Tozun Bahcheli: The Quest for a Cyprus Settlement and Implications for Greek-Turkish Relations
ABSTRACT

Greek-Turkish relations have become less stable since the end of the Cold War, and there are doubts whether the United States and NATO will be able to restrain Athens and Ankara as they confront each other over the Aegean and Cyprus. In contrast to the Aegean issues, the 'Cyprus problem' has become thoroughly internationalized, with ample third-party involvement in the quest to find a settlement on the island. Athens and the Greek Cypriot authorities have collaborated in encouraging third-party involvement, particularly of the EU and the United Nations. Ankara and the Turkish Cypriot leadership, on the other hand, prefer to see the continuation of the status quo on the island, and have been deeply suspicious of international involvement, particularly of the EU. In recent years, the EU has emerged as an important and potentially decisive actor in the Cyprus issue. However, the decision by the EU to begin accession talks with the Greek Cypriot-controlled Republic of Cyprus in 1998 has been denounced by the Turkish Cypriot leadership and Ankara. The Cyprus-EU issue has become an increasingly divisive issue between the island communities, and has also pitted Athens and Ankara against one another. Although there are some groups that counsel non-confrontational policies in both Greece and Turkey, neither Athens nor Ankara see any important incentive to revise their Cyprus policies. Given these circumstances, it is unrealistic to anticipate a settlement of the Cyprus issue in the foreseeable future; the more attainable near-term goal will be to decrease tensions and build greater confidence in Cyprus and between Athens and Ankara. In this connection, new ideas circulating in Washington to bring about meaningful arms control between Greece and Turkey (encompassing Cyprus too), may help generate more stability in the eastern Mediterranean.

Tozum Bahcheli: Biographical Note