Philip Gordon: The Security Domain: A European Perspective
ABSTRACT

US and European views of Greece-Turkey differ, and have further diverged since the end of the Cold War. Increasingly, the US sees south Balkan issues through the prism of Middle Eastern geopolitics whereas Europe views the region through the prism of the EU. As a result of these differing perceptions, European and US policies tend to diverge as well. Since the overwhelming US strategic interest in the region is a stable, pro-Western Turkey, Americans place high priority on integrating Turkey into the Western Community. Since Europeans see Turkey primarily through the prism of the EU, their policies are more attentive to Greek interests, and tend to exclude Turkey. There are legitimate reasons for EU policies toward Turkey, but their result is that EU relations with Turkey are poor. In the Aegean dispute, most Europeans tend to support the Greek position for all the above reasons, but EU support for Greece in this area should not be exaggerated. For all the talk of an EU Common Foreign and Security Policy, if Greece and Turkey were to go to war over territory, EU military support for Greece would be unlikely. The most salient Greece-Turkey issue where Europe is concerned is Cyprus, and in particular the EU agreement to begin accession negotiations with the island. This agreement was designed to entice the parties on Cyprus to come to a prior agreement, but it is in fact having the opposite effect, and Turkish Cypriots are unlikely to make concessions even for the "carrot" of EU membership. (And Ankara is unlikely to pressure them to do so.) As a result, the EU will eventually either have to abandon its plan to incorporate Cyprus, or proceed with negotiations with the Greek Cypriots only, neither of which approaches is without high risk.

Philip Gordon: Biographical Note