIDATES HIS ONE-MAN RULE. INDEPENDENT RADIO STATIONS ARE SHUT DOWN, THE NATION'S LEGITIMATE PARLIAMENT ABOLISHED. THE COUNTRY EMPLOYS MORE POLICE THAN NEIGHBORING POLAND, ALTHOUGH POLAND HAS FOUR TIMES THE POPULATION. .... BELARUS MATTERS IN PART BECAUSE ITS BACKWARD MOVEMENT OFFERS A DISCOURAGING EXAMPLE TO COUNTRIES ALL AROUND THAT ARE MOVING THE OTHER WAY: POLAND, LITHUANIA, UKRAINE AND RUSSIA."

TEXT: AND STILL IN FORMER SOVIET UNION AFFAIRS, THE WASHINGTON TIMES HAS A LEAD EDITORIAL CRITICIZING OFFICIALS OF THE VOICE OF AMERICA FOR ACTIONS TAKEN AGAINST EMPLOYEES IN THE RUSSIAN, GEORGIAN AND ARMENIAN LANGUAGE SERVICES. THESE "DISSIDENTS", ACCORDING TO THE TIMES, HAVE OFFERED "CONSTRUCTIVE PROPOSALS" FOR IMPROVING SERVICES AND CHARGE THAT MUCH OF THE PROGRAMMING IS OFTEN "STALE OR IRRELEVANT". CONCLUDES THE WASHINGTON TIMES:

VOICE: "HAVING READ STORY AFTER STORY ABOUT THE HORRORS OF POLITICAL CORRECTNESS COMMITTED UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THE U-S GOVERNMENT, ONE EASILY BECOMES HARDENED. YET TO FIND IT FLOURISHING IN THIS WAY, IN THE VERY AGENCY DEDICATED TO BROADCASTING THE CONCEPTS OF FREEDOM TO THE WORLD, IS TRULY MIND-BLOWING [FANTASTICALLY UNBELIEVABLE]."

TEXT: ON THATL NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SUMMARY OF COMMENTS TO BE FOUND IN MONDAY'S EDITORIAL PAGES.
NEB/ANG/NL
05-May-97 10:57 AM EDT (1457 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[08] N-Y ECON WRAP (S & L) BY BRECK ARDERY (NEW YORK)

INTRO: STOCK PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES WERE UP STRONGLY TODAY (MONDAY) PUSHING MAJOR INDEXES TO RECORD HIGHS. VOA CORRESPONDENT BRECK ARDERY REPORTS FROM NEW YORK.

TEXT: THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE CLOSED AT A RECORD HIGH 72 HUNDRED 14, UP 143 POINTS OR TWO PERCENT. THE BROADER AND MORE REPRESENTATIVE STANDARD AND POOR'S 500 INDEX WAS UP 17 POINTS CLOSING AT 830, ALSO A RECORD HIGH.

ANALYSTS SAY IT WAS WHAT THEY CALL A "MOMENTUM" DAY, WITH MANY INVESTMENT MANAGERS SCRAMBLING TO BUY STOCKS. LAST WEEK'S STRONG PERFORMANCE APPARENTLY CONVINCED MANY TRADERS THAT STOCKS WERE POISED FOR ANOTHER STRONG RALLY.

THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY IN THE UNITED STATES WON A COURT VICTORY WHEN A JURY IN THE STATE OF FLORIDA DECIDED THAT THE R-J REYNOLDS COMPANY IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LUNG CANCER DEATH OF A HEAVY SMOKER. TOBACCO STOCKS SOARED ON THE NEWS.

U-S REGULATORS HAVE GIVEN APPROVAL TO A NICOTINE INHALATION SYSTEM MADE BY THE JOHNSON AND JOHNSON DRUG COMPANY.

THE PRODUCT IS DESIGNED TO HELP WEAN SMOKERS AWAY FROM CIGARETTES.

ANOTHER CONSOLIDATION IN THE AMERICAN TISSUE PAPER INDUSTRY WAS ANNOUNCED WITH THE MERGER OF THE JAMES RIVER AND FORT HOWARD CORPORATIONS. ANALYSTS SAY THE DEAL, WORTH ALMOST SIX BILLION DOLLARS, WILL PUT THE COMBINED COMPANY IN A STRONGER COMPETITIVE POSITION AGAINST KIMBERLY-CLARK, THE DOMINANT PRODUCER OF TISSUE PAPER PRODUCTS. IN 1995, KIMBERLY-CLARK PAID MORE THAN NINE BILLION DOLLARS TO ACQUIRE THE SCOTT PAPER COMPANY.

