TRKNWS-L Turkish Daily News (February 13, 1996)

From: TRKNWS-L <trh@aimnet.com>

Turkish News Directory

CONTENTS

TURKISH DAILY NEWS / 13 February 1996

[01] Government crisis jolts parties

-ANAP: liberals such as Gunes Taner may resign should ANAP form a coalition with the RP. However if ANAP joins a non-RP government, Muhsin Yazicioglu and his BBP-origin colleagues may leave the party

-DYP: Rifat Serdaroglu and his friends may rebel if the DYP fails to form a coalition with ANAP. Also, if the DYP agrees to a coalition government under Ecevit's premiership, former "idealists" such as Yasar Dedelek may defect By Kemal Balci

TDN Parliament Bureau

ANKARA- The prolonged government crisis has seriously jolted the political parties, particularly those of the center-right.

Party leaders face difficulties in keeping the integrity of their parties intact.

Dissident factions within the center-right parties, the DYP and ANAP, have gained strength vis-a-vis their leaders. The leaders' relations with the RP, and their response to the proposed premiership of DSP leader Bulent Ecevit, play a critical role in deputies' loyalty to their parties.

DYP Chairwoman Tansu Ciller's firm insistence on her premiership has created serious problems within her party.

Despite a binding decision by the DYP General Administration Board (GIK) and the Parliamentary Group to reject any government model in which Ciller did not retain her post, the rebellion of those who want a coalition between the DYP and ANAP cannot be suppressed.

Rifat Serdaroglu, one of the leading DYP dissidents, met with colleagues at an iftar meal prior to the Parliamentary Group meeting which is expected to take place today. The DYP administration is seeking to cancel this meeting, fearing that any rebellion will create the impression of a divided party. The party's group executive board has cancelled the meeting it regularly holds on Mondays prior to the weekly group meetings.

DYP dissidents have reportedly decided to use this week's group meeting to respond to deputies close to Ciller, known as the party's "A team," who during last week's group meeting expressed their loyalty to the party leader. The dissidents reportedly intend to criticize the party administration for its binding decision to reject a Ciller-free government.

It is known that the long-term objective of Ciller's opponents within the DYP is to prepare for the party's convention. However they maintain that their desire for a Motherpath government under the premiership of a third person still persists.

In ANAP, too, reactions against the failure to form a Motherpath government continue. ANAP's liberal wing insists on a partnership with the DYP, and deputies such as Gunes Taner have already announced that they would not accept party decisions should such a coalition not be formed.

Controversy also surrounds the prospect of ANAP joining a non-RP coalition government. ANAP's conservative wing, and former members of the Grand Unity Party (BBP) who participated in the Dec. 24 elections on the ANAP ticket, have announced that they would resign should ANAP enter a non-RP coalition government.

If the ANAP administration decides to form a coalition with the RP, liberal deputies such as Gunes Taner, Kaya Erdem and Isin Celebi are unlikely to support such a government in a vote of confidence. They could even resign from the party.

Should ANAP form a coalition with the DYP under the premiership of a third person, the conservative wing of the party would be offended. Prominent conservatives such as Korkut Ozal, Cemil Cicek and Abdulkadir Aksu have been pushing hard for a coalition with the RP. Oltan Sungurlu, a leading ANAP official who backs this group, thinks ANAP leader Mesut Yilmaz should consider resignation if he is not prepared to risk a coalition with the RP.

Those in the DYP who want a coalition with ANAP say that the Ciller obstacle should be surmounted first. The dissident DYP faction, which wants an agreement on the premiership of a third person, also opposes the party administration by threatening resignation.

Ciller's proposal for a three-party coalition under Ecevit's premiership, made through Hasan Ekinci and aimed to satisfy the dissidents, has come under fire from the section of the party known as the "nationalists and idealists." Yasar Dedelek, a party administrator, said Ecevit's premiership was unacceptable.

The expectation that the government crisis will remain unsolved for another two weeks reinforces speculation that threats of resignation may increase in volume.

[02] Turkey to launch diplomatic drive on Kardak crisis

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- Turkey will launch a diplomatic initiative this week to explain the Turkish position on the Kardak rocks in an attempt to counter what appears to be a Greek diplomatic onslaught aimed at getting its European Union partners to its side in this dispute.

The Turkish initiative follows a declaration last week by the European Commission in which "full solidarity with Greece" was expressed over this dispute. The Commission had also called on both countries to settle the dispute in a peaceful way.

Prime Minister Tansu Ciller told reporters after a security meeting chaired by herself on Monday that the crisis over the "Ikizce Rocks" had indicated that similar crisis could be looming in other regions of the Aegean.

