MILS: News from the FYROM, 97-08-06

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From: "Macedonian Information Liaison Service" <mils@mils.spic.org.mk>

CONTENTS

[01] THREE BORDER `BONES OF CONTENTION'

[02] MACEDONIAN OBSERVERS INVITED TO ELECTIONS IN SERBIA

[03] OPPOSITION LEADING AGAINST GOVERNMENT

[04] UNITED BANK CLIENTS ANNOUNCE OFFENSIVE

[05] WHAT'S SAUCE FOR THE GOOSE IS NOT SAUCE FOR THE GANDER

[06] 18 MILLION DOLLARS GATHERED

[07] RPNE TO JOIN DPA

[08] WHERE HAS ALL THE MONEY GONE

[09] PAYMENT BALANCE

[10] INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PAYMENT BALANCE - PART 3 (G. Bishev)

MILS NEWS

Skopje, 06 August, 1997

[01] THREE BORDER `BONES OF CONTENTION'

[02] MACEDONIAN OBSERVERS INVITED TO ELECTIONS IN SERBIA

[03] OPPOSITION LEADING AGAINST GOVERNMENT

According to the poll conducted among 1.468 citizens in 38 municipalities and 60 inhabited places in the state, a most read paper is `Dnevnik', reports `Dnevnik'. At the question which of the parties the citizens feel as most distant 54% answered with: the Socialist Party, 51% consider that to be the SDSM, while 43% mentioned the VMRO-DPMNE. Around 35% of the citizens consider the LDP as most distant.

The poll makers of `Maketvizija' questioned the citizens whether they would support pre-term elections. In favour of this were 58,7%, 14,6% were against it, 8,7% did not have any opinion regarding the question, while 15% did not answer it at all. About 32% of the questioned citizens want to see the opposition united before the next elections, 29% did not have an answer, 10% think that the uniting would lead to no good. Here the percentage of those who did not want to express their opinion is 25%. The poll shows that 35% of the questioned people demand resignation of the Government, 22% support the Government while 12% replied that all is in vain because there's nothing that can be done. About 38,8% reprimand the Government for the compromise with the Albanian minority in Macedonia, 52,7% consider that the Government is most responsible for the defects in the process of privatization of the nationally owned firms.

The poll also paid attention to the popularity of the media. Thus, 95,8% said that they mostly watch TV, 92% listen to the radio while 74% read papers. The most watched is the Macedonian TV with 95% viewers, then follow Sitel and A-1 TV with 38%, and then Telma with 20,5%. At the question `whether the viewers believe the TV- stations', the pall showed that 40% of the viewers that they do not believe them, 43% answered that they believe at least in one TV station. The most listened to radio station is the `Macedonian radio' with 77%, then follow `Radio UNO', `Noma' and `Kanal 77'. The `Marketvizija' also underline that one has to bare in mind the fact that only one TV station is broadcast through out the whole state and that's the Macedonian TV.

[04] UNITED BANK CLIENTS ANNOUNCE OFFENSIVE

From now on we will act in a clients' protest coalition, everyone with his own attitudes, yet all united because the main and general attitude of everybody is gaining back the money, said Ivan Begin. Mende Mladenovski said that once more they demand a meeting with President Gligorov. `We wish to tell him, in the name of all clients, that neither he nor PM Branko Crvenkovski are held responsible for the `TAT' bankruptcy and the clients' robbery. Gligorov had suggested Borko Stanoevski for governor, then the Parliament chose him at that time `TAT' went bankrupt'- during the governing of Crvenkovski'.

We are appalled how Borko Stanoevski, besides resigning so spare himself from head aches, has left unharmed; Sonja Nikolovska who took 110 million DM is kept by the police as is she's living in a luxurious residency, and we, who are left with no money are accused of everything.. of being usurers, demonstrators and what else! I call all parties and party leaders in the state - and the one who will promise to return us our money will gain 50 thousand votes of our clients and their closest relatives, friends... at the next pre-term or regular elections. Instead of spending money on campaigns they can return our money and will gain certain victory, said Mende Mladenovski.

