Voice of America, 96-09-12

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] THURSDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

[02] BOSNIA / DIVISIONS BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (_)

[03] BOSNIA / SERBS (S) BY DAVID FOLEY (SARAJEVO)

[04] BOSNIA PARTIES BY KYLE KING (SARAJEVO)

[05] BOSNIA SERBS (L) BY DAVID FOLEY (SARAJEVO)

[06] NATO IN BOSNIA: HOW LONG? BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)

[07] NATO IN BOSNIA: HOW LONG? (2ND PART) BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)

[08] SLOVENIA EYES NATO (L-O) BY DON HENRY (WASHINGTON)

[01] THURSDAY'S EDITORIALS BY ANDREW N. GUTHRIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: HOW THE UNITED STATES SHOULD DEAL WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN TOPS SEVERAL EDITORIAL COLUMNS IN THURSDAY'S U-S PRESS, AS REPORTS CONTINUE OF A POSSIBLE NEW AIR STRIKE AGAINST THE IRAQI MILITARY DICTATOR. OTHER TOPICS UNDER DISCUSSION TODAY INCLUDE: THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN DEBATES; ROSS PEROT'S VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE, AND THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS TREATY. NOW, HERE WITH A CLOSER LOOK AND A FEW QUOTES IS _________________ AND TODAY'S U-S EDITORIAL DIGEST.

TEXT: FROM PORTLAND, OREGON TO PORTLAND, MAINE, U-S NEWSPAPERS ARE DISCUSSING HOW THE UNITED STATES SHOULD DEAL WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN. IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE OREGONIAN SAYS "IRAQ'S ATTACK ON TWO U-S F-16 FIGHTERS MAKES THE CASE FOR A NEW, ENHANCED ROUND OF AMERICAN REPRISALS."

VOICE: "WITH OR WITHOUT ITS GULF WAR ALLIES, A DISPROPORTIONATE, GROUND-POUNDING U-S RESPONSE TO THIS IRAQI REBUKE IS ESSENTIAL. SADDAM MUST LEARN THERE'S NO GIVE [FLEXIBILITY] IN THE NO-FLY DEMAND. AS AN ADDED BENEFIT, THE UNITED STATES SHOULD USE THE OCCASION TO TURN TO POWDER THE MILITARY ASSETS SADDAM HAS REBUILT SINCE THE WAR... IN THE END, THIS IS ABOUT MORE THAN PROTECTING THE FRACTIOUS KURDS."

TEXT: ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THE PORTLAND [MAINE] PRESS HERALD IS EQUALLY ADAMANT ABOUT PUNISHING THE IRAQI LEADER, BUT THE PURPOSE MUST BE MADE CLEAR.

VOICE: "AS MORE U-S AIR FORCE BOMBERS FLY TO WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF IRAQ, IT IS CRITICALLY IMPORTANT THAT THE U-S GOVERNMENT CLEARLY DECIDE WHAT IT WANTS IN IRAQ AND THE OTHER NATIONS OF THE PERSIAN GULF. THEIR OIL IS THE LIFEBLOOD OF THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES OF THE WEST. ... SADDAM'S TAKEOVER IN THE NORTH SHOWS HE HAS NOT GIVEN UP HIS AMBITIONS. WHAT THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES DO NOW IS CRITICAL TO MAINTAINING INFLUENCE AND ACCESS IN THIS CRUCIAL PART OF THE WORLD."

TEXT: THE NEW YORK TIMES ALSO WANTS MORE DISCLOSURE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE ABOUT U-S INTENTIONS IN IRAQ.

VOICE: "THOUGH SADDAM HUSSEIN STARTED THE LATEST CONFLICT, PRESIDENT CLINTON OWES AMERICANS A CLEAR EXPLANATION OF HOW HE MEANS TO DEAL WITH THE COMPLEX POLITICAL AND MILITARY EQUATION IN THE PERSIAN GULF BEFORE SENDING MORE FORCES INTO COMBAT. HE HAS NOT YET MADE A CONVINCING CASE FOR INTENSIFIED AIR STRIKES AGAINST IRAQ... WHILE WE SUPPORTED MR. CLINTON'S ACTIONS LAST WEEK, HE DOES NOT HAVE A BLANK CHECK [UNLIMITED AUTHORITY] FROM CONGRESS OR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO MOUNT MILITARY OPERATIONS WITHOUT DEMONSTRATING THAT AMERICA'S NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS ARE THREATENED."

TEXT: THE WASHINGTON POST SAYS THE TIMING OF THE ESCALATION OF CONFLICT WITH IRAQ CAN HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE U-S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN.

VOICE: "THAT THIS LATEST IRAQ CRISIS IS UNFOLDING IN AN AMERICAN POLITICAL CAMPAIGN SUBJECTS EVERY MOVE BY BILL CLINTON, AND BY HIS CHALLENGER ROBERT DOLE, TO UNUSUALLY SKEPTICAL SCRUTINY. MR. DOLE'S SUPPORT OF THE INITIAL MILITARY ACTION HELPED THE PRESIDENT. MR. CLINTON'S EXCESSIVE CLAIM THAT THE ACTION WAS A 'SUCCESS' WAS A SELF-INFLICTED WOUND. THE DESIRE TO BE SEEN AS AN EFFECTIVE FOREIGN-POLICY HELMSMAN ... IS NOT NECESSARILY DANGEROUS -- BUT IT IS IF IT GIVES WAY TO UNJUSTIFIED BOASTING OR UNJUSTIFIED ATTACK."

