Voice of America, 9 July 1996

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From: The Voice of America <gopher://gopher.voa.gov>

CONTENTS

[01] TUESDAY'S EDITORIALS BY DAN NOBLE (WASHINGTON)

[02] BOSNIA/GRAVES (S-ONLY) BY DAVID FOLEY (SARAJEVO)

[03] CONFLICT RESOLUTION: BOSNIA'S PSYCHIC WOUNDS BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

[04] RUSSIA: ELECTION AFTERMATH BY FRANCIS RONALDS (WASHINGTON)

[05] U-S-BOSNIA (S ONLY) BY RON PEMSTEIN (STATE DEPARTMENT)

[06] U-S/BOSNIA ARRESTS (S ONLY) BY VICTOR BEATTIE (WASHINGTON)

[01] TUESDAY'S EDITORIALS BY DAN NOBLE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: AMERICA'S OLDEST CIVIL RIGHTS ORGANIZATION -- THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLORED PEOPLE -- IS HOLDING ITS 87TH ANNUAL CONVENTION IN CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA. THE GATHERING IS THE SUBJECT OF EDITORIAL COMMENT IN SEVERAL OF TODAY'S LEADING U-S NEWSPAPERS. OTHER SUBJECTS INCLUDE ENCOURAGING NEWS ABOUT THE TREATMENT OF AIDS AND THE SAFETY RECORD OF AMERICA'S SPACE PROGRAM. HERE WITH TUESDAY'S EDITION OF U.S. EDITORIAL DIGEST IS _______________________.

TEXT: KWEISI MFUME ASSUMED THE PRESIDENCY OF THE NAACP (PRON.: N - DOUBLE A - C- P) IN FEBRUARY. SPEAKING AT HIS FIRST CONVENTION IN HIS NEW ROLE, MR. MFUME URGED THE MEMBERS OF HIS TROUBLED GROUP TO "FIGHT DISCRIMINATION, NOT EACH OTHER." AS THE BALTIMORE SUN POINTS OUT ON THE NEWSPAPER'S EDITORIAL PAGE, THE NAACP LEADER WANTS THE GROUP TO CONCENTRATE ON, WHAT IT CALLS, "THE REAL FIGHT."

VOICE: "UNFORTUNATELY, NOT EVERYONE AGREED WITH HIM. THE ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN DIVIDED IN RECENT YEARS OVER THE TWIN ISSUES OF LEADERSHIP AND DIRECTION. DURING HIS BRIEF 16-MONTH TENURE, FORMER EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BENJAMIN F. CHAVIS JR. UPSET NAACP STALWARTS WITH HIS OVERTURES TO YOUNG FIREBRANDS AND RADICALS SUCH AS NATION OF ISLAM LEADER LOUIS FARRAKHAN. MR. CHAVIS WAS FINALLY FIRED IN 1994 FOR USING ORGANIZATION MONEY TO PAY OFF A WOMAN WHO ACCUSED HIM OF SEXUAL HARASSMENT. THEN ACCUSATIONS OF INAPPROPRIATE SPENDING AND WASTE WERE LEVELED AT NAACP BOARD CHAIRMAN WILLIAM F. GIBSON, WHO WAS SUBSEQUENTLY DEFEATED BY MYRLIE EVERS-WILLIAMS IN HIS BID FOR RE-ELECTION LAST YEAR. MR. MFUME URGED NAACP MEMBERS TO GET PAST DISAGREEMENTS DURING THE TENURES OF MR. CHAVIS AND MR. GIBSON.... IN PARTICULAR, MR. MFUME WANTS TO REACH OUT TO YOUNG PEOPLE AND SHOW THEM WHY AN NAACP IS STILL ESSENTIAL. IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO TELL THEM DISCRIMINATION PERSISTS. THE NAACP MUST PROVE IT REMAINS A FORCE THAT CAN HELP END DISCRIMINATION."

TEXT: SALIM MUWAKKIL, A CONTRIBUTING COLUMNIST FOR THE CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, ALSO APPEARS IN TODAY'S EDITION OF THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER. MR. MUWAKKIL COMMENTS ON THE CALL BY SOME BLACK AMERICAN LEADERS TO -- IN HIS WORDS -- "FORGE A UNITED POLITICAL PRESENCE OUT OF A LANDMARK CONVENTION TO FOLLOW THE MAJOR PARTIES' CONVENTIONS THIS SUMMER."

VOICE: "THE IDEA FOR A BLACK POLITICAL CONVENTION HAS BEEN PERCOLATING AMONG AFRICAN AMERICAN ACTIVISTS FOR MANY YEARS. THE REPUBLICAN ONSLAUGHT HAS GENERATED A NEW SPIRIT OF URGENCY. THE DEMOCRATS ARE MOVING STEADILY RIGHTWARD, TRYING TO RECAPTURE THEIR DECLINING WHITE CONSTITUENCY WHILE TAKING AFRICAN AMERICANS FOR GRANTED EVEN MORE BLATANTLY THAN BEFORE. TO COUNTER THIS TIDE, THEORISTS...URGE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INDEPENDENT RAINBOW PARTY THAT WILL CHAMPION THE INTERESTS OF AFRICAN AMERICANS... MANY ASK WHY BLACK AMERICANS SHOULD CONTINUE SUPPORTING A DEMOCRATIC ADMINISTRATION THAT HAS CAPITULATED SO ABJECTLY TO THE RIGHT-WING ZEITGEIST. THE ANSWER, OF COURSE, IS THAT IT IS THE LESSER OF TWO EVILS. AND THAT DEPRESSINGLY FAMILIAR REFRAIN IS WHY WE NEED TO ESTABLISH A STRONGER INDEPENDENT PRESENCE IN AMERICAN POLITICS."

TEXT: TODAY'S HARTFORD COURANT IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE SAFETY OF AMERICAN TROOPS IN SAUDI ARABIA. THE CONNECTICUT DAILY, WHICH CALLS ITSELF "THE OLDEST CONTINUOUSLY PUBLISHED NEWSPAPER IN AMERICA," SAYS THAT "SAD TO SAY, MORE AMERICAN LIVES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOST BECAUSE NO SECURITY PLAN CAN BE FOOLPROOF AGAINST SUICIDE BOMBERS."

VOICE: "THERE IS AN ANSWER, AND IT'S CALLED SELF-RELIANCE AND CONSERVATION. REMEMBER LOWERING THE SPEED LIMIT...MANUFACTURING SMALLER AND ENERGY-EFFICIENT ENGINES...OFFERING TAX BREAKS FOR SOLAR PANELS AND INSULATION...EXPANDING RESEARCH TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF ENERGY...CREATING THE FEDERAL DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY? OUR SOLDIERS WILL CONTINUE RISKING THEIR LIVES IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA TO DEFEND FEUDAL GOVERNMENTS BECAUSE OUR GOVERNMENT -- OUR SOCIETY -- HAS DETERMINED IT'S CHEAPER TO MAKE SUCH A SACRIFICE THAN TO CURB OUR BIG APPETITE FOR ENERGY. THAT'S A SOBERING MESSAGE IN THE MONTH WE CELEBRATE THE DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE."

