A Journal of Foreign Policy Issues
Albania has entered a very difficult period which first found expression in the people's explosive reaction, forcing the Democratic Party's government into a deadlock, and subsequent resignation. The agreement on the formation of a new government, in which most of the major political forces of the country are participating, is partially responsible for abating the escalation of the crisis. The origins of the crisis, without underestimating the responsibilities of the political forces of the country, can to a great extent be located in the era of the Hoxha regime. Regarding future prospects of the country, the international community, which has already backed up Albania in her effort to avoid a civil war, appears prepared to continue its support. However, the real responsibility for an improvement of the economy and the polity is with the people and the political forces of the country. The latter must overcome "political differences", foster "collaboration" in all aspects, and therefore offer the Albanian people the promise of a better future.
The Development of the Crisis
The collapse of the "Pyramides" caused the Albanians
to take to the streets in an effort to salvage whatever they could
from their invested money and property. Accustomed to relying
heavily upon incurred interest from the so-called "investment
companies", they were suddenly thrown into a new situation,
i.e. the loss, not only of incurred interest but also of their
invested capital. Their deprivation is evident when consideration
is given to the significant gap between the salaries earned by
those individuals who do not comprise the "unemployment
army" and the continuously increasing cost of living in
the country.
When the Albanians realized that satisfactory compensations could
not be expected their, reaction unsurprisingly escalated, into
an open "revolt", with economic as well as political
demands. Yesterday's ordinary citizens have initiated attacks
on the state and have destroyed its property. As a consequence
the central state authorities have lost control over a significant
part, mainly in the southern areas, of the country. The looting
of police stations, and later of army barracks resulted in the
acquisition of arms by the insurgents.(1) While the threat of civil
war was imminent, the political forces of the country, with the
aid of the international community, reached an agreement for the
formation of a new government in which most of the major parties
participated. Furthemore, it was agreed that Parliamentary Elections
will take place in June. These developments contributed to the
abatement of the crisis, and though life in Albania has a long
way to go before it is normalized, it seems that civil war has
probably been avoided.
The Causes of the Crisis
The deep roots of the crisis Albania is now facing can be located in the past, with reference to political, economic, as well as social factors. The prolonged Hoxha dictatorship resulted, in Albania's exclusion from the political, social as well as economic developments which took place during the same period in other parts of Europe.
Subsequently, Albanian society was completely inexperienced with
respect to the new economic system and the open market economy.
In light of the serious structural problems which the Albanian
economy was facing, the economic transformation was an ambitious
target to satisfy. Moreover, the Albanian people were also inexperienced
with respect to a multiparty political system and democratic institutions.
This would to a great extent explain the loose party alignment
and the extended realignment which in all likelihood will carry
on as a visible part of the political life of the country. To
this rule only very few exceptions have been noticed among certain
political forces, owing to their strong affiliation with certain
sections of the population to historical factors.
The above mentioned could also partially explain the stalemate
of the political life of the country since the May 1996, Parliamentary
Elections. The latter became a threshold in the political development
of Albania.(2) Most of the opposition forces did not recognize that
the election process, which marked an overwhelming victory for
the Democratic Party, was conducted in a democratic manner(3), and
most of them were subsequently devoted to an effort to establish
the truth of their allegations regarding the lawlessness which
characterized the Parliamentary Elections. However, their tactic,
which included first the mobilization of their supporters in the
organisation of protest rallies(4), second, their refusal to recognise
the results of the elections, and third, their abstention from
parliamentary activities, while high ranking opposition party
officials were visiting foreign capitals in order to advance their
views, was marked with limited success. The DPÕs government
refused to confer with the opposition forces toward the resolution
of the political impasse, and moved towards the scheduling of
the Local Elections on October 20(5). The opposition parties faced
a significant dilemma regarding their participation in the election
process; their participation could be misinterpreted as their
recognition of the May process, yet, their abstention could be
ill-received and could thereby invite accusations placing the
threat of political stalemate on their shoulders. Though they
finally participated, the political stalemate remained unresolved.
(6) It could, therefore, be argued that the dramatic developments
that have been taking place in Albania since the beginning of
1997 reached the peak of a crisis which, in fact, began many months
earlier.
The dramatic collapse of the "Pyramides", a development that did not erupt suddenly, had been anticipated by some international organizations. The International Monetary Fund, had officially made the then Albanian government aware of the facts, which indeed lead to the crisis, since the Fall of 1996. However, for political reasons, the government of the Democratic Party and its allies, evaded informing the Albanian people about the possible consequences of its "investment" activities on the one hand, and on the other, permitted the "companies" to carry on operating. Regarding the rest of the political forces of the country, they too share part of the responsibility because they were unable to make the ordinary citizen aware of the risks involved with respect to the "Pyramides".
Future Perspectives
The "Transition Period" has thus far proved to be a protracted proccess for Albania, the poorest country of Europe. That which must be swiftly settled is on the one hand the method by which Albanians can overcome the crisis and establish the foundation for a better future, and on the other, the contribution to be offered by the international community for the realization of these set objectives.
The Albanian citizens should not be permitted to loose confidence
in the political parties and institutions, for this holds a certain
danger for the future of their country. It is up to the political
forces of Albania to prove that they can be trusted to deliver
its people out of the crisis and the first challenge would be
the organization of the coming Parliamentary Elections in a democratic
manner.