Ikizce is the new name given by the Turkish side to the Kardak Rocks being disputed between Turkey and Greece and which brought the two countries to the brink of a military confrontation recently.

"There is the need to take up the issue of the Aegean as a whole, and to start a dialogue on the subject of islets and rocks whose status is not clear" Ciller said.

She added that Turkey wanted to have friendly relations with Turkey but said this did not mean that it was prepared to give up on its rights in the Aegean.

Foreign Minister Deniz Baykal will begin the Turkish diplomatic initiative in London on Wednesday, where he will have a working lunch with British Foreign Secretary Malcolm Rifkind.

On Friday the foreign minister will move on to Brussels, where he will meet with NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana, European Commissioner Hans van den Broek, and possibly his Belgian counterpart.

Thursday is to be kept vacant for the time being, but this might well be filled with a "whirlwind visit" to Paris if the schedule of the host country permits.

While Foreign Ministry spokesman Omer Akbel said that the focus of the visits would be "various issues of Turkish foreign policy," there is little doubt that the agenda will be dominated by the Kardak crisis, which locked the two countries in a military standoff two weeks ago, and Turco-Greek ties in general.

The Turkish initiative comes at a time when Greece has attempted to rally European Union support to the thesis that Kardak, which it calls Imia, is Greek territory, as are other rocks and islets in the Aegean.

It has succeeded in eliciting a statement from the European Commission over the weekend expressing "full solidarity" with Greece over the Kardak issue.

Describing the commission statement as "unfortunate," Foreign Ministry spokesman Akbel reaffirmed the Turkish position that Ankara was surprised that the commission "saw fit" to express solidarity with Greece on the matter, particularly when their policy was not to get involved in Turco-Greek disputes.

He said that the solidarity had been expressed without an analysis of the issue.

Baykal, when he meets with van den Broek, is expected to bring up this statement, and explain Turkey's legal position on the Aegean dispute.

Military exercise is no provocation

In a related development, Akbel denied that a series of Turkish exercises in the Aegean and the Mediterranean were "a provocation" at a sensitive time.

"I do not see anything provocative about a previously-scheduled exercise," the spokesman said.

He said that the Greek side had been informed of the military exercise, scheduled to take place between Feb. 12 and 16.

"These military exercises, called Nimble Paw (Cevik Pence), will be carried out in Turkish waters and international waters," he said, adding that the exercises would take place at nine different locations.

Asked about Greece's "close watch" of the exercise, Akbel replied jokingly: "I would be surprised if they did not." While the Greek media continued to cover the military exercise as a "Turkish provocation," Greek Defense Minister Gerassimos Arsenis said Greece had been informed of the military exercise, which was a scheduled and routine one. "It creates no threat," he said.

Meanwhile the Anatolia News Agency reporting from Strasbourg on Monday said that the European Parliament was planning to discuss the Kardak crisis this Wednesday.

It said the views of the EU Council of Ministers and of the European Commission on the dispute would be explained to Euro MPs during the debate on the issue.

Anatolia, quoting diplomatic sources, said that while the Liberal group in the EP was planning to table a balanced resolution on the crisis, the Socialist group was working on a draft resolution that was critical of Turkey.

[03] Seven percent growth estimated for 1995

ANKARA- Figures are expected to show that the Turkish GNP grew in real terms by a rapid seven percent during 1995, Finance Minister Aykon Dogan said on Monday.

"The economy resumed its growth trend following the first quarter of last year. Rapid growth since then has slowed down after last October," he told a meeting.

"Export performance during 1995 was satisfactory. The export target was overshot. Foreign currency reserves have gone far beyond our expectations," the minister explained.

Dogan objected to speculation that the budget deficit would threaten payment of the domestic and foreign debts.

"We are not pleased with inflation in 1995. But though it is still high, we observe a serious decrease relative to the previous year, which indicates the success of the stabilization program," the minister said.

He added that the continuation of the stabilization program would make 1996 even better than 1995.

Dogan said that despite the positive developments, the Turkish economy still faced serious problems. "Total foreign debts reached $70 billion. $32 billion in official imports and $8 billion in border trade imports -- a total of $40 billion -- was financed by the foreign currency created by the Turkish economy," said the minister.

He said that a country's level of foreign debt was an indicator of its credibility, determined by the economic performance, production power and export level of that country.

Domestic debt, at 17 percent of GNP, was less than many European countries, said Dogan. He said that between January and September last year the government had managed to increase the maturity and decrease the interest rate of the domestic debt.

But because of the political turmoil, he said, the maturity decreased while the interest rate increased at the end of the year.

"The Treasury bill auctions and the private sector expectations show that they are ready for longrun maturities.