TEXT: TURNING TO ANOTHER WORLD TROUBLESPOT, NEWSDAY OF LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK, SAYS, "HOWEVER BOSNIA'S ELECTIONS TURN OUT (THIS SATURDAY), THE QUESTION STILL IS WHAT NATO SHOULD DO NEXT," ADDING.

VOICE: "THE ELECTIONS NOT ONLY WON'T SOLVE BOSNIA'S PROBLEMS, BUT MAY MAKE THEM WORSE. THE ONLY HONEST QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT NATO AND THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO DEPLOY TROOPS TO KEEP THE PEACE AFTER THE ELECTIONS, AND FOR HOW LONG. THAT'S SOMETHING THEY MUST SERIOUSLY CONSIDER."

TEXT: IN DOMESTIC POLITICS, THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN DEBATES ARE A GROWING ISSUE, ESPECIALLY WHETHER TO INCLUDE REFORM PARTY CANDIDATE ROSS PEROT AND OTHER MINOR CANDIDATES. A DEBATE COMMISSION WILL DECIDE SOON AND THE LOS ANGELES TIMES, IN THURSDAY'S LEAD EDITORIAL, SAYS:

VOICE: "WE THINK [MR.] PEROT SHOULD BE INCLUDED, NOT LEAST BECAUSE OF HIS PRESENCE ON THE BALLOT IN ALL 50 STATES AND HIS POSITION AS A NATIONAL FIGURE... [THE DEBATES] COULD PROVIDE A FORUM FOR A HARD PROBING OF POSITIONS ON WHICH THE CANDIDATES, IF LEFT TO THEMSELVES, MIGHT OFFER ONLY MUSH."

TEXT: TODAY'S WALL STREET JOURNAL SPEAKS OUT ON BEHALF OF THE OTHER LESSER CANDIDATES:

VOICE: "... IF THE COMMISSION ... TWISTS ITS CRITERIA TO INCLUDE MR. PEROT, THE NUMBER OF CANDIDATES ON THAT STAGE ... SHOULD BE FIVE. HARRY BROWNE, THE LIBERTARIAN PARTY CANDIDATE, WILL BE ON ALL 50 STATE BALLOTS AND IN FACT IS MUCH MORE INTERESTING THAN MR. PEROT AT ASSERTING A POPULIST CRITIQUE OF GOVERNMENT. AND RALPH NADER, A WELL-KNOWN NATIONAL FIGURE, IS RUNNING UNDER THE GREEN PARTY BANNER ... [AND] HAS ALMOST AS MUCH SUPPORT AS MR. PEROT AND COULD OUTPOLL HIM IN PLACES THIS NOVEMBER."

TEXT: OF MR. PEROT'S CHOICE FOR A VICE PRESIDENTIAL RUNNING MATE, THE OREGONIAN SAYS:

VOICE: "ONCE AGAIN, DESPITE WIDE-RANGING NAME-DROPPING, [MR.] PEROT HAS COME UP WITH A PERSONAL ASSOCIATE FOR A RUNNING MATE, INSTEAD OF A FIGURE WITH HIS OR HER OWN POLITICAL STATURE... [MR.] PEROT ANOINTED PAT CHOATE, A WASHINGTON ECONOMIST AND [MR.] PEROT'S CO-AUTHOR ON AN ANTI-NAFTA BOOK. HARDLY ANYBODY EXPECTS A HUGE PEROT BOOST FROM THE CHOATE VOTE... OF COURSE, IT'S ALSO A STRETCH TO IMAGINE ROSS PEROT AS PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES."

TEXT: CONCERNING THE U-S SENATE'S UPCOMING VOTE ON THE CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION BANNING SUCH WEAPONS, THE WASHINGTON TIMES SAYS IT IS OPPOSED.

VOICE: "WHILE MOST PEOPLE -- TERRORISTS AND LUNATIC DICTATORS EXCEPTED -- REGARD CHEMICAL WEAPONS WITH ABHORRENCE AND INDEED WOULD LIKE TO SEE THEM BANISHED FROM THE FACE OF THE EARTH, THE UNFORTUNATE FACT IS THAT THE C-W-C [CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION] WILL DO LITTLE TO INHIBIT THEIR PRODUCTION AND USE BY THOSE WHO ARE SUFFICIENTLY UNSCRUPULOUS."

TEXT: NOT SO, SAYS THE ORLANDO SENTINEL, WHICH CALLS THE "CHEMICAL PACT A POSITIVE STEP." THE PAPER SAYS THE PACT IS NOT FOOLPROOF, BUT ADDS:

VOICE: "SENATORS SHOULD DO THE RIGHT THING AND RATIFY THE ACCORD... THE TREATY OFFERS THE BEST HOPE TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL USE OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS."

TEXT: THE BOSTON GLOBE SALUTES TUESDAY'S OVERWHELMING VOTE IN THE U-N GENERAL ASSEMBLY IN FAVOR OF THE TREATY TO BAN NUCLEAR TESTING, WITH INDIA THE ONLY NUCLEAR STATE OPPOSING.