TEXT: THE 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AIDS IS MEETING IN VANCOUVER, CANADA. PHYSICIANS, RESEARCHERS AND SCIENTISTS ARE DISCUSSING WHAT HAS BEEN LEARNED ABOUT THE DISEASE AND THE PRECIPITATING VIRUS, H-I-V, THAT NOW AFFLICTS 25 MILLION PEOPLE WORLDWIDE. THE LOS ANGELES TIMES TELLS READERS THAT "NOW, THERE IS GUARDED HOPE OF BRINGING THE AIDS PANDEMIC UNDER CONTROL, THOUGH THERE REMAINS NO CURE."

VOICE: "THE BIGGEST NEWS: THE EFFECTIVENESS OF COMBINING A NEW GENERATION OF H-I-V-FIGHTING DRUGS WITH OLDER REVERSE TRANSCRIPTASE INHIBITORS SUCH AS 3-T-C AND A-Z-T. ACTING IN CONCERT, THE DRUGS HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REDUCED H-I-V VIRAL CONCENTRATIONS TO LEVELS THAT CANNOT BE DETECTED WITH EVEN THE MOST SENSITIVE TECHNIQUES. THIS DEVELOPMENT ALLOWS THE BODY'S IMMUNE SYSTEM TO REBOUND TO A HEALTHIER STATUS, WHICH CAN PROMISE A LONGER LIFE TO AIDS VICTIMS... THERE IS STILL NO CURE FOR AIDS, AND THE SEARCH FOR A VACCINE CONTINUES. [OPT] MEANWHILE, THE NEW AIDS DRUGS COST UP TO 16-THOUSAND DOLLARS A YEAR. THAT LEVEL OF TREATMENT IS INACCESSIBLE FOR MANY AMERICANS, NOT TO MENTION AIDS PATIENTS IN DEVELOPING NATIONS. [END OPT] THE LESSONS HERE INCLUDE THE CONTINUED NEED FOR EARLY DETECTION AND H-I-V TESTS ON AN ANNUAL BASIS FOR EVERYONE. MOST IMPORTANT, PEOPLE MUST BE TAUGHT HOW TO AVOID THE DISEASE, PARTICULARLY TEENAGERS, WHO ACCOUNT FOR 25% OF NEW HIV INFECTIONS IN THE U.S. LEARN AND LIVE."

TEXT: THE SPACE SHUTTLE COLUMBIA RETURNED TO EARTH ON SUNDAY, MARKING WHAT THE ORLANDO (FLORIDA) SENTINAL CALLS "NOT ONLY THE LONGEST MISSION EVER BUT THE 53RD SAFE SHUTTLE RETURN SINCE THE CHALLENGER TRAGEDY OF 1986."

VOICE: "IT'S A RECORD OF WHICH THE NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION SHOULD BE PROUD. MORE THAN PRIDE IS AT STAKE, THOUGH. SAFETY BELONGS AT THE TOP OF THE LIST IN MAKING DECISIONS REGARDING THE CONDUCT AND FUTURE OF THE SPACE PROGRAM. IS SAFETY GETTING THE ATTENTION IT DESERVES, ESPECIALLY AS NASA RESTRUCTURES AND TURNS OVER MORE OF ITS SHUTTLE OPERATIONS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR? ACCORDING TO NASA OFFICIALS, YES. THEY INDICATED CATEGORICALLY MONDAY THAT SAFETY IS THE NUMBER ONE PRIORITY BEHIND ALL THEIR PROGRAMS, AND THAT UPGRADING AND ASSESSMENT OF THE SHUTTLE, ESPECIALLY, IS ONGOING. ONE HOPES SO."

TEXT: AND WITH THAT, WE END THIS EDITION OF THE U-S EDITORIAL DIGEST FOR TUESDAY, JULY 9TH.
NEB/DN/PCH
09-Jul-96 10:55 AM EDT (1455 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[02] BOSNIA/GRAVES (S-ONLY) BY DAVID FOLEY (SARAJEVO)

INTRO: WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATORS IN BOSNIA ON TUESDAY HAVE UNCOVERED SEVERAL BODIES IN A MASS GRAVE NEAR SREBRENICA. THE EXPERTS SAY THERE MAY BE SEVERAL LAYERS OF BODIES AT THE SITE, WHERE THE BOSNIAN SERBS ALLEGEDLY MASSACRED MUSLIMS AFTER SREBRENICA FELL TO THE BOSNIAN SERB ARMY IN JULY LAST YEAR. DAVID FOLEY REPORTS FROM SARAJEVO.

TEXT: INVESTIGATORS HAVE UNCOVERED TWO SKULLS AND THE PARTS OF SEVERAL BODIES AS THEY BEGAN CLEARING AWAY THE THIN LAYER OF SOIL OVER THE GRAVE. THE CHIEF FORENSIC EXPERT AT THE SITE SAYS THERE APPEARS TO BE SEVERAL LAYERS OF BODIES IN THE GRAVE. THE INVESTIGATORS SAY THEY BELIEVE THE MUSLIMS WERE BROUGHT TO THE SITE NEXT TO A REMOTE DIRT ROAD, BEFORE THEY WERE SHOT BY THE BOSNIAN SERBS, WHO THEN PUSHED THE BODIES OFF THE ROAD.

USING PAINSTAKING METHODS TO COLLECT AS MUCH EVIDENCE AS POSSIBLE FROM THE SCENE, THE INVESTIGATORS SAY THEY WILL UNCOVER A WIDER AREA OF THE GRAVE TO REVEAL COMPLETE BODIES BEFORE ANY OF THE REMAINS ARE REMOVED. MANY OF THE REMAINS ARE NOW ONLY BONES, WHILE SOME OF THE BODIES APPEAR TO BE CLOTHED AND ARE NOT ENTIRELY DECOMPOSED.

THE EXPERTS SAY THEY'LL BE ABLE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW THE PEOPLE IN THE GRAVE DIED IF COMPLETE BODIES CAN BE REMOVED. THE OFFICIALS WILL EXHUME ALL OF THE MASS GRAVE, WHICH COULD CONTAIN HUNDREDS OF BODIES, BEFORE MOVING ON TO SEVERAL OTHER MASS GRAVES THAT HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED AROUND SREBRENICA. (SIGNED)
NEB/DF/PCF/MMK
09-Jul-96 2:15 PM EDT (1815 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[03] CONFLICT RESOLUTION: BOSNIA'S PSYCHIC WOUNDS BY PAMELA TAYLOR (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: WHETHER THE PEOPLE OF BOSNIA UNITE OR DIVIDE EVEN FURTHER ALONG ETHNIC LINES, MOST PEOPLE AGREE IT WILL TAKE DECADES, IF NOT GENERATIONS, FOR THEIR PSYCHIC WOUNDS TO HEAL. BUT THANKS TO THE WORK OF A TIRELESS GROUP OF HUMANITARIAN WORKERS -- DOCTORS, PSYCHOLOGISTS AND SOCIAL WORKERS -- THERE IS HOPE THE PEOPLE OF BOSNIA MAY RECOVER MORE QUICKLY THAN VICTIMS OF PREVIOUS BALKAN

TAPE: CUT # 1 VOICES IN COUNSELLING CENTER RUNS [:27] "(SERBO-CROATIAN/INTERPRETER) HE SAYS THERE WAS DIRECT SHELLING ON THE BUILDING. NO DIRECT HITS ON THEM BUT ALL AROUND AND UNDER. ABOUT 40 SHELLS LANDED IN THEIR BUILDING. TWO WOMEN WERE HIT. THERE WERE A LOT OF CHILDREN KILLED."