Ivan Begin from the `Alfa-S' said: `The claims of PM Crvenkovski that `we had been depositing our money in the `TAT' in order to make large money on account of interests and that we were typical usurers, are fairy tales'. According to him, the Bill on pre-term clients' crediting from the `TAT', `Alfa-S' and `Lavci' in non- constitutional and will surely fall down before of the Constitutional Court because Begin says: `the interests of our paid taxes were rejected because of our damaged civil freedom and the origin demand of our money.' The clients, according to Mladenovski are preparing a `Memorandum on `TAT' which will be directed to all home organizations and associations and will arrange the International Investigation Group, `because Crvenkovski does not trust the investigations of the Macedonian National Bank and the State Institute for Forensic Investigation'. In Bitola these days a group of women clients' activists was formed. They have supported the uniting and in future will more regularly take part in all clients' protests. They have send a warning letter of protest to PM Crvenkovski.

[05] WHAT'S SAUCE FOR THE GOOSE IS NOT SAUCE FOR THE GANDER

As a result of these unfavourable economic movements, the businessmen in the state have been demanding for a longer period of time the denar exchange rate to be made objective in relation to the German mark which has recently been realized with the latest governmental package of measures i.e. with the denar devaluation of 16,1%. In the completely export oriented `Fenimak' from Kavadarci which brings into Macedonia 50 thousand dollars yearly they do not expect in the near future any profit from the devaluation. And this is due to the fact that on account of exported products they import necessary components the price of which is dictated by the London stock market and is paid exclusively in dollars. They also indicate that some profit would appear if they raise the salaries to the 900 employed with a concordant percentage.

Seen through the prism of the interests of `Alkaloid', although they are export oriented, there are claim that they have not gained any profits, what's more they suffered losses because `Alkaloid' from Skopje is selling consumers products to the impoverished buyers who have to bear the burden of the devaluation. They assess that this will decrease their realization for 16% which can hardly be compensated with the realized export on the foreign and limited market and `Alkaloid' will most probably be compelled to introduce restrictions on particular expenses and which is most dangerous, in the field of investments development. Hence they remain in the dilemma whether the devaluation will achieve the objective that it was intended to achieve export increase and add that the effects that will be realized in certain net-exporters from the state will not be long lasting. A reversed process, i.e. effect has been noticed with `Godel' from Skopje. Mostly due to the fact that these letters of credits are with a postponed payment, due to the increased customs duty and the prices towards foreign partners.

However, they are optimists that they will see the positive effects of the measures by the end of the year, when a 20% increase of the new export arrangements are due which should result in higher material-financial effects. According to Dusko Gjorgjievski, the leading man of export in the state, `Jugohrom' from Jegunovce does not doubt the positive effects and counts on an additional harmonizing in the sense of rehabilitation of the consequences that have appeared in the net-positive exporters in the state. This year's export for `Jugohrom' will be the most highly realized one in the last 10 years because the production quality has increased and they have worldly renown buyers.

The commercial manager of "Evropa' from Skopje, Metodija Maholchev, has the opinion that the denar devaluation will be stimulate in their export section, but not in the supply of reproduction materials and materials. The package of measures is greeted by Skopje `OHIS'. This giant has an export larger for 30% in comparison to the import, and according to the general manager, Jorgo Kjuka, from the beginning of this year in the denar devaluation they have found foreign currencies on the domestic market of about 2 million DM.

[06] 18 MILLION DOLLARS GATHERED

On the foreign currency market trading is performed among firms, banks and the MNB, while on the exchange market the purchase and selling takes place among citizens and authorized exchange offices. The surplus of foreign currency are sold by the exchange offices to the MNB and those means are going into the foreign currency reserves handled by the central bank. According to arrangements with the IMF, by the end of next month, the MNB is to purchase from the banks and the exchange offices a total of 15 million dollars. The plan for the third quarterly has already been realized and there are no reasons for the rest of the obligations included in the ESAF arrangement with the IMF to be realized.