VOICE: "THE ... VOTE ... SIGNIFIES MORE A VEILING OF UNRESOLVED DIFFICULTIES THAN THE ACHIEVEMENT MOST STATES AND THEIR PEOPLES DESIRE. BECAUSE WASHINGTON DID NOT HEED WARNINGS ABOUT INDIA'S INABILITY OR UNWILLINGNESS TO SIGN THE TREATY, THE UNITED STATES FAILED TO PRESS FOR PROVISIONS THAT WOULD HAVE PRECLUDED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INDIAN VETO... NOW IT IS CRUCIAL THAT PRESIDENT CLINTON AND THE SENATE PROCEED TO EARLY RATIFICATION OF THE TREATY [OPT] SO THE UNITED STATES WILL BE IN A POSITION TO PROD OTHER STATES TO RATIFY." [END OPT]

TEXT: WITH THAT WE CONCLUDE THIS BRIEF SAMPLING OF EDITORIAL OPINION FROM TODAY'S U-S PRESS.
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12-Sep-96 11:02 AM EDT (1502 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] BOSNIA / DIVISIONS BY DOUGLAS ROBERTS (_)

INTRO: INTERNATIONAL OFFICIALS HOPE THE BOSNIAN ELECTION SATURDAY WILL BE A FIRST STEP TOWARD RE-UNITING THE COUNTRY. BUT MANY DOUBTS REMAIN. HUNDREDS-OF-THOUSANDS OF BOSNIANS ARE REFUGEES, UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL EVER BE ABLE TO RETURN TO THEIR HOMES. MANY OTHER BOSNIANS LIVE IN DIVIDED TOWNS LIKE GORNJI VAKUF IN CENTRAL BOSNIA, TORN APART DURING THE MUSLIM-CROAT FIGHTING OF 1993. DOUGLAS ROBERTS REPORTS FROM GORNJI VAKUF.

TEXT: THE MUSLIM-CROAT WAR CUT THROUGH THE HEART OF THIS SMALL MARKET TOWN OF ABOUT 25-THOUSAND PEOPLE. THE WOUNDS HAVE YET TO HEAL.

GORNJI VAKUF WAS STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT FOR BOTH SIDES. IT STRADDLES A KEY ROAD BETWEEN THE CROAT STRONGHOLDS TO THE SOUTH AND THE PREDOMINANTLY MUSLIM TERRITORY OF CENTRAL BOSNIA. BUT IN A QUIRK OF GEOGRAPHY, THE TWO SIDES OF TOWN WERE CUT OFF FROM THEIR NATURAL SUPPLY BASES AND BOTH SUFFERED ACUTE SHORTAGES OF FOOD AND MEDICINE DURING THE YEAR-LONG BATTLE.

THE FIGHTING, BY ALL ACCOUNTS, WAS VICIOUS. ONE CROAT RECALLS, TOWNSPEOPLE WERE FACE-TO-FACE, WITH A SINGLE STREET SEPARATING THEM, FIGHTING FORMER NEIGHBORS -- PEOPLE THEY HAD KNOWN ALL THEIR LIVES.

EACH SIDE SUFFERED AT LEAST ONE-THOUSAND DEAD, A STAGGERING TOLL FOR SUCH A SMALL TOWN. AN ESTIMATED 90-PERCENT OF GORNJI VAKUF'S BUILDINGS WERE DAMAGED BY SHELLFIRE.

THERE IS SOME REBUILDING NOW. BUT MUCH REMAINS TO BE DONE. GORNJI VAKUF REMAINS A DIVIDED TOWN. THAT IS THE KEY ISSUE IN THE CAMPAIGN HERE.

THE DOMINANT CROAT POLITICAL PARTY, THE H-D-Z, WANTS TWO SEPARATE MUNICIPALITIES FOR GORNJI VAKUF. CROAT LEADERS HAVE ALREADY TAKEN SOME UNILATERAL STEPS TO ACHIEVE THAT OBJECTIVE.

THEY NOW CALL THE CROAT SIDE OF TOWN USKOPIJE, THE ORIGINAL NAME OF THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE AGES BEFORE THE TURKISH CONQUEST OF THE BALKANS.

AT H-D-Z HEADQUARTERS THE PARTY'S REGIONAL VICE PRESIDENT, ZDRAVKO BATINIC, SAYS THE POST-WAR MUNICIPAL ADMINISTRATION SHOULD REFLECT THE REALITIES ON THE GROUND. HE SAYS, WE ARE TWO SEPARATE PEOPLES, EACH WITH ITS OWN RELIGION, CULTURE, AND VALUES. HE ADDS, THAT IS WHY WE MUST HAVE OUR OWN LOCAL GOVERNMENT, TO ENSURE THAT CROAT RIGHTS ARE PROTECTED.

A FEW BLOCKS AWAY, ON THE MUSLIM SIDE OF TOWN, ZAKIR MILANOVIC, OF THE RULING S-D-A, INSISTS GORNJI VAKUF MUST REMAIN A SINGLE MUNICIPALITY. HE SAYS, THE TOWNSPEOPLE HAVE SHARED INTERESTS AND A COMMON DESTINY, AND MUST REMAIN TOGETHER.

THE DISPUTE WILL NOT BE RESOLED WHEN BOSNIAN VOTERS GO TO THE POLLS SATURDAY. THE MUNICIPAL COMPONENT OF THE ELECTIONS WAS POSTPONED, AMID WIDESPREAD ABUSE IN THE REGISTRATION PROCESS. SERB, CROAT, AND MUSLIM LEADERS MANIPULATED THOSE DISPLACED BY THE WAR TO STRENGTHEN THEIR POLITICAL POWER BASES IN KEY TOWNS AND DISTRICTS.

IN GORNJI VAKUF, THE H-D-Z WAS SANCTIONED FOR AN ATTEMPT TO REGISTER NEARLY ONE-THOUSAND CROAT VOTERS FROM ELSEWHERE IN BOSNIA WHO HAD NO INTENTION OF LIVING IN THE TOWN.

THE POSTPONEMENT CAME AS A RELIEF TO ELECTION ORGANIZERS. ONE FOREIGN ANALYST SAYS IT GIVES THE TOWN A LITTLE MORE BREATHING SPACE, AND ALLOWS THE MUSLIMS AND CROATS TO GET ON WITH THE BUSINESS OF REBUILDING THEIR LIVES.