The interest rates as well as the domestic debt interests, which increased in January, will decrease according to expectations," said Dogan.

[04] Niyazov in Ankara for official visit

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- Ankara, long-worried about its increasing need for natural gas, received Monday the agreement of Turkmenistan to sell Turkey between 10 to 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas between 1998 and 2020.

The accord will further be strengthened in a memorandum of understanding between the two countries' energy ministers today.

The route carrying the Turkmen gas to Turkey can either be via Iran, which is not favored by the Turkmen gas consortium, or Armenia or Georgia. Ankara says it is not against any of the paths.

The delegations, chaired by President Suleyman Demirel of Turkey and Saparmurad Niyazov of Turkmenistan, are eager to make an agreement which would stipulate the Turkmen sale of 2 billion cubic meters of gas in 1998. This number will increase to 5 billion cubic meters by 2004 and hit a possible 15 million cubic meters by 2020.

The visit was marked by exchange of lavish gifts. Demirel presented Niyazov a portrait of the Turkmen president, while Niyazov gave Demirel a statuette containing the head of a wolf.

The gift-exchange followed a press statement by both presidents in which they promised to continue support for each other.

"We carefully watch the giant steps Turkmenistan is taking toward democracy, secularism and market economics," Demirel said.

His statement indicated the Turkish willingness to carry Turkmen natural resources to international markets via Turkey.

"This means both gas and oil," Demirel said.

The two presidents have signed a protocol on principles of long-term cooperation which includes the intention to co-operate in fields as diverse as education and military training.

Demirel also praised the activities of Turkish companies in Turkmenistan, saying that a quarter of the 200 foreign companies operating in the former Soviet republic were Turkish.

"Relations between the two countries are based on mutual respect and non-intervention," Niyazov said.

Both presidents said that they hoped that the bilateral relations would yield fruit and that the visit would mark a step in that direction.

Niyazov will meet with Prime Minister Ciller tomorrow.

[05] Middle East countries plan to form consortium to buy water from Turkey

Turkish Daily News

ANKARA- Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Palestine are planning to form a consortium in order to import water from Turkey, a report by the Israeli government said.

The report, entitled "Development Alternatives for Cooperation in the Middle East and East Mediterranean Region 1996," warns that the low level of water resources in the region are alarming.

"By the year 2000 water demand will increase by 30 percent in the region. This amount will be double by 2030 and the water scarcity will turn into a crisis," the report quoted by the Anatolian news agency said.

Stating that a minimum of $900 million in annual spending is required to overcome the problem, the report urges developing a "strategy on water." "Almost three out of four acres of land from Morocco to Iraq are becoming desert. In many Arab countries, especially in Syria, water is sold for cheap prices and no priorities in usage are set. Thus, there is no strategy on developing water resources or the consumption of water." The report said that the cost of refining sea water was very high and not an appropriate alternative for Middle East countries, excluding oil rich Arab states.

Water export projects

According to the report the most cost effective project for solving the water problem in the region is Turkey's "Manavgat Project," which is expected to be finished later this year.

The report suggests building a consortium to carry the water from Manavgat, Antalya to the port of Askhelon near the Gaza Strip.

Another project cited in the report was the water pipeline called "Peace Water." The project aims at carrying water from the Seyhan and Ceyhan rivers to Israel and Jordan via a pipeline through Syria.

However, the chances of the latter project going ahead are low because of the dispute between Turkey and Syria over Ankara's technical approach towards water.

Arab league calls for solution

Meanwhile, the Arab League called for the signing of a just agreement that guarantees Syria and Iraq's rights for sharing the waters of Euphrates.

Ismet Abdulmecit, the general-secretary of the Arab League, quoted by daily Al Hayat urged related countries to comply with international agreements on water sharing.

Al Hayat claimed that Abdulmecit's call for a tripartite meeting had been turned down by Turkey.

Earlier the Syrian government sent a memorandum to the league asking for the dispute, over the sharing of the waters of the river Euphrates, to be discussed at its ministerial council, due to meet in Cairo on March 13.

Ankara is urging its two downstream neighbors, Iraq and Syria, to negotiate on a three-staged plan which proposes "a technical approach" to the water question by formulating water and land inventories of the three countries, then comparing them for optimal use of water resources. Similarly, senior officials from Syria and Iraq met in Damascus over the weekend to coordinate their water policies.

Syria is calling for the signing of a permanent water-sharing agreement with Turkey to replace a provisional accord requiring Turkey to allow the flow of 500 cubic meters of water to Syria per second. But Turkey, which accuses Syria of backing the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), has been cool about the Syrian demand.