The overall effects for the foreign currency reserves from these occurrences on the foreign currency market would have been greater if there had not been the oncoming obligations on paying the installments of certain credits. By the end of this year 26,4 million dollars are to be paid, partially to the Paris Club, partly to multi-lateral creditors. The gap that will appear in the payment balance, besides the expected selling of foreign currencies on the domestic market, should also be filled up with the second installment of the IMF credit amounting up to 13,5 million dollars.

[07] RPNE TO JOIN DPA

[08] WHERE HAS ALL THE MONEY GONE

However, at the surprise of the well- aquatinted with the ongoings of that period, the existing list includes no name a client - Jew from Macedonia. It remains as a dilemma the fact that the list does not convey the name of the state or the origin of the listed clients. Besides, there is the dilemma whether the names of many Jews ending with `-ich' and `- ov' hide Macedonian citizens who at that time in the past had to declare themselves as belonging to other nations. On the occasion the issued list of the Swiss banks there was a reaction of the Jew from Shtip, Mitko Rubisa.

The list from the Swiss bank presents a great mystery , says Rubisa. I had the opportunity to see this list and I am amazed by the fact that it includes no name of any Macedonian Jew. During the 2-nd WW Macedonia was not a state and this was obviously taken in advantage by somebody to wipe away the Macedonian Jews. I will demand through the Jewish community the list to be analyzed and augmented with the names of the Macedonian Jews. And I will also personally insist that the person who initiated the revealing of the accounts in this list is acquainted with the `banking holocaust' of the Macedonian Jews.

[09] PAYMENT BALANCE

Generally speaking, all these factors played an important role in curtailing the export of goods and services, generating high deficits with respect to international trade. The negative balance of the Republic of Macedonia increasingly gained momentum, up to the total of 485 million dollars (13.1% of the GNP) by the end of 1996. Such a deficit in terms of subsistent transactions within the payment flow is non-sustainable in the long run and certainly exceeding the influx of international capital maintainable over a longer period of time. Another indicator of such unfavourable trends in the international trade sector is the extent to which import is covered by export; this figure dropped from 104.2% in 1993 to mere 68.4% in the year 1996. Source: Annual Reports of the NBRM, various editions

[10] INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PAYMENT BALANCE - PART 3 (G. Bishev)

The admission into this organisation is of key importance, as the OECD obliges its members to the executing of certain restructuring procedures (in the fields of economy and legislation). This would expedite the process of achieving a level of economic performance in the Republic of Macedonia, convergent to those of EU member-states. In this sense it would undoubtedly be of particular importance to the Republic of Macedonia to achieve the integration into the international goods and services market via admission into the WTO. Besides the positive effects of the latter (e.g. the status of most privileged trade partners with all the member-states; the positive impact of international competition on the domestic market; the improving of product quality and standardization; the developing of more sophisticated forms of cooperation through joint ventures, production cooperation, technology and know-how transfer, etc.), caution is nevertheless to be advised.

One should bear in mind that due to insufficient product quality and standardization level with respect to Macedonian goods - in addition to all other unfavourable factors affecting the Macedonian economy in this past period - the initial stages of such an integration may lead to a short-term deterioration of the standing of the Macedonian export sector. Nevertheless, our admission into the WTO and the healthy competition this would provide in the long run, clearly embodies the only qualitative approach to improving the quality of Macedonian products, i.e. the including of the Macedonian economy into the egalitarian contest on the international market.

In terms of creating an economic basis for Macedonia's integration within the EU, key relevance is being ascribed to the ratification of free trade zone agreements with particular countries exhibiting a similar level of economic performance in order to boost international trade. Such treaties usually result in a solid trade volume. Thus in 1996 agreements outlining the suspending of customs duties and the gradual transformation into a completely free trade zone regimes have been signed with Slovenia and FR Yugoslavia. Similar agreements are to be ratified with Bulgaria and Albania (in their first stage), and further on with Greece, Turkey, Hungary and several other countries.

(To be continued...)

mils news 06 August, 1997

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