THERE IS A CLEAR RECOGNITION ON BOTH SIDES OF TOWN IT WILL TAKE AT LEAST A DECADE TO HEAL THE PSYCHOLOGICAL WOUNDS OF THE WAR. BUT CONTACTS ARE RESUMING. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS CROATS AND MUSLIMS MOVE FREELY ACROSS THE FORMER CONFRONTATION LINE.

A CROAT RESTAURANT WAITER SAYS HE GOES OCCASIONALLY TO SEE A FORMER MUSLIM GIRLFRIEND. A MUSLIM BUSINESSMAN SAYS HE MAKES PERIODIC BUYING TRIPS TO THE CROAT SIDE OF TOWN.

BUT THOSE WHO DO CROSS SAY THEY REMAIN WARY. NO SERIOUS INCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. BUT ONE MUSLIM SAYS THERE ARE TROUBLEMAKERS ON BOTH SIDES OF TOWN, AND THEY WANT NOTHING MORE THAN TO REKINDLE THE TENSIONS BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES.

BOTH MR. MILANOVIC OF THE MUSLIM-BASED S-D-A AND MR. BATINIC OF THE CROAT H-D-Z BELIEVE SHARED ECONOMIC INTERESTS WILL HELP BRING THE TWO COMMUNITIES BACK TOGETHER. TRADE HAS BEGUN, AND ONE CROAT RECONSTRUCTION COMPANY IS MAKING USE OF THE PLENTIFUL MANPOWER ON THE MUSLIM SIDE OF TOWN.

MR. BATINIC SAYS THE MORE THIS HAPPENS, THE BETTER THE SITUATION WILL BE. BUT HE VOWS THE MINORITY CROATS WILL MAINTAIN THEIR SEPARATE IDENTITY AND THEIR SEPARATE ADMINISTRATION. (SIGNED)
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12-Sep-96 12:57 PM EDT (1657 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] BOSNIA / SERBS (S) BY DAVID FOLEY (SARAJEVO)

INTRO: THE SENIOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIATOR IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, CARL BILDT, HAS STRONGLY CONDEMNED STATEMENTS FROM BOSNIAN-SERB LEADERS CALLING FOR SECESSION OF SERB AREAS FROM BOSNIA. DAVID FOLEY IN SARAJEVO REPORTS THE STATEMENT COMES AFTER SEVERAL CALLS FROM THE ACTING BOSNIAN-SERB PRESIDENT FOR SERB AREAS OF BOSNIA TO BE JOINED WITH SERBIA AFTER BOSNIAN ELECTIONS SATURDAY.

TEXT: IN A STATEMENT READ BY HIS SPOKESMAN, COLUM MURPHY, MR. BILDT ATTACKED REMARKS BY THE ACTING BOSNIAN SERB PRESIDENT, BILJANA PLAVSIC, CALLING FOR THE SECESSION OF SERB AREAS OF BOSNIA.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTIONS, THERE WILL BE NO SECESSION. SECESSION IS NOT AN OPTION, SECESSION IS NOT ON THE CARDS, SECESSION IS NOT ON THE AGENDA.

THE BOSNIAN SERBS ARE INSISTENT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY ACHIEVE THEIR OWN STATE, OR JOIN WITH NEIGHBORING SERBIA TO CREATE WHAT IS CALLED GREATER SERBIA.

THE RULING SERB PARTY, THE S-D-S, HAS ALREADY BEEN FINED 50-THOUAND DOLLARS FOR SUCH STATEMENTS. MR. BILDT, ALONG WITH THE HEAD OF ELECTIONS, ROBERT FROWICK, IS TO MEET LATER WITH MRS. PLAVSIC.

THIS IS THE LAST DAY FOR CAMPAIGNING IN BOSNIA BEFORE SATURDAY'S ELECTIONS AND THE RULING MUSLIM AND SERB POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE PLANNED LARGE RALLIES IN SARAJEVO AND PALE. (SIGNED)
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12-Sep-96 8:28 AM EDT (1228 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] BOSNIA PARTIES BY KYLE KING (SARAJEVO)

INTRO: WHEN BOSNIAN VOTERS GO TO THE POLLS SATURDAY IN THEIR COUNTRY'S FIRST POST-WAR ELECTION, MOST OF THE CANDIDATES FOR NATIONAL AND REGIONAL OFFICE WILL COME FROM THE MAIN MUSLIM, SERB, AND CROAT PARTIES. IN THE SECOND OF HIS SERIES OF REPORTS ON THE BOSNIAN'S ELECTIONS, V-O-A'S KYLE KING TAKES A LOOK AT THE POLITICAL GROUPS THAT DOMINATE BOSNIA'S EMERGING POLITICAL PROCESS.

TEXT: THE THREE POLITICAL PARTIES WHOSE TROOPS ONCE FOUGHT EACH OTHER DURING BOSNIA'S BLOODY 43-MONTH WAR, ARE NOW ENGAGED IN A POLITICAL STRUGGLE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE FUTURE OF THE COUNTRY.

ADVERTISEMENTS, LIKE THIS ONE PLAYED AT AN OPPOSITION POLITICAL RALLY IN SARAJEVO, HAVE BECOME THE NEW WEAPONS IN THE BATTLE FOR THE HEARTS AND MINDS OF THE COUNTRY.

IN BOSNIA'S MUSLIM-CROAT FEDERATION, ANALYSTS EXPECT PRESIDENT ALIJA IZETBEGOVIC'S PARTY OF DEMOCRATIC ACTION, THE S-D-A, TO DOMINATE THE VOTE.