TEXT: THE STORY BEING TOLD AT THE COUNSELLING CENTER WAS A FAMILIAR ONE TO PSYCHO-SOCIAL WORKERS: A FAMILY COWERING IN THE BASEMENT OF THEIR HIGH-RISE APARTMENT HOUSE AS BOMBS DROPPED ALL AROUND THEM. COUNTING THOSE WHO DIDN'T LIVE THROUGH IT WAS BAD ENOUGH, BUT WHEN THE DEAD WERE CHILDREN, AS WAS SO OFTEN THE CASE, IT BECAME A TRAUMA IMPOSSIBLE TO COMPREHEND. (MS.) DANA RUBICANIN, A YOUNG VOLUNTEER WITH A GROUP CALLED 'THE NEW BOSNIA FUND', WORKS WITH REFUGEE CHILDREN WHO HAVE COME TO SARAJEVO FROM ETHNICALLY CLEANSED VILLAGES IN EASTERN BOSNIA. SHE SAID IN CASES WHERE CHILDREN HAVE TOTALLY WITHDRAWN OR DEVELOPED CLASSIC SYMPTOMS OF TRAUMA, THEY OFTEN RESPOND POSITIVELY TO WHAT'S CALLED 'MUSICAL THERAPY'. SHE TOLD THE STORY ABOUT ONE CHILD WHO HAD DEVELOPED A BAD STUTTER:

TAPE: CUT # 2 RUBICANIN RUNS [:41] "ONE SAD STORY ABOUT A LITTLE GIRL WHOSE FAMILY LIVED ON THE FRONT LINES IN SARAJEVO AND SHE WENT TO ONE OF THOSE OUTSIDE TOILETS WHEN THE FIRST SHELLING STARTED AND SHE WAS CAUGHT THERE. SHE WAS PROBABLY ABOUT SIX YEARS OLD THEN AND FROM THAT MOMENT ON SHE STARTED TO STUTTER. THROUGH MUSICAL THERAPY, THE GIRL NEVER STUTTERS. SHE STARTS SINGING SONGS, SINGING SONGS THAT REMIND THEM OF THEIR HOMELAND, OF THEIR HOME AND OF PAST TIMES; AND THE WOMEN, ITS A VERY MOVING TIME. WE'RE NOT ALLOWED TO PARTICIPATE, IT'S A VERY CLOSED GROUP. APPARENTLY THE WOMEN START CRYING AND START TALKING ABOUT WHAT THEY REMEMBER, ABOUT THEIR PAST."

TEXT: PSYCHO-TRAUMA COUNSELORS SAY GETTING PEOPLE TO TALK ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED TO THEM IS 50 PERCENT OF THE CURE. DUTCH PSYCHOLOGIST KAZ DE JONG, WITH THE SARAJEVO OFFICE OF 'DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS', WORRIES THAT AID MONEY IS BEING SHIFTED AWAY FROM SOCIAL PROGRAMS AND CONCENTRATED ON RECONSTRUCTION PROJECTS:

TAPE: CUT # 3 DE JONG RUNS [:43] "THIS COUNTRY CAN ONLY START TO PRODUCE AND LIVE AGAIN BY ESTABLISHING NORMAL MENTAL HEALTH SYSTEM AND THAT'S WHY THE WANT TO INVEST IN THIS. THEY HAVE THE IDEA THAT YOU CAN BUILD A HOUSE, BUT IF IN THE HOUSE THE PEOPLE ARE QUARRELING ALL THE TIME, FIGHTING WITH THE NEIGHBORS, OR THE KIDS DON'T GO TO SCHOOL, OR THE MAN IS UNEMPLOYED OR BEATING THE WOMAN, THEN YOU HAVE A NICE HOUSE, BUT WHAT ELSE? PEOPLE HAVE LIVED FROM DAY TO DAY AND IT IS VERY CONFUSING FOR THEM AT THIS MOMENT THAT THERE IS SOMETHING LIKE A FUTURE. THEY CAN'T COPE WITH THAT AT THIS STAGE."

TEXT: DR. DE JONG SAID IT IS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN TRAUMATIZED BY A WAR TO RECOGNIZE THAT POST-TRAUMATIC STRESS IS NOT A DISEASE BUT RATHER A NORMAL REACTION TO ABNORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES. ONE WAY MANY BOSNIANS ARE LEARNING THIS IS BY LISTENING TO A CALL-IN RADIO SHOW SPONSORED BY DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS. DR. DE JONG SAYS SIMPLY HEARING THAT OTHERS HAVE SIMILAR SYMPTOMS OF SLEEPLESSNESS OR WHATEVER IS IN ITSELF A STEP TOWARD HEALING. THEN, HE SAYS, THEY CAN HEAR A TRAINED SPECIALIST'S SUGGESTIONS FOR WAYS TO DEAL WITH THESE SYMPTOMS.

DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS IS SHIFTING ITS WORK THROUGHOUT THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA AWAY FROM SUPPLYING MEDICINES AND TOWARD TRAUMA COUNSELLING. SO FAR, THE GOVERNMENT IN BELGRADE HAS RESISTED OPENING UP TRAUMA CENTERS -- AS DID, UNTIL RECENTLY, OFFICIALS IN THE SERB ENTITY OF REPUBLIKA SRPSKA. BUT DR. DE JONG SAYS THEY WERE EVENTUALLY GIVEN PERMISSION TO SET UP A TRAUMA CENTER IN BANJA LUKA:

TAPE: [OPT] CUT # 4 DE JONG RUNS [:27] "WE STARTED A MENTAL HEALTH PROGRAM ABOUT TWO YEARS AGO AND AT THAT STAGE, THEY WERE NOT READY FOR IT. WE GOT COMMENTS LIKE, 'WE DON'T HAVE THOSE PROBLEMS', FROM MINISTRY (OFFICIALS). (BUT) THE LOCAL PEOPLE KNOW THEY HAVE THESE PROBLEMS. I DID AN ASSESSMENT IN BANJA LUKA AND NOW PEOPLE ACKNOWLEDGE POST-TRAUMATIC STRESS, ESPECIALLY AMONG REFUGEES AND MINORITIES IN THAT AREA."