However, the elections process could be jeopardised given the
fact that most of the armed dissidents do not appear to have been
thus far persuaded to abandon their arms. Give that a large number
of people are in possession of arms, the majority of the population
in certain areas, particularly in the Southern and some Central
parts of the country, it is clear that the task of disarmament
constitutes a formidable undertaking. Consequently, the foremost
political responsibility is to convince the armed citizens that
the difficulties of their country can only be successfully solved
in a peaceful and cooperative way. To this end, the conduct of
democratic and free elections will be a crucial factor in the
country's political development given that they would provide
the political forces of the country with a new impetus. The international
community is ready and willing to help (OSCE), but the burden
lies with the Albanian political forces.
Furthermore, regarding the economic development of the country,
the structural problems of the Albanian economy(7) will in all likelihood
continue to jeopardize many of the efforts undertaken by the Albanians.
One should not, therefore, await the advent of any miracles, which
is precisely what the Albanian people must realize. It is the
government and generally the political forces of the country which
are being called to carry the burden of persuading the Albanians
that this is a reality which they can not escape.
The International Community's Role
The international community, in its effort to avoid the escalation
of the crisis, which could lead to a civil war, and could also
jeopardize the stability in the broader area, appears ready to
contribute to the efforts being initiated by Albania for a better
future. Humanitarian aid is already arriving in Albania and a
multinational force, requested by its government following a consensus
on behalf of all the political forces, will secure its distribution.
The international community is also ready to contribute to the
reconstruction of the Albanian economy via specific and immediate,
as well as mid and long term financial aid.
To this end the contribution of neighboring countries, such as
Greece, should be deemed vital. Given that Albania and Greece
have aptly developed good neighborly relations(8) (Greece is especially
devoted to this effort also given the existence of a sizable indigenous
Greek minority in Albania(9)), the latter's role could be
of increased significance. Regarding the recent crisis confronting
Albania, Greece along with the rest of its partners in the European
Union, has been actively providing assistance with respect to
the political crisis and its containment, and latterly to the
elaboration of short as well as mid and long term plans. In this
sense concrete and expeditious steps, such as humanitarian aid
and the treatment of the many wounded in hospitals, as well as
aid for the reorganization of the Albanian army and police, were
taken. Furthermore, Greece has urged its counterparts in the European
Union for the need of an emergency economic aid plan, while on
a bilateral base it has already offered a loan of approximately
80 million US $ to Albania.
Concluding Remarks
Fortunately, the likelihood of a civil war in Albania has been minimized. The Parliamentary elections, scheduled to take place in June will hopefully provide the political forces of the country with a new impetus which will in all likelihood contribute to the normalization of Albania's political life. Furtermore, the Democratization process should be expeditiously reinforced while the function of Democratic Institutions should become the core of future political developments. To this end the role of the international community should be significantly contributive.
The international community and especially the neighboring countries have a vested interest in helping Albania to respond to the repercussions of the political and socioeconomic crisis, otherwise the country in question could enter a long period of instability which in turn could have a negative effect on the broader Balkan peninsula. Consequently, the EU should actively assist Albania (as well as some of the other countries of the area) in its efforts towards political and economic stability and development.
1. According to the Albanian authorities the stolen arms amount
to more than three hundred thousand.
2. Die Albanischen Parlamentswahlen vom 26. Mai 1996: Gebursstunde
eines autoritaren Systems?, Michael Schmidt-neke, Sudost Europa,
Heft 8, 1996, p. 567-588.
3. The election monitoring teams of the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe made references in their reports to
many miscarriages and malfactions during the election campaign
as well as the election process itself, which were retained in
the organizationÕs final report. OSCE Report, Observation
of parliamentary Elections Held in the Republic of Albania, May
26 and June 2, 1996, Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe, OSCE June 12, 1996.
For the Parliamentary Elections of May, 1996, see also Resolution
Regarding the Elections in Albania, European Parliament, June
20, 1996 and Statement of Concern: Violations in the Albanian
Elections, Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, May 30, 1996.
4. During a protest rally organized in Tirana, on May 28th, the police had brutally beaten a number of protesters, amongst whom there were leaders of the opposition. See Election Fraud Sparks Protests, Fabian Schmidt, Transition, June 28, 1996, p. 38-39, 63.
5. For the climate prior to the Local Elections, see Party Politics
Rule the Albanian Press, Fabian Schmidt, Transition, October 18,
1996, p. 35-37.
6. Three days before the conduct of the Local Elections, the ODHIR
withdrew due to disagreements with the Albanian authorities regarding
issues, such as, the number of the monitoring teams, etc.. See
Press Release, Office for Democratic Institutions, OSCE, Warsaw,
October 15, 1996.
7. Albania 1996, An Investment Guide, National Bank of Greece,
Athens, 1997, (in Greek).
8. Albania and Greek-Albanian Relations, Ilias A. Antonopoulos,
Okeanida, Athens, 1996 (in Greek); Greek-Albanian Relations, Special
edition, Economic Courier, Athens, February 13, 1997, (in Greek).
9. For the Greek minority in Albania, see The Greeks in Albania,
Th. Veremis, Th. Couloumbis, and I. Nikolakopoulos (eds.), Sideris
and ELIAMEP, Athens, 1995, (in Greek) and The Greek Minority in
Albania, A Documentary Record, (1921-93), Institute for Balkan
Studies, Thessaloniki, 1994.