FORMED IN 1990 AFTER MR. IZETBEGOVIC WAS RELEASED FROM JAIL AS A POLITICAL PRISONER, THE PARTY STOOD FOR A MULTI-ETHNIC SOCIETY DURING THE WAR. BUT, CRITICS SAY THE S-D-A HAS SINCE DONE LITTLE TO PROMOTE THE IDEA AND HAS TURNED INCREASINGLY AUTHORITARIAN AND ISLAMIC. THEY SAY THE PARTY IS UNFAIRLY USING ITS CONTROL OVER THE POLICE AND MEDIA TO ITS OWN ADVANTAGE.

WITHIN THE 49 PERCENT OF BOSNIA CONTROLLED BY THE SERBS, THE SERB DEMOCRATIC PARTY, OR S-D-A, USES ITS TIGHT CONTROL OVER THE POLICE AND MEDIA TO SILENCE ITS CRITICS.

LED BY ITS HARDLINE LEADER RADOVAN KARADZIC UNTIL HE WAS FORCED FROM POWER, THE PARTY'S GOAL IS AN ETHNICALLY PURE SERB STATE INDEPENDENT FROM BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA.

ANALYSTS SAY THE PARTY WILL LIKELY WIN A MAJORITY OF THE VOTE, BUT COULD FACE SOME DIFFICULTIES IN THE SERB PARLIAMENT IF THE MAIN SERB OPPOSITION GROUP, THE SOCIALIST PARTY OF THE SERB REPUBLIC, DOES WELL.

WITHIN THE CROAT AREAS OF BOSNIA, THE CROAT DEMOCRATIC UNION, OR H-D-Z, IS THE DOMINANT FORCE. THE PARTY, WHICH IS THE BOSNIAN WING OF THE RULING PARTY IN NEIGHBORING CROATIA, HAS MADE NO SECRET OF ITS HOSTILITY TO MUSLIMS AND ITS DESIRE TO BREAK AWAY FROM BOSNIA AND BECOME PART OF CROATIA.

DESPITE THE INFLUENCE OF THE THREE MAIN PARTIES, OPPOSITION FIGURES LIKE ZLATKO LAGUMDZIJA SAY VOTERS WANT AN ALTERNATIVE TO SEPARATIST IDEOLOGY.

WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING. THIS COUNTRY NEEDS A BREAK. THE WAR HAS STOPPED, THE COUNTRY HAS DISINTEGRATED, THE COUNTRY HAS FALLEN APART. WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING, WE HAVE TO OPEN THE PROCESS OF REINTEGRATION, DEMOCRATIZATION OF THIS COUNTRY AND IT CAN BE DONE ONLY ON THE IDEA OF A JOINT LIST.

MR. LAGUMDZIJA IS A MEMBER OF ONE OF THE FIVE PARTIES THAT HAVE JOINED FORCES TO FIELD A JOINT LIST OF CANDIDATES THAT THAT REJECT THE SEPARATIST IDEOLOGIES OF THE MAIN PARTIES.

ANALYSTS SAY THE JOINT LIST, AS WELL AS ANOTHER OPPOSITION GROUP, THE PARTY FOR BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA, HEADED BY FORMER BOSNIAN PRIME MINISTER HARIS SILAJDZIC, MAY NOT WIN THE PRESIDENCY IN THE BALLOTING, BUT WILL BE WELL POSITIONED FOR THE NEXT ELECTIONS.

AT A SARAJEVO RALLY HELD BY THE JOINT LIST, MICHAEL STEINER, THE DEPUTY TO HIGH REPRESENTATIVE CARL BILDT, SAID THAT DESPITE ITS PROBLEMS, HE IS PLEASED WITH THE WAY THE ELECTION IS GOING.

BUT WE HAVE TO SEE THE ALTERNATIVE. IF WE WOULDN'T HAVE HAD THIS CAMPAIGN, IF WE WOULDN'T HAVE HAD THESE ELECTIONS WE WOULD HAVE FACED A VACUUM AND I THINK THIS IS ALSO A PROCESS WHICH CREATES SOMETHING.

ANALYSTS AND THE OPPOSITION CANDIDATES THEMSELVES, SAY WHAT HAS BEEN CREATED BY THE CAMPAIGN IS THE BEGINNING OF A POLITICAL DIALOGUE. (SIGNED)
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12-Sep-96 9:07 AM EDT (1307 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] BOSNIA SERBS (L) BY DAVID FOLEY (SARAJEVO)

INTRO: THE FINAL DAY OF CAMPAIGNING FOR BOSNIAN ELECTIONS ON SATURDAY IS UNDERWAY. // OPT // THE RULING MUSLIM AND SERB PARTIES IN BOSNIA HAVE PLANNED MAJOR RALLIES FOR LATER IN THE DAY. // END OPT // BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS HAVE COME UNDER SHARP CRITICISM FROM THE SENIOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIATOR IN BOSNIA, WHO SAYS SERB CALLS FOR SECESSION FROM BOSNIA VIOLATE THE DAYTON PEACE AGREEMENT. MORE FROM DAVID FOLEY IN SARAJEVO.

TEXT:

CARS AND HORSE-DRAWN CARTS FILL THE MAIN STREET OF THE BOSNIAN CAPITAL. THIS PARADE FOR THE RULING MUSLIM "S-D-A" PARTY SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD SUPPORT FOR THE BOSNIAN PRESIDENT, ALIA IZETBEGOVIC. HIS PICTURE IS PLASTERED ON EVERY CAR AND HIS SUPPORTERS CHANT HIS FIRST NAME AND THE NAME OF HIS PARTY. MR. IZETBEGOVIC WILL ADDRESS A LARGE RALLY HERE THIS EVENING, AND THEN, AT MIDNIGHT, ALL POLITICAL CAMPAIGNING MUST END. VOTERS WILL HAVE A QUIET DAY ON FRIDAY TO CONSIDER THEIR CHOICES BEFORE THE POLLS OPEN SATURDAY MORNING.