THE STOCK OF THE BRE-X MINERALS COMPANY OF CANADA WAS NOT TRADED MONDAY AND IS THOUGHT TO BE VIRTUALLY WORTHLESS AFTER A REPORT SUNDAY THAT THE COMPANY'S HUGE GOLD DISCOVERY IN INDONESIA IS A FRAUD. AN INDEPENDENT CONSULTANT SAYS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD IN THE PROPERTY WAS "FALSIFIED WITHOUT PRECEDENT IN THE HISTORY OF MINING." (SIGNED) NEB/NY/BA/LSF/LWM
05-May-97 5:45 PM EDT (2145 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[09] TURKEY / AZERBAIJAN (L-O) BY AMBERIN ZAMAN (ANKARA)

INTRO: AZERBAIJANI'S PRESIDENT HAYDAR ALIYEV ARRIVED IN ANKARA MONDAY ON A FOUR-DAY VISIT AIMED AT BOOSTNG TIES WITH ITS REGIONAL ALLY, TURKEY. AMBERIN ZAMAN REPORTS FROM ANKARA.

TEXT: MR. ALIYEV'S FIRST STOP UPON ARRIVAL WAS AT THE HEADQUARTERS OF TURKISH ARMY CHIEF, GENERAL ISMAIL HAKKI KARADAYI. SOME OBSERVERS CALLED THIS A SIGN OF WHAT THEY DESCRIBED AS THE INCREASINGLY OVERT ROLE PLAYED BY THE TURKISH ARMY IN DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICY.

MR. ALIYEV DECLINED TO COMMENT ON THE MEETING AND WENT ON TO THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE FOR TALKS WITH TURKISH PRESIDENT SULEYMAN DEMIREL. SPEAKING TO REPORTERS AFTER THE TALKS, THE AZERI LEADER SAID HIS COUNTRY'S MAIN PROBLEM WAS WITH NEIGHBORING ARMENIA.

AZERBAIJAN ACCUSES ARMENIA OF ARMING AND TRAINING ARMENIAN MILITIA IN THE DISPUTED NAGORNO-KARABKH ENCLAVE WHICH LIES WITHIN AZERI TERRITORY -- SOME 20 PERCENT OF WHICH IS NOW UNDER ARMENIAN CONTROL

A RUSSIAN-BROKERED CEASEFIRE HAS BEEN HOLDING FOR THE PAST THREE YEARS. BUT PEACE TALKS SPONSORED BY THE ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE, O-S-C-E, HAVE YIELDED FEW RESULTS SO FAR. TURKEY, WHICH HAS STRONG ETHNIC, LINGUISTIC AND RELIGIOUS TIES WITH AZERBAIJAN, HAS PLAYED A KEY ROLE IN BACKING THE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLIC THROUGH ITS CONTINUED ECONOMIC BLOCKADE OF ARMENIA.

TURKEY SAYS IT WILL END THE EMBARGO ONLY IF ARMENIAN FORCES WITHDRAW FROM THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. ANALYSTS SAY THAT IN EXCHANGE FOR ITS SUPPORT, TURKEY WANTS AZERBAIJAN TO EXPORT ITS VAST RESERVES OF OIL THROUGH A PROPOSED PIPELINE RUNNING TO TURKEY.

THE PIPELINE ISSUE IS EXPECTED TO BE AMONG THE MAIN TOPICS OF DISCUSSION DURING MR. ALIYEV'S STAY.

THE AZERI LEADER WAS DUE TO SIGN A SERIES OF COOPERATION AGREEMENTS ON ENERGY, MARITIME AFFAIRS, AND SOCIAL SECURITY. THE TWO COUNTRIES ALREADY SIGNED A STRATEGIC COOPERATION AGREEMENT MONDAY, WHICH ANALYSTS SAY, WILL BOLSTER AN EXISTING MILITARY COOPERATION AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS. (SIGNED)
NEB/AZ/JWH
05-May-97 11:48 AM EDT (1548 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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