TEXT: DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS IS ONE OF THE FEW HUMANITARIAN ORGANIZATIONS WHICH HAS OPERATED IN THE BANJA LUKA REGION SINCE THE WAR BROKE OUT IN 1992. (MS) SONDRINE CHOPIN, WHO WORKS IN THE LOCAL OFFICE THERE, SAYS INSURING THAT HOSPITALS AND HEALTH CENTERS HAVE ADEQUATE MEDICINE HAS ALWAYS BEEN THE MAIN PRIORITY:

TAPE: CUT # 5 CHOPIN RUNS [:] "WE DON'T HAVE ANY PROBLEM GETTING MEDICINE NOW, ITS COMING FROM HOLLAND. BECAUSE WHEN IT WAS DIFFICULT TO GET THE MEDICINE IN FROM SPLIT, OR ZAGREB WE GET IT IN BY PLANE FROM BANJA LUKA AIRPORT. BUT THESE PEOPLE ARE VERY GOOD. THEY HAVE GOOD PHARMACISTS, GOOD DOCTORS, GOOD DENTISTS. IT'S JUST A MATTER OF MATERIAL - LACK OF MATERIAL. AND YET ITS EASIER TO GIVE MEDICINE (THAN TO DO COUNSELLING) AND I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THAT BECAUSE WE ARE NOT HERE TO CREATE DRUG ADDICTS."

TEXT: MS. CHOPIN SAYS THOSE NEEDING TRAUMA COUNSELLING IN THE BANJA LUKA REGION ARE MAINLY REFUGEES WHO HAVE BEEN ETHNICALLY CLEANSED FROM THE KRAJINA AREA IN A BRUTAL CROAT OFFENSIVE TO RETAKE THE TERRITORY LAST YEAR. BUT, SHE SAYS, MANY OF THE KRAJINA REFUGEES CAME TO BANJA LUKA FROM SERBIA WHERE THEY HAD INITIALLY FLED, THINKING THEY WOULD BE WELCOME THERE. ALSO NEEDING COUNSELLING, SAYS MS. CHOPIN, ARE DEMOBILIZED SOLDIERS WHO MAY HAVE BEEN TRAUMATIZED BY WHAT THEY HAVE SEEN OR DONE. (SIGNED)
NEB/PAM/PCH
09-Jul-96 9:44 AM EDT (1344 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[04] RUSSIA: ELECTION AFTERMATH BY FRANCIS RONALDS (WASHINGTON)

ANNCR: THE VOICE OF AMERICA PRESENTS INTERNATIONAL FOCUS, A WEEKLY PROGRAM THAT PRESENTS A VARIETY OF VIEWS ON PARTICULAR ISSUES AND EVENTS OF GLOBAL CONCERN AND INTEREST. CART: THEME UP, ESTABLISH, UNDER HOST: IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LAST WEEK, THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE DECISIVELY REJECTED THE COMMUNIST PAST. BUT WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT? WILL PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN'S REFORM PROGRAM MOVE FORWARD, OR WILL THE LEFTIST MAJORITY IN THE DUMA, THE LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT, BLOCK THE LEGAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS NEEDED TO ESTABLISH AN EFFECTIVE COMMERCIAL CODE AND JUDICIAL SYSTEM? WILL POLITICAL STABILITY PLUS ECONOMIC REFORM ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND REVERSE THE FLOW OF RUSSIAN CAPITAL ABROAD, ESTIMATED AT TWO-BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR? WILL THE NEW ENTREPRENEURIAL CLASS CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE PRIVATE ECONOMY WHILE IT AVOIDS PAYING TAXES, AS IT HAS DONE SO FAR? WHEN PRIME MINISTER VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN PRESENTS HIS NEW CABINET TO PARLIAMENT NEXT MONTH, WILL THE DUMA APPROVE IT, AS NOW APPEARS LIKELY? AND WHOM WILL HE DRAW INTO HIS NEW GOVERNMENT TO REFLECT THE NEW POLITICAL REALITIES? JUST HOW FAR HAS RUSSIA TRAVELLED ON THE ROAD TO DEMOCRACY, AND HOW FAR DOES IT STILL HAVE TO GO? I'M FRANK RONALDS, AND TODAY I'LL BE FOCUSING ON THE ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS. CART: THEME, UP BRIEFLY AND UNDER HOST: THE ASTONISHING POLITICAL COMEBACK OF BORIS YELTSIN DOMINATED THIS YEAR'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN. WHEN HE ANNOUNCED THAT HE WOULD RUN FOR REELECTION ON FEBRUARY 15TH, RUSSIAN POLLS PUT HIM IN FOURTH OR FIFTH PLACE, WITH FEWER THAT TEN PERCENT OF THE ELECTORATE FAVORING HIM. THE 65-YEAR-OLD PRESIDENT, WHO SUFFERED TWO HEART ATTACKS LAST YEAR, TURNED INTO A DYNAMO AS HIS CAMPAIGN DEVELOPED. LEON ARON, A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE IN WASHINGTON, D-C, IS JUST FINISHING A YELTSIN BIOGRAPHY:

TAPE: CUT ONE -- ARON "THE RESULTS OF THE ELECTIONS ARE BOTH A PERSONAL TRIUMPH FOR BORIS YELTSIN AND A VERY BIG HISTORIC STEP FOR THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE. HE WAS BARELY IN SINGLE DIGITS, OR MAYBE LOW TEENS, IN JANUARY. HE SHOT UP ALL THE WAY TO 54 PERCENT. THAT WAS DUE TO A VERY SKILLFUL MESSAGE, WHICH IN ESSENCE WAS: 'CHOOSE ME, OR RETURN TO THE PAST; PROTECT LIBERTY AND DEMOCRACY.' AS FAR AS THE RUSSIA PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED, THIS WAS A BELATED REFERENDUM ON THE COUNTRY'S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEM. I'M SAYING BELATED, BECAUSE IN AUGUST, 1991, THE OLD SYSTEM COLLAPSED. BUT APART FROM ONE REFERENDUM IN APRIL OF 1993 AND TWO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, THE RUSSIANS HAVE NEVER REALLY CONFRONTED A CHOICE, A VERY CLEAR-CUT CHOICE, A FORK IN THE ROAD. NOW THEY HAVE, AND THEY HAVE CHOSEN THEIR PATH." HOST: SIMILAR COMEBACKS, MR. ARON SAYS, HAVE PUNCTUATED BORIS YELTSIN'S CAREER:

TAPE: CUT TWO -- ARON "HIS REMARKABLE COMEBACK CONFIRMS A VERY CURIOUS PATTERN OF HIS PERSONAL AND POLITICAL PERSONA. HE TENDS TO BE REVIVED BY A CRISIS AS IF BY AN INFUSION OF NEGATIVE ENERGY. WITH HIS BACK TO THE WALL, HE DOES HIS BEST AND HE BEGINS TO RELY ON HIS USUALLY VERY SUBSTANTIAL POLITICAL INSTINCTS AS TO WHERE THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE WANT TO GO. THE COMEBACK HE STAGED IN THE LAST HALF YEAR IS A REPLICA OF SEVERAL COMEBACKS HE HAS MADE IN THE PAST, SINCE 1987, WHEN HE WAS ESSENTIALLY STRIPPED OF POWER IN THE GORBACHEV POLITBURO AND BECAME A POLITICAL NON-PERSON. IN 1989, IN THE FIRST SEMI-DEMOCRATIC ELECTION IN RUSSIA -- THEN THE SOVIET UNION -- HE WON 89 PERCENT OF THE VOTES IN MOSCOW. HE DID THE SAME IN 1993, WHEN, UNDER ASSAULT BY AN ANTI-REFORMIST SUPREME SOVIET, HE SUDDENLY DECIDED TO STAGE A NATIONAL REFERENDUM ON HIS RULE, AND AGAIN, HE RECEIVED 57 PERCENT OF THE VOTE. SO THIS IS A PATTERN WITH BORIS YELTSIN. HE IS A BORN CAMPAIGNER. AND A CAMPAIGNER IN CRISIS." HOST: BESIDES WIDESPREAD FEAR OF A RETURN TO THE COMMUNIST PAST, STRONGLY EMPHASIZED IN A TELEVISION CAMPAIGN BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OF THE VOTING ON JULY 3RD, MR. YELTSIN DID HAVE MANY ALLIES. THE MEDIA, WORRIED THAT CENSORSHIP WOULD RETURN WITH THE COMMUNISTS, OVERWHELMINGLY FAVORED THE PRESIDENT OVER HIS COMMUNIST CHALLENGER, GENNADY ZYUGANOV. POWERFUL BUSINESS INTERESTS REPORTEDLY POURED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS INTO THE YELTSIN CAMPAIGN. ACCORDING TO AVRAHAM SHAMA, A PROFESSOR OF MANAGEMENT AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO, HE WAS ALSO FAVORED BY A LARGE AND RAPIDLY GROWING MIDDLE CLASS. BECAUSE THESE NEW ENTREPRENEURS AVOID PAYING TAXES, THEIR NUMBERS AND SUCCESS ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL STATISTICS RELEASED BY THE COMMITTEE ON STATE STATISTICS, OR GOSKOMSTAT:

TAPE: CUT THREE -- SHAMA "ACCORDING TO RUSSIAN OFFICIAL STATISTICS, THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY HAS BEEN DECLINING AND IS STILL DECLINING. IN REALITY, WHAT HAS HAPPENED IS THAT SMALL PRIVATE BUSINESS AND NEWLY PRIVATIZED INDUSTRIES ARE GROWING VERY FAST. SO IN REALITY, THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS DOUBLE ITS REPORTED SIZE, AND THE STANDARD OF LIVING OF THE TYPICAL RUSSIAN IS DOUBLE ITS REPORTED SIZE BY GOSKOMSTAT. ONE CAN LOOK AT RUSSIAN SOCIETY IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE TRANSITION TO A MARKET ECONOMY IN TERMS OF TWO GROUPS. ONE INCLUDES 36-MILLION PENSIONERS, WHO MAKE APPROXIMATELY 25 DOLLARS A MONTH ON THEIR PENSION, AND THAT IS NOT ENOUGH FOR THE VERY BASICS OF LIFE. ON THE OTHER HAND, YOU HAVE A HUGE MIDDLE CLASS THAT IS DEVELOPING IN RUSSIA THAT IS MARKET-ORIENTED. THAT POPULATION IS DOING WELL. EVEN IF IT IS NOT DOING TERRIBLY WELL, THEY CAN SEE THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL AND THEY ARE VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE." HOST: PROFESSOR SHAMA HAS BEEN STUDYING THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN RUSSIA SINCE 1988, AS WELL AS FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN RUSSIA AND FOREIGN JOINT VENTURES THERE. HE BELIEVES THAT THERE HAS BEEN A REAL GROWTH IN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OF FROM SIX TO TEN PERCENT SINCE THE MIDDLE OF 1994. INDIVIDUAL SECTORS WITHIN THE PRIVATE ECONOMY, HE SAYS, ARE GROWING AT RATES OF UP TO 150 PERCENT PER YEAR. BUT 90 PERCENT OF THEIR REVENUES GO UNREPORTED. THIS AVOIDANCE OF TAXES IS TYPICAL, HE SAYS, OF TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES OF EAST/CENTRAL EUROPE AS WELL:

TAPE: CUT FOUR -- SHAMA "THE PROBLEM OF ALL TRANSTION ECONOMIES IS THAT THE NEW ECONOMY, THE MARKET-ORIENTED ECONOMY, THE PRIVATE ECONOMY, DEVELOPS FAST AND IT DOES NOT HAVE ANY MOTIVATION TO REPORT ITS INCOME TO TAX COLLECTORS. THAT HAS BEEN THE SITUATION IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND IN HUNGARY AND IN POLAND. AND IN FACT, IN THOSE COUNTRIES TOO, THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL UNDERGROUND ECONOMY THAT HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED TWO OR THREE YEARS AGO AND THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS ARE NOW INSTITUTING MECHANISMS FOR MORE EFFECTIVE TAX COLLECTION. SO THE SAME THING WILL HAPPEN IN RUSSIA A FEW YEARS DOWN THE ROAD. MECHANISMS TO COLLECT TAXES FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR WILL BE INSTITUTED AND THE TAX EVASION OR TAX UNDER-REPORTING WILL BE GOING DOWN." HOST: WHILE MUCH OF THE REAL INCOME OR BUSINESS PROFITS MAY GO UNREPORTED, SOME OFFICIAL RUSSIAN STATISTICS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN QUITE POSITIVE, ACCORDING TO THE U-S AMBASSADOR IN MOSCOW, THOMAS PICKERING:

TAPE: CUT FIVE -- PICKERING "INFLATION IS DOWN BELOW TWO PERCENT, THE RUBLE IS STABLE AND CONVERTICLE. PRODUCTION IS TURNING AROUND, DESPITE THAT MASSIVE DECLINE. FIFTY PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE OWN THEIR OWN HOMES. ABOUT 60 TO 80 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WORK IN AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF SOMETHING PRIVATIZED. THERE ARE 300-THOUSAND PRIVATE FARMERS AND PROBABLY ONE-MILLION PEOPLE ENGAGED IN SMALL BUSINESS. AND SO THERE'S A BRIGHT SIDE AND A BAD SIDE TO WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING IN RUSSIA, AND THAT NEEDS TO BE KEPT IN PERSPECTIVE AND IN BALANCE." HOST: MANY OTHER OBSERVERS POINT TO THE NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENTS, WHICH MAY BE WORSENED BY VARIOUS PROMISES OF HELP TO NEEDY PEOPLE AND ENTERPRISES MADE BY PRESIDENT YELTSIN IN THE COURSE OF HIS CAMPAIGN. PETER REDDAWAY, A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AT THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY IN WASHINGTON, D-C, BELIEVES THE BAD SIDE MAY WELL OUTWEIGH THE GOOD SIDE:

TAPE: CUT SIX -- REDDAWAY "THE FACT THAT INFLATION IS DOWN IS OF COURSE A HOPEFUL SIGN IN ITSELF, BUT YOU CAN'T DETACH IT FROM OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SITUATION. TWO OF THE MOST IMPORTANT ARE: A MASSIVE DELAY IN THE PAYMENT OF WAGES, WHICH IS NOW, ACCORDING TO THE LABOR MINISTER, FIVE-POINT-EIGHT BILLION DOLLARS OF WAGE ARREARS THROUGHOUT THE ECONOMY, WHICH AFFECTS A VERY LARGE PROPORTION OF THE ENTIRE WORKFORCE BECAUSE THE AVERAGE WEEKLY WAGE IN RUSSIA AT THE MOMENT IS ABOUT 37 DOLLARS A WEEK. THE OTHER REALLY SERIOUS PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF INVESTMENT FUNDS. ANOTHER ONE IS THE FISCAL SITUATION, WHERE THE GOVERNMENT HAS WILDLY OVERSPENT AND THE BUDGET DEFICIT IN APRIL HAD GONE UP TO ELEVEN-POINT-EIGHT PERCENT -- WHICH IS WAY, WAY ABOVE THE MAXIMUM, WHICH IS THREE-POINT-EIGHT-FIVE PERCENT, SPECIFIED IN RUSSIA'S CURRENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. PRIVATIZATION HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE OBTAINING AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF POWER OVER THE ECONOMY, AND NOT PURSUING ECONOMIC REFORM IN A SERIOUS WAY, PARTICULARLY WANTING TO MAINTAIN VARIOUS SORTS OF MONOPOLIES, WHICH ARE, OF COURSE, AGAINST THE WHOLE SPIRIT OF MARKET REFORM." HOST: ON THE POLITICAL SIDE, PROFESSOR REDDAWAY SEES AN EVEN GREATER THREAT TO DEMOCRATIC REFORM: A TREND TOWARDS MORE AUTHORITARIANISM:

TAPE: CUT SEVEN -- REDDAWAY "IN THE FIELD OF POLITICS, THE CHANGES HAVE BEEN IN THE DIRECTION MOVING AWAY FROM DEMOCRACY AND DRIFTING TOWARDS AUTHORITARIANISM, WITH PRESIDENT YELTSIN ACTING IN AN INCREASINGLY AUTOCRATIC WAY, ISSUING DECREES AND PAYING NO ATTENTION TO THE DUMA, OR PARLIAMENT, OR ANYBODY ELSE WHO MAY CRITICIZE HIM. AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT, LOCAL GOVERNMENT IN RUSSIA, HAS ALSO UNFORTUNATELY BEEN MOVING IN DIRECTIONS THAT HAVE BEEN BAD FOR DEMOCRACY." HOST: WHILE GRANTING THAT PROFESSOR REDDAWAY'S CONCERNS ARE WELL TAKEN, MOST WESTERN OBSERVERS ARE MUCH MORE IMPRESSED BY THE PROGRESS RUSSIA HAS MADE SINCE THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION FOUR AND A HALF YEARS AGO. ANGELA STENT, A PROFESSOR OF GOVERNMENT AT GEOGETOWN UNIVERSITY IN WASHINGTON, HAS JUST COME BACK FROM OBSERVING THE ELECTIONS IN RUSSIA:

TAPE: CUT EIGHT -- STENT "FIRST OF ALL, RUSSIA HAS IRREVOCABLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE COMMAND ECONOMY THAT EXISTED UNDER THE COMMUNISTS. IT HAS BECOME A MARKET SOCIETY. POLITICALLY, THERE ALSO HAVE BEEN, I WOULD SAY, IRREVERSIBLE CHANGES. YOU NO LONGER HAVE A ONE PARTY STATE. THE COMMUNIST PARTY REMAINS THE BEST ORGANIZED PARTY IN RUSSIA BUT THE COMMUNIST PARTY NO LONGER DOMINATES THE COUNTRY. YOU HAVE MUCH GREATER FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION. THE MEDIA IN RUSSIA ARE REMARKABLY FREE. CIVIL SOCIETY HAS REALLY BLOSSOMED. YOU HAVE MANY DIFFERENT GROUPS, CITIZENS' INITIATIVES, GRASSROOTS GROUPS THAT HAVE ARISEN. YOU REALLY HAVE A MUCH MORE PLURALISTIC SOCIETY, WHERE MOST RUSSIANS DO BELIEVE THAT THEY DO HAVE CHOICES. THIRDLY, THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ITSELF IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DECENTRALIZED. WHATEVER DECREES ARE ISSUED BY PRESIDENT YELTSIN IN MOSCOW, MANY OF THEM ARE LARGELY IGNORED OUT IN THE PROVINCES. YOU HAVE A DE FACTO DECENTRALIZATION WHICH WOULD MAKE IT VERY HARD TO REIMPOSE CENTRAL RULE. SO I THINK IN ALL OF THESE AREAS: ECONOMIC, POLITICAL IN TERMS OF PLURALISM, AND ALSO REGIONAL DECENTRALIZATION, RUSSIA HAS IRREVOCABLY CHANGED, IN A MERE FOUR AND A HALF YEARS." HOST: DESPITE THE MARKED POLITICAL CHANGE, PROFESSOR STENT SAYS RUSSIA, AS YET, HAS NO VIABLE MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM. SHE THINKS THAT PRESIDENT YELTSIN MADE A MISTAKE WHEN HE LOST THE MOMENTUM HE HAD AFTER THE BREAK-UP OF THE SOVIET UNION IN 1993, AND FAILED TO ORGANIZE HIS OWN POLITICAL PARTY. ON THE OTHER HAND, SHE BELIEVES THAT THE COMMUNIST PARTY, AT LEAST IN ITS PRESENT FORM, HAS NO FUTURE:

TAPE: CUT NINE -- STENT "THE COMMUNISTS HAVE EXHAUSTED THEIR ELECTORAL BASE AND CERTAINLY THE DATA FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF THE ELECTIONS ON JUNE 16TH REINFORCES THIS. THEY ARE LARGELY THE PARTY OF THE OLDER PEOPLE, PEOPLE OVER 45 AND PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN THE LOSERS FROM THE COLLAPSE OF COMMUNISM, PEOPLE ON FIXED INCOMES, PEOPLE WHO ARE UNABLE OR UNWILLING TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS NEW, MORE COMPETITIVE MARKET SOCIETY WHERE THEY ARE NOT GUARANTEED EITHER SALARIES OR JOBS. AND IT APPEARS THAT THE COMMUNISTS HAVE VERY LITTLE APPEAL TO YOUNGER PEOPLE, THAT PEOPLE UNDER 45, CERTAINLY 40, YEARS OF AGE, WHO HAVE BEEN ENJOYING THE FRUITS OF A POST-COMMUNIST SOCIETY. AND EVEN IF THEY'RE NOT THAT WELL-OFF, THEY BELIEVE THAT IN THE FUTURE THEY WILL BE." HOST: ON ISSUES OF FOREIGN POLICY, PROFESSOR STENT POINTS OUT THAT THE DUMA RESOLUTION OUTLAWING THE DISSOLUTION OF THE SOVIET UNION APPEARS TO HAVE BOOMERANGED. THE RUSSIAN PUBLIC, SHE SAYS, WAS FRIGHTENED BY THE THOUGHT OF FORCIBLY RECONSTITUTING THE SOVIET UNION. THEY ALSO GIVE SCANT SUPPORT TO FOREIGN MINISTER YEVGENIY PRIMAKOV'S CALLS FOR REINTEGRATING THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES, AS WELL AS THE CAMPAIGN RHETORIC DENOUNCING WESTERN PLANS TO ENLARGE NATO:

TAPE: CUT TEN -- STENT "POLLING DATA AND EXITS POLLS SHOW THAT MOST RUSSIANS, DESPITE THEIR PSYCHOLOGICAL FEELINGS ABOUT THE LOSS OF THE SOVIET UNION AND THE PLIGHT OF 25-MILLION RUSSIANS IN SUCCESSOR STATES, THIS HASN'T BEEN A VERY IMPORTANT ISSUE FOR THEM. SO WHAT I WOULD FORSEE IN A NEXT YELTSIN ADMINISTRATION, WITH MR. PRIMAKOV AS FOREIGN MINISTER, WOULD BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS OF VOLUNTARY AND LARGELY ECONOMIC REINTEGRATION, CERTAINLY WITH BELARUS AND THEN SOME OF THE OTHER POST-SOVIET STATES. I THINK DESPITE THE RHETORIC, THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS IN TERMS OF REUNION WITH UKRAINE. NATO IS COMMITTED TO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF ENLARGEMENT, BEGINNING WITH A MEETING THIS DECEMBER, 1996, TALKING ABOUT WHICH COUNTRIES WOULD BE THE FIRST ONES TO JOIN. AND IT LOOKS AS IF THIS PROCESS WILL GO THROUGH. ONE SHOULD ALSO SAY THAT IN TERMS OF THE RUSSIAN VOTERS, THIS REALLY WAS NOT AN ISSUE, AGAIN, THAT WAS VERY HIGH ON THEIR AGENDA, AND ALSO THAT MR. PRIMAKOV HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF FLEXIBILITY ON THIS ISSUE." HOST: THE FUTURE ROLE OF RETIRED GENERAL ALEXANDER LEBED IS A MATTER OF CONSIDERABLE CONTROVERSY. AFTER COMING IN THIRD IN THE JUNE 16TH VOTING, THE GENERAL PLEDGED HIS SUPPORT TO PRESIDENT YELTSIN, AND WAS APPOINTED PERSONAL ADVISER TO THE PRESIDENT ON SECURITY AFFAIRS. SINCE GENERAL LEBED HAS CONSISTENTLY OPPOSED THE BLOODY WAR IN CHECHNYA, PROFESSOR PETER REDDAWAY SEES HOPE FOR AN END TO THAT CONFLICT:

TAPE: CUT ELEVEN -- REDDAWAY "I THINK MR. LEBED REALLY DOES HAVE A DESIRE TO END THE CHECHNYA WAR. I THINK THAT MR. YELTSIN MAY ALLOW HIM TO PROCEED WITH THAT, AND GIVE HIM SOME SUPPORT. MR. LEBED APPEARS TO BE PREPARED TO LET THE CHECHENS BECOME INDEPENDENT AND HOPE THAT THE DIFFICULTY OF THEIR ECONOMIC SITUATION WOULD IN DUE COURSE BRING THEM BACK INTO SOME CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA." HOST: IT APPEARS, HOWEVER, THAT THERE IS NO LOVE LOST BETWEEN GENERAL LEBED AND PRIME MINISTER VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN. THE GENERAL HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE POSITION OF VICE PRESIDENT SHOULD BE CREATED, PRESUMABLY THINKING OF HIMSELF AS THE LOGICAL PERSON FOR THE JOB. MR. CHERNOMYRDIN HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CONSTITUTION WOULD HAVE TO BE CHANGED TO CREATE THE POST OF VICE PRESIDENT AND IMPLIED THAT THERE WOULD BE NO PLACE FOR GENERAL LEBED IN THE GOVERNMENT THAT HE IS IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING. AS FOR CANDIDATES FOR HIS NEXT GOVERNMENT, THE PRIME MINISTER SAYS HE WILL CONSIDER ANY ABLE PERSON, REGARDLESS OF PARTY AFFILIATION -- PRESUMABLY SUGGESTING THAT COMMUNISTS AS WELL AS REFORMERS WILL BE CONSIDERED. LEON ARON BELIEVES THAT VIKTOR CHERNOMYRDIN IS LIKELY TO PLAY A MUCH STRONGER ROLE IN RUSSIA'S FUTURE THAN IS ALEXANDER LEBED:

TAPE: CUT TWELVE -- ARON "GENERAL LEBED IS A VERY INTERESTING FIGURE. HE OBVIOUSLY HELPED (MR.) YELTSIN A GREAT DEAL IN THIS ELECTION BECAUSE HIS MESSAGE OF DEMOCRACY AND ORDER AND CAPITALISM FREE OF CORRUPTION AND BRIBERY RESONATED WITH MILLIONS OF RUSSIANS. I GENERALLY FEEL THAT THE INFLUENCE OF GENERAL LEBED AFTER THE ELECTIONS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. AFTER ALL, HE ENTERS THE KREMLIN WHERE THE TEAM OF YELTSIN AND CHERNMYRDIN HAVE WORKED VERY WELL FOR OVER THREE YEARS. GENERALLY, EVEN THE OPPONENTS OF THE REGIME FEEL THAT THE CHERNOMYRDIN GOVERNMENT IS QUITE COMPETENT AND EXPERIENCED AND CHERNOMYRDIN HIMSELF, I THINK, IS A VERY GOOD CANDIDATE FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, PERHAPS EVEN VICTORY, IN THE YEAR 2000." HOST: MR. ARON BELIEVES THAT MR. YELTSIN AND MR. CHERNOMYRDIN WILL ENJOY A BRIEF HONEYMOON -- OR PERIOD OF COOPERATION -- WITH THE PARLIAMENT, AND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY TO PUT THROUGH A LONG-NEEDED REFORM PROGRAM:

TAPE: CUT THIRTEEN -- ARON "IF THE NEW YELTSIN CABINET AND PRESIDENT YELTSIN HIMSELF DECIDE TO REINVIGORATE A REFORM EFFORT, THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ISSUES THAT NEED TO BE TACKLED. TO REVISE AND ENFORCE AND REGULATE THE TAX CODE. THE TAXES ARE COLLECTED ERATICALLY, WHEREVER THEY'RE COLLECTED. THERE ARE LOTS OF TAX BREAKS BASED ON BRIBES AND CONNECTIONS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE ELIMINATED. THERE WILL HAVE TO BE STRENGTHENING OF PROPERTY AND OWNERSHIP TITLES AND LAWS. THE LAND REFORM, WHICH I THINK CONTRIBUTED TO YELTSIN'S VICTORY, STILL EXISTS LARGELY IN THE FORM OF A PRESIDENTIAL DECREE. IF IT IS PURSUED, AS I THINK IT MUST, IN ORDER TO MAKE RUSSIA INDEPENDENT FROM FOOD IMPORTS, IT WILL HAVE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENED AND THE DETAILS OF LAND OWNERSHIP WILL HAVE TO BE SPELLED OUT, PERHAPS EVEN ON A CONSTITUTIONAL LEVEL. IF YELTSIN WANTS TO PURSUE REFORM HE WILL HAVE TO MOVE VERY RAPIDLY, I THINK, WITH THE REGULATIONS AND LAWS ON IMPORT AND EXPORT. AS A WHOLE, THIS PACKAGE, PRESUMABLY, WOULD CREATE A WAVE OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN WHICH FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC PRODUCERS AND INVESTORS WOULD FEEL SECURE ENOUGH, BOTH IN TERMS OF THE LAWS OF THE COUNTRY AND THE POLITICAL STABILITY IN THE COUNTRY, TO INVEST IN RUSSIA." HOST: MUCH REMAINS TO BE DONE. BUT MR. ARON BELIEVES THAT BORIS YELTSIN HAS ALREADY EARNED A MAJOR PLACE IN RUSSIAN HISTORY:

TAPE: CUT FOURTEEN -- ARON "WITH MIKHAIL GORBACHEV, HE UNDOUBTEDLY WILL BE COUNTED AS A FOUNDING FATHER OF RUSSIAN DEMOCRACY. (MR.) GORBACHEV PLAYED AN EXTREMELY IMPORTANT AND BENIGN ROLE IN UNDERMINING THE COMMUNISTS. (BORIS) YELTSIN CONTINUED BY BUILDING THE RUDIMENTS OF DEMOCRACY AND TAKING RUSSIA THROUGH A NUMBER OF EXERCISES IN DEMOCRACY -- INSTITUTIONALIZING A FREE PRESS, FREE POLTICIAL ACTIVITY, POLITICAL PARTIES, THE PARLIAMENT AND CONSTITUTION AND NOW THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. SO BOTH (PRESIDENT) YELTSIN AND (MR.) GORBACHEV ARE ASSURED THEIR PLACES IN HISTORY." CART: THEME, UP AND UNDER HOST: YOU HAVE BEEN LISTENING TO INTERNATIONAL FOCUS ON THE VOICE OF AMERICA. OUR PROGRAM HAS CONSIDERED THE FUTURE OUTLOOK OF RUSSIA IN THE WAKE OF PRESIDENT BORIS YELTSIN ELECTION LAST WEEK TO ANOTHER FOUR-YEAR TERM. TODAY'S PROGRAM WAS WRITTEN AND NARRATED BY FRANK RONALDS. IT WAS EDITED BY PHIL HAYNES, DIRECTED BY ____ AND PRODUCED BY ____. JOIN US AGAIN AT THIS TIME NEXT WEEK FOR ANOTHER EDITION OF "INTERNATIONAL FOCUS."
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09-Jul-96 9:01 AM EDT (1301 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[05] U-S-BOSNIA (S ONLY) BY RON PEMSTEIN (STATE DEPARTMENT)

INTRO: THE APPROVAL OF A DEFENSE LAW BY THE MUSLIM-CROAT FEDERATION IN BOSNIA-HERZGOVINA HAS CLEARED THE WAY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AMERICAN PROGRAM TO TRAIN AND EQUIP THE BOSNIAN ARMY. RON PEMSTEIN REPORTS FROM THE STATE DEPARTMENT.

TEXT: THE UNITED STATES MADE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A UNITED ARMY AS ITS LAST CONDITION FOR BEGINNING THE AMERICAN PROGRAM TO TRAIN AND EQUIP BOSNIA'S MILITARY.

THE STATE DEPARTMENT SAYS THE BOSNIAN FEDERATION WILL SIGN A CONTRACT WITH THE AMERICAN FIRM -- MILITARY PROFESSIONAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED OF ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA -- NEXT WEEK. TRAINING COULD START BY EARLY AUGUST. DELIVERIES OF 100 MILLION DOLLARS OF WORTH OF SURPLUS AMERICAN MILITARY EQUIPMENT WILL DEPEND ON TRANSPORT SCHEDULES.

STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN NICHOLAS BURNS SAYS THE PROGRAM WILL MAKE THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT ABLE TO DEFEND ITSELF WHEN THE INTERNATIONAL PEACE FORCE LEAVES THE COUNTRY.

OUR OBJECTIVE HERE IS TO HAVE THE TRAINING AND EQUIPPING ESSENTIALLY COMPLETED BY THE TIME THE IFOR TROOPS LEAVE SO THAT WE WILL HAVE SUCCESSFULLY BUILT UP THE CAPABILITIES OF THE FEDERATION FORCES IN ORDER TO HAVE THIS DETERRENT EFFECT IN PLACE BY THE TIME IFOR LEAVES.

THE UNITED STATES HAD ALSO MADE THE PROGRAM CONTINGENT ON THE DEPARTURE OF FOREIGN FIGHTING UNITS FROM BOSNIA THAT IT CERTIFIED ON JUNE 25TH. (SIGNED)
NEB/RP/GKT/MMK
09-Jul-96 2:17 PM EDT (1817 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

[06] U-S/BOSNIA ARRESTS (S ONLY) BY VICTOR BEATTIE (WASHINGTON)

INTRO: THE UNITED STATES SAYS IT SUPPORTS AN APPEAL BY PROSECUTORS AT THE INTERNATIONAL WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL ON THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA FOR ARREST WARRANTS FOR TWO INDICTED BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS. V-O-A'S VICTOR BEATTIE REPORTS, HOWEVER, THE STATE DEPARTMENT STOPPED SHORT OF SAYING NATO PEACEKEEPING TROOPS WILL ACT TO ENFORCE SUCH ARREST WARRANTS:

TEXT: SPOKESMAN NICHOLAS BURNS SAYS HE IS SURE THE UNITED STATES WOULD SUPPORT A UNANIMOUS TRIBUNAL CALL FOR INTERNATIONAL ARREST WARRANTS ON BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS RADOVAN KARADZIC AND RATKO MLADIC:

WE HAVE NEVER TURNED DOWN ANY MAJOR AND REASONABLE REQUEST MADE TO US BY THE WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL. WE REMAIN THE TRIBUNAL'S LARGEST AND MOST IMPORTANT SUPPORTER, FINANCIALLY, AND THROUGH THE PROVISION OF LAWYERS AND WILL CONTINUE THAT SUPPORT.

MR. BURNS SAYS THE UNITED STATES FULLY SUPPORTS AMERICAN ENVOY ROBERT FROWICK'S DECISION TO BAR THE NATIONALIST SERB PARTY FROM UPCOMING ELECTIONS AS LONG AS MR. KARADZIC REMAINS ITS LEADER OR HAS INFLUENCE ON THE POLITICAL PROCESS.

THE STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN RE-EMPHASIZED THAT NATO TROOPS IN BOSNIA WILL NOT SEARCH FOR THE BOSNIAN SERB LEADERS ALTHOUGH THEY MIGHT BE ARRESTED IF THEY ARE SEEN. HE SAYS THE SIGNATORIES TO THE DAYTON PEACE ACCORD, THE BOSNIAN SERBS, THE BOSNIAN GOVERNMENT, CROATIA AND SERBIA ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR ARRESTING INDICTED WAR CRIMINALS. (SIGNED).
NEB/VB/KL
08-Jul-96 10:42 PM EDT (0242 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America

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