CARL BILDT, THE SENIOR INTERNATIONAL MEDIATOR HERE, IS CALLING ON ALL BOSNIANS THINK HARD ABOUT THE CHOICE THEY FACE. READING A STATEMENT FROM MR. BILDT, HIS SPOKESMAN, COLUM MURPHY, SAYS THERE IS A CHOICE -- BETWEEN FASCISM AND DEMOCRACY.

IT IS TIME FOR EACH VOTER TO REFLECT CAREFULLY ON THE LAST FOUR YEARS, AND TO ASK HIMSELF WHAT HE REALLY WANTS FOR HIS OWN, OR HER OWN, CHILDREN.

PEOPLE IN BOSNIA KNOW THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE TO PARTIES WHOSE GOAL IS ETHNIC DIVISION. DESPITE LACK OF MEDIA FREEDOM AND OFFICIAL INTIMIDATION OF OPPOSITION PARTIES ON ALL SIDES, THE MESSAGE HAS GOT OUT -- BUT THE PEOPLE HERE ARE AFRAID. THE HATREDS LEFT OVER FROM FOUR YEARS OF BITTER WAR ARE STILL STRONG AND FRESH. DESPITE CALLS FOR CHANGE, THESE FEARFUL PEOPLE ARE LIKELY TO VOTE OVERWHELMINGLY FOR THE CURRENTLY RULING MUSLIM, SERB AND CROAT PARTIES.

THE RULING SERB S-D-S PARTY, // OPT // WHICH WILL IS ALSO HOLDING A LARGE RALLY IN PALE ON THURSDAY EVENING, // END OPT // HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN PROCLAIMING A FUTURE WHERE SERBS CAN FINALLY SEIZE THE FULL FRUITS OF ETHNIC CLEANSING. BOSNIAN SERBS LEADERS ARE CALLING FOR SECESSION OF SERB AREAS FROM BOSNIA, EITHER TO CREATE A NEW STATE OR TO JOIN WITH NEIGHBORING SERBIA. THE PARTY HAS ALREADY BEEN FINED 50-THOUSAND DOLLARS FOR SECESSIONIST COMMENTS, WHICH OFFICIALS SAY ARE A CLEAR VIOLATION OF THE DAYTON PEACE TREATY.

IN HIS STATEMENT MADE THROUGH SPOKESMAN COLUM MURPHY, MR. BILDT DISMISSES THE SERB VISION OF INDEPENDENCE AND SAYS ALL BOSNIANS CAN LIVE TOGETHER.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTIONS, THERE WILL BE NO SECESSION. SECESSION IS NOT AN OPTION, SECESSION IS NOT IN THE CARDS, SECESSION IS NOT ON THE AGENDA.

BUT SECESSION IS FIRMLY ON THE SERB AGENDA, AND IT IS LIKELY TO REQUIRE EVERY PRESSURE AND THREAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CAN MUSTER TO FORCE THE SERBS TO COMPLY WITH THE DAYTON ACCORD AFTER THE ELECTION. BUT INTERNATIONAL OFFICIALS FEAR EVEN THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. (SIGNED)
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12-Sep-96 10:18 AM EDT (1418 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] NATO IN BOSNIA: HOW LONG? BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: NATO OFFICIALS ARE NOW MAKING PLANS FOR PEACEKEEPING FORCES TO STAY IN BOSNIA FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER TWO YEARS INSTEAD OF STARTING TO WITHDRAW ON SCHEDULE IN LATE DECEMBER. WHAT THE UNITED STATES WILL DO IS UNCERTAIN. VOA'S ED WARNER ASKED THREE ANALYSTS HOW LONG THEY THINK NATO SHOULD REMAIN IN BOSNIA TO KEEP THE PEACE. // OPT // HERE IS THE FIRST OF TWO SCRIPTS. // END OPT //

TEXT: WE MUST BE REALISTIC, SAYS GENERAL WILLIAM ODUM, FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY. WE CANNOT BRING PEACE AND STABILITY TO BOSNIA IN LESS THAN TEN YEARS. MAYBE IT WILL TAKE 20 BECAUSE IN HIS OPINION, NATO HAS TO ACT AS A VIRTUAL GOVERNMENT:

IT HAS STOOD BACK FROM THAT ROLE AND LEFT IT PRETTY MUCH SEGREGATED UNDER THE CIVILIAN LEADERSHIP OF CARL BILDT AND THE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS. UNTIL IT GETS MORE FULLY INTEGRATED AND BECOMES THE AUTHORITY OF LAST RESORT AND MORE ACTIVE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT IN SUCH THINGS AS AGGRESSIVELY PURSUING WAR CRIMINALS AND OTHERS, AGGRESSIVELY FACILITATING REFUGEE RESETTLEMENT, MAYBE EVEN RUNNING SOME OF THESE SMALL TOWNS AND CITIES, THE SERBS, THE MUSLIMS AND THE CROATS WILL ALL HUNKER DOWN AND WAIT FOR IT TO LEAVE.

ONCE NATO LEAVES, SAYS GENERAL ODUM, THE GROUPS ARE ALL TOO LIKELY TO GO BACK TO FIGHTING.

ARNOLD KANTER, A SENIOR ASSOCIATE AT THE FOREIGN POLICY FORUM IN WASHINGTON, DOUBTS THAT NATO CAN EFFECTIVELY RUN BOSNIA. HE SAYS NATO TROOPS ARE NEITHER TRAINED NOR EQUIPPED FOR THAT KIND OF JOB:

IT REALLY DOES GET VERY MUCH INTO INTERACTION WITH CIVILIAN POPULATIONS AND CIVILIAN POLICE FUNCTIONS, WHICH IS A VERY SLIPPERY SLOPE AND DOES INCREASE THE CHANCES THAT THE POPULAR OPINION TOWARD THE NATO FORCES COULD TURN UGLY; THAT IS, NATO IS NOW VIEWED AS IMPARTIAL IN PART BECAUSE IT HAS A FAIRLY CIRCUMSCRIBED AND ALMOST ANTISEPTIC MISSION. YOU GET INVOLVED IN POLICE FUNCTIONS, AND THE ATTITUDE TOWARD THAT FORCE IS GOING TO CHANGE.

IF NATO EXPANDS ITS ROLE, CASUALTIES ARE INEVITABLE SAYS JOHN MEARSHEIMER, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO. AT PRESENT, NATO TROOPS ARE TOO WELL ARMED TO BE CHALLENGED, BUT IN TIME THAT COULD CHANGE:

THE LONGER WE STAY THERE, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT THERE WILL BE A TERRORIST ATTACK AGAINST US. AND I WOULD ARGUE THAT WITH THE PASSAGE OF TIME AS THE GLOW OF DAYTON WEARS OFF AND THE INDIVIDUAL ENTITIES INSIDE BOSNIA BECOME INCREASINGLY DISENCHANTED WITH THE OUTCOME OF DAYTON, THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ATTACK ON AMERICAN TROOPS -- A TERRORIST ATTACK - WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.

GENERAL ODUM SAYS SOME AMERICAN CASUALTIES CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT THEY CAN BE MINIMIZED. HE BELIEVES THAT NOTHING LESS THAN AN OCCUPATION OF BOSNIA IS CALLED FOR UNTIL A NEW MORE DEMOCRATC LEADERSHIP REPLACES THE OLD COMMUNIST ELITES STILL IN CHARGE. (SIGNED)
NEB/EW/CF
12-Sep-96 11:29 AM EDT (1529 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[07] NATO IN BOSNIA: HOW LONG? (2ND PART) BY ED WARNER (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: PLANS ARE BEING MADE FOR NATO FORCES TO REMAIN IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA FOR ANOTHER TWO-YEARS, INSTEAD OF LEAVING ON SCHEDULE IN LATE DECEMBER. IN THE SECOND OF TWO SCRIPTS, V-O-A'S ED WARNER ASKS THREE ANALYSTS HOW LONG THEY THINK NATO, INCLUDING U-S FORCES SHOULD STAY IN BOSNIA TO KEEP THE PEACE.

TEXT: BEWARE OF GETTING BOGGED DOWN IN BOSNIA, WARNS ARNOLD KANTER, A SENIOR ASSOCIATE AT THE FORUM FOR INTERNATIONAL POLICY IN WASHINGTON. HE SEES LITTLE JUSTIFICATION TO KEEP U-S FORCES IN BOSNIA MUCH BEYOND THE DECEMBER DEADLINE:

I DO NOT KNOW HOW YOU CHOOSE THE PLACES IN THE WORLD WHERE YOU ARE PREPARED TO STAY FOR AN INDETERMINATE TIME JUST TO KEEP THE PEACE. I DO NOT KNOW HOW YOU CHOOSE A BOSNIA OVER A BURUNDI OR OVER A SRI LANKA. WHAT IS IT ABOUT BOSNIA THAT WARRANTS THE DEPLOYMENT OF AMERICAN FORCES AND OTHER NATO FORCES FOR AN INDETERMINATE TIME AND AN INDETERMINATE COST? THERE ARE LOTS OF PLACES WHERE PEOPLE ARE KILLING ONE ANOTHER WHERE WE WOULD HAVE FAIR SHOT AT STOPPING THAT KILLING. HOW DO YOU PICK?

BOSNIA DIFFERS DRAMATICALLY FROM OTHER AREAS OF CONFLICT, INSISTS GENERAL WILLIAM ODUM, FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY IN WASHINGTON. HE SAYS THE UNITED STATES CANNOT INTERVENE EVERYWHERE AND MUST SELECT THE OCCASIONS WITH CARE:

WHILE WE MAY HAVE A MORAL OBLIGATION TO GO TO SOMALIA, RWANDA, TIBET AND OTHER PLACES, WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH POWER TO GO TO ALL OF THESE. AND SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH POWER, I DO NOT THINK WE ARE MORALLY RESPONSIBLE IF WE DO NOT GO. WE JUST HAVE TO MAKE SELECTIONS, AND WE SHOULD TRY TO MAKE THOSE WHERE THERE IS AN OVERLAP OF BOTH OUR STRATEGIC AND MORAL INTERESTS. AND IF WE HAVE POWER LEFT OVER TO GO TO AREAS WHERE WE HAVE NO STRATEGIC INTEREST, THEN WE MAY WANT TO CONSIDER THAT.

GENERAL ODUM SAYS THE BALKAN CONFLICT COULD JEOPARDIZE THE PEACE OF EUROPE, WHICH IS DEFINITELY IN THE AMERICAN INTEREST TO MAINTAIN.

PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO JOHN MEARSHEIMER, SAYS THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE UNITED STATES IS WILLING TO COMMIT TO BOSNIA. HE SAYS THERE IS NO QUESTION THE UNITED STATES, WITH EUROPEAN HELP, CAN KEEP THE PEACE:

THE PROBLEM IS THAT THAT WOULD REQUIRE A LOT OF FORCES. THE BRITISH AND THE FRENCH AND NUMEROUS OTHER EUROPEAN AND NON-EUROPEAN STATES MAINTAINED TROOPS - U-N PEACEKEEPERS - IN BOSNIA LONG BEFORE THE AMERICANS CAME. BUT THEY WERE UNABLE TO KEEP THE PEACE BECAUSE THERE WERE NOT ENOUGH OF THEM AND THEY WERE NOT HEAVILY ARMED. IF YOU BRING IN 20-PLUS-THOUSAND AMERICANS AND LOTS OF WELL ARMED EUROPEANS TO BOOT, YOU ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO KEEP THE PEACE. THE QUESTION IS ARE WE WILLING TO DO THAT?

PROFESSOR MEARSHEIMER SAYS AMERICANS ARE NOT. GENERAL ODUM SAYS AMERICANS MUST BE. OTHERS WOULD OFFER A MORE MODEST COMMITMENT OF TROOPS THAN THE GENERAL. A DEFINITIVE ANSWER IS STILL AWAITED. (SIGNED)
NEB/RAE
12-Sep-96 11:52 AM EDT (1552 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[08] SLOVENIA EYES NATO (L-O) BY DON HENRY (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: SLOVENIA'S DEFENSE MINISTER PREDICTS HIS COUNTRY WILL BE PART OF THE FIRST WAVE OF NATO ENLARGEMENT TO THE EAST, WITH HUNGARY, POLAND, AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC, IN WHAT HE CALLS THE NEAR FUTURE. V-O-A'S DON HENRY REPORTS THE VISITING OFFICIAL TOLD REPORTERS IN WASHINGTON SLOVENIA IS MODERNIZING ITS DEFENSE SYSTEM TO MEET NATO STANDARDS.

TEXT: DEFENSE MINISTER JELKO KACIN SAYS HIS COUNTRY WOULD LIKE TO SERVE AS A BRIDGE SUPPORTING NATO EXPANSION TO THE EAST IN GENERAL, AND SPECIFICALLY LINKING HUNGARY AND ITALY.

HE SAYS BECAUSE SLOVENIA WAS NEVER IN THE WARSAW PACT DURING ITS YEARS AS A PART OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA, HE DOES NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OBSTACLES FROM RUSSIA REGARDING SLOVENIA'S NATO MEMBERSHIP.

WE BELIEVE THAT WE ARE QUALIFIED TO BE AMONG THE FIRST COUNTRIES, IN THE FIRST WAVE, OF (NATO) ENLARGEMENT. WE ARE READY TO PAY OUR BILLS. WE ARE MODERNIZING ESPECIALLY AIR DEFENSE, COMMUNICATIONS. COASTAL DEFENSE AND GROUND SUPPORT. WE ARE IN VERY CLOSE RELATIONS WITH ALL THE NATO COUNTRIES. AND GENERALLY SPEAKING, ALL OF THESE COUNTRIES SUPPORT THE COMING (INCLUSION) OF SLOVENIA IN THE FIRST WAVE OF NATO ENLARGEMENT.

THE SLOVENIAN DEFENSE MINISTER, WHOSE VISIT INCLUDES A MEETING WITH U-S DEFENSE SECRETARY WILLIAM PERRY, SAYS NATO EXPANSION SHOULD SERVE TO STABILIZE THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL EUROPEAN AREA. THEREFORE HE SEES NO NEED FOR SLOVENIA TO INCREASE ITS DEFENSE EXPENDITURE IN AN ENLARGED NATO. NOR DOES HE BELIEVE THERE IS A NEED TO SEND FOREIGN TROOPS INTO ANY NEW NATO COUNTRIES, OR ESTABLISH NATO BASES IN THEM.

SLOVENIA CELEBRATED ITS FIFTH-YEAR OF INDEPENDENCE FROM YUGOSLAVIA IN JUNE, AND MR. KACIN SAYS MANY SLOVENES ARE EAGER TO JOIN NATO, BUT HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT BECOMING A FULL MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

MUCH MORE PEOPLE TODAY ARE SUPPORTING THE NATO ENLARGEMENT AND OUR MEMBERSHIP IN NATO THAN OUR MEMBERSHIP IN E-U, BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE AFRAID ABOUT THE FUTURE CHANGES ON THE DOMESTIC MARKET. THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AGRICULTURE AND SO ON, SO THE E-U SKEPTICS ARE PRESENT IN SLOVENIA

THERE IS NO OTHER WAY. WE DO NOT WANT TO BE A SELF-SUFFICIENT SMALL STATE ON THE SUNNY SIDE OF THE ALPS. WE JUST WANT TO BE A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY, AND THAT MEANS OUR GLOBAL INTEGRATION WILL INCLUDE NATO, W-E-U AND E-U.

REGARDING BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, HE SAYS SLOVENIA NEVER WILL SEND TROOPS THERE, ALTHOUGH SLOVENES MIGHT SERVE IN LOGISTICAL SUPPORT OR HEADQUARTERS ROLES IN THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE FORCE OPERATION. HE SAYS THE BOSNIAN SITUATION HAS STABILIZED TO THE POINT WHERE FOREIGN INVESTMENTS AND OTHER ASSISTANCE ARE NEEDED AS THE NEXT PHASE OF RECOVERY FROM CIVIL WARFARE. (SIGNED)
NEB/DOH/RAE
12-Sep-96 12:26 PM EDT (